Survey of Jordanian Public Opinion. National Poll #15 May 22-25, 2017

Transcription

1 Survey of Jordanian Public Opinion National Poll #15 May 22-25, 2017

2 Detailed Methodology This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Middle East Marketing and Research Consultants on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR). This nationally representative survey was carried out from May 22 to 25, A sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 years and older participated in face-to-face interviews in their homes. The sample design consisted of a multi-stage cluster sample: o Stage one: Divide country into 100 clusters distributed among Jordan s 12 governorates based on the 2015 Department of Statistics Housing and Population Census frame. The Nyman allocation approach was used to distribute the sample of clusters among the different governorates, ensuring proper coverage for governorates with small population sizes. Weights were then used to reflect the actual population size of each governorate. o Stage two: Ten households were drawn (with a replacement to allow for non-contacts) from each cluster. A random start and a systematic selection procedure was used to ensure proper representation of different parts of the cluster in the sample and to reduce intra-class correlation. Researchers conducted one in-person interview per household, selected using the Kish method. The response rate for the survey was 91 percent. Eight percent of contacts refused the interviewer at the door and one percent began the survey but refused to complete it. The margin of error for the survey does not exceed +/- 3.5 percent, with a confidence level of 95 percent where p=0.50. Figures in charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. This survey was made possible by funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). 2

3 Right Direction/Wrong Direction

4 Overall, is Jordan headed in the right or wrong direction? 5 39% % 3 27% 19% 24% 2 16% 1 1 8% 8% Things are going mostly in the right direction Things are going somewhat in the right direction Things are going somewhat in the wrong direction Things are going mostly in the wrong direction Not sure/don t know Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

5 What is your main reason for considering things in Jordan to be going mostly or somewhat in the right direction? (Open-ended; n=410) Stability and security Improving economy Political reforms Citizens' daily conditions improved Hashemite leadership Situation better than neighboring countries Other Not sure/don't know 6% 8% 7% 4% 4% 4% 6% 7% 4% 4% 9% % May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr

6 What is your main reason for considering things in Jordan to be going mostly or somewhat in the wrong direction? (Open-ended; n=541) Rising prices Weak economy Administrative and financial corruption Unemployment Poverty Refugee influx Wrong government policies Too many problems 7% 6% 4% 4% 6% 1 9% 9% 1 16% 16% 1 14% 18% 19% 19% % Widespread drug use Other Don't know 4% 8% 9% 3 May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr

7 What, in your opinion, is the single biggest problem facing Jordan as a whole? 3 34% (Open-ended) % 2 26% 26% 1 16% 14% 1 17% 1 8% 1 1 7% 8% 7% 6% 6% 17% 18% 16% 14% 16% 14% 1 14% 9% 9% 7% 8% Jul 2012 Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 Rising cost of living Unemployment Poverty Terrorism Jordan's economic conditions Admin & financial corruption Refugee influx Widespread drug use Low income 7

8 Current Economic Situation

9 How would you describe the current economic situation in Jordan? 6 46% % 3 29% 24% % 2 26% 18% 16% Very good Good Bad Very bad Not sure Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

10 In your opinion, why is the current economy in Jordan very good" or good"? (Multiple answer question - open-ended; n=307) Safety and security Basic needs fulfilled 8% 14% 1 19% 2 28% Individual incomes improved 1 1 Job creation Stable economic conditions Goods and services at reasonable prices New direct investments 7% 6% 9% 9% 9% 9% May 2017 Nov 2016 Provision of basic services 8% Apr 2016 Natural resources 4% Thriving trade Other Not sure/don't know 7% 6% 6% 14%

11 In your opinion, why is the current economy in Jordan very bad" or bad"? (Multiple answer question - open-ended; n=1,521) High prices Unemployment 19% 27% 26% 26% 2 2 Low incomes Poverty Corruption Refugee influx Poor economic conditions Increasing public debt % 8% 7% 7% 7% 4% 4% 4% May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr 2016 Other 4% 8% 1 Not sure/don't know 3 11

12 Do you think the general economic situation in Jordan over the next 12 months is likely to get: 6 46% 3 36% 37% 3 4% 19% 14% 9% 4% Much better Somewhat better Somewhat worse Much worse Not sure Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

13 How would you describe your current household economic situation? % 6 69% 56% % % 9% 6% Very good Good Bad Very bad Not sure/don't know Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

14 Do you think your household economic situation over the next 12 months is likely to get: 8 64% 6 54% % 28% 29% 6% 7% 7% % 6% 7% 7% 6% Much better Somewhat better Somewhat worse Much worse Not sure Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

15 Which of the following statements best describes the income of your family? % Income covers household expenses and allows us some savings Income covers household expenses but no savings Income does not cover household expenses and we face difficulties in making ends meet 15

16 In order to meet expenses, did your family take any of the following measures over the past 12 months? (Respondents who said their household income does not allow for savings; n=955) 7 58% 5 46% 39% % Delayed major purchases Cut on basic needs Bought more on credit Requested assistance from family members Dipped into savings Sold any of its assets Requested assistance from National Aid Fund Requested assistance from Zakat Fund 16

