Survey of US Voters Candidate Smith June 2014

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Tyrone Wade
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1 Survey of US Voters Candidate June 2014

2 Methodology Three surveys of U.S. voters conducted in late 2013 Two online surveys of voters, respondents reached using recruit-only online panel of adults nationwide, screened for self-identified registered voters. Data shown for web survey combines these two samples with a few exceptions. December 9-19, 2013 N=1,200 September 18-30, 2013 N=1,200 One telephone survey of 800 U.S. voters, December 13-19, 2013; using random sample drawn from voter lists Please note that due to rounding, percentages may not add up to exactly 100% Page 2

3 Initial Description of Candidate Online Surveys Below is a statement about a possible candidate for public office. For this survey, this person is going to be called Candidate. Candidate says our broken political system is failing all of us. Special interests and lobbyists control the politicians and the politicians keep getting elected because they divide us against each other and make single issue promises to buy our support. says we can t change anything with the usual politics, and the usual politicians, and the usual interest groups. We need new leaders from mainstream America, like Candidate, who take on the political elites and special interests and put the American people in charge again. No one candidate is going to solve all of our problems. It s not about Candidate, it s about you. The question is not only what will Candidate do, but what are we all prepared to do together? None of this can get fixed without each and every one of us taking responsibility to do our part. After hearing this, do you now have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, strongly unfavorable opinion of Candidate? Page 3

4 Initial Statements Phone Survey Voter response to Candidate statements is overwhelmingly positive. Strongly agree Somewhat agree Don't know Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Total Agree The power of ordinary people to control our country is getting weaker every day, as political leaders on both sides fight to protect their own 63% 26% 5% 3% 3% 89% Candidate will get both parties working together, because that s the job of a real leader. 59% 25% 6% 5% 5% 84% Candidate says that the poison of political corruption is eating away at American Democracy and self-government. The ruling political class, 53% 31% 9% 4% 4% 83% says we can t change anything with the usual politics, and the usual politicians, and the usual interest groups. We need new leaders from 51% 32% 9% 3% 4% 84% Candidate says we need to fix our broken political system first, before we can do anything about solving other important issues. 43% 31% 15% 8% 3% 74% Candidate s beliefs are not based on liberal or conservative ideas, just fundamental American common sense. 43% 31% 9% 6% 10% 75% Next I m going to read you some statements from a possible candidate for public office. For this survey, this person is going to be called Candidate. For each statement, please tell me if you agree or disagree. Page 4

5 Initial Favorable Rating Voters initial response to is strongly favorable. Strongly Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don't know Total Unfavorable Total Favorable Dec Tel 30% 52% 8% 10% 82% All Web 19% 55% 16% 10% 74% After hearing this, do you now have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, strongly unfavorable opinion of Candidate? Page 5

6 Initial Vote for President and Congress Voters are ready for a new candidate for Congress and President. Someone Else 17% 20% 15% 27% 13% 16% 12% 22% Don't know 68% 52% 75% 62% Dec Tel All Web Dec Tel All Web Vote for President Vote for Senate (Dec Phone survey US House) Page 6

7 Detailed Agenda/Description of Candidate Online Surveys Below is some more information about Candidate. Candidate will get both parties working together, because that s the job of a real leader. will balance the budget within four years, by balancing sacrifices; will cut regulations on small business to get them growing and hiring again; and radically simplify the tax code. In addition, will do whatever it takes to achieve American energy independence without giving up the gains we ve made on the environment. will maintain our military strength, and support our friends, but keep us out of foreign engagements as much as possible. But we need to fix our broken political system first, before we can do anything about these other important issues. To do that, Candidate will start with these 5 important changes: Enact tough new limits on politicians and their staffers taking lobbying positions in Washington -- For every year you spend in Congress and government, you can t lobby for two. We must break the revolving door between Congress and lobbying firms. Require every group that lobbies the government to disclose all of its donors. does not want to limit free speech, but the people have a right to know who is speaking. Require Congress to pass a budget every year, or they don t get paid. will balance the budget within four years, by balancing sacrifices. Require every bill in Congress to have a list, in clear English, spelling out every "special deal." No more midnight deals, which no one has time to read, to save some big corporation millions of dollars. Require every bill in Congress to be posted on the Internet so anyone can comment for at least a week. Members of Congress and the Administration don't have to follow what we say, but they have to give us a chance to speak. Once we fix the system, real leaders who speak for the American people can work together and have a real conversation about how to solve problems for our country. Page 7

