Program. The. Bank Research ~~~~~097. A bstracts. Current. Studies. ~World. Public Disclosure Authorized. Public Disclosure Authorized

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1 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized I The ~World Bank Research Program ~~~~~ A bstracts of Current Studies

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3 The World Bank Research Program Abstracts of Current Studies I

4 ( 2004 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C Telephone Internet wwwworldbank.org feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone , fax , All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C , USA, fax , pubrights@ worldbank.org. ISBN This report has been prepared by the staff of the World Bank. The judgments expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors or of the governments they represent.

5 Contents Introdudtion 1 Studies by Subject Area 5 Abstracts of Current Studies 11 Poverty and Social Development 13 Health and Population 35 Education, Labor, and Employment 41 Environment 49 Infrastructure and Urban Development 61 Agriculture and Rural Development 71 Macroeconomics and Growth 79 International Economics 83 Domestic Finance 111 Industry and Private Sector Development 122 Governance and Public Sector Management 129 Bank Research Output 138 iii

6 Definition of World Bank Research Research at the Bank encompasses analytic work designed to produce results with wide applicability across countries or sectors. Bank research, in contrast to academic research, is directed toward recognized and emerging policy issues and is focused on yielding better policy advice. Although motivated by policy problems, Bank research addresses longer-term concerns rather than the immediate needs of a particular Bank lending operation or of a particular country or sector report. Activities classified as research at the Bank do not, therefore, include the economic and sector work and policy analysis carried out by Bank staff to support operations in particular countries. Economic and sector work and policy studies take the product of research and adapt it to specific projects or country settings, whereas Bank research contributes to the intellectual foundations of future lending operations and policy advice. Both activities-research and economic and sector work-are critical to the design of successful projects and effective policy.

7 Introduction The World Bank's research program has four basic objec- ence of the publications. Among external clients who read tives: to broaden the understanding of development, to or use the four main categories of publications, 80 assist in developing research capacity in the Bank's percent or more report that the publications influenced member countries, to improve its capacity to advise its their thinking about international development issues a members, and to support all aspects of its own operations. great deal or a fair amount. Whether these aims are achieved depends in part on how Translations are important. Some 64 percent of responextensively Bank research is used internally and exter- dents to the client survey are in countries where English nally. In early 2004 the Development Economics is not the principal language. Of these, 54 percent indi- Senior Vice Presidency commissioned two surveys in cate that translation into their country's main language part to assess the use of publications carrying Bank- is important or very important. Since this response comes wide research (annual flagship publications, Policy from a sample sufficiently fluent in English to complete Research Reports, Policy Research Working Papers, and a survey fielded in that language, the demand for transthe two research journals) by Bank staff and by the lations is likely to be higher among the broader target Bank's clients. audience for Bank publications. For external clients the Internet is an important source of What Surveys Show about the Use information. The staff survey results suggest that the of Bank Research Bank's core constituencies have ready access to the Internet. Bank staff in country offices, based on their obser- The first survey resulted in 468 completed questionnaires vations, report that Internet access is generally available from Bank staff in Washington, D.C., and country offices. in the universities, research institutions, private compa- The second brought 1,614 completed questionnaires nies, government offices, and civil society organizations from external clients in more than 140 countries around that were surveyed. The responses to the client survey the world. These clients had access to Bank Web sites, are consistent with these observations. Among clients in had expressed interest in Bank publications, and were developing and transition economies as well as industrial able to complete the questionnaire in English. Their countries, 85 percent or more report that the Internet is access to Bank publications thus was not constrained, important or very important for accessing data and staallowing the survey to focus on the use of accessible tistics, working papers, and journal articles. Indeed, 74 publications. At least 100 responses came from each percent or more prefer to access these products online region, with a cross-section of organizations (govern- rather than in print, and 59 percent most frequently ment, academia, private sector) and job functions. The obtain Bank publications by downloading them from survey findings led to four main conclusions. the Bank's Web site. Strikingly, 41 percent of clients in Clients use Bank research publicationsfrequently. Among developing and transition economies report using the external clients, 67 percent report using three or more Bank's Web site at least weekly, and 78 percent or more Bank research publications in the past year, and 91 at least several times a month. percent at least one. Among Bank staff, 80 percent report using three or more, and 96 percent at least one. What Research Is Now Under Way at the Bank? Bank research publications are influential. Bank staff believe that the Bank's publications are influential with This volume reports on research projects initiated, under key client groups, and the more frequent their contacts way, or completed in fiscal 2002 and 2003 (July 1, 2001, with the client groups, the more highly they rate the influ- through June 30, 2003). This edition covers slightly 1

8 fewer activities than previous ones, but for the first time about such key operational concerns as the sustainabilit includes summaries of large research programs. These ity of community-driven development programs, the multiyear programs undertake analysis on several issues role of facilitators, and the interaction between comrelating to a broad development topic with the aim of pro- munity organizations and local and central government. viding strategic directions on critical problems facing Studies use a range of methods, from full randomization Bank clients and operations. The Bank's Research Com- with baseline and follow-up surveys to ex post evaluamittee provides program grants to fund this research tions using mixed methods. while leveraging additional resources, with the expec- Finance. This research was organized around two tation of a major impact on Bank and client policy. Each broad areas: financial sector regulation and taxation, and program is expected to center on a theme giving coher- market structure in banking. It responds to pressing polence to the research and its outputs. With their thematic icy questions on how best to regulate and tax the finanfocus and breadth, the programs are expected to be of cial sector in a changing environment characterized by particular interest for network-based research. privatization, consolidation, and the entry of foreign In fiscal 2002 and 2003 five such programs were under banks. Research projects have included Bank Regulation way, covered in this volume by a single abstract or and Supervision, Taxation of Financial Intermediation, several. Bank Privatization in Developing Countries, Foreign Investment Climate. This program has two key Bank Entry in Developing Countries, and Bank Concomponents, data provided by the investment climate centration and Competition. surveys and research based on those data. Surveys and The World Trade Ofganization and Development. This investment climate assessments are carried out in research program focuses on four main themes: collaboration with local counterparts, instrumental in * Development, trade, and international trade building local capacity for systematic collection of firm- agreements-assessing the implications of alternative level data and for policy-relevant research. The program international trade rules for developing countries, explorhas completed 16 investment climate assessments, and ing how international trade agreements can be made to 16 more are under way. promote development, and evaluating the implications Looking Beyond Averages. This program has two main of entering into such agreements. objectives. First, it aims to ensure that the Bank's data * Trade, technology, and foreign direct investmentand tools for poverty analysis and policy advice remain investigating channels of international diffusion of techthe best available. This work deals with the discrepan- nology, including the role of foreign direct investment and cies between surveys and national accounts as part of a international agreements such as those on intellectual wider effort to improve the cross-country databases property rights. for assessing progress toward the Millennium Develop- * Trade and poverty-investigating how trade and ment Goal for global poverty. Second, the program trade liberalization affect the poor in developing counseeks to answer the question, Why are some growth tries, especially in the context of World Trade Organiprocesses more effective in reducing poverty than others? zation negotiations. This investigation involves looking beyond averages to * Trade in services and product standards-evaluatprovide a deeper understanding of what role initial con- ing the importance of "behind the border" policy areas ditions (including initial inequalities) play in a country and for international integration and development. what drives the distributional changes seen in survey data. What Information Is Here-and How to Get More Rural Development. This program began by focusing on community-driven development, in response to the The abstracts in this volume describe, for each project, sharply increased donor funding for this and similar the questions addressed, the analytic methods used, the development approaches. The research develops insights findings to date, and their policy implications and use. 2 Introduction

9 research and its findings may do so through the Devel- opment Economics Senior Vice Presidency's Web site ( This site provides access to the Abstracts of CurrentStudies, articles from the Bank's two research journals-the World Bank Research Observer and World Bank Economic Review-and many research reports and publications. Each abstract also identifies the research team and any reports or publications produced. To make it easier to obtain information and data, each abstract gives the address for the research project's supervisor. The appendix lists reports and publications produced from Bank research and explains how to obtain them. This is an annual compendium; readers interested in obtaining more timely information on World Bank Introduttion 3

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11 Studies by I Sub iec I Area Poverty and Social Development 13 Access to Finance and Poverty Alleviation 13 Comparative Analysis of Social 1 unds 13 Estimating the Impact of Tradc Libcralization on Poverty: Evidcnce from Mlcxico 14 Evaluation of the Impact of Investments in Early Child Development on Nutrition and Cognitive [)evelopment 14 'T'he Geography of Poverty 15 The Impact of Changes in Prices, 'Iaxcs, Subsidies, and Stipends on Poverty 17 The Impact of Growth on Poverty in Latin America: MNaximum Entropy Estimates and Analysis 17 T lhe Impact of'l'rade and Foreign Direct Investment Rcform on the Poor 18 Initiatives for Improved Data on Povertv and Incqualitv 19 Keeping the Promise of Old Agc Income Security in Latin America and the Caribbean 22 A Nlanual on 'I'ools for Poverty Analysis 23 Microfinance Impact Evaluation 24 A New Analytic Framework for Exvaluating Social Programs 24 Patterns of Inequality 25 Review of Communitv-Based and -Driven Development Programs 26 Safety Nets in an }merging Market Economy 27 Social Status in India and the Response to Economic Opportunities 28 'I'hematic MNapping of Nonincome Povcrty 28 X'Irade Liberalization and Houselhold Impact in Vietnam 29 Urban Poverty and Social Capital 29 Why Are Some Growth Processcs More Pro-Poor 'T'han Others? 30 Youth, Identity, and Cultture in Multiracial Societies 33 Health and Population 35 Child Vulnerability in Peru: Determinants of Nutritional Status, Impact of Social Protection Programs, and Effects of Miacroeconomic Crisis on Child Health 35 Determinants of Success in Immunization Programs 35 5

12 Governance of Public Health 36 Health Care Infrastructure and Maternal and Child Health 36 Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi 37 Health Policy Research in South Asia 38 Institutional Determinants of Effective Delivery of Public Health Services 39 Rural Health Care in China 40 Education, Labor, and Employment 41 Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Early Childhood Nutrition 41 Child Labor and Access to Credit: Evidence from Rural Tanzania and Vietnam 41 Human Capital and Growth in Transition Economies 42 The Impact of Deworming Treatment on Primary School Performance in Busia, Kenya 42 Incidence Analysis of Public Support to the Private Education Sector in Cote d'ivoire 43 Inequality in Education 44 International Migration and Development 45 Labor Markets and Vulnerability 45 Migration, Poverty, and Income Strategies of Rural Households in Albania 46 Poetry, Literacy, and Empowerment for Rural Yemeni Women 46 Semiparametric Methods for Evaluation of Social Policies and Programs 47 Environment 49 Capital Markets and Environmental Performance: Evidence from the Republic of Korea 49 Climate Change and Rural Poverty 49 Corruption, Pollution, and Foreign Direct Investment 50 Economic Instruments for Habitat Conservation 51 Environmental Indicators 52 Fiscal Incentives for Conservation in Brazil 52 Foreign Direct Investment and Pollution Havens 53 The Functional Value of Biodiversity and Its Correlates 54 Global Overlay-Brazil 54 Landfill Gas Utilization in Sub-Saharan Africa 56 Markets for Environmental Resources 57 Measuring the Economic Value of Environmental Protection Projects: Methodology and Applications to Armenia's Lake Sevan 57 Pesticide UJse in Brazil 58 Pollution from Chemical Use in Agriculture 59 Public Disclosure of Industrial Pollution in China 59 Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions 59 6 Studies by Subject Area

13 Infrastructure and Urban DevelopmeNt 61 Connecting Cities with Macroeconomic Concerns: The Missing Link 61 Economic and Engineering Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Managing Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs 61 Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, and Development in Nepal 62 The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand 64 Information, Knowledge, and Capacity Building for Effective Urban Strategies: Information-Based Instruments for Urban Management 64 Information Technology and Development 65 Infrastructure Logistics and the Costs of Doing Business: Physical, Policy, and Institutional Barriers 65 Million Connections Fund 66 Regulation by Contract for Private Electricity Distribution Companies 67 Regulatory Review of Power Purchase 67 River Basin Management at the Lowest Appropriate Level 68 Rural Roads: Welfare Impact Evaluation 68 Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth 69 Urban Growth Management Initiative 70 Agriculture and Rural Development 71 Access to Land in Latin America and the Caribbean 71 Commodity Marketing Systems 72 Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Degradation in the Indus Basin 72 Land Institutions and Land Policy 72 Land Rental Markets in Eastern Europe 74 Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigation Water Management 74 Mauritania: Technology Fosters Tradition-Preserving the Environment through Grassroots Law Making 75 Nonfarm Rural Development 75 Nonmarket Land Allocation in Vietnam 76 Sending Farmers Back to School: An Econometric Evaluation of the Farmer Field School Extension Approach 77 Weather-Based Index Insurance 78 Macroeconomics and Growth 79 China's Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability: A Computable Equilibrium Model of Overlapping Generations 79 The Impact of Fiscal Arrangements on Private Sector Development in the Russian Federation 79 Studies by Subject Area 7

14 Investment Patterns and the Quality of Growth 80 Low Returns to Reforms in the Global Economy 81 The Political Economy of Fiscal Decentralization 81 Subnational Capital Markets in Theory and Practice 82 International Economics 83 Accessing International Equity Markets 83 Africa Trade Standards Project 83 Does Regionalism Help or Hinder Multilateralism? 85 The Effects of American Depository Receipt Trading on Local Markets 85 Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, and Growth 86 Geography, Trade, and Growth 88 Intellectual Property Rights and U.S. Multinationals 88 International Technology Diffusion: Impact of Trade and Regional Integration 89 Managing Globalization 90 Preshipment Inspection and Customs Corruption 92 The Regional Impact of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization 92 Regional Integration and Development 93 Regional Trade Patterns 97 Technology Diffusion and Growth in Latin America: Impact of Trade, Education, and Governance 97 Trade and Technical Change 98 Trade and Trade Policy Data System 98 Trade Facilitation and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation 98 Trade Facilitation and Development in East Asia 99 Trade Modeling Project 100 Trade Policy and Development 102 Trade Research Relating to the Doha Development Round 102 Trade, Standards, and Regulatory Reforms 105 Trade, Trademarks, and Reputation 107 Understanding Country and Currency Risk 108 The World Trade Organization and the Russian Federation 109 Domestic Finance 111 Bank Concentration and Competition 111 Bank Privatization in Developing Countries 112 Changes in African Financial Systems during the 1990s Studies by Subject Area

15 Credit Fluctuations in Latin America 114 Firm-Level Finance for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises 115 Foreign Bank Entry in Developing Countries 115 Incentives in Banking 116 Pricing of Deposit Insurance 118 Securities Laws and Financial Development: Investor Protection at Acquisition Time across the World 118 Taxation of Financial Intermediation 119 Transaction Costs in Raising Capital 120 Twin Crises and Government Policy 121 Industry and Private Sector Development 122 East Asian Prospects 122 Economic Geography and Political Economy 123 Evaluating Mexico's Small and Medium-Size Enterprise Programs 124 Global Business School Network Capacity and Needs Assessment: Seven Sub-Saharan African Countries 125 Investment Climate Research 126 The Roles of Foreign Contact and Firm Capability in Firms' Dynamic Productivity 128 Governance and Public Sector Management 129 Corporate Governance 129 Corruption 129 Development, Democracy, and State Violence 130 Does Democracy Help the Poor? Comparing Democratic Decentralization and Community-Based Development in India and Indonesia 130 Firm Ownership and Corporate Governance in China 131 The Impact of Institutions on Development 132 The Impact of Local Governance in India: An Empirical Investigation 133 Investment Climate in the Balkans: Regulatory Governance 133 Migration, Decentralization, and Public Goods Provision to the Poor 134 Operational Policy and Software Tool for Institutional Analysis 134 Parliamentary Oversight in Africa 135 Political Economy in the Transition Economies 136 Public Policy toward Nongovernmental Organizations in Developing and Transition Economies 136 Studies by Subject Area 9

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17 i Abstracts of Current Studies

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19 Poverty and Social Development Access to Finance and Poverty Alleviation Comparative Analysis of Social Funds This research project assesses the empirical relation- Social funds have become a major source of money for ship between access to finance, financial sector community-supported development projects. Because development, and financial system characteristics (such these projects are demand-driven and rely on communias ownership and market structure), on the one hand, ties for implementation and management, thcy are and poverty alleviation and income inequality, on the supposed to represent an improvement over more other. That financial development has a positive effect traditional development projects. But more research is on economic growth is known. But this study, needed on the role of cultural institutions and structures using cross-country regressions, is testing the hypothe- in determining how the processes underlying demandsis that finance has a positive relationship with poverty driven assistance work and on the relationship of these alleviation and reduced income inequality. A finding of institutions and structures with social and cultural capital. such a relationship would increase the importance of This research examines the relationshilp between reforms fostering the development of the financial social funds and community participation by comparing system. In addition, the research aims to identify a experience in four countries-jamaica, Nlalawi, specific ownership or market structure or specific Nicaragua, and Zambia-that have very differcnt cultures financial institutions (such as banking, insurance, or as well as internal cultural diversitv. lising qualitative and capital markets) that help reduce poverty and income quantitative survey data and a mix of analytic methods, inequality. the research addresses four questions: Drawing on household survey data for about 40 coun- * How does cultural diversity affcct social capital and tries, a second part of the research will assess the community participation in accessing funds? relationship between the development and structure of * How does the process of participating in applying the financial system and household-level poverty. This for and managing projects affect the cultural underpinanalysis will test the hypothesis that households in coun- nings of participation in collective action? tries with higher financial development have better *Are participatory proccsses exclusionarv on the basis access to financial services and enjoy higher welfare. It of gender, ethnicity, cultural group, or social class? will also attempt to relate specific characteristics of the * Does community participation make social fundfinancial system with households' access to financial assisted projects more sustainable than other projects? services, to assess whether a specific ownership or Analysis of data from Jamaica slhows that the social market structure or specific financial institutions fund process is driven by elites and that decisionmaking facilitate this access. tends to be dominated by a small group of motivated The papers, policy notes, and data sets that are people. But by the end of the project there is broad produced by the research project will be made available satisfaction among community members with the on the Web, and papers will be published in academic outcome. The social fund process improves trust and the journals. In addition, the cross-country analysis may pro- capacity for collective action within the community, but vide a basis for more detailed country-level work on these gains are greater for elites. Both participating and finance and poverty. nonparticipating communities are now more likely to Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance make decisions that affect their lives. But participating -Aslh Demirgiuc-Kunt (ademirguckunt@worldbank communities do not show higher levels of community-.org). driven decisions than nonparticipating commtunities. 13

20 Findings were incorporated into an evaluation of Results show that the trade reforms in the late 1980s social funds by the World Bank's Operations Evaluation and early 1990s increased the welfare of all households, Department, "Social Funds: Assessing Effective- aggregated by income centile. Richer households gained ness"(washington, D.C., 2002). Widely disseminated, this proportionally more. Households closer to the U.S. borreport has had an impact on how World Bank-supported der also had larger gains. social funds are managed. Results of the Jamaica analy- The methodology developed in the study was used sis have been presented at academic and policy venues for the poverty chapter of the multiagency Diagnostic including the World Bank, Johns Hopkins University, the T rade Integration Study completed for Ethiopia in Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cornell UIniver- Additional work is looking at the effect of Ethiopia's sity, and the Northeast Universities Development Con- trade reform in the 1990s on poverty, the effect of sortium Conference at Yale University. improvements in Ethiopia's market access on poverty, and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty the antipoverty bias of its trade policy reform. Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org); and Oper- Papers have been presented at seminars at the World ations Evaluation Department, Sector and Thematic Bank, the University of Geneva, and the Latin Ameri- Evaluation Division-Soniya Carvalho and Howard can and Caribbean Economic Association meetings in White. With Ana Maria IbaiTez, University of the Ades, Puebla, Mexico. Colombia. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org) and Report Marcelo Olarreaga. With Alessandro Nicita and Isidro Rao, Vijayendra, and Ana Maria Ibafiez "The Social Impact Soloaga, tlniversidad de las Americas; and Eugenia of Social Funds in Jamaica: A Mixed-Nlethods Analysis of Baroncelli. Participation, Targeting, and Collective Action in Community- Driven Development." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Estimating the Impact of Trade Liberalization on Poverty: Evidence from Mexico This research is aimed at providing evidence, based on microeconomic data, of the impact of large trade reforms on poverty in a developing country. The study focuses on Mexico, where large trade reforms took place in the late 1980s and early 1990s, poverty was widespread, and several household surveys of good quality are availablc for the period. Using data from the household surveys, the analysis looks at the effect of trade reforms on household income and expenditure. On the income side it focuses on labor income and income from the direct production of goods (such as farm goods). On the expenditure side it allows for second-order effects-the adjustments households make to their consumption bundle once the changes in trade policy have affected the relative prices they face and the income they earn. Reports Nicita, Alessandro "Behavioral Responses of Poor and Nonpoor Households: Estimation of Income, Quality, and Price Elasticitics for Nlexico." World Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C "Who Benefited the Mlost from Mlexico's Trade Liberalization in the 1990s?" World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Evaluation of the Impact of Investments in Early Child Development on Nutrition and Cognitive Development Early child development programs combine nutrition, health care, and cognitive development in an attempt to offset the disadvantages of growing up in poverty. How effective are such programs? This research, through early coordination with World Bank operations, evaluates the impact of investments in early child development in three projects: the Bolivian Integrated Child Development Project, the tlganda Nutrition and Early Child Development Project, and the Philip- 14 Poverty and Social Development

21 pine Early Childhood Development National Investment Longitudinal Household Survey Data: Some Tests for Three Program. Developing Country Samples." Demographic Research 5: All three case studies investigate the effect of early Behrman, Jere, Yingmei Cheng, and Petra Todd. Forthcoming. child stimulation and coaching on the age of school "Evaluating Preschool Programs When Length of Exposure enrollment and on indicators of cognitive development Varies: A Nonparametric Approach." Review of Economics and from the discipline of psychology. They also relate indi- Statistics. cators of early cognitive development to preschool nutri- Kabatereine, N. B., E. Tukahebwa, S. Brooker, Harold Alderman, tion. And all three case studies include randomized trials. and A. Hall "The Epidemiology of Intestinal Helminth But the Bolivia case study found that departures from Infections among Schoolchildren in Southern Uganda." East initial research protocols made an evaluation using a African MedicalJournal 78(6): matching method preferable. The Bolivia case study finds that greater program expo- The Geography of Poverty sure led to higher cognitive development scores. Extrapolating these to the expected increase in earnings, the This ongoing program is aimed at producing finely analysis concludes that while the program was expensive, disaggregated spatial profiles of poverty and inequality the expected present value of the gains exceeds the costs. in developing countries-or poverty maps. The program The Uganda case study finds a small but consistent includes both upstream research efforts-to refine effect on nutritional status, weaning and other feeding the methodology underpinning the production of poverty practices, cognitive development, and care giving maps-and downstream research efforts-to use poverty practices. In an analysis of the effects of deworming on maps in investigating questions of great policy child growth, it finds no clear impact, though it does significance. find that using child day care programs to deliver this The methodology centers on using statistical techservice (as well as inoculations and vitamin A supple- niques to combine multiple data sources so as to take mentation) is effective. advantage of their respective strengths. The initial idea An abstract from the Bolivia case study was trans- was to combine census data with household survey data lated into Spanish and circulated in La Paz, and a work- to produce local-level estimates of poverty and inequalshop on the Uganda case study results is planned for ity. As experience has grown, the research has been able Kampala in Results from the Philippine baseline to extend the techniques to other areas, such as estimating have been presented at an annual meeting of the nutritional status at local levels and predicting local Population Association of America in Atlanta and at a impacts of policy changes. meeting of the International Union for the Scientific The program is producing software modules that can Study of Population in Mexico City in November be applied "off the shelf' for the parts of the poverty map- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- ping procedure that lend themselves to standardization vices-harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank.org) -critical because of the technical complexity and the and Elizabeth King. With Jere Behrman, Yingmei Cheng, sometimes enormous data sets involved. In addition, it and Petra Todd, University of Pennsylvania; Patrice is producing documentation providing a step-by-step Engle, UNICEF; Donald Bundy, Oxford University; description of the methodology. N. B. Kabatereine, Vector Control Division, Uganda; The program has emphasized disseminating results to Pia Britto, Columbia University; and Arjumand Siddiqi, peers, to ensure broad professional endorsement and Harvard School of Public Health. thus avoid transferring to developing countries a methodology that is suspect. The program has also devoted Reports resources to training activities to respond to the strong Alderman, Harold, Jere Behrman, Hans-Peter Kohler, John A. interest in developing countries in acquiring the technical Maluccio, and Susan Cotts Watkins "Attrition in skills to produce poverty maps. These activities occur on Poverty and Social Development 15

22 two fronts: the "training of trainers" (generally highly (June 2002), Bishkek (June 2002), Sao Paulo (July 2002), qualified statisticians and econometricians from indus- Mexico City (August 2002), Hyderabad and New Delhi trial and developing countries) and the training of (October 2002), Nairobi (October 2002), Amsterdam technical staff in developing countries. (February 2003), and New York (March 2003), as well as The program has been a useful vehicle for stimulat- at Cornell University (October 2001), Oxford University ing interest in making better use of existing data sources (March 2002), and Williams College (October 2002). At and for strengthening capacity within government the World Bank results have contributed to a Living statistical agencies. In Kenya, for example, poverty Standards Nleasurement Study module in a Development mapping activities strengthened the capacity for Research Group course on poverty measurement. statistical analysis more generally. The joint work with Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty the government (and with donor organizations) spurred Team-Peter Lanjouw (planjouw@a)worldbank.org), Berk interest in additional analytic work, resulting in training Ozler, and Qinghua Zhao. With Johan Mistiaen, for Central Bureau of Statistics staff. University of Maryland; Johannes Hoogeveen and Chris Moreover, the methodology has led to downstream Elbers, Free ltniversity, Amsterdam; Jean 0. Lanjouw, research investigating a range of questions. The Mada- Yale University and Brookings Institution; Phillippe G. gascar poverty map is being used with other data sources Leite, Pontificia Universidade Cat6lica, Rio de Janeiro; to address such issues as the effect of nutrition programs, Yoko Kijima, Michigan State University; Gabriel Demomthe ex ante welfare effects of government programs, and bynes, University of California at Berkeley; and Matthias the links between deforestation, infrastructure, and Schuendeln, Yale University. poverty. The South Africa poverty map was used to investigate the relationship between local inequality Reports and crime. Alderman, Harold, Miriam Babita, Gabriel Demombynes, That the research has had broad impact is shown by Nthabiseng Makhatha, and Berk Ozler "How Low Can the fact that some 30 countries have launched poverty You Go? Combining Census and Survey Data for Nlapping mapping activities. This interest shows no sign of Poverty in South Africa." Journal of African Economies 11(2): waning. In fiscal the program provided advice, technical guidance, and supervision on poverty maps in Elbers, Chris, Jean 0. Lanjouw, Peter Lanjouv, and Phillippe G. Albania, Bolivia, Bulgaria, Cambodia, China, Ecuador, Leite "Poverty and Inequality in Brazil: New Estimates Indonesia, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Kenya, the Kyrgyz from Combined PPV-PNAD Data." World Bank, Develop- Republic, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Madagascar, Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua Hoogeveen, Johannes "Census-Based Welfare Estimates for New Guinea, South Africa, Thailand, Uganda, and Small Populations: Poverty and Disability in TUganda." Zambia. Hoogeveen, Johannes, T. Emwanu, and P. Okiira Okwi In fiscal the program also organized two con- "Updating Small Area Welfare Estimates in the Absence of a ferences: the Poverty Mapping Conference in Amster- New Census." dam in October 2002, to disseminate findings to Kijima, Yoko, and Peter Lanjouw "Poverty in India during academics, multilateral institutions, and nongovern- the 1990s: A Regional Perspective." Policy Research Working mental organizations; and, with Columbia University's Paper World Bank, Developmcnt Research Group, Wash- Center for International Earth Science Information Net- ington, D.C. work, the Global Poverty Mapping Conference at Colum- Lanjouw, Peter "Estimating Geographically Disaggregated bia University in March In addition, presentations Welfare Levels and Changes." In Fran,ois Bourguignon and on poverty mapping were made at seminars and confer- Luiz Ilereira da Silva, eds., The Impact of Economic Policies on ences in Helsinki (June 2001), Pretoria (November 2001), Poverty and Income Distribution: Evaluation Techniques and 70o0s. Fortaleza (January 2002), Almaty (June 2002), Beijing New Work: Oxford ULniversity Press. 16 Poverty and Social Development

23 Nlistiaen,JohanA.,BerkOzler,TiarayRazafimanantena,andJean Razafindravonona "Putting Welfare on the Map in Nladagascar." Africa Region Working Paper 34. World Bank, W7ashington, D.C. The Impact of Changes in Prices, Taxes, Subsidies, and Stipends on Poverty Policies affecting the prices of goods-through import tar- iffs, sales and other indirect taxes, price subsidies, and stipends-have important effects on the poor, and there are many such policies. But the tools that have existed for evaluating the impact on poverty of changes in such Duclos, Jean-Yves, Paul Makdissi, and Quentin Wodon. Forthpolicies have limitations. MIost important, the tools do not provide tests for the robustness of the analysis-and thus the policy conclusions-to alternative values for. "Poverty-Efficient Program Reforms: The Role of Tarthe poverty measure, the indicator of well-being, and the poverty line used. Without such tests, analysts risk sug- gesting policy changes that may end up being regressive. This research project aimed to develop and test new ana- lytic tools to improve the design of policies relating to prices, taxes, subsidies, stipends, and related instruments. tating their use by a wider group of researchers. In addition, the tools were used in several training events for researchers from developing countries, particularly in Africa. As a result, these researchers are now preparing papers using the tools. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Front Office-Quentin Wodon (qwodon@worldbank.org). With Jean-Yves Duclos, Laval University, Canada; and Paul Makdissi, Sherbrooke University, Canada. Reports coming. "Poverty-Reducing Tax Reforms with Hererogenous Agents." Journal of Public Economic Theory. geting and Allocation Rules." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Washington, D.C.. "Socially Efficient Tax Reforms." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Washington, D.C. Makdissi, Paul, and Quentin Wodon "Consumption Dominance Curves: Testing for the Impact of Indirect Tax The project first developed new graphical and statistical Reforms on Poverty." Economics Letters 75: tests of stochastic dominance to allow robust assessments of the effect of different types of policies on poverty, inequality, and social welfare. It then extended these tools to take into account the targeting effects of programs and policies (who is affected and who is not) and their alloca- tion effects (to what extent households or individuals are affected). The tools were also extended to take into account differences in need between households. While the project focused on developing new tools, it also included applications of the tools to householdlevel data for several Latin American countries. Research in NMexico found that programs of cash transfers to farmers tend to have good targeting performance but a weak allocation mechanism compared with other transfer programs. And work on indirect taxation in several Latin American countries showed that increasing taxes on some goods while reducing taxes on goods consumed more by the poor may reduce inequality. The tools have been integrated into the DAD (Distributional Analysis-Analyse Distribute) software developed at the University of Laval in Canada, facili-. Forthcoming. "Fuel Poverty and Access to Electricity: Comparing Households When They Differ in Need." Applied Economics.. "Migration, Poverty, and Housing: Welfare Comparisons Using Sequential Stochastic Dominance." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Washington, D.C.. "Robust Poverty Comparisons and Marginal Policy Reform Orderings under Income Variability." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Washington, D.C. The Impact of Growth on Poverty in Latin America: Maximum Entropy Estimates and Analysis When helping client countries set targets for poverty reduction or assessing progress toward those targets, World Bank staff confront the difficult problem of evaluating the elasticity of poverty reduction to growth and explaining why this elasticity may differ between countries or between sectors within a country. This research applied new econometric methods to analyze the relationships between poverty, growth, and inequality in Poverty and Social Development 17

24 Golan, American University; and Shlomo Yitzhaki, Hebrew University. Reports Duclos, Jean-Yves, and Quentin Wodon. "What Is Pro-Poor?" World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Washington, D.C. Hicks, Norman, and Quentin Wodon "Reaching the Millennium Development Goals in Latin America: Preliminary Results." En Breve 8. World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Jayasuriya, Ruwan, and Quentin Wodon Efficiency in Reach- ingthemillennium Development Goals. World Bank Working Paper 9. Washington, D.C.. "Changes in Productive Efficiency and Sigma- Convergence." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Wash- ington, D.C. Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki. "Does Growth Lead to Deprivation?" World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Wash- ington, D.C.. "Growth and Convergence: An Alternative Empirical Framework." World Bank, Africa Technical Families, Wash- ington, D.C. The Impact of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Reform on the Poor Adequately assessing the effect on the poor of reform relating to trade and foreign direct investment will require improving the data on key parameters in the models used. For example, one key data requirement of the analysis is the shares of capital, skilled labor, and unskilled labor used in different productive sectors-information that is notoriously inaccurate in the input-output tables. This project involves econometric work to provide the data improvements needed for analyzing the effect on the poor of trade and foreign direct investment reforms. This work would make it possible to modify the crucial information on the shares of value added that go to unskilled labor in different sectors. It would also allow assessment of why the labor share of income is so much higher in household budget surveys than in national accounts. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-David Tarr Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole and in selected countries in that region. The aim was to obtain better estimates of the elasticity of poverty reduction to growth-taking into account the effect of growth on inequality-and to analyze why elasticity differs across countries or sectors. The research applied generalized maximum entropy methods, which facilitate estimations when the number of data points is small. Estimations of the elasticity of poverty reduction to growth confirmed that higher initial inequality has a nonlinear effect on this elasticity, while higher initial poverty does not have such an effect. The project also extended in several other directions. Using stochastic frontier estimation techniques, it investigated the relationship between growth, public spending, and progress toward Millennium Development Goals relating to health and education. This work confirmed that beyond greater resources, reaching these goals will require more efficient use of existing resources. Other work, relying on the Gini index of mobility, examined the link between growth, poverty, and inequality, on the one hand, and mobility and convergence, on the other. Largely methodological, this work focused on the measurement of convergence and the link between changes in technical efficiency and convergence. Finally, the study developed new and better methods, based on stochastic dominance techniques, for robust tests of whether growth is pro-poor. Some of the methods developed by the project are being used in subsequent work, such as a World Bank study on the Millennium Development Goals. The work has provided input into the preparation of the World Bank's WorldDevelopmentReport2003:SustainableDevelopment in a Dynamic World (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002). The research has also contributed to studies on growth in Central America, the Southern States Development Strategy in Mexico, and public spending and the poor in Latin America. Research findings have been presented in seminars, mostly in Israel and the United States. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Front Office-Quentin Wodon (qwodon@worldbank.org) and Ruwan Jayasuriya. With Jean-Yves Duclos, Laval University, Canada; Amos 18 Poverty and Social Development

25 Initiatives for Improved Data on Poverty by welfare levels, a feature unavailable in similar dataand Inequality bases. The welfare measures (consumption and income aggregates) are being constructed for the greatest The World Bank is the leading producer of data on comparability possible, using the harmonized indicators poverty and inequality, ranging from household survey and standard techniques for dealing with missing or data to compilations of summary statistics drawn from incomplete data. The work has been done in close colthese data. This research program is aimed at improving laboration with the World Bank's Africa Region, which the data and methodological tools that the World Bank is creating harmonized files from its household survey uses for monitoring and describing poverty and inequal- data sets. Once completed, the two databases will be ity and for assessing policies designed to reduce poverty- rolled out with the Development Data Group's Data to ensure that these data and tools remain the best Dissemination Project. available. The program has also supported a major revision The research program has several components. One of the World Bank's Global Poverty Monitoring datais rebuilding from scratch a set of consumption and base, which was made public at the release of the Bank's income distributions and other social sector outcome l1'orld Development Indicators 2004 (Washington, D.C., indicators for developing and transition economies. '1'his 2004). In addition, the program has supported work work will produce greater comparability than ever before on a new Web site (PovcalNet) to enhance external and result in an interactive, user-friendly database that access to the data sets being developed as part of the will greatly enhance the accessibility of the data. A sec- Global Poverty Monitoring task. This will allow users to ond component focuses on measuring poverty using replicate the World Bank's global poverty estimates such data. A third expands the poverty data available by based on the dollar-a-day poverty measure, for example, showing how existing data sources can be linked (see the or to perform their own estimates under alternative abstract in this volume for the Geography of Poverty). And assumptions. another takes advantage of the new data generated by One strand of the work on methodological tools has the first three components as well as new methodolog- focused on how to deal with the discrepancies between ical tools to advance our knowledge of the effects of surveys and national accounts as part of a wider effort to policies and programs on poverty and inequality. improve the cross-country databases for assessing progress A large part of the work in this program is the Com- toward the Millennium Development Goal for global parative Living Standards Project, designed to facilitate poverty. This work has developed a new method for theuseoflivingstandardsn\measurementstudy(l \1l1 correcting survey data for selective compliance. The survey data by both "high end" and "low end" users. A method allows rigorous testing of alternative explanations variety of analysts and researchers use the data sets from for the (often worrying) discrepancies between national each LSMS survey, but the utilization can be improved accounts and survey data-discrepancies that can seriand expanded. The Comparative Living Standards Pro- ously cloud assessments of progress toward the Millenject is creating two databases for this purposc. nium Development Goals. The first results suggest that The first is a searchable database of meta data, surveys tend to underestimate inequality, though the designed to help users search across all LSNIS data sets impacts on poverty are small. A pilot application to the to determine which surveys contain information on top- UJnited States shows that a large share of the discrepancy ics of interest. The second contains a subset of indica- between surveys and national accounts in that country tors common to most LSNIS surveys. These indicators can be attributed to selective compliance in survey are being harmonized for comparability across countries designs. Other applications are planned. and years. The database will permit users to create quick, This work has also developed methods for calculaton-the-fly tables allowing comparisons of key indica- ing purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates using tors. And it will allow key indicators to be broken down unit value data from household surveys. Application of Poverty and Social Development 19

26 terparts and disseminated through World Bank Institute courses. Results from the work described here and related analysis (see the abstract in this volume for Why Are Some Growth Processes More Pro-Poor Than Others?) have been widely disseminated. In 2002 results were pre- sented at an African Economic Research Consortium workshop (Nairobi), the Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society (Sao Paulo), the annual meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (Madrid), the Northeast Universities Development Consortium Conference (Williams College), the annual conference of the Population Association of America (Atlanta), the annual retreat of the U.K. Department for International Development, the World Institute for Development Economics Research conference on Spa- tial Inequality and Development (London), and the World Bank Economists' Forum. Results were also pre- sented at seminars and conferences at the Asia Devel- opment Forum, Boston University, Columbia University, the Delhi School of Economics, the European Economic Association, Georgetown University, the Indian Statis- tical Institute, the Institute of Fiscal Studies (London), the International Association for the Review of Income and Wealth (Stockholm), the London School of Eco- nomics, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Rand Institute, University College London, the University of Massachusetts, the University of Michigan, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, and Yale University. In 2003 results were presented at the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, a con- ference on Conversations between Economists and Anthropologists (Goa, India), a conference on Develop- ment Anthropology at London University's School of Oriental and African Studies, a conference on Global Poverty at Columbia University, a National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) conference on Globaliza- tion, Poverty, and Inequality (Boston), the NBER Sum- mer Institute, the Northeast tjniversities Development Consortium Conference, the annual conference of the Population Association of America (Minneapolis), and the World Bank's Latin American and Caribbean Growth Conference (Bogota). Results were also presented at the method to data from India and Indonesia yields different PPPs than conventional methods. Other work has been exploring what can be learned about people's welfare from qualitative data based on selfrated perceptions. One finding is that subjective perceptions of economic welfare can differ substantially from standard objective measures. Data for the Russian Federation suggest that people give greater weight to such factors as exposure to risk, ill health, and larger family size than is assumed by standard measures used in the World Bank's poverty profiles. 'I'his work has also explored ways of measuring empowerment using self-perceptions of power. 'Fhat study has found a high correlation in data for Russia between perceived power and economic welfare, both subjectively and objectively assessed. Individual empowerment tends to go hand-in-hand with greater economic welfare. Another important focus has been developing and applying better tools for evaluating the impact of antipoverty programs. Studies have combined different ex post evaluation methods to assess the poverty impact of social protection programs, taking into account behavioral responses. The methods range from randomization and baseline surveys before the project starts to difference-in-differences and matching methods after the program is in place. This work has emphasized developing evaluation methods that can be feasibly applied in typical operational settings. Many lessons have emerged. One lesson: neither randomization nor baseline surveys are essential for credible ex post impact assessments-but high-quality data are critical. The program's poverty data and monitoring tasks have been high-profile activities in the international development community. 'I'he results have often had a prominent place in discussions on ensuring that growth reduces poverty, including in the context of the Millennium Development Goals. The work on impact evaluation, conducted in close collaboration with World Bank project managers and government counterparts, has shown how rigorous impact evaluation can be built into the preparation of operational projects. In some cases the evaluation results influenced lending operations. The methodology and research findings have been shared with country coun- 20 Poverty and Social Development

27 seminars and conferences at the American Economic 2911.WorldBank,DevelopmentResearchGroup,\\.bir;,. Association, Columbia University, Cornell UJniversity, D.C. the European Economics Association (Stockholm), Fun "Micro-Level Estimation of Poverty and Inequalda,co Getulio Vargas (Rio de Janeiro), Georgetown Uni- ity." Econometrica 71(1): versity, the German Coouncil of Foreign Relations (Berlin), "tusing Imputed Welfare Estimates in Regression Hanoi National Economic University, Harvard ttniver- Analysis." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washsity, the Institute for Social and Economic Change (Ban- ington, D.C. galore), the International MNonetary Fund, the Latin Elbers, Chris, Peter Lanjouw, Johan Nistiacn, Berk Ozler, and Ken- American and Caribbean Economic Association (Puebla, neth Simler. Forthcoming. "Are Neighbors Equal? Estimating Mexico), Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced Inequality in Three Developing Countries." In Ravi Kanbur International Studies, Mlanchester University, the Mas- and Anthony J. Venables, eds., Spatial Inequalitv and Developsachusetts Institute of lechnology, Pontificia Universi- ment. New York: Oxford tuniversity Press. dade Cat6lica (Rio de Janeiro), Siena Summer School, the Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Peter Lanjouw," and Marcelo Neri UTnited Nations Development Programme's Human "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil UJsing Multiple Data Development Report Office, the University of Maryland, Sources." Revista Brasileira de Economia 57(1): the World Institmte for Development Economics Lokshin, Michael, and Nlartin Ravallion. Forthcoming. "Rich and Research, and Y ale UTniversitv. Powerful? Subjective Power and Welfare in Russia." Journal of The latest results from this and related research are Economic Behavior and Otganization. available on the Wecb at Mlistiaen, Johan "Small Area Estimates of Welfare Impacts: programs/poverty/. The Case of Food Price Changes in Madagascar." WVorld Bank, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Team-Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank.org), Nlistiaen, Johan, and NMartin Ravallion "Survey Compli- Kathleen Beegle, Shaohua Chen, Calogero Carletto, ance and the Distribution of Income." Policy Research Work- Branko Nlilanovic, Kinnon Scott, Diane Steele, Peter ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group. Lanjouw, Berk Ozler, Emanucla Galasso, and Vijayen- Washington, D.C. dra Rao. WNith Angus Deaton, Princeton UTniversitv. Ozler, Berk "Can Change Be Good for the Poor, But Bad Reports for Poverty Reduction?" World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Deaton, Angus, and Jed Friedman Purchasing Power Rao, \ijaycndra, and Nlichael Woolcock "Integrating Qual- Parity Exchange Rates from Household Survey l)ata: India and Indonesia." World Bank, D)evelopment Research Group, Wash- ington, D).C. Demombynes, Gabriel, and Berk Ozler "(Crime and Local Ine(lualitv in South Africa." Policy Rescarch Working Paper WNorld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Demombvncs, Gabriel, (Chris Elbers, Jean 0. Lanjouwx, Peter Lan- jouwv Johan Nlistiaen. and Berk Ozler. Forthcoming. "Produc- ing a Better Geographic Profile of Povcrtv: N lethodology and Evidence from 'I'hree Developing C(ountries." In Anthony Shorrocks and Rolph van dcr Hoeven, eds., Growth, Inequalitv, itative and Quantitative Approaches in Program Evaluation." In Fran,ois Bourguignon and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds., The Inpact of Economic Poliies on Povertv and Income Distribution: Eval- uation Techniques and Too/s. New York: Oxford tuniversity Press. Ravallion, NMartin "Assessing the Poverty Impact of an Assigned Program." In Fran,ois Bourguignon and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds., 7he Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty andincome D)istribution: Evaluation Techniques and Tools. New York: Oxford UTniversity Press "NMeasuring Aggregate Welfare in Developing Coun- tries: How Well Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?" and Poverty: Pcospects for Pro-Poor Economic Development. Oxford: Review of Economics and Statistics 85(3): Oxford University Press "On Mleasuring Aggregate Social Efficiency." Pol- Elbers, Chris. Jean 0. Lanjouw, and Peter Lanjouw "Mlicro- Level Estimation of Welfare." l'olicv Research Working Paper icy Research WVorking Paper 3166.World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Poverty and Social Development 21

28 Ravallion, Martin, and Michael Lokshin "Self-Rated Eco- and the issues it raises. In preparation for the conference nomic Welfare in Russia." European Economic Review 46(8): a consultative edition of the report has been posted on the Web so that readers can submit comments, at "On the Utility Consistency of Poverty Lines." Pol- wblnoo18.worldbank.org/lac/lac.nsf/ecadocbyunid/ icy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development 146E B BA E C B B 005C29B4?Open Research Group, Washington, D.C. document. Ravallion, Martin, Emanuela Galasso, Teodoro Lazo, and Ernesto Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Philipp. Forthcoming. "What Can Ex-Participants Reveal about ment Network, Office of the Vice President and Head a Program's Impact?" Journal of Human Resources. of Network-Indermit S. Gill (igill@worldbank.org) and Todd Pugatch; and Latin America and the Caribbean Keeping the Promise Region, Social Protection Sector Unit-Truman G. of Old Age Income Security Packard. With Juan Yermo. in Latin America and the Caribbean Reports This study takes stock of structural, "multipillar" reforms Azuara, Oliver "The Mexican Defined Contribution System: to social security systems in Latin America, measuring Perspective for Low-Income Workers." World Bank, Poverty the reforms against their promised benefits in several key Reduction and Economic Management Network, Office of areas-fiscal sustainability, labor market efficiency, cap- the Vice President and Head of Network, Washington, ital market development, and reduction in poverty and D.C. inequality. It then considers the implications for policy. Barr, Abigail, and Truman Packard "Revealed Preferences TIhe study draws on the recent literature as well as and Self-Insurance: Can We Learn from the Self-Employed in empirical work for commissioned background papers Chile?" World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Man- (including regression analysis, mathematical simulations, agement Network, Office of the Vice President and Head of household surveys, and country case studies). It finds that Network, Washington, D.C. reforms have: "Preferences for Pooling or Savings? Time Prefer- * Improved fiscal sustainability, though transition ence, Risk Aversion, and Contribution to Peru's Pension Syscosts have in some cases been higher than expected. tem." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic * Channeled substantial savings to the financial ManagementNetwork,OfficeoftheVicePresidentandHead sector and helped modernize regulations, though of Network, Washington, D.C. pension funds remain highly exposed to sovereign risk Escobar, Federico "Pension Reform in Bolivia: A Review in most countries. of Approach and Experience." World Bank, Poverty Reduction * Improved the equity of social security benefits and Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice Presamong the covered population, but without extending ident and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. access to a broader segment of society. Fiess, Norbert "Pension Reform or Pension Default? A The stagnation of coverage ratios is a significant disappointment in the effort to reduce the risk of old age poverty, despite the notable successes of multipillar Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, Washingreforms in the region. Note on Pension Reform and Country Risk." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, ton, D.C. The findings make a case for deeper reforms, with Gill, Indermit S., Truman Packard, and Juan Yermo greater attention to the poverty prevention function of Keeping the Promise of Old Age Income Security in Latin America. social security and a smaller role for mandated savings. Regional Studies Program. World Bank, Latin America and A conference will be held on June 22-23, 2004, in the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Bogotd, Colombia, to discuss with regional policymak- Packard, Truman "Are There Positive Incentives from ers and academics the report produced by this study Privatizing Social Security? A Panel Analysis of Pension 22 Poverty and Social Development

29 Reform in Latin America." Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 1(2). A Manual on Tools for Poverty Analysis "Pooling, Savings, and Prevention: Mitigating the There is much demand among World Bank staff, client Risk of Old Age Poverty in Chile." World Bank, Poverty Reduc- countries, and nongovernmental organizations and other tion and Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice partners for adequate ex ante and ex post evaluation of President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. poverty reduction and pro-poor growth strategies. That Packard, Truman, Naoko Shinkai, and Ricardo Fuentes need is partly met by methods now available, both qual- "The Reach of Social Security in Latin America and the itative and quantitative. But users sometimes lack full Caribbean." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic knowledge of the strengths and limitations of thcse Management Network, Office of the Vice President and Head methods, their applicability to specific policy issues and of Network, Washington, D.C. contexts, and their requirements (for data and human Rofman, Rafael "The Pension System and the Crisis in resotirccs, for example). Argentina: Learning the Lessons." World Bank, Poverty Reduc- The need for practical, easy-to-use analytic tools has tion and Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice led to an effort by the World Bank's Development Eco- President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. nomics Senior Vice Presidency and Poverty Reduction Valdes, Salvador "Improving Programs That Mandate and Economic Nlanagement Network-in collaboration Savings for Old Age." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and with such stakeholders as the World Bank's regional vice Economic Management Network, Office of the Vice presidencies, the World Bank Institute, and the Inter- President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. national Mlonetarv Fund-to produce and assemble a tool "Justifying Mandated Savings for Old Age." World kit for evaluating economic policies for poverty reduc- Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, tion. The tool kit is designed to: Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, Washing- * Help users evaluate policy choices on the basis of ton, D.C. their impact on income distribution and poverty "Social Security Coverage in Chile, " * Help users identify the best method for ex ante and World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management ex post evaluation of the impact of policies on income Network, Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, distribution and poverty. Washington, D.C. * Provide the current best practices for applying the Yermo, Juan "Delivering Promises in the Chilean Funded evaluation methods. Pension System." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Eco- * Assess the strengths and limitations of each method, nomic Management Network, Office of the Vice President identify its data requirements, and highlight problems and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. associated with it "Funded Pensions, the Financial Sector, and Macro- * Provide a typology of results obtained using each economic Stability: A Balancing Act." World Bank, Poverty method. Reduction and Economic Management Network, Office of * Provide useful references for further research. the Vice President and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. Three workshops on elements of the tool kit wcre held "The Performance of Funded Pension Systems in in WVashington, D.C., in February and April 2003, and two Latin America." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Eco- more, on micro and macro tools, in May nomic Management Network, Office of the Vice President Responsibility: Development Economics, Office of the Senior and Head of Network, Washington, D.C. Vice President and Chief Economist-Luiz Pereira da Zviniene, Asta, and Truman Packard "A Simulation of Social Silva (Ipereiradasilva@wvorldbank.org) and Fran,ois Bour- Security Reforms in Latin America: What Has Been Gained?" guignon; Development Research Group, Poverty Team- World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Peter Lanjouw, Vijayendra Rao, NMartin Ravallion, Kinnon Network, Office of the Vice President and Head of Network, Scott, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Nlichael Woolcock, Washington, D.C. and Public Services-Jakob Svensson, Dominiquc van Poverty and Social Development 23

30 de Walle, and Ritva Reinikka; Development Prospects Group-Dominique van der Mensbrugghe; East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management ttnit-gaurav Datt and Jehan Arulpragasam; Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction and Economic NManagement 1-Delfin S. Go, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 2-Lionel Demery, and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Front Office-Quentin Wodon and Krishnan Ramadas; Human Development Network-Shantayanan Devarajan; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Poverty Reduction Group-Boniface Essama- Nssah. With Patrick Conway, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Jan Dehn, Credit Suisse First Boston; NMoataz El-Said, Hans Lofgren, and Sherman Robinson, International Food Policy Research Institute; Jeffery I. Round, University of Warwick; David E. Sahn, Cornell University; Issouf Samake; Thomas Walker, Reserve Bank of Australia; and Stephen D. Younger, Cornell University. Reports Bourguignon, Francois, and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds The Impact of Economic Policies on Povertv and Income Distribution: Eva/aation Thrhniques and Tools. New York: Oxford UIniversity Press. -Forthcoming. The Impact of Alacroeconomic Policies on Poverty andln(co,edistribltion:.lacro-,ificrolinkagemilodels. New York: Oxford University Press. Microfinance Impact Evaluation NMeasuring the economic impact of microfinance programs and institutions is fraught with methodological difficulties, and studies often lead to contradictory results even when using the same data. There is no consensus supportcd by hard scientific evidence on the best methodology for evaluating this impact. This study proposes an alternative methodology for measuring the effect of delivering credit to microentrepreneurs. It is undertaking the first randomized control experiment to assess this effect, focusing on CrediAmigo, a microlending initiative of the Brazilian development bank Banco do Nordeste and the largest microfinance program in Brazil. The methodology involves randomly assigning clients to treatment and control groups by relaxing some eligibility criteria for participating in the microcredit program. The project will conduct a baseline survey followed by another survey 6-12 months later. The study will also assess the program's targeting of poor people. By mapping the baseline survey data to existing data on microentrepreneurs in Brazil, it can inform CrediAmigo about how it is doing in reaching poor people. This issue is critical, since CrediAmigo is among the most important pillars of the Brazilian government's fight against poverty. The results not only will help CrediAmigo better understand its impact and how it can improve its operations, but also will address a worldwide knowledge gap about how microcredit is or is not contributing to poverty reduction. The experimental approach used in the study is one that microfinance institutions could easily apply. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Finance Cluster-Susana M. Sanchez (ssanchez@ worldbank.org) and Poverty Sector-Emmanuel Skoufias. With Pedro Olinto, International Food Policy Research Institute; and Dean Karlan, Princeton Ulniversity. A New Analytic Framework for Evaluating Social Programs This research introduced a new analytic framework for evaluating social programs and policies. The framework, which builds on the concept of the Gini income elasticity, takes into account not only flexible distributional weights for translating individual welfare gains into aggregate social gains but also the targeting performance of programs and the allocation of benefits among program participants. The research developed the new framework, along with variations on it, and applied the techniques to empirical data on social transfer programs, mostly in Latin America but also elsewhere. In addition, work with panel data for some of the empirical applications led to a proposed new measure of income mobility in rela- tion to the Gini index of inequality. This Gini index of mobility makes explicit a simple link between the concepts of inequality, mobility, and horizontal equity. 24 Poverty and Sociol Development

