National Survey of Current Political Situation in Pakistan. June 13-July 04, 2018

Transcription

1 National Survey of Current Political Situation in Pakistan June 13-July 04, 2018

2 About IPOR: IPOR Consulting is an independent research institution with ability to gauge public opinion at its best on social issues, democracy and service delivery throughout Pakistan. IPOR is registered under section 32 of companies act, 1984 (XLVII of 1984) with the Security and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP). As member of ESOMAR, the information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Disclaimer: The results in this Report do not represent views held by IPOR. The results only represent public opinion, computed on the basis of views expressed by respondents selected through the procedure outlined in the methodology section of this Report. IPOR cannot be held liable to the users of this data. Any part of this publication can be used or cited with a clear reference to IPOR. IPOR Consulting Office #1-4, 2nd Floor, Soan Complex, Soan Gardens, Islamabad Express Way, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan Tel: + 92 (51) / +92(51) URL: 2

3 Period : June 13-July 04, 2018 Survey Methodology Survey Type : Eligibility : In-person, in-home interviews. Age 18+. The survey is a national representative sample of voting-age residents of Pakistan. Total Respondents : n = 3,735 Response Rate : Approximately 7 Margin of Error : The confidence interval is not more than ± at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95%. This survey is conducted in collaboration with Global Strategic Partners (GSP) and Data throughout Pakistan was collected by the IPOR Consulting (Pvt.)Ltd. A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province and divided into rural and urban categories. In the third stage, each district was further stratified by union councils. The sample was distributed in 69 Districts of all four provinces of Pakistan (except the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Chitral). The sample post-weighted by province to make it representative of the national population. The confidence interval does not take into account design effect. Interview teams were comprised of both males and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. The Probability-Proportional-to-Size (PPS) method was used to select localities and household were selected through Random walk method. By which starting point was determined and by following the Left Hand Rule (LHR) pattern every nth household were selected for interviews. The Kish Grid was used to select respondents 18 years and older within these randomly selected household. The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error. 3

4 Demographics Gender Male 60% / Female 40% Location Urban 39% / Rural 6 Age % % Education Illiterate 28% Primary 15% Middle 15% Secondary 2 Intermediate 10% Graduate 08% Master s 0 Province Punjab+ICT 55% Sindh 2 KP 15% Baluchistan 06% Language Urdu 1 Punjabi 39% Pashto 15% Sindhi 1 Seraiki 1 Hindko 06% Balochi 0 Other 0 4

5 Acronyms All Pakistan Muslim League APML Awami National Party ANP Balochistan National Party BNP Benazir Income Support Program BISP Federally Administered Tribal Areas FATA Jamaat-e-Islami JI Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Faction JUI-F Khyber Pakhtunkhwa KP Muttahida Quami Movement MQM Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party PKMAP Pakistan Muslim League-Functional PML-F Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz PML-N Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid PML-Q Pakistan Peoples Party ` PPP Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf PTI Tehrik-i-Taliban (Pakistan) TTP Don t Know/No Response DK/NR 5

6 Indicators IPOR Consulting 6

7 Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Right Direction 35% DK/NR Wrong Direction 6 7

8 Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? (Slide 2/3 ) (Province) (Location) 0% DK/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction 6 75% 59% 58% 37% Rural 6 38% 25% 38% 4 67% Urban 3 Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR 8

9 Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? (Slide 3/3 ) (Age-Group) (Gender) Female 26% 7 59% 65% 6 65% Male 40% 58% 39% 3 35% & Above Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR 9

10 Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? 70% % 50% 40% 36% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% November 2017 July 2018 Right Direction Wrong Direction DK/NR 10

11 Right Direction [Of the 35% that respond Right direction] Why do you think that things are head in the right direction? (Open-ended) Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Better Law & Order Overall Stability 2 3 Right Direction 35% DK/NR Development Work Electricity Projects Good Governance 5% 5% 15% Empowerment of Institutions Control on Corruption Wrong Direction 6 Progress of Economy Opration Radd-ul-Fasad Low Inflation Health Facilities Other DK/NR 11

12 Wrong Direction [Of the 6 that respond Wrong direction] Why do you think that things are head in the wrong direction? (Open-ended) Thinking about the country as a whole, would you say that things are heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Corruption High Inflation Unemployment 10% 18% 20% Right Direction 35% Wrong Direction 6 DK/NR Political Instability Loadshedding Bad Performance of Govt. Poverty Bad Economy Lack of Drinking Water Bad Law & Order Tention among Institutions Bad Policies of Govt. 5% 9% 9% 7% Terrorism Disqualification of Nawaz Sharif Injustice Agricultural Issues Other DK/NR 12