8 Platform and Reforms Phone Survey Voters strongly support s reform agenda. will require Congress to pass an actual budget every year, or they don t get paid; and require members of Congress to live under the same laws that they pass for the Strongly support Somewhat support 84% Total Support 11% 95% says the econ. policies of both parties have failed; only way to strengthen the middle class is to have econ. policies that grow the econ. and provide real jobs and 68% 26% 94% Will require every bill in Congress to have a list spelling out every "special deal and to be posted online for a week. No more midnight deals for spec.interests which no one reads. 70% 22% 93% will maintain our military strength, and support our friends, but keep us out of foreign engagements as much as possible. 66% 26% 92% says that we need a more innovative strategy in healthcare that focuses not just on treating diseases but on curing them, like we did with polio in the 1950s. 65% 28% 92% To break the revolving door between Congress and lobbying firms, Candidate will enact tough new limits on politicians and their staffers taking lobbying positions in 67% 24% 91% I m going to read you a series of possible positions Candidate might take. Please tell me if you support or oppose each one. Page 8

9 Platforms and Reforms, Continued Phone Survey Voters strongly support s reform agenda. Strongly support Somewhat support Total Support will do whatever it takes to achieve American energy independence without giving up the gains we ve made on the environment. 60% 31% 91% will balance the budget within 4 years by balancing sacrifices; will cut regulations on small business to get them hiring again, and radically simplify the tax code. 56% 31% 87% would restore the former laws that stopped banks and Wall Street from engaging in the financial excess and speculation that led to the financial crisis five years ago. 60% 27% 87% Schools are failing despite massive spending... need to radically reform so that the quality of education is not dependent on which neighborhood you live in. 64% 23% 87% Complete overhaul of the federal contracting system after Obamacare website fiasco. It is crony-capitalism at its worst,should be criminal penalties, including prison. 50% 27% 77% I m going to read you a series of possible positions Candidate might take. Please tell me if you support or oppose each one. Page 9

10 Informed Favorable Rating - strongly favorable skyrockets after voters learn more. Strongly Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don't know Total Unfavorable Initial Favorable Dec Tel 30% 52% 8% 10% Combined Web 19% 55% 16% 10% Favorable After Info Dec Tel 48% 42% 3% 7% Combined Web 41% 40% 11% 7% After hearing this, do you now have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or a strongly unfavorable opinion of Candidate? Page 10

11 Informed Vote for President and Congress When voters hear more about, support increases sharply. 17% 20% 15% 27% 12% 14% 13% 16% 11% 21% Someone Else 12% 22% 9% 11% 8% 17% 68% 52% 78% 65% Don't know 75% 62% 83% 72% Dec Tel Combined Web Initial Vote Dec Tel Combined Web Informed Vote President Dec Tel Combined Web Dec Tel Combined Web Initial Vote Informed Vote U.S. Senate (Phone US House) If Candidate ran for [President/Congress/US Senate] would you vote for Candidate or someone else? Page 11

12 Head to Head with Clinton and Christie leads in a matchup with real opponents. Christie 33% 27% Christie 9% 13% 12% 17% Don't know/ Other Independent 11% 22% 15% 9% Don't know/ Other 55% 42% Clinton 41% 42% Clinton 24% 28% Dec Tel Combined Web Dec Tel Combined Web Vote for President Unnamed Independent Vote for President With as Independent Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 12

13 Vote Progression Dec Web Survey wins as a Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent. 40% 14% 21% 22% 26% 20% 18% 20% 19% 28% 13% Clinton Christie 16% 22% 11% 17% 20% 24% 18% 17% 18% 16% 27% 4% 13% Someone Else 52% 65% 57% 56% 61% 42% Don't know 62% 72% 62% 59% 66% Initial After Info as Dem as Rep as Ind Head- To-Head Initial After Info as Dem as Rep as Ind President U.S. Senate If Candidate ran for [President/Senate] would you vote for Candidate or someone else? Page 13

14 Partisan Among Democrats Only: 72%(Pres) and 76%(Sen) of Dems would vote for a Democrat Even about 1/3 would vote for a Republican for President or Senate Among Republicans Only: 84%(Pres) 85%(Sen) of Republicans would for a GOP Even 43% would vote for a Democratic for President; and 48% for a Democratic for Senate. Among Independents Only: A solid majority for either a Democratic or Republican for President or Senate. Stronger support for Republican than Democratic Page 14

15 Voter Segmentation 28% are solid base supporters in the web survey, and more than 40% on the phone. Base % Soft % Other Swing % Oppose % Base % Soft % Other Swing % Oppose % 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 15

16 Voter Segmentation Collapsed Support for is quite strong, with greater intensity seen in the phone survey. Base Soft Other Swing Oppose Total Voters 68% Dec Tel 43% 25% 15% 17% Total Voters 53% Combined Web 28% 25% 23% 24% Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 16