31 The research found that evaluations of the perfor- Clert, Carinne, and Quenrin Wodon "'I'he Targeting of mance of programs can be highly sensitive to the weights Government Programs in Chilc: A Quantitative and Qualitain the social welfare framework used for the evaluations. tive Assessment." In NVorld Bank, rhiles High Grouth Economy: In addition, it found that the impact of programs can be Poverty and Income Distribution, World Bank Coundecomposed in various ways, including to show who trv Study. Washington. D.C. benefits from a program and how the benefits vary among Siaens, Corinne, and Quentin NVodon "Food Subsidies and program participants. And the research showed that the Consumption Inequality in Nlexico." StatisticslEstad/&stia. techniques it developed can be applied using grouped Wodon, Quentin "Income Nlobility and Risk during the Busidata, which makes them attractive for cases where ness Cycle." Economics of 7ransition 9(2): researchers lack unit-level data from a household survey. Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki "Evaluating the The tools and related findings were presented in Impact of Government Programs on Social Welfare: 'he Role workshops and conferences in Africa, Asia, and Latin of Targeting and the Allocation Rules among Program Benefi- America. 'T'hese presentations focused on the evaluation ciaries." Public Finance Review 30(2): module of the SimSIP (Simulations for Social Indicators "Inequality and Social Welfare." In Jeni Kllugman, and Poverty) family of Excel-based tools, which incor- ed., A Sourcebook for Poverty Reduction Strategies. Vol. 1, Core porates some of the tools developed in the research, Techniques and Cross-C'utting Issues. NVashington. I).C.: NVorld facilitating their use by a wider group of researchers. In Bank. addition, some of the methods developed in the research "'l'he Effect of I sing Group Data on the Estimation are being used in subsequent work. of the Gini Income Elasticity." EconomiicsLetters 78(2): Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduc "Inequality and the Accounting Period." Economtion and Economic Management Front Office- ics Bulletin 4(36): 1-8. Quentin Wodon (qwodon@worldbank.org) and Corinne Wodon, Quentin, Benedicre de la Briere, Corinnc Siaens, and Siacns; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Shlomo Yitzhaki "The Impact of Public 'I'ransfcrs on ment Network, International Trade Department- Inequalitv and Social NVelfare: Comparing Nlexico's Nlohamed Ihsan Ajwad. With Shlomo Yitzhaki, Hebrew PROGRESA to Other Government Programs." Research on University. EconomicInequality 10: Reports Ajwad, Nlohamed Ihsan, and Quentin Wodon "Who Benefits from Increased Access to Public Services at the Local Level? A Marginal Benefit Incidence Analysis for Education and Basic Infrastructure." In Shantayanan Devarajan and E Yitzhaki, Shlomo, and Quentin WVodon. Forthcoming. "NIlobility, Inequality, and Horizontal Equity." In Daniel J. Slottje, ed., Research on Economic Inequalit: A Research Annual. Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press. Patterns of Inequality Halsey Rogers, eds., Ilorld Bank Economists' Forum. Vol. 2. Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank. Whether global inequality has increased or decreased is - Forthcoming. "Access to Public Services in Sri Lanka: a question generating much debate. Complicating the A Mlarginal Benefit Incidence Analysis." Sri Lanka Economic debate, the evidence brought to bear oftcn comes from Journal, sources of doubtful value. One source widely used in the Forthcoming. "NIarginal Benefit Incidence Analysis t lsing literature is the Deininger-Squire database on income disa Single Cross-Scction of Data." Applied Economics Letters. tribution, developed at the World Bank in That Castro-Fernandez, Rodrigo, and Quentin Wodon "Protect- database provides a useful point of refercnce. To rcmain ing the UInemployed in Chile: From State Assistance to Indi- relevant, however, it must incorporate information from vidual Insurance?" In World Bank, Chile' High Growth Economy: new household surveys. T his project updated the data- Povertv and Incomne Distribution, World Bank base through systematic computation of inequality Country Study. WVashington, D.C. indexes based on household surveys. Poverty and Social Development 25

32 Role of inequality and heterogeneity. Theoretical work has shown that economic inequality need not constrain collective action, but empirical work has shown mixed results. Many studies find a U-shaped relationship between inequality and project outcomes. Most empirical studies that have attempted to measure social fractionalization have shown that it tends to inhibit col- lective action. In the end, the success of communitydriven projects may also be affected by how well heterogeneity is managed. Capture. Even in the most egalitarian societies elites will almost always dominate a community-driven process of choosing, constructing, and managing a public good. This may not always represent "capture," in the sense that elites appropriate all the benefits. But when local cultures and systems of social organization result in tight control of community decisions by elites, more malevo- lent forms of capture become likely. The evidence shows, for example, that targeting is markedly worse in more unequal communities, particularly when power is concentrated among elites. Naive concepts. Key concepts underlying the theory of community-driven development-partiaipation, commu- nity, social capital-need to be treated critically. A naive application of such concepts could lead to poor project design and outcomes seriously at odds with stated intentions. Sustainability. Several qualitative studies show that the sustainability of community-driven initiatives depends crucially on an enabling institutional environment. Line ministries need to be responsive to the needs of commu- nities, and national governments committed to the idea of transparent, accountable, and democratic governance. Role of external agents. Qualitative evidence suggests that the role of external agents, such as project facilita- tors, is key to the success of community-driven devel- opment efforts. Projects often work with young, inexperienced facilitators whose incentives are not aligned with the best interests of the community. Knowledge about the effect of incentive systems and heterogeneity among street-level agents on the success of projects is limited, however. Evaluations and learning-by-doing. Since the success of community-driven development is crucially conditioned Analysis of the data finds that, contrary to conventional wisdom, it is difficult to identify a distinct trend in inequality after accounting for the increase in Eastern European countries. At the same time the large differences in inequality across regions have largely persisted. Preliminary results were presented at the 2003 annual meetings of the American Economic Association. The database will be made publicly available on the Web. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development-Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@aworldbank.org). With Lyn Squire, Global Development Network; and Kihoon Lee, ttniversity of Maryland. Review of Community-Based and -Driven Development Programs In the past decade many governments and development agencies, including the World Bank, have enthusiastically embraced community-driven development programs, substantially increasing funding for such programs. But does the analytic evidence support this optimism? 'T'his project assesses the evidence on the effectiveness of community-driven development initiatives, reviewing and synthesizing more than 200 empirical and theoretical research papers on the topic. Some of the key findings are as follows. Targeting. Decentralized community-based targeting of antipoverty programs can be better than centralized targeting, but the evidence remains limited. The evidence does not suggest that community-driven development projects have been well targeted to the poor within communities. Nloreover, under certain conditions local inequality can worsen when targeting is decentralized. Project performance. 'I'here is some evidence that community-driven projects create effective community infrastructure and improve welfare outcomes. But such evidence is missing for most projects. Moreover, studies do not establish that it is the participatory elements of projects that are responsible for improving their outcomes. Social capital. There is some quantitative evidence showing an association between social capital and project effectiveness, but the direction of causality is unclear. 26 Poverty and Social Development

33 The project also examined how well targeted decen- tralized programs and expenditures for poverty reduction are to poor communes and poor people in Vietnam. It assessed whether programs perform a safety net function, recognizing that this involves both protection from poverty and promotion from poverty. It examined the role of nonincome factors, including whether equally poor communes in different provinces are treated equally and, if not, what accounts for these differences. And it estimated the counterfactual of what household con- sumption would have been without transfers, with the counterfactual allowing for behavioral responses. The findings suggest that Vietnam's transfer pro- grams helped few people escape poverty and protected even fewer from falling into poverty. The public safety net appears to have been largely irrelevant to the coun- try's recent record of poverty reduction. In response to the analysis and recommendations of this project and others, the government of Vietnam is reviewing its flagship poverty program. by local social and cultural systems, it is best done not through wholesale application of best practices from projects successful in other contexts, but through careful learning-by-doing. This requires a long time horizon, good evaluation, and openness to learning from mistakes. But one of the most worrying findings is that most community-driven development projects lack careful evaluations with good treatment and control groups and with baseline and follow-up data. The findings have been presented at World Bank seminars, the 2003 Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics in Bangalore, and a seminar at the International Food Policy Research Institute. Within the World Bank the findings have fundamentally changed the way community-driven development is understood and led to a concerted effort to improve the evaluation of community-driven development projects. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org) and Ghazala Mansuri. Report Mansuri, Ghazala, and Vijayendra Rao. Forthcoming. "Community- Based and -Driven Development: A Critical Review." WVorld Bank Research Observer Safety Nets in an Emerging Market Economy Research results were incorporated into Vietnam Development Report 2000: Attacking Poverty (Hanoi: Government-Donor-NGO Working Group, 1999). T he results were also presented to a conference of government representatives, local nongovernmental organizations, and academics in Hanoi in Mlay Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services-Dominique van de Walle (dvandewalle@ worldbank.org). This research project assessed the effectiveness of the public safety net in Vietnam. Because of a lack of good Reports data, the study first carried out a broad qualitative assess- van de Walle, Dominique "Protecting the Poor in ment, identifying key issues on which more needs to be Vietnam's Emerging Market Economy." l ietnam :So'Joeconomiw learned. It reviewed existing public safety net programs, Development: A Social Science Review 19: the main sources of household vulnerability, and what is "Safety Nets in an Emerging Market Economy." In known about coping strategies, and outlined an agenda Jennie I. Litvack and Dennis A. Rondinelli, eds.,,uarket Reform for strengthening the main safety net programs. in Vietnam: Building InstitutionsforDevelopment. Westport, Conn.: Using the newly released 1998 Vietnam Living Stan- Quorum Books. dards Survey-which provided previously unavailable "The Static and Dynamic Incidence of Vietnam's data on policy coverage across communes and, in some Public Safety Net." Policy Research Working Paper cases, households-the study then performed quantita- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. tive analysis to better understand and assess the perfor "Testing Vietnam's Public Safety Net." Social mance of programs aimed at reducing poverty and Protection Discussion Paper319. World Bank, Human Develproviding insurance to poor households. opment Network, Social Protection Unit, Washington, D.C. Poverty and Sotiol Development 27

34 Social Status in India and the Response to Economic Opportunities Recent work in economic history provides striking evidence that historical institutions that denied large segments of the population opportunities for economic advancement have long, lingering consequences. The reason, scholars have emphasized, is the effect of past institutions on current opportunities. This research project proposes and experimentally tests an additional explanation based on the ability of historically oppressed groups to respond to opportunities. It tests the hypothesis that when an individual's social identity (caste) is made public, but not otherwise, indi "The Static and Dynamic Incidence of Vietnam's mation, low-caste subjects expect their efforts to be Public Safety Net." In Paul Glewwe, Nisha Agrawal, and LDavid poorly rewarded. Mlistrust undermines motivation. Dollar, eds., Economic Growth, Povertv, and Household IWelfare: To the extent that the findings can be generalized to Policy Lessonsfrom tietnam. NVorld Bank Regional and Sectoral economic performance, they suggest that the aggregate Study. Washington, D.C. effect on society of expectations associated with caste can be viewed as unambiguously negative, and that measures that reduce the perception of bias in the enforcement of economic rights would measurably increase individuals' efforts to escape poverty. The project has informed World Bank economic and sector work, analytic and advisory work, and lending programs in South Asia. Results have been widely circulated at the World Bank and presented at Cornell UTniversity and several conferences: the NMacArthur Conference on the Effects of Inequality, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (October 3, 2003); the Round- table on Providing Services to the Poor, Brookings Institution (December 5, 2003); and the Conference on Behavioral Economics, Public Economics, and Devel- opment Economics, London School of Economics (Nlay viduals will respond differently to economic incentives , 2004). The research focuses on India, where a national mandate Responsibility: Social Development Department-Karla R. has created new educational and political opportunities Hoff (khoff@worldbank.org); and Development Research for low castes in villages. Group, Public Services-Monica Das Gupta. With Vinod The work is based on eight experimental treatments Jairath, University of Hyderabad; and Priyanka Pandey, using 642 junior high school volunteers from a village in Pennsylvania State Uiniversit\v The WNkorld Bank-Nether- India and a survey of 270 households in an area near the lands Partnership Program and the MacArthur Foundasite of the experiment. To undertake the experiment, the tion Network on the Effects of Inequality have project trained five Indian nationals on the staffs of non- contributed funding for the research. governmental organizations. To undertake the survey, it trained a team of 20 Indian university students. Reports The experiment provides evidence that a history of Hoff. Karla R "Historical Paths to Institutional Developsocial and legal disabilities may have persistent effects ment." WorldBank Research Obser,er 18(2): through its impact on expectations. Participants are asked Hoff. Karla R., and Privanka Pandey "W'hy Are Social to perform a task (solving mazes) in response to various Inequalities So Durable? An Experimcntal Test of the Effects incentives. When participants' caste is not announced, of Indian Caste on Pcrfoirmance." World Bank, Social Develthere is no caste gap in performance, regardless of the opment Department, Washington, D).C. incentive scheme. When participants' caste is announced, low-caste but not high-caste individuals perform much Thematic Mapping of Nonincome Poverty worse, under a variety of economic incentives, compared with a control group whose caste is not announced. When Based on data from the 2002 Albania Living Standards a nonhuman factor (a random draw) is introduced that in Nleasurement Study (LSNIS) survey, the World Bank's part determines rewards, the caste gap disappears. The 2002 poverty assessment of Albania emphasized the results suggest that when caste identity is public infor- spatial dimension of poverty in the country: remote rural 28 Poverty and Social Development

35 areas in the northeast have considerably higher poverty than the rest of the country. The poverty assessment comrbined the LSMS survey data with 2001 census data to produce small area estimates of poverty and inequality. It also looked at nonincome dimensions of poverty, which compound the income deprivation, particularly in remote rural areas. This research project extends that work, creating a spatial database of nonincome poverty indicators for use in a thematic mapping exercise, to be overlaid with the poverty and inequality mapping done for the poverty assessment. Collecting statistical, administrative, and geographic information system (GIS) data from secondary sources, the project systematically compiled geographically referenced data for all available indicators of nonincome poverty at the levels of prefecture, district, and municipality or commune. In addition to providing the basis for the thematic mapping, the database will serve as an input to a spatial econometric analysis of poverty to be conducted separately. The work is still under way, but preliminary results confirm the highly spatial nature of poverty in Albania, bolstering the argument for geographic targeting of resources to the country's more destitute areas. The database provides a valuable resource for use by local and international researchers in analyzing the spatial dimension of poverty and the links between location and other determinants of welfare. The project has been conducted in close collaboration with local stakeholders, including the Albanian Statistical Institute and line ministries. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Team-Calogero Carletto. With Byron Kotzamanis and Marie Noel Duquenne, University of Thessaly. Trade Liberalization and Household Impact in Vietnam This study uses the case of Vietnam to advance research on the detailed incidence of national and sectoral trade policies (tariffs and subsidies as related to World Trade Organization accession agreements and other trade arrangements) on particular categories of households in particular regions. The research develops a methodology that brings together the richness of household-lcvcl data with broader shifts in economic variables. The approach integrates a consistent nationwide computablc general equilibrium model with a linked regional multimarket model and microsimulation of impacts at the household level based on individual records from the recently completed Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey. This approach allows better identification of the types of households likely to be positively (and negatively) affected by trade developments through a range of chan- nels. A major advance in this class of modeling efforts is the feature enabling households to respond to changes through occupational choice or mobilitv. The study applies this methodology to three poor, mountainous regions of Vietnam. The social accounting matrix for the computable gen- eral equilibrium component of the work was prepared in close collaboration with the Central Institute for Eco- nomic Management in Hanoi. Responsibility: East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduc- tion and Economic Management Sector Department- Nlartin Rama (mrama@worldbank.org). WVith David Roland-Horst, University of California at Berkelcy; and Finn Tarp, University of Copenhagen. Urban Poverty and Social Capital This project, by examining the role of social networks, intends to improve the understanding of how the urban poor cope with risk and vulnerability in India. Using a multidimensional definition of risk-encompassing health, income, housing, violence, consumption, and water and sanitation-the study attempts to extend the understanding of risk and insurance to urban areas while modeling both economic and social behaviors. The project combines qualitative and qluantitative methods. Using a case study approach focusing on slum areas in Delhi, it integrates focus group discussions and other participatory methods with economic thcory and econometric analysis of survey data. The study finds that the informal governments that form in slums play a crucial role as mediators with the Poverty and Social Development 29

36 state. And social networks in slums play an important role mean growth rate for poor people, which indicates the in determining living standards. The findings have led direction of change in a theoretically defensible measure to a better understanding of how slums are governed and of the level of poverty. of the potential for community involvement in local The research used an application to China's growth projects. process in the 1990s to illustrate the proposed measure. The research has been presented at the World Bank, In the ordinary growth rate of household income Cambridge University, the Institute of Social and per capita was more than 6 percent a year, but the Economic Change (Bangalore), and the Institute of pro-poor growth rate was 4 percent. The growth rate by Economic Growth (Delhi). quantile ranged from 3 percent for the poorest percentile Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty to 10 percent for the richest. The pro-poor growth rate Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org) and rose sharply, to about 10 percent a year, for a few years Michael Woolcock. With Arup Mitra, Institute of in the mid-1990s, an increase associated with a policy Economic Growth, Delhi; Lester Coutinho, Delhi change that greatly improved the terms of trade for University; and Saumtira Jha, Stanford University. farmers. The research program has launched a series of coun- Reports try case studies on the determinants of the rate of pro- Jha, Saumtira, Vijayendra Rao, and Michael Woolcock. "Governance poor growth. The first study completed, for India, found in the Gullies: Democratic Responsiveness and Community that the country returned to its historical rate of poverty Leadership in Delhi Slums." World Bank, Development reduction in the 1990s. But there has been no com- Research Group, Washington, D.C. pelling sign of an acceleration in poverty reduction com- Mitra, Arup Networks, Occupational Choice, and Poverty: mensurate with the higher rate of economic growth. The An Exegesis on Delhi Slums. Delhi: Manohar. study found that a large share of the gains from growth have bypassed the poor, in no small measure because the Why Are Some Growth Processes growth has not been concentrated in the sectors and More Pro-Poor Than Others? regions that matter most to the poor. A case study of Indonesia showed that while the coun- Why some growth processes are more pro-poor than try experienced rapid poverty reduction in , others is a question often asked in World Bank operations there was a dramatic reversal after the 1997 financial and client countries. Answering it requires a deeper crisis. But these aggregate findings mask substantial understanding of the role played by initial conditions diversity in growth and distributional change across (including initial inequalities) and of what drives the regions. A disaggregated analysis reveals that regional difdistributional changes seen in survey data. This research ferences in poverty persist even after controlling for the addresses this question from different perspectives, effects of provincial income levels, particularly in rural focusing on areas where new research appears to offer high areas. These findings suggest that local factors play an value added and drawing in part on data developed in important part in determining poverty and interact with related work (see the abstract in this volume for Initia- growth to affect poverty reduction in differing ways tives for Improved Data on Poverty and Inequality). across Indonesia. One strand of work has examined the theory and A second strand of work has studied the links between methods of assessing the extent to which economic economywide policy reforms and the distribution of growth is pro-poor-and what exactly that means. The living standards. One study examined the effects of research has found standard methods used in the World globalization on income distribution within rich and poor Bank to be deficient in many respects for monitoring the countries, drawing on country-level databases. This gains to the poor from economic growth. And it has research found strong evidence that at low average proposed a better measure of pro-poor growth-the income levels it is the rich who benefit from openness 30 Poverty and Social Development

37 (measured by the ratio of trade to GDP). But as income Other work has tried to unpack how communitylevels rise-to around $5,000-7,000 per capita at inter- driven development-widely touted as a pro-poor growth national prices-the poor and the middle class benefit strategy-really works and how it is driven by social as their incomes increase relative to those of the rich. networks and the quality of facilitation (see the abstract Another study examined the welfare impacts of in this volume for Review of Community-Based and China's accession to the World Trade Organization, com- -Driven Development Programs). These social and bining general equilibrium analysis with unusually rich cultural aspects of poverty analysis require new techhousehold survey data to produce highly disaggregated niques mixing quantitative and qualitative methods. estimates. The study found negligible impacts on inequal- Closely related work has investigated the socioity and poverty in the aggregate. But diverse effects economic determinants of local-level success in emerge across household types and regions, associated reaching the poor. One study assessed the local accountwith heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income ability and targeting performance of decentralized sources, with possible implications for compensatory antipoverty programs in Bangladesh. This studypolicy responses. among the first to use household data to define, measure, Yet another study developed a rapid response tool to and explain targeting performance in a decentralized analyze the distributional impacts of economic crises setting-shows that in a food-for-education program the and macroeconomic shocks. Because the method uses center appears to be neutral to poverty at the village only precrisis household information, it allows timely level, while most villages achieve pro-poor targeting at the analysis. The study used the method to estimate the com- household level. But the study finds large variations in pensating variation for Indonesian households following program performance at the local level. Using structural the 1997 Asian currency crisis. It found that virtually socioeconomic indicators to explain the heterogeneity, it every household was severely affected, though the urban finds that village isolation and local inequality worsen poor fared the worst. For poor rural households the abil- performance in reaching the poor. ity to produce food mitigated the worst consequences of Work on country case studies has involved setting up the high inflation. The geographic location of households new databases for investigating the determinants of mattered even within urban or rural areas. longer-term poverty reduction at the provincial level. A third strand of work has looked at impacts of econ- In close collaboration with country statistical offices, the omywide change on a range of nonincome dimensions program has been assembling and analyzing large of welfare. One study investigated the effects of severe household-level databases for studies in four countries: macroeconomic crises on population mental health. Using Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia. longitudinal data from Indonesia, it found that the inci- An important channel for impact from the research has dence of psychological distress increases two- to fivefold been the World Bank's economic and sector work and for men and two- to threefold for women. Poor mental lending operations. The tools developed for measuring health persists during economic recovery even as other and understanding pro-poor growth have been used in mcasures of welfare improve. many poverty assessments and poverty-focused country Another strand of research has examined the impor- reports (including those for Bangladesh, China, Ethiopia, tant role of cultural and social factors in determining India, Madagascar, and Mozambique). The database develinequality and poverty and access to public services by oped for the country study in China will be a key input into the poor. Social exclusion based on caste and gender, the poverty assessment for that country. And early results which is culturally driven, affects not just access to from the work on Brazil contributed to a Latin America and services but also such behaviors as conspicuous the Caribbean Region report on inequality (David de Ferconsumption and domestic violence, which have ranti, Guillermo E. Perry, Francisco Ferreira, and Michael distributional implications and affect investments in Walton, Inequality in Latin America: Breaking with History? human capital. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2004). Poverty and Social Development 31

38 The work on community-driven development and Besley, Timothy, Rohini Pande, Lupin Rahman, and Vijayendra decentralized service delivery has influenced the World Rao. Forthcoming. "The Politics of Public Good Provision: Bank's thinking in key areas. For example, the work has Evidence from Indian Local Governments." Journal of the shown the importance of impact evaluations for European Economic Association. community-driven development projects and led to Bloch, Francis, and Vijayendra Rao "Terror as a Bargaining questions on how best to implement and evaluate such Instrument: A Case Study of Dowry Violence in Rural India." projects. Most important, the research has changed the American Economic Review, 92(4): discourse on community-driven development within the Bloch, Francis, Vijayendra Rao, and Sonalde Desai. Forthcoming. World Bank, sharpening the focus on measurable results "Wedding Celebrations as Conspicuous Consumption: Sigand on how community-driven development processes naling Social Status in Rural India." Journal of Human Resources. really work. The work on culture has begun to persuade Bourguignon, Fran,ois, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Phillippe G. anthropologists to think more directly about policy issues Leite "Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differand economists to study the implications of cultural ences in Household Income Distributions across Countries." processes for development. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Research The research has also had an impact within govern- Advisory Staff, Washington, D.C. ments. In Brazil the government used the work on "Conditional Cash Transfers. Schooling, and Child designing conditional cash transfers, done jointly with Labor: Micro-Simulating Brazil's Bolsa Escola Program." IVorld local researchers, in integrating four social assistance BankEconomic Review 17(2): programs into the unified Bolsa Familia. In China the Bourguignon, Fran,ois, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Marta Menen- National Bureau of Statistics has agreed to adopt the dez "Inequality of Outcomes and Inequality of Oppormethods developed for setting poverty lines, so that for tunities in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper3174. World the first time there will be complete congruence between Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. the World Bank's poverty assessments for China and the Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion "Hidden Impact? government's. Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program." Policy Results from the analyses and from related data work Research Working Paper World Bank, Development have been widely disseminated (see the abstract in this Research Group, Washington, D.C. volume for Initiatives for Improved Data on Poverty. Forthcoming. "Household Welfare Impacts of WTO and Inequality). The latest results from this work are Accession in China." lworldbank Economic Review. available on the Web at Datt, Gaurav, and Martin Ravallion "Is India's Economic programs/poverty/. Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?" Journal of Economic Per- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty spectives 16(3): Team-Martin Ravallion (mravallion@worldbank.org), Do, Quy-roan. Forthcoming. "Institutional Trap." Policy Research Shaohua Chen, Branko Milanovic, Kathleen Beegle, Working Paper. World Bank, Development Research Group, Emanuela Galasso, Peter Lanjouw, Michael Lokshin, Washington, D.C. Berk Ozler, Ghazala Mansuri, Vijayendra Rao, and Do, Quy-Toan, and Lakshmi Iyer "Land Rights and Michael Woolcock; and Development Economics, Office Economic Development: Evidence from Vietnam." Policy of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist- Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Francois Bourguignon. Research Group, Washington, D.C. Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Phillippe G. Leite "Meeting Reports the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Micro- Adekson, Adedayo, and Michael Woolcock "Negotiating economic Simulations Help?" Economia 3(2): Globalization: How Political and Social Institutions Shape the. Forthcoming. "Educational Expansion and Income Timing and Management of Economic Integration." World Distribution: A Microsimulation for Ceara." In Anthony Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Shorrocks and Rolph van der Hoeven, eds., Growth, Inequali/y, 32 Poverty and Social Development

39 andpoz'en':prospectsforpro-pooreconomicdevelopment. Oxford: Oxford tjniversity Press. Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Phillippe G. Leite. Luiz Pereira da Silva, and Paulo Pichetti "Predicting the Results of NMacroeconomic Shocks: The Brazilian Crisis of " World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Friedman, Jed. Forthcoming. "Measuring Poverty Change in Indonesia, : How Responsive Is Poverty to Growth?" In Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables, eds., Spatial Inequal- Evidence." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washitv and Development. New York: Oxford University Press. Friedman, Jed, and James Levinsohn "The Distributional Impact of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A'Rapid Response' Nlethodologv." llorldbankeconomicreview cussion Paper Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Milanovic, Branko "Can We Discern the Effect of Global- ization on Income Distribution? Evidence from Household Budget Surveys." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Milanovic, Branko, and Lyn Squire "Do Pro-Openness Policy Reforms Increase Wage Inequality? Some Empirical ington, D.C. Rahman, Lupin, and Vijayendra Rao "Revisiting Dyson and Moore: The Relative Impact of Culture, Economics, and Public Action on Women's Agency in North and South India." 16(3): World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Friedman, Jed, and Duncan Thomas "Population Mental Health during Crisis: Evidence from Indonesia." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Affairs 79(4): Ravallion, Martin "The Debate on Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality: Why Measurement Matters." International Galasso, Emanuela, and Martin Ravallion "Social Protection "Inequality Convergence." Economics I.etters 80: in a Crisis: Argentina's Plan Jefes yjefas." Policy Research Work-. Forthcoming. "Externalities in Rural Development: Eviing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. -Forthcoming. "Decentralized Targeting of an Anti-Poverty Program." Journal of Public Economics. Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion "Does Piped Water Reduce Diarrhea for Children in Rural India?" Journal of Econo- Hoeven, eds., Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Prospects for Prometncs 112(1): dence for China." In Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables, eds., Spatial Inequality and Development. New York: Oxford Univer- sity Press.. Forthcoming. "Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Looking beyond Averages." In Anthony Shorrocks and Rolph van der Poor Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press "Household Income Dynamics in Rural C'hina." In Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen "Measuring Pro-Poor Stefan Dercon, ed., Insurance against Poverty. New York: Oxford Growth." Economics l.etters 78(1): University Press. Lokshin, Nlichael, and Thomas Mroz "Gender and Poverty: Ravallion, Martin, and Gaurav Datt "Why Has Economic Growth Been More Pro-Poor in Some States of India Than Oth- A Life-Cycle Approach to the Analysis of the Differences in ers?" Journal of Development Economics 68(2): Gender Outcomes." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. Lokshin, Nlichael, and Martin Ravallion "Dynamic Poverty Youth, Identity, and Culture in Multiracial Societies Traps? Tests for Nonlinear Household Income Dynamics in 'Fwo Transition Economies." World Bank, Development Research This research examined the roles that culturally based Group, Washington, D.C. organizations, cultural expression, and the affirmation of Lokshin, Nlichael, and Ruslan Yemtsov "Evaluating the cultural heritage can play in forging positive self- Impact of Infrastructure Rehabilitation Projects on Household identity among poverty-stricken youth of African descent Welfare in Rural Georgia." Policy Research Working Paper living in multiracial societies. The research investigated: World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, * The role of culture in forming self-perception and D.C. Nlesnard, Alice, and Martin Ravallion "Wealth Distribution the individual and social roles of youths of African descent. * The extent to which these youths identify them- selves as part of a specific ethnic, racial, or national and Self-Employment in a Developing Country." CEPR Dis- Poverty and Social Development 33

40 culture and the extent to which their perceptions influ- included a major initiative with national census bureaus ence their behavior as individuals, students, and citizens. in Latin America on the demography of Afro-descendant * The impact of globalization on the traditional cultural populations and a research program on the disaggregaidentities and culturally specific skills, expressions, tion of Millennium Development Goal indicators by social practices, and enterprises of youths of African race and ethnicity in particular countries. descent. The research findings were disseminated at the World Based on a survey of youth of African descent in an Bank during Environmentally and Socially Sustainable urban neighborhood of South Africa, the study found that Development Week in April in a panel discussion youth had a greater concern with their national identity on Youth, Empowerment, and Inclusion in Conflictas citizens of South Africa than as people with an African Affected Societies. cultural heritage. Since the study was conducted in the Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, years immediately following the end of apartheid in the Social Development Family-Shelton H. Davis country, this finding may have to do with a new gener- (sdavis@worldbank.org) and Jeanette Sutherland. With ation of South African youth being more concerned Abebe Zegeye, University of South Africa. about their identity as members of the new South African nation than as members of a specific racial group. Report The research contributed to the organization in the Zegeye, Abebe, Julia Maxted, and Charl Schutte "Mamelodi, World Bank of an Afro-descendant and youth program Place of Struggles and Whistles:AWindow intoyouth Culture." in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region's World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Social Social Development Family, a program that has Development Family, Washington, D.C. 34 Poverty and Social Development

41 Health and Population Child Vulnerability in Peru: Determinants of Nutritional Status, Impact of Social Protection Programs, and Effects of Macroeconomic Crisis on Child Health This research project looked at several issues relating to child malnutrition in Peru. First, using multilevel regression analysis and data from the Peru Demographic and Health Survey of 2000, it investigated the relationship between altitude and child nutritional status. Findings show a nonlinear relationship. Opposite forces may operate at higher altitudes, where the adverse effects of hypoxia on growth could be compensated for by other, favorable health conditions. Second, the study examined the impact of macro- economic crisis on child health, primarily infant mortal- ity and malnutrition. Regression analysis using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys (1986, 1992, 1996, the Economic Crisis in Peru." Policy Research Workand 2000) showed a large increase in infant mortality (from ment in the country. Results have been presented at seminars in the World Bank and at a workshop, sponsored by the Inter-American Development Bank and held in Rio de Janeiro in November 2003, on Evaluating Nutrition Programs in Latin America. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Health Sector Unit-Michele Gragnolati (mgragnolati@ worldbank.org); and Development Research Group, Public Services-Norbert Schady and Harold Alderman. With David Stifel, Lafayette College. Reports Marini, Alessandra, and Michele Gragnolari "Effects of Altitude on Child Growth in Peru: A Multilevel Analysis." World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Health Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. 50 per 1,000 live births to 75) during the worst years of Washington, D.C. the economic crisis. It also provided evidence of a significant deterioration in anthropometric outcomes associated with the crisis. This research will break new ground in exploring why some countries achieve successful immunization pro- grams and others do not. Through four to six country case studies, the research will identify institutional factors related to successful immunization programs in devel- oping countries. Using a cross-country database, it will then test and confirm hypotheses developed from the case studies. The research will also examine factors relating to equity in the outcomes of immunization programs. Third, the study looked at the targeting of the Vaso de Leche (glass of milk) program and its impact on nutritional status. The study addressed targeting by decomposing the overall distribution into within- and betweencommunity components. It then used a series of crosssectional surveys to indicate the relationship between spending on the program and the nutritional status of young children. Findings confirm that the program is comparatively well targeted, with much of the targeting being done by local committees. But even though most assistance is going to low-income households, the study could find no direct benefit in nutrition. That calls into question the motivation for using an in-kind subsidy of perishable milk rather than a cash transfer using a similar targeting criterion. The research has contributed to a public expenditure review in Peru and will provide input to a poverty assess- Paxson, Christina, and Norbert Schady "Child Health and ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Stifel, David, and Harold Alderman "TIrhe 'Glass of Milk' Subsidy Program and Malnutrition in Peru." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Determinants of Success in Immunization Programs The research will identify factors associated with high immunization coverage for measles and DPT-3 (diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus) vaccines and determine which are most strongly related to immunization 35

42 outcomes. Such factors include national income, public Analysis of survey data from administrators, frontline spending, institutional structures, donor assistance, workers, and elected local representatives in Karnataka political economy issucs, cducation and literacy, and identified a number of key constraints to the effective governance and corruption. management of disease control in India, in misaligned By identifying the factors that contribute most to incentives and the institutional arrangements for success and equity in immunization programs, the service delivery. It concluded that India's public health research will help governments and donors improve the system is configured to be highly effective at top-down structure of vaccine programs and help make the case for reactive work, such as bringing outbreaks of disease financing ncw vaccines. under control, but not for the more routine collaborations Findings will be presented at the World Bank, at aca- required for prevention of disease. demic conferences, and to the Financing Task Force of The project will include dialogue with users of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization. preventive health services in Karnataka to facilitate Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- greater local participation in implementing and monivices-varun Gauri (vgauri@worldbank.org). toring the services-as well as dialogue with high-level policymakers in India. The project findings have been Governance of Public Health disseminated in Karnataka at workshops held by the Institute for Social and Economic Change in Bangalore 'I'he Indian state of Karnataka, currently undertaking gov- and by the Karnataka health department. The findings ernmentwide institutional reform with support from the have also been disseminated through a presentation at World Bank, has a history of supporting civil engagement the World Bank, and the project is informing preparation in governance. For the reform effort in the health of a new World Bank health sector loan to Karnataka. sector the government has created a task force drawn from The research tools are available on the Web at civil society to assess the changes needed. Working with 1. world bank. org/publicsector/bnpp/ task force members and health service users in Preventhealth.htm. Karnataka, this research project aimed to develop tools Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Serand information that would help empower citizens and vices-nmonica Das Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank rural local governments to monitor and participate in.org) and Peyvand Khaleghian. With Sekhar Bonu, the implementation of public health arrangements. To Rakesh Sarwal, and William Reinke, Johns Hopkins this end, the project worked to: University; and P. Padmanabha, K. Murthy, V. Ran- * Support local initiative in developing tools to assess ganath, V. NMuraleedharan, and Deepak Sahai, Center for the quality of delivery of preventive health services. Population and Development Research, Bangalore. * Build on the governance and public sector reform tools developed by the World Bank and the health Report service assessment tools developed by the U.S. Centers Das Gupta, Monica, Peyvand Khaleghian, and Rakesh Sarwal. for Disease Control and Prevention "Governance of Communicable Disease Control * Develop a case study of the situation in Karnataka Services: A Case Study and Lessons from India." Policy and its efforts to reform delivery of preventive health Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Development services and to engage local communities in the process. Research Group, Washington, D.C. * Develop short case studies of the experience of other Asian countries (such as Nlalaysia, which has Health Care Infrastructure and Maternal successfully reduced the burden of communicable and Child Health diseases in rcccnt years) and extract best practices in such areas as engaging civil society in implementing and This research is investigating the effects of the health care monitoring public health activities. infrastructure on contraceptive use, fertility, and infant 36 Health and PopUlalion

43 Health Care Providers and Markets in Delhi Quality of care has often been discussed as an important determinant of the demand for health care and the likely health outcomes from getting that care. But it has been a difficult concept to measure. This project has developed a method for mcasuring the quality of clinical care that is easily transferable to developing country researchers and administrators. The method was tested mortality in TIttar Pradesh, India, as well as the poten- in seven neighborhoods of Delhi spanning a wide range tially differential effects of government-run facilities of incomes. and private providers on these outcomes. The aim is to The method uses two kinds of survey instruments. provide insights into how. to improve India's health care The first is the use of "vignettes." Hypothetical cases infrastructure. are presented to a provider, with one interviewer acting The project first prepared the data set for the analy- as a patient and another recording the provider's actions sis, a complex task that involved mapping the services and answering questions a patient could not (such as on availablc in facilities in a neighborhood to the women in the results of blood tests). The vignettes are then analyzed the households in that neighborhood, at both the district using item response theory as developed in the educational and the tehsil level. 'I'he data are being analyzed using testing literature to extract a measure of provider quality. four scts of methodologics: In the second technique an interviewer sits with a * Binary logistic regressions for modeling the demand provider for a day recording every patient's complaints for contraceptivcs (sterilization, pills, condoms, and and symptoms, counting all questions asked by the intrauterine devices). provider, timing the encounter, and recording all treat- * Probit analysis for modeling infant mortality. ments. These data can be compared with measures of * Ordered probit models for birthweight (available in competence from vignettes to explore the relationship five categories). between knowledge and practice. * Poisson and Cox regressions for analyzing waiting Analysis of the results has led to three particularly notetime before men and women, especially in rural areas, worthy findings. First, the analysis sheds light on the opt for sterilization. debate in India about the relative quality of the public Preliminary findings suggest that it is essential to and private health sectors. The private sector consists of differentiate between the services of public providers and two distinct groups: untrained providers of low average those of private providers and to investigate endoge- quality and trained medical doctors of considerably nous facility placement in a more complex analytic frame- higher quality. Public providers (all trained) have a work using new estimation methods. bimodal distribution of quality-some very high (mostly Findings will bc disscminated at the NVorld Bank and working in tertiary facilities) and some quite low (in in India-at the WVorld Bank's New Delhi office, at neighborhood clinics). Public providers in poor areas are Banaras Hindu luniversity in Varanasi, and at SIPSA in only a little better than private providers. Private doctors Lucknow. The data set will be madc available in SPSS in rich areas are only a little better than doctors in (Statistical l'ackage for the Social Sciences) software. public hospitals. Responsibility: South Asia Region, Human [)evelopment Second, there are large problems in quality, with even Sector ITnit-Sadia A. C'howdhury (schowdhury3@ relatively high-quality providers missing basic and someworldbank.org). WNith Alok Bhargava, TLniversity of Hous- times life-threatening conditions. ton; and K. K. Singh, Banaras Hindu University. Third, there are systematic differences between quality measured by the vignettes and that measured by observation. Private doctors do "too much," prescribing unnecessary treatments even when the vignettes indicate they know better. Public doctors do "too little," asking too few questions to rule out dangerous conditions and spending little time with patients. This gap between knowledge and behavior can be understood given the incentives providers face. 'I'he research suggests that training is likely to have little effect in improving quality. There is already too large Health and Population 37

44 a difference between knowledge and behavior. It also sug- geographic allocation of resources in Bangladesh, and gcsts that whether patients will be better served in the equity in the financing and delivery of health services in public or private sector depends on their illness. If pri- Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Expenditure analymary treatment is necessary, the private sector is some- ses were carried out through a public expenditure review what better; if referral or letting an illness run its course of the Bangladesh health sector, a survey of health facilis called for, the public sector is better. Consumers need ity efficiency in Bangladesh, and a review of national to be better informed to make the better choice. health accounts in Sri Lanka. Other analyses examined Results have been presented at World Bank seminars the private health sector in India, Sri Lanka, and the and incorporated into a health session in the World Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. And a last set of studies Bank's Public Expenditure Analysis and Management investigated the perspectives of consumers and providers course. A conference in New Delhi is planned. through an analysis of perceptions of quality in the Indian Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- state of Andhra Pradesh, an examination of the voices of vices-jeffrey Hammer (jhammer@worldbank.org) and stakeholders in Bangladesh. and a field study of consumer Jishnu Das. With the Institute of Socio-Economic redress mechanisms at public and private hospitals in Research on Development and Democracy, Delhi. India. The research shows that in some parts of South Asia- Reports such as South India and Sri Lanka-governments do a l)as, Jishnu, and Jeffrey Hammer "Money for Nothing: much better job of distributing subsidies in the health 'I'he D)ire Straits of Medical Practice in India." World Bank, sector than other regions. The research points to Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. different policy tools for tackling inequality, including "Which Doctor: Combining Vignettes and Item establishing geographic allocation formulas, reallocat- Response to Measure Doctor Quality." World Bank, Develop- ing resources between different levels of care, educatment Research Group, Washington, D.C. ing vulnerable groups about their rights, introducing - Forthcoming. "Strained Mercy: The Quality of Medical community-based monitoring, and strengthening Care in Delhi." Economic and Political Weekly. mechanisms for redress. The research documents the dominance of the private Health Policy Research in South Asia sector in Bangladesh and India and finds a very strong private sector in Sri Lanka. It also highlights different pol- Tl his project undertook quantitative and qualitative icy instruments available to the government for working research in South Asia aimed at providing evidence in with the private sector to achieve goals. support of health sector reform and restructuring. Much Research on the role of consumers both supports the of the research was conducted by national institutions in belief that individuals and households can make a the region. Data were collected through literature reviews, difference in how health services are delivered and docfacility and patient surveys, beneficiary assessment sur- uments their limited ability to influence health services. veys, and interviews of key informants. The research It proposes improving consumer education, developing included benefit incidence analysis, public expenditure and disseminating a patient bill of rights, building comreviews, national health accounts, and analysis of data on munity watch committees to oversee service delivery, and health care utilization and facility costs and expendi- improving consumer redress mechanisms. An underlytures. The results show that empirical research can and ing need is to strengthen the links between policymakshould challenge basic assumptions about the health ers and potential health care consumers and change the sector and can provide policymakers some of the tools nature of the relationship between consumers and ncedcd to improve and monitor the sector's performance. providers. Analyses of inequality in the health sector looked at The project produced a set of research papers the distribution of public health subsidies in India, the published in a volume highlighting the innovations in the 38 Health and Population

45 papers, the contributions to advancing policy dialogue, rates of child mortality and adult morbidity because of the consultative process of commissioning and support- their persistence. What accounts for the difference? ing national research, and the approach to capacity build- Institutions are part of the answer, but little is known ing for policy research in Bangladesh, India, and Sri about the institutional determinants of effective Lanka. 'I'he research has contributed to the health delivery of public health services. policy dialogue in South Asia, and its results were incor- Through case studies in 11 developing countries, this porated into a World Bank operational report on options study is investigating what institutional factors account for the health sector in Bangladesh. for the success of effective public health systems. The Responsibility: South Asia Region, Human Develop- aim is to distill clear models that can be adapted to the ment Scctor Unit-Abdo S. Yazbeck (ayazbeck@ specific circumstances of countries seeking to improve worldbank.org), and Social Development and Environ- public health outcomes. mcnt ttnit-nilufar Ahmad. With David H. Peters, The case studies, structured around a common Johns Hopkins lfniversity School of Public Health; analytic framework, assess system effectiveness using l,iaqluat Ali, Shamin Ara Begum, Atia Hossain, Hamid measures of intermediate and final outcomes. The stud- Moral, and Priti Dave Sen, Ministry of Health and Fam- ies involve World Bank staff working with public health ily Welfare, Bangladesh; S. Chakraborty, Indian Institute specialists in each country to analyze and write up the of Mlanagement; Tim Ensor, ttniversity of York; Prashan- lessons from experience in their public health system. thi Javawardhane, Ravi P. Rannan-Eliya, and Aparnaa The project should lead to analytic contributions Somanathan, Institute of Policy Studies, Sri Lanka; Leela useful for World Bank operations in the health sector. It Karunaratne, utniversity of Sri Jayawardanepura, Sri is already informing preparation of a new health sector Lanka: Ajav Mahal, Harvard ttniversity; Prasanta Maha- loan in India as well as a World Bank report on the patra, Institute of Health Systems, Hyderabad; Bejon Millennium Development Goals and health. Mlisra, Consumer VOICE, Delhi; V. R. Muraleedharan, The project will produce a volume collecting the Indian Institute of Technology; and Sunil Nandraj, country case studies as well as an overview paper World Health Organization. The Institute of Policy summarizing their key lessons for managing public health Stuidics and Sri Lanka NMinistrv of Health contributed staff programs. tiuc. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Services-Monica Das Gupta (mdasgupta@worldbank Reports.org) and Peyvand Khaleghian. With Jaime Sepulveda, Peters. I)avid H., Abdo S. Yazbeck, Rashmi Sharma, G. N. V. Ministry of Health, Mexico; Ana Maria Malik; Somsak Raioana, Lant Pritehett, and Adam Wagstaff BetterHealth Chunharas, Ministry of Health, Thailand; Paul Chen, (Out'omnes or India's Poor Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank. International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur; Lalit Yazbcck, A\bdo S., and David H. I'eters, eds Health Poliry Nath; Hong Wang, Yale University; John Fung-Chang Rewearth in South.Asia: Building C'apacityforReform. Washington, Sung, National Taiwan University College of Public D).C.: World Bank. Health; Seung-Hum Yu, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul; Ade Lucas; Olive Shisana, Human Institutional Determinants of Effective Sciences Research Council, South Africa; and Tom Delivery of Public Health Services Nchinda. Tackling vector-borne diseases and those spread through Report poor enxvironmental hygiene is essential for meeting Das Gupta, Monica "Social Science Research and Develscveral of the Millennium Development Goals. While opment Effectiveness in Public Health." Paper presented at a many developing countries have succeeded in virtually plenary session of the Global Forum for Health Research, climinating these diseases, others continue to suffer high Geneva, December 3. Health ind Populition 39

46 Rural Health Care in China vide input into World Bank advice on the provision of social services in China's rural sector. This research project is investigating the impact of health Findings will be disseminated through working papers shocks on household consumption in rural China and and journal articles and through presentations at conthe effectiveness of different means-private, ferences, including a rural issues conference to be orgasocial, and public-in dealing with those shocks. The nized by the Chinese Economists Society and the World research will use econometric analysis based on survey Bank in Hangzhou in the summer of data for a panel of thousands of rural Chinese households Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroecostarting from the mid-1980s. Existing panel data on rural nomics and Growth-Lixin Colin Xu (Ixul@ household behavior will be combined with data worldbank.org). With Yang Yao and Mengtao Gao, Beifrom a retrospective questionnaire that focuses on health jing University, China Center for Economic Research; status and risk coping strategies in rural Chinese and Li Gan, University of Texas at Austin. Beijing Unihouseholds. versity's China Center for Economic Research will con- The results are expected to influence Chinese poli- duct the survey and provide part of the funding for it as cymakers' view of rural health care issues and will pro- well as contribute staff time. 40 Health and Population

47 Education, Labor, and Employment Assessing the Long-Term Impact Report of Early Childhood Nutrition Alderman, Harold, John Hoddinott, and Bill Kinsey. "Long-Term Consequences of Early Childhood Malnutrition." World Bank, Individuals in both developing and industrial countries Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. are subject to exogenous shocks. When such events generate variations in consumption-as when house- Child Labor and Access to Credit: holds are unable to fully insure against such shocks-they Evidence from Rural Tanzania and Vietnam lead to losses of utility. From a policy point of view the significance of such losses depends in part on whether This project examines whether access to credit can be such shocks induce path dependence. Where temporary an effective policy tool in fighting child labor and poverty. shocks have such long-lasting impacts, utility losses may Improving households' ability to insure against income be much higher. shocks through greater access to credit is often proposed This study looks at the long-term consequences of as a policy instrument for influencing child labor. Yet none nutrition shocks. It examines the impact of preschool of the empirical studies reviewed explicitly addresses the malnutrition on subsequent human capital formation in effect of risk insurance or access to credit on child labor, rural Zimbabwe using a maternal fixed effects, probably because of insufficient data. instrumental variables estimator with a panel data set Using detailed household panel data from Tanzania collected over 18 years. and Vietnam, this research investigates the effect of The study finds that exposure to the drought access to credit (defined as collateralizable assets at the in Zimbabwe reduced height-for-age Z-scores by household level and formal and informal lending sources This transitory shock resulted in a loss of stature of 2.3 at the village level) on household decisions on the centimeters and a loss of 0.4 grade of schooling by the allocation of time between child labor and schooling. It time a child reached young adulthood. When the results also analyzes whether families resort to child labor as a are extrapolated to estimate the impact of malnutrition mechanism to cope with income shocks (both household on adult earnings, they translate into a 12 percent reduc- and community shocks) and whether these shocks are tion in lifetime earnings from child malnutrition from any associated with a reduction in school attendance. In this cause. context it studies whether the presence of formal and The findings have been used in discussions of the informal financial institutions and the relative availabilneed for investment in nutrition and in safety nets. And ity of credit allow households to offset the effects of they have been presented in World Bank seminars, at the shocks. International Food Policy Research Institute, and in Results show that transitory income shocks (as seminars at universities in Canada, England, and the measured by accidental crop loss) lead to significantly United States. Plans to present the main findings in increased child labor. Moreover, they show that house- Zimbabwe were canceled because of the unrest in that holds with collateralizable assets are better able to country. offset the effects of these shocks. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- The results have been widely disseminated through vices-harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank.org). presentations, including at the World Bank, the North- With John Hoddinott, International Food Policy Research east Universities Development Consortium Conference Institute; and Bill Kinsey, University of Zimbabwe and at Williams College (October 2002), and George Wash- Free University, Amsterdam. ington University (2003). 41

48 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty accessible to interested readers in Central Asia, Eastern Team-Kathleen Beegle and Europe, and the Russian Federation. Investment Climate-Roberta Gatti. With Rajeev H. Responsibility: Europe and Central Asia Rcgion, Poverty Dehejia, Columbia University and National Bureau of Reduction and Economic NManagement Sector llnit- Economic Research. Cevdet Denizer With Daron Acemoglu, Massachusetts Institute of'l'echnology; and Reports Mehmet Eris, University of Wisconsin. Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev H. Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti Child Labor, Crop Shocks, and Credit Constraints. NBER WVorking Paper Report Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Acemoglu, Daron, Cevdet Denizer, and Nlehmet Eris. Forth- Research. coming. Human Capital, Institutions, and Growth in rawnsiioni "Child Labor, Income Shocks, and Access to Credit." Economies. NBER W'orking Paper. Cambridge. Mass.: National Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Bureau of Economic Research. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. The Impact of Deworming Treatment on Primary Human Capital and Growth School Performance in Busia, Kenya in Transition Economies This study investigated the effect of health gains for Some economists have noted that transition economies children on their education, focusing on the case of mcdhave abundant human capital and that this should help ical treatment for intestinal helminth (worm) infcctions in achieving high rates of growth. Others argue that skills among primary school children in rural western Kenya. acquired under socialism are unsuitable for a market- The study used a randomized evaluation methodology based system and that the abundance of human capital in which 75 primary schools in the sample were gradumay have been overstated. Taking these arguments, this ally phased into the medical treatment program over study considers another dimension of the issue-the three years. This methodology addresses many of the role of the institutional environment in shaping returns concerns about omitted variable bias that plague earlier to human capital-and investigates the links between research. The study also collected data on household, human capital, institutional development, and economic health, nutrition, and education outcomes among the growth. 30,000 children in the baseline sample. The study first created an analytic framework for Analysis of the effects of free deworming treatment clarifying these links. It then estimated rates of return in shows that treatment substantially improved to education in a large number of transition economies children's health and school attendance. Treatment using household survey data from World Bank poverty reduced serious worm infections in children by half. assessments and other sources. Preliminary results Pupils receiving treatment reported being sick signifisuggest positive and reasonably high rates of return to cantly less often, had lower rates of severe anemia, and education since the beginning of transition, especially in showed substantial height gains (averaging roughly 0.5 Eastern European economies. Work is under way to ana- centimeter). lyze the growth effects of such returns and the role of the School absenteeism declined by a quarter (7 perinstitutional environment. The aim is to provide a centage points) in treatment schools. Among those receivmore solid basis for the World Bank's efforts in poverty ing treatment, younger children (standards 1-4) attended reduction. school 15 more days a year on average, and older children Findings will be presented at the World Bank, in 10 more days. academic settings, and in a number of countries. Papers The program also had significant "spillover" effectswill be summarized in Russian to make findings epidemiological spillovers due to reduced transmission 42 Educftion, Labor, ind Employment