17 Which of the following costs constitutes the heaviest burden on your household budget? Food Electricity Housing Fuel for automobiles Education Health Transportation Clothing 28% % 26% 28% 1 16% 19% % % 4% May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr 2016 Mar 2015 Mobile telephone None Other Not sure 4%

18 If prices had to increase by, on which of the following would you most tolerate an increase? None Food Clothes Mobile telephone Housing Transportation Fuel for automobiles Education Health Electricity Other Not sure/don't know 8% 4% 8% 7% 1 1 6% 14% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4 58% 5 6 May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr 2016 Mar

19 In order to improve basic government services (health care, education, infrastructure, etc.), would you support or oppose levying new taxes? % 87% % 6% 7% 7% 4% Support Oppose Not sure/don't know Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

20 Why do you oppose levying new taxes? (Open-ended; n=888) % 4% Incomes are too low and citizens cannot afford additional burdens even if basic services are improved Services are currently so bad and we cannot expect that new taxes would bring any improvement Taxes on goods and services are already too high to allow further increase Prices of goods and services are already too high New taxes would only add to the pockets of corrupt people Other Not sure/don't know 20

21 Public Confidence in Parliament and the Independent Election Commission (IEC)

22 To what degree do you believe the current parliament is effective in exercising its duties of monitoring the government and issuing legislation? 37% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all effective Not sure/don't know 22

23 Did the current parliament accomplish anything for which you feel it should be commended? % 89% % 14% 14% 8% 9% Yes No Not sure/don't know Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May

24 Political Parties

25 Have you heard of any political parties in Jordan? % % 6% 7% Yes No Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Nov 2016 May

26 What is the name of the party or parties you have heard of? (Multiple answer question - open-ended; n=313) Party Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 Islamic Action Front (IAF) 37% 46% 37% Arab Ba athist Socialist Party 7% 6% 8% Al Wasat Party 8% 4% 6% National Stream Party (National Current Party) 9% 6% Jordanian Communist Party 4% National Jordanian Party 4% Al Resalah Party <. 4% Ba'athist Arab Progressive Party <. Democratic Popular Unity Party Jordanian Democratic People s Party (Hashd) 4% National Constitutional Party Al Rafah Party No mention Jordan National Action Front Party <. Jordan Unified Front Party No mention <. <. National Loyalty Party (Wafaa ) <. <. (Incorrect name provided)

27 Government, Reform and Elections

28 To what degree do you think the current government has been able to fulfill its duties since being selected? 5 29% 3 29% 2 6% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know 28

29 To what degree do you think the prime minister has been able to fulfill the duties of his office since being selected? 5 34% 29% 29% 2 4% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know 29

30 To what degree do you think the current ministerial team has been able to fulfill its duties since being selected? 5 36% 29% 28% 2 4% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know 30

31 To what degree do you care about political reform in Jordan? 6 48% 39% 37% 34% % % % 1 1 To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

32 Do you think a government chosen by parliament could improve political reforms in Jordan? 6 57% 5 56% 29% % 17% Yes No Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

33 Do you think candidates elected on a national level rather than a regional level could improve political reforms in Jordan? 6 57% 5 48% 39% 29% 3 14% 17% 1 Yes No Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

34 Do you think the empowerment and development of political parties could improve political reforms in Jordan? 6 57% % 3 19% 14% 17% 18% Yes No Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

35 To what degree do you have confidence in the following persons and institutions? May 2017 To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Military 8 14% Judiciary 5 3 7% 6% Religious institutions % Doctors and hospitals 3 47% 1 7% Schools and universities 3 5 8% Municipal Councils 1 39% 26% Prime Minister Mulki 7% 29% 26% 3 Parliament 24% 28% 4 Political parties 4% %

36 To what degree do you have confidence in the following persons and institutions? Nov 2016 To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Military 8 1 Judiciary 48% 3 8% Religious institutions 37% 1 9% Doctors and hospitals 3 44% 1 8% Schools and universities 3 44% 1 9% Municipal Councils 1 39% 2 19% Prime Minister Mulki 1 37% 28% Parliament 8% 36% 24% 3 Political parties 6% 17% 19% 46%

37 To what degree do you think the government, parliament and the judiciary are: Parliament Government May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr % 39% 27% 17% 19% 48% 2 18% 47% May % 24% 3 36% Nov % 38% 28% 24% Apr % 2 28% 39% 4% Very effective Quite effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not sure/don't know Judiciary May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr % % 49% % 8%

38 To what degree do you feel you have a say in governmental decision-making on issues that directly affect you? % 2 24% % 9% To a large degree 9% To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

39 If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy? % 34% % 26% 26% 2 18% 1 14% 1 4% A democratic system of government is definitely more important to me A democratic system of government is somewhat more important to me A prosperous economy is somewhat more important to me A prosperous economy is definitely more important to me Not sure/don't know Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

40 To what degree do you feel citizens should engage in the development of their community? % % 8% 1 1 To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