17 Stress Test (Phone Survey Only)

18 Hypothetical Attacks on Few voters are immediately opposed to a candidate with past problems. Some opponents of Candidate are pointing out that (Split A only) had a contentious divorce, and has confessed to having had a substance abuse problem earlier in life. (Split B only) was once forced to pay penalties and interest for late tax payments, and at one point went through a bankruptcy. After hearing this, which is closer to your opinion? Given what I have heard about, this is not the kind of candidate I would consider supporting. This information has no effect on my opinion of one way or the other. These kinds of attacks are what the political class uses to keep regular people out of politics. If anything, these attacks would make me more inclined to consider voting for. Less inclined to support (Don't know) No effect on my opinion More inclined to support OVERALL 15% 11% 47% 28% Split A- Divorce and drugs 14% 9% 49% 27% Split B - Taxes and bankruptcy 15% 12% 44% 29% Page 18

19 Favorable Ratings After Negatives favorable ratings remain strong after negative information. Strongly Favorable Somewhat Favorable Don't know Total Unfavorable Total Fav: 82% Initial 30% 52% 8% 10% Total Fav: 90% After Info 48% 42% 3% 7% Total Fav: 79% After Negatives 30% 49% 5% 15% After hearing this, do you now have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or a strongly unfavorable opinion of Candidate? Page 19

20 Vote After Negatives After voters hear attacks on, support remains strong, returning to its initial level. 17% 15% 12% 11% 22% 11% Someone Else 13% 9% 12% 8% 16% 9% 68% 78% 67% Don't know 75% 83% 74% Initial After info President After negatives Initial After info Congress After negatives If Candidate ran for President/Congress would you vote for Candidate or someone else? Page 20

21 Discussion

22 Appendix A: Head to Head Vote by Subgroups

23 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Gender Men are more likely to support. Other Christie 2% 4% 0% 7% 4% 10% 15% 12% 17% 30% 25% 31% Clinton 61% 44% 49% 40% Men (48%) Men (48%) Women (52%) Women (52%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 23

24 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Party The phone survey shows stronger support among independents. Other Christie 3% 0% 2% 2% 5% 1% 5% 7% 11% 19% 13% 0% 31% 18% 56% 60% 4% Clinton 65% 49% 69% 51% 30% 26% Dem (33%) Dem (33%) Ind (41%) Ind (41%) Rep (26%) Rep (26%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 24

25 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Age Younger voters support in greater numbers, especially in the phone poll. Other Christie 0% 6% 20% 4% 2% 5% 9% 11% 11% 17% 28% 29% 0% 3% 9% 16% 31% 28% Clinton 61% 43% 58% 39% 49% 43% <35 (19%) <35 (25%) (37%) (31%) 55+ (44%) 55+ (44%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 25

26 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Region is strongest in the Northeast in the phone survey, in the web survey stronger in the Midwest and South. Other Christie 1% 2% 1% 13% 7% 4% 1% 8% 5% 1% 4% 9% 14% 11% 14% 13% 18% 24% 27% 23% 25% 33% 26% 31% Clinton 60% 37% 53% 45% 54% 43% 52% 41% NE (18%) NE (18%) Dec Tel- Midwest (24%) Midwest (24%) South (37%) South (37%) West (21%) West (21%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 26

27 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Race/Ethnicity is stronger with white voters, especially in the phone survey. Other Christie 3% 5% 7% 15% 27% 31% 3% 0% 2% 1% 4% 2% 8% 11% 4% 15% 18% 25% 45% 25% 45% 10% 8% 21% Clinton 49% 38% 41% 29% 58% 45% 53% 45% Latino (9%) Latino(9%) Black (14%) Black (14%) White (68%) White (68%) Other (7%) Other (6%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 27

28 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Education is stronger with voters who have less than a 4 year degree. Other Christie 1% 5% 1% 3% 13% 7% 13% 14% 18% 24% 26% 31% Clinton 60% 45% 53% 39% Non Coll Grad (53%) Non Coll Grad (53%) Coll Grad + (47%) Coll Grad + (47%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 28

29 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Ideology does best with conservative voters. Other Christie 1% 2% 2% 7% 4% 11% 5% 16% 23% 39% 54% 13% 0% 6% 26% 5% 8% 23% Clinton 45% 32% 61% 49% 51% 40% 1-3 Liberal (24%) 1-3 Liberal (30%) 5-7 Consv. (52%) 5-7 Consv. (44%) Mod/Dk (24%) Mod/DK (25%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 29

30 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Alienation Scale draws stronger support from more alienated voters. Other Christie 0% 2% 1% 8% 7% 5% 1% 4% 2% 12% 8% 5% 14% 12% 13% 15% 16% 23% 20% 27% 22% 38% 40% 40% Clinton 68% 57% 59% 46% 45% 32% 32% 19% Extremely Alienated (33%) Extremely Alienated (29%) Very Alienated (26%) Very Alienated (32%) Somewhat Alienated (25%) Somewhat Alienated (27%) Not Alienated (15%) Not Alienated (13%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 30