49 of worm larvae that benefited the entire community and Incidence Analysis of Public Support to the those living up to 6 kilometers away from the treatment Private Education Sector in Cote d'lvoire schools. Spillover effects allowed pupils in neighboring schools to attend school three to four more days a year C6te d'ivoire encourages private participation in eduon average. cation, providing subsidies to recognized providers and Including the spillover benefits of treatment, sponsoring "public" students to attend private secondary the cost of increasing school participation by one year and tertiary institutions. In 1998 the general allocation is only $3.50 per child. Keeping a child in school one to private education amounted to about $28 million, 6 peradditional day costs only $0.02. That makes deworming cent of the recurrent education budget. Given C6te much less expensive than any other method of d'ivoire's large subsidy program for private school increasing primary school participation known to the attendance-what could be called a voucher schemeresearchers. this study analyzed the incidence of public spending on The study involved extensive collaboration with students in private schools. It also compared the equity officials of the Kenyan Mlinistry of Health, with eight of public finance of private schools with that of public parasitologists in the Division of Vector-Borne Diseases finance of public schools. receiving training in parasitological techniques. To estimate the distribution of public spending across Findings have been presented in seminars in Busia, the income distribution, the study used data from the Kenya; at the World Bank's Nairobi office; and in meet Enquete Niveau de Vie des N1anages, a nationally ings with the Kenyan minister of education. representative household survey. The working file used Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- in the analysis contains around 9,000 observations relatvices-harold Alderman (halderman@worldbank.org) ing to family members of school age (6-3(0 years old). Of and Sylvie Moulin; and Human Development Network, the approximately 5,100 attending school in 1997/98, Education Team-Donald Bundy. NW7ith Nlichael Kremer, 965 (19 percent) received some form of education sub- Harvard University; Edward Miguel, University of sidy, with 836 (86.5 percent) of these students going to California at Berkeley; Simon Brooker, Imperial public schools and 129 (13.5 percent) to private schools. College, London; Alfred Luoba, Kenyan Ministry of The study also analyzed the demand for private Health, Division of Vector-Borne Diseases; and Inter- schooling using regression analysis. And in collaboranationaal Christelijk Steunfonds, Nairobi. tion with local researchers it undertook a schools survey to learn more about the revenues and expenditures of Reports private schools in C6te d'ivoire and about the students Brooker, Simon, Edward Nliguel, Nlichael Kremer, and they serve. others "Epidemiology of Single and Nlultiple Species The study found that for students attending public of Helminth Infections among School Children in Busia schools, the subsidy per student increases stcadily in District, Kenya." East African Mledical Journal 77(3): 157- higher expenditure quintiles, with students from fami- 61. lies in the highest quintile receiving four times as much "The Potential of Rapid Screening NMethods for as those in the lowest quintile. Trhis finding is more Intestinal Schistosomiasis in WVestern Kenya." Annals of Trop- pronounced for tertiary students. For those attending ical,fmedicine and Parasitology 95(4): private schools, the subsidy per student also increases in Hall, Andrew, Edward NMiguel. and others "Anemia in higher quintiles, but the increase is less pronounced, Schoolchildren in Eight Countries in Africa and Asia." Public with students in the highest quintile receiving just over Health Nutrition 4: twice as much as those in the lowest quintile. The over- Miguel, Edward, and Nlichael Kremer "Worms: Identifying all allocation of subsidies seems to be more equitable for Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment children attending private schools than for those attend- Externalities." Aconometrica 72(l): ing public schools. Education, Labor, and Employment 43

50 There is a clear tendency for the share of family edu- literature review of inequality in education, and anacation spending covered by subsidies to decline in higher lyzed the data. quintiles. In public schools subsidies cover almost all LTsing an education Gin index to measure inequality household education spending per child in the lowest in educational attainment, the analysis found staggering quintile, compared with 42 percent for the highest quin- gaps among groups within countries as well as across tile. In private schools the share is 81 percent for the low- countries. The analysis used two methods of calculating est quintile, and only 22 percent for the highest. 'T'hus the education,ini index, generating a quinquennial the subsidy system seems to be progressive, and more data set for the population over 15 in 140 countries from so for private schools to It produced five main findings: The research shows that subsidies to private schools * In most of the countries education inequality can be beneficial for increasing access to basic education declined over the past four decades. at a lower cost, important information for policymakers * Education inequality as measured by an education and international organizations promoting universal Gini index is negatively associated with average years of access to basic education. schooling, but the standard deviation of schooling shows Research findings have been disseminated through a clear Kuznets curve when average schooling increases. seminars and at the International Conference on Busi- * Gender gaps are clearly related to inequality in ness Economics in Athens on June 26-29, Results education, and the association between gender gaps and will also be presented to World Bank regional staff. education inequality becomcs stronger over time. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, * The education KLuznets curve does not exist when Education Sector tjnit-harry Anthony Patrinos an education Gini index is uscd-but only when stan- (hpatrinos@worldbank.org); Africa Technical Families, dard deviations are used. Human Development 2-Rachidi Radji; and Human * Per capita GDP (adjusted for purchasing power Development Network, Education Team-Ayesha Vawda. parity) has a negative association with the education With Emile Bih, R6seau Ouest et Centre Africain de Gini index and a positive association with average Recherche en Education (ROCARE), C6te d'ivoire: Chris educational attainment. Sakellariou, Nanyang 'Fechnological University, Singa- The findings have been disseminated in WVorld Bank pore; and Po Yang, State University of New York at Albany. Institute courses on poverty, trade, and western region development in China. 'I'hey also served as inputs to the Reports Qualitl of Growth (Vinod 'l'homas and others, Washing- Bih, Emile, Zakaria Berte, Raoul FranKois-Xavier Kone, and Guy ton, D.C.: World Bank, 2000), published in 10 Nlichel Okon "Analyse de l'incidence du soutien pub- languages. lic au secteur prive de l'education." 'T'he data compiled in the project were cleaned, pub- Sakellariou, Chris, and Harry Anthony Patrinos "Incidence licized, and made available in developing and transition Analysis of Public Support to the Private Education Sector in economies. The database is available on the Web at C6te d'ivoire." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, ILatin America and the Caribbean Region, Education Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and Sector UTnit, Washington, D.C. Economic Management Division-Yan Wang Yang, Po "Incidence of Public Spending for Public and (ywang2@worldbank.org); and Latin America and the Private Education." Caribbean Region, Brasilia Office-Vinod 'homas. With Xibo Fan. Inequality in Education Reports This research project expanded and updated a database Thomas, Vinod, Yan Wang, and Xibo Fan "Melasuring Eduon inequality in educational attainment, conducted a cation Inc(quality: Gini Coefficients of Education." Policy 44 Education, Labor, and Employment

51 Research Vorking Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Labor Markets and Vulnerability "Measuring Education Inequality: Gini Coefficients This research examines the extent to which lahor market of Education for 140 Countries ( )." Journal of outcomes have changed with trade liberalization in three Educational Planning andadmini.otration 17(1). East Asian countries-indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. Trade liberalization may have bcen asso- International Migration and Development ciated with job creation and growth in mean earnings in some sectors, but it may also have exposed the economy to more and larger fluctuations of the wvorld market. The research investigates whether trade liberalization transmits more shocks into more exposed sectors of the domestic economy, or whether there is more shock during periods of greater openness and thus greater vulnerability for cer- tain groups of workers. Lacking panel data, the study forms a synthetic panel of cohorts, defined by year of birth, using successive cross- sectional surveys to follow a series of cohorts of randomly selected individuals over time. For Indonesia and 'l'hailand the study uses labor force surveys; for Korea, labor force surveys and establishment surveys. The study identifies trends in key labor market indicators by subgroup of work- ers and in different sectors to see how these indicators evolve over time in industries with varying exposure to the world market. It also examines the evolution of the mean and variance of earnings during "more closed" and "more This research program on the development impact of international migration aims to identify policies, regulations, and institutional reforms that will lead to better outcomes for migrants, for developing countries, and for industrial countries. NMigration is more likely to be beneficial for developing countries in the long run if industrial countries perceive it to be beneficial as well and are therefore willing to cooperate in designing and implementing sustainable reforms on their side. That is, the reforms most likely to succeed will probably be those that benefit both sets of countries. The research examines the effect of migration on industrial countries as well as on migrants because the effect on both sets of countries will also depend on the success of migrants. Studies focus on six topics identified as both important from a development perspective and requiring additional research: * Remittances. liberalized" periods in the economy. 'l'he study then esti- * The brain drain. mates the vulnerability of workers to poverty, defined as * The temporary movement of persons (mode 4) the likelihood of their receiving earnings below a survival under the General Agreement on Trade in Services. threshold (defined as 60 percent of the national median * The link between trade, foreign direct investment, wage) conditional on their situation in the previous period. and migration. The analysis finds no significant change in year-to-year * Labor market and social protection issues. fluctuations in workers' earnings and employment after * Governance. trade was further liberalized in the 1990s. Nor did work- Analytic approaches include household surveys and ers' vulnerability differ significantly across manufacturliterature surveys. Work on the brain drain draws on cen- ing industries with different degrees of exposure to trade. sus data. And theoretical papers examine the link between While the analysis finds no obvious link between trade trade and migration in the presence of social capital. and vulnerability, it confirms that somc workers-women Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Mau- and those with less schooling-are more vulnerable than rice Schiff(mschiff@worldbank.org); Poverty Reduction others. This result reflects the dominant evidence in and Economic Management Network, Poverty Reduc- the literature that gender and skill have a strong tion Group-Richard Adams; Development Econom- discriminatory power in determining one's earnings. ics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief The research has been presented at workshops in Economist-Coralie Gevers; and Development Prospects Seoul (November 2002); Ithaca, New lork (Nlarch 2003); Group-Dilip Ratha. and Istanbul (July 2003). Edu(ation, Labor, and Employment 45

52 Responsibility: Development Economics, Office of the Senior also the main destination for permanent migrants Vice President and Chief Economist-Fran,ois Bour- (accounting for 49 percent), followed by Italy (35 percent). guignon; and East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Almost half the family members who have left households Reduction and Economic Management Unit- since 1990 are now living abroad. Chorching Goh. With Vivi Alatas, University of Indone- Remittances play an important part in the income sia; and Dae-II Kim, Seoul University. strategy of Albanian households, accounting for 13 percent of total household income. According to the Reports 2002 LSNIS survey, 28 percent of households received Alatas, Vivi "Labor Market Vulnerabiliry in Indonesia: A Syn- some form of private transfer from individuals or instithetic Cohort Panel Simulation Exercise." World Bank, East Asia tutions in the 12 months before the survey. and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Man- This study has provided the analytic basis for agement Unit, Washington, D.C. additional research on the role of migration networks in Bourguignon, Fran,ois, and Chorching Goh "Trade and individuals' decision to migrate and on the role of migra- Labor Market Vulnerability in Indonesia, Korea, and T'hai- tion in the income strategies of the rural poor. It also has land." In Kathie Krumm and Homi Kharas, eds., East Asia provided the basis for a chapter in the World Bank's Integrates:A TradePolit AgendaforShared Growth. Washington, 2002 poverty assessment of Albania, the first such report D.C.: World Bank. to dedicate a full chapter to migration and its links to poverty and rural development. Findings have been Migration, Poverty, and Income Strategies discussed with local stakeholders and policymakers and of Rural Households in Albania will be further disseminated through workshops. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty Migration may be the most important social, political, and Team-Kathleen Beegle (kbeegle@worldbank.org) and economic phenomenon in postcommunist Albania. Calogero Carletto. With Benjamin Davis and Alberto According to some estimates, around a fifth of the pop- Zezza, Food and Agriculture Organization; and Marco ulation has left the country since 1990, and there have Stampini, University of Pisa. been large-scale population movements from rural to urban areas. Report Using data from a recent population census and the Carletto, Calogero, Benjamin Davis, Nlarco Stampini, and Alberto 2002 Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) Zezza. "Internal NMobility and International Migration in Albasurvey in Albania, this research has documented the nia." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, demographic transition under way in the country, includ- D.C. ing the incidence and patterns of migration. It has also carried out a micro-level analysis of households' decision Poetry, Literacy, and Empowerment to migrate, estimating two multinomial logit models to for Rural Yemeni Women investigate what determines the decision to migrate, temporarily or permanently, to different destinations. The illiteracy rate for women in the Republic of Yemen The study finds that almost half the households in is very high-77 percent in 1996, according to UNICEE Albania were exposed to some form of migration in the And Ministry of Education personnel find that rural 1990s. For rural Albanians migration is one of the women do not view literacy efforts aimed at them as relpreferred coping strategies to escape poverty. Tirana is evant to their lives. Nloreover, there has been a decline the main destination for internal migration, a process in poetry composition by rural Yemeni women and with that appears to have accelerated in the second half of the it a loss of social voice. In the Republic of Yemen poetry 1990s. Greece is by far the most important destination is an important tool for managing conflict and expressfor temporary migrants, chosen by 8 of 10. Greece is ing personal wishes and opinions. But for rural women 4 6 Education, Labor, and Employment

53 Report Adra, Najwa. Forthcoming. "Literacy through Poetry: A Pilot Project for Women in the Republic of Yemen." Wltomen's Studies Quarterly. Semiparametric Methods for Evaluation of Social Policies and Programs Econometric work to evaluate the impact of social pro- grams and policies typically assumes that the impact is the same across the distribution of the indicator under review (such as income). This assumption stems from the fact that in a traditional regression setting, parametric methods yield one parameter estimate for the impact whether the program or policy is captured through a continuous or categorical variable. Even when interac- tion effects are used, the impact is generally assumed to be the same for all those with the given interaction. But in reality some households may benefit (or suffer) more than others from a program or policy. One way to avoid imposing such assumptions is to rely on semiparametric methods. This research explored the application of semiparametric methods to estimate the impact of the minimum wage on the distribution of income. The main findings of this work are in line with the literature: increases in the minimum wage tend to reduce wage inequality when employment effects are not taken into account, but the impact may be reversed when employment effects are included and a sufficiently large weight is placed at the bottom of the income dis- tribution (where those losing their jobs are located). Since a key objective was to apply new analytic methods, the study also used decompositions of the Gini index into gap-narrowing and reranking effects to analyze the wage and employment effects of changes in the minimum wage and developed a risk-adjusted welfare framework to analyze the impact of such policies, distinguishing between ex ante and ex post evaluation methods. Other work analyzed different aspects of wage inequality, including gender, and the effect of changes in wages on poverty. Some of the methods developed are being used in subsequent studies. The work on risk-adjusted welfare, for example, is being used to study cash crops in Africa. modernity has led to a decline in occasions for poetry composition. This study explored potential links between traditional arts and effective learning strategies by using learners' oral poetic traditions to teach literacy. It addressed two broad questions: Can a focus on local oral traditions encourage women to attend literacy classes? And does women's attainment of literacy skills encourage the perpetuation of local poetic traditions and culturally acceptable modes of self-expression? In a community-driven pilot literacy project using the language experience approach to community literacy as well as community counseling learning, women were taught reading and writing skills through the transcription of poems that they and their neighbors composed. These poems were printed and disseminated within and outside the community. A formal evaluation of the pilot in Nlay 2003 found that results surpassed targets and expectations. Of the 95 learners completing the first year, 77 percent had met or surpassed the goals of reading and writing a short paragraph and reading short verses from the Quran and other works in print. Moreover, the pilot appears to have overcome disdain for local lore among younger learners and renewed interest in traditional folklore among learners of all ages. Supervisors and teachers agreed that the method helped learners develop new skills of self-expression and boosted self-confidence. And community attitudes toward female education have changed so that it is no longer considered shameful for a young girl or an unmarried woman to attend classes in the village. The pilot sparked much interest among local stakeholders and potential international donors. The Yemeni Social Fund for Development, which explores alternative methods of teaching literacy to women, took over funding and administration of the pilot in January 2003 and added four new classes. An informational meeting in June 2003 was attended by representatives of a number of organizations. Responsibility: NMiddle East and North Africa Region, Social and Economic Development Group-Carmen Niethammer (cniethammer@vworldbank.org). With Najwa Adra. Education, Labor, and Employment 47

54 In addition, work on Brazil and Colombia informed a Colombia." Archivos de Economia 247. Colombian Department World Bank Latin America and the Caribbean Region of National Planning, Bogota. report on inequality (David de Ferranti, Guillermo E. Angel-Urdinola, Diego, and Quentin Wodon "The Perry, Francisco Ferreira, and Michael Walton, Inequal- Gender Wage Gap and Poverty in Colombia." Archivos de ity in Latin America: Breaking with History? Washington, Economfa 239. Colombian Department of National Planning, D.C.: World Bank, 2004). The research also provided Bogota. input into poverty assessments of Colombia and Paraguay "Relative Labor Supply and the Gender Wage Gap: The methodology for risk-adjusted welfare analysis Evidence for Colombia and the United States." Archivos de was presented in training sessions for World Bank staff Economia 238. Colombian Department of National Planning, and at a conference on risk and vulnerability organized Bogota. by the World Bank and the International Food Policy "Impact Evaluation under Risk Aversion: Ex Ante Research Institute. Research findings were also pre- or Ex Post?" World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean sented at a Georgetown University seminar and at a Region, Poverty Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Midwestern Economic Association conference in St.. Forthcoming. "The Impact on Inequality of Raising the Louis. Minimum Wage: Gap-Narrowing and Reranking Effects." Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Labour Poverty Sector Unit-Quentin Wodon (qwodon@ -. "Do Changes in the Minimum Wage Affect Youth and worldbank.org) and Diego Angel-Urdinola. With Paul Adults Differently? Evidence for Paraguay." World Bank, Latin Makdissi, Sherbrooke University, Canada. America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Sector Unit, Reports Angel-Urdinola, Diego "A Nlinimum Wage Increase May Washington, D.C. Have an Adverse Impact on Wage Inequality: The Case of 9(1): Makdissi, Paul, and Quentin Wodon "Risk-Adjusted Mea- sures of Wage Inequality and Safety Nets." Economics Bulletin 48 Education, Labor, and Employment

55 Environment Capital Markets and Environmental Performance: Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure Evidence from the Republic of Korea and Environment-Susmita Dasgupta worldbank.org), Ben6it Laplante, and Craig Meisner. With Designing effective incentives for pollution control Jong Ho Hong, Hanyang University, Seoul; and Nlandu requires understanding what determines the environ- Mamingi, University of West Indies, Barbados. mental performance of industrial enterprises. The World Bank's Development Research Group recently pioneered Reports studies of the role and impact of local communities and Dasgupta, Susmita, Jong Ho Hong, Benoit Laplante, and Nlandu capital markets in exerting pressure on enterprises to Mamingi. Forthcoming. "Disclosure of Environmental Violaimprove their environmental performance. Results show tions and the Stock Market in the Republic of Korea." Policy that capital markets do react to news about the Research Working Paper. World Bank, Development Research environmental performance of an enterprise. Group, Washington, D.C. While this finding is of interest, of much greater inter- Hong, Jong Ho, Benoit Laplante, and Craig Meisner "Pubest is whether the reactions of capital markets (that is, lic Disclosure of Environmental Violations in the Republic of drops in market value) induce enterprises to improve their Korea." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, environmental performance. No study has looked at this Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. question in developing countries. This research is aimed at filling that gap, using data from the Republic of Korea. Climate Change and Rural Poverty Since 1989, in what may be the longest-running environmental public disclosure program, Korean envi- The world takes notice of extreme climate events such ronmental authorities have published a monthly list of as floods, hurricanes, and prolonged droughts, because enterprises violating the country's environmental rules and they can have dramatic effects on those in their path. regulations. In these monthly lists recorded When the victims also happen to be poor, the effects can more than 7,000 violation events, involving more than be extreme-hunger, disease, and even death. But 3,400 different companies. The study undertook a because of inadequate information, monitoring the impact comprehensive descriptive analysis of this data set. Results of natural disasters on poor rural communities has been suggest that the news media have given important (though difficult in many parts of the world. perhaps declining) coverage to the violation lists, focus- This study will investigate the links between climate ing on publicly traded companies, failures to operate and rural poverty. First, it will explore to what extent pollution abatement equipment, and prosecutions. climate can explain the observed distribution of agricul- The research also looked at the reaction of investors tural productivity and rural income. Using economic to the monthly violation lists. Using event study method- agricultural data and climate satellite data, the study will ology, it found that enterprises appearing on these lists quantify the effect of climate on agriculture in several experienced a significant decline in their market valua- countries of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, tion. Of 96 events, 61 (63.5 percent) had an impact on Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, and Republica Bolivariana securities returns. And 46 of 61 firms (75.4 percent) devenezuela). Itwill then use this information to link cliresponded unambiguously to environmental news. These mate and rural income. The study will also examine techfindings indicate the potential role of capital markets in niques used by farmers to adapt to local climate conditions. inducing enterprises to invest in their environmental Second, the study will examine how climate in Latin performance. America affects natural resource management and rural 49

56 projects supported by the World Bank. It will identify conclusion is that there is very little empirical evidence which projects are expected to be especially sensitive to in support of the hypothesis. climate conditions and what policies or modifications The analysis drew on data from a 1995 European might reduce this sensitivity. Bank for Reconstruction and Development survey Third, the study will forecast effects from global of investment projects undertaken by a sample of warming. Using climate forecasts from climate models, multinational corporations from around the world the study will calculate a detailed forecast of what will in transition economies of Eastern Europe and the happen to agriculture in the region. Changes in rural former Soviet Union in the first half of the 1990s; income will also be forecast. This analysis will carefully firm-level data from the Amadeus database on investment integrate adaptation into these empirically based esti- flows within Western Europe and between European mates. And it will identify policies to cope with both short- Union member countries and transition economies in the and long-term changes in climate. late 1990s; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data Responsibility: Agriculture and Rural Development Depart- on average emissions per unit of output; U.S. Census ment-ariel Dinar (adinar@worldbank.org). With Anto- Bureau data on average abatement costs per unit of nio Avila, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation output; and information from various sources on (Embrapa); Alan Basist, Commodity Hedgers; Robert corruption and lack of the rule of law across host Evenson, Robert Mendelsohn, and Christopher Timmins, countries. Yale University; Cooperative Program for the Agricultural- The study has added to our knowledge of the poten- Technological Development of the Southern Cone tial benefits and drawbacks of foreign direct investment (Procisur), Uruguay; and Cooperative Program for in developing countries and to our understanding of the Agricultural-Technological Innovation of the Andean channels through which corruption may contribute to Group (Prociandino), Rep6blica Bolivariana de poverty as broadly defined. Venezuela. Findings have been presented at the World Bank International Trade Seminar Series (June 2001), Corruption, Pollution, and Foreign Empirical Investigations in International Trade Confer- Direct Investment ence at Purdue University (November 2001), International Atlantic Economic Society Conference in Foreign investors are often suspected of relocating their Paris (March 2002), Yale University School of Managepollution-intensive production to developing and tran- ment Seminar Series (April 2002), and meetings of the sition economies, which may have good environmental American Economic Association in San Diego (January protection laws but lack good enforcement. Lax enforce- 2004). ment tends to be correlated with bureaucratic corruption. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- So pollution-intensive multinational firms may be par- Beata Smarzynska (bsmarzynska@worldbank.org). ticularly inclined to locate production facilities in corrupt host countries if it is cheaper to "purchase" the ability Reports to pollute through bribery than to acquire the technol- Smarzynska, Beata, and Miariana Spatareanu "Impact of ogy to reduce emissions. Labor Market and Environmental Regulations on Foreign This study tested the hypothesis that host country cor- Direct Investment." World Bank, Development Research ruption attracts disproportionately more foreign invest- Group, Washington, D.C. ment that is relatively pollution intensive. Empirical Smarzynska, Beata, and Shang-Jin Wei "Pollution Havens analysis examined the relationship between the pollu- and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular Myth?" tion intensity of inward foreign direct investment and the Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developperformance of the host country on environmental stan- ment Research Group. Washington, D.C. dards and corruption (or lack of the rule of law). The broad 50 Environment

57 Economic Instruments for Habitat Conservation effectiveness formula. For each policy scenario TAMARIN reports, in tabular and mapped form, eco- The Central Atlantic Forest Corridor of Brazil exempli- nomic outcomes (such as expenditure on incentives and fies the issues that arise when economic pressures the opportunity cost of land selected for conservation) and threaten important biodiversity resources. The Atlantic environmental outcomes (including land cover, habitat Forest is ranked by many conservation biologists among connectivity, edge effects, and representation of differthe habitats with highest priority for conservation, and ent subecosystems). The central concern is whether the section in the south of the state of Bahia among its uncoordinated individual responses to incentives can most important parts. But this section is now reduced to yield connected habitats large enough to sustain viable relatively small fragments. MIoreover, less than a fifth is populations of key fauna. protected, and the rest is threatened by conversion, often The research has found that land in South Bahia has to uses with low economic value. Without interventions a relatively low market value, with forested land worth to maintain, expand, and link habitats, the long-term about 70 percent less than otherwise equivalent land. This viability of this ecosystem is in doubt. suggests that tradeoffs between conservation and agri- Prevailing approaches to constructing biodiversity culture may be modest and that incentive-based policies corridors rely on land use zoning, which tends to be inef- have the potential to achieve conservation goals at relafective when it imposes large uncompensated costs on tively low cost. These findings have implications for landholders. An alternative is to offer incentives for envi- several types of economic instruments now under ronmentally sustainable land uses, on the model of the discussion in Brazil and elsewhere, including payments U.S. Conservation Reserve Program or the Costa Rican for carbon sequestration services from regeneration. Environmental Services Payment Program. But whether Project findings, data, and tools have been presented such an approach is affordable or is effective for bio- to the management of the Ecological Corridors Project diversity corridors has not been known. (part of the Pilot Program to Conserve the Brazilian Rain This project was designed to find cost-effective, Forest, a joint effort of the Brazilian government, civil economically attractive, and socially acceptable policies society, and the international community), which is for conservation of the forest section in South Bahia and designing biodiversity corridor policy for the study area. of similar biodiversity hotspots. The project constructed Conservation International has adapted and refined the and applied a bioeconomic model representing the eco- TAMARIN framework for application in other biodinomic and environmental impact of specific land use con- versity hotspots, including Madagascar. And TAMARIN figurations and carried out a simulation of incentive-based has shown potential for use as a tool to facilitate negotiland use policies. It defined an environmental objective ation between stakeholder groups. Information on function, gathered and integrated geographic data on TAMARIN, which is freely distributed, is available on land characteristics, defined biologically distinct sub- the Web at zones of the study area, estimated a hedonic model of land Findings have been disseminated through two value and imputed it across the landscapc, and con- workshops in Salvador, Bahia, one in June 2001 for structed a software model, TAMARIN, that draws on government officials and environmental organizations these components. TANIARIN is a spatially explicit and the other in December 2003 for the management (geographic information system-based) model that rep- committee of the Bahia Ecological Corridor. The work resents land cover at a 30-meter resolution and incorpo- also has been cited in a World Bank Institute course on rates planning units of 1 square kilometer. territorial development in Brazil. The simulations cnvision an auction-based program Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucsimilar to the lt.s. Conservation Reserve Program, where ture and Environment-Kenneth M. Chomitz landholders voluntarily bid to put land under conserva- (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Institute for Compution easements and the bids are ranked by a simple cost- tational Earth System Science, tjniversity of California Environment 51

58 at Santa Barbara: XV. Wayt Thomas, New York Botanical fragile lands, water resources, global emissions, and envi- Gardens; Andre Mauricio de Carvalho, Comissao Exec- ronmental institutions. utiva do Plano da Lavoura Cacaueira (CEPLAC), Brazil; Results of the research, presented to World Bank Industrial Economics, UJnited States; and Timothy staff, have contributed to priority setting for regions by Thomas. The Rain Forest Trust Administration tjnit the World Bank's Environment Department and to the contributed funding for the research, Instituto Brasileiro improvement of environmental management by the de Geografia a Estatistica contributed data, and Con- World Bank. servation International (Brazil and the LUnited States), the The project has created a database on environmen- Center for Advanced Biodiversity Science, the Federal tal indicators and World Bank lending and analytic and University of Nlinas Gerais, and Instituto de Estudios advisory activities in a composite format (Excel) that S6cioambientais do Sul da Bahia contributed data and allows consideration of alternative scenarios for such staff time. activities. The complete set of interactive indicators and the supporting database are available on the Web at Reports Chomitz. Kenneth NI., K. Alger, 'T'imothy S. Thomas. H. Orlando, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucand P. Vila Nova. "Opportunity Costs of Conservation in a ture and Environment-David Wheeler (dwheelerl@ Biodiversitv Hotspot: 'I'he Case of Southern Bahia." worldbank.org), Susmita Dasgupta, Uwe Deichmann, Hardner, Jared "Land I Ise'l'rends and Conservation Oppor- and Maureen Cropper. With Kiran Pandey, Piet Buys, and tunitics in the Atlantic Forest of Southern Bahia, Brazil." World Craig Meisner. Bank, Development Research (iroup, WVashington, D.C. Keare, Douglas. and Richard L. Barrows "Survey of Economic Report Instruments for Land NManagement in Developing Countries." Buys, Piet, Susmita Dasgupta, Craig Nleisner, Kiran Pandy, David Stoms, David NI., Kenneth NI. Chomitz, and Frank XV. Davis. Wheeler, Katharine Bolt, Kirk Hamilton, and Limin Wang "'FANIARIN: A Landscape Framework for Evaluating "Measuring tjp: New Directions for Environmental Economic Incentives for Rainforest Restoration." L.andscapeand Programs at the World Bank." Policy Research Working Paper Urban Planning 68(1): World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Stoms, David NI., Frank W.1 Davis, Richard L. C(hurch, and Ross D.C. A. Gerard "Economic Instruments for Conservation: Final Report to the W'orld Bank." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. 'I'homas, WV. Wavt, and Andrc NIairicio de Carvalho. "Vegetation of Coastal Bahia." Environmental Indicators This project responds to the need for better environmental measures to guide the World Bank in setting priorities for its environmental lending and analytic and advisory activities. The study has constructed comparable indicators for the World Bank's priorities and its actual environmental lending and analytic and advisory activitics in all member countries. IUsing these indicators, it has completed comparisons of priorities and actual activities relating to six themes: pollution, biodiversity, Fiscal Incentives for Conservation in Brazil Recently there has been growing interest in promoting habitat conservation through the use of direct or indirect incentives for land protection. While theoretical analysis suggests that such programs could provide a flexible, cost-effective approach to conservation, few examples exist in the developing world. Consequently, much skep- ticism remains about their practical feasibility and effec- tiveness. A key question is how to reduce the transaction costs associated with providing incentives to individual landholders. This research project examines one of the largest and longest-running conservation incentive programs in the developing world: the ICMS Ecol6gico (Ecological Value Added Tax) programs of Brazil. Over the past decade 52 Environment

59 several Brazilian states have modified their revenue shar- The research has been presented at the Conference ing arrangements so as to provide incentives for munici- on Developing Markets for Forest Environmental Serpios (counties) to create and maintain protected areas. The vices in Vancouver in October 2000, at the World Parks research addresses fundamental questions about the Conference in Durban in 2003, at the M9exican Forest political economy of thesc programs: Institute, and informally in Brazil. * A\ Iir is the distributional impact of these programs? Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- Do they favor poor areas? NX h r are the preconditions for ture and Environment-Kenneth NI. Chomitz their adoption? (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Peter Mlay, Fernando * I)o these programs stimulate the creation of public Veiga Neto, and Valdir Denardin, Federal Rural UJniand private reserves? If so, how and why do they work? versity of Rio de Janeiro; and Wilson Loureiro, Parand How are the incentives transmitted to landholders? Environmental Institute. 'T'he project is examining the ICMIS Ecol6gico experience in two states, Parand and Minas Gerais, using Report quantitative and qualitative methods. Qualitative analy- Mlay, Peter, Fernando Veiga Neto, Valdir Denardin, and \Vilson ses, now complete, examined institutional issues, look- Loureiro "Using Fiscal Instruments to Encourage ing inside the black boxes of municipal and state Conservation: Nlunicipal Responses to the 'Ecological' Valueadministrations to understand how and why the system Added 'Fax in Parand and NMinas Gerais, Brazil." In Stefano functions as it does. These analyses were based on struc- f'agiola, Joshua Bishop, and Natasha Landell-Mills, eds., Selltured interviews at the municipal and state lcvels. ing Forest En zironmenta/lerctices:,ailarket-based,llechanisms for Quantitative analyses wvill use municipal-level data on Conservation. London: Earthscan. fiscal distributions, protected areas, poverty rates, and other socioeconomic and geophysical characteristics. Foreign Direct Investment and Pollution Havens Distributional studies will correlate net gains or losses from ICNIS Ecol6gico with poverty rates, proxies for This study aims to contribute to the debate on the demand for environmental amenities, and socio- pollution haven hypothesis-the contention that strinpolitical characteristics of the mutnicipio. Econometric gent environmental regulation in industrial countries analysis wvill test whether the ICNIS Ecol6gico programs drives firms from those countries to establish plants in had an incentive effect, using program-induced variations developing countries with more lax regulation. While in payments per hectare as the basis of a natural there has been little econometric work to test this hypothexperiment. esis, empirical studies have suggested that there is no Field studies show that municipal authorities do in fact evidence to support it. use the municipal-level incentive to motivate conserva- But analytic weaknesses in the earlier work suggest tion actions by individual landholders. 'lthis suggests a need for more testing. Many of these studies probably that conservation incentive programs may be able to suffer from omitted variable bias, neglecting the influgreatly reduce operational costs by working at the munic- ence of agglomeration and relative abundance of skilled ipal rather than landholder level. But further work is labor in explaining the incidence of foreign direct investneedcd to assess the effectiveness of these actions. ment. Nlost have been only loosely motivated by the Findings wvill be of particular interest to Brazil, where theoretical literature on location choice or pollution emismore states are considering adopting these programs sions and abatement. And many have been limited by the and where there is a national debate about fiscal reform level of aggregation and the inability to measure that could affect the programs' continuation. More environmental stringency across regions and pollution broadly, an assessment of how these programs work intensity across industries. could inform the design of new, more ambitious programs This study, designed to overcome such analytic involving incentive payments directly to landholders. weaknesses, econometrically tests the pollution haven Environment 53

60 hypothesis by examining foreign direct investment The focus is mainly on the hydrological values of inflows across provinces in China using a location choice maintaining habitats important to biodiversity. The study model. Chinese data present an ideal test for the hypoth- will investigate the science: To what extent, and under esis: China has been the largest developing country what biogeophysical conditions, does maintaining recipient of foreign direct investment since 1990, the dis- biodiversitv-related habitats reduce erosion, sedimentribution of the investment across provinces has been tation, and flooding risk and increase dry-season flows? highly uneven, and environmental regulations are imple- The project has several complementary parts. In an mented at the provincial level. initial global overview the project will integrate global 'The econometric model is derived from a well- data sets on soils, climate, topography, biodiversity, forspecified theoretical framework, incorporating a firm pro- est cover, and population (mostly at a 1- to 5-kilometer duction and abatement decision model, agglomeration, and resolution) to identify areas where the links between the relative abundance of skilled labor. The model is biodiversity, hydrology, and poverty are likely to be estimated with conditional logit, using data on joint ven- important. It will also sponsor literature syntheses by tures, effective environmental levies on water pollution as experts in hydrology, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods. measures of environmental stringency, and estimates of National and mesoscale studies will take a much finer look Chinese emissions and abatement costs at the industry at the issues, using newly available data on the geo- (three-digit ISIC) level as measures of pollution intensity. graphic distribution of poverty and on land cover and Although the analysis is incomplete, preliminary biodiversity correlates. Possible areas for analysis include results show that relatively high pollution levies deter Central America, Ecuador, and the Philippines. A final investment from Hong Kong (China), Macao (China), and global synthesis will incorporate the findings of the case Taiwan (China). But they attract investment from OECD and field studies as well as improved geographic data on and other non-chinese countries-the reverse of the a world scale. pollution haven hypothesis. Based on its findings, the study will attempt to iden- The preliminary results have been presented at work- tify workable strategies to address any externality probshops in the UJnited States. lems related to land cover and to promote biodiversity Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- with improved livelihoods. The results should help the ture and Environment-Hua Wang (hwangl@ World Bank respond to increasing requests from clients worldbank.org). for advice and assistance in establishing payment systems for environmental services. The Functional Value of Biodiversity Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucand Its Correlates ture and Environment-Kenneth M. Chomitz (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Thomas Tomich, Efforts to incorporate biodiversity into development Meine van Noordwijk, and David Thomas, Internaprojects and policies have been frustrated by a lack of tional Center for Research in Agroforestry; Kate Sebascomprehensive, science-based assessments of the func- tian and Stanley Wood, International Food Policy tional contribution of biodiversity conservation to rural Research Institute; Ellen Douglas and Charles Voroslivclihoods and economic development. To help remedy marty, University of New Hampshire; and Jeffrey Richey, this situation, this project aims to provide systematic University of Washington. assessments, for significant areas of the humid tropics, of the functional values of forest-derived biodiversity and Global Overlay-Brazil its correlates in promoting local livelihoods and resilience to economic and environmental shocks. It will also assess This study analyzed the economic and environmental the nature, magnitude, and geographic scope of these aspects of land use and forest conservation in two parts functional values and their relationship to poverty. of Brazil, the Amazon Basin and the state of Minas 54 Environment

61 (Gerais.'The goal was to examine potential land use poli- The third component, focusing on the Amazon, anacics and to assess the complementarities or tradeoffs lyzed spatial econometric patterns of deforestation using they prescnt for three goals-protecting biodiversity, fine-scale data on agricultural land use. It also constructed mitigating climate change, and providing local economic a map of the farm gate price of cattle (a hypothesized benefits. determinant of incentives for deforestation) based on a 'I'hc study had three components, all centered on survey of Amazonian slaughterhouses. Under traditional how policies will change spatial patterns of incentives for land uses of pasture and some annual crops, agricultural forest prescrvation, management, and conversion and, in prospects for the Amazon Basin decline with increasing turn, how alternative spatial patterns of exploitation and rainfall. This suggests that restricting deforestation in conversion affect economic output, carbon sequestra- moister areas of the Western Amazon would entail minor tion or emissions, and habitats of particular importance opportunity costs while providing significant benefits in for biodiversity. To the extent possible, a geographic biodiversity and carbon storage. information system (GIS) framework was used to inte- The project has contributed to the ongoing debate in grate economic, carbon, and biodiversity information. Brazil on the reformulation of the Forest Code and to 'The first component assessed the potential effects of World Bank economic and sector work and dialogue changes in the implementation of the legal forest reserve with Brazil relating to development and environment in re(luiremcnt. This long-standing (and imperfectly the Amazon. It has also contributed to project dialogue cntorccd) requirement obliges Brazilian landholders to and design for the Prototype Carbon Fund. And it has maintain a fixed proportion of each property under nat- provided a basis for discussions with the federal govural vegetation. The project constructed a spatially ernment, state governments, and environmental orgaexplicit simtulation model for Minas Gerais that assessed nizations in Brazil on the implementation of the forest the impact on forests and agriculture of permitting trade reserve requirement. Project results were featured in in these obligations under different scenarios. The results the World Bank's World Development Report 2003: suggest that allowing trade could drastically reduce land- Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World (New York: holders' cost of complying with the regulation, making Oxford University Press, 2002). it easier to enforce and improving environmental The research has been presented at a workshop on outcomcs. Allowing wider ambits of trade (biomes or NMarket-Based Instruments for Environmental Protection river basins rather than microwatersheds) would reduce at Harvard University's John F Kennedy School of Govcosts, provide greater protection to areas of higher impor- ernment (July 1999); a workshop on Land Use for Contance for biodiversity, and probably increase carbon servation and Development: Getting the Incentives storage. Right in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil, for state-level officials 'I'he second component looked at historical patterns engaged in land use planning and regulation in the Amaof plantation and woodland exploitation related to Minas zon (October 1999); a meeting of the International Gerais's charcoal-fueled pig iron industry, interpreting Regional Science Association in Montreal (December them through simple models of plantation and pig iron 1999); a series of environmental debates in the World operation. The goal was to elucidate the effect of plan- Bank's Brasilia office (May 2000); a meeting of the Intertation subsidies and a ban on woodland exploitation for national Association of Agricultural Economists in Berlin charcoal on greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity (July 2000); a congress on Brazilian rural economics and loss related to pig iron production. Though data are sociology in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais (July 2003); a wcak, it appcars that this policy combination succeeded BIOECON workshop in Venice for academics and in shifting Minas Gerais's pig iron industry toward zero researchers (August 2003); a World Bank Institute disnet carbon emissions. Payments for carbon sequestration tance learning seminar on territorial development at sevservices could help smaller pig iron producers maintain eral locations in Northeast Brazil (October 2003); and the prodtuction on an environmentally sound basis. International Forum on Territorial Development in Environment 5 5

62 Fortaleza, Brazil, for government officials, nongovernmental organizations, and academics (November Technical Paper 515. Washington, D.C. (Also published in Portuguese as Amaz6nia Sustentdvel: limitantes e oportaunidadespara 2003). o desenvolvimento rural, Serie Parcerias, World Bank, Brasilia Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- Office, 2000.) ture and Environment-Kenneth M. Chomitz (kchomitz@worldbank.org). With Timothy S. Thomas; Landfill Gas Utilization in Sub-Saharan Africa Eugenio Arima, Amazon Institute of People and Environment (IMAZON), Brazil; Peter May, Federal Rural In African cities, where populations are growing rapidly, University of Rio de Janeiro; Aline Tristao Bernardes; municipal waste will increase proportionately, providing Ant6nio Salazar Brandao; and Biodiversitas, Brazil. The a potentially important energy source. Using urban waste research was funded in part by the Denmark Trust Fund for energy production mitigates the environmental impact through the Global Overlay Program. Instituto Brasileiro of urban waste disposal while providing relatively clean de Geografia a Estatistica provided data for the energy in the form of methane for direct combustion (such research. as in heating and cooking) or electricity generation. But this potential energy source is not being tapped. Indeed, Reports few African cities are aware of how much waste is being Arima, Eugenio "Incentivos fiscais e de credito para pecuaria na Amaz6nia Legal." Bernardes, Aline Tristao "Environmental Inspection, generated, collected, and disposed of. To help evaluate the potential for landfill gas utiliza- tion in Sub-Saharan Africa, this project assessed the Enforcement, and NMonitoring System, Minas Gerais, Brazil." availability of data on urban waste in the region and "Some NMechanisms for Biodiversity Protection in reviewed the accuracy and reliability of the data. To Brazil, with Emphasis on Their Application in the State of NMinas Gerais." Chomitz, Kenneth NI. Forthcoming. "Transferable Development identify cities offering good opportunities for landfill gas capture, the study then applied a specially tailored methodology integrating different sources of information. Rights and Forest Protection: An Exploratory Analysis." Inter- The first two criteria adopted-a population of more nationalregionalscience Review. than 1 million and annual rainfall exceeding 635 Chomirz, Kenneth NI., and Peter H. Nlay. "Iron and Carbon in the Cerrado: Environmental Impacts of Charcoal Production and tion or less rainfall would be ineligible for landfill gas capljse in South-Eastern Brazil." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Chomitz, Kenneth NI., and Timothy S. Thomas "Geo- graphic Patterns of Land tjse and Land Intensity in the Brazil- ian Amazon." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. millimeters-do not mean that cities with less popula- ture projects. Cities with a small population but more organic content in municipal solid waste could generate as much landfill gas as a large city. And a city with a large population could generate substantial landfill gas with less rain (such as Dakar). A review of the data showed that two good candidates "Determinants of Land Use in Amaz6nia: A Fine- for landfill gas capture projects are Conakry (with a Scale Spatial Analysis." American JournalofAgriculturalEconomics potential of 5.4 megawatts) and Dakar (8.5 megawatts). 85(4): A simple financial analysis suggests that such projects Chomitz, Kenneth NI., Timothy S. Thomas, and Antonio Salazar Brandao "Creating Nlarkets for Habitat Conservation When Habitats Are Heterogeneous." Paper presented at BIOECON conference, Venice, August. Schneider, Robert R., Adalberto Verissimo, Eug8nio Arima, Car- ing projects in Sub-Saharan Africa proposed for financlos SouzaJr., and Paulo Barreto SustainableAmazon:Lim- itations and Opportunities for Rural Development. World Bank would have an internal rate of return of about 35 percent in Conakry and 26 percent in Dakar, and a payback period of less than seven years. The methodology developed will be used for screen- ing by the Prototype Carbon Fund or Community Development Carbon Fund. 56 Environment

63 Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- Nlasaki 'Iakahashi With Fatimata Ouedraogo. Report Ouedraogo, Fatimata "Landfill Gas Capture Opportunity." ESNIAP 'Fechnical Series. World Bank, Washington, D.C. Markets for Environmental Resources Report Considine, Timothy, and Donald Larson "The Environment as a Factor of Production." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Measuring the Economic Value of Environmental Protection Projects: Methodology and Applications to Armenia's Lake Sevan The U.S. market for sulfur dioxide emission permits is Lake Sevan, the largest high-altitude reservoir of freshseen as a model for managing air pollution-one with water in the Transcaucasus and among the highest lakes implications for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, which in the world, has been sharply depleted over the past 50 envisions using tradable assets such as these permits as years. As a result of withdrawals for irrigation and energy a way to control greenhouse gas emissions. But some envi- production, the lake's level has fallen by 18 meters, its ronmental advocates believe that the creation of such surface area by 15 percent, and its volume of water by assets slows the adoption of new (and less-polluting) more than 40 percent. The Armenian government is technologies. This study considers how inventories of sul- working on an action plan to stop or partially reverse the fur dioxide permits affect technology choices, drawing damage. The costs of these actions are estimated to be lessons from the long-standing U.S. program for the high. The benefits have not yet been estimated. Kyoto market mechanisms. This research aimed to estimate the benefits related Econometric estimates based on panel data suggest to Lake Sevan's recreational and nonuse values by considerable substitution possibilities between emis- measuring Armenians' total willingness to pay to prevent sions. fuels, labor, and capital in electric power genera- further degradation of the lake. It also sought to improve tion. In the short run, with fixed stocks of emission the understanding of the diaspora's willingness to pay for permits and capital, changes in prices of low-sulfur fuel environmental amenities in their country of origin. And have the largest effects on factor substitution. While it sought to provide new insights into the contingent prices of emission permits are significant, relative fuel valuation methodology by further developing the prices in the short run are a more important determinant stochastic contingent valuation approach and comparing of factor substitution than are changes in permit prices. different formats for eliciting value (open-ended, close- As stocks of capital and permits adjust in the long run, ended, likelihood) and different survey modes (mail relative fuel prices continue to be the predominant force surveys, in-person interviews)-and thus to provide inducing factor substitution. better tools for conducting contingent valuationi studies The results also clearly demonstrate that an uncer- in both industrial and developing countries. tainty prcmium exists that justifies holding stocks of The project conducted mail surveys in Armenia, permits even in the presence of sizable user costs. Prices France (Paris), and the UTnited States, and in-person for permits induce factor substitution that improves the interviews in Armenia. Two different commodities were environment. the objects of valuation: the prevention of a further Although the findings suggest a short-run positive elas- lowering of Lake Sevan's level, and the raising of its ticity betwveen emissions and permit stocks, this effect is small level by 3 meters. Respondents received a thorough and insignificant. Thus fears that a large initial allocation of description of the predicted consequences of these permits may lead to higher emissions may be unfounded. actions-as well as of no action-for fisheries, biodiver- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- sity, the landscape, and energy and irrigation. Openopment-Donald Larson (dlarson@worldbank.org). ended, close-ended, and likelihood questions were used, Environment 57

64 and the answers compared. All respondents were asked success story clouded by serious human health and enviquestions relating to their current and future recreational ronmental damage caused by chemical pesticides. Use uses of the lake as well as questions designed to better of chemical pesticides more than doubled in the past understand their responses. decade, and examples of human pesticide poisonings and The results show that households in Armenia are environmental damage abound. willing to pay about $1.40 a month on average, or 1.4 The results suggest widespread pesticide use in the percent of their incomes, to prevent a further decline in major agricultural regions in the central part of southern water level. Armenians living in France and the United Brazil. The incidence of pesticide use is higher in munic- States are willing to donate about $160 per household to ipalities with high incomes, high education levels, large maintain the current water level. Contrary to research farms, and a high prevalence of sharecropping. Tlo the findings in the United States, this study finds higher extent that cross-sectional results can be extrapolatcd to willingness to pay with mail surveys than with personal time series, the results indicate that the continuation of interviews. trends toward commercialized agriculture and consoli- The research results have been presented at a number dated landholdings and away from family farming will of international workshops, including the Second World further encourage chemical pesticide use. Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists. Still, the main message is a hopeful one. Tl he results Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- suggest that pesticide use in Brazil is heavily skewed ture and Environment-Hua Wang (hwangl@ toward a few cash crops for export: soybeans, sugarcane, worldbank.org), Maureen Cropper, Ben6it Laplante, cotton, fruits, and tobacco. Thus targeting interventions Craig Meisner, Xun Wu, Wenhua Di, and Yanghong Jin. to a few crops should be a promising strategy for slowing the growth in pesticide use in Brazil. Pesticide Use in Brazil The project transferred the models and databases it produced, including an algorithm for estimating pesticide Most environmentalists agree that liberalization of agri- use intensities, to Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e cultural trade is likely to bring about big growth in the Estatistica through a series of staff training sessions. use of chemical pesticides in developing countries- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucalong with associated human health hazards and envi- ture and Environment-Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@ ronmental degradation. But empirical evidence on this worldbank.org) and Craig NMeisner. With Nlandu issue is inadequate, owing to a dearth of reliable data on Mamingi, University of West Indies, Barbados, Rosane pesticide use in developing countries. de Andrade Memoria Moreno, Instituto Brasileiro de This research analyzed the use of chemical pesti- Geografia e Estatistica; and Guilherme Soria Bastos cides in Brazil in the 1990s, a decade of trade liberaliza- Filho, Instituto Brasileiro de Economia. Instituto tion. The research, probably the first systematic analysis Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica provided data from of trends in pesticide use in Brazil in that period, docu- the 1995/96 Agricultural Census of Brazil. mented the environmental costs and human health hazards associated with pesticide use, mapped regional Reports differences, and identified areas and crops where the Dasgupta, Susmita, Nlandu Mamingi. and Craig Mcisncr problem is most intense and where monitoring and inter- "Pesticide Use in Brazil in the Era of Agro-Industrialization and vention can yield the greatest social benefits. The Globalization." Environment and Development E(onomics 6(4): methodology included geographic information system (GIS) overlays and cross-sectional heteroskedasticity- Meisner, Craig, and Nlandu Mamingi "Seeking Solutions adjusted regressions. for Agro-Chemical Pollution: Evidence from Brazil." Paper Drawing on a wide range of data, the study found that presented at American Agricultural Economics Association the remarkable growth in Brazil's agricultural trade is a International and Industry Conference on Agroindustrialization. 58 Environment

65 Globalization, and International Development, Nashville. Public Disclosure of Industrial Pollution in China August 6-7. China is experimenting with public disclosure of indus- Pollution from Chemical Use trial pollution as a way to induce industries to reduce polin Agriculture luting emissions. This study, designed to inform China's State Environmental Protection Agency and the inter- Indiscriminate use and inappropriate handling of national community about the benefits and costs of the chemical pesticides in agriculture have led to serious pilot disclosure program, is analyzing the effect of dishuman health and environmental problems in many closure on emissions and the cost associated with the pilot developing countries. Despite the severity of these program. The research is based on econometric analyses effects, however, information on these issues remains of data from surveys of firms, plant managers, and local largely anecdotal. government agencies. Through empirical research in Bangladesh, this The results will be widely distributed in China as project aims to contribute to a more systematic well as in other countries, where it is expected that they assessment of the risks relating to pesticide use in will be used in deciding whether, and in what form, to developing countries. The research is undertaking a adopt disclosure as a regulatory policy. In response to thorough analysis of the risks associated with chemical widespread interest, informational presentations were pesticides and their delivery system; the availability of made to policymakers in China in November information on risks, safe handling practices, and safer Responsibility: Development Research Group. Infrastrmcalternatives to chemical pesticides; the dynamics and ture and Environment-David Wheeler (dwheelerl@ determinants of farmers' choices; their perception of the worldbank.org) and Hua Wang. With Jinnan Wang and risks associated with pesticide use; and gaps in knowl- Dong Cao, Chinese Research Academy of Environedge about appropriate application and related mental Sciences, Beijing; and Genfa Lu and Yuan Wang, externalities. Nanjing University, School of the Environment. The analysis is based on primary data collected from pesticide traders and users in Bangladesh as well as Report secondary data on active ingredients in pesticides and on Wang, Hua, Jun Bi, David Wheeler, Jinnan Wang, Dong Cao pesticide intoxications. The methodology includes Genfa Lu, and Yuan Wang "Environmental Performance geographic information system (GIS) overlays and cross- Rating and Disclosure: China's Green-Watch Program." Policy sectional heteroskedasticity-adjusted regressions. Research Working Paper World Bank, Development The findings will have immediate applicability, Research Group, WAashington, D.C. particularly for the government of Bangladesh. The research will provide a comprehensive view of Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions occupational exposure to pesticides; perceptions of risk among wholesalers, retailers, and users; their knowledge In most industrial countries the mortality benefits of and use of safe handling practices; and the potential environmental programs accrue primarily to older peofor safer alternatives. The results will also contribute ple. In the case of air pollution controls the agc distribto World Bank operations in rural and agricultural ution of statistical lives saved parallels the age distribution development in Bangladesh. of deaths, implying that 75 percent of people saved are Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- over 65 years old. Yet the most common method of valuture and Environment-Susmita Dasgupta (sdasgupta@ ing these risk reductions is to use compensating wage difworldbank.org) and Craig Nleisner; and Development ferentials from the labor market. Policy Group-Mainul Huq. With Nlandu Nlamingi, To remedy this difficulty, this study has developed a University of West Indies, Barbados. survey that asks people ages what they would pay Environment 59

66 to reduce their risk of dying. Specifically, it asks respon- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucdents what they would pay for a drug (not covered by ture and Environment-Maureen Cropper (mcropper@ health insurance) that, if taken for the next 10 years, worldbank.org). With Anna Alberini, University of NIarywould reduce their chances of dying over this period by land; Ronald Giocree and Bernard O'Brien, MlcMaster a stated amount. This question is preceded by exercises University, Ottawa; Alan Krupnick, Resources for the to familiarize respondents with the concept of risk of Future, Washington, D.C.; and Nathalic Simon, U.S. dying and with their own baseline risk of dying over the Environmental Protection Agency. The National Scinext 10 years. Also preceding it is a section discussing ence Foundation (United States), the U.S. Environmeasures that people ages commonly undertake mental Protection Agency, and Resources for the Future to prolong their lives (such as cancer screening tests and contributed funding for the research. Health Canada drug therapy for high cholesterol or high blood pres- provided funding for administering the Canadian survey. sure) and the quantitative risk reductions that such measures provide. Reports Results from Canada and the United States suggest Alberini, Anna, Maureen Cropper, Alan Krulpnick, and Nathalic that the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying Simon. Forthcoming. "LDoes the V'alue of a Statistical Life Vary decreases only slightly with age and is unaffected by with Agc and Health Status? Evidence from the U.S. and current health status. Estimates of the value of a statis- Canada." Journal of EnvironmentalEconomics andl Management. tical life are slightly lower than those obtained in the labor Krupnick, Alan, Nlaurccn Cropper, Anna Alberini, Nathalic Simon, market literature. Bernard O'Brien, Ronald Goerce, and NMartin Heintzelman. The results of the research were cited by the U.S. Office "Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality of NIanagement and Budget in formulating guidelines for Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Rescost-benefit analyses of health and safety regulations. idents." Journal of Risk and lncertrainty 24(2): Environment

67 Infrastructure and Urban Development Connecting Cities with Macroeconomic Concerns: The Missing Link Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, l Trban Cluster Sector tjnit-nlila Freire (mfreire@cvorldbank.org). With Mlario Polese and Pamela Echeverria, Institut National Taking private firms as the primary actors in urban de la Recherche ScientifiqICe, lontreal; Alvaro Ramalho Jr., economies, this research project examined the relation- ship between cities and national economic development and the implications of this relationship for public pol- University of Costa Rica; Mario Lungo, Oficina de Planifiicy, especially that relating to poverty reduction. Studies have shown that the way in which cities are structured, governed, and managed has an impact on economic wel- fare levels. In particular, lack of adequate urban services affects the incentives for private investment and employ- ment creation. This study estimated the cost and forgone Freire, Nlila, and Mario Pol&se. with Pamcla Echeverria (Conrevenue associated with failures to provide essential necting Cities w,ith Varcroegonomic (oncerns: he Jllissing I,inkurban services and the effect on economic activity, exports, and employment creation. And it identified ways to help local authorities pay attention to those cases. The study was conducted by five regional research Fundac,o Joao Pinheiro, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Rosendo Pujol, Programa de Desarrollo l rbano Sostenible (Produs), caci6n de la Area Mletropolitana de San Salvador, El Salvador; and Salvador Perez-Nlendoza, Benemerita UTniversidad Auton6ma de Puebla, Nlexico. Reports Do l.ora/ Public Servues JlIatter A Ca(se S'tudy oj 'ife Cities. NMontreal: Institot National de la Recherche Scientifique: and Washington, D.C.: WVorld Bank. Lungo, Mlario, and A. Abrcgo `Scrriciios urbanos deficientes centers in five cities: Belo Horizonte (Brazil), Nlontreal en San Salvador? JTn obstaculo para la instalaci6n dc nuevas (Canada), Puebla t N\,L,.,Pu San Jose (Costa Rica), and empresas?" Oficina de Planificaci6n de la Arca Nletropolitana San Salvador (El Salvador). Each center surveyed de San Salvador, El Salvador. firms in selected sectors to investigate the costs associ- Perez-Mendoza, Salvador, and E Aguilar Cruz "Servicios ated with failure to provide adequate urban public goods publicos, infraestrrctura y marco regulador en el costo de las (including safety, regulations, property rights, and spe- empresas del Nestido v alimentos. El caso de la ciudade de cific transport conditions) as well as mixed public-private goods (such as water and solid waste management). After the surveys were implemented, the project organized focus groups to provide additional information and assem- bled the final database. Results of the analysis show that such factors as safety, urban violence, and corruption consistently affect the pro- ductivity of firms in the sample. ithe results are being disseminated through several regional seminars organized with the partner research centers. In addition, the project is producing tool kits to help local authorities and WAorld Bank urban staffimprove urban development strategies, measure the effect of urban development and improvement activities, and better identify and deal with urban poverty and the investment climate in large cities. Puebla (Mlexico)." Benemerita Itni\ ersidad Auton6rua de Puebla. Mlexico. Pujol, Rosendo "Importancia de los biencs publicos para la industria alimenticia y textil: el caso dc San Josc Costa Rica." Programa de Desarrollo tjrbano Sostenible (Produs), UIniver- sity of Costa Rica, San Jose. Ramalho, Alvaro, Jr "Investigaci6ncs de campo de Belo Horizonte-Brazil. Industria del vcstuario productivo de confecci6nes." FundacaoJoao Pinhciro, Belo Horizonte. Brazil. Economic and Engineering Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Managing Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs This research project developed an approach to assist water rcsource managers in devising strategies for 61

68 Development Department-Ariel Dinar. With Farhed Shah and Shigekatzu Kawashima, University of Con- necticut; George Annandale and Tamara Butler-Johndrow, Engineering and Hydrosystems; Atila Bilgi, Hallibur- ton KBR; Rodney White and Edmund Atkinson, HR Wallingford, UTnited Kingdom; Hideki Otsuki, NEWJEC, Japan; Dale Whittington, UTniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; John Nestler, U.S. Army Engi- neering Research and Development Center; Khalid Mahmood, George Washington University; Gian Paolo di Silvio, University of Padova; Thomas Haglund, San Marino Associates; and Eaten Saihi, Golder Associates. The Water Resources Environment 'echnology Center, Japan; and the World Bank-Netherlands Water Partnership Program contributed funding for the research. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers contributed staff time. sustainable use of storage reservoirs by addressing the problem of sedimentation management. The approach includes a mathematical optimization model that can be used to determine the engineering and economic feasibility of sustainable reservoir management. The study found that traditional practice in designing dam and reservoir projects needed to be reconsidered. Traditional practice is based on a "design life," which assumes that water resource projects recover the project investment over their life through the benefits they produce. This approach does not consider how to deal with projects at the end of their design life, instead assuming that future generations will deal with problems with reservoir sedimentation and abandonment. The study recommends a "life cycle management" approach, aimed at designing and managing water resource infrastructure for perpetual use. Alternatively, if it is known in advance that a project cannot be managed sustainably, a retirement fund should be set up. Incorporating the salvage value of water resource infrastructure and performing economic optimization into perpetuity makes it possible to determine the economic feasibility of sustainable use. As the application of the reservoir conservation (RESCON) concept develops, it could influence the way policymakers and engineers approach dam design. It could also introduce the concept of intergenerational equity and promote establishment of retirement funds. RESCON components are already being considered or included in several World Bank operations. Policymakers in several developing countries were involved during the implementation of the project and in sharing the results after its completion, including Kenya (Tana and Ahti River Development Agency and the city of Nairobi), Morocco (Direction Gen6rale de Hydraulique), and Sri Lanka (Mahaweli Authority). In addition, results were discussed in 23 international gatherings in both developing and industrial countries and with World Bank staff at meetings and during operational missions. Responsibility: Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Vice Presidency, Quality Assurance and Compliance-Alessandro Palmieri (apalmieri@worldbank.org) and Catherine Golitzen; and Agriculture and Rural Reports Kawashima, Shigekatzu, 'ramara Butler-Johndrow, George Annan- dale, and Farhed Shah Reservoir Conservation: Economic and Engineering Evaluation of Alternative StrategiesforManaging Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs. Vol. 2, RESCONAlodel and User.4anual. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Palmieri, Alessandro, Farhed Shah, Georgc Annandale, and Ariel Dinar Reservoir Conservation: Economic and Engineering Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for lmanaging Sedimentation in Storage Reservoirs. Vol. 1, The RESCON Approach. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Emergence from Subsistence: Infrastructure, Location, and Development in Nepal Intuitively, the success of such projects as roads, irriga- tion projects, fertilizer distribution programs, and small business assistance schemes would seem to depend crit- ically on where they are located. But research has shed little light on the effect of location on economic outcomes. This research aims to begin filling that gap by studying the relationships among infrastructure, geographic location, and economic development in Nepal-a particularly suitable place to study spatial specialization because of its extreme diversity in accessibility and proximity to urban centers. 62 Infrastructure ind Urban Development

69 To study how proximity to towns and cities affects or engage in household chores, while rural women work households' participation in labor and output markets and within and outside the household at the same time. their allocation of land, the research uses a modified von This research implies that better infrastructure will Thunen model of specialization. The econometric esti- dramatically change not only the specialization pattern mation takes a nonparametric approach that allows for a but also women's role in the workforce. The effects on flexible relationship between household decisions and the specialization pattern will be magnified because of proximity to cities of different sizes. the agglomeration effects that work through markets The first stage of the research combines household rather than within sectors. data from the 1995/96 Nepal Living Standards Survey The results, though promising, are based on crosswith geographic information system data on travel time sectional analysis, in which the geographic location of to major cities, and uses urban population data from the households is partly endogenous. To account for 1991 population census. Estimation based on a cross- individual-specific fixed effects and the endogeneity of section of 3,300 households reveals a strong spatial divi- road placement, the second stage of research will use data sion of labor. Nonfarm employment is heavily concen- from the 2003/04 Nepal Living Standards Survey, which trated in and around cities (up to four hours of travel time), will provide information on how urbanization and the while agricultural wage employment dominates villages construction and upgrading of roads since 1995 have located farther away (three to eight hours). Isolated affected market participation and geographic patterns of villages (more than eight hours from the nearest city) are specialization. The research will also investigate how essentially self-subsistent in both farm and nonfarm prod- liberalization of trade with India has affected border ucts. Vegetable and cereal production for sale takes place trade and the spatial division of labor within Nepal. near urban centers, while oilseed and other commercial The research results should help in identifying suitcrops are more important at intermediate distances. able location strategies for projects. Since the size and These findings are consistent with the von Thunen accessibility of the market have a significant influence model of concentric specialization and also show the on the types of rural diversification observed, the results importance of city size. The research also finds signifi- suggest that these factors should be taken into account cant border effects: proximity to Indian towns does not in deciding the location of infrastructure and rural develhave the same effect on local specialization as proxim- opment projects. ity to Nepalese towns. Findings have been presented to World Bank staff in The research uses the 1999 Labor Force Survey data- the South Asia Region and at development conferences covering 14,355 households in 719 villages across 73 and incorporated into economic and sector work on trade districts-to study the pattern of specialization at the level and competitiveness in Nepal. of individuals and villages rather than households. The Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Develeconometric estimation, based on a simple theoretical opment-forhad Shilpi (fshilpi@worldbank.org). With model of specialization in the presence of increasing NMarcel Fafchamps, Oxford University. The Danish, returns and agglomeration effects, reveals that villages Japanese, and Swedish Consultant Trust Funds have in and near cities have more diversified and market- contributed funding for the research. oriented activities-implying the existence of externalities that are harnessed through markets. The agglom- Reports eration effects appear to be much smaller within Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi "'I'he Spatial Divisectors-except in manufacturing, where proximity to sion of Labor in Nepal." Journal of Development Studies 39(6): cities is associated with larger firm size and more diver sified employment structures. In addition, evidence "Subjective Well-Being, Isolation, and Rivalry" shows that urban women specialize more than rural World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, women. Urban women either work in regular paid jobs D.C. lnfrastructure and Urban Development 63

70 -Forthcoming. "Cities and Specialization: Evidence from traveled, as do city shape, road density, and (in rail cities) South Asia." Economic Journal. annual rail miles supplied. The elasticity of vehicle miles traveled with respect to each variable is small. But chang- The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure ingseveralmeasuresofurbanformsimultaneouslycansigon Travel Demand nificantly reduce annual vehicle miles traveled. For example, moving the sample households from a city with the This research aims to quantify the effects of urban sprawl characteristics of Atlanta to a city with those of Boston and availability of public transport on the travel demand would reduce annual vehicle miles traveled by 25 percent. (annual miles driven and choice of transport mode for Results have been presented at seminars at the commuting) of U.S. households. A presumption exists National Bureau of Economic Research, at annual meetthat decentralizing jobs and housing greatly increases ings of the American Economic Association, and at travel demand. But attempts to measure this effect have Columbia University and the universities of California, been hampered by the use of city-level data on travel, Colorado (Boulder), Illinois, and Texas (Austin). which is determined simultaneously with urban spatial Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucstructure. To overcome this problem, this study matches ture and Environment-NMaureen Cropper (mcropper@ city-level measures of sprawl and transit supply, which worldbank.org) and Zmarak Shalizi. are exogenous to individual households, with householdlevel data on annual miles driven and principal mode of Report commuting. Bento, Antonio NI., Mlaureen Cropper, Ahmed Nlushfiq Nlobarak, The study first constructs measures that capture dif- and Katja Vinha "The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure ferent aspects of the spatial configuration of cities and on Travel Demand in the tutnited States." Policy Research are exogenous to individual households, including a Working Paper World Bank, D)evelopment Research measure of compactness (a spatial Gini coefficient of Group, Washington, D.C. residential sprawl), a measure of jobs-housing balance, and a measure of city shape. To describe the transit net- Information, Knowledge, and Capacity Building work, the study measures the supply of public transit (bus for Effective Urban Strategies: Information-Based and rail miles supplied) and road density. Instruments for Urban Management The study then merges its measures of urban spatial structure, computed for the 114 largest U.S. metropoli- Decisionmakers in urban areas increasingly are becomtan areas in 1990, with the 1990 National Personal Trans- ing responsible for designing policies and programs to portation Survey. It uses the resulting data set of around improve the quality of life of urban residents. To help 9,000 households to estimate equations for annual improve the efficacy of such policies and programs, this vehicle miles traveled and choice of transport mode for project has initiated research and analytic work to develop commuting. This yields estimates of the elasticity of detailed information systems within cities for identifytravel demand with respect to population and employ- ing, evaluating, and prioritizing issues relating to urban ment sprawl and characteristics of the transport system, management, urban productivity, and urban poverty. controlling for such relevant household characteristics The underlying premise is that public disclosure of credas income, education, and household size and ible information can offset weak institutions: public discomposition. semination of data-by encouraging transparency, The study finds that lower road density, higher popu- accountability, and participation in decisionmakinglation centrality, and higher rail miles supplied signifi- can improve the effectiveness of public programs and the cantly reduce the probability of driving to work in U.S. cities. quality of urban management. Population centrality and jobs-housing balance have a Focusing on India, the project has initiated collabosignificant effect on annual household vehicle miles rative efforts between the World Bank and local 64 Infrastrurture and Urban Development

71 governments, research institutions, the private sector, Lall, Somik V "Property Taxes and Local Government and nongovernmental organizations to encourage the Finances in India." World Bank, Development Research Group, collection and use of spatially detailed data and related Washington, D.C. analytic methods for urban planning and policy. Large- Lall, Somik V., Uwe Deichmann, Mattias K. A. Lundberg, and Nazsample, georeferenced household surveys have been mul Chaudhury "Tenure, Diversity, and Commitment: administered in Bangalore, Bhopal, Jaipur, and Pune to Community Participation for UJrban Service Provision." Policy capture heterogeneity within these cities in living stan- Research Working Paper World Bank, Development dards, service delivery, and resource mobilization. Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also forthcoming in Once the data are collected, validated, and analyzed, Journal of Development Studies.) the project will undertake efforts to train local government counterparts in using the data in economic and spa- Information Technology and Development tial analysis, build capacity for using and sharing spatial data for urban management, and provide training in con- This research is looking at the impact of information and ducting surveys to monitor service delivery and quality communications technology on poverty in developing of life. The data will be made publicly available to countries, particularly in rural areas. It will assess both researchers once the results have been shared with the the impact of policy reforms relating to such technology partner city governments. and the effect of the development of information and Government officials and researchers have been involved communications infrastructure. from the outset in designing and implementing the project, The study includes both a macroeconomic and a forming a national steering committee to ensure that the microeconomic component. The macroeconomic comresearch is useful for policy analysis and decisionmaking. ponent will use econometric analysis of cross-country data And coordination with World Bank operations staff aims to to assess the impact of different policies on the diffusion ensure its utility for lending and policy dialogue. of information and communications technology in devel- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infra- oping countries, focusing on access for poor people. structure and Environment-Zmarak Shalizi (zshalizi@ Using nationwide data on information and commuworldbank.org), Somik V Lall, and Uwe Deichmann. With nications infrastructure and village-level survey results, Pulin Nayak; Atul Sarma; and the Society for Development the microeconomic component will assess the impact of Studies, India. The U.K. Department for International change in policies and infrastructure on the socioeconomic Development is contributing funding for the research. conditions of poor people in rural Bangladesh and Guatemala. Reports The study is now constructing supporting databases. Deichmann, l lwe, and Somik V Lall "Are You Satisfied? Cit- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastrucizen Feedback and Delivery of UTrban Services." Policy Research ture and Environment-David Wheeler (dwheelerl@ Working Paper World Bank, Devclopment Research worldbank.org), Susmita Dasgupta, Robert Schware, and Group. NVashington, D.C. Charles Kenny. With Kiran Pandey, Craig Meisner, and Deichmann, tuwe, Somik 1v Lall, Ajay Suri, and Pragya Rajoria. Mainul Huq "Information-Based Instruments for Improved Llrban Mianagement." Policy Research Working Paper World Infrastructure Logistics and the Costs Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. of Doing Business: Physical, Policy, Kapoor, Nludit, Somik V' Lall, Nlattias K. A. Lundberg, and Zmarak and Institutional Barriers Shalizi. Forthcoming. "Location and Welfare in Cities: Impacts of Policy Interventions on the UTrban Poor." Policy Research As production, marketing, and distribution activities Working Paper. Wvorld Bank, Development Research Group, have become decentralized worldwide, logistics have Washington, D.C. come to play a critical role in defining, disaggregating, I nfrostructure and Urban Development 65

72 and directing economic activities and flows of goods and nologies over the next five years. The fund would services. Improvements in logistics services lower the cost primarily finance modest cash grants per connection to of goods delivered by reducing institutional inefficien- ensure affordability and attract rural businesses to sell, cies such as customs delays-and thus expanding install, and service connections. Financing for the grants market access, private investment opportunities, and would be raised as new and additional funding from employment. donors and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Most developing countries confront serious inade- The target fund size is $150 million, implying perquacies in logistics services, however. Beyond typical inef- connection subsidies in the range of $ , dependficiencies in physical infrastructure, such as inefficient ing on assumptions about how much of the fund would ports and poorly linked transport networks, they also be used for administration and other purposes. The unit face significant policy and institutional barriers. These grant is based nominally on small solar home systems. The impediments not only directly increase the cost of deliv- Million Connections Fund would operate through existering goods to markets but also seriously affect quality, ing institutions, achieving "scale-up" by replicating reliability, and delivery time, undermining countries' ongoing projects. positions in highly competitive international markets. This research aims to determine the viability and This research project will assess the effects of logis- attractiveness of the Mvillion Connections Fund from tics costs, time, and timeliness on the trade performance the point of view of World Bank financing and the need of developing countries. Since these factors cannot be to build photovoltaic markets in developing countries. considered in isolation from others that affect trade flows, It is also examining the economic rationale for energy the research must proceed by testing hypotheses within subsidies for the poor through a literature review. a comprehensive framework for international trade analy- The project is reviewing and analyzing existing prosis. The analytic approach is based on a multistage model jects and other efforts in the off-grid sector and estigrounded in discrete choice theory and incorporating mating their likely outcomes, evaluating the potential for the effect of logistics costs and time. The model will be scale-up in various countries and assessing the priority extended to address timeliness. Like the gravity model, accorded to the off-grid sector by World Bank client the discrete choice framework can incorporate comple- countries, and developing a method for estimating ecomentarity, transferability, and intervening opportunity nomically justified levels of support for off-grid systems. effects. The project is also holding discussions within the World The project is now collecting data from several coun- Bank Group's energy practice on the approach to scaletries in Africa, East Asia, and Latin America. Once the up, how it fits in with other rural energy initiatives, and project is complete, the data will be shared through the how to manage it within a broader rural energy context. World Bank's Private Sector Development Web site. The research has found no clear argument for estab- And where appropriate and possible, country-level data lishing a new and separate fund to do what the GEF is will be shared in policy discussions with countries. already doing. Indeed, the proposed fund is much more Responsibility: Investment Climate Unit, World Bank-Uma narrowly focused than GEF grant cofinancing for renew- Subramanian (usubramanian@worldbank.org). With able energy. And it provides no new value added to the William P. Anderson and T R. Lakshmanan, Boston World Bank Group's search for efficient, effective means University. of broadening access to off-grid renewable energy services. The World Bank Group's portfolio of off-grid Million Connections Fund renewable energy projects already targets some 1.5 million connections. Shell has proposed a Million Connections Fund aimed Findings have been disseminated through presentaat achieving an additional one million connections to tions to World Bank senior management, the GEF, and basic electricity service using renewable energy tech- Shell management. 66 Infrastructure and Urban Development

73 Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- was the subject of a panel discussion at the Second World Richard Jeremy Spencer (rspencer@worldbank.org). Forum on Energy Regulation in Rome in October Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Unit- Reports Bernard Tenenbaum (btenenbaum@worldbank.org). International ResoLurces Group "Evaluating the Potential for Scale-[Jp of Off-Grid Renewable Power." Washington, D.C. Teplitz-Sembitzkv, Witold "Economically justified Levels of Support for Off-Grid Electricity Supply." World Bank, Energy Report Bakovic, Tonci, Bernard Tenenbaum, and Fiona Woolf Reg- ulation by Contract: A New IVay to Privatize Electriiy Distribution? World Bank Working Paper 14. Washington, D.C. and WVater Department, Washington, D.C. Draft. Regulatory Review of Power Purchase Regulation by Contract for Private Electricity Distribution Companies Power purchase costs constitute the single largest cost for electricity distribution companies. But the pass-through This research project examined international experience of power purchase costs for distribution companies is a in developing successful and unsuccessful regulatory frequently ignored regulatory issue in industrial and systems for private sector participation. In the light of the developing countries alike. Pass-through rules tend to be literature on the theory and practice of economic regula- especially important for developing countries, because tion, the research analyzed case studies of the experience incumbent utilities are likely to be the sole supplier for of developing country regulators in establishing new most retail customers for the foreseeable future. Elecregulatory systems for privatizing electricity distribution. tricity regulators therefore need to establish rules that The analysis revealed the following key lessons relat- create incentives for distribution companies to purchase ing to regulation by contract: efficiently while allowing them to recover the costs of * Independence is not enough. their purchases. * The regulatory contract must be a political This study compares and contrasts several passcontract. through methodologies used in both industrial and devel- * Regulation by contract as against regulation by oping countries, identifying lessons and best practices. commission is a false dichotomy. Its review suggests that the best methods for establish- * Regulation by contract is a new name for an old ing pass-through benchmarks rely on market prices and paradigm. competitive procurement. But when power sectors are * Electricity consumers cannot be the forgotten third at an early stage of reform, market prices may be unavailparty to a regulatory contract. able or distorted by market power. Based on an exami- * Investors must have confidence that the contract will nation of these cases, the study proposes an evolutionary be enforced fairly and efficiently. path for pass-through regulation. This regulatory path is * The heart of a regulatory contract is a prespecified, meant to be indicative rather than prescriptive. performance-based, multiyear tariff setting system. Ultimately, the best methodology depends on a country's * A regulatory contract is sustainable only if the under- objectives and the power sector's structure, implying a lying economics are viable. need for case-by-case design of pass-through rules. * A multiyear tariff system can be put into operation Responsibility: Energy and Water Department, Energy Uniteven in the absence of high-quality data. Luiz Maurer (Imaurer@worldbank.org). * Regulation by contract should be reserved for private distribution companies. The findings have been discussed in World Bank operational missions in India and Lesotho. The research Report Arizu, Beatriz, Luiz Maurer, and Bernard Tenenbaum "Pass Through of Power Purchase Costs: Regulatory Challenges and lnfrastructure and Urban Development 67

74 International Practices." Energy and Mlining Sector Board Dis- cussion Paper 10. World Bank, Energy and Mlining Sector Board, Washington, D.C. River Basin Management at the Lowest Appropriate Level An internationally accepted principle of river basin management calls for decentralizing decisionmaking to the Iowest appropriate level. But experience with World Bank-financed projects around the world suggests that while translating this concept into laws and regulations is relatively easy, its actual application often encounters obstacles because of the varying interests of stakeholder groups. As a result, projects based on this principle may fail to realize potential benefits. Until now, however, there has been no comprehensive review of the performance of river basin organizations, especially of the political economy issues involved. Because centralized basin management usually fails, decentralized management with water user associations is generally assumed to be the answer. This research will shed analytic light on that assumption and on whether there is a need to adjtist the decentralization policies that have been promoted. The findings should be important to WVorld Bank clients, given the major institutional changes implied by decentralizing river basin management to the lowest possible level. The study will also develop a methodology for analyzing local settings, to help design processes for decentralizing river basin management, as well as for analyzing the outcomes of WVorld Bank projects that include such decentralization. The sttidv is surveying river basin organizations to gather the data needed to test hypotheses developed from a theoretical model. An econometric analysis of observations, using variotis functional forms and model specifications, will provide quantitative estimates of the importance of different economic, institutional, political, and locational characteristics to success in decentralization. Survcys have been sent to around 130 mcmbers of the International Network of Basin Organizations, and statistical analysis will start once a satisfactory sample has been obtained. In addition, the project will study eight eases in depth through field visits and interviews: Alto Tiete (Brazil), Brantas (Indonesia), Fraser (Canada), Guadalquivir (Spain), Jaguaribe (Brazil), Murray Darling (Australia), Tarcoles (Costa Rica), and Warta (Poland). Initial results point to the importance of political economy in implementing river basin management strategies, the long-term nature of such projects, the need for champions, and the risk of setbacks occurring when political conditions change. They also appear to show that the political implications of decentralization are often underestimated and that decentralization cannot be addressed as a technical issue alone. Results will be disseminated through publications, a country workshop, XVorld Bank workshops and seminars, and consultation with staff of the World Bank and the International Network of Basin Organizations. Responsibility: South Asia Region, Environment and Social Sector Unit-Karin Erika Kemper (kkemper@ worldbank.org); and Agriculture and Rural Develop- ment Department-Ariel Dinar. With William Blomquist and Anjali Bhat, Indiana University; Maureen Ballestero; Rosa Maria Formiga; William Fru; Consuelo Giansante, University of Seville; Brian Haisman; David NMarshall, Fraser Basin Council, Canada; Jyothsna Mody; Kikkeri Ramu; and Andrzej 'Ionderski. Rural Roads: Welfare Impact Evaluation Rural roads are often seen as key to raising living stan- dards in poor rural areas. Yet despite the consensus on their importance and much anecdotal evidence, there is surprisingly little hard evidence on the size and nature of their benefits. This study aims to assess the impact of rural roads on poverty and contribute to policy discussions of how best to allocate scarcc public resources. The study is con- ducting an empirical investigation in Vietnam-where the World Bank is financing and helping to implement a large-scale rural road project for poverty reduction-to find out how the determinants of living standards change over time in communes that have road projects compared with ones that do not. 68 Infrastructure and Urban Development

75 The analysis is based on panel data from surveys "Choosing Rural Road Investments to Help Reduce a baseline survey of a random sample of 100 project Povertv." lior/ddeve/oprnent 30(4): communes and 100 nonproject communes in 1997, followed by subsequcnt rounds of data collection in van de Walle, Iominique, and L)orothyjcan Cratty "Impact Evaluation ofa Rural Road Rchabilitation Project in Vietnam." 1999, 2001, and Other surveys xverc also conducted WVorld Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. in each round. In each sampled commune a questionnaire was administered to 15 randomly sampled households. A district-lcvcl survey was implcmented to help put the commune-level data in context, and an extensive province-levcl database was creatcd to help undcrstand the selection of provinces for the project. Because the impact of a road project varies with the size of the change resulting from the project and the method of project implementation, a project-lcvel database for each of the project areas surveyed is also being constructed. 'I'hc analysis is using the bascline data to model the selection of project sites, wvith a focus on the underlying social, economic, and political economy processes. It is using the later rounds to understand gains measurable at the commllune level, conditional on selection. Several approaches have been tricd, including double differ- encing with matclhing methods and a modificd random Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth While the death rate due to traffic fatalities has fallen in most high-income countries over the past 25 years, it has risen in developing countries. This is a result of the effect of economic development on the motorization rate (the ratio of vehicles to population) and on fatalities per vehicle. To better understand these effects requires studying how rapidly the motorization rate increases as economies grow and how rapidly fatalities per vehicle decline. This study examines the etfect of income growth on the death rate due to traffic fatalities-as well as on fatalities per vehicle and on the motorization rate-using panel data from 88 countries for Estimating fixed effects models, the study projects traffic fatalities and the effects model allowing for cndogeneitv of program place- stock of motor vehicles to inent. Nlatching methods are used to select ideal controls from among the 100 sampled nonprojcct communes, and outcomes in project communes are then compared with those ftound in the control communes before and after the introduction of the road projects. Outcome indicators include commune-level agricultural yields, The relationship between fatalities per vehicle and per capita income at first increases with per capita income, reaches a peak, and then declines. 'T'he reason is that at low income levels the increase in motor vehicles outpaces the decline in fatalities per motor vehicle. At higher income levels the reverse occurs. The income level at income diversification, employment opportunities, avail- which per capita traffic fatalities peaks is around $8,600 ability of goods, land use and distribution, services and facilities, and asset wealth and distribution. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- vices-i)ominiquc v an de Walle (dvandewalle@ worldbank.org) and Dorothyjean Cratty. With Vu Tuan Anh, Economics Institite, lflanoi. Reports van de WNallel, ldomini(luc "Assessing the Poverty Impact of (in 1985 international dollars)-within the range at which other externalities, such as air and water pollution, have been found to peak. Projections of traffic fatalities suggest that the global road death toll will grow by around 66 percent between 2000 and But the rate of change will vary in different parts of the world: fatalities will decline by around 28 percent in high-income countries but increase by almost 92 percent in China and 147 percent in India. And Rural Road Projects." \World Bank. I)evelopment Research while the fatality rate will fall to less than 1 per 10,000 Group, Washington, D).C ((000(. "Choosing Rural Road In\vcstmcnts to Help Reduice Ploverrv." IPolicv Research WVorking Papcr World Bank, )cvclopment Rsearch Group, Washington,. ).C. persons in high-income countries by 2020, it will rise to around 2 per 10,000 in developing countrics. This research has provided input to the World Health Organization's IWorld Health Report 2004' (Geneva, Infrastructure ond Urban Development 69

76 forthcoming), which focuses on road traffic injuries. sample. With the help of statistical models, it will then Results also have been presented at seminars at the Uni- use the sample results to estimate preliminary measures versity of Maryland and Resources for the Future and at of urban land consumption for all cities with populaa transport conference in Hungary. tions in 2000 of more than 100,000, so as to establish the Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastructure present global norms of urban land consumption for and Environment-NIaureen Cropper different types of cities. worldbank.org) and Zmarak Shalizi. Using the census data, the study will construct statistical models to examine the relationships between Report different dimensions and patterns of urban land con- Kopits, Elizabeth, and Maureen Cropper "Traffic Fatalities sumption and four key dimensions of urban povertyand Economic Growth." Policy Research Working Paper overcrowding, access to piped water, access to sewerage, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. and access to home ownership. Given the norms established by the statistical inves- Urban Growth Management Initiative tigation, the project will identify a dozen cities in the sample that are clear outliers, consuming much larger or According to the most recent United Nations projec- smaller quantities of urban land and generating signifitions, the urban population of the developing countries, cantly more or less compact patterns of urban expansion. now growing by 2.3 percent annually, will double in 30 It will study these cities in greater detail to determine years-from around 2 billion in 2000 to nearly 4 billion what factors and, most important, what public policies in Based on current settlement practices, that lead to their deviating from the norms. implies a doubling of built-up areas in developing coun- The project will also identify three cities-one each try cities on average and, accounting for per capita income in Africa, Asia, and Latin America-that are preparing for growth, even a quadrupling in some cases. growth and assist them in developing projects for this pur- This research seeks to expand our understanding of pose. (Tegucigalpa, Honduras, has been identified as the dimensions and patterns of urban land consumption the city in Latin America.) -an understanding that is essential if governments are Finally, the project will create a forum for bringing to pursue the most efficient, equitable, and sustainable together the mayors of the dozen outlier cities and the urban development policies and to prepare adequately three cities preparing for urban growth to discuss for urban expansion. measures needed to prepare for the doubling in size of The project has drawn a stratified random sample of developing country cities. 120 cities from the universe of 2,719 world cities with This research effort will provide new quantitative populations in 2000 of more than 100,000, selecting cities measures, new data, and new explanations for variables in nine geographic regions, four city size groups, and four that have not been systematically measured on a global national per capita income groups. This sample was scale over time-information needed to obtain a global drawn from the United Nations Global Urban Observa- perspective on urban expansion and to design a coorditory sample of 335 cities. For each city in the sample the nated strategy for managing urban expansion in develproject will obtain Landsat data and spatially disaggre- oping countries. gated demographic data from the U.S. Geological Sur- Responsibility: ransport and Urban Development Department, vey and the U.S. Census Bureau and other census sources Urban Unit-Robert M. Buckley (rbuckley@worldbank for two recent periods, approximately a decade apart..org). With Shlomo Angel, New York University and Prince- UTsing these data, the project will define a set of mea- ton University; Stephen Sheppard, Williams College; and sures of urban land consumption for all the cities in the Daniel Civco, University of Connecticut. 70 Infrastructure and Urban Development

77 Agriculture and Rural Development Access to Land in Latin America Nicaragua and provided input into land administration and the Caribbean projects in Honduras and Nicaragua and a learning and innovation loan in Mexico. And its findings influenced Many Central American countries have recently liber- a rural diversification project and peace and development alized their agricultural sector, initiated programs to project in Colombia. improve the security of property rights, and eliminated Results were presented at a Latin American workshop restrictions on land transactions-all in the hope of organized by the Mexican secretary of agricultural reform improving the functioning of land and credit markets and and the World Bank, an international conference in increasing access to land by the poor. This research Mexico (November 2002), and national dissemination project investigates whether the reforms have fulfilled workshops in Mexico (March 2003), Nicaragua (May these expectations-and if not, why not. The research 2003), and Colombia (October 2003). A Central Ameriis based on econometric analysis of panel data from can workshop in Nicaragua is under preparation, in household surveys in Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and collaboration with the European Union and U.S. Agency Nicaragua. for International Development. Results for Mexico show that its ejido reforms have Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Develimproved the performance of land markets, leading to opment-klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank greater allocative efficiency. The reforms have also had.org). With Bradford L. Barham and Michael R. a major noneconomic impact by clearing up legal disputes Carter, University of Wisconsin at Madison; and Juan and eliminating one of the main sources of political Sebastian Chamorro, Office of the President, Nicaragua. patronage in the countryside. In Nicaragua policy reform and land titling have sig- Reports nificantly increased productivity (land values for titled Barham, Bradford L., Michael R. Carter, and Klaus Deininger plots are 30 percent higher than those for untitled ones) "Making Land Marker Liberalization Work for the Welfare of and somewhat improved the functioning of land markets. the Rural Poor in Honduras." University of Wisconsin, Depart- But because of the financial crisis, the reforms did not ment of Applied Economics, Madison. lead to a perceptible increase in access to credit. More- Carter, Michael R., and Juan Sebastian Chamorro. "Impacto de over, markets remain very thin, implying that reaping the proyectos de legalizaci6n de la propiedad en Nicaragua: Informe full benefits of the reforms will require complementary final." measures (such as in financial infrastructure and Deininger, Klaus, and Juan Sebastian Chamorro. Forthcoming. marketing). "Investment and Equity Effects of Land Regularization: The In Honduras reforms of land markets have improved Case of Nicaragua." AgriculturalEconomics. their functioning. But because of credit market imper- Deininger, Klaus, Fabrizio Bresciani, and Isabel Lavadenz. "Mexfections, the impact of these reforms has been less than ico's Second Agrarian Reform: Implementation and Impact." would have been expected. That suggests that addi- Deininger, Klaus, Eduardo Zegarra, and Isabel Lavadenz tional measures may be called for-such as measures to "Determinants and Impacts of Rural Land Market Activity: Eviimprove the functioning of credit markets and thereby dence from Nicaragua." World Development 31(8): help rural households take advantage of the opportuni- Ointo, Pedro, Klaus Deininger. and Benjamin Davis "Land ties opened by the liberalization of land markets. Market Liberalization and the Access to Land by the Rural Poor: The research has formed the basis for World Bank eco- Panel Data Evidence of the Impact of the Mexican Ejido nomic and sector work in Colombia, Mexico, and Reform." 71

78 Commodity Marketing Systems Over the past dozen years the governments of many developing countries have fundamentally changed policies designed to support and manage commodity markets. Through case studies and literature reviews, this research examines such reforms to extract the main lessons. The research finds that approaches designed to stabilize and support prices were unsustainable and gave way, often during periods of economic crisis. When institutions charged with stabilizing prices were dismantled, care often was not given to finding ways to provide appropriate regulation and market support. Moreover, the range of market reforms and the consequences of reform differed across countries and especially across commodity subsectors. The research contributes to the debate about how best to manage commodity markets. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development-Donald Larson Reports Akiyama, Takamasa, John Baffes, Donald Larson, and Panos Varangis '"Commodity NMarket Reform in Africa: Some Recent Experience." Economic Systems 27(1): eds Commodity MarketReforms:Lessonsof Tw,oDerades. Washington, D).C.: World Bank. Inequality and Investment: Land Tenure and Soil Degradation in the Indus Basin Landownership in Pakistan is extremely unequal, leading to very active land leasing markets. This study investigates the incentive problems that arise from land leasing arrangements, analyzing the impact of the structure of land lease contracts on productivity and on investment in soil quality. The analysis uses data from the 2001 Pakistan Rural Household Survey, which includes detailed information on input use, plot-level production, and the terms of tenancy contracts. To examine the incentive to invest in land, the analysis focuses on the application of farmyard manure, which has productivity effects over multiple seasons. The analysis finds that investment is lower on leased plots than on owned plots cultivated by the same household. This result survives even after taking into account potential adverse selection in the leasing market. The study also finds that greater security of tenure increases investment on leased plots. Differences in tenure secu- rity across tenants are largely the result of differences in landlords' willingness to commit to long-term contracts. The findings suggest that there is scope for effective tenancy reform in rural Pakistan. Legislation binding landlords to long-term contracts with their tenants, to the extent that it could be enforced, would encourage the ten- ants to undertake certain kinds of investment. The project has contributed to the World Bank's poverty assessment in Pakistan and to a factor market study being undertaken in the South Asia Region's Rural Development Sector Unit. The findings were presented in late 2002 in seminars at the University of North Carolina, George Washington University, and Cornell University; at the Winter Econo- metric Society Meeting in Washington, D.C.; and at the South Asia Econometric Society Meeting in Lahore. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development-Hanan Jacoby (hjacoby@worldbank.org). Report Jacoby, Hanan, and Ghazala Nlansuri "Incomplete Contracts and Investment: A Study of Land Tenancy in Pakistan." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Land Institutions and Land Policy This study followed on a March 2001 consultative meet- ing on land policy issues attended by representatives of a wide range of donor and civil society organizations. Participants reached broad consensus on a number of general land policy issues but also highlighted the need for more background work and for incorporating regional experience in particular areas. The study summarized existing operational and research experience relating to land policy, conducted new research in areas where significant gaps existed (partic- ularly on land taxation, the operation of land markets, and the impact of land conflict), and held regional work- 72 Agriculture and Rural Development

79 shops to obtain feedback, disseminate results, and dis- case studies prepared for regional workshops in a special cuss how these can inform policy. The findings are issue of its journal Land Reform. And a set of the best reported in a World Bank Policy Research Report, Land papers presented at the Eastern European workshop is Policiesfor GrowZth and Povertv Reduction (Klaus Deininger, being published in a special issue of the Quarterlv Jour- New York: Oxford University Press, 2003). nal of International Agriculture. Key findings include these: Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- * Land policy has important repercussions not only for opment-klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank equity and efficiency but also for governance and fiscal.org) and Gershon Feder. sustainability of local governments. * Tenurc security is crucial for achieving higher levels Reports of investment, and there are a wide range of mechanisms, Deininger, Klaus "Agrarian Reforms in Eastern European besides traditional titling, that can help promote it. Countries: Lessons from International Experience." Journal of * Outcomes from land sales markets depend more on InternationalDevelopment 14(7): the functioning of financial markets "Land Markets in Developing and 'l'ransition * Land rental markets contribute to both greater Economies: Impact of Liberalization and Implications for equity and greater efficiency. Future Reform." American Journal of Agrirultural Economics * Governments can contribute to improved land use 85(5): through a wide range of policy measures, but they need Land Policiesfor Growth and Poverty Reduction. World to introduce such measures in the context of a coherent Bank Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford Universitv overall policy. Press. (Also available at The preparation process for the report prompted the land-policy/.) European Union to create a land task force and to pre- Deininger, Klaus, and Raffaella Castagnini "Incidence and pare a set of land policy guidelines that draw heavily on Impact of Land Conflict in tlganda." Policy Research WVorkthe report. Through this task force, the European Union ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, is supporting in-country dissemination of the report in Washington, D.C. an effort to improve the integration of land issues into Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing jin "Land Rental Nlarkets country strategies and Poverty Reduction Strategy as an Alternative to Government Reallocation? Equity and Papers. Efficiency Considerations in the Chinese Land Tenure System." The report forms the basis for a four-day distance Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developlearning course organized by the World Bank Institute ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. and the Development Economics Senior Vice Presi "The Impact of Property Rights on Households' dency with support from other donors. This course, Investment, Risk Coping, and Policy Preferences in China." adapted to local conditions, has been conducted in South Economic Development and Cultural Change 51(4): 34 i -67. Asia, three times in Africa (in East Africa, southern "LandSalesand Rental Marketsin'fransition: Evidence Africa, and West Africa), and in Central America. from Rural Vietnam." Policy Research Working Paper World Launched in Paris in June 2003, the report was pre- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. sented at several national and regional events relating to Deininger, Klaus. and Paul NMpuga "Land Nlarkets in land policy issues, including in Colombia, Mali, the Uganda: Incidence, Impact, and Evolution OverTime." World Philippincs, Spain, and Switzerland (for heads of East- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ern European land registries). Deininger, Klaus, Songqing Jin. Berhanu Adcnew, Samucl Gebre- It is expected that Chinese, French, Portuguese, Selassie. and Berhanu Nega "Tenure Security and Land- Russian, and Spanish translations of the report will also Related Investment: Evidence from Ethiopia." Policy Research be published. In addition, the Food and Agriculture Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Organization has agreed to publish 15 of the country Group, Washington, D.C. Agritulture and Rural Development 73

80 Land Rental Markets in Eastern Europe The World Bank Policy Research Report Land Policiesfor Growth and Poverty Reduction (Klaus Deininger, New York: Oxford University Press, 2003) has sparked interest in many countries in addressing land policy issues. While Eastern European countries have made significant (though variable) progress in establishing more secure land rights, formal and informal barriers to the operation of land rental markets persist in many of them. This research aims to characterize such barriers, assess their impact, and identify policies that can help to overcome them. The research is based on empirical analysis of data from farm household surveys conducted by the University of Leuven under the auspices of the European Union's Phare project between 1998 and 2002, complemented by data from Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys for the same countries. The analysis finds that policy choices relating to privatization continue to affect the functioning of rural and urban land markets, though other factors also are increasingly playing a role. The functioning of markets, in turn, affects the productivity of land use and household welfare. The research is expected to improve the understanding of the role of land and other factor markets in the region and to lead to ideas that may be incorporated into policies and projects. It will also generate a survey module that will help better capture land policy issues in these countries. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Development-Klaus Deininger (kdeininger@worldbank.org). With Sara Savastano, University of Rome; and Alexander Sarris, University of Athens and Food and Agriculture Organization. Report Deininger, Klaus, Alexander Sarris, and Sara Savastano. Forthcoming. "Rural Land Markets in Transition: Evidence from Six Eastern European Countries." Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture. Macro-Micro Linkages of Irrigation Water Management Where irrigated agriculture remains an important sector in terms of resource use, policy interventions aimed at improving water use in the sector will have direct and indirect effects on the rest of the economy. Irrigation policy reform has direct effects on the farm firm, these effects have an impact on the broader economy, and the adjustments in the economy then feed back to affect the farm firm. This study traces direct and indirect effects of policy reform. The analytic framework relies in part on a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model aligned with a built-in farm-level model. Using these components, the study has developed a tractable empirical model of the macro-micro linkage and applied it to data from Morocco to test the influence of microeconomic on macroeco- nomic policies-and the influence of macroeconomic on microeconomic policies. The study has conducted two sets of policy analysis to show how the macro-micro linkage works. The first set centers on macroeconomic policies, with trade reform illustrating the links. The second set deals with micro- economic policies, with water reform chosen to illustrate the links. Trade reform removing protection causes all endoge- nous variables to change, shifting the economy to a new equilibrium-and benefiting the country as a whole. The trade reform affects the shadow prices of water (that is, the productivity of the allocation of water), lowering the shadow price of water allocated to protected crops. The direct effect of water reform at the farm level in Morocco was to reduce the water allocated to soft wheat production by 36.6 percent, and that for sugarcane production by 3.7 percent. The water released was then allocated to other crops. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- opment-ariel Dinar (adinar@worldbank.org). 74 Agriculture and Rural Development

81 Mauritania: Technology Fosters Tradition- mining rural nonfarm growth. The provision of infra- Preserving the Environment through structure is perhaps the most important lever available Grassroots Law Making to policymakers aiming to promote the rural nonfarm economy. But while many studies in the literature doc- This research project will investigate, through fieldwork ument a correlation between nonfarm activities and in Mauritania, whether rural farmers and herders in mar- access to infrastructure, there is much less certainty ginally productive areas follow strong traditional rules on about the causal relationship between provision of infraland use in lieu of modern state regulations. The analytic structure and subsequent nonfarm growth. Moreover, approach will rely on self-assessment and documentation much remains to be learned about the relative importance -on the sand, on paper, on a drawing board, and in an of different types of infrastructure-such as roads, power, electronic form conveyable by the Internet-of land and telecommunications. rights and use patterns in the area the villagers and A second part of the research seeks to shed further herders consider "theirs." empirical light on underexplored questions about the role The findings are expected to influence the reform of of education and credit: How do education and rural land use processes, the making of law, and the under- credit influence nonfarm entrepreneurial behavior standing of local empowerment. 'rhe findings should also in rural areas? And how might education and credit policontribute to World Bank work in designing community- cies be devised to effectively promote nonfarm rural driven development approaches and legal reform initia- investment? tives. And they are expected to help empower local The last part of the research examines the complex populations to enforce their traditional land use rights and wide-ranging mechanisms through which the nonagainst the interests of the central government and donors. farm sector can influence poverty and inequality. It is Results will be disseminated locally, regionally, nation- quite possible, for example, for the poor to benefit more ally, and internationally. In 2004 presentations are planned indirectly-through links between the nonfarm and farm at the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Conference sectors-than directly-through employment in nonin Alexandria, Egypt, and the conference of the Inter- farm activities. While empirical work tracing these links national Association for the Study of Common Property is ongoing, more research is needed to provide further in Oaxaca, Mexico. detail and to document the diversity of experience. Details on the project can be found on the Web at The studies cover a range of developing countrieshttp:// Bangladesh, Guatemala, India, Morocco, Nicaragua, and Responsibility: Legal Department, Africa-Hans W. Peru. Several of the studies involve new data collection, Wabnitz (hwabnitz@worldbank.org). With Lars Soeftes- and several others involve combining multiple data sources tad, Supras Consulting, Norway; and Christian in new ways. As a result, findings remain tentative. Contardo. Responsibility: Development Research Group. Poverty Team-Peter Lanjouw (planjouw@worldbank.org) and Nonfarm Rural Development Yoko Kijima; Human Development Network, Social Protection Team-Renos Vakis; and World Bank Insti- This project comprises a series of studies on key ques- tute, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management tions relating to the nonfarm economy that are not yet Division-Shahidur Khandker. With Leonardo Corral and fully resolved or have not yet received adequate atten- Paul Winters, Inter-American Development Bank; Javier tion in the literature. It gives particular attention to the Escobal, Group for the Analysis of Development knowledge gaps directly relevant to the design of policy (GRADE), Peru; Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford UIniverinterventions. sity; Andrew Foster, Brown University; Thomas Reardon, A big part of the work is aimed at contributing to the Michigan State University; and Mark Rosenzweig, empirical evidence on the role of infrastructure in deter- Harvard UJniversity. Agriculture and Rural Development 75

82 Reports The rcsearch provides a deeper understanding of the Escobal, Javier "Enhancing Incomc Opportunities for the ways in which central policy initiatives affect welfare Rural Poor: 'Ihe Benefits of Rural Roads." when key aspects of policy implementation are decen- Foster, Andrew, and NMark Rosenzweig "Constructing a tralized. It also provides evidence on the performance of Consistent Village-Level 'lime-series on Infrastructure, Agri- nonmarket allocation, offering lessons for nonmarket cultural, and Rural Nonagricultural Groxvth: India, " privatization schemes. Lanjouw, Peter, and Renos Vakis "New Options for the Rural Results have been presented at a World Bank semi- Poor? Insights from the Nonagricultural Sector in Guatemala." nar (April 2001), a conference on Political Economy and Development at Yale tiniversitv (2001), a seminar at the Nonmarket Land Allocation in Vietnam National Economics University and Institute of Social Studies in Hanoi (February 2002), the Northeastern This project studied the political economy of land allo- Universities D)evelopmcnt Consortium Conference at cation during major policy reforms in Vietnam-reforms Williams Collcge (October 2002). the M\ acarthur Founthat effectively privatized most farmland in the country. dation Conference on Inequalitv at the MIassachusetts It aimed to improve the understanding of how the cen- Institute of ''echnology (2003), and a DELTA-INRA tral government's initial intervention was reflected in what seminar in Paris (October 2003). Presentations have also happened on the ground, recognizing that this also been made at Boston LTniversity, Mlichigan State depended on the objectives and constraints facing other Utniversity, the LTniversity of Nlassachusetts, and the political actors. It also aimed to identify the welfare Ulniversity of Mlichigan. effects at the household level, both initially and over time, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Serrecognizing that land allocation is endogenous. vices-dominiclue van de Walle (dvandewalle@ The study developed a theoretical model and worldbank.org), and PovertyTeam-MIartin Ravallion. tested it using regression analysis. It also developed a dynamic model incorporating a distribution dependence Reports in the growth process arising from credit market Ravallion, Miartin, and 1)ominliquc van dc Wallc "Breaking failures. tlp the Collective Farm: eclfarc Outcomes of \ictnam's Nlas- The research found that the initial assignment of six-c Land lrivatization." PolicN Rcscarch N7orkinglapcr2710. land use rights in Vietnam achieved a more equitable WTorld Bank, f)cvelopment Rescarch Group, WN/ashington, outcome than would be expected from a consumption- D.C. efficient allocation, entailing an equity-efficiency trade "Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian 'Itransition." off that favored the poorest households. It found no lpolicv Rcscarch WVorking Paper World Bank, I)evelopevidence of widespread local capture. 'This, together mcnt Rescarch Group. WVashington, D.C. with favorable initial conditions-primarily an equitable "Land Allocation in \Victnam's Agrarian 'Iransition: distribution of education-explains the overall equi- Part I-Brcaking l-p the Collcctivc Farms." Working Paper table outcomes at decollectivization. EWP03/03. Institutc for liscal Studies. Centre for the Evalu- After decollectivization, land reallocations responded ation of Development Policies, London. positively but slowly to the inefficiencies of the initial "Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian ''ransition: land allocation. In the aggregate about a third of the Part 2-Introduicing a Land Niarkct." Working Paper EW10O3/04. initial gap between the actual and the efficient allocation Instituite for Fiscal Studies. C.entre for the Evaluation of Dezvelwas eliminated within five years. The slowness of the opmcnt Policies, London. adjustment appears to be inherent to the workings of the. Forthcoming. "Breaking ltp the Collective Farm: Welfare market process in Vietnam rather than duc to counter- OLutcomes of Vietnam's Mlassi c l.and lprivatization." EIoaomvailing nonmarket forces. Indeed, such forces tend to aid ics of ir'insiftion. adjustments toward greater efficiency. 76 Agriculture and Rural Development

83 Sending Farmers Back to School: to farmer, and the limited uptake of formal training An Econometric Evaluation of the responsibilities by farmer-trainers, the programs' cost Farmer Field School Extension Approach per trained farmer (including overhead costs and technical assistance) was very high-in the range of $45 or Many agricultural training and extension programs seek more. Such costs raise the risk of financial unsustainabilitv to enhance farmers' knowledge of improved cultivation if farmer field school training is to be applied on a national practices and their ability to make ecology-conscious scale. choices. One training approach attracting attention and Results suggest that as long as the costs arc as high as support in recent years is the farmer field school. This in the past decade, the economic v iability of the farmer approach emphasizes participatory methods and under- field school approach is questionablc. 'I'lhesc restilts have standing of the plant-pest ecology. One of its key aims important implications, since the approach is gaining is to reduce chemical pesticide use by promoting inte- popularity with external donors and the World Bank has grated pest management. But the approach is costly, and funded a number of farmcr field school activities. 'T'he there is merit in evaluating its effectiveness. study indicates that the current dcsign of such activities This research used three country studies to investi- could be ineffective in conveying and diffusing knowlgate the effectiveness of farmer field schools in improv- edge of integrated crop and pest management on a large ing the knowledge of farmers, boosting yields, and scale. NMoreover, the approach is likely to be fiscally reducing pesticide use. It also assessed the fiscal unsustainable. Thus launching numerous small pilot sustainability and economic viability of the approach. projects, as is widely done, is an ineffective use of scarce For Indonesia household panel data were available for external funds, since the pilot projects arc unlikely to be 1991 and 1999, allowing an econometric analysis using scaled up to national programs and the lessons from the a difference-in-differences approach. For the Philip- pilots are unlikely to be applicable to larger-scale projects. pines and Peru only cross-sectional household data (for Nlodifications are needed that retain somc of the pos ) were available. But because the Philippine itive features of farmcr field school training (such as its sample was drawn from an area where the farmer field participatory nature) while increasing the likclihood of school program had bcen operating for some years, recall farmer-to-farmer diffusion and reducing the costs. questions were administered, providing insights into Prioritizing the curriculum, simplifying the knowledge changes over time. In Peru, where a pilot school had just content, and reducing the nlmber of training scssions been implemented, a control sample was established could cut the cost, improve the transfer of information. using propensity scores, and impacts were simulated and allow greater coverage of the farming population. using pretraining differentials among farmers with Findings have been presented at a joint WN'orld different levels of knowledge. Bank-International Food Policy Research InstitUte wvork- All threc country studies showed that trained farmers' shop on extension approaches in WN'ashington, D.C. knowledge of improved farming practices increased. But (November 2002), a seminar at the 1l niversity of Caliresults from Indonesia and the Philippines showed that fornia at Berkeley (Mlarch 2003), a Wl'orld B1ank seminar knowledge did not diffuse from trained farmers to other (June 2003), a conference of the International Associamembers of their community, apparently because the tion of Agricultural Economists in DLurban, South Africa information is complex and not amenable to diffusion (August 2003), a seminar at the University of Florida at through informal communication. The study in Indone- Gainesville (October 2003), and a seminar at the Intersia concluded that there were no significant effects on national Nlaize and Wheat Improvement Center yield and pesticide use attributable to the farmer field (CINIMYT) in Mexico (October 2003). school. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- Analysis in Indonesia and the Philippines concluded opment-gershon Feder (gfeder@vorldbank.org); WVorld that given the limited diffusion of knowledge from farmer Bank Institute, Evaluation Group-Jaime Quizon; and Agriculture and Rural Development 77