13 Thinking now about the following indicators, how would you rate the situation in Pakistan with each? Good Bad DK/NR Political Stability 3 6 Law and Order 7 27% Security 7 27% Economy 3 66% Load shedding 37% 6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13

14 Thinking again about these indicators, in the next year do you think that the situation is going to be better, worse, or about the same? Better Same Worse DK/NR Political Stability 48% 1 30% 8% Law and Order Security Economy 45% 2 2 8% Load shedding 46% 20% 28% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14

15 Approval Ratings IPOR Consulting 15

16 How would do you rate the overall performance of the PML-N national federal government? 57% 40% July % 40% 2 16% 57% 40% November % 40% 2 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 16

17 How would you rate the years performance of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif? 69% 26% July % 40% 17% 9% 5% 69% 2 November % 4 1 9% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 17

18 How would you rate the performance of Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif? (Punjab Respondents Only) 76% 2 July % 39% 1 8% 8 16% November % 4 10% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 18

19 How would you rate the performance of the PTI Government in KPK? 57% 29% July % 38% 20% 9% 1 57% 26% November % 38% 15% 1 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 19

20 How would you rate the performance of the PTI Government in KPK? (KP Respondents Only) 6 3 July % 35% 19% 1 79% 18% November % 2 10% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 20

21 Thinking now about the following political personalities, would you say you liked or disliked them when you think about them as people, not in terms of their policies or politics? Shahbaz Sharif 6 36% Imran Khan 5 39% 7% Nawaz Sharif 47% 49% Shahid Khaqan Abbasi 4 5 6% Maryam Nawaz 40% 5 9% Bilawal Bhutto 38% 60% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Like Dislike DK/NR 21

22 Top Issues IPOR Consulting 22

23 In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Pakistan? (Open-ended) Unemployment Loadshedding Corruption Inflation Drinking Water Poverty Political Instability Water Resource/Dam Education Bad Economy Law & Order Sewerage Gas Terrorism Roads Lack of Good Injustice Other DK/NR 8% 8% % 23

24 In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Pakistan? (Open-ended) (Tracking Major Issues Only) Punjab KP Unemployment 2 Unemployment 35% Loadshedding 1 Loadshedding 15% Corruption 1 Corruption 10% Inflation 16% Inflation 10% Drinking Water 9% Drinking Water Sindh Balochistan Unemployment 28% Unemployment 2 Loadshedding 19% Loadshedding 15% Corruption 1 Corruption 20% Inflation 8% Inflation Drinking Water 1 Drinking Water 24

25 In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Pakistan? Tracking Major Issues Only 30% 25% 25% 2 20% 20% 18% 15% % 10% 5% 0% Loadshedding Unemployment Inflation Corruption Terrorism Nov-17 Jul-18 25

26 Elections IPOR Consulting 26

27 Did you vote in the 2013 national elections? DK/NR Yes 76% No 2 27

28 How likely are you to vote in the next national assembly elections? DK/NR Not Likely at all 5% Somewhat Likely 1 Very Likely 8 28

29 35% 30% 3 29% If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? (Open-ended) Margin of Error± 25% 20% 15% 1 10% 5% 6% 0% 29

30 If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? Tracking Major Parties Only Margin of Error± 40% 37% 35% 30% 25% % 29% 20% 17% 15% 15% % 5% 0% General Election 2013 November 2017 July 2018 PML-N PTI PPP 30

31 If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? (Party Vote by Province) Punjab KP PML-N 50% PTI 45% PTI 3 PML-N ANP 8% 1 PPP 5% MMA PPP 6% 5% TLP MMA IND QWP TLP PPP Sindh 35% PPP MMA Balochistan 1 16% PTI 18% PKMAP 10% PML-N MQM Pakistan MMA PML-F APML GDA SUP TLP 10% 7% PTI BAP PML-N BNP NP ANP IND 5% 5% 5% 8% 7% 31

32 If the elections for National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (Punjab) 60% 57% 50% 49% 50% 40% 30% % 19% 1 10% 5% 0% General Elections 2013 Nov-17 Jun-18 PPP TLP PML-N PTI 32

33 35% Party Vote by Gender 27% If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? 3 29% 3 28% Party Vote by Age 3 35% 26% 26% % 29% 16% 1 PML-N PTI PPP 35% Male 3 Female Party Vote by Location % PML-N PTI PPP Party Vote by Education 2 36% 36% 36% 25% 25% 30% 26% 7% 17% 1 10% 8% 10% 7% PML-N PTI PPP Rural Urban Illiterate Primary Middle Matric Intermediate Graduate Master PML-N PTI PPP 33