31 Head to Head Vote by Subgroups: Partisan Scale draws stronger support from the least partisan voters. Other Christie Clinton 0% 1% 0% 3% 2% 10% 18% 10% 7% 17% 10% 22% 47% 32% 59% 66% 35% 35% 39% 19% 6% 8% 13% 53% Partisan (28%) Partisan (14%) Non-Partisan (30%) Non-Partisan (46%) Very Non-PartisanVery Non-Partisan (42%) (40%) Who would you vote for if the 2016 election for President was held today and the candidates were Page 31

32 Appendix B: Voter Segmentation by Subgroups

33 Segmentation by Subgroup: Gender Men in the telephone survey are disproportionately in the base. 72% Voter Other Swing Oppose 65% 53% 52% 12% 16% 24% 23% 17% 18% 23% 26% Men (48%) Men (48%) Women (52%) Women (52%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 33

34 Segmentation by Subgroup: Party Republicans are more likely to fall in the base, especially in the phone survey. Voter Other Swing Oppose 74% 80% 62% 61% 51% 40% 37% 28% 22% 23% 11% 15% 25% 18% 12% 7% 19% 19% Dem (33%) Dem (33%) Ind (41%) Ind (41%) Rep (26%) Rep (26%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 34

35 Segmentation by Subgroup: Age Younger voters are more likely to be in base in the phone survey. 74% Voter Other Swing 69% Oppose 65% 51% 49% 56% 14% 12% 21% 28% 16% 15% 26% 25% 14% 21% 22% 22% <35 (19%) <35 (25%) (37%) (31%) 55+ (44%) 55+ (44%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 35

36 Segmentation by Subgroup: Region Midwest voters are more likely to be in the base. 75% Voter Other Swing Oppose 68% 68% 64% 50% 53% 53% 54% 12% 13% 25% 25% 16% 16% 24% 23% 18% 15% 25% 22% 20% 16% 24% 22% NE (18%) NE (18%) Midwest (24%) Midwest (24%) South (37%) South (37%) West (21%) West (21%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 36

37 Segmentation by Subgroup: Race/Ethnicity White and Latino voters are most likely to be in base. Voter Other Swing Oppose 72% 64% 55% 59% 55% 60% 48% 40% 34% 15% 21% 25% 24% 20% 17% 26% 15% 14% 23% 22% 14% 25% 28% 24% Latino (9%) Latino (9%) Black (14%) Black (14%) White (68%) White (68%) Other (9%) Other (9%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 37

38 Segmentation by Subgroup: Education Less educated voters are more likely to be in base. 73% Voter Other Swing Oppose 63% 56% 49% 12% 15% 22% 23% 18% 19% 25% 27% Non Coll Grad (53%) Non Coll Grad (53%) Coll Grad + (47%) Coll Grad + (47%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 38

39 Segmentation by Subgroup: Ideology Voter Conservative voters are more likely to be in base. Other Swing Oppose 73% 67% 58% 59% 51% 44% 15% 28% 23% 32% 13% 14% 20% 21% 16% 15% 28% 21% 1-3 Liberal (24%) 1-3 Liberal (30%) 5-7 Consv. (52%) 5-7 Consv. (44%) Mod/Dk (24%) Mod/Dk (25%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 39

40 Segmentation by Subgroup: Alienation Scale More alienated voters are more likely to be in base. 81% Voter 69% Other Swing 74% Oppose 56% 61% 45% 32% 42% 38% 32% 45% 12% 7% 18% 13% 12% 14% 23% 20% 21% 18% 24% 20% 23% Extremely Alienated (33%) Extremely Alienated (29%) Very Alienated (26%) Very Alienated (32%) Somewhat Alienated (25%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Somewhat Alienated (27%) Not Alienated (15%) Not Alienated (13%) Page 40

41 Segmentation by Subgroup: Partisanship Less partisan voters are more likely to be in base. Voter Other Swing Oppose 73% 74% 54% 52% 58% 44% 37% 28% 18% 19% 17% 11% 22% 26% 12% 14% 26% 16% Partisan (28%) Partisan (14%) Non-Partisan (30%) Non-Partisan (46%) Very Non-Partisan (42%) Very Non-Partisan (40%) Collapsed 55 point scale (web) / 43 point scale (phone) of Base to Oppose Created by combining responses to Vote Questions Page 41

Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014

Survey of US Voters Issues and Attitudes June 2014 Methodology Three surveys of U.S. voters conducted in late 2013 Two online surveys of voters, respondents reached using recruit-only online panel of adults