84 South Asia Region, New Delhi Office-Rinku Murgai. nism for providing low-cost, effective risk management for With Agnes Rola, University of the Philippines at Los coping with weather events. This type of insurance avoids Banios; Oscar Ortiz, International Potato Center, Lima, most of the moral hazard and adverse selection problems Peru; Alain de Janvry, Erin Godtland, and Elizabeth that plague crop insurance programs. And it can potentially Sadoulet, University of California at Berkeley; and Hania lower lending risks for rural financial institutions. Rahma. Another part of the research develops basic information on climate, bringing together information from Reports ground weather stations and satellite data. A third part Anderson, Jock R., and Gershon Feder. Forthcoming. "Agricultural incorporates information on climate in econometric analy- Extension: Good Intentions and Harsh Realities." lworld Bank ses of productivity and technology choices. Research Observer. The study finds that when long time series of weather Feder, Gershon, Rinku Murgai, and Jaime Quizon "Send- data are available, most technical issues in writing insuring Farmers Back to School: The Impact of Farmer Field ance contracts covering weather-related risks can be solved. Schools in Indonesia." Review of Agricultural Economics 26(1): More difficult is a lack of institutions that back insurance markets generally. The study also finds that weather data - "The Acquisition and Diffusion of Knowledge: The have been undervalued in many developing countries. Case of Pest Management Training in Farmer Field Schools, Such data are collected and often saved, but are less often Indonesia." organized and maintained for research. Satellite informa- Godtland, Erin, Elisabeth Sadoulet, Alain de Janvry, Rinku Mur- tion can be used in limited ways. Evidence shows that gai, and Oscar Ortiz. "Testing the Impact of Farmer Field climate information is an important determinant of pro- Schools on Knowledge: An Empirical Study of Potato Farmers ductivity differences and technology choice. in the Peruvian Andes." The research results have been discussed at workshops Quizon, Jaime, Gershon Feder, and Rinku Murgai "Fiscal in Washington, D.C., and in developing countries. Results Sustainability of Agricultural Extension: The Case of the for Ecuador appear in the 2003 poverty assessment for Farmer Field School Extension Approach." Journal of Interna- that country. tional Agricultural and Extension Education 8(1): Responsibility: Development Research Group, Rural Devel- Rola, Agnes, S. Jamias, and Jaime Quizon "Do Farmer opment-donald F. Larson (dlarson@worldbank.org); Field School Graduates Retain and Share What They Learn? Agricultural and Rural Development Department- An Investigation in Iloilo, Philippines." JournalofInternational Panos Varangis; and Latin America and the Caribbean Agricultural and Extension Education 9(1): Region, Rural Development Family-Paul Siegel. With Jerry R. Skees, University of Kentucky. Weather-Based Index Insurance Reports Rural people in developing countries must often cope Larson, Donald F., and Frank Plessmann "Do Farmers with weather events that have a catastrophic impact on Choose to Be Inefficient? Evidence from Bicol, Philippines." agricultural production and rural incomes. This research Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developproject explores the relationships between climate, risk, ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. and productivity-related choices in developing coun- Skees, Jerry R., Panos Varangis, Donald F Larson, and Paul Siegel. tries with the aim of contributing to the development of "Can Financial Nlarkets Be TIapped to Help Poor Peobetter policies and instruments for managing such plecopewith WeatherRisks?" PolicyResearch WorkingPaper weather-related risks World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, One part of the research uses case studies in Ethiopia, D.C. (Also forthcoming in Stefan Dercon, cd., Insurance against Mexico, Morocco, Nicaragua, and Tunisia to assess the Poverty, Helsinki: World Institute for Development Economfeasibility of area-based index insurance as a mecha- ics Research.) 78 Agriculture and Rural Development

85 Macroeconomics and Growth China's Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability: A Computable Equilibrium Model of Overlapping Generations China's public debt has risen rapidly in recent years. Yet no study has used a rigorous model to analyze the country's fiscal sustainability. This research investigates China's long-run fiscal sustainability by developing and simulating a computable equilibrium model of overlapping generations. Introduced by Paul Samuelson in 1958, this widely used model has a solid microeconomic foundation and is particularly useful in dealing with problems involving intergenerational redistribution. The research considers the sustainability of deficits by examining the change in the ratio of fiscal debt to GDP and the effects of deficit policies on capital accumulation, per capita output, and social welfare. It conducts several policy experiments: permanent and temporary increases in debt-financed government spending and permanent and temporary changes in tax rates (for value added, labor income, and capital income taxes). Results show that in a closed economy the spendingdriven government debt will cause private investment and capital stock to decline in both the short and the long run, labor supply to increase in the short run but decrease in the long run, output to rise in the short run but fall in the long run, and welfare to increase for some older generations but decline for young generations. In an open economy the spending-driven government debt will cause private investment and capital stock to decline in both the short and the long run with all debt financing methods except labor income taxation, labor supply to increase in the short and long run but decrease in the medium run, output to rise in the short and long run but fall in the medium run, and welfare to increase for some older generations but decline for young generations. The results suggest that the expansionary fiscal policy is less detrimental in an open economy than in a closed one. And they show that capital taxation is the most inefficient method for financing government debt because it reduces output more than the other methods. Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division-Yan Wang (ywang2@ worldbank.org). With Shuanglin Lin, University of Nebraska; and Fan Zhai, Development Research Center, State Council of China. Report Lin, Shuanglin, Yan Wang, and Fan Zhai "China's Expan- sionary Fiscal Policy in a Computable Overlapping Generations NModel." World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. The Impact of Fiscal Arrangements on Private Sector Development in the Russian Federation In modern federations fiscal federalism is meant to serve two roles. First, local control over revenue collection is meant to provide a check on the capacity of central authorities to arbitrarily tax local capital. Second, retention of taxes raised locally is meant to establish incentives for subnational authorities to foster economic growth as a way of promoting local tax bases. In the Russian Fed- eration, however, fiscally autonomous regions have often resisted market-oriented reforms, the enactment of rules protecting private property, and the dismantling of price controls and barriers to trade. Do fiscal arrangements in Russia distort the incentives of local and regional gov- ernments to support private sector development? This study tests the hypothesis that fiscal incentives of the Russian regions are an important determinant of regional economic performance. Moreover, it seeks to understand the conditions under which fiscal autonomy prompts regional growth and recovery-and the condi- tions under which it has adverse economic effects. It posits that the presence of unearned income streams, particularly revenues from natural resource production or from budgetary transfers from the central government, 79

86 has turned regions dependent on these income sources This research is investigating these issues. It first estiinto rentier regions. As a result, governments in these mates the size of physical capital subsidies in a few counregions have used local control over revenues and expen- tries, then examines the relationship between these ditures to shelter certain firms (natural resource pro- subsidies and the allocation of public and private investducers or loss-making enterprises) from market forces. ment in physical, human, and natural capital. The research Using new fiscal data from 80 Russian regions for focuses on such countries as Brazil, Chile, and India , the study tests this central hypothesis in both The countries studied have experienced differing single- and simultaneous-equation specifications. The growth rates, varying improvements in human capital, and results indicate that tax retention (as a proxy for fiscal a serious deterioration in natural capital. Some have had autonomy) has had a positive effect on the cumulative a decline in net total wealth per capita, and 9 of 12 counoutput recovery of regions since the break-up of the tries in Latin America a decline in total net wealth. Soviet Union. But it also finds that this effect decreases Argentina, Brazil, and Chile experienced negative growth as rentable income streams to regions increase. in human and environmental assets in The Findings have been presented at a World Bank imbalance between subsidization of physical capital and seminar. deterioration of human and natural capital is an issue of Responsibility: Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and huge importance, with implications for fiscal deficits Financial Sectors Development Unit-Itzhak Goldberg and national debt. (igoldberg@worldbank.org). The research is expected to aid the World Bank's policy dialogue in many countries and help reshape the Report development strategy toward more equitable and Desai, Raj M., Lev M. Freinkman, and Itzhak Goldberg "Fis- sustainable growth. It is also expected to facilitate a shift cal Federalism and Regional Growth: Evidence from the Rus- from the Washington Consensus toward a broader set of sian Federation in the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper policies for better shared development World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and Financial Sectors Development Unit, Washington, D.C. Economic Management Division-Yan Wang (ywang2@ worldbank.org); and Latin America and the Caribbean Investment Patterns and the Quality of Growth Region, Brasilia Office-Vinod Thomas. With Ram6n E. L6pez, University of Maryland; Nalin Kishor; Ashoka Earlier research has suggested that long-run growth Guha, Georgetown UJniversity; Milwida M. Guevara; depends not only on the speed of asset accumulation but and Jisoon Lee, Seoul National University. also on the "blend" of at least three key assets: physical capital, human capital, and natural capital. Some asset Reports accumulation blends make significant long-run eco- Gucvara, Nlilwida NI "Capital Subsidies and the Quality of nomic growth with equity possible; others are likely to Growth: The Case of the Philippines." World Bank, World lead to long-run economic stagnation along with social Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. inequity and environmental destruction. Economies can Guha, Ashoka "The Quality of Growth: An Assessment achieve the "right blend" if savings are allocated to and an Illustrative Case Study of India." World Bank, World investment in the asset among the three that has the high- Bank Institute, Washington. D.C. est social rate of return (net of investment cost) so that Lee, Jisoon "Financial Policies and the Quality of Growth in the long run the net social rates of return to investment in South Korea." World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, in each asset are equalized. But market imperfections pre- D.C. vent this efficient allocation. In some cases they have led L6pez, Ram6n E "Growth, Social Equity and Natural Capto the subsidization of physical capital and under- ital: The Role of Public Subsidies in Latin America." World investment in human and natural capital. Bank, World Bank Institute. Washington, D.C. 80 Matroeconomics and Growth

87 L6pez, Ram6n E., Gustavo Anriquez, and Sumeet Gulati economic instability. The design of intergovernmental "The Dynamics of tunbalanced and Sustainable Growth." resource transfers and the incentives it creates for World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. subnational fiscal policy thus need scrutiny. How can intergovernmental transfers be designed so as to avoid Low Returns to Reforms in the Global Economy unintended or perverse effects on state fiscal behavior? What is the role of political affiliations in determining This research is aimed at contributing to the ongoing transfers and subnational fiscal behavior? Are these effort to increase development effectiveness and under- political effects powerful enough to constrain the stand why economies perform poorly after a round of effectiveness of rules-based designs? reforms such as trade liberalization. In the first phase the This study addressed these policy questions by examresearch is exploring cross-sectional data to find statis- ining the fiscal policies of state governments in India, tical regularities explaining why countries are "trapped" where a rules-based system of transfers has been in place in low-growth equilibriums despite greater trade flows. for the past 50 years. During that period the political envi- The analytic approach involves first building a database ronment has changed drastically, with India moving from that makes it possible to cross-reference the character- one political party dominating the national and state istics of countries that experience low returns to reform, legislatures to unstable coalition politics at the center and then using both cross-sectional and panel regressions to different regional parties controlling the states. The test hypotheses on the reasons for these low returns. resulting political and fiscal variation across states and over The sample is corrected for time lags. time allows rigorous empirical research. The study Early findings show that precisely measuring developed empirically testable hypotheses from the economic reform variables is key in determining the theoretical literature on public finance and political significance of regression coefficients. The outcome of economy, then tested them using regression analysis on reform is not the same as policy action. a panel data set of political and fiscal indicators, compiled In a later phase the study will investigate low returns from different published sources, for 15 major states of to reform through country studies. India in A workshop to discuss the research with academics and The results show that electoral party politics matter policymakers is planned for October for the regional distribution of public resources and for Responsibility: Development Economics, Office of the Senior fiscal discipline in a federation-and in a way not pre- Vice President and Chief Economist-Luiz Pereira da viously addressed in the literature on fiscal federalism. Silva (Ipereiradasilva@worldbank.org). When a state government is controlled by the political party that also controls the national government, the Report state receives higher than average federal transfers and de Castro, Alexandre Samy, Ian Goldin, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva. has a higher than average fiscal deficit. This pattern is "Relative Returns to Policy Reform: Evidence from Con- consistent with a model in which decisionmaking authortrolled Cross-Country Regressions." Policy Research Working ity lies with political parties that aim to maximize their Paper WVorld Bank, Development Economics, Office of the representation in the national legislature. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Contrary to conventional wisdom in India and existing models of political bargaining between the center and The Political Economy of Fiscal provincial governments, the study finds no statistical Decentralization evidence that the design of intergovernmental transfers provides perverse incentives to state governments to Fiscal decentralization raises an important policy run higher deficits. concern-a concern that it might create "soft" budget The findings suggest that formal rules regulating fisconstraints at subnational levels and consequent macro- cal relations in federations will have limited impact if Macroeconomics ond Growth 81

88 deficits are determined by the nature of electoral tion expands, local authorities need to provide more sercompetition between political parties. The study finds vices with fewer resources from the central government. evidence, however, that delegating certain fiscal Subnational borrowing, leveraging on reliable cash flows policies-such as the setting of public debt ceilings-to and prudent fiscal management, may be an alternative an independent agency makes a difference for the way to fund such investments, especially when the usedistribution of national resource transfers across regional ful life of the service is long (such as schools, roads, and governments. By contrasting the impact of partisan public utilities) and an adequate legal framework is in politics on two types of fiscal transfers to Indian states, place to ensure fiscal and financial stability. it finds that while the transfers determined by political Drawing on the Global Program on Subnational agents are indeed distributed to serve political objectives, Capital Market Development managed by the World having an independent agency distribute the transfers Bank in , along with recent experiences in curbs political influence and is consistent with promot- accessing subnational credit markets, this study examing equity. ined subnational governments as borrowers and the array The results will be presented at a seminar in New of credit markets in which they may operate. Case stud- Delhi for scholars and policymakers working in India. ies documented the recent experience of 18 countries in They also have been disseminated within the World developing markets for subnational borrowers, assessing Bank through seminar presentations; used in a World what has worked and what has not and identifying the Bank Institute course on fiscal decentralization and inter- reasons for the successes and failures. The case studies governmental transfers for World Bank staff; and used in offer lessons about fostering responsible credit market a World Bank Institute learning event for a visiting access within a framework of fiscal and financial delegation from the Finance Commission of India, the discipline. agency with primary responsibility for determining inter- The research was aimed at assisting local governgovernmental transfers in the country. ments in working as strategic partners in developing The panel data used in the analysis are available on and strengthening the capital markets in emerging request. economies. The results provide a simple "blueprint" of Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- the major flaws to be avoided and the conditions that need vices-stuti Khemani (skhemani@worldbank.org). to be present for successful entry into subnational credit markets. Reports Dissemination plans include seminars organized in Khemani, Stuti "Federal Politics and Budget Deficits: client countries in collaboration with the World Bank Evidence from the States of India." Policy Research Working Institute. Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Urban Cluster Sector Unit-Mila Freire (mfreire@ "Partisan Politics and Intergovernmental Transfers worldbank.org) and Miguel Valadez. With John Petersen, in India." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, George Mason University; and Marcela Huertas, Metrop- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. olis Consulting. Subnational Capital Markets in Theory and Practice With increasing decentralization, local governments face a growing need to access capital markets. As urbaniza- Report Freire, Mila, and John Petersen, with Marcela Huertas and Miguel Valadez, eds Subnational Capital Markets in Developing Countries: From Theory to Practice. New York: Oxford University Press. 82 Macroeconomics and Growth

89 International Economics Accessing International Equity Africa Trade Standards Project Markets This research project examined "behind the border" This study analyzes which firms participate in interna- barriers to trade in Africa, investigating the links between tional markets by issuing depository receipts, cross- standards, regulations, and export success through case listing, or raising new capital in international financial studies in five countries-kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, centers. Through econometric analysis of data for a large South Africa, and Uganda. With a view to promoting sample of firms from 53 countries-capturing both efforts to strengthen the region's export capacity, firms that internationalize and those that list only domes- the project also examined the opportunities and chaltically-the study compares firms across countries, within lenges facing African firms and farmers in meeting countries, and over time to address three questions: standards. * What are the characteristics of firms that become The research identified standards-related policy, infrainternational? structure, and capacity needs in the region, including * What country and firm characteristics determine public and private sector capabilities at the national and the probability of becoming international? sectoral levels. The work also reviewed laws, regula- * And how are firm-specific characteristics affected by tions, institutional capacities, and programs relating to the internationalization? developing, implementing, and enforcing standards. The study finds that firm characteristics-size, growth, Local research teams, working with the World Bank valuation, performance, and foreign activity-are and the African Economic Research Consortium, carried important determinants of accessing international equity out the country and industry assessments, an arrangement markets for firms from industrial countries, but less helping to strengthen research capacity in the region. The so for firms from developing countries. Evidence shows teams drew on existing studies, used firm and industry that, conditional on the country already being interna- surveys to generate new primary data, and incorporated tionalized, firms from developing countries use cross- results from a World Bank survey on technical barriers listing to bond to higher legal and other standards. to trade (this survey included firms active in testing and Listing abroad is associated with an increase in sales certification or in major food, agricultural, and light growth, higher valuation and return on assets, and lower manufacturing industries). In addition, the researchers leverage, though these effects diminish following gathered input from key private and public sector listing. stakeholders through national workshops, focus group Responsibility: Financial Sector Vice Presidency, Financial sessions, and one-on-one interviews. And they obtained Sector Strategy and Policy-Daniela Klingebiel (dklinge- key documents from regulatory officials to gain insights biel@worldbank.org); and Development Research Group, into standard setting processes. Macroeconomics and Growth-Sergio Schmukler. With The case studies led to common findings, including Stijn Claessens, luniversity of Amsterdam. these: * African exporters face myriad problems relating to Report standards, including a lack of timely and accurate infor- Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio Schmukler. mation, a need to simultaneously meet multiple standards "Accessing International Equity Mlarkets: Which Firms from and regulations, costly and difficult testing and verifica- Which Countries Go Abroad?" tion procedures, and rapidly changing requirements in overseas markets. 83

90 * For small and medium-size farmers in Africa, stan- Results have been shared through workshops, condards impose cost structures and investment require- sultations with key stakeholders and decisionmakers in ments that makc it difficult to access industrial country each of the five countries, and dissemination activities markets. relating to the report produced by the project. In * African firms and farmers are gcnerally "standard addition, seminars for govcrnment and private scctor takers" (as with horticulture in Kenya and fisheries prod- reprcsentatives have been held in Midrand, South Africa ucts in Utganda), which can result in excessive restrictions (June 10, 2003); at the European Policy Center in and lower product prices. Brussels (July 31, 2003); at the U.K. Department for * Foreign lobbying groups and associations can pose International Development in London (August 4, 2003); challenges for African firms. In 2001, for example, human in Accra, Ghana (November 11, 2003); in Nairobi, Kenya rights associations, arguing that Del Monte's operations (November 14,2003); and in Washington, D.C. (Decemin Kenya failed to apply adequate worker safety and ber 11,2003). Seminars have also been conducted at the environmental health standards, launched a boycott of World Bank. Del Nionte's products in supermarkets in the European The project team has provided analytic and advisory Union. support to World Bank operations, including the Africa * Costs of compliance can be prohibitive for African Trade Facilitation Project, Trade Integration Studies in governments, and foreign direct investment is not Kenya, and the Uganda Private Sector Export Competforthcoming. itiveness Project II. * African countries-even middle-income countries Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-John like South Africa-have little capacity to undertake food S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Victor 0. Abisafety risk assessments, creating potential avenues for ola; and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management trade restrictive practices. Network, International Trade Department-Steve Jaf- * Sanitary and phytosanitary standards and environ- fee. With Andre Jooste, Erik Kruger, and Flip Kotz6, Cenmental requirements can bc moving targets, often becom- ter for International Agricultural Mlarketing and ing more stringent once producers achieve compliance. Development, South Africa; J. Adeboye Adeyemo and M\loreover, awareness of food safety and sanitary Abiodun S. Bankole, UTniversity of Ibadan, Nigeria; and phvtosanitary standards is generally low, and the Gabriela Rebello da Silva, Instituto Nacional de Normechanisms for consultations between national author- maliza,co e Qualidade, Mlozambique; Lara da Silva Carities in this arca and other stakeholders appear to be rilho, UJniversidade Eduardo Mondlane, Mozambique; inade(quate. Hezron Omare Nyangito, Kenya Institute for Public * In many African countries essential facilities such Policy Research and Analysis; Tom Olielo, Kenya Bureau as testing laboratorics are inadequately staffed and of Standards; David NMagwaro, NMinistry of Trade and scientific equipment is outdated. Nloreover, data are not Industry, Kenya; Nichodemus Rudaheranwa and Fred systematically collcctcd or stored, and local certification Matovu, Makerere University, Uganda; and Willy Musinagencics lack an international reputation. And this guzi, Uganda National Bureau of Standards. The African situation is worsening in many countries as public Economic Research Consortium contributed staff time spcnding declines. to the research. * Failure to raise standards to international levels will have enormous costs in lost exports for Africa. Report Based on thcse and other findings, the project identi- Wilson, John S., and Victor Abiola, cds Standards and fied areas needing priority attention and highlighted Global Trade: A loi-e for Africa. Washington, D.C].: World kcy steps for governments, private organizations, and inter- Bank. national development agencies to strengthen capacity in standards monitoring, certification, and enforcement. 84 Internalononl Economics

91 Does Regionalism Help or Hinder Multilateralism? 'T'his researclh project will examine the implications of continuing regional trade integration for multilateral trade liberalization. It will investigate how discriminatory liberalization has affected countries' attitudes toward multilatcral liberalization. It xvill explore differences between customs unions and free trade areas, the effi- ciency of current World Trade Organization policies on the formation of preferential trade arrangements. and the question is important because countries with more develempirical adequalcy of existing theoretical analyses of the relationship between regionalism and multilateralism. It may also explore the implications of the research results for the welfare conse(luences of regionalism. The study, by improving the understanding of the inter- action between multilateral and regional integration, should help policymakers better manage trade liberalization. 'l'o estimate how the formation of regional trade transactions in a market divided by its market capitalarrangements has affected multilateral tariff reduction, the study is compiling preferential and most-favored- nation tariffs by industry over a number of years for countries in these trade arrangements. Preliminary results data, the sttidy finds that as more firms become interfor Latin America indicate that regionalism has not been a stumbling block to liberalization. The data, including detailed information on the extent of trade concessionis and phase-in schedules of prefer- The Effects of American Depository Receipt Trading on Local Markets This project analyzes how the internationalization of capital markets has affected the domestic stock markets of developing countries. In particular, it addresses this question: How do firms that participate in international stock markets affect the trading activity and liquidity of the firms remaining in the domestic market? The oped capital markets tend to grow faster and because capital markets help to mobilize savings throughout the economy. To study the effects of internationalization, the project assembled trading and liquidity information on more than 3,000 firms across 55 emerging market economies for the years To measure trading activity, the study uses turnover (the value of a firm's ization). 'I'o measure liquidity, it uses an illiquidity index (the ratio of a stock's absolute returns to its value traded). Through regression analysis using annual firm-level national, this lowers the turnover of domestic firms. And it finds that as internationalization rises, the liquidity of domestic firms falls. But what are the mechanisms through which internationalization hurts the trading ential trade agreements, will be made available on the activity and liquidity of domestic firms? Web at brip.,1,1111 iriiv.i' research/trade/. 'I'he study identifies two channels through which 'I'he project will result in a policy report explaining the results in nontcclhnical terms and several academic papers, with the main paper including a detailed descrip- tion of the data, metlhodolog, and results. Dissemination plans include presentations at the WN'orld 'Irade Organization, the Brazilian Economic Association (ANPEC) and Brazilian Econometric (SBE) (Congress, and the European (;ommission's Directorates General for Development and for External Affairs, and presentations to the group of African, I'acific, and Caribbean countries (in Gihana) and members of the Central ELuropean Free Irade Agreement (in Prague). Responsibility: Devclopment Research Group, 'ltrade-car- oline Louise FreLund (cfreund@worldbank.org). With EmanLel Ornelas, I niversity of (Georgia. internationalization hurts domestic firms: the migration and spillovers channel and the domestic trade diversion channel. Trading migrates to international financial markets, having negative spillover effects on the trading and liquidity of domestic firms in domestic markets. These spillover results indicate that an individual equity's trading activity and liquidity depend importantly on the market's overall activity and liquidity. Moreover, there is trade diversion in domestic markets as trading shifts from domestic to international stocks within the local market. I'he research has provided input into a study on Latin American capital markets and the World Bank's Global De'elopment PFinance (Washington, D.C., various years). Findings have been presented at seminars at the International Economics 85

92 University of Minnesota and the University of Zurich and credit spreads. While global factors still play a greater role at the 2004 annual meeting of the Global Development in foreign direct investment in industrial countries, their Network in New Delhi. They will also be presented at role in developing countries has grown dramatically over a seminar for Latin American policymakers at the Fed- the past 20 years. This development appears to be tightly eral Reserve Bank of Atlanta (jointly organized with the linked to the financial liberalization and opening up of Inter-American Development Bank) and at a Brazilian developing countries in the 1980s and early 1990s. newspaper. Using time-series and cross-country data, the macro- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- economic analysis also examines the effects of the changnomics and Growth-Sergio Schmukler (sschmukler@ ing composition of foreign direct investment in worldbank.org) and Latin America and the Caribbean developing countries over the past decade, when merg- Region, Office of the Chief Economist-Juan Carlos ers and acquisitions have grown in importance relative Gozzi Valdez. With Ross Levine, University of Min- to greenfield investments, particularly in the context of nesota; and Tatiana Brandao Didier, NMassachusetts Insti- privatization programs. It finds that an increase in mergtute of Technology. ers and acquisitions is typically followed by higher greenfield investment-so the conclusion of privatization Report programs need not result in a drop in overall foreign Levine, Ross, and Sergio L. Schmukler "Migration, direct investment. And it finds that the effects of the two Spillovers, and Trade Diversion: The Impact of International- kinds of foreign direct investment on investment and ization on Stock Market Liquidity." Policy Research Working growth are roughly similar qualitatively: both tend to Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- lead domestic investment, and both tend to follow growth. ington, D.C. (Also published as NBER Working Paper 9614, T hese findings suggest that countries' foreign direct Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, investment prospects and macroeconomic benefits are 2003.) not much affected by whether the investments take the form of mergers and acquisitions or new projects. Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Markets, Those prospects depend increasingly on global risk and and Growth return conditions-thus changes in world growth or interest rates can have a powerful effect on foreign direct In recent years foreign direct investment has increasingly investment flows to developing countries. Yet local dominated capital inflows in Latin America, raising new profitability and risk conditions-productivity growth, concerns about its desirability and effects. This study macroeconomic stability, institutional quality-remain examines that recent boom from three perspectives: the robust fundamental attractors of foreign direct investmacroeconomic dimension, the banking system, and ment even in an increasingly globalized financial corporate sector financing. environment. UJsing data on foreign direct investment inflows and A second analysis assesses the impact of foreign bank their determinants for a large number of industrial and entry on lending practices. Analysis of bank-level credit developing countries over the past three decades, the data for major Latin American economies finds that in macroeconomic analysis assesses the role of global and countries allowing foreign bank participation, small busicotntry-specific factors in attracting foreign direct invest- nesses are more likely to obtain credit from foreign banks ment and looks for systematic differences across world when these have a significant local presence. But small regions. It finds robust evidence that the trends in foreign banks lend more to small and medium-size enterforeign direct investment flows to both industrial and prises than do large ones. Moreover, analysis of firm surdeveloping countries in recent years reflect an increas- vey data from a large number of developing countries ing role of factors affecting global financial markets- shows that foreign bank participation improves firms' world interest rates, world growth, term premiums, and access to credit. The survey results confirm that the 86 International Economics

93 benefits of high levels of foreign bank participation do mergers with global exchanges may be necessary to prenot appear to accrue only to large enterprises. Nonethe- vent an almost sure decline of the local market. This does less, the findings suggest that countries concerned about not mean that there is no role for local exchanges-they foreign banks lending to small businesses should pursue may still play an important part in allowing firms to policies that encourage them to develop a significant access markets for the first time. local presence. The research findings have been disseminated through A third analysis examines the effect of foreign invest- many academic and professional events, including an ment on capital markets. The foreign investment boom invited lecture at Universidad de El Escorial (2001), the in Latin America has been accompanied by delistings of annual meetings of the Latin American and Caribbean stocks and migration from domestic to international Economic Association and the Latin American Econocapital markets. Using individual firm data for a large metric Society (2002), and a major conference jointly number of countries from 1983 to the present, the analy- organized with the Inter-American Development Bank sis investigates the factors responsible for this process and in Washington, D.C. (October 2002). its consequences for both migrating local companies and Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, those remaining in the local markets. Office of the Chief Economist-Luis Serven (Iserven@ The analysis finds that there are a small number of fun- worldbank.org), and Finance Cluster-Susana M. damental factors that affect in a similar way both the Sanchez; Development Research Group, Macroecodevelopment of the local market and the degree to which nomics and Growth-Norman Loayza, Sergio Schmukcountries participate in international markets. As coun- ler, and George R. G. Clarke, and Finance-Maria tries improve their fundamentals, stock exchange Soledad Martinez Peria and Robert Cull; and Pension activity increases, but so does the share of activity Investments Department-Daniela Klingebiel. With taking place abroad. This suggests that the two are com- Rui Albuquerque, University of Rochester; Ross Levine, plementary processes: as better fundamentals allow local University of Minnesota; Cesar Calder6n, Central Bank markets to develop, firms will have a greater tendency of Chile; and Stijn Claessens, University of Amsterdam. to access global exchanges. But there will be limits to the extent to which local market development is associated Reports with greater offshore activity. Migration of a major share Albuquerque, Rui, Norman Loayza, and Luis Serven "World of market capitalization and value traded may have Market Integration rhrough the Lens of Foreign Direct adverse effects on the liquidity of the remaining com- Investors." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, panies. Large-scale migration may also make it more Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. difficult to sustain a fully fledged local stock exchange. Calder6n, Cesar, Norman Loayza, and Luis Serven "Green- These findings suggest that countries need to continue field Foreign Direct Investment and Mergers and Acquisito improve fundamental factors, such as shareholder tions: Feedback and Macroeconomic Effects." Policy Research protection and the quality of local legal systems, to make Working Paper World Bank, Development Research it more attractive for any investor to buy shares and thus Group, Washington, D.C. to make it easier for firms to list and trade in public Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler markets. But countries do not face a choice between "FDI and Stock Market Development: Complements or local and international exchanges: improving funda- Substitutes?" World Bank, Washington, D.C. mentals will lead to more activity, but most of this "ExplainingtheMigrationofStocks from Exchanges activity will go abroad as better fundamentals also accel- in Emerging Economies to International Centers." Policy erate migration. Thus countries will be best off facilitating Research Working Paper World Bank, Development as much as possible their firms' access to liquid interna- Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also published as CEPR tional exchanges-by removing regulatory barriers and Discussion Paper 3301, Centre for Economic Policy Research, harmonizing standards. Moreover, tighter links or even London, 2002.) Internationol Economics 87

94 Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, and Msaria Soledad Nlartinez Peria "Does Foreign Bank Penetration Reducc Access to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking Borrowers." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, Maria Soledad Nlartinez Peria, and Susana NI. Sanchez "Bank Lending to Small Busi- nesses in Latin America: Does Bank Origin NMatter?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Levine, Ross, and Sergio Schmukler Migration, Spil/overs, and Trade Diversion: The Impact of Internationalization on Stock Market Liquiditv. NBER Working Paper Cambridge, Nlass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. Geography, Trade, and Growth This project has two purposes: First, to develop and implement a rigorous methodology to estimate how the elasticity of trade with respect to distance has changed. And second, to distinguish the primary causes for this change. The analytic approach involves using trade growth equations on bilateral trade between 130 countries to estimate how the effect of distance on trade flows has changed over time. It also involves estimating trade growth equations for more than 100 exporters in more than 700 product categories to examine proximity and trade growth within country groupings and industries, so as to develop a better understanding of the changing role of geography in globalization. This approach allows disaggregation of the change in the effect of distance on trade into the sources of the change. UJsing highly disaggregated bilateral trade data, the study decomposes the change in the elasticity of trade with respect to distance into the part due to a shift in the composition of trade and the part due to increasing dis- tance sensitivity among industries. It finds that adjust- ment in the composition of trade has had no effect on the change in the elasticity of distance. In contrast, for more than 25 percent of industries, distance has become more important. This implies that the increased distance sensitivity of trade is a result of a change in relative trade costs that affects many industries, rather than a shift to more distance-sensitive products. The analysis shows that the increasing importance of distance can be explained by faster trade growth within regions over the past 20 years. The regional effect is robust and is not a function of a distance-interval effect, trade preferences, borders, or the sharing of a common language. The project will result in a policy report explaining the results in nontechnical terms and detailing their implications for feasible gains from trade liberalization in different locations. It will also produce several academic papers exploring questions on the importance of biased technological change and the implications of the results for regional trade agreements. Findings have been presented at the World Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, the University of Delaware, the Empirical Investigations in International Trade Conference, and the American Economic Association meetings in January Future dissemination plans, recognizingthe implications of the effects of distance on trade for unilateral, regional, and multilateral liberaliza- tion, center on institutions dealing with these matters: the World Trade Organization, the European Union, the Regional Integration Network in Latin America, and members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Caroline Louise Freund (cfreund@worldbank.org). With David Hummels, Purdue University; and Nlatias Berth- elon, Pontificia Universidad Cat6lica de Valparaiso, Chile. Reports Berthelon, Matias, and Caroline Louise Freund. Forthcoming. "On the Conservation of Distance in International Trade." Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C.. "Regional Borders Nlatter." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Freund, Caroline Louise, and David Hummels. "Why Hasn't Distance t)ied?" World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Intellectual Property Rights and U.S. Multinationals In multilateral trade negotiations a significant point of contention between developing and industrial countries 88 International Economics

95 involves the global standards for intellectual property This study provides direct input into World Bank rights required under the Agreement on Trade-Related advisory work relating to questions about intellectual Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). Many property rights reforms and technology transfer. developing country policymakers continue to believe Findings have been presented in seminars at Harvard that the mandated strengthening of patent and other Business School, Stanford University, the University of intellectual property rights systems now under way will Michigan, Columbia University, Yale University, the work against their national economic interests, transfer- Summer Institute of the National Bureau of Economic ring rents to multinational corporate patentholders head- Research, the Academy of International Business quartered in the world's most advanced countries, Conference (Monterey, California), Hitotsubashi especially the United States. Advocates of strong intel- University (Japan), Yokohama National University lectual property rights counter that strengthening such (Japan), and the Development Research Group's trade rights will induce more innovation worldwide-and thus series at the World Bank. more rapid economic growth-and accelerate the trans- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Tradefer of technology from the industrial to the developing Carsten Fink With Lee G. world, ensuring a relatively equal distribution of gains Branstetter and Raymond Fisman, Columbia Business from this policy change. School and National Bureau of Economic Research; and This study investigates these issues by looking at C. Fritz Foley, UJniversity of NMichigan. how multinational enterprises respond to different kinds of patcnt reform in different countries. The analysis Report uses firm-level data on exports, licensing, affiliate sales, Branstetter, Lee G., Raymond Fisman, and C. Fritz Foley. Forthand patenting abroad from the survey of U.S. multi- coming. "Do Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Increase national activity by the U.S. Department of Commerce's International Technology Transfer? Empirical Evidence from Bureau of Economic Analysis. tt.s. Firm-Level Panel Data." Policy Research Working l'aper. The empirical results thus far show that U.S. multi- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. nationals do respond to changes in intellectual property rights regimes abroad. In the wake of legal reforms International Technology Diffusion: strengthening patent rights, royalty payments from over- Impact of Trade and Regional Integration seas affiliates to U.S. parent companies with large patent portfolios increase substantially, even when the analysis This research extended work relating to trade-related controls for changes in the sales of U.S. affiliates. These technology diffusion in several new directions: Southfindings are consistent with either an increase in the South technology diffusion, the dynamics of regional volume of technology being transferred or an increase in integration, and the effect of the North American Free the degree to which U.S. multinationals are able to Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on lexico. The study invesextract higher rents from technologies already deployed tigated several questions: in these countries. But subsidiary evidence on affiliates' * How is technological knowledge obtained from the research and development spending and foreign patent- North further diffused in the South through trade ing in the countries that reformed intellectual property between developing countries? rights systems considerably strengthens the interpretation * How does the effect of foreign research and develthat at least part of the measured increase in technology opment (R&D) in the South and the North vary with the licensing reflects a real increase in the deployment of R&D intensity of industries? new technology to foreign affiliates in those countries. If * What are the implications of different trade policies further research substantiates these results, this may help for industry-specific productivity? allay some of the concerns of developing countries about * How do North-South free trade agreements affect implementing the TRIPS Agreement. total factor productivity in the South? And how do the Internotional Economics 89

96 effects on total factor productivity differ between indus- Working Paper World Bank, Development Research tries with high and low R&D intensity? Group, Washington, D.C. The study focused on countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and North America. It Managing Globalization constructed a data set on North-South technology flows and used it to estimate the effect of trade, education, and This project addressed a number of questions relating governance on technology diffusion and growth. These to globalization: What is the impact of globalization on data also allowed the study to examine the effect of poor countries and poor people? Why are some develtrade-related foreign R&D, education, and governance oping countries participating more in international trade on total factor productivity. and capital flows than others? What policies and insti- The results show that openness has a positive effect tutions will enhance the benefits of globalization for on productivity, an important dynamic benefit of trade. poor countries? What is the effect of globalization on such North-South trade raises total factor productivity mainly issues as health, culture, child labor, human rights, and in industries with high R&D intensity, while South- the environment? While the word globalization conveys South trade raises total factor productivity mainly in a range of changes in the way countries and peoples those with low R&D intensity. There is a virtuous cycle interact, the study focused primarily on openness to between education and openness: greater openness foreign trade and investment, with some attention to enhances the effect of education on total factor produc- other forms of openness (migration, the Internet, students tivity in R&D-intensive industries, which increases the abroad). return to education, which then leads to more education, The project both conducted new research, through which further increases total factor productivity. A case studies and statistical analysis, and drew on existsimilar virtuous cycle exists between governance and ing research done at the World Bank and elsewhere. openness. The work yielded three main findings that bear on The research sheds light on developing countries' current policy debates about globalization. optimal choice of partner for regional integration based First, poor countries with around 3 billion people on dynamic criteria. It also adds to the understanding of have broken into the global market for manufactures the effects of discriminatory trade policies. And it will help and services. While 20 years ago most exports from inform the work of the World Trade Organization in the developing countries were primary commodities, now next round of multilateral trade negotiations. manufactures and services predominate. The "new glob- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- alizers" have experienced large-scale poverty reduction. Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org). Second, in one of the most disturbing global trends of the past two decades, countries with around 2 billion Reports people are in danger of becoming marginal to the world Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang "Regional Integration and economy. Incomes in these countries have been falling, Trade-Related Technology Diffusion: The Case of NAFTA." poverty has been rising, and these countries participate World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. less in trade today than they did 20 years ago "Technology Diffusion and Productivity Gains: Third, while opinion polls in diverse countries reveal Mexico and Poland's Trade with CUSFTA and the EU." World an anxiety that economic integration will lead to cultural Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. or institutional homogenization, societies fully integrated "NAFTA, Technology Diffusion, and Productivity into the global economy differ enormously. Among the in Mexico." Cuadernos de Economfia 40(121): richest countries, Denmark, Japan, and the United States Schiff, Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga differ in culture, institutions, social policies, and inequal- "Trade-Related Technology Diffusion and the Dynamics of ity. Among the developing country globalizers, such North-South and South-South Integration." Policy Research countries as China, India, Malaysia, and Mexico have 90 International Economics

97 taken diverse routes toward integration and retain quite The research results have been disseminated in workdistinctive cultures and institutions. Nonetheless, some shops and seminars in all the World Bank's regions and recent developments in the global trading and investment in OECD countries. Findings were published in the regime are pushing countries toward an undesired World Bank Policy Research Report Globalization, Growth, standardization. and Poverty: Building an Inclusive IVorld Econom n (Paul Col- The study highlights many actions that could help lier and David Dollar, New York: Oxford University make globalization more beneficial, with seven particu- Press, 2002), which has been translated into a number of larly important for making globalization work for the languages (Arabic, Chinese, French, Italian, Japanese, poor: Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, and Vietnamese). * Undertaking a "development round" of trade negotiations, NMeasuring the impact of any research is difficult. But focusing first and foremost on market access. since the report was published, the tone of the global- * Improving the investment climate in developing ization debate has changed considerably, from a "pro countries. A sound investment climate means good and con" debate to a more nuanced discussion of the economic governance, control of corruption, well- changes at global and national levels that would make functioning bureaucracies and regulation, contract global economic integration proceed more smoothly and enforcement, and protection of property rights. Also key provide more benefits to developing Countries and the to a good investment climate is transport and telecom- poor people living in them. munications infrastructure providing links to other mar- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Office of the kets within a country and globally. Director-Paul Collier (pcolliercaworldbank.org), Invest- * Improving deliverl of education and health services. ment Climate-Ximena Clark, Mary Hallward- With poor social services, globalization can easily lead to Driemeier, and Sergio Schmukler, Trade-Will Nlartin, mounting inequality within a country and persistence of Infrastructure and Environment-Zmarak Shalizi, and extreme poverty. Poverty Team-Nlichael Woolcock: Development Eco- * Providing social protection to a changing labor market. nomics Senior Vice Presidency, Development Policy- Tailoring social protection to the needs of a changing David Dollar; Africa Technical Families, Poverty economy helps workers adjust to the challenges of a Reduction and Economic Management 2-Christiane more open economy-and enables workers and Kraus; and East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reducentrepreneurs to take more risks and respond to new tion and Economic Management Sector Departmentopportunities. NIartin Rama. With Pablo Zoido-Lobat6n; Richard * Providing more andbettermanaged foreign aid. Evidence Freeman, Harvard University and National Bureau of shows that private investment is slow to respond when Economic Research; Jean 0. Lanjouw, Yale University, low-income countries improve their investment climate Brookings Institution, and National Bureau of Economic and social services. It is precisely in this environment that Research; Peter Lindert, [University of California at large-scale aid can have a great impact on growth and Davis; Remco Oostendorp, Vrije University; John Sutpoverty reduction. ton, London School of Economics; Anthony Venablcs, * Supporting debt relieffor reformers. Reducing the debt London School of Economics and Centre for Economic of the most marginalized countries, especially in Africa, Policy Research; and Jeff Williamson, Harvard llniverwill enable them to participate more in globalization sity. and the benefits it can bring. * Tackling greetnhouse gases. There is broad agreement Report among scientists that human activity is leading to potentially Collier, Paul, and David Dollar Globalization, Growrth, disastrous global warming and that these changes will and Povertv: Building an Inclusive W,lorld EconomyV. World Bank be especially burdensome for poor countries and poor Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford LUniversity people. Press. International Economics 91

98 Preshipment Inspection and Customs Corruption The findings have been presented at several seminars, including 3eme Cycle Romand in Crans-NIontana, First introduced in 1963 in Zaire (now the Democratic Switzerland, and a trade workslhop at the Centre for Republic of Congo) and since then adopted by more than Economic Policy Research in London, and at the World 50 countries, preshipment inspection requires that Bank, George W7ashington University, and the UTniverimports be inspected by a private company at embarka- sitv of Lausanne. Seminar presentations in Nlorocco and tion ports or airports or at the exporters' premises- ltruguay are also planned. rather than just at the importing countrv's customs. It was Responsibility: Dlevelopment Research Group, 1radeoriginally intended to fight the use of overinvoiced NMarcelo Olarreaga (molarreaga@worldbank.org). With imports to evade capital controls. As capital controls Jose Anson and Olivier Cadot, UTniversity of Lausanne. were phased out, attention shifted to fighting evasion of import tariffs and, starting with Indonesia's program in Report 1985, to curbing underinvoicing. This study provides a Anson, Jose. ()tivicr Cadot, an(i Niarcelo ()larrcaga "''ariff new approach to evaluating preshipment inspection as Evasion and Customs (Corruption: Docs P'rcshipmcnt Inspeca tool for improving tariff collection and reducing fraud tion 1-cip?" Policy Rcscarch \Working Papcr XVorld Bank. when customs administrations are corrupt. Dcvclopment Rescarch Group, \Vashington. 1).C. This rcsearch attempts to analyze and quantify in a consistent way-taking into account the complex inter- regional and intersectoral links-the impact of China's accession to the World 'T'rade Organization (WTO) on countries in East Asia and largc developing countrics in the rest of the world. '['he analysis uses a modified ver- sion of a global dynamic applied general equilibrium model (GTAP-[)yn) that differs from other models in its detailed coverage of individual East Asian economies and its global coverage featuring the major industrial and developing countries in the rest of the world. 'l'he model is solved to determine the endogenous changes in output and trade floxvs resulting from the proposed trade policy changes. Results show that China will be the biggest benefi- ciary of its accession to the W'FO. The industrial and newly industrialized economies in East Asia will be the next biggest bencficiaries, but their benefits will be small relative to the size of their economies and to the The study uses a simple information production framework to study the effect that introducing preshipment inspection may have on incentives to bribe and to accept bribes. The basic idea is that customs must spend costly resources assessing the value of shipments and that the outcomc of their effort is stochastic-that is, greater effort only reduces the likelihood of errors. In this context preshipment inspection provides additional information on shipment value. In a perfect world this information would only be used by governmcnts to control fraud. Alternatively, as the model highlights, if government authorities fail to use the information through audits and reconciliation, it simply generates information rents for corrupt customs officers that they will share with importers through bribery arrangements. The study tests this hypothesis using trade data, providing nonparametric evidence for 16 developing countries. It then tests the hypothesis using parametric techniques in three of these countries (because of data constraints). Theoretically, introducing preshipment inspection has an ambiguous effect on the level of customs fraud. This is confirmed by the nonparametric evidence for the The Regional Impact of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization 16 countries in the sample, where ambiguous effects are vigorous growth projected in the region ovcr the next 10 found. The parametric estimates suggest that preship- years. By contrast, developing countries in East Asia arc ment inspection reduced fraud in the Philippines, expected to incur small declines in real GDP and welincreased it in Argentina, and had no significant effect fare as a result of China's accession. 'T'he main reason is in Indonesia. that with the elimination of quottas on Chinese tcxtile and 92 Internotional Economics

99 apparel exports to industrial countries, China will become Regional Integration and Development a formildable competitor in areas where these countries have comparative advantage. With most countries belonging to at least one regional With accession to the WTO China will increase its integration arrangement and many considering joining demand for petrochemicals. electronics, machinery, and or forming new ones, it was deemed important that the e(ltiipmcnt from Japan and the newly industrialized World Bank undertake a research project on the topic to economies-and for farm, timber, and energy products help advise countries contemplating regional trade liband other manufactures from East Asian developing eralization. This project examined issues relevant for countries. New foreign investment is likely to flow into regional integration arrangements in general. It analyzed these expanding sectors. The overall impact on foreign the political benefits from regional integration in terms investment is likely to be positive for the newly indus- of security and democracy as well as conditions for failtrialized economies, but negative for the less developed ure in these areas. It examined the dynamic effects of East Asian countries as a result of the contraction of regional integration through foreign direct investment, their textile and apparel sector. As China becomes a location choices, technology diffusion, and growth. And more efficient supplier of services or a more efficient it examined the effects of different types of regional producer of high-end manufactures, its comparative integration arrangements-south-south and Northadvantage will shift into higher-end products. That will South-in the areas of politics, trade policy, foreign direct be good news for poor developing economies in East Asia, investment, credibility, deep integration, technology, but it mav mean greater competition in global markets and growth. for the newly industrialized economies. The research used a variety of methodologies, depend- Findings have been disseminated to World Bank staff ing on the questions examined, including computable and client countries through policy notes and presenta- general equilibrium models, theoretical models, and tions at the Fourth Asia Development Forum, an East econometric analysis. Asia and Pacific Region workshop on trade and poverty The main findings are as follows: in Tokyo, and seminars in East Asia. Key findings were * Regional integration arrangements are created to also presented at conferences on global economic attain political benefits (such as security or democracy) modeling in 'I'he Hague and Istanbul. or as the result of political economy forces (pressure Responsibility: Povertv Reduction and Economic Nlanage- groups). ment Network, Economic Policy Division-Elena * Regional integration arrangements can improve lanchovichina (eianchovichina@worldbank.org). With security and governance if these are part of the initial Terric Walmslev, Purdue University and Sheffield motivation, but they can worsen security otherwise. University. * North-South regional integration arrangements are more beneficial than South-South ones (NMercosur and Reports other regional integration arrangements with middlelanchovichina, Elena, and Terrie Walmslev "The Impact of income countries may not fit the profile of South-South China's Wit') Accession on East Asia." Policy Rcsearch Work- arrangements). ing l'aper Wo'rld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic * To minimize the risks of harmful trade diversion and Nlanagcment Network, Economic Policyv ivision. NVashington. of transfer of revenues to partner countries, member D.C. countries should lower their most-favored-nation tariffs lanchovichina. Elena, Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput, and MI. Zhao. and liberalize unilaterally when they join regional inte "Rcgional Impact of China's WTl'O) Accession." In Kathie gration arrangements. Krumm and Homi Kharas. eds.. Fast Asia Integrates.- Al rade r1'he research has been brought together in a book Poljic) Agenda for Shared Growth. Washington, D.C.: World (\I ju.ri,e Schiff and L. Alan WVinters, RegionalIntegration Bank. and Development, New York: Oxford UJniversity Press, Internotional Economics 93

100 2003), intended for trade specialists and analysts, that cov- Affects Cameroon's Economy: General Equilibrium Estimates." ers the topics in depth, providing the analytic framework, Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developcase studies, empirical work, and background data. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Designed to serve as a tool for teaching and technical Blomstrom, Magnus, and Ari Kokko "Competition Policy advice, the book has been presented in developing and in Customs Unions: Theory and an Example from U.S. History." transition economies at conferences, to research institu- Pennsylvania State University, State College. tions, and to policy researchers and analysts working on "How Foreign Investment Affects Host Countries." these issues. It has been or is being translated into PolicyResearchWorkingPaperl745.WorldBank,International Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian, and Spanish. Economics Department, Washington, D.C. The findings have also been widely shared through "Regional Integration and Foreign Direct Investtrade seminars and dissemination missions to such ment: A Conceptual Framework and Three Cases." Policy organizations as Mercosur, the Regional Integration Research Working Paper World Bank, International Network, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Economics Department, Washington, D.C. and Development, the European Commission, and the Blomstrom, Magnus, Costas Syropoulos, and L. Alan Winters. Central Bank of Chile "Deepening of Regional Integration and Multilateral Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Mau- Trade Agreements." CEPR Discussion Paper Centre for rice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and Bernard Hoek- Economic Policy Research, London. man. With L. Alan Winters, University of Sussex; Soamiely Bond, Eric W "Transportation Infrastructure Investments Andriamananjara, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative; and Regional Trade Liberalization." Policy Research Working Dani Ben-David, Tel Aviv University; Magnus Blom- Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washstrom, University of Stockholm; Eric Bond, Pennsylvania ington, D.C. State University; Won Chang; D. de Rosa, ADR Interna "Using Tariff Indices to Evaluate Preferential Tradtional; Valerie de Bonis, Sapienza University, Rome; ing Arrangements: An Application to Chile." Policy Research Raquel Fernandez, New York University; Anju Gupta; J. Working Paper World Bank, International Economics Hayden; Bartlomiej Kaminski, University of Maryland; Ari Department, Washington, D.C. Kokko, Stockholm School of Economics; Patrick Messer- de Bonis, Valeria "Regional Integration and Commodity Tax lin; Marcelo Olarreaga, World Trade Organization; J. F. Harmonization." Policy Research Working Paper World Ruhashyankiko; Isidro Soloaga; and Anthony Venables and Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Diego Puga, London School of Economics "Regional Integration and Factor Income Taxation." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Devel- Reports opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Amjadi, Azita, and L. Alan Winters "Transport Costs and Fernandez, Raquel, and Jonathan Portes "Returns to Region- 'Natural' Integration in Mercosur." Policy Research Working alism: An Evaluation of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Paper World Bank, International Economics Depart- Trade Agreements." Policy Research Working Paper ment, Washington, D.C. World Bank, International Economics Department, Washing- Amjadi, Azita, L. Alan Winters, and Alexander Yeats ton, D.C. (Also published in lworldbank EconomicReview 12[2]: "Transport Costs and Economic Integration in the Americas." , 1998.) Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 131(3). Galal, Ahmed, and Bernard Hoekman. eds Regional Partners Andriamananjara, Soamiely, and Maurice Schiff "Regional in Global Markets: Limits and Possibilities of the Euro-Med Initia- Groupings among Microstates." Policy Research Working Paper tive. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Gupta, Anju, and Maurice Schiff "Outsiders and Regional D.C. Trade Agreements among Small Countries." Policy Research Bakoup, Ferdinand, and David Tarr "How Integration into Working Paper World Bank, International Economics the Central African Economic and Monetary Community Department, Washington, D.C. 94 International Economics

101 Harrison, Glenn, Thomas Rutherford, and David Tarr Hoekman, Bernard, Denise Konan, and Keith Maskus "Increased Competition and Completion of the Market in the "Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement between Egypt European Union: Static and Steady State Effects." Journal of and the United States." In Ahmed Galal and Robert Z. Economic Integration 11(3): Lawrence, eds., Building Bridges:An Egypt-U.S. Free TradeAgree "Economic Implications for Turkey of a Customs ment. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. Union with the European Union." European Economic Review Kaminski, Bartlomiej "Impediments to Establishing Eco- 41(3-5): nomic Foundations for a Viable State of Bosnia and Herzegovina: "Trade Policy Options for Chile: A Quantitative Issues and Policies." World Bank, International Economics Evaluation." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Department, Washington, D.C. International Economics Department, Washington, D.C "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Hoekman, Bernard "Trading Blocs and the Trading System: Policies in Poland's Accession to the European Union." Back- The Services Dimension." Journalof EconomicIntegration 10(1): ground paper to World Bank, "Poland: Strategies and Policy Options on the Road to European Union Membership." World "The WTO, the EU, and the Arab World: Trade Pol- Bank, International Economics Department, Washington, D.C. icy Priorities and Pitfalls." In Nemat Shafik, ed., Prospectsfor "Foreign Trade: Performance, Institutions, and Poli- Middle Eastern and North African Economies: From Boom to Bust cies." In R. Staar, ed., Challenges to Democracy in Poland. New and Back? New York: St. Martin's. York: St. Martin's "Preferential Trade Agreements." Brookings Trade "Foreign Trade Policy and Institutions: Getting Forum Ready for Accession." Greater Europe, Natolin Review 1(1) "Free Trade Agreements in the Mediterranean: A "Poland's Transition from the Perspective of Per- Regional Path towards Liberalization?" Journal of North African formance in EU Markets." CommunistEconomies and Economic Studies 3(2). Transformation 10(2). Hoekman, Bernard, and Simeon Djankov "The European Majd, Nader, and L. Alan Winters. "EU-Egyptian Association Union's Mediterranean Free Trade Initiative." WorldEconomy Agreement." World Bank, International Economics Department, 19(4): Washington, D.C "Intra-Industry Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, Martin, Will. "Assessing the Implications for Lebanon of Free and the Reorientation of Eastern European Exports." Policy Trade with the European Union." World Bank, Development Research Working Paper World Bank, International Research Group, Washington, D.C. Economics Department, Washington, D.C. Maskus, Keith E., and Denise Eby Konan "Trade Liberal "Determinants of the Export Structure of Central ization in Egypt." Review ofdevelopmenteconomics 1(3): and Eastern European Countries." WorldBank EconomicReview Michalopoulos, Constantine, and David Tarr "The 11(3): Economics of Customs Unions in the Commonwealth of "Effective Protection and Investment Incentives in Independent States." Post-SovietGeographyandEconomics38(3): Egypt and Jordan: Implications of Free Trade with Europe." World Development 25: Olarreaga, Marcelo, and Isidro Soloaga "Endogenous Tar "Towards a Free Trade Agreement with the Euro- iff Formation: The Case of Mercosur." World Bank Economic pean Union: Issues and Policy Options for Egypt." In Ahmed Review 12(2): Galal and Bernard Hoekman, eds., Regional Partners in Global Padoan, Pier Carlo "Technology Accumulation and Diffu- Markets: Limits and Possibilities of the Euro-Med Initiative. sion: Is There a Regional Dimension?" Policy Research Work- London: Centre for Economic Policy Research. ing Paper World Bank, International Economics Hoekman, Bernard, and Maurice Schiff "Regional Integra- Department, Washington, D.C. tion and Trade Policy in the Middle East and North Africa." Puga, Diego, and Anthony Venables "Trading Arrange- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, ments and Industrial Development." Policy Research Working D.C. Paper World Bank, International Economics Depart- International Economics 95

102 ment, Washington, D.C. (Also published in WVorld Bank Regional Integration and Development. New York: Economic Review 12[2]: , 1998.) Oxford tuniversity Press. Rutherford, Thomas F, and David Tarr "Morocco's Free Stephenson, Sherry "Standards and Conformity Trade Agreement with the EUJ: A Quantitative Assessment." Assessment as Nontariff Barriers to 'rrade." Policy Research Economic Modelling 14: Working Paper World Bank, D)evelopment Research "Regional Trading Arrangements for Chile: Do the Group, Washington, D.C. Results Differ with a Dynamic Model?" Paper presented at the Vamvakidis, Athanasios "Regional Integration and ASSA meetings in New Orleans, January. Economic Growth." IWtorld Bank Economic Review 12(2): "Regional Trading Arrangements: The Implica tions for Chilean Economic Growth." Paper presented at Winters, L. Alan "Integration europeenne et bien-etrc Coloquio Academico de las Americas, Costa Rica, March economique dans le reste du monde." Economie internationale : Schiff, NMaurice "Small Is Beautiful: Preferential Trade "Regionalism versus Multilatcralism." Policy Agreements and the Impact of Country Size, Market Share, and Research Working Paper World Bank, International Smuggling." Journal of Economic Integration 12: Economics Department, Washington, D.C. (Also published "Will the Real 'Natural Trading Partner' Please in Daniel Cohen, Anthony Venables, Andre Sapir, and Stand Up?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Richard Baldwin, eds., Mfarket Integration, Regionalism, and Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. the Global Economy, Cambridge: Cambridge I Tniversitv Press, "Regional Integration and Development in Small 1999.) States." In T K. Bhaumik, ed., DohaDevelopmentAgenda:A Global "Assessing Regional 'rrade Arrangements." Paper View. London: Penguin Books. presented at the Annual World Bank Conference on Devel- Schiff, NMaurice, and Won Chang "Mlarket Presence, opment in Latin America and the Caribbean, Montevideo, Contestability, and the Terms-of-Trade Effects of Regional Uruguay, June. Integration." Journal of International Economics 60(1): "Experiencias y lecci6nes de la integraci6n europea." In Las Americas: Integraci6n econmica en perspectiva. Washington, Schiff, Maurice, and C. Sapelli, eds Chile en el NAFTA: D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank. Acuerdos de libre comercio versus liberalizaci6n unilateral. Santiago, "Lebanon's Euro-Mediterranean Agreement: Chile, and San Francisco: Centro International para el Possible Dynamic Benefits." InW. Shahin and K. Shchadi, eds., Desarrollo Econ6mico. Pathwxavs to Integration: I.ebanon and the Euro-illediterranean Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang "NAFTA, Technology Partnership. Bonn: Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Diffusion, and Productivity in Nlexico." Cuadernos de Economfa "Regionalism and the Rest of the World: The 40(121): Irrelevance of the Kemp-Wan Theorem." Oxford Economic Schiff, Maurice, and L. Alan Winters "Regional Integration Papers 49: as Diplomacy." Policy Research Working Paper World "Regionalism and the Rest of the World: Theory and Bank, International Economics Department, Washington, D.C. the Effects of European Integration." Review, of International (Also published in llorldbank Economic Review, 12[2]: , Economics 5(4, suppl.): ) "What Can European Experience 'Feach Develop "Regional Cooperation and the Role of Interna- ing Countries about Intcgration?" llorldkeonomy 20: tional Organizations and Regional Integration." Policy Research Winters, L. Alan, and Won Chang "Regional Integration and Working Paper NVorld Bank, Development Research the Prices of Imports: An Empirical Investigation." Policy Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, International "Regionalism and Development: The Implications Economics Department, Washington, D.C. of World Bank Research for ACP and Latin American Coun- World Bank Trade Blocs. NVorld Bank Policy Research Report. tries." Journal of IVorld Trade 36(3): New York: Oxford ULniversity Press. 96 International Economics

103 Regional Trade Patterns Technology Diffusion and Growth in Latin America: Impact of Trade, Education, and Governance 'Fhis project involves continuing research on regional trade integration and its dynamic implications, based This research, part of the body of work on the effect of on empirical models and econometric analysis. It exam- trade policy on growth, estimated stocks of trade-related ines the effect of regional trade agreements on prices and foreign knowledge and their effect-as well as the effects welfare in member countries, reviews existing regional of education and governance-on total factor productivity. integration policies in the Middle East and North Africa Openness has a positive impact on productivity through and suggests further reforms, and examines trade and the transfer of technology, an important dynamic beneregional integration policies in the African, Caribbean, fit of trade. The research examined this effect empiriand Pacific countries and in Latin American countries. cally for Latin America, including the interaction between Results show that the evolution of patterns of trade, technology diffusion, education, and governance. including distance, is affected by new technologies (such Results show that greater openness and higher levels as just-in-time production), the evolution of transport of education and governance raise total factor productivity. costs (dwell costs relative to distance-related costs), and The findings, expected to inform World Bank operaother factors-and that these factors in turn affect tech- tions, help clarify which factors matter for productivity nology absorption and productivity growth. The results growth and what their relative importance is. provide insights into the evolution of trade patterns and Findings are being disseminated through working productivity growth for developing countries. papers, journal articles, and conference presentations. Results have been presented at the World Bank and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Tradeat seminars and conferences. Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and NMarcelo Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Olarreaga. With Yanling Wang, Carleton Ulniversity. NIlaurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org) and Bernard Hoekman. With Won Chang, U.S. Department of the Reports Treasury; and L. Alan Winters, University of Sussex. Lumenga-Neso, Olivier, Marcelo Olarreaga, and NMaurice Schiff Reports "On 'Indirect' Trade-Related R&D Spillovers." CEPR Discussion Paper Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Hoekman, Bernard, and Maurice Schiff "Regional Integra- Olarreaga, Nlarcelo, Maurice Schiff, and Yanling Wang tion and Trade Policy in the Nliddle East and North Africa." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Schiff, Maurice "Chile's Trade and Regional Integration P'olicy: An Assessment." Wl`orld Econom,y 25(7): "North-South and South-South 'Irade-Related TIechnology Diffusion: An Industry-Level Analysis." CEPR Discussion Paper Centre for Economic Policy Research, London. Schiff, NMaurice, and Yanling Wang "Education, Governance, "Chile's 'I'rade Policy: An Assessment." Working and Trade-Related Technology Diffusion in Latin America." Paper 151. Central Bank of Chile, Santiago. Schiff, Maurice, and Won Chang "Mlarket Presence, Contestabilitv, and the 'IFerms-of-Trade Effects of Regional Integration." Journal of International Economics 60(1): Schiff, NMaurice, and L. Alan Winters "Regional Coopera- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develoption and the Role of International Organizations and Regional World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "On the Quantity and Quality of Knowledge: 'I'he Impact of Openness and Foreign Research and Development on North-North and North-South Technology Spillovers." ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Integration." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Schiff, Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. "Trade-Related Technology Diffusion and the Dynamics of -20(2. "Regionalism and Development: The Implications North-South and South-South Integration." Policy Research of World Bank Research for ACP and Latin American Coun- Working Paper World Bank, Development Research tries." Jouirnal of Wlorld wrade 36(3): Group, Washington, D.C. Iniernotionil Economics 97

104 Trade and Technical Change This research examined the effect of trade and education policies on North-North, North-South, and South- South technology spillovers. The broader objective was to shed light on the dynamic effect of openness and education on growth. The research involved constructing stocks of research and development (R&D) in OECD countries, then using regression analysis to examine how trade affected total factor productivity in developing countries. The results show that openness and higher education increase both technology spillovers and total factor productivity. North-South trade affects productivity mainly in industries with high R&D intensity, while South- South trade affects productivity mainly in those with low R&D intensity. The research has helped clarify the effect of trade as a channel for technology diffusion and provided dynamic arguments for the benefits of openness. The results show the importance of education not only for those obtaining it but also for the economy as a whole, through the additional growth effects. Education enhances the growth effect of openness-and openness enhances the growth effect of education. The results will be disseminated through workshops, conferences, papers, and journal articles. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Maurice Schiff (mschiff@worldbank.org). With Yanling Wang, Carleton University. Report Schiff, Maurice, and Yanling Wang "North-South and South- South Trade-Related Technology Diffusion: An Industry-Level Analysis." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Trade and Trade Policy Data System Developing country policymakers need first-rate, flexible data analysis tools to evaluate offers made in trade negotiations. And the World Bank and its partner institutions need analytic tools to help them summarize the myriad trade data supplied by countries. To help meet these needs, the World Bank's Development Data Group is developing the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), a system for accessing and retrieving trade and tariff data compiled by various international organizations. This project is building into the WITS system the capabilities for trade policy analysis and support to trade negotiators. The work includes identification of users' needs, remote dissemination of portable versions of the software, and training of users in developing countries. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Will Martin (wmartinl@worldbank.org); Development Data Group-Jerzy T. Rozanski; and World Bank Institute, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Divi- sion-marc Bacchetta. Trade Facilitation and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Most developing countries have been undertaking first- generation trade reforms, mainly easing border restric- tions on merchandise trade and liberalizing foreign exchange markets. As they have done so, it has become obvious that their successful integration into the world economy increasingly depends on complex, behind-theborder measures that fall under the heading of trade facilitation. This research project has investigated how capacity building in trade facilitation could increase trade flows among member economies of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and worldwide. Using an econometric approach based on cross-country data on bilateral trade flows between developing and transition economies and OECD countries, the research has analyzed the potential effects on trade of improvements in the efficiency of customs, ports, and institutions. The analysis shows that improving port efficiency has a large and positive effect on trade flows, as does easing regulatory barriers to trade. Improvements in customs and greater use of e-business significantly expand trade, but less so than improvements in ports or regula- tions. Estimates show that if APEC members with below- average indicators in these four areas improved their capacity to half the average for all APEC members, 98 International Economics

105 annual intra-apec trade could increase by $254 billion, Simpler Procedures for World Trade Growth, ljnited Nations or 21 percent. About half the increase would come from Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, May improvements in port efficiency. If the reform took place Wilson, John S., and Yuen Pau Woo "Cutting through Red on a global scale (represented by 75 countries), the gains Tape: New Directions for APEC's Trade Facilitation Agenda." in annual trade would amount to $377 billion. Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Vancouver. Findings have been disseminated through workshops Wilson, John S., Carsten Fink, and Shweta Bagai "Reducand seminars for donor and government officials and ing Trade Costs in a New Era of Security." In World Bank, Global trade and development economists and practitioners, Economic Prospects Washington, D.C. including in Panama City (June 27-29, 2000); in Singa- Wilson, John S., Catherine L. Nlann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki pore (September 13-14, 2000); at the Japan Bank for "Trade Facilitation and Capacity Building: A Global Perspec- International Cooperation (March 5, 2002); and at the tive." Paper presented at the APEC Capacity Building Work- World Trade Organization (July 2, 2003). shop on Measuring Nontariff Barriers, APEC Secretariat, U.S. The project has constructed a database on trade facil- International Trade Commission, and Australia Productivity itation for 75 countries, including APEC members, from Commission, Bangkok, April 10. multiple sources of survey data. The indicators of trade "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: A facilitation were developed to be of immediate use for New Approach to Quantifying the Impact." World Bank policymaking. Economic Review 17(3): The project has provided analytic support for World "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Bank country economic memorandums for Costa Rica, Measuring the Impact." Policy Research Working Paper El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua as World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. well as for a trade facilitation grant to the Conference of "Assessing the Potential Benefit of Trade Facilita- Ministers of Agriculture of West and Central Africa and tion: A Global Perspective." Policy Research Working Paper operational projects relating to trade facilitation and World Bank, Urban Development Department and Develexport competitiveness in Honduras and Peru. It has opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. also fed into World Bank courses on trade facilitation (June Wilson, John S., Catherine Mann, Yuen Pau Woo, Nizar Assanie, and 25, 2003, and March 31, 2004). Inbom Choi "Trade Facilitation: A Development Per- Results from the study are available on the Web at spective in the Asia-Pacific Region." APEC Secretariat, Singapore. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-John Trade Facilitation and Development in East Asia S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Tsunehiro Otsuki. With Denis Sosyura, Vanderbilt University; This study was designed to provide guidance to World Catherine Mann, Institute of International Economics; Bank staff in formulating their policy research agenda and Baishali Majumdar; and Yuen Pau Woo. in advising East Asian policymakers on trade facilitation, an important aspect of the World Trade Organization's Reports (WTO) Doha Development Agenda round of trade talks. Wilson, John S "The Economic Impact of Trade Facilita- The study reviewed the literature and data on trade tion: Development Perspectives in the Asia Pacific." Paper facilitation, comparing performance in East Asian counpresented at the Fourth Asia Development Forum, Seoul, tries with that in comparator countries in other regions. November 3-5. It also reviewed ongoing technical assistance activities "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development." and international collaborative agreements, including Paper presented at a trade training seminar, U.S. Agency for the World Customs Organization and WTO discussions. International Development, Washington, D.C., June And it identified further research needed to answer "Trade-Related Technical Assistance." Paper questions developing countries may have about WTO presented at the International Forum on Trade Facilitation: negotiations on trade facilitation. International Economics 99

106 The study reviewed the activities of 19 agencies and particular reforms and methodology-focused studies organizations to identify key roles of each in promoting developing better measures of the effects of trade trade facilitation. And it identified customs valuation and reforms. management procedures conducive to rapid trade pro- The project sponsored a set of papers, and a panel cessing. The study found that clearance times in West- session on the World Trade Organization's (WTO) ern countries were much faster than those in East Asia, Millennium Round, at the Second Annual Conference in large part because of cumbersome procedures and out- on Global General Economic Modeling (Funen, dated technology used in East Asian developing countries. Denmark, June 1999). The aim was to stimulate think- Among the worst performers for sea cargo were the Rus- ing and inform modelers about the issues posed by the sian Federation, China, India, and Indonesia. Mlillennium Round for developing countries. 'l'he papers, This study, along with other World Bank studies, covering the main sectors of liberalization, introduced contributed to the Bank's decision to launch a new trade several new approaches, including a dynamic approach facilitation lending program. It also helped shape the to assessing trade liberalization and a stochastic protec- Bank's position on trade facilitation issues in the WTO. tion approach to evaluating liberalization offers. The Findings were presented to a high-level conference project has also undertaken several other activities. of experts in Cairo on May 20-21, In addition, Globaltrade modeling. A detailed global modeling exer- World Bank studies incorporating some of the findings cise has provided the main empirical support for proposals were presented to a Pacific Economic Cooperation Coun- on global trade reform. 'T'he results provided the basis for cil conference in Brunei and to audiences in Africa, comparisons of the costs of industrial country protection China, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. with the costs of aid transfers, comparisons that have The study fed into several World Bank analyses, featured prominently in the debates on multilateral trade including those for the World Bank's Global Economic reform. Prospects 2002 (Washington, D.C., 2001) and GlobalEco- Tariff preferences. Applied modeling has provided nomic Prospects 2003 (Washington, D.C., 2002), as well as inadequate treatment of tariff preferences, reducing the the regional study East Asia Integrates: A Trade PolicT accuracy of the results and, often, making them Agenda for Shared Growth (Kathie Krumm and Homi completely misleading. This study introduced data on Kharas, eds., Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2004). protection patterns-including preferences constructed Responsibility: Development Prospects Group-Richard from the tinctad Trade Analysis and Information Newfarmer (rnewfarmer@worldbank.org). With Janet System (TRAINS) data-into the Global 'Trade Tay, Janet Tay Consultants, Singapore. Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The resulting protection data were then compared with those developed Report by the International Trade Centre and Centre Janet 'I'av Consultants "Facilitating Trade: The East Asian d'etudes Prospectives et d'informations Internationales Experience in a Comparative Context." Paper presented at the (CEPII). roundtable Informing the Doha Process: New Trade Research Formula approaches to -nj negotiations. Perhaps the for Developing Countries. Cairo, Nlay greatest successes in trade liberalization under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and in Trade Modeling Project regional trade arrangements have occurred when ncgotiators focused on formulas for reducing trade barriers, This project has aimed to provide quantitative estimates as in the Kennedy and 'Tokyo Rounds, rather than on of the effects of trade and related policy reforms on request-and-offer approaches. The formula approach developing countries, particularly poor people within used in the Uruguay Round agreement on agriculture, these countries. 'IThe work has involved a mix of applied however, which emphasized average cuts in tariffs rathcr studies providing direct estimates of the effects of than cuts in the average tariff, highlighted the need for 1 00 Internationol Economics

107 care in specifving the formula. A study has identified a of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Developing Coonncw approach to tariff cutting formulas that provides tries." Journalof African Economies 10(3): much more flexibility than earlicr approaches, and ana- Fran,ois, Joseph "Stochastic Protection, Policy Bindings, and lyzed its implications for tariff levels in key industrial and Investment." Paper presented at the Sccond Annual Conferdeveloping countrics. ence on Global General Economic Modcling, Panel Session on I,ink bertween trade andpovet?. Another activity is devel- the WTO's Nlillennium Round, Funen, Denmark, jline. oping a large-scale modeling approach to take into account Fran,ois, Joseph, and Will Martin "Formula Approaches for the effects of global trade reform on the welfare of the Nlarket Access Negotiations." 1'orldEconomv7 26(1): poor. Virtually all analyses of global trade reform have pro-. Forthcoming. "Commercial Plolicy, Bindings, and Nlarkct vided estimatcs of its effect only at a national aggregate Access." European Economic Rezuiew. level. TIhis study aims to develop a modeling frame- Hertel, 'rhomas V, and Will Martin "liberalizingagriculturc wvork ablc to provide estimates of the effects of differ- and Manufactures in a Millennium Round: Implications for ent trade reforms on poor people in a wvide range of Developing Countries." World EconomY 23: countries. Ilhe analysis covers 14 countries and incor "Second-Best Linkages and the Gains from Glohal porates key distinctions between short- and long-run Reform of Manufactures 'Irade." Revivr of International effects of trade reform on the poor. 'I'he work has shown Economics 9(2): that the short-run effects of policies such as agricultural Hertel, 'I'homas W., Nlaros Ivanic, Paul Preckel, and John Crantrade reform often differ markedly from the long-run field. Forthcoming. "Poverty Impacts of NMultilateral 'Iradc effects. A clear policy implication is that agricultural Liberalization." ll'orld Bank EconomicReuiew. protection is likely to be much less effective in reduc- Hertel, Thomas NV., Nlaros Ivanic, Paul IPreckel. John Cranfield, ing rural poverty in the long term than in the short term. and Will NMartin "Short- versus Long-Run Implications Quantitative analysis undertaken or underpinned by of Trade Liberalization for lvovertv in Three Developing Counthis project has provided quantitative estimates provid- tries." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(5): ing support for particular reforms, particularly the inclu sion of industrial products in the negotiations. Extensions of the work on tariff preferences were prcsented at a WTrO technical seminar on tariff preferences and theilr itilization on Nlarch 31, And results on the short- and long-run effects of trade reform on Hoekman, Bernard, and Will NMartin, eds De-reloping (oun- tries andthe IW'TO:A Pro -A ctive Agenda. Oxford: Blackw-cll "The New International 'I'rade Agenda and the WTO." Special issue of Review of International Econo,nics (May). pov erty were presented at the summer meetings of the Ingco, Mierlinda, and L. Alan Winters AgricultureandtheVeAw American Agricultural Economics Association in Trade Agenda. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Will Markusen, James R., Thomas F Rutherford, and David 'Tarr Nlartin (xvmartin1@wvorldbank.org) and Bernard Hoek- "Foreign Direct Investment in Services and the Domestic Marman. With WNVarxvick N IcKibbin, Australian National tjni- ket for Expertise." Paper presented at the Second Annual Conversity; Joseph 1Franyois, Erasmus ttniversity; and ference on Global General Economic Modeling, Panel Session 'I'homas W Hertel, Purdue Utniversity. on the WTO's Nlillennium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. Reports Anderson, Kvnm, and Anna Strtut "AgricultuLre and the NV''O: Next Steps." lvaper presented at the Second Annual Con- Economic Modeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Nlillenterence on Global General Economic NModeling, Panel Session on the VT'O's \lillennium Round, l'uncn, Denmark, June. \ndcrson. KIy m., Betina D)imaranan, Joseph Fran,cois, 'I'homas W. 1-ertel, lbernard Ilooekman, andl Will Nlartin "Tlhel Cost NMartin, Will, and Thomas W Hertel "Developing Country Interests in Liberalizing Manufactures Trade." Paper pre- sented at the Second Annual Conference on Global General nium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. Martin, Will, and Nlari Pangestu, eds Options for Global 7rade Refonn:A ticwfromtheasia-parifr. Cambridge: Cambridge IUniversity l'ress. Internotionol Economics 101

108 McKibbin, Warwick "Trade Liberalization in a Dynamic Setting." Paper presented at the Second Annual Conference on Global General Economic Modeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Millennium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. Robinson, Sherman, and Zhi Wang "Capturing the Implications of Services 'Trade Liberalization." Paper presented at the Second Annual Conference on Global General Economic NModeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Millennium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. Warren, Anthony, and C. Findlay "Measuring Impediments to 'Irade in Services." Paper presented at the Second Annual Conference on Global General Economic Modeling, Panel Session on the WTO's Millennium Round, Funen, Denmark, June. Trade Policy and Development This study investigates how product variety in the exports of a country affects aggregate growth in that country through its impact on productivity. The study has constructed product variety indexes, then related the indexes to the GDP of 40 countries in a GDP function framework. The final analysis involves estimating a system of equations with nonlinear cross-equation restrictions. The main data sources are the World Bank's World Development Indicators 2003 (Washington, D.C., 2003) and U.S. customs statistics. The study is still exploring the empirical relationship between product variety in exports and productivity growth. The findings are expected to deepen the understanding of how trade leads to growth in an economy in ways beyond the known channels such as economies of scale or specialization. The project will produce a policy-oriented summary paper reporting its results, to be presented at the 2004 meetings of the American Economic Association in San Diego. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org) and Hiau Looi Kee. With Robert Feenstra, University of California at Davis and National Bureau of Economic Research. Trade Research Relating to the Doha Development Round As the World Trade Organization's (WTO) ministerial meeting in Cancun approached, a growing demand emerged for a better understanding-and for a better quantification-of the likely effect of Doha Development Round proposals on developing countries, particularly low-income countries. This research initiative was intended to help fill that gap and to provide developing countries with negotiation strategies consistent with their development objectives. The initiative launched a series of related analytic and empirical studies, undertaken by World Bank staff in close collaboration with academics in developing and industrial countries. Analytic studies helped in understanding what was at stake, while empirical studies helped in understanding how much was at stake. The research led to the conclusion that a more flex- ible WTO system is needed, one that can accommo- date the specific needs of each member country. A rethinking of WTO's special and differential treatment is crucial. The same is true for market access. There is no area in which developing countries will either all benefit or all lose from a move toward liberal- ization. Measures of the effects of liberalization need to be country specific. But a WTO agreement that would reduce border barriers to trade in agriculture (not nec- essarily subsidies) is likely to benefit developing coun- tries as a group (though Mauritania, for example, would lose given its import and export bundle). In services, bind- ing commitments in mode 4 (allowing people to move temporarily into a country for the purpose of providing services) are likely to benefit many developing countries (such as India). The research has assisted developing countries in identifying their interests in the context of the Doha Development Agenda and exploring the development implications of alternative options for multilateral rules on Doha issues. The main instruments for disseminating results to policymakers were the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects 2003 (Washington, D.C., 2002) and GlobalEconomic Prospects 2004 (Washington, D.C., 2003). These were accompanied by a series of conferences, 102 International Economics

109 seminar presentations, and high-level meetings with Anderson, Kym, Bernard Hoekman, and Anna Strutt "Agripolicymakers in developing and industrial countries. culture and the WTO: Next Steps." Review, of International The research also provided input into several video- Economics 9(2): conferences organized by the World Bank Institute for Anderson, Kym, Betina Dimaranan, Joseph Fran,ois, Thomas W developing country delegations that were to participate Hertel, Bernard Hoekman, and Will Martin "The Cost in the Cancun ministerial meeting. of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Developing Coun- The initiative has created databases that are now pub- tries." Journal of Afncan Economies 10(3): licly available, including databases on bilateral trademark Baffes, John "Cotton Market Setting Policies, Issues, and registration, domestic agricultural support, and export Facts." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, subsidies. The databases are available on request and will Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. be posted on the Web at Baffes, John, and Harry de Gorter "Decoupling Support to Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Agriculture: An Economic Analysis and the Review of Expe- Bernard Hoekman (bhoekman@worldbank.org), Will rience." Paper presented at the Annual World Bank Conference Martin, and David Tarr; and World Bank Institute, on Development Economics, Paris, May Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division Bagwell, Kyle, Petros Mavroidis, and Robert Staiger. Forthcom- -Philip English. With Keith Maskus; Edward Chisanga, ing. The Case for Tradable Remedies in WTO Dispute Settlement. Zambia representative to the World Trade Organization; Moctar Fall, International Federation for Alternative Trade, Senegal; Alan Deardorff, University of Michi- the Doha Round: Preliminary Lessons from Commodiry Studgan; Anirudh Shingal, Simon Evenett, and Savita World Bank Working Paper. Washington, D.C. Beghin, John, and Ataman Aksoy "Agricultural Trade and ies." Paper presented at the Annual World Bank Conference Narasimham, World Trade Institute; Binyam Taddesse on Development Economics, Paris, May and Kishore Gawande, Texas A&M University; Constantine Michalopoulos; Kamal Saggi, Southern Methodist University; L. Alan Winters, University of Sussex; Philip Schuler; Randeep Rathindran, Utsav Kumar, and Oleksandr Shepotylo, University of Mary- land; Robert Staiger, University of Wisconsin; Vlad Manole; Celine Carrere, CERDI-CNRS; Ileana Cristina Neagu; JoAnne Feeney, University of Albany; Krista Lucenti, University of Berne; Yanling Wang, Georgetown Bhattasali, Deepak, Shantong Li, and Will Martin, eds China and the WTO: Accession, Policy Reform, and Poverty Reduction Strategies. New York: Oxford tiniversity Press. Brenton, Paul "Integrating the Least Developed Countries into the World Trading System: The Current Impact of EU Preferences under Everything but Arms." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Eco- nomic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Brenton, Paul, and Takako Ikezuki "WTO Accession. University; Ditry Manakov, Infomost, Moscow; Policy Reform, and Poverty Reduction: An Overview." Grishankov Dmitry Eduardovitch, Center of Insurance Information, Moscow; Sergey Makarevich and Thomas Rutherford, University of Colorado at Boulder; Tamara Novikova, Central Marine Research and Design Institute, Moscow; Nadezhda Ivanova, International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva; Vladimir World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C.. Forthcoming. "The Initial and Potential Impact of Pref- erential Access to the U.S. Market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act." Policy Research Working Paper. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Klimushin, Central Science Research Institute on Telecom- Chaudhuri, Sumanta, Aaditya Mattoo, and Richard Self munication, Moscow; and Copenhagen Economics ApS. Reports Aksoy, Ataman, and John Beghin, eds. Forthcoming. Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries. New York: Oxford University Press. "Moving People to Deliver Services: How Can the Wl'O Help?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Cox, Tom, and Yong Zhu "Assessing World Dairy Markets and Policy Reforms: Implications for Developing Countries." World Bank, Washington, D.C. International Economics 103

110 Diop, Ndiame, John Beghin, and Mirvat Sewadeh "Ground- Hoekman, Bernard, and Petros C. Mavroidis "Economic nut Policies, Global Trade Dynamics, and the Impact of Trade Development, Competition Policy, and the W'T'O." Journal of Liberalization." Policy Research Working Paper World World Trade 37(1): Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Hoekman, Bernard, and Kamal Saggi "Assessing the Case International Trade Group, Washington, D.C. for Extending WTO Disciplines on Investment-Related Evenett, Simon, and Bernard Hoekman "Transparency in Policies." Journal of Economic Integration 15(4): Government Procurement: What Can We Expect from Inter "Trading Market Access for Competition Policy national Trade Agreements?" In Sue Arrowsmith and Martin Enforcement." Policy Research Working Paper NVorld Trybus, eds., Public Procurement: The Continuing Revolution. The Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Hague: Kluwer Law International. Hoekman, Bernard, Philip English, and Aaditya Mattoo, eds Forthcoming. "Government Procurement: Market Access, Development, Trade, and the WTO: A Handbook. Washington, Transparency, and Multilateral Trade Rules." European D.C.: World Bank. Journal of Political Economy. Hoekman, Bernard, Thomas W. Hertel, and Will Mfartin , eds. Forthcoming. The WTO, the Doha Round, and Devel- "Developing Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiaopment. New York: Oxford University Press. tions." World Bank Research Observer 17(1): Finger, J. Nlichael TheDohaAgendaandDevelopment. Manila: Hoekman, Bernard, Keith Maskus, and Kamal Saggi "'l'rans- Asian Development Bank. fer of Technology to Developing Countries: Unilateral and Fink, Carsten, Bernard Hoekman, and Carlos Primo-Braga Multilateral Policy Options." World Bank, Developmcnt "Telecommunications-Related Services: Market Access, Deeper Research Group, Washington, D.C. Integration, and the WTO." In Paolo Guerrieri and Hans- Hoekman, Bernard, Constantine Michalopoulos, and L. Alan Win- Eckart Scharrer, eds., Trade, Investment, and Competition Policies ters. Forthcoming. "Special and Differential Treatment of Develin the Global Economy: The Case of the International Telecommuni- oping Countries: Moving Forward after Cancun." WllorldEconomy. cations Regime. Baden-Baden: Nomos. Hoekman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Marcelo Olarreaga Francois, Joseph, and Will Martin "Formula Approaches to "Eliminating Excessive Tariffs on Exports of Least Devel- Market Access Negotiations." WorldEconomy 26(1): oped Countries." IVorldBank Economic Review 16(1): Forthcoming. "Commercial Policy, Bindings, and Market. Forthcoming. "Reducing Agricultural Tariffs versus Domes- Access." European Economic Review. tic Support: What Is More Important for Developing Countries?" Fran,ois, Joseph, Hans van Meijl, and Frank van Tongeren World Bank Economic Review. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the lanchovichina, Elena, Aaditya Mattoo. and Marcelo Olarreaga. Doha Round." CEPR Discussion Paper Centre for Eco "Unrestricted Market Access for Sub-Saharan Africa: nomic Policy Research, London. How Much Is It Worth and Who Pays?" Policv Research Work- Hoekman, Bernard "Strengthening the Global Trade Archi- ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, tecture for Development: The Post-Doha Agenda." World Washington, D.C. TradeReview I(I): Lederman, Daniel, and,aglar Ozden "U.S. 'Irade.Forthcoming. "Developing Countries and the WTO Doha Preferences: All Are Not Created Equal." World Bank. Round: Market Access, Rules, and Differential Treatment." Development Research Group, Washington, I).C. Journal of Economic Integration. Martin, Will, and Mari Pangcstu, eds Options for Global,ed "Developing Countries and the Next Round of Trade Reform:A View from the Asia-Pac fic. Cambridge: Cambridge WTO Negotiations." Special issue of IVorld Economy. University Press. Hoekman, Bernard, and Will Martin, eds Developing Coun- Martin, Will, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, and Vlad Nl\anole. tries and the IVTO: A Pro-Active Agenda. Oxford: Blackwell "Is the Devil in the Details? Assessing thc WVelfare Impli "The New International Trade Agenda and the cations of Agricultural and Nonagricultural 'Irade Reforms." WTO." Special issue of Review of International Economics Paper presented at the Conference on Global 'Irade Reform, (May). The Hague. 104 International Economics

111 Niaskus, Keith "Regulatory Standards in the WTO: Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Comparing Intellectual Property Rights with Competition Roheim, A. Cathy "Trade Liberalization in Fish Products: Policy, Environmental Protection, and Core Labor Standards." Impacts on Sustainability of International Nlarkets and Fish Wlorld 7-rade Reuiew' 1(2): Resources." World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nlattoo, Aaditya "Shaping Future Rules for Trade in Wailes, J. Eric "Rice Global Trade, Protectionist Policies, Scrvices: Lcssons from the GATS." In Takatoshi Ito and Anne and the Impact of Trade Liberalization." World Bank, Wash- 0. Krueger, eds., Trade in Services in the Asia-Pacific Region. ington, D.C. Chicago: ITnivcrsity of Chicago Press. World Bank "Textile and ClothingPolicy Note: Implications Nlattoo. Aaditya, and Antonia Carzaniga, eds M7ovingPeople for Pakistan of Abolishing Textile and Clothing Export to DeliverSercvices. New York: Oxford tjniversity Press. Quotas." Washington, D.C. Nlattoo, Aaditva, and Nlarcelo Olarreaga "Reciprocity across Trade, Standards, and Regulatory Reforms At the forefront of research and policy discussions on trade is the relationship between trade, technical regulations, and voluntary standards. Such issues as the appropriate levels of protection for food safety and the costs of testing and certification regulations are becoming increasingly critical for developing countries as tariffs decline and as these countries seek to strengthen their industrial performance, increase their agricultural production, and expand their export opportunities. This project explores how standards and technical regulations can affect exports from developing countries and how multilateral policies should be formulated in reference to the international standards. It also aims to help build the capacity of developing countries in research and policymaking to facilitate trade. The research quantifies the impact of standards on trade and development, focusing on developing countries. The analysis is based on an econometric approach using cross-country data covering bilateral trade flows between developing and OECD countries and cross-firm data covering 690 firms in 17 developing countries. Several studies compare the impact of different food safety standards, estimating the potential gains to African exporting countries if the importing countries followed "I'he Perversity of Preferences: The Generalized the Codex standards rather than the more stringent stan- System of Preferences and Developing Country Trade Policies, dards followed by most European countries. A study on " Policy Research NWorking Paper World Bank, aflatoxin standards and trade in nuts, cereals, and dried Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. and preserved fruits estimated the potential gains for nine African exporting countries at $670 million annually. A erential NMarket Access: The Caribbean Basin Initiative and the study on chlorpyrifos pesticide standards and banana Apparel Sector." Policy Research Working Paper World trade estimated the potential gains for four African Mlodes of Supply in the WTO: A Negotiating Formula." International Trade Journal 18: Mlattoo, Aaditya, and Sacha Wuinsch "Securing Openness of Cross-Border Trade in Services." World Bank, Development Research Group, NWashington, D.C. Mlattoo, Aaditya, Devesh Roy, and Arvind Subramanian "The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Generosity tjndermined?" Policy and Research Working P'aper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Nlesscrlin, Patrick "Agriculture in the Doha Agenda." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Mitchell. Donald "Sugar Policies: Opportunity for Change." IPolicy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. Nlitchcll, I)onald, and NMyles Nlielke "The Global Wheat NMarket." WVorld Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. ()larrcaga, Mlarcelo, and C,aglar Ozden. Forthcoming. "AGOA and Apparel: NWho Captures the 'Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential Nlarket Access?" Wl,orldEconomy. Ozden, (,aglar, and Eric Reinhardt "First Do No Harm: The Effect of I nilateral Trade Preferences on Developing Country Exports." WNorld Bank, Development Research Group, Wskashington, D.C. Ozden, (,aglar, and Gunjan Sharma "Price Effects of Pref- lnternolioniol Economics I 05

112 exporting countries at $410 million. And a study on Reports veterinary drug standards and beef trade estimated the Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Barbara Kotschwar, and John S. Wilson potential gains for African exporting countries at $160 "Trade Policy, Standards, and Development in Central Amermillion. Another study is empirically estimating the cost ica." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develto developing country firms of complying with foreign opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. standards and the effect of standards on export "Trade and Standards: A Look at Central America." ability. World Economy 25(7): The project has provided advisory services to devel- Maskus, Keith E., and John S. Wilson Quantifyingthe Impact oping countries through World Bank missions. And it of Technical Barriers to Trade: Can It Be Done.? Ann Arbor: has contributed to a policy-based loan in the Arab Repub- University of Michigan Press. lic of Egypt, a public policy technical assistance loan in Maskus, Keith E., John S. Wilson, and Tsunehiro Otsuki Panama, and private sector and export competitive- "Quantifying the Impact of Technical Barriers to Trade: A ness projects in Honduras, Mozambique, Peru, and FrameworkforAnalysis." Policy Research WorkingPaper2512. Uganda. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Results have been presented at seminars and con- Otsuki, Tsunehiro, John S. Wilson, and Mirvat Sewadeh ferences for donor and government officials and trade and "Measuring the Effect of Food Safety Standards on African development economists and practitioners. These include Exports to Europe." In Kym Anderson, Cheryl McRae, and presentations at a meeting of the World Trade Organi- David Wilson, eds., The Economics of QuaranfineandtheSPSAgreezation Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (Feb- ment. Adelaide: Centre for International Economic Studies; ruary 2000), a meeting of the World Trade Organization and Canberra: AFFA Biosecurity. Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards "A Race to the Top? A Case Study of Food Safety (June 2000), an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Standards and African Exports." Policy Research Working (APEC) seminar on trade facilitation in Singapore Paper2563.WorldBank,DevelopmentResearchGroup,Wash- (September 2000), an Asian Development Bank Institute ington, D.C. seminar (February 2002), and a trade training seminar at "Saving Two in a Billion: Quantifying the Trade the U.S. Agency for International Development (June Effect of European Food Safety Standards on African Exports." 2003). They also include presentations in Panama City Food Policy 26(5): (June 2000), Nairobi (July 2001), and Tokyo (March "What Price Precaution? European Harmonization 2002) and at Georgetown University (June 2002) and the of Aflatoxin Regulations and African Groundnut Exports." World Trade Organization (July 2003). European Review of Agricultural Economics 28(3): Research findings have been used in several World Roberts, Donna, Laurian Unnevehr, Julie Caswell, Ian Sheldon, Bank training courses, including a course on standards John Wilson, Tsunehiro Otsuki, and David Orden and agricultural trade (May 2002) and two courses on trade "Agriculture in the WTO: The Role of Product Attributes in facilitation (June 2003 and March 2004). the Agricultural Negotiations." IATRC Commissioned Paper The project has developed a database on standards and 17. International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, trade based on a firm-level survey in 17 countries and Pullman, Wash. will make the database available on the Web in Wilson, John S "Standards, Developing Countries, and the Results from the study are available at Global Trade System." In World Bank, GlobalEconomic Prospects.worldbank.org/trade/standards Washington, D.C. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-John "The Economic Impact of Trade Facilitation: Devel- S. Wilson (jswilson@worldbank.org) and Tsunehiro opment Perspectives in the Asia Pacific." Paper presented at Otsuki. With Keith Maskus and Xiaoyang Chen, Uni- the Fourth Asia Development Forum, Seoul, November 3-5. versity of Colorado at Boulder "Liberalizing Trade in Agriculture: Developing Countries in Asia and the Post-Doha Agenda." Policy Research 106 International Economics

113 Working Paper World Bank, Development Research "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Group, Washington, D.C. A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact." WVorld Bank "The Role of Trade Policies in Economic Devel- Economic Review 17(3): opment." InternationalDevelopmentJournal(NMav) "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: "Standards, Regulation, and Trade: WTO Rules Measuring the Impact." Policy Research Working Paper and Developing Country Concerns." In Bernard Hoekman, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Aaditya Mattoo, and Philip English, eds., Development, Trade, "Assessing the Potential Benefit of Trade Facilitation: and the WTO. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. A Global Perspective." Policy Research Working Paper "Trade-Related Technical Assistance." Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. presented at the International Forum on Trade Facilitation: Wilson, John S., 'Isunehiro Otsuki, and Baishali Majumdar Simpler Procedures for World Trade Growth, UInited Nations "Balancing Food Safety and Risk: Do Drug Residue Limits Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva, Mlay Affect International Trade in Beef?" Journalof International Trade Wilson, John S., and VictorO. Abiola, eds Standards and Global and Economic Development 12(4). Trade:A VoiceforAfrica. Washington, D.C.: World Bank "Food Safety Scare or Reasonable Risk: Do Drug Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki "Food Safety Reg- Residue Limits Affect International 'Trade in Beef?" Agricululations and Global Food Trade Patterns: Winners and Losers tural and Rural Development NVorking Paper 8. NVorld Bank, in a Fragmented System." Paper presented at the annual meet- Washington, D.C. ing of the American Agricultural Economics Association, Wilson, John S., Tsunehiro Otsuki, and Mirvat Sewadeh Chicago, August 5-8. "Dirty Exports and Environmental Regulation: Do Standards "Global ''rade and Food Safety: Winners and Losers NIatter to 'frade?" Policy Research Working Paper NVorld in a Fragmented System." Policy Research Working Paper Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also World Bank, Development Research Group, NVashington, presented at the annual meeting of the American Agricultural D.C. Economics Association, Chicago, August 5-8, 2001.) "To Spray or Not to Spray: Pesticides, Banana Wilson, John S.. Catherine Mann, Yuen Pau Woo, Nizar Assanie, Exports, and Food Safety." Policy Research Working Paper and Inbom Choi "Trade Facilitation: A Development World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Perspective in the Asia-Placific Region." Asia-Pacific Economic "Balancing Risk Reduction and Benefits from Trade Cooperation Secretariat, Singapore. in Setting Standards." In Laurian Unnevehr, ed., Food Safety in Food Security and Food Trade Focus 10. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. Trade, Trademarks, and Reputation "Food Safety and Trade: Winners and Losers in a Reputation in foreign markets is widely recognized as a Nonharmonized World." Journalof EconomicIntegration 18(2): major determinant of a country's export performance. For developing country firms, rarely able to offer a histori- Wilson, John S., and Yuen Pau Woo "Cutting through Red cal record of reliable trade performance, the use of trade- Tape:NewDirectionsforAPEC's'FradeFacilitationAgenda." marks becomes a crucial mechanism for establishing Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Vancouver. their reputation and thus protecting their products and Wilson, John S., Carsten Fink, and Shweta Bagai "Reduc- business practices from free riding by competitors. ing Trade Costs in a New Era of Security." In World Bank, Global A potential problem with trademark protection is that Economic Prospects Washington, D.C. it may be subject to political capture. Allowing some Wilson, John S., Catherine L. Mann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki firms but not others to register their trademarks-or "Trade Facilitation and Capacity Building: A Global Perspec- applying different standards in enforcing trademark tive." Paper presented at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooper- law-can confer an important commercial advantage. ation Capacity Building Workshop on Measuring Nontariff Discrimination in trademark registration against foreign Barriers, Bangkok, April 10. firms exporting to the local market can thus become International Economics 107

114 another tool of trade protection-a "behind the border" premium, using currency forwards and spot rates. barrier to trade. Country risk is measured by the spread of foreign 'This project explores the extent to which discrimi- currency sovereign bonds over bonds issued by nation in trademark registration has been used to hinder Germany and the tlnited States. exports from other countries, focusing the empirical The study addresses two main policy cltestions: What application on China, Hong Kong (China), India, and is the credibility of exchange rate regimes? And why do South Africa. The study combines a data set of cross- countries borrow short term despite its risks? country trademark registrations and applications, drawn The work on currency risk explores major dimcnfrom the World Intellectual Property Organization data- sions of the currency premium and characterizes the base, with trade, production, and tariff data for more behavior of this premium in two currency boards-those than 100 country pairs and 30 industries. Using a model of Argentina and Hong Kong (China)-able to maintain of asymmetric information between buyers and sellers, a hard peg to the U.S. dollar for a long time. 'l'he research it then explores the extent to which governments (or shows that no matter how hard exchange rates are, 0 l1. trademark offices) have incentives to discriminate against foreign firms. Finally, it tests the implications of the declines significantly at times of turmoil and with cermodel using data for the four developing economies. The study has found several patterns in the bilateral reg- istration of trademarks. For example, OECD countries dominate the global market of trademark registration. But in low-income countries non-oecd countries represent as much as 20 percent of all foreign trademark registrations. In addition, the study has found prima facie and more structural evidence that in China trademark registration does not seem to be used as a "behind the border" bar- rier to discriminate against foreign firms. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade- Marcelo Olarreaga (molarreaga@worldbank.org), Carsten Fink, Beata Smarzynska, and Ekaterina Krivonos. With Eugenia Baroncelli, University of Bologna. Reports Baroncelli, Eugenia, Carsten Fink, and Beata Smarzynska. Forth- they are not fully credible. Mloreover, their credibility tain policy actions. The work on country risk proposes a new explanation of why countries rely on short-term debt and expose themselves to liquidity crises, arguing that borrowing short term is cheaper than borrowing long term. 'To do so, it presents a model that describes the optimal risk sharing between the debtor country and bondholders. In addition, it estimatcs the relative cost of borrowing at different maturities by constructing a new database on bond prices for eight emerging market economies (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Nlexico, the Russian Fed- eration, Turkey, UIruguay, and Rep6blica Bolivariana de Venezuela) and two referencc countries (Giermany and the ITnited States), from the early 1990s until the present. T'he analysis shows that the cost of issuing long-term debt is higher than the cost of issuing short-term debt on coming. "The Global Distribution of 'rademarks: Some average, and that this difference is greater during Stvlized Facts." luorlderonomy. Baroncelli, Eugenia, Ekaterina Krivonos, and Marcelo Olarreaga. periods of financial turmoil than during tranquil times. NMoreover, it shows that there is a negative correlation 20(4. "1 radcmark Protection or Protectionism?" Policy Research between the relative cost of long-term borrowing and the Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Understanding Country and Currency Risk T'his research studies the behavior and determinants of meetings of the American Economic Association in W/N7ashcurrency risk and country risk in emerging market economies. Currency risk is measured by the currency maturity of new debt issues. Emerging market economies issue relativelv more short-term debt during periods of financial turmoil and wait for tranquil times to issue long-term debt. 'T'he research has been presented at the 2002 annual ington, D.C.: the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Inter-American Seminar on Economics in 108 International Economirs

115 Cambridge, NMassachusetts, in 2001; the NBER Summer world stability) as well as for the global trading system. Institute in 2002; the Latin American Meeting of the To help Russia recognize where further reform and WTO Econometric Society in Buenos Aires; meetings of the commitments can be useful to its growth, development, Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association in and poverty reduction, this study explores potential NMadrid, NMontevideo, and Puebla (Mexico); the World effects of WTO accession for the Russian economy. Bank-lntcrnational NMonetary Fund Joint Research Sem- To carry out the study, a comparative static model of inar; New York University; the Federal Reserve Bank of the Russian economy was developed. 'Fhe model includes Dallas; and UTniversitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona. both competitive and imperfectly competitive scctors. The project produced two databases, one containing One innovative aspect of the model is that it assesses the various measures of currency risk at different maturities impact of foreign direct investment with Dixit-Stiglitz and the other containing information on bond spreads at productivity effects in the service sectors in an applied different maturities. setting. In addition, the project produced estimates of the Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, ad valorem equivalents of barriers to foreign direct invest- Office of the Chief Economist-Luis Serven (lserven@ ment in several Russian service sectors-banking, worldbank.org) and Mlarina Halac; and Development insurance, telecommunications, and maritime and air Research Group, NIacroeconomics and Growth-Sergio transport services-based on a survey of Russian rescarch Schmukler. With Leonor Coutinho Gouveia; Fernando institutes on the regulatory environment in each sector. Broner, l Univ%ersity of NMaryland; Guido Lorenzoni, Prince- International cross-country regressions were then used ton University; Andrea Bubula, Columbia University; to determine the effect of WTO commitments to liber- Tatiana Didier, Nlassachusetts Institute of Technology; alize foreign direct investment in these key areas. and Yave Sakho, LUniversity of Pennsylvania. Analysis of the effect of WTO accession suggests that Russia would gain through better access to export mar- Reports kets, better resource allocation, better access to modern 13roner. F ernando, (Guido Lorenzoni, and Sergio Schmukler technologies resulting from greater competition in goods "Nh\ Do Emerging Mlarkets Borrow Short 'Term?" CREI markets, and, most important, better access to highb'orking Plaper. Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Centre de Recerca quality business services as a result of lowering barriers en Econonmia Internacional, Barcelona. to foreign direct investment in services. Estimates show crei/research/wpapers/wpapers.html. that WTO accession would lead to gains equal to about Schmukler, Sergio, and Luis Seren Pricing Currency Risk: 7.4 percent of consumption in the medium run and up Fti,-ts adpnl'ule.sfromn Currenc Boards. NBER Working Paper to 24 percent in the long run, taking into account the Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic potential positive effect on the investment climate. Research. (Also issued as Policy Research WVorking Paper 2815, Export-intensive sectors would expand the most, while \World Bank, Development Research Group, WN'ashington. D.C., sectors that do little exporting and are relatively protected 2002.) would lose in the short to medium run. Foreign direct "Pricing Currency Risk under Currency Boards." investment in the business service sectors would be Jonr-nal of ldee/opmenteconwoics 69(2): likely to increase the demand for labor in these sectors and present opportunities for Russian firms to form joint The World Trade Organization ventures with multinationals, but also induce a decline and the Russian Federation in wholly owned Russian firms that do not form joint ventures with multinationals. I'he Russian Federation is the last large economy remain- Given the importance of telecommunications sering outside the World Trade Organization (WTO). Its vices, a separate analysis assessed the effect of telecomaccession to the T'l'O is considered important for the munications reform within the WTro. '1'he analysis country's economic growth and stability (and thus for estimates that lowering barriers to foreign direct invest- Internationol Economics 109

116 ment in telecommunications would lead to substantial Russia, dual pricing of natural gas is now generally gains for the Russian economy, equal to almost 1 percent acknowledged to be in Russia's interest. of consumption, with potentially much greater gains in Results have been discussed with the Russian the long run. government. In addition, the general equilibrium work Since the pricing of natural gas presents a major issue has been presented at two conferences organized by the for the accession discussions, another analysis assessed Center for Economic and Financial Research in Moscow; the costs and benefits for those affected. This analysis a conference organized by the Russian NMinistry of ELcofinds that Russia has market power in the European nomic Development and Trade and the International market and is optimizing the price and quantity it sells Labour Organization in St. Petersburg; the U.S.-Russia there. In the domestic market, where Gazprom retains Business Council in Washington, D.C.; the U.S. Chama near monopoly, the analysis suggests that allowing ber of Commerce in Moscow; and a World Bank Insti- Gazprom to raise its natural gas prices to the full long- tute seminar in Moscow. Several more presentations are run marginal costs would produce benefits to Russia of planned, including at the Global Trade Analysis Project about $1.24 billion a year. conference in Washington, D.C., in June The analysis also reveals that, from Russia's per- Data and papers from the project are available on the spective, there is no economic rationale for unifying its Web at domestic and export prices of natural gas. If Russia were Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-David to sell natural gas to Europe at the full long-run marginal 'Farr (dtarr@worldbank.org), Ekaterina Krivonos, and cost plus transport costs, it would lose $5 billion-7.5 billion Oleksandr Shepotylo; and Europe and Central Asia a year-while European consumers would gain even more Region, Infrastructure and Energy Services Department ($7.5 billion-10 billion a year). If Russia instead were to raise -Peter Trhomson. With Thomas Rutherford, University its domestic prices to those it charges in Europe, Russian of Colorado; Jesper Jensen, Copenhagen Economics, industry would incur large adjustment costs. Absorbing the Denmark; Fukunari Kimura and Mitsuyo Ando, Keio cost increases would induce Russian industry to switch to UTniversity, Japan; and Takamune Fujii, Aichi UTniversity, alternative fuels and produce less gas-intensive products Japan. that cannot be justified on the basis of Russia's comparative advantage. If Gazprom were to adopt its optimal "two- Reports part tariff," the efficient world price would be achieved and Jensen, Jesper Thomas Rutherford, and David 'Iarr "Econ- Gazprom would increase its profits, but this involves omvowide and Sector Effects of Russia's Accession to the WTO." significant long-term risks of lost market share. NVorld Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. The general equilibrium analysis is the first to show "'Telecommunications Reform within Russia's Accesclear and substantial gains from the endogenous pro- sion to the WTO." WVorld Bank, D)evelopment Research Group, ductivity effects of liberalizing foreign direct investment Washington, D.C. in the service sector. Thus it provides intellectual back- Kimura, Fukunari, Nlitsuvo Ando, and 'Iakamune Fujii ground for the "behind the border" agenda that the "Financial Services Sectors." World Bank's Trade Group is emphasizing in its "NlaritimeandAir'lransportationServiceSectors." dialogue with client countries and operations staff. The "Telecommunication Services Sectors." gas pricing analysis has been persuasive in changing the Tarr, David. and Peter Thomson "The NMcrits of Dual debate in Washington, D.C.; while many had assumed Plricing of Russian Natural Gas." World Bank, I)evelopment that a unified domestic and export price was optimal for Research Group, WVashington, D.C. 110 International Economics