34 If the national assembly election were held next week for which party would you vote for? (Party Vote by Age Group 18-25) Keeping an eye on young voters 37% Nov 2017 July % 29% PML-N PTI PPP PML-N PTI PPP 34

35 Do you think that Shahbaz Sharif would be a good or bad prime minister? Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 56% 37% July % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 35

36 Do you think that Shahbaz Sharif would be a good or bad prime minister? (Open-ended) Why do you think good prime minister? (Only 56% said good) Development Work Good for Country Good Performance 2 19% 18% Why do you think bad prime minister? (Only 37% said bad) Experienced 1 Trustworthy 8% Corrupt 5 Hardworker 5% False promises 9% Honest Leader Only Development in Punjab 8% Educational Reforms Good for Poor Electricity Projects Good Policies Other DK/NR Bad Performance Bad For Countary No Development Work Bad for Poor Khatam e Nabuwat Speeches Against Institutions No Accountibility 8% 6% High Taxes Other DK/NR 36

37 Do you think that Imran Khan would be a good or bad prime minister? Very Good Good Bad Very Bad DK/NR 46% 4 July % 26% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 37

38 Do you think that Imran Khan would be a good or bad prime minister? (Open-ended) Why do you think good prime minister? (Only 46% said good) Deu to Change Honest Leader 2 19% Why do you think bad prime minister? (Only 4 said bad) Development Work Fight against Corruption Good for Country Good Performance in KP Good for Poor Billion Tree Project Shoukat Khanam Hospital Educational reforms Police Reforms 19% 16% 1 Lack of Political Experience Bad for Country Always Take U-turn Non-serious Attitude No Development Work in KP Corrupt Liar Promoting Western Culture Sit-In Bad Speeches Agent Worng Ticket Distribution Army's Stooge 2 15% 1 1 6% 5% Other DK/NR Reham's Book Other DK/NR 6% 38

39 Recently Nawaz Sharif has said given his narrative that there is Khalai Makhlooq (Establishment) is behind on removal of his government, do you agree or disagree with this statement? Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR 39% 5 July % 2 15% 38% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 39

40 Recently Nawaz Sharif has said given his narrative that there is Khalai Makhlooq (Establishment) is behind on removal of his government, do you agree or disagree with this statement? (By-Province) Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR 55% 4 Balochistan 35% 20% 2 20% 2 66% KP 1 8% 2 45% 1 26% 6 Sindh 9% 17% 16% 46% 1 48% 47% Punjab 2 26% 1 3 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 40

41 PML-N has decided to base its election campaign on slogan Vote Ko Izzat Do (Respect the Sanctity of Vote), do you like or dislike this slogan? Strongly Like Somewhat Like Somewhat Dislike Strongly Dislike DK/NR 49% 47% July % 2 17% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 41

42 PML-N has decided to base its election campaign on slogan Vote Ko Izzat Do (Respect the Sanctity of Vote), do you like or dislike this slogan? (By-Province) Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR 6 39% Balochistan 38% 2 16% 2 0% 26% 6 KP 16% 10% 25% 39% 10% 36% 59% Sindh % 5% 60% 38% Punjab 3 29% 9% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 42

43 Again thinking some more about this, who do you think would be a better prime minister, Imran Khan or Shahbaz Sharif? DK/NR 9% Shahbaz Sharif 47% Imran Khan 4 43

44 Media Messages Test IPOR Consulting 44

45 Thinking now about PTI, have you seen, read, or heard anything about them in the news recently? PTI PML-N DK/NR 7% DK/NR 6% Yes 49% Yes 49% No 45% No 4 45

46 Was what you have seen, read, or heard mostly positive or mostly negative? PTI PML-N DK/NR DK/NR Positive 3 Positive 47% Negative 49% Negative 65% 46

47 What have specifically have you seen, read, or heard? PTI PML-N Fight Against Corruption Marriges Rehams's Book Chenge in Country Wrong Distribution of Tickets Development work in KP Institutional Reforms Sit-In Bad Politics Liar Good Party Leader U-Turn Umrah Issue Emtional Party Bad for Country Corrupt People in Party Naya Pakistan Criticisim on Govt Allegations of Gulalai Frequent Use of Abusive Educational Reforms Other DK/NR 6% 6% 6% 7% 10% 15% 1 Corrupt Party Development Work Panama Corruption Kalsoom Nawaz's Health Issue Speeches against Judiciary Good for Country Electricity Projects Disqulification of PM False promises Rift in Party Strong Party Load-Shedding Khatam- e Nabuwat Issue Good for Poors Good Health facilities Educational Reforms Inflation Model Town Incident Speeches Against Army Other DK/NR 5% 5% 6% 10% 10% 47 30%

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