41 Women and Youth

42 To what degree do you agree or disagree with this statement? Women should be equally represented in political decision making in Jordan % 27% 27% 36% 39% 39% 26% % 6% Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Not sure Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

43 If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications, aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support? % 38% % 39% 39% Man Woman Makes no difference to me Not sure Refused to answer Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

44 If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications, aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support? % 28% 1 (Disaggregated by gender) 3 39% 39% Man Woman Makes no difference to me Not sure Refused to answer Male Female 44

45 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women % 5 49% % % 14% Agree Disagree Not sure Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

46 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women. (Disaggregated by gender) % % Agree Disagree Not sure Men Women 46

47 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people % % 38% 3 26% 1 8% Agree Disagree Not sure/don't know Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

48 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people. (Disaggregated by age) % 49% 3 39% 37% 3 14% 9% 8% Agree Disagree Not sure/don't know

49 Attitudes Towards ISIS/DAESH

50 Do you consider the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS/DAESH) to be a terrorist organization? 10 89% 89% 86% 8 6 7% 7% 7% 4% 4% Yes No Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May

51 To what degree do you feel ISIS/DAESH is a real threat to security in Jordan? % 3 26% 27% 2 18% 16% 16% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May

52 Do you believe that the ideology of ISIS/DAESH has support among Jordanians? 7 67% % % % 2 16% Yes No Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May

53 Do you think ISIS/DAESH is mainly supported by youth, religious people, or poor people? % 36% 3 36% 28% 24% 3 Poor people Youth Religious people 19% 19% 17% 1 Not sure/don't know Refused to answer Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May

54 Municipalities and Decentralization Laws

55 Are you aware that municipalities have been divided into a number of local councils that will be elected in accordance with the new Municipalities Law? 7 68% % Yes No Not sure/don't know 55

56 Are you aware that municipal councils will now be composed of the highest vote recipients of the local council elections (except in Amman, where 2 of the municipal council will be appointed)? 69% Yes No Not sure/don't know 6% 56

57 Are you aware that the Decentralization Law establishes new elected governorate councils? % Yes No Not sure/don't know 57

58 In your opinion, what is the main purpose of decentralization? Don't know 7 Other 9% Engage citizens in decision-making Improve basic services Close development gap Part of political reform Relieve bureacratic burdens at ministries in Amman Facilitate local processing of forms and bureaucratic procedures/alleviate pressure on Amman

59 Are you aware that the IEC will hold elections for mayors, local councils and governorate councils on separate ballots on August 15, 2017? 7 67% % Yes No Not sure/don't know 6% 59

60 Do you intend to vote in the upcoming local and decentralization elections on August 15, 2017? 3 29% % 1 6% I definitely will I probably will I probably will not I definitely will not Not sure/don't know 60

61 Why do you not intend to vote in the upcoming local and decentralization elections on August 15, 2017? (Open-ended; n=292) I do not trust any candidate/unworthy candidates 3 No benefit expected from these elections No trust in electoral process/not convinced 2 2 Not interested 8% Work conditions/too busy 4% Military Illness/indisposed Other 7% Not sure/don't know 3 61

62 To what degree do you believe the Independent Election Commission (IEC) will be able to ensure fair and transparent municipal and decentralization elections? % 9% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/don't know Refused to answer 62

63 Influx of Syrian Refugees

64 Do you approve of closing the borders to any additional Syrian refugees; continuing to receive Syrian refugees but limiting the number; or continuing to receive more Syrian refugees? % 56% 5 Closing the borders to any additional Syrian refugees 38% 34% 3 29% Continuing to receive Syrian refugees but limiting the number 1 24% 1 1 Continuing to receive more Syrian refugees Not sure/don't know Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

65 Do you think attitudes towards Syrian refugees are getting: % 5 3 8% 27% 26% 1 9% Better Worse Remain the same Not sure/don't know Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May

66 Demographics

67 Demographics GENDER LOCATION POPULATION DENSITY AGE GROUP EDUCATION HOUSEHOLD INCOME (MONTHLY) Male Female North (Irbid, Jerash, Ajloun, Mafraq) Center (Amman, Zarqa, Balqa, Madaba) South (Karak, Tafileh, Ma'an, Aqaba) Urban Rural Illiterate Less than secondary Secondary Higher than secondary Less than 200 JOD JOD JOD JOD JOD 1,000+ JOD Not sure/don't know Refused to answer 4% 4% 9% 1 27% % 3 29% 37% 34%

68 Demographics MARITAL STATUS Single Married 27% 68% Other EMPLOYMENT STATUS Working Not working 37% 64% EMPLOYMENT SECTOR (n=365) Public Private 3 66% Other LOOKING FOR A JOB (n=635) Yes No 2 7 TIME SPENT LOOKING FOR A JOB (n=158) Less than one month Less than three months Less than six months 8% 1 Less than 12 months More than 12 months 5 Not sure/don t remember DROPPED OUT OF SCHOOL Yes No 28%

69 Center for Insights in Survey Research