117 Domestic Finance Bank Concentration and Competition Another important finding is that concentration is not a good proxy for the overall competitive environment, Competition policies in banking may involve difficult and its impact often depends on the regulatory and institradeoffs. While greater competition may enhance the tutional framework. Thus policymakers would do betefficiency of banks, with positive implications for eco- ter to focus on improving the regulatory and institutional nomic growth, it may also destabilize banks, with costly environment and ownership structure than to try to repercussions for the economv. Similarly, while greater reduce concentration in banking. competition may produce banks that enable small firms The findings have been disseminated to policy audito exercise their entrepreneurial energies, it may also yield ences through training programs, operational support less stable banks prone to devastating crises. activities, and presentations to the World Bank's Finance This research project explores these issues by assess- Sector Board (November 2003). They were also ing the effect of bank concentration, regulations, owner- presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank ship, and institutional development on efficiency, financial Concentration and Competition, held April 3-4, 2003, in stability, and firms' access to finance. The research is both Washington, D.C., and attended by academics, World theoretical and empirical, with the empirical work using Bank and International Monetary Fund staff, and cross-country macroeconomic, firm-level, and bank-level policymakers from more than 30 developing countries. data. The project includes regional studies-on Africa. The conference papers are forthcoming in a special issue Europe, and Latin America-exploring the impact of bank of thejournalofmvoney, Credit, andbanking and are availconcentration. The aim is to better understand the elements able on the Web, along with a database on bank conthat contribute to the level of banking competition, bench- centration around the world, at mark bank competition and concentration around the.org/research/interest/confs/bank_concentration.htm. world, and investigate the tradeoffs involved in decisions Responsibility: Development Research Group, Financeon regulatory interventions to alter market structure. Asl I Demirgii-yKunt (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org) 'There is no single, accepted measure of bank compe- and Thorsten Beck, and Trade-NMaria Soledad tition. For lack of a better measure, bank concentration is Martinez Peria; and Financial Sector Operations and often used as an indicator of bank competition. The Policy Department-Luc Laeven. With Ross Levine competitive environment is also influenced by bank and John Boyd, University of Mlinnesota; Vojislav NMakregulations, such as restrictions on entry, exit, and bank simovic, University of NMaryland; Franklin Allen, Wharactivities, and by national institutions that govern economic ton School; Douglas Gale, New York U niversity; Allen freedom in general. The ownership structure of banks, such Berger, Joe Haubrich, and Nicola Cetorelli, Federal as the extent of state or foreign ownership in banking, and Reserve System; Charles Okeahalam, University of Witmacroeconomic and financial conditions may also play an watersrand; Stijn Claessens, University of Amsterdam; important part. The research uses all these measures. and Ashoka NMody and Gianni de Nicol6, International Results makc it clear that, contrary to conventional Nlonetary Fund. wisdom, there are no difficult tradeoffs when it comes to bank competition. Greater competition-as captured Reports by lower entry barriers, fewer regulatory restrictions on Allen, Franklin. and Douglas Gale "Competition and Finanbank activities, greater banking freedom, and better cial Stability." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference overall institutional development-is good for efficiency, on Bank Concentration and Compctition, Washington, D.C., good for stabilitv, and good for firms' access to finance. April

118 Beck, T'horsten, Ashl Demirgiy-Kunt, and Ross Levine "Bank Concentration and Crises." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Compe- tition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. Beck, Thorsten, Aslh Demirgijc-Kunt, and Vojislav NMaksimovic. performance and improve sector stability, this project summarized those experiences, analyzed the political economy factors that affected the choice of privatization method, and studied how postprivatization performance differed under alternative methods. The research used "BankCompetition, FinancingObstacles, and Access to a variety of approaches, designed to provide useftl Credit." PaperpresentedatrheWorldBankConferenceonBank Concentration and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. information about when it is most fruitful to pursue bank privatization, how alternative transaction designs Berger, Allen, Aslh Demirgfi,-Kunt, Ross Levine, and Joe Haubrich. affect outcomes, and how to avoid common obstacles. F, orthcoming. "Bank Concentration and Competition: An Evo- The project conducted detailed country case studies lution in the Making." Journal of,1 oney, Credit, andbanking. and careful econometric analyses of bank-level panel Boyd, John H., Gianni de Nicol6, and Bruce D. Smith "Crises in Competitive versus Monopolistic Banking Systems." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Con- Hungary, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, and Romacentration and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. Cetorelli, Nicola "Real Effects of Bank Concentration and Competition in Europe." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Competition, Wash- ington, D.C., April 3-4. Claessens, Stijn, and Luc Laeven "What Drives Bank Com- petition? Some International Evidence." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Compe- tirion, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. Demirgoc--Kunt, Asli, Luc Laeven, and Ross Levine "The Impact of Bank Regulations, Concentration, and Institutions These studies used event study methodology, benchon Bank Margins." Paper presented at the World Bank Con- ference on Bank Concentration and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. Martinez Peria. NMaria Soledad, and Ashoka Mody "How For- eign Participation and Market Concentration Impact Bank Spreads: Evidence from Latin America." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Concentration and Compe- state ownership. But several policies reduce the benetition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. Okeahalam, Charles "Concentration in the Banking Sector of the Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa." Paper banks. In weak institutional environments share offerpresented at the NVorld Bank Conference on Bank Concentra- tion and Competition, Washington, D.C., April 3-4. Bank Privatization in Developing Countries Countries have used a variety of methods in selling state- owned banks to the private sector. Because the World Bank is often asked for advice on how to design successful bank privatizations to ensure strong postprivatization data in 12 countries-argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croa- tia, the Czech Republic, the Arab Republic of Egypt, nia. These 12 countries were chosen because they had high levels of state ownership of banks at some point in the 1990s and undertook a relatively large number of privatizations. The country case studies were complemented by cross-country analyses. By examining cross-country variation in bank privatization, one study directly tested the political and economic factors that lead governments to relinquish control of banks. Others yielded policy conclusions about popular methods of bank privatization. marking the share price of the acquired or acquiring bank against share prices for the market as a whole and for a control group of banks that were not privatized. The case studies and cross-country analyses support the conclusion that privatization, even of relatively poorly performing banks, improves performance over continued fits of privatization. Continued state ownership, even of minority shares, harms the performance of privatizcd ings produce smaller performance gains than direct sales to strategic investors. And prohibiting foreigners from participating reduces the gains from both direct sales and share issue privatization. The research was presented at the World Bank Con- ference on Bank Privatization, held in Washington, D.C., on November 20-21, The conference papers will be published in a special issue of the Journal of Banking and Finance. In addition, the conference findings were 112 Domesfit Finonce

119 presented at a NWorld Bank workshop designed to inform Bonin, John P., Iftekhar Hasan, and Paul Wachtel "Bank banking regulators and supervisors from developing Performance, Efficiency, and Ownership in Transition Councountries about current research. tries." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank 'I'hc conference papers are available on the Web at Privatization, Washington, D.C., November Clarke, George R. G., and Robert Cull "Why Privatize? -privatization_conference.htm. 'I'he Case of Argentina's Public Provincial Banks." Wlor/dDeve/- Responsibility: [)cvelopment Research Group, Finance opment 27(5): Gerard Caprio Jr. (gcaprio@worldbank.org), Trade "Provincial Bank Privatization in Argentina: 'I'he Why, Robert Cull, and Investment Climate-George R. G. the How, and the So What." In Harvey Rosenblum, ed., Bank Clarke. With Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti, Bank of Italy; Privatization: Conference Proceedings ofa Poly Research llorkshop. John P. Bonin, Wesleyan University; Kimberly Gleason, Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Florida Atlantic University; Stephen Haber, Stanford "Bank Privatization in Argentina: A Model of PolittTnivcrsity; Iftekhar Hasan, Rensselaer Polytechnic Insti- ical Constraints and Differential Outcomes." Policy Research tute; Afeikhena Jerome, luniversity of Ibadan; Shawn Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Kantor, t niversity of Arizona; William Megginson, Okla- Group, Washington, D.C. homa University; Fariborz NlIoshirian, Ulniversity of New "Political and Economic Determinants of the Like- South Wales; Nlarcio Nakane, UJniversity of Sao Paulo; lihood of Privatizing Argentine Public Banks." Journal of LIaw Robert Nash, Wake Forest University; Mlohammed andeconomics45(1): Omran, Arab Nlonetary Fund; Isaac Otchere, University "Bank Privatization in Argentina: Results of the of Melbourne; M'lary Shirley, Ronald Coase Institute; Project's Pilot Study." Paper presented at the World Bank Con- William Summerhill, LTniversity of California at Los ference on Bank Privatization, Washington. D.C., November Angeles; Paul Wachtcl, New lork University; and Jonathan Williams, I Tniversity of Wales. Clarke, George R. G., Juan Nliguel Crivelli, and Robert Cull Reports Beck, Thorsten, Juan Nliguel Crivelli, and William Summerhill "'T'he Transformation of State Banks in Brazil." Paper pre- June sented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., November Beck, Thorsten. Robert Cull, and Afeikhena 'T Jerome "fhe Impact of Bank Privatization and Foreign Entry on Access to Credit in Argentina's Provinces." Paper presented at the Ninth Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Bank of Croatia, Djankov, Simeon, Jan Jindra, and Leora Klapper "Corpo- rate Valuation and the Resolution of Bank Insolvency in East Asia." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank "Bank Privatization and Performance: Empirical Evidence Privatization, Washington, D.C., November from Nigeria." Paper presented at the WVorld Bank Confer- ence on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., November Haber, Stephen, and Shawn Kantor "Getting Privatization Wrong: The Mlexican Banking System, " Paper 2(0-21. presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Berger, Allen N., George R. G. Clarke, Robert Cull, Leora KlIap- Washington, D.C., November per. and Gregorv E [Idell "Governance and the Efficiency of Commercial Banks: Evidence from the Argentinean Bank- Nfegginson, William "'I'he Economics of Bank Privatization." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank ing SNstem." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference Privatization, Washington, D.C., November 2(0-21. on 13ank Privatization, WVashington, D.C., November Nash, Robert C., Ekkehart Boehmer, and Jeffry NI. Netter "Bank Privatization in Developing and Developed Coun- Bonaccorsi di Patti, Emilia, and Daniel Hardy "Bank Reform and Bank Efficiency in Pakistan." Paper presentcd at the World Bank (Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., Novcmber November tries: Cross-Sectional Evidence on the Impact of Economic and Political Factors." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., Domestic Finanne 113

120 Omran, Nlohammed "Privatization, State Ownership, and This midterm evaluation of African reforms shows that Bank Performance in Egypt." Paper presented at the World the results have been mixed. State banks were privatized, Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., laws updated, and inflation brought under control. For- November eign banks gained a much larger market share, while state Otchere, Isaac "Do Privatized Banks in NMiddle- and Low- banks saw their role decline. Financial systems generally Income Countries Perform Better Than Rival Banks? An Intra- improved by some measures; for example, many insol- Industry Analysis of Bank Privatization." Paper presented at the vent banks were closed, bank accounting and auditing World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, generally improved, and banking supervisors were given D.C., November more authority, at least on paper. But many African finan- Pennarhur, Anita, Kimberly Gleason, and James McNulty cial systems grew less rapidly than the economy. The "Returns to Bidders of Privatizing Financial Services Firms: An banks now hold more foreign assets, partly in response International Examination." Paper presented at the World to the increase in foreign currency deposits. Only a few Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., financial systems appear to have increased lending to the November private sector. Thus while the systems may be more Sherif, Khaled "The Fiscal Cost of State Banks in Eastern stable, the availability of lending and depository ser- Europe and Central Asia." Paper presented at the World Bank vices has not yet increased. Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., Novem- The results of the research have been used for develber opment assessments in financial sector adjustment pro- Shirley. Nlary, George R. G. Clarke, and Robert Cull "Syn- grams in Africa. thesis: Empirical Studies of Bank Privatization." Paper presented Responsibility: Financial Sector Operations and Policy Departat the World Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Wash- ment-jo Ann Paulson (jpaulson@worldbank.org). ington, D.C., November Williams, Jonathan, and Nghia Nguyen "Liberalization, Credit Fluctuations in Latin America Ownership, and Efficiency Issues: A Comparative Study of South East Asian Banking." Paper presented at the WVorld The Latin American financial history of the 1990s was Bank Conference on Bank Privatization, Washington, D.C., characterized by wide fluctuations in bank credit to the November private sector. These fluctuations were relatively synchronized across countries, suggesting common region- Changes in African Financial Systems wide factors at work. Moreover, a significant stagnation during the 1990s or contraction of credit was observed after 1998 in many Latin American countries. This research investigates Many African countries experienced widespread finan- factors behind these observations and their policy implicial sector problems in the 1980s and 1990s. Reforms cations. It quantifies the importance of different deterstarted in the 1990s. This study assessed their impact by minants of credit supply and demand, applying a pooled comparing the status of African financial systems between mean group estimation technique to quarterly panel the early 1990s and the early 2000s, over the period of data covering 10 Latin American countries in early reforms. The research finds that lending capacity and eco- The study used cross-country information from the nomic activity have been the main drivers of credit International Monetary Fund's International Financial growth in the longer run, but that the adjustment to the Statistics database and the World Bank's World Devel- long-run equilibrium has been slow. In the shorter run opment Indicators database to develop indicators of important factors have been crowding out by the govfinancial sector performance. It supplemented data from ernment, macroeconomic uncertainty, changes in lend- Bankscope with data from annual reports and other pri- ing rates, and, especially during downturns, banks' mary sources to develop indicators of bank performance. unwillingness to lend and pressures on firms to delever- 114 Domestic Finance

121 age. T he study also finds evidence of a growing phenomenon, particularly after 1998, of "liquid banks that do not Icnd"-reflecting a slower adjustment in lending relatively little systematic research in this area. As a result, the rationale for these efforts remains vague. This project aims to help improve World Bank opercapacity during downturns. ations and government policies relating to small and 'I'he findings suggest that the right policies depend medium-size enterprises by: on the stage of the credit cycle and the specific circum- * Studying how firm size is determined and whether stances. In particular, a loosening of monetary policy small and medium-size enterprises have an important intended to reactivate credit can backfire during a down- impact on growth and poverty reduction. turn in whichi risk perceptions are high and liquid banks * Examining to what extent small and medium-size unwilling to lend. In these circumstances cleaning up enterprises face greater constraints to their growth and banks' balance sheets and adjusting corporate balance which policies and future trends are likely to affect these shects are a precondition for a resumption of prudent cornstraints. credit flows. * Exploring creative ways within different country set- Insights from the research have been incorporated into tings to make the existing lending to small and medium- World Bank analytic and advisory activities and opera- size enterprises more effective. tions, including in Bolivia and Costa Rica. The initial The research will be based largely on empirical work, research concept was presented at the Colombian Bank- which will use cross-country macroeconomic, firm-level, ing Association Conference in late 2000, and findings have and bank-level data to analyze determinants of firm size been presented at the Latin American and Caribbean and entry, growth obstacles faced by firms of different Economic Association meetings in October 2001 and at sizes, and the impact of firm size distribution on economic conferences in Cartagena, Colombia, in August 2002 development. The project will also include country case and Santa Cruz, Bolivia, in September studies. Responsibility: Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- Office of the Chief Economist-Augusto de la 'Torre Aslh Demirgui,-Kunt (ademirguckunt@worldbank.org) (adelatorre@worldbank.org), and Finance, Private and Thorsten Beck. Sector, and Infrastructure ttnit-danny Leipziger. With Giancarlo Gasha and Cesar Orosco. Foreign Bank Entry in Developing Countries Report The 1990s saw a big increase in foreign bank lending and Leipziger, Dannv. and Augusto de la 'lorre, with Giancarlo Gasha presence in developing countries, part of the larger and C(sar Orosco. "Behind Bank Credit FluctLiations in Latin process of financial integration in recent decades. America during the 1990s: Old and New Suspects." World Through three studies, this research project analyzes Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the several issues relating to foreign bank lending to devel- (Chicf lconomist, Washington, D.C. oping countries, particularly in Latin America. The first study analyzes changes in foreign bank Firm-Level Finance for Small claims on the Latin American private sector in , and Medium-Size Enterprises focusing on the importance of home and host country factors in driving those claims. The study finds that banks 'I'he WVorld Bank Group has a substantial portfolio of transmit shocks from their home countries and that portactivities relating to small and medium-size enterprises folio adjustments spill over to host countries. Over time, \II-.l l- l But despite the strong interest among devel- however, foreign bank claims have become less responoping country policvmakers in developing the SNIE sive to external factors. NIoreover, the sensitivity to host sector, and the NVorld Bank's fre(luent involvement in country factors diminishes as foreign banks' exposure helping to design strategies for doing so, there has been increases. And evidence shows that foreign bank claims Domestic Finance 115

122 respond more to positive than to negative host country Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also forthcoming injourshocks and are not significantly curtailed during crises. na/of zlloney, C,redit, and Banking.) TIhe second study investigates whether bank origin Nlartinez Peria, NMaria Soledad, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladaffects the share and growth of lending to small busi- kova Hollar "Banking on Foreigners: 'T'he Behavior of nesses, using bank-level data for Argentina, Chile, Colom- International Bank Lending to Latin America, " bia, and Peru in the mid-1990s. It finds that although Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, D)evelopforeign banks generally lent less to small businesses (as ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. This research activity focused on how to make finance effec- tive, how to prevent or minimize financial crises, what record the state has as an owner in the financial sector, and how globalization in finance is leading to a world of finance without frontiers. The research identified and synthesized key findings of an extensive new wave of empirical research, conducted at the World Bank and elsewhere and based largely on cross-country databases. It highlighted the policy choices that will maximize growth and rcstorc the financial sector to its intended role as a key sector for helpingtocopewith-ratherthanamplify-volatility.t''he research produced the following main findings: Finance contributes to long-term prosperitr. It is obvious that advanced economies have sophisticated financial systems. What is not obvious, but is borne out by the evidence, is that the services delivered by these financial systems have contributed in an important way to the prosperity of those economies. Getting the financial systems of developing countries to function more effectively in providing the full range of financial services is a task that will be well rewarded with economic growth. Governments are not good atprovidingfinancialserv-z,s. Government ownership of banking continues to be remarkably widespread, despite clear evidencc that the goals of such ownership are rarely achieved and that it weakens rather than strengthens the financial system. The desirability of reducing, even if not necessarily eliminating, state ownership in low- and middle-income countries (where it is most widespread) follows from this evidence. But privatization must be designed carefully to reap the benefits it offers and minimize the risks of an early collapse. Noteven when a crisis hits. Even governments averse to an ownership role in banking may find it foisted on them a share of total lending) than private domestic banks, the difference is due primarily to the behavior of small foreign banks. Large foreign banks generally surpass large domestic banks in both the share and the growth of lending to small businesses. The last study examines how foreign bank presence affects firms' access to bank credit, combining responses from a 1999 survey of about 3,000 firms in 36 developing and transition economies with cross-country data on the level of foreign bank presence. The results suggest that all enterprises, including small and medium-size ones, have better access to bank credit in countries with greater foreign bank presence. The studies have been disseminated in seminars inside and outside the World Bank as well as at international conferences, including the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association meetings in Nladrid in October Responsibility: Development Research Group, Trade-Mlaria Soledad Martinez Peria (mmartinezperia@worldbank.org) and Robert Cull, and Investment Climate- George R. G. Clarke; and Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Finance Cluster-Susana NI. Sanchez. With Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, International Mlonetary Fund; and Andrew Powell, Universidad 'Torcuato Di Tella. Reports Clarke. George R. G., Robert Cull, and Nlaria Soledad Martinez Ileria "Does Foreign Bank Penctration Reduce Access to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking Borrowers." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, Nlaria Soledad Nlartinez Peria, and Susana MI. Sanchez "Bank Lending to Small Businesses in Latin America: Does Bank Origin Matter?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Incentives in Banking 116 Domestic Finaonce

123 in a crisis.'lhcaauthoriticsthcnmustfocusongettingout finance, including financial services from foreign or as quickly as possible, using the market-rathcr than foreign-owned financial firms. Reputable forcign finangovernment agencies-to identify winners and losers. cial firms should be welcomed into the local market. Drawing on public funds to recapitalize some banks TFhey bring competition, improve efficiency, and lift the mna\ he unav oi(lable in truly systemic crises, but they must quality of the financial infrastructure-and thus serve as bc uscd sparingly, to leverage private funds and incen- an important catalyst for the kind of financial developtives. Procrastination and half mcasures-as reflected in ment that promotes growth. Governments need to lax policics involving rcgulatory forbearance, blanket remember that access to financial services is what guarantees, and their ilk-carry a large price tag that matters for development, not who provides the services. will affect the financial system and the economy for So (an technologv. The financial sector has long becn years to come. an early adopter of innovations in information and com- RuZ/t "-~. r., anral-kets neetd legal and regulatory munications technology. The internationalization of tneleipinning. 'Creating an cfficicnt and sccure financial finance (despite efforts to block it) has been one consemarkct environment re(uircs an infrastructurc of legal quence. This trend has helped to lower the cost of equity rllcs and practicc and timely and accuratc information, sup- and loan capital on average, even if it has also heightcned portcd b\ rcguilatory and supervisory arrangements that help vulnerability to capital flows. 'I'he precisc future role of cnsurc constructive incentives for financial market partic- e-finance in accelerating internationalization is not easy ipallts. Succcss in this area will promote growth in a way to predict, but it will surely be substantial. If volatility that favors the poor and stabilizcs the economy around the has increased, so too have risk management technologies higlhcr growth path. It will also expand direct access to and associated financial instruments. Some related credit financc for maniy now excludcd from the market. information techniques, including scoring mechanisms, Nou'v also need a strztegy based on harnessing incentives. promise to expand access to credit for small borrowcrs. Incentives are key to limiting undue risk taking and 'T'he research has visibly shifted the positions of the frautdulent belhavior in the management and supervi- World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on sioin of financial intermediaries-especially banks, which issues related to incentives in banking, notably deposit arc pronc to costly failure. Instability and crashes are insurance. Lnderlying research projects (Financial Strucendemic to financial markets, but necd not be as costly ture, Deposit Insurance, Bank Regulation and Supervias they havc bccn in recent years. They reflect the sion) have helped to increase the capacity for policy rcsults of risk taking that goes well beyond society's research in developing countries, especially by supplytolcrance for risk. 'I'lTese costs rcpresent a potentially ing them with new cross-country databases and new pcrsistent tax on growth. 'I'his can increase poverty in the tools for analyzing these data. In addition, reslilts from ncar term, and have longer-tcrm effects on the poor, the research have been incorporated into WVorld Bank through loeowr growth and through lower spending in such Institute courses and distance learning evcnts. arcas as hcalth and education. The research results have been widely shared with Thcvir.tr isgood/orstlaliitl. Banks, securities markets, academics, the press, market specialists, and the policy and a range of other types of financial firms are all needed community through dissemination events for the WVorld for balanced financial development. A radical prefer- Bank Policy Research Report produced by the project. enec for either markets or banks cannot be justified by These events, held Nlay-July 2001, took place in London, the extenlsiv-e evidence now available. Instead, the devel- Washington, D.C., Paris, 'Pokyo, Beijing, Shanghai, Sydney, opment of (itfferent segments of the financial system chal- Canberra, Adelaide, New Delhi, NMumbai, Cairo, Johanlenges the other segments to innovate, to improve quality nesburg, Hong Kong (China), and Vietnam. In addition, and efficiency, and to lower prices. results were disseminated in African countries through a dis- (pen mnarkets (an sprl deuveopnent. NMost developing tance learning event in July 2001 and in Argentina, Chile, countries are too small to do without access to global and Tunisia through conference presentations in Domestic Finance 117

124 Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- schemes in a number of countries, including Brazil, Gerard Caprio Jr. (gcaprio@worldbank.org) and Patrick Namihia, and the Russian Fcdcration. Honohan. Responsibility: Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department-Luc laeven (llaeven@worldbank.org). Report World Bank Pinanetfor Growth: Polio Choires in a Volatile lvorld. Report World Bank Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford [ini- Lacven, LI,c "Pricing of Deposit Insurance." Policy Rese.arch versitv Press. WNorking Paper WVorld Bank, Financial Sector Stratcgv and PolicN Department, Washington, D.C. Pricing of Deposit Insurance Cross-country research on law and finance has estab- lished that laws have a tangiblc and important impact on markets, growth, and development. This study invcsti- gates the role of the regulation of acquisition activity, which has great policy relevance for emerging markct economies. Corporate control transactions are among the chief sources of increases in corporate value as man- agers and owners seek efficiency gains and synergies. These gains are greater in emerging market economies, where markets are arguably less complete. At the same time the laws to ensture that newly created value is shared with minority investors are less strict (and lcss strictly enforced) in such economies. Poor protection of minor- ity investor value, by lowering demand for listed sharcs by dispersed owners, can lead to less developed stock markets. NIany countries have recently implemented, or plan to implement, deposit insurance schemes. The design of these financial safety nets differs across countries, most importantly in the terms of coverage. Countries introducing explicit deposit insurance must decide which types of deposits to insure and up to what amount, which banks may participate, who should manage and own the deposit insurance fund, and at what levels to set the deposit insurance premiums. Given the potential contingent liabilities to the government of an underfunded deposit insurance system, it is important to set deposit insurance premiums so as to align banks' incentives with the government's objectives. This study has developed several methodologies that can be used to set benchmarks for the pricing of deposit insurance in a country and quantify how specific design features affect the cost of such insurance. Applying these methodologies to a large sample of banks in different countries, it has assessed how country- and Securities Laws and Financial Development: Investor Protection at Acquisition Time across the World bank-specific characteristics contribute to the cost of Through a comparative cross-country analvsis of 30 deposit insurance. Results show that diversifying and countries with relatively developed securities markets, differentiating risk within a deposit insurance system the study is examining the role of minority protection regcan reduce the price of deposit insurance. They also ulations in determining the breadth and depth of stock show that deposit insurance is underpriced in many markets. It is exploring the effects of individual regiilacountries. tions, their substitutability and interplay, and the extent Importantly, estimates suggest that many countries of protection of minority investor value. 'I'hc stlidv is also cannot afford deposit insurance. And deposit insurance investigating the effects on firm value of corporate govis unlikely to be a viable option in a country with weak ernance mechanisms such as mandatory tender offcrs and banks and institutions. The research shows that for coun- equal pricing provisions. Results should shed light on tries that have decided to prefund deposit insurance, which regulations are "good" for investors and for private pricing it as accurately as possible is important. sector growvth. The methods developed by the research have been The study draws on existing data on countries' used to assess the viability of the proposed pricing takeover regulations and national sccurities and corpo- 118 Domesiit Finance

125 rate laws; stock market data from annual reports of stock approaches should be taken to an extreme. But while exchanges and the World Bank's World Development none of the three big flat tax reform ideas provides a com- Indicators database; and firm performance measures plete and practical solution, each has lessons for a good from Datastream, Moodys, and Worldscope. system. After completion of the study, findings will be * Even if practicalities impede the introduction of a distributed to stock market regulators in all World Bank value added tax on financial services, the notion of such member countries. They will also be disseminated within a tax represents a useful benchmark for comparing the the World Bank, where they will be useful in financial burden and impact of existing and proposed indirect sector assessments. taxes. Responsibility: Investment Climate Unit, World Bank- * Significant financial transactions taxes are hard to I'atiana Nenova (tnenova@worldbank.org). justify on theoretical grounds and should be resorted to only as a transitory device when fiscal revenue is under Taxation of Financial Intermediation particular pressure. * Heavy emphasis on the taxation of capital income The recent adoption in several countries of special finan- should be avoided. cial transactions taxes, quickly yielding a substantial Attempts at corrective taxation should be undertaken impact, refocused attention on financial sector taxation with extreme caution, as history suggests that unmore generally. Many commentators have criticized intended side-effects or deadweight losses may dominate financial sector taxes as arbitrary and distorting. But a basic the results. Both case studies and analytic research sugframework for judging these issues has been lacking, ham- gest that policymakers instead should focus on avoiding pering policy advice and allowing costly policy errors. two traps into which financial sector taxation can fall: the This research project set out to develop a framework sector's unique capacity for arbitrage and its sensitivity for thinking about financial sector taxation with the aim to inflation and thus to nonindexed taxes. All financial of leading to guidelines for a good tax system-one that, sector taxes need to be designed to be as arbitrage- and so far as is possible, corrects known distortions, minimizes inflation-proof as possible. the distortions it imposes, and does not push tax collec- Though technical, the recommendations of the study tion from the financial sector beyond the point where mar- could make a significant development contribution given ginal distorting costs exceed those elsewhere in the the importance of an effective financial sector to sustained economy. growth. The messages from the research are beginning The study had three main parts. Two analytic papers to be applied in the World Bank's financial sector adjustset out the positive and normative theory of financial sec- ment programs. tor taxation. A fact-finding exercise described financial The research findings were presented at a confersector taxation in advanced economies. And six papers ence held at the Central Bank of Chile for policylooked at the most important and controversial specific makers and the research and financial community in issues in financial sector taxation today. December They were also presented in a World The project's findings provide a framework for assess- Bank Institute Global Dialogue session linking Ankara, ing the many proposals for tax policy reform affecting the Brasilia, Kiev, Mexico City, and Washington, D.C., in April financial sector. Such proposals are typically aimed either at simplification-usually some form of "flat tax" (includ- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance ing a value added tax on financial services, a universal -Patrick Honohan (phonohan@worldbank.org) and transactions tax, or zero taxation on capital income)-or Anqing Shi. With Michael Keen, Andrei Kirilenko, at subtle corrective taxation to offset market failures in Victoria Summers, Karl Habermeier, and Emil Sunley, the financial sector or to achieve other targeted objectives. International Monetary Fund; Robin Boadway, Queens The study concludes that neither of these reform University, Kingston, Canada; Tullio Jappelli, Salerno Domestic Finance 119

126 University, Italy; Philip Brock, University of Washington, countries, corporations in Mexico have relied far more on Seattle; Ramon Caminal, Universitat Aut6noma de debt than equity issuance in the past few years. Barcelona; Eliana Cardoso, Georgetown University; A comparison of fees across countries shows that Brigitte Granville, Royal Institute for International Affairs, investment banking fees clearly dominate the total costs. London; Mattias Levin and Peer Ritter, Centre for Euro- In Chile, however, the issuance tax is just as large as the pean Policy Studies, Brussels; and Satya Poddar, Ernst investment banking fee. In all three countries companies & Young, Canada. The International Monetary Fund pay investment banks more for their services in issuing contributed staff time to the research. equity than for their services in issuing dcbt. The differences in cost across the three countries and Reports across instruments suggest that cost should be a factor Honohan, Patrick "Avoiding the Pitfalls in Taxing Finan- in firms' decisions about security issuance. But in Chile cial Intermediation." Policy Research Working Paper and Mexico at least, the nature of the investor base World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. appears to be an overwhelming factor in determining - Forthcoming. "Alternative Approaches to Taxing the which companies can access domestic capital markets. Finance Sector: Which Is Best and Where Does Chile Stand?" In these markets, where pension funds are typically the In J. Rodrigo Fuentes and Luis Antonio Ahumada, eds., largest source of finance, the credit quality of the firm or Banking Industry and Monetary Policy Transmission. Series on issue is what matters most. This finding suggests a need Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies. Santiago: for further investigation into the effect of investment Central Bank of Chile. restrictions for institutional investors on the development - 1,ed Taxation of FinancialIntennediation: Theory andprac- of local capital markets. In international capital markets ticefor Emerging Economies. New York: Oxford University Press. size is more important in determining which firms can gain access to capital, for cost and liquidity reasons. Transaction Costs in Raising Capital Findings will be presented at the World Bank and at universities and other institutions (such as the Federal This study documents the transaction costs that devel- Reserve Bank of Atlanta). The data collected by the oping country firms face when issuing debt and equity study are already being used in World Bank operations, in domestic markets or abroad. It gathered cost data including a recent financial sector adjustment program from the Web sites of stock exchanges and regulatory in Chile. The project's methodology and questionnairc bodies, from Bloomberg and Bondware, and through will be used in financial sector operations relating to questionnaire-based telephone interviews with regula- capital markets, in collecting data to benchmark the tors, securities lawyers, investment bankers, and company costs of raising capital in a country and to offer internaofficers (typically chief financial officers). The study tional comparisons to country officials. They will also be focuses on the transaction costs for firms in three used in a broader data collection effort to be undertaken countries-brazil, Chile, and Mexico. jointly with the Development Economics Senior Vice For Brazilian firms the cost of issuing debt locally or Presidency, where the data will be used to further study abroad is almost the same; while the legal costs of the effect of costs on firms' issuance and access to international issuance are much higher, the investment capital. banking costs are much lower. Chilean firms can issue Responsibility: Financial Sector Operations and Policy Departdebt more cheaply abroad because of the 1.6 percent ment-sara J. Zervos (szervos@worldbank.org). issuance tax at home. Domestically it is much cheaper to issue equity than debt, but few Chilean firms have Report done so in the past 10 years, and corporate debt issuance Zervos, Sara J. "The Transaction Costs of Primary Issuance: 'Ilhe has continued to climb. Mexican firms can issue debt at Case of Brazil, Chile and Nlexico." World Bank, Financial a low cost domestically and abroad. As in the other two Sector Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. 120 Domestic Finance

127 Twin Crises and Government Policy Aires (1999 and 2000); World Bank-Universidad Torcuato Di Tella Conference on Integration and Contagion, In the post-bretton Woods era exchange rate crises have Buenos Aires (1999); Banco de Portugal Conference on often coincided with banking crises-as in Chile in 1982, Monetary Economics, Guimaraes, Portugal (2000); Cen- Finland and Sweden in 1992, NMexico in 1994, and South- tre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Conference east Asia in This research project investigated on Exchange Rates and Prices in General Equilibrium, such twin banking and currency crises, examining the Barcelona (2000); NBER Conference on Management of mechanisms by which banking crises cause and exacer- Currency Crises, Cambridge, Massachusetts (2000), and bate currency crises and the channels through which Monterey, California (2001); NBER Economic Fluctucurrency crises cause banking crises. The research focused ations and Growth Meeting (2000); NBER International particularly on the role of foreign exchange exposure in Seminar on Macroeconomics, Bank of Finland, Helsinki these crises and on explaining the causes and conse- (2000); Texas Monetary Conference (2000); CESifo Sumqucnces of this exposure. mer Institute, Venice (2001); Dubrovnik Economic The research found that government guarantees Conference, Croatia (2001); and Middle East Technical issued to bank creditors can explain the lack of hedging University, Economic Research Center International against currency risk that is seen in emerging markets Conference on Economics, Ankara (2001). despite the availability of hedging products. Models The research results form the basis for ongoing work developed by the study show how this lack of hedging in the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management can lead to the possibility of self-fulfilling speculative Network's Economic Policy Division as well as part of a attacks against managed exchange rate regimes. Even course the division provided for World Bank economists when the standard fundamentals in an economy are per- in fiscal fectlv sound, lack of hedging driven by government Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Manageguarantees exposes the economy to random shifts in ment Network, Economic Policy Division-Craig investor sentiment. Burnside. With Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, and '[he study developed a simple model that can be Yuliya Mescheryakova, Northwestern University. used to show how crises driven by agents' self-fulfilling expectations of future government deficits are consistent Reports with low inflation-but rapid currency depreciation-in Burnside, Craig "Currency Crises and Contingent Liabilities." the wake of a twin banking and currency crisis. Moreover, World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management preliminary analyses of the Republic of Korea and Mex- Network, Economic Policy Division, Washington, D.C. ico in their postcrisis periods found that neither has paid. Forthcoming. "On Contingent Liabilities and the Likefor as much as 50 percent of the fiscal costs associated lihood of Fiscal Crises." Comparative Economic Studies. with their banking sector bailouts. Both countries have Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo relied on new borrowing for financing in the short run. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate 'Ihe postcrisis outcomes for inflation in these countries Regimes." European Economic Review 45: can be rationalized by making assumptions about their On thefiscalimplications of Twin Crises. NBER Workfuture financing choices. ing Paper Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Results have been presented at a large number of Research. (Also published in Michael Dooley and Jeffrey A. seminars and conferences attended by academics, Frankel, eds., Managing CurrenTv Crises in Emerging Markets, policvmakers, and World Bank economists. These include Chicago: tuniversity of Chicago Press, 2003.) seminars at many universities and the following events: "Government Guarantees and Self-Fulfilling National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Sum- Speculative Attacks." World Bank, Poverty Reduction and mer Institute (1999); UJniversidad Torcuato Di Tella Economic Management Network, Economic Policy Division, Summer Camp in International Economics, Buenos Washington, D.C. Domestic Finance 121

128 The study's analytic strategy is being used by World have Mexico's programs for small and medium-size enter- Bank staff to examine the growth potential of lagging prises been? Which program features matter? And how regions in Brazil, the differentiated role of cities in have the programs affected firms' performantc in pronational economic growth in India, and productivity dif- ductivity growth, wages, and joh creation? ferences between the lagging South in Mexico and the 'To identify the effect of program participation, the study compares the performance of beneficiaries with that rest of the country. Findings have been disseminated at the ttnited of a control group of nonbeneficiaries with otherwise Nations University, World Institute for Development similar attributes. It uses a variety of econometric mnethods Economics Research conference on spatial inequalities -including propensity score matching and differencein Asia in March 2003 and at the Regional Science in-differences methods-to address selection bias. 'I'he Association Mleetings in Philadelphia in November analysis draws on firm-level panel data from the 1992, Other dissemination activities are planned, including 1995, 1999, and 20(01 National Surveys of Eimployment, presentations at workshops in India with participation Salaries, Technology, and T'raining (ENESTYC) and from other developing countries. annual industrial surveys for It also uses Responsibility: Development Research Group, Infrastruc- firm-level data collected by the Ministry of Labor for ture and Environment-Somik V. Lall (slall@ evaluations in 1995 and 1997 of a program providing worldbank.org). With Sanjoy Chakravorty, Temple integrated training and support services for small and luniversity; and Kyojun Koo, Cleveland State medium-size enterprises (the Program for Integral Qtuality and NModernization, or CIMO). These data follow _Tniversity. samples of CINIO beneficiaries and a matched conmparison group over time. 'I'he data are complemented by case Reports Chakravorty. Sanjoy, Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall "Nlctro- studies. detailed field interviews, and collection of politan Industrial (luisters: Patterns and Processes." Policy information relating to the programs. Research NVorking Paper World Bank, Development Although the research is incomplete, preliminary find- Rcscarch Group, Washington, D.C. (Also forthcoming in ings show that heterogeneity in firms' underlying productivity attributes coupled with self-selection in Fnvironment and Planning.) Lall, Somik V., and Sanjoy Chakravorty. Forthcoming. "Industrial program participation can severely bias program impact Location and Spatial Inequality: Theory and Evidence from evaluations. For examplc, the CINlIO program appears to India." Rev'iewa of Development Economics. attract weaker firms compared with similar nonpartici- Iall, Somik V, Jun Koo, and Sanjoy Chakravorty "Diversity pants. Thus while CINIO firms show positive treatment Matters: 'I'he Economic Geography of Industry Location in effects-more training, reduced labor turnover, India." Policy Research WVorking Papcr World Bank, Dehclopmcnt Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Evaluating Mexico's Small and Medium-Size Enterprise Programs Many industrial and developing countries have intro- duced programs for small and medium-size enterprises favorable, in ; they were not statistically signif- icant in as a resuilt of the recession in Mexico. 'rhe research has also ftound that rctrospective surveys coupled with purposive sampling of program partici- (SMEs) aimed at enhancing productivity and wages, creating new jobs, and promoting exports. But few have rigorously evaluated the effectiveness of these programs. This study investigates this issue, focusing on programs in M\exico. It addresses several questions: How effective adoption of quality control-postprogram productivity levels remain below those of the comparison group. Once the selection bias is recognized, the negative estimate of program impact becomes positive. Macroeconomic shocks can also adversely affect program evaluations. For the CINIO program positive difference-in-differenecs estimates of program impact are found only when macroeconomic conditions were 124 Industry and Privofe Sectir Development

129 pants are a potentially useful way of collecting panel Global Business School Network Capacity data for evaluating programs. and Needs Assessment: Seven Sub-Saharan 'I'hc project involves working closely with government African Countries agcnicics responsible for SNIE programs in Mexico-the Nlinistrics of Labor, Economy, Poverty, and Science and A vibrant, competitive postsecondary education system '1'.: 1,l.! -[disseminate good practices in program is critical in building a workforce with the skills, knowlevaluation methods and to upgrade their evaluation edge, and attitudes to create and manage new busicapabilities. nesses, to privatize and restructure existing enterprises, 'I'hc research is expected to contribute to the litera- and to regulate business activity effectively-all ture on impact evaluations of SME programs and to elements of a robust private sector. In Sub-Saharan policv insights into which types of such programs are most Africa, however, graduate management schools face effective in improving firm performance. myriad obstacles-a nascent private sector, far too few The rcsearch methods and preliminary findings have qualified faculty members, marginal primary and been prcsented in several forums for academics and secondary preparation, and historical ambivalence or policymakers, including a labor market conference even antagonism between higher education and the priorganized bv the tjniversitv of Capetown's Develop- vate sector. With few exceptions, graduate management ment Policv Research ttnit and the Friedrich Ebert programs in Sub-Saharan Africa are unable to Stiftunlg in Johannesburg (October 2002); a workshop on compete with institutions in the West and thus cannot evaluating SME programs in Mexico City (November attract the best local students or faculty. 2(002): a World Bank Institute core course on labor To provide an understanding of the dynamic social, market policies in WVashington, D.C. (NMarch 2003); an political, and economic environments in which graduate investment climate workshop in Sri Lanka (December management schools in Sub-Saharan Africa must oper- 2003); an impact evaluation training workshop in ate and compete, this project performed a baselinc assess- Casablanca (January 2004, for government policymakers ment of such schools in seven countries-cameroon, from Algeria, Mlorocco, and Tunisia); and an impact Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, 'ltanzania, and cvaluation training workshop in Mexico City (April 2004, tjganda. In each country the assessment gathered basic for government staff and academics from Mexico and facts about the capacity of the business schools and Latin America). The research will also be incorporated established the country context in which they operate, into training courses for WVorld Bank staff and client their relationship with the local business community, Countrics. and what might be done to move the institutions to self- Responsibility: World Bank Institute, Human Development sustainability and increase their academic capacity. The Division-Hong 'Fan (htan@worldbank.org); and Latin conceptual framework used was the input, environment, Armerica and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Sector and outcome (I-E-O) model, which ensures the assess- Unit-Gladys Lopez-Acevedo. With Roberto Flores- ment of these three critical variables as well as the Lima; Nlarcela Rubio Sanchez; and Monica Tinajero, relationships between them. government of NMexico. The Mlexican Mlinistries of Econ- The assessment collected qualitative and quantitative omy and Labor and the National Institute for Statistics, data to evaluate the functioning of each institution Geography, and Information Systems (INEGI) are col- (matriculation rates, financial and other resources, factilty laborating in the research. capabilities, course offerings, private sector links, and the like) and also considered broader reputational concep- Report tions of performance. The assessment then compared 'Tan. -long "Evaluating SNIE Programs: A Case Study of these data against the stated goals and missions of Nlcxico's CIN1() Program." Wi7BI Working Paper. World Bank the institution and the needs of the community it IlStituteC, ashington, D.C. serves. Ifidusiry and Private Sector Development 125

130 Across the 22 institutions surveyed, several sets of sim "Assessment of Graduate NManagement Education ilarities emerge. Public business schools often face the in Nigeria." University of Michigan Business School, William same kinds of institutional constraints and pressures, Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. including scarcity of funding, difficulty in attracting and "Assessment of Graduate Management Education retaining high-caliber faculty, and challenges in achiev- in Senegal." University of Mlichigan Business School, William ing the optimal level of autonomy. Private institutions also Davidson Institute. Ann Arbor. often cited the challenge (though less severe) of retain "Assessment of Graduate Management Education ing high-quality instructors. in South Africa." University of Michigan Business School. The study found a wide range among the schools- William Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. from those that can rank with top schools in Europe and "Assessment of Graduate Nlanagement Education the United States (mainly those in South Africa) to those in 'I'anzania." University of Michigan Business School, William with very few resources. The schools also differ in the Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. types of students they enroll. The more advanced schools "Assessment of Graduate Nlanagement Education insist that students have prior business experience, while in tiganda." tjniversity of Nlichigan Business School, William others accept relatively inexperienced students. Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. Some local businesses felt that the graduates lacked sufficient experience and training to be taken straight into man- Investment Climate Research agement positions, although the same firms also indicated a clear need for well-trained managers in their country. This research program collects data from firms through Reports on the assessment results were shared with investment climate surveys and then uses the data to the universities and distributed widely within the World examine a range of issues and hypotheses, including the Bank Group. The findings have assisted in developing impact of education on worker productivity, the impact the Global Business School Network's approach to capac- of corruption on firm investment and productivity, and ity building of management education and initial pilot the sources of productivity differences more generally projects in Africa. across firms and countries. By involving leading Responsibility: Global Business School Network-Guy P. researchers in developing and implementing the sur- Pfeffermann (gpfeffermann@ifc.org). With Azam veys, the program ensures policy-relevant research. NIore Chaudhry; E. LaBrent Chrite, Jose Arredondo, Naresh than 30 surveys have been completed, and 20 more arc lyer, Matthieu Garnier, Kaluke Mawila, Priya Naik, and under way or planned. The surveys have led to 16 invest- Robert Schneider, University of Michigan; and Richard ment climate assessments-in such countries as Cam- America, Georgetown University. bodia, Ethiopia, India, Morocco, Pakistan, Serbia and Montenegro, and Tanzania-and 16 more are under way. Reports The research is rich and diverse, consistent with the Arredondo, Jose, Naresh Iyer, Matthieu Garnier, Kaluke Nlawila, range of issues covered in the surveys, and is expected Priya Naik, and Robert Schneider "Assessment of Grad- to produce novel and policy-relevant findings for years. uate Management Education: Executive Summary." Univer- Some of the important findings that have emerged sity of Michigan Business School, William Davidson Institute, include the following: Ann Arbor. * The data underscore the importance of local "Assessment of Graduate Management Education governance, revealing tremendous differences in invcstin Cameroon." University of Michigan Business School, William ment climates not just across countries but within themr. Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. For example, improving the local investment climate to "Assessment of Graduate Management Education match that in Shanghai would boost firm productivity bv in Ghana." University of Michigan Business School, William an average 18 percent in Bangalore, 43 percent in Dhaka, Davidson Institute, Ann Arbor. 78 percent in Calcutta, and 81 percent in Karachi. 126 Industry and Private Sector Development

131 * Recognizing the important association between Driemeier; Africa Region, Private Sector Family-Jean exporting and higher productivity, the surveys investi- Michel Marchat and Vijaya Ramachandran; East Asia gate how firms have been able to move from serving local and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic markets to serving export markets. Among five East Management Sector Department-Albert Zeufack; Latin Asian countries, the more developed the country, the America and the Caribbean Region, Private Sector greater the number of firms making the transition and Cluster-Luke Haggarty; and World Bank Institute, simultaneously serving domestic and export markets. Global Governance Unit-Francesca Recanatini. With But in the less developed countries firms gain access to Scott Wallsten; Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford University; export markets largely through entry. Few firms make the Raymond Fisman, Columbia Business School; Omkar transition: most focus on either local or foreign markets. Goswami, Confederation of Indian Industries; Ann * Firms are aware of and able to estimate the effects Harrison, University of California at Berkeley; and John of the investment climate they face. Entrepreneurs in Sutton, London School of Economics. India, asked how much their costs would change if their business were located in other cities across the country, Reports gave estimates very close to the actual productivity Cull, Robert, and L. Colin Xu "Contract Enforcement, differentials. Ownership, and Finance: Determinants of Investment in * The data bring out firms' reliance on different China." World Bank, Developmenr Research Group, Washsources of capital and the effects of changes in access to ington, D.C. these sources. The usual presumption is that trade credit Dollar, David, and Mary Hallward-Driemeier "Crisis, Adjustcan substitute for more formal bank credit. But data ment, and Reform in Thai Industry." WVorld Bank Research from East Asia show that trade credit does not fully sub- Obsener 15(1): stitute for bank credit and cannot sustain the operations Dollar, David, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Taye Nlengistae. of firms constrained by banks "Investment Climate and Firm Performance in Devel- Findings have been incorporated into country assis- oping Countries." World Bank, Development Research Group, tance strategies for Algeria, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Mozam- Washington, D.C. bique, Nepal, and Nigeria, and investment climate "Investment Climate, Infrastructure, and Trade: assessments and related surveys have informed 26 lend- A Comparison of Latin America and Asia." World Bank, Develing operations, mostly in Africa and Latin America. In opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. most countries the investment climate work has received Dollar, David, Giuseppe larossi, and Taye Mengistae "Investtremendous press attention. ment Climate and Economic Performance: Some Firm-Level The data are being made available to many scholars, Evidence from India." Working Paper 143. Stanford University, by diskette and through a Web site. The development Center for Research on Economic Development and Policy of a sophisticated new Web site (at Reform, Stanford, Calif..worldbank.org/ics/jsp/index.jsp) will substantially expand Dwor-Frecaut, Dominique, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and access to the data, especially in developing countries. Francis X. Cola,o "Corporate Credit Needs and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Investment Governance." Paper presented at the World Bank Conference Climate-David Dollar (ddollari@worldbank.org), Ibrahim on Asian Corporate Recovery: Corporate Governance, Elbadawi, Giuseppe larossi, Philip Keefer, Taye Mengis- Government Policy, Bangkok, March 31-April 2. tae, and Lixin Colin Xu; Investment Climate Unit, Office Elbadawi, Ibrahim, Taye Mengistae, and Albert Zeufack of the Director-Neil Roger, Foreign Investment 1- "Geography, Supplier Access, Foreign Nlarket Potential, and Geeta Batra, Monitoring, Analysis, and Policy Manufacturing Exports in Developing Countries: An Analysis -Simeon Djankov, and Investment Climate-John of Firm-Level Data." World Bank, Washington, D.C. Nasir and Andrew Stone; Development Economics, Fafchamps, Marcel, Said El Hamine, and Albert Zeufack World Development Report Office-Mary Hallward- "Learning to Export: Firm-Level Evidence from NMorocco." Indusfry and Private Sector Development 127

132 Paper presented at the conference on New Industrial Realities The empirical model is a set of reduced-form equaand Firm Behavior in Africa, St. Edmunds Hall, Oxford, September. Goswami, Omkar, and David Dollar "'l'he Competitiveness of Indian Nlanufacturing: Results from a Firm-Level Survey." Confederation of Indian Industry, New Delhi. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary "Firm-Level Survey Provides Data on Asia's Corporate Crisis and Recovery." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, and David Stewart 'Getting What You Pay For? Bribes and the Decision to Invest." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Hallward-Driemeier, Mary, Giuseppe larossi, and Kenneth Sokoloff. tions based on a theoretical model that describes a firm's dynamic decisions to export, to invest in R&D or worker training (or both), and to exit. 'IThe study models the firm's joint decisions to export and invest in R&D or worker training with a multinomial logit model that recognizes the interdependence of the decisions. It then estimates how participation in these investment activities alters the firm's future productivity trajectory while controlling for the selection bias introduced by endogenous firm exit. The findings show, for both Korea and 'Iaiwan (China), that past experience in exporting increases the likelihood that a firm currently exports. In Korea past experience in R&D also has lasting effects on a firm's investment Exports andmaanufacturi ngproductivity in EastAsia: A Com- decisions. These results are consistent with the belief that parativeanalysis with Firmn-LIve/Data. NBER Working Paper Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. Hallward-Driemeicr, Mary, L. Colin Xu, and Scott Wallsten "The Investment Climate and the Firm: Firm-Level Evidence from China." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Kawai, Nlasahiro, Hongjoo Hahm, and Giuseppe larossi "Corporare Foreign Borrowing in East Asia: 'roo Much, Too Little?"PaperpresentedattheWorldBank ConferenceonAsian Corporate Recovery: Corporate Governance, Government Policy, Bangkok, March 31-April 2. Love, Inessa, and Rida Zaidi "Trade Credit and Financing Constraints: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. The Roles of Foreign Contact and Firm Capability in Firms' Dynamic Productivity This study investigates a firm's decision to invest in two sources of knowledge-participation in the export mar- ket and investments in capability measured by research and development (R&D) and worker training-and assesses the effects of these investments on the firm's contacts with foreign buyers through exporting and investments in capabilities are less costly for firms that have already incurred some necessary sunk costs. In addition, the results indicate that largcr firms and more productive firms are more likely to participate in each activity. 'I'he findings also suggest that, on average, Korean firms that either export or perform R&D have signifi- cantly higher future productivity than firms that do neither-and those that do both have significantly higher future productivity than firms that only export or only invest in R&D. (Results for Taiwanese firms arc more mixed because of a five-year gap in the clata series.) These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that export experience is an important source of productiv- ity growth and that investing in R&D improves firms' ability to benefit from exposure to the export market. Responsibility: Investment Climate ttnit, Foreign Invest- ment 1-Geeta Batra (gbatra@worldbank.org). With Bee Yan AwT and Mlark J. Roberts, Pennsylvania State University. future total factor productivity. The analysis uses micro- As, Bee Yan, Gcera Barra, and Nlark j. Robcrts. ["he Rolcs of Foreconomic panel data for firms in key manufacturing eign Contact and Firm Capability in Firms' I)ynamic ProduLcindustries in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan (China) tivity." WNorld Bank. Invcstmcnt Climate l!nit, Washington, for Report L).C. 128 Industry and Private Sertor Development

