January 28-1 July Nationwide Opinion Poll. In the lead-up to Pakistan s General Election 2018
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1 January 28-1 July Nationwide Opinion Poll In the lead-up to Pakistan s General Election 218 1
2 About us Mission Statement Location and Contact details We seek to provide quality private polling services in Pakistan. Founded in 217, we have conducted several private polls for one of three major political parties, and one smaller party with representation in the outgoing parliament. We are located in I-8 Markaz Center in Islamabad. To contact us, please our media coordinator at or use the Contact form on our website: ordpress.com/contact/ 2
3 How we work Data collection Data analysis Sent to our client 5 day period maximum 1 to 2 days days Our hundreds of field workers in 12 out of 131 districts in Punjab, Sindh, KPK and Balochistan collect data from respondents Raw data is analyzed and based on our district by district results, we use a uniform swing method taking into 213 general elections results to calculate seat projections Our reports are sent directly to our clients so they can track on-the-ground opinion without a delay of more than a week 3
4 Methodology Survey period: June 28-1 July, 218 Face-to-face interviews of randomly selected registered voters Sample size: 3573 Margin of error: +/- 2% at 95% confidence interval Survey locations selected through random selection of polling stations in every district Male respondents interviewed by male field interviewees, vice versa for female respondents 4
5 Methodology Sample size only includes likely voters, with the first question asked of every respondent being: How likely are you to vote in the upcoming general election?. All respondents with at least a 5% chance of voting are included in the sample Kish and right hand methods used for household member selection and household selection, respectively 5
6 Demographics of our sample 6
7 Demographics: Gender-wise composition of respondents 7
8 Demographics: Education-wise composition of respondents 8
9 Demographics: Age-wise composition of respondents 9
10 Demographics: Rural/Urban composition 1
11 Demographics: respondents by religious sect/religion 11
12 Demographics: respondents by family income 12
13 Demographics: respondents by family income 13
14 Demographics: respondents by province 14
15 Overall/ province Voting Intention 15
16 Nationwide Voting Intention 16
17 Punjab Voting Intention 17
18 Sindh Voting Intention 18
19 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Voting Intention 19
20 Baluchistan Voting Intention 2
21 Overall/provinc e Voting Intention PTI reaches 3% threshold for the first time since we began polling in nationwide voting intention Punjab a neck-and-neck contest PPP likely to continue to dominate Sindh PTI likely to continue to dominate KPK Baluchistan to repeat a split vote as is typical 21
22 Region-wise voting intention 22
23 Northwest Punjab Voting Intention 23
24 South Punjab Voting Intention 24
25 Central Punjab Voting Intention 25
26 Interior Sindh Voting Intention 26
27 Urban Sindh Voting Intention 27
28 Region-wise Voting Intention Expect PTI to do well in South Punjab and Northwest Punjab PML(N) dominant in Central Punjab PPP likely to sweep Interior Sindh as GDA fails to put up a strong contest MQM(P) ahead in Urban Sindh but gains likely for PTI and PPP 28
29 Voting Intention in major districts/urban areas 29
30 Note These results are based on a very small size of respondents drawn from within the sample The district-wise results ARE NOT based on separate samples 3
31 Lahore Voting Intention 31
32 Faisalabad Voting Intention 32
33 Rawalpindi Voting Intention 33
34 Karachi Voting Intention 34
35 Muzaffargarh Voting Intention 35
36 Multan Voting Intention 36
37 Peshawar Voting Intention 37
38 Gujranwala Voting Intention 38
39 Rahim Yar Khan Voting Intention 39
40 Demographics and influence on voting behavior 4
41 Gender and Voting Intention 41
42 Education and Voting Intention 42
43 Religion/Religious Sect and Voting Intention 43
44 Family Income and Voting Intention 44
45 Age and Voting Intention 45
46 Key points No substantial gender gap although PTI does better amongst men and PML(N) does better amongst women Higher education level and family income correlates with higher likeliness to vote for PTI, opposite for PML(N) PTI does better amongst younger voters 46
47 Responses to other questions 47
48 Likeliness to vote 48
49 Preferred Prime Minister 49
50 Most important issue for voters 5
51 Voters opinion on fairness of the election 51
52 Key points No substantial gender gap although PTI does better amongst men and PML(N) does better amongst women Higher education level and family income correlates with higher likeliness to vote for PTI, opposite for PML(N) PTI does better amongst younger voters 52
53 Other indicators and voting intention 53
54 Likeliness to vote and Voting Intention 54
55 Most important issue and Voting Intention 55
56 Most important issue and Voting Intention 56
57 Key points Enthusiasm gap could detriment PTI s chances, PML(N) supporters more enthusiastic PML(N) does better among voters worried about inflation, PTI among voters worried about corruption PML(N) supporters worried about fairness of election, PTI supporters less worried 57
58 Seat Projections 58
59 How we come up with seat projections? A uniform swing method is used to translate opinion polls into seats in a first past the post system Using district-by-district voting intention, we compare it to the results of previous elections, and expecting a uniform swing across all seats, predict how many seats each party can win Not an entirely accurate system for seat projections given substantial fluctuations in swing in Pakistani elections as candidates play a huge role instead of parties in most constituencies 59
60 Seat Projections Detailed Punjab Sindh KPK Balochistan ICT Total PML(N) PTI PPP MQM(P) MMA ANP 2 2 GDA 4 4 PSP 1 1 TLP BAP Other/Indep. 6
61 Seat Projections 61
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