133 Governance and Public Sector Mananement Corporate Governance older people are more averse to corruption. It also provides evidence that social effects play an important part Corporate governance has received much attention in in determining individual attitudes toward corruption, as rccent years. especially for firms in emerging market these are robustly and significantly associated with the economics. As firms in these economies have continued average level of tolerance of corruption in a region. TFhis to attract foreign institutional investors, the protection finding lends empirical support to theoretical models in of minority sharcholders has become increasingly impor- which corruption emerges in multiple equilibriums and tant. Mlan improvements to corporate govcrnance frame- suggests that "big push" policies might be particularly works have been proposed-and sometimes, with the effective in combating corruption. support of international financial institutions, imple- Another analysis looks at corruption and openness. It mented. But our understanding of the implications of finds that when outlier countries such as Singapore are ownership and corporate govcrnance frameworks-and excluded from the sample, there is no conclusive evidence of the uni(lue corporate governance challenges- that open countries are less corrupt. in emerging markct economies remains limited. A third analysis examines the role of trade tariffs, This project will study the role of corporate governance explicitly accounting for the interaction between in improving firms' performance and the cost of and importers and corrupt customs officials. It argues that setaccess to financing. 'I'he analysis will be based on empir- ting tariffs at a uniform level not only limits the ability ical data collected through surveys of firms in more than of public officials to misclassify imported goods and 40 developing and transition economies by private invest- thereby extract bribes from importers, but also can deliver ment banks and \World Bank consultants. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Finance- Leora Klapper (lklapper@worldbank.org) and Inessa Love; and Financial Sector Opcrations and Policy Departmcnt-Luc Laevcn. With Reena \ 'ieri" d and Sandeep Dahiya, Georgetown I iniversitv, *MlcDonough School of Busincss; and Peter D. Wvsocki, Nlassachusetts Institute of 'l'echnology, Sloan School of Nlanagement. Corruption Corruption has been shown to bc a substantial impediment to development in poor countries. This ongoing projcct is analyzing the causes of corruption in order to identify effective policies to combat it. The work builds on existing theorctical models of corruption and uses state-of-theart empirical estimation tcchniques to asscss its determinants. An analysis of social effects uses individual-level data for 35 countrics to investigate the microcconomic determinants of attitudes toward corruption. It consistently finds that womcn, the cmployed, the less wvealthy, and higher government revenues and welfare than a Ramsey tariff structure when corruption is pervasive. The empirical evidence suggests that a highly diversified menu of trade tariffs might fuel corruption, as a significant and robust association between an appropriately computed measure of tariff diversification and corruption in customs emerges across countries. Papers produced by the project have been presented at the WVorld Bank, a Southeastern Economic Association conference in Washington, D.C., and a European Public Choice Society conference in Italy. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- nomics and Growth-Roberta Gatti (rgatti@worldbank.org); and Poverty Reduction and Economic Mlanagemcnt Network, Poverty Reduction Group-Stefano Paternostro. With Jamele Rigolini, New lork Utniversity. Reports Gatti, Roberta "Corruption and Trade Tariffs, or a Case for UIniform Tariffs." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Devclopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. 129

134 --. "Explaining Corruption: Are Open Countries More Report Corrupt?" World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Easterly, William, Roberta Gatti, and Sergio Kurlat "Develington, D.C. Draft. Gatti, Roberta, Stefano Paternostro, and Jamele Rigolini opment, Democracy, and Mass Killings." Paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Associa- "Individual Attitudes toward Corruption: Do Social Effects tion, San Francisco, August 29-September 2. Mlatter?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group and Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Development, Democracy, and State Violence The 20th century closed with many lamenting govern- ment killings of defenseless civilians as its greatest evil. By one estimate governments killed as many as 170 million civilians between 1900 and 1987-more than all planning. By contrast, Indonesia has been mainly autothe soldiers killed in the wars of the 20th century. This project looks at the relationship between devel- opment, democracy, and state violence. It has surveyed a broad literature on state violence and collected data on both the incidence of events (a dummy variable for whether state violence took place in the country and year indicated) and estimates of numbers of victims. Using a drawn from a qualitative and quantitative survey ofpannewly assembled data set spanning , it has stud- chayats (village governments) coupled with facilities suried the relationship between the occurrence and cruelty of episodes of mass killing and the levels of development discussions, focus group discussions, and in-depth interand democracy across countries and over time. The research finds that massacres are more likely at intermediate levels of income and less likely at very high levels of democracy. Interestingly, discrete improve- ments in an index of democracy do not translate into a lower chance of massacres unless the countries move to the highest level of democracy. The study finds evidence that the number of victims is significantly collected in 166 villages in three provinces for an evallower in more democratic countries, especially in the 20th century. This work complements other World Bank research lected through a baseline and follow-up survey in treaton political violence, particularly the Development Research Group's project on the Economics of Political and Criminal Violence. Newly collected data are being prepared for dissem- ination in Stata format. Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macroeco- nomics and Growth-William Easterly and Roberta Gatti. With Sergio Kurlat. Does Democracy Help the Poor? Comparing Democratic Decentralization and Community-Based Development in India and Indonesia This project will compare the effectiveness of local gov- ernments in India and Indonesia in providing services that benefit the poor. India has pursued local-level democ- racy but a largely top-down approach to development cratic at the local level, but its development planning has specifically incorporated community-based approaches since its independence five decades ago. The comparative analysis will mix qualitative and quantitative methods in the context of evaluation designs and natural experiments. The data for India will be veys, household surveys, participatory rural appraisal views, along with transcripts from village-level meet- ings between leaders and constituents to discuss village development plans. The villages have been matched between culturally and historically similar regions that, through an accident of boundary drawing, ended up in different states. The data for Indonesia will include panel data being uation of a community-driven development project (the Second Urban Poverty Project). These data will be col- ment and matched control communities using methods similar to those for the panchayat survey in India. The data set will include qualitative data tracking changes in vil- lage government and collective action over three years. The study will also draw on additional panel data from 48 villages. Another source of information will be a natural exper- iment. In India the election commission randomly selects 130 Governance and Public Sector Management

135 30 percent of panchavats to have their presidencies * Listed firms performed better when they had a reserved for women. And in Indonesia the Second Urban balance of power between top shareholders. Poverty Project involves randomly selecting 30 percent * Firms' performance can be improved by lessening of the village committees formed for managing project political control, increasing their flexibility in deploying funds to be headed by women. 'T'his will allow the study labor, and mitigating agency costs through the introto test whether affirmative action helps ensure that duction of more effective corporate governance mechawomen are included in village governance. nisms such as one share, one vote and a board structure The project will produce tool kits for conducting based on shareholding. mixed method evaluations, which will be used in WVorld * Ownership structure affects firms' performance: Bank Institutc courses. Research results will feed directly compared with shareholding by the state, foreign owninto operational projects in the World Bank's South Asia ership has a positive effect on firms' performance, indiand East Asia and Pacific Regions, improving work on vidual (mostly employee) shareholding has a negative community-driven development and decentralization. effect, and collective and legal person shareholding has The research project will be implemented by local an indistinguishable effect. consultants, who will receive extensive training in *Somewhat surprisingly, operating autonomy (excludconducting mixed method evaluations and qualitative ing flexibility in deploying labor) has a negative effect analysis. on firms' performance, suggesting serious agency prob- Responsibility: Development Research Group, Poverty lems in the reformed enterprises. Team-Vijayendra Rao (vrao@cworldbank.org); and East * Investment by private firms is affected by endoge- Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and nous harassment by government officials. Economic Nlanagement Sector Department-Vivi Alatas The research has assisted policymakers and World and Mienno Pradhan. With Tim Besley, London School Bank staff in formulating transition policies in China of Economics; and Rohini Pande, Yale U Jniversity. 'I'he and contributed to a 2003 World Bank country economic World Bank-Netherlands Partnership Program is memorandum for China. It has also provided inputs into providing funding for data collection. an investment climate report on China (David Dollar, Shuilin Wang, Lixin Colin Xu, and Anqing Shi, Improv- Firm Ownership and Corporate Governance in China ing City Competitiveness through the Investment Climate: Ranking 23 Chinese Cities, Beijing: Finance and Econom- This research project examines several questions ics Publishing House, forthcoming) and a recently pubrelating to firm ownership and corporate governance in lished book (Linqun Jin and Nicholas Stern, eds., China: How did changes in ownership and corporate Economic Development: Theories and Practices, Beijing: governance affect the performance of Chinese firms? Economic Science Press, 2002). What wcre the effects of the wave of privatization and Results have been presented at the annual meeting corporatization in 1997? And how does corruption affect of the Chinese Economists Society in Hong Kong (China) investment by private firms? in 2002; an American Economic Association meeting in 'T'he study has assembled three data sets: data on Washington, D.C., in 2003; and at the Global Finance around 1,000 publicly listed firms for , data on Meeting at Beijing University in the ownership restructuring of around 1,000 firms in Responsibility: Development Research Group, Regula , and data on 3,000 private firms for Using tion and Competition Policy-Lixin Colin Xu (lxul@ these data, the study has empirically tested hypotheses worldbank.org). With Tian Zhu, Hong Kong Univerderived from existing theories. Trhe analysis has led to sity of Science and Technology; Xiaozu Wang, six main findings: Fudan University, China; and Wei Li, University of * Public listing does not turn around the performance Virginia. of state-owned enterprises. Governance and Public Sector Management 131

136 Reports investments, even when they are despcrate to bc i. Wci,T'l'ing Lu, and Lixin Colin Xu "Does Bribe Grease reelected and can provide more benefits to a larger Corrupt Bureaucrats?" World Bank, Development Research number of citizens by allocating resources to the public Group, Washington, D.C. good? Research shows that where voters arc uninformcd WN'ang, Xiaozu, Lixin Colin Xu, and Tian Zhu. Forthcoming. and politicians unable to make credible commitments "State-Owned Enterprises Going Public? The Case of China." before elections, government policy is skewed away Economics of 7Tansition. from universalistic government services toward goods that Xu, Lixin Colin, '['ian Zhu. and Yi-Mlin Lin "Politician are more easily targeted and observed. Control, Agency Problems, and Ownership Reform: Evidence * Political checks and balances create a long underfrom China." World Bank, Development Research Group, stood institutional dilemma: they make governmcnt Washington, D.C. promises (for example, not to expropriate) more credible, but they also make it more difficult for governments The Impact of Institutions on Development to respond flexibly and in a timely manner to criscs. Which effect matters more for development? Research This ongoing, multiyear research effort investigates the shows that the credibility benefits of checks and balances effect of institutions on development. Early research are more important in international financial markets asked, What is the relationship between institutions and than are the flexibility costs. the efficiency of public investment-and between insti- Work in each of these areas is expected to shed light tutions and fiscal policy? What is the relationship between on optimal policy choices in different institutional and institutions, social polarization, conflict, and economic social settings (including postconflict socicties) and on development? NMore recent research has looked at imper- tradeoffs in institution building. fections in political markets-including social polariza- The work has contributed to several of the WVorld tion, lack of citizen information, and the inability of Bank's ivorlddevelopmentrepors, to a World Bank course political decisionmakers to make credible promises to on governance and anticorruption, and to economic and citizens-and their effects on such issues as the rule of sector work in the Dominican Republic, Indonesia, and law and the provision of basic social services. Peru. In addition, the work is expected to influencc the The work is heavily empirical, relying on cross- design of infrastructure projects, advice in postconflict country statistical investigation that uses the World societies, and macroeconomic advice to countries. Bank's Database of Political Institutions. Theoretical The work has been presented in many venues, includadvances are also being made, however, particularly in ing the American Political Science Association, the Amerunderstanding how the preelectoral credibility of polit- ican Economic Association, Public Choice, and scminars ical competitors influences postelection behavior. at the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of '['he research has yielded a wide array of findings, Poland, the University of Washington, and the Univcrincluding results relating to these questions: sity of California at San Diego. Why is raw public investment so high in countries Responsibility: Development Research Group, Regulation with insecure property rights, and why does it have a neg- and Competition Policy-Philip Keefer (pkceferc ligible or negative impact on growth? Research demon- worldbank.org). strates theoretically and empirically that institutional settings in which property rights are insecure lead gov- Reports ernments to underprovide high-quality public investment Keefer, Philip "Clientelism, Credibility, and Deicocrac." but to engage in excessive rent seeking that takes the form World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. of unproductive public investment "All Democracies Are Not the Samc: ldcntifying the * Why do governments underprovide high-quality Institutions ThatNtatter for Growth and Convergence." World universal education and overprovide targeted public Bank, Development Research Group, Washington. D).C. 132 Governance and Public Sector Management

137 7)2003. S" )emocratization and Clientelism: Why Are Young der regions of four states in South India. 'P'his approach l)ciocracics Badly Governed?" W\'orld Bank, Development Rcscsrch Group, \Washington, D.C. exploits the fact that villages on both sides of the bor- ders are similar in a variety of ways-in their economies, Kccfcr. Philip, ind StuLti Kheimani ")emocraec, Public languages spoken, climate and geography, and social FExpenditkires and the Poor." Policv Rcsearcih Norking Paper structures and practices. Fo discriminate between the \'orld Bank,l )e.elopment Researcl Group, Vashington, effect of decentralization reforms and that of other state DAL Forthcoming. "Why DJo the Poor Receiv e Poor Services?" Atuomomai, ao l'olitiil lliekli, (New[ Delhi). Kccfcr. 'hilip, and Stcphcn Knack "Boondoggles and Expro- priatio: Rcnr-Seeking and Policy D)istortion WVhen Property policies and political processes, the study will exploit within-state variation in the implementation of different policies and control for as many other political processes as possible. Data for the analysis will be collected through village Rights Are InsecuLre." Policy Research Working Paper and household surveys, interviews withpanciallavt mem- World Bank, I)c\elopmcnt Rcsearch Group, \Washington. D.C. bers, and the collection of election records and financial * "Social Polarization, Political Institutions, and Coun- statements of panchavati raj institutions. tr ( redirtworthiness." In Jac C. I Icckclman and l)ennis Coates, cd'.. (Col/otir'e(/,hoit:.sswYs in Honolr of Iam'n(arO/son. New York: Springcr-\crlag. (Also issucd as Policy Research Working Paper The research is expected to contribute to the general understanding of the comparative advantages of differ- ent methods of decentralization and the effect of decen- 2920, World Bank. Development Researeh Group, Washington, tralization on public service delivery, social exclusion, and ID).(.(( 2.) living standards in developing countries. *Forthcoming. "Social Capital, Social Norms, and the NeW Responsibility: Development Research Group, Povertv Institiutional Feonomics. In (Clatide Nlenard and Niary NI. Team-Vlijayendra Rao (vrao@worldbank.org). With Tim ShirIcN; cds., Handlbook of.vw Institutional Eono,nicr. Norwell, Besley, London School of Economics; and Rohini Pande, \IlaS'.: KIlucr Acacdcmic. Yale University. The Impact of Local Governance in India: An Empirical Investigation Investment Climate in the Balkans: Regulatory Governance This research is investigating regulatory governance and market performance in the infrastructure sectors of the Balkan countries and assessing the investment climate in the Balkans with a focus on regulatory governance issues. Using data on foreign direct investment and rcg- ulatory governance indicators, the study has estimated the extent to which cross-country differences in foreign direct investment can be explained bv differences in the effectiveness of regulatory governancc and a host of other country-specific characteristics (such as size, devel- opment of infrastructure, and rate of economic growth). The empirical findings confirm what theory predicts: regulatory governance matters. Whether measured by composite indicators or on the basis of individual surveys or polls, governance seems to have a statistically significant and quantitatively important effect on foreign direct investment. 'I'his project will undertake an empirical analysis of the conscqitiences of the recent decentralization of local government in India, centered on thepanchay.aftiralinstitutiols. It will study the effects of decentralization on political participation and collective action, the inclusiorn of disadvantaged groups in these processes and their access to public services, and the functioning of the public sector in service delivery. It will also investigate how local community characteristics such as ethnic diversity and income inequality affect such institltiotial reform. In addition, taking advantage of the diversity of local decentralization processes across India. it wvill undertakc a rigorous microeconometric evaluation of the relative effectiveness of different moodels of decentralization. 'I'he study will rise a natural experiment to isolate the causl ecffect of decentralization by focusing on the bor- Governonce and Public Sector Management 133

138 But while the study, using panel data, has identified coefficient of income inequality, and geographic significant correlations between foreign direct invest- controls. With recently developed spatial cconometric ment and measures of regulatory governance, the empir- techniques, the study also tested the effects of provision ically established relationships break down after As in neighboring municipalities and spatially autocorrethe study collects additional data for later years, it will lated errors. Using detailed survcy data and probit attempt to identify a potential structural shift in the models, the study then analyzed the impact of public implied relationship between regulatory governance and service provision-in addition to political, socioccoforeign direct investment. nomic, and geographic factors-on individuals' ease of Findings have been used in economic and sector access to health care. work in Bulgaria and incorporated into a World Bank The results show that greater levels of health scr- Policy Research Report (loannis Kessides, Reforming vices are provided in urban areas, richer areas, and arcas Infrastructure: Privatization, Regulation, and Competition, with greater income inequality. Evidence suggests that New York: Oxford University Press, forthcoming). A citizens can attract better public services by going to presentation on the broader issues of regulatory gover- the polls. Decentralized municipalities provide morc nance and its effect on investment in infrastructure was services only if good governance accompanies deccnmade in a government seminar in Sofia. tralization. And there are strong neighborhood and Responsibility: Development Research Group, Regulation spatial autocorrelation effects. and Competition Policy-loannis Kessides (ikessides@ Households living in municipalities with better pubworldbank.org). With Takis Papapanagiotou. lic health services are much more likely to report that they have access to health care (that is, were able to see a health Migration, Decentralization, and Public professional when they needed to). Ethnic minorities. Goods Provision to the Poor poorer households, and rural households are much lcss likely to have access. Households in municipalitics with In most developing countries with large informal sectors, a higher voting rate and a mayor more politically conredistribution occurs primarily through subsidized nected to state legislators also report better access. public services rather than through direct transfers. So Responsibility: Development Research (Group. Infrastructo evaluate the welfare of the poor requires determining ture and Environment-Maureen Cropper (mcroppcr@ whether public services are allocated to areas that most worldbank.org); and Latin America and the Caribbean need them. This research investigated what determines Region, Brazil Anchor-Andrew Sunil Rajkumar. WVith the allocation of public health services (clinics, hospital Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, University of Colorado at beds, health professionals) across Brazilian municipali- Boulder. ties and whether the allocation of these services, along with underlying political and economic factors, has an Report impact on poor people's access to health care. NMobarak, Ahmed Mlushfiq, Andrew Sunil Rajkumar, and Nl\aureen The study first investigated the effects of politics, Cropper "'f'he Political Economy of Health Services decentralization, affluence, race, geography, and income Provision and Access in Brazil." IPaper presentcd at thc Northinequality on the per capita allocation of public services east tuniversities Development Consortium Conference, Yale across municipalities in Explanatory variables University, New Haven, Conn., September 22. included political participation by constituents, intensity of political competition between parties, the identity Operational Policy and Software Tool and ideological bent of the party in power, the relative for Institutional Analysis importance of federal (or state) and local governments in decisionmaking, the presence of ethnic and religious The World Bank has increasingly recognized the imporminorities and ethnic diversity, average incomes, a Gini tance of the political and institutional setting in 134 Governance and Public Sector Management

139 pendent of whether these countries experienced signif- icant democratization between 1990 and Thus while political liberalization and democratization are prerequisites for the emergence of a legislature, they do not by themselves explain why some democratic countries have emerging legislatures while others do not. Second, the capacity and authority of a legislature as a corporate unit and thus its prominence in the policy- making process vary as a function of two sets of characteristics: * Three structural characteristics affecting all mem- bers of the legislature-the agrarian nature of most African countries and the clientelist form of politics to which it gives rise, the formal rules specifying the powers of the legislature, and the terms of service for members. * Individual characteristics that differentiate groups of legislators. Before the late 1990s the structural characteristics served as disincentives for legislators to assert the cor- porate power of the institution to which they belonged. Rather than devoting their efforts to deliberating and amending laws, overseeing the executive, and implementing policy, legislators focused almost exclusively on serving their rural constituents. Following the second and especially the third round of multiparty elections in the late 1990s and early 2000s, the composition of the legislatures changed. Where the membership became younger and more educated, and especially where parity arose between the government and the opposition, coalitions formed to first change the terms of service for legislators and then enhance the powers of the legislatures. Some legislatures, such as the Kenya National Assem- bly, have become players in policymaking. Others, such as the Ghana National Assembly, aspire to do so. But some, like the National Assembly in Senegal, remain weak. The World Bank will need to engage more sys- tematically with legislatures where they are expanding their role in policy. Responsibility: Africa Technical Families, Public Sector Reform and Capacity-Guenter Heidenhof (gheidenhof@ worldbank.org). determining the success or failure of the projects it finances. Moreover, in recent years there has been growing interest in the World Bank in ensuring that its projects have a sustainable institutional development impact. In response, this project developed a draft operational policy on institutional analysis-and an accompanying software tool-to provide World Bank staff with a guide to assessing the capacity, commitment, and incentives of key counterparts to implement a project. The aim is to increase the likelihood that projects will have a positive effect on countries' public institutions. The draft operational policy and software tool guide staff members in conducting institutional analysis by raising questions, which require the users to collect data (largely quantitative). Pilot applications showed that these instruments added value to the project design process, leading to some useful revisions of project designs. But without strong management and budget support, task managers would generally find the analytic demands of the operational policy to be onerous. The impact of the instruments will depend on a policy decision on whether institutional analysis for project implementation and sustainability will be required (or expected) in designing World Bank projects. Responsibility: Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Public Sector Management Division- Poul Engberg-Pedersen (pengbergpedersen@worldbank.org). Parliamentary Oversight in Africa The World Bank is committed to strengthening state institutions of accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions. Yet legislative institutions in Africa have received little systematic examination despite their increasing visibility in some countries. This study assessed the evolving role of these institutions in several of the countries that have made the most progress in democratic reforms-benin, Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal. Comparative analysis of the results of field interviews conducted in the summer of 2002 led to two principal findings. First, the capacity and authority of legislative institutions vary considerably across African countries inde- Governance and Public Sector Management 135

140 Report Hoff, Karla R., and Joseph E. Stiglitz "A Dynamic NIodel of the Demand for the Rule of Law." World Bank, D)evelop- ment Research Group, Washington, D.C.: and Columbia liniversity, New York.. Forthcoming. "After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the Emcrgence of the Rule of Law in Postcommunist Societics." Almerican Economic Reiew. - Forthcoming. "The 'ransition Process in Postconmmunist Societies: 'oward a Political Economy of Propcrty Rights." In Bertil Tungodden, Nicholas Stern, and Ivar Kolstad. cds., Toward Pro-Poor Policies: Aid. Institutions, and Globialization. New York: Oxford IJniversity Press. Barkan, Joel D., Ladipo Ademolekun, and Yongmei Zhou. Forthcoming. "Emerging Legislatures: Institutions of Horizontal Accountability." In Brian Levy, ed., Governance and Public SectorAManagement in Africa. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Political Economy in the Transition Economies Over the past decade nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have become progressively more important in developing countries. In many, they now outnumber firms and account for growing shares of economic activ- ity. Yet there has been little economic research on NGO activity, and what there has been has focused on activ- ity in industrial countries. This research project investi- gates fundamental questions about NGO activity in developing and transition economies: Should govern- ments and donors subsidize or favor NGO activity? And if so, how much so, and through what mechanisms? Drawing on existing research in the social sciences, the project has developed a theoretical framework to explain NGO activity and assess whether subsidizing or favoring NGOs is appropriate for reasons of economic efficiency or equity. It has also designed and carricd out country studies analyzing NGO activities in Bangladesh This study seeks to improve the understanding of the political economy of transition economies. It addresses a question that is central to transition economies (and many developing countries) as well as to the World Bank's agenda on governance and corruption: Will those who obtained assets at large discounts (or stole them) at the beginning of the transition become the new vanguard of the rule of law, or will they be indifferent to or try to frustrate the establishment of the rule of law? To investigate this question, the study is developing a series of models and assembling data on political developments and inequality from the Russian Federation and other transition economies. The aim is to shed light on the obstacles to the emergence of the rule of law in transition economies and on policies that could be adopted to influence the political will to establish the rule of law. Findings will relate to the endogenous formation of political coalitions for and against a rule-of-law state and will clarify how macroeconomic policy and the method of privatization matter for the emergence of demand for the rule of law. The project is organizing a conference on the political economy of transition economies, to be held at the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education (CERGE) in Prague on September 10-11, Responsibility: Development Research Group, Macro- Public Policy toward Nongovernmental Organizations in Developing and Transition Economies economics and Growth-Karla R. Hoff (khoff@ and Uganda. The country studies surveycd a random samworldbank.org). With Joseph E. Stiglitz, Columbia ple of NGOs and collected data on uses and sources of University. funds, activities, staffing, grants received, and community satisfaction with NGOs. Reports The research has found that NGOs in Uganda tend Hoff, Karla R "Can Privatization Come Too Soon? Politics to be small, underfunded (a few NGOs attract most after the Big Bang in Postcommunist Societies." In Richard donor funds), and involved primarily in consciousness Arnott, Bruce Greenward, Ravi Kanbur, and Barry Nalebuff, raising. By contrast, NGOs in Bangladesh are larger, eds., Economicsforan Imperfect World. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT financed with internally generated funds, and almost Press. universally involved in microfinance. Surveys show that 136 Governance and Publit Sector Management

141 while satisfaction with NGOs is generally high, NGOs University; Ray Fisman and Julia Galef, Columbia Uniare less accessible to people in poorer communities. versity; Anna Fruttero, New York University; and William 'l'he findings have been discussed with World Bank Jack, Georgetown University. staff, rcpresentatives of NGOs and the two governments, and the broader donor communities in Dhaka and Kam- Reports pala. The findings in Ulganda are assisting the govern- Barr, Abigail, and Marcel Fafchamps. "A Client-Community Assessment in dcsigning new policies for NGO sector ment of the NGO Sector in Uganda." governance. T hose in Bangladesh were incorporated Barr, Abigail, Mlarcel Fafchamps, and Trudi Owens. "The Resources into the WVorld Bank's MVorldDeaelopmnentReport 2004:.1lak- and Governance of Nongovernmental Organizations in Uganda." i1m{ser-uices I l orkior Poor People (New York: Oxford Uni- Fruttero, Anna, and Varun Gauri. "Location Decisions and NGO v ersirt Press, 2003). Mlotivation: Evidence from Rural Bangladesh." Responsibility: Development Research Group, Public Ser- Jack, William. "Public Policy toward NGOs in Developing vices-v.arun Gauri (vgauri@worldbank.org). With Mar- Countries." cel Fafchamps, Abigail Barr, and 'rrudi Owens, Oxford Governance and Public Sector Management 137

142 Bank Research Output The documents listed below are the output of research * WorldBank WorkingPapers. This series, which superand policy analysis at the World Bank in fiscal 2002 and sedes the World Bank Discussion Papers and World To provide maximum coverage of such output, Bank Technical Papers series, includes papers presentresearch is defined for the purposes of this list in a ing results of general research and country studies for a broader rather than a narrower sense. Generally, copies wide range of development practitioners as well as highly of Bank publications (categories A and E) can be technical papers intended for specialists. purchased online at * Otherpublished series. These series typically focus on ecommerce, from the Bank's distributors (see list on last a specialized topic (such as evaluation methods and page of this volume), or from the Bank bookstore. Copies results from the Operations Evaluation Department, or of working papers and background papers (categories findings and training and learning courses from the World F-H) can be obtained from the authors or listed Bank Bank Institute). departments (at the address on this volume's title page). F Policy Research Working Papers. These working In addition, the full text of some working papers series papers are a vehicle for quick dissemination, often in an can be found on the Bank's Web site ( unpolished form, of findings of work under way in the.worldbank.org). Reprints of articles from the Bank's Bank. Papers in this series are posted on the Web at research journals (category C) may be requested from the authors; the full text of recent articles is also available on G. Other Bank working papers. These papers are prothe Web at duced and distributed by units throughout the Bank. index.htm. Other published material can be purchased They quickly disseminate findings of departmental from the publishers (categories B and D). The following research and are targeted primarily to specialists in the Bank. categories of research output are listed: H. Background papers to World Development Report A. Research-oriented books written by Bank staff and 2003: Sustainable Development in a Dynamic llorldpublished by the Bank or by other publishers. This list Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life and also includes periodic data publications, such as World World Development Report 2004: Making Services lworkfor Development Indicators, that feed subsequent research. Poor People. These papers are commissioned from B. Research by Bank staff published as part of collected researchers inside and outside the Bank. Some also come volumes of research papers. out as Policy Research Working Papers or in other forms. C. Articles appearing in the Bank's two research journals, the World Bank Economic Review and World Bank A. Books by Bank Researchers Research Observer D. Articles related to Bank research published in Abadzi, Helen Improving Adult Literacy Outcomes: Lessons other professional journals. from Cognitive Research for Developing Countries. Washington, E. World Bank Discussion Papers, Technical Papers, D.C.: World Bank. Working Papers, and other Bank series publications. Aidt, Toke, and Zafiris Tzannatos Unions and Collective * World Bank Discussion Papers. This series provides Bargaining: Economic Effects in a Global Environment. Direcdetailed results of work on research topics or country stud- tions in Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. ies that may be of interest to development practitioners. Anderson, Kym, and Bernard Hoekman, eds The Global * World Bank Technical Papers. This is an outlet for Trading System. 4 vols. London and New York: I. B. Tauris. research and studies that are highly technical and aimed Arup, Mitra Networks, Occupational Choice, and Poverty: at a narrower audience. An Exegesis on Delhi Slums. Delhi: Manohar. 138

143 Barancs, Yair, and Ronald C. C. Cuming he Albanian Deininger, Klaus LandPoliciesforGrowthandPovertyReduc- (A/late ri/l.ac.sr.stem Handbook. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. tion. World Bank Policy Research Report. New York: Oxford l3atra, Gecta, Daniel Kaufmann, and Andrew H. WV. Stone lovc tineut (limate around the WJorld: loices of the Firms from the llor/d Bnsiness lenw-ionment Survey. NVashington, D.C.: World B3ank. l3cckermai, Pauil, and Andr6s Solimano Eruadorr Crisis and Dlollaaifation. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Ilourguignon, Franiois, and Luiz Pereira da Silva, eds The University Press. Demery, Lionel, Stefano Paternostro, and Luc Christiaensen Growth, Distribution, and Povertv in Africa: Alessages from the 1990s. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Demirguc-Kunt, Ashl, and Ross Levine, eds Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Comparison of Banks, Mtfarkets, anddevelopment. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT'l Press. Inipatt of b>tonomin IPolicies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Dessus, Sebastien, Julia Devlin, and Raed Safadi, eds Fvaluation hleniques and Thols. New York: Oxford University Towards Arab andeuro-mfedregional/integration. Paris: Organ- Press. isation for Economic Co-operation and Development. l3rixi, Hanal Polackova, and Allen Schick. eds Governmentat Devarajan, Shantayanan, and E Halsey Rogers, eds. 20(02. Ilorld Risk: Continient l.iabilities and Fiscal Risk. New York: Oxford Utnivcrsitv I'ress. 13rook, Penelope J., and 'I'inothy C. Irwin, eds Infrastruc- turestr loor People: Public Policy for Private Provision. Washington, I).( : World Bank. B3ruce. Johln XW., and Robin Mearns. 2(0(02. Natural Resource Bank Economists'Forum. Vol. 2. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Dror, David M., and Alexander S. Preker, eds Social Reinsurance: A New Approach to Sustainable Community Health Financing. Washington, D.C.: World Bank; and Geeneva: International Labour Organization. Fawzy, Samiha, ed Globalization andfirm Competitiveness in the llanagenient and land Polio in Developing Countries: Lessons Aliddle East and North Africa Region. Washington, D.C.: NVorld I.arned ai//de.\e- Challenges for the World Bank. London: International lnstitutc fir Environment and Development. Bank. Ferroni, Marco, and Ashoka Mody, eds International Public (Camiphell,lTin *1.', 'Re.olution: Decentralizationandthe Goods: Incentives, AMeasurement, and Financing. Boston: Kluwer Rio9 of IPolitical PIatiripation in Latin American Cities. Pittsburgh: U nivcrsitv of Pittshurgh Press. (Caprio, Gerard, Jr., Patrick Honohan, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, eds. Academic. Fields, Gary, and Guy P. Pfeffermann, eds Pathwavs Out of' Poverty: Private Firms and Economic Mobilitv in Developing Finan,ial Liberalization: How, Far How Fast? New York: Countries. Boston: Kluwer Academic. Camhridgc liniversitv Press. Caprio. Gerard. Jr., Patrick Honohan, and Dimitri Vittas, eds l'inancial Sector Poliofor l)eveloping Countries: A Reader New York: Oxford 1.nivcrsiry Press. (Cariicliacl, Jcffrc. and Nlichael Pomerleano Development and Ri-ulation of Non-Bank Financial Institutions. Washington, 1.C.: \World B3ank. Collier, Paul, and David Dollar Globalization, Growth, and PoIert.: Iluileling an Inclusive lw orld Economy. World Bank I'olic\ Rcsearch Report. New York: Oxford University Press. Foster, Stephen, Ricardo Hirata, Daniel Gomes, Monica D'Elia, and Marta Paris Groundwater Quality Protection: A Guide for Water Utilities, lunicipal Authorities, and Environment Agencies. Washington, D.C.: XVorld Bank. Freestone, David, and Surya Subedi, eds Contemporary Issues in International Law: A Collection of the Josephine Onoh MemorialLectures. Boston: Kluwer Law International. Freire, Mila, and John Petersen, with Marcela Huertas and Miguel Valadez, eds SubnationalCapita/Alarkets in Developing Coun- tries: From Theory to Practice. New York: Oxford University Press. Collier, Paul, I,ani Elliott, Hdvard Hegre, Anke Hoeffler, Marta Freire, Nlila, and Nlario Polese, with Pamela Echeverria. 20(03. Connecting Cities with Macroeconomic Concerns: 7he.Missing.ink- Do Local Public Services Matter? A Case Study of Five Cities. Nlontreal: Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique: and Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Fretes-Cibils, Vicente, Marcelo M. Giugale. and Jose Roberto L6pez Calix, eds Ecuador:An EconomicandSocialAgenda in the New Millennium. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Re na Il-Que rol, and Nicholas Sambanis Breakingthe C(onflirl fi-ap. C.i.i liar and Deuelopnient Poliey. NVorld Bank Policy Rcscarch Report. Newy York: Oxford University Press. de leycvr, Jo\. and Linda Wavcrlcy Brigden. eds Tobacco Control Polio,: Straotecics,.S'uesses, and Setbacks. Washington, D).C.: \World Bank: and Ottawa: Research for International 'Iobacco Conitrol. Bank Research Output 139

144 I nnck, Bernard, and Lodovico Pizzati, eds I.abor, Employ- Ingco, NMerlinda, ed ghricnlture, Tr-ade, antd the 1110: Envirnnment for Ievelopnwnt Directions in ment, and Social Policies in the F7 Enlargement Process: ( ;.: ~. Creatinga Diading Perspecti-ves and Policy Options. WVashington, D.C.: World Bank. Development Series. \Vashington, D.(.: \Vorld l3ank Earopean Integration, Regional Polity, and Growth: International Finance Corporation Developing lw/nc: 11w Lessons and Prospects. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. (iiugale, Nlarcelo NI., Olivier Lafourcade, and Connie Luff. eds. Business (7ase for Snstainabilitr in Emerging.l larkets. Washington, Colombia: The Economic Foundation of Peace. WVashington, lqbal, Farrukh, and Shujiro Itrata. eds Sma/lhFirm l)ynatnisn D.C.: World Bank. Grootaert, Christiaan, and'l'hierryvan Bastelaer, eds The Role of Social Capital in Development: An Empirical Assessment. NeW York: Cambridge Ilniversity Press. D.C. in EastlAsia. Boston: Kluwer Acadcmic. Jordan, Callv, and Giovanni Nlajnoni Finamial Rcn/latorv Harmonization and the Globalization of Finame. Washington, D.C.: WVorld Bank Understanding and Measuring Social Capital: A Multi- Kawashima, Shigekatzu, 'ramara Butler-johldroN, (,eorge Annandisciplinary Toolfor Practitioners. Directions in Development Series. Washington, I).C.: World Bank. dale, and Farhed Shah Resernoir Coneion: Eonomic and Engineering Evalnation of Alternative Stratrgi es for -1llang Hanson, James A., Patrick Honohan, and Giovanni Majnoni, eds. Sedimentation in.\.. Rcr-croils. Vol. 2, RFSCOAV.IPodel and Globalization and National Financial SYste,ms. New York: lusermlanual. Waslhington, D.C.: \Vorld Banik. Oxford tniversity lpress. Kiss, Agi Building a Sustainable Futu,re: 7heS Afiira Renion H-ewawasam, IndU, ed anagi ngthe.1farineand GoastalEnvi- Environment Strategy. D irections in De\elopment Srien. ron,ment of Sub-Saharan Africa: Strategic Directions. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Hoekman, Bernard, and Nlichel NI. Kostecki hg Political Economyv of the BIorld TradingSystem.n Thge ITO andbevond. New York: Oxford University Press. IFloekman, Bernard, and Will Nlartin, eds Developing (Coun- trier and the Il-7O0:A Proartive Agenda. Oxford: Blackwell. Hoekman, Bernard, and Patrick Nlesserlin. 2(002. Harnessing Trade for Development and Growth in the Aliddle East: Report hv the Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Klein, Nlichael U., and Bita Hadjimiiiclhacl. 20)03. 1hw Private Sector in Development: Entrepreneurship, Regulation, andt Compet-t itive Disciplines. WNiasliington. D).C.: W orld Bank. Klugman, Jeni, ed A Sourrebookjfor Povertv Rednction Sitre- gies. Vol. 1, Cor 7Tehniqnuc and (.ross-cnttinglssncs \Vashillgton. D.C.: World 13ank. Knack, Stephen. ed. 2)003. D)eorocracy. Governance, and Gr/o(t/1. Ann Arbor: University of Nlichigan Press. Council on Foreign Relations Studvl Group on Miiddle East Trade Lazarus, Suellen l.ambert, ed. 2(0(02. 7ie International/ Finanue Options. New York: Council on Foreign Relations. Hoekman, Bernard, Philip English, and Aaditya Nlattoo, eds Development. Thade, and the WT70: A Handbook. Washington. D.C.: WVorld Bank. Holzmann, Robert, Mitchell Orenstein. and N\lichal Rutkowski, eds. Corporation and Its Role in Globalization: HighigrhtsJfonio llfcs Participants leeting in llashington, D.C., lune WaIsh- ington, D.C.: WVorld Bank. Levine, Ruth E., Amanda Glassman, and Mliriam Schncidmoan The Health of llometn in Latin.Anerica anfd the (Caribbean Pension Reform in Europe: Process and Progress. Directions Washington, D.C.: WNorld 13ank and Inter-American Developin Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Honohan, Patrick, ed. 2(003. Kixration of Financial Intermediation: Theory and Practicefor Emerging Economies. New York: Oxford ITniversity Press. Hopper, Richard, ed. 20(02. (onstruttingknowledge Societies:NVeta Chal- ment Bank. Loayza, Norman. and Klaus Schmidt-Htbbel, eds. 2(0()2.. llonetalry Policy: Rules anfd liansmni.ssion Mlechanisnis. Saintiago: Ccntral Bank of Chile. Loayza, Norman, and Raimundo Soto, eds. 20(02. I/ilation 1iir etlengesfor 7i.-tiar Edduatiion. Directions in Development Series. ing: Design, Perforlmanc.r (... Santiago: Central B3ank of Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Imparato, Ivo, and Jeff Ruster Slum Upgradingand Partici- Locksley, Gareth, and Daavid Satola. 2(0(02. llorld Rank: 7he, pation:lerssonsfromi,atin America. Directions in Development Privatization Agenda for Miecomns in Fnrope aind (.Centrm/.I.ia. Series. Washington, D.C.: WNorld Bank. Chile. London: KPG, IntCrnational. 140 Bank Research Output

145 Nlarc. Alcxandrc, Nora Dudwick, and Elizabeth Gomart, eds. Ringold, Dena, Mlitchell A. Orenstein, and Erika Wilkens ltheu Things Fat/Apart: Qualitaive Studies of Poverty in the Roma in an Expanding Europe: Breaking the Poverty Cycle. ForlnerSooviet Union. WVashington. D.C.: World Bank. NVashington, D.C.: World Bank. Nlarkandva. Anil, Patrice Harou, Lorenzo Giovanni Bellu, and Robb, Caroline NI Can the Poor JIst.aFn-.P, 'Participatory Vito Cistulli Environmental Economics for Sustainable (Growth: A1 Handbook for Prac titioners. Northampton, Mass.: Poverty Assessments in the Developing Torld. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Fdward Elgar. Robinson. Nlarguerite S The.llicrofinanceRevolution. Vol. 2, Marshall. Katherine, and Olivier Butzbach, eds New Social Policy.I gendas tor Europe and Asia: l.essons. Washington. D).C.: World Bank. Experiences nha//enges and Martin, \Will, and Mari Pangestu, eds Options for Global Drade Reformn:.1 V`iewi from the Asia-Pacific. New York: Cambridge [ fniversity Press. Nlaskus, Kcith F., and John S. Wilson, eds Quantiying the L.essonsfrom Indonesia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Rodden, Jonathan, Gunnar S. Eskeland, and Jennie Litvack, eds Fiscal Decentralization and the Challenge of Hard Budget Constraints. Cambridge, Mass.: NIIT Press. Ruf. Francois, and Frederic Lancon, eds From Slash andburn to Replanting. Green Revolutions in the Indonesian 77plands. Wash- ington, D.C.: World Bank. Impact of Tthhical Barriers to Trade: Can ItBeDone?Ann Arbor: Sadoff, Claudia WV., Dale Whittington, and David Grey Inivcrsity of Nlichigan Press. NMattoo, Aaditva. and Antonia Carzaniga, eds I/oving People to Dlciver.Scr'vi fs. 'Irade and l)evelopment Series. New York: Oxford I 'niversity Press. NlcNlahon, Gary, and Felix Remy, eds Land.Mlines and the Africa, International Rivers: An Economic Perspective. Directions in Development Series. Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank. Sauve, Pierre, and Aaditya Mlattoo, eds Domestic Regulation and Service TradeLiberalization. Trade and Development Series. New,York: Oxford University Press. (ommnnoitt:.sot ioeconomic and Environmental F - in Latin Schiff Mlaurice, and L. Alan Winters RegionalIntegration and.lamerica. Canada, and Spain. Washington, D.C.: World Biank. Nlingat, Alain, Jee-Peng Fan, and Shobhana Sosale, eds loolsfor Education PolicyT Analysis. Washington, D.C.: World l3ank. Narayan. I)ecpa, ed Empowerrment and Poverty Reduction: Development. New York: Oxford University Press. Schreiner, Mark, and Jacob Yaron Development Finance Insti- tutions: MIleasuning Their.Subsidy. Directions in Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Stern, Nicholas A Strategy for Development. Washington, D.C.: World Bank..1 Sourebook. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. TFenev, Stoyan, and Chunlin Zhang Corporate Governance Naravan, IDeepa, and Patti Petesch, eds I oires of the Poor Vol. and Enterprise Reform in China: Building the Institutions of 3, Fromn.1iany I.ands. New York: Oxford tniversity Press. Modern Alarkets. Washington, D.C.: International Finance lpalmieri. Alessandro, Farhed Shah, George Annandale, and Ariel Corporation. Dinar Reservoir Conservation: Economic and Engineering Van Greuning, Hennie, and Sonja Brajovic Bratanovic Evaluation of Alternativi-etrategiesforl Managing Sedimentation in AnalyzingandMllanagingBankingRisk:.A FrameworkforAssessing %.. Rese-voi,s. Vol. 1, 7he RESGCONApproach. WVashington, Comporate Governance and Financial Risk. Washington, D.C.: D).C.: World Bank. 'leslsko\ic, loris, and Nicholas Stern, eds Annua/llorldBank Con/fernre on Developmnent Economics 200I12)002. New York: Oxford liniversity Press. World Bank. Van Puymbroeck, Rudolf V., ed he WorldBankLegalReview: Law andjusticefordevelopment. Vol. 1. 'I'he Hague: Kluwer Law International Annual IloorI Bank Conference on DevelopmentEconomics Wilson, John S., and Victor 0. Abiola, eds Standards anddglobal 203:7 7/hT Xea Reformn Agenda. New York: Oxford LTniversity Trade: A Toice forafrica. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Press. World Bank Global Economic Prospects.. t1. U Trade Wl ork Rcinikka, Rit\a, and Paul Collier, eds l.gandas Recovery: for the Uorlds Poor Washington, D.C. 7The Ro/c of Farms, Firnis, and Government. Washington, D.C.: Transition: The First 7fn Years-it nalysis and Lessons W\orld Blaink. for Eastern Europe andthe lformer Soviet Union. NVashington, D.C. Bank Research Output 141

146 African Development Indicators Washington, loung, NMary Eming, ed From Early Child Development to D.C. Human Development: Investing in Our Children :' Future Building Trust: Developing the Rnssian Financial Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Sector Washington, D.C. Yusuf, Shahid Innovative East Asia: 7he Future of Growth. New A CaseforAid: Buildinga Consensus for Development York: Oxford [University Press. Assistance. Washington, D.C. Yusuf, Shahid, and Simon J. Evenett Can EastAsia Compete? Cities on the MtTove: A World Bank Urban Transport Innovation forglobalilmariets. New York: Oxford IUniversitv Press. Strategy Review. Washington, D.C Education and HIVIAIDS: A Window of Hope. Wash- B. Book Chapters by Bank Researchers ington, D.C Global Development Finance Washington, Agenor, Pierre-Richard "Nlonetary Policy under Flexible D.C. Exchange Rates: An Introduction to Inflation 'Iargeting." In Global Economic Prospects 2003: Investing to tunlock Norman Loavza and Raimundo Soto, eds., I.. Tar eting: Global Opportunities. Washington, D.C. Design, Performiance, (...,. Santiago: Central Bank of Chile Information and Communication Technologies: A Wlorld Amelina, rnaria "What 'liurns the Kolkhoz into a Firm? Bank Group Study. Washington, D.C. Regional Policies and the Elasticity of Budget Constraints." In The Little Data Book Washington, D).C. David J. O'Brien and Stephen K. Wegren, eds., Rural Reform The Little Green Data Book Washington, D.C. in Post-Soviet Russia. Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Poverty Reduction and the lworld Bank: Progress in Center Press; and Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Liniversitv Press. Operationalizingthe IIDR 2000/2001. Washington, D.C. Anderson, Jock, Donald F Larson, and Panos Varangis Private Solutions for Infrastructure in Cambodia. "Agricultural NMarkets and Risk: Nlanagement of the Latter, Not Washington, D.C. the Former." In Ross Garnaut, ed., Resouiirce,lanage.ientin,Asia Reducing Vulnerability andlincreasing Opportunitv: Social Parific Developing Countries. (Canberra: Asia Pacific lpress. Protection in the Middle East and North Africa. Washington, Brautigam, Deborah, and NMichael Woolcock "Micro-States D.C. in a Global Economy: 'I'he Role of Institutions and Net-works Wlorld Bank Atlas Washington, D.C. in Nlanaging \ulnerability and Opportunity." In S. NMansoob WorldDevelopmentIndicatois Washington, D.C. NIurshed, ed., Globalization, Mlarginalization, and Development IVorldDevelopmentReport 20t3:SustainableDevelop- New York: Routledge. mentin a Dynamic World-ThansformingInstitutions, Growth, and Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo "On Quality of Life. New lork: Oxford LJniversity Press. the Fiscal Implications of'fwin Crises." In Nlichael Dooley and Global Development Finance 200t3: Striving for Jeffrey A. Frankel, eds., imlanaging Currency Crises in Emerging Stability in Development Finance. Washington, D.C..llarkets. Chicago: University of Chicago Press The Little Green Data Book Washington, D.C. Caprio, Gerard, Jr., and Ross Levine "Corporate Gover Port Reform Toolkit: EfitFhti Decision Support for nance in Finance: Concepts and International Observations." Policymakers. Washington, D.C. In Robert E. Litan, Nlichael Pomerleano. and v'. Sundararajan, Private Solutions for Infrastructure in MIexico. eds., Financial Sector Governance: The Role of the Publh and Washington, D.C. Private Sectors. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press ReformingP`ublic Institutions andstrrngtheninggovernance: Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel. and Luc Laeven A WVorld Bank Strategv Implementation Update. Washington, D.C. "Financial Restructuring in Banking and Corporate Sector WorldBank Atlas Washington, D.C. Crises: What Policies to Pursue?" In Nlichael Dooley and lvorlddevelopment Indicators Washington, D.C. Jeffrey A. Frankel, eds.. MIanaging Currenq Cyrises in Emerging World Bank and International Nlonetary Fund CivilService Mfarkets. Chicago: University of Chicago Plress. Reform: Strengthening World Bank and IlMF C,ollaboration. Di rec- Collier, Paul "Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and ''heir tions in Development Series. Washington, D.C. Implications for Policy." In Chester A. Crocker, Fen Osler 142 Bank Research Output

147 Hampson, and Pamela Aall, eds., TurbulentPeace: The Challenges of Managing International Conflict. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press. Elbadawi, Ibrahim "Real Exchange Rate Policy and Non-'rraditional Exports in Developing Countries." In Gerald Greaney, Vincent, and T. Kellaghan "IEA and OECD Studies of Reading Literacy." In J. W. Guthrie, ed., Enmyclopedia of Education. 2nd ed. New York: NMacMillan Reference. Hoff, Karla R "Can Privatization Come Too Soon? Politics after the Big Bang in Postcommunist Societies." In Richard Arnott, K. Helleiner, ed., Non-Traditional Export Promotion in Africa: Bruce Greenward, Ravi Kanbur, and Barry Nalebuff, eds., Eco- Experience and Issues. New York: Palgrave. nomicsfor an Imperfect lvorld. Cambridge, N4Mass.: NI IT Press "Macroeconomic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa Honohan, Patrick "Will the Euro TIrigger M\ore Monetary in a Comparative Setting." In NMachiko Nissanke and Ernest Aryeetey, eds., Comparative Development Experiences of Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. Aldershot, England, and Burlington, Vt.: Ashgate. Estache, Antonio "Argentine Privatization: A Cure or a Disease?" In Christian Hirschhausen, Thorsten Beckers, and Kay Mitusch, eds., Trends in InfrastructureRegulation andfinanc- ing: International Experience and Case Studies from Germanv. Cheltenham, England, and Northampton, Mass.: Edward Elgar. Evenett, Simon, and Bernard Hoekman "Transparency in Government Procurement: What Can We Expect from Inter- national Trade Agreements?" In Sue Arrowsmith and Martin Unions in Africa?" In Charles Wyplosz, ed., The Impactof E.U on Europe and the Developing Countries. New lork: Oxford University Press "Banking Policy and Macroeconomic Stability: An Exploration." In William C. Hunter, George G. Kaufman, and Michael Pomerleano, eds., Asset Price Bubbles: Implications for Mt/onetary, Regulatory, and International Policies. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. Hoogeveen, Johannes G "Determinants of Self-Employment in Zimbabwe." In Jan Willem Gunning and Remco Oostendorp, eds., Industrial Change in Africa: Micro Evidence on Zimbabwean Firms under StructuralAdjustment. New York: Palgrave. Trybus, eds., Public Procurement: The ContinuingRevolution. The "NManufacturing Export Performance, Macroeco- Hague: Kluwer Law International. Feder, Gershon "Agricultural Extension: Generic Challenges and the Ingredients for Solutions." In Steven Wolf and David Zilberman, eds., Knowledge Generation and Technical Change: Institutional Innovation in Agriculture. Boston: Kluwer nomic Adjustment, and the Role of Networks." In Jan Willem Gunning and Remco Oostendorp, cds., Industrial C<.... in Africa: Vlicro Evidence on Zimbabwean Firms under Structural Adjustment. New York: Palgrave. Impavido, Gregorio "Governance Issues in Public Pension Academic. Fund Management: Preliminary Considerations." In Robert E "Land Institutions and Land NMarkets." In Bruce L. Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan, eds., Finan- Gardner and Gordon C. Rausser, eds., Handbook of Agricultural Economics. New York: Elsevier. Finger, J. Michael, Francis Ng, and Sonam Wangchuk "Antidumping as Safeguard Policy." In Robert M. Stern, ed., Issues and Options for lus-japan Trade Policies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Fink, Carsten, Bernard Hoekman, and Carlos Primo-Braga "Telecommunications-Related Services: Market Access, Deeper Integration, and the WTO." In Paolo Guerrieri and Hans- Eckart Scharrer, eds., Trade, Investment, and Competition Policies in the Global Economy: The Case of the International Telecommunications Regime. Baden-Baden: Nomos. Greaney, Vincent "Literacy in Developing Countries: Why Not?" In G. Shiel and U. Ni Dhalaigh, eds., Other Ways of Seeing: Diversity in Language and Literacy. Dublin: Reading Association of Ireland and International Reading Association. cial Sector Governance: The Role of the Public and Private.Sectors. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion "Household Income Dynamics in Rural China." In Stefan Dercon, ed., Insurance against Poverty. New York: Oxford tjniversitv Press. Jin, Jing, and Heng-fu Zou "Soft Budget Constraints and Local Government in China." In Jonathan Rodden. Gunnar S. Eske- land, and Jennie Litvack, eds., FiscalDecentralization andthe Chal- lengeoflhardbudget Constraints. Cambridge, Mass.: MI'T Press. Kaufmann, Daniel "Public and Private Mfisgovernance in Finance: Perverse Links, Capture, and 'I'heir Empirics." In Robert E. Litan, Michael Pomerleano, and V. Sundararajan, cds., Financial Sector Governance: The Role of the Public and Private Sectors. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press. Keefer, Philip "Politics and the Determinants of Banking Crises: The Effects of Political Checks and Balances." In Bank Research Output 143

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150 Dercon, Stefan "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Gylfason, Thorvaldur, Tryggvi Thor Herbertsson, and Gylfi Zoega. Nets." l'orld Bank Research Observer 17(2): "Ownership and Growth." WorldBank Economic Review Desai, Raj Nl., and Itzhak Goldberg "The Politics of Russian 15(3): Enterprise Reform: Insiders, Local Governments, and the Obsta- Haddad, Lawrence, Harold Alderman, Simon Appleton, Lina cles to Restructuring." WllorldBank Research Observer 16(2): Song, and Yisehac Yohannes "Reducing Child Malnu- Duflow, Esther "Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old- trition: How Far Does Income Growth Take Us?" WorldBank Age Pensions and Intrahousehold Allocation in South Africa." Economic Review 17(1): lw/orld Bank Economic Review 17(1): Harrison, Glenn W., Thomas E Rutherford, and David G. Tarr Easterly, William, and Ross Levine "What Have We Learned "Tl rade Policy Options for Chile: The Importance of Market from a Decade of Empirical Research on Growth? It's Not Access." World Bank Economic Review 16(1): Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth NModels." Hayami, Yujiro "Ecology, History, and Development: World Bank Economic Review 15(2): A Perspective from Rural Southeast Asia." WorldBank Research Edwards, Alejandra Cox "Gender Effects of Social Security Observer 16(2): Reform in Chile." 11orld Bank Economic Review) 16(3): Henderson, Vernon "Urbanization in Developing Coun- Eichengreen, Barry "Capital Account Liberalization: What tries." VWorld Bank Research Observer 17(1): Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?" World Bank Economic Hertel, Thomas, Bernard Hoekman, and Will Martin "Devel- Review, 15(3): oping Countries and a New Round of WTO Negotiations." Estache, Antonio, and Martin A. Rossi "How Different Is IVorld Bank Research Observer 17(1): the Efficiency of Public and Private Water Companies in Asia?" Hoekman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Marcelo Olarreaga WVorldBank Economic Reviewe 16(1): "Eliminating Excessive Tariffs on Exports of Least Devel- Fallon, Peter R., and Robert E. B. Lucas "The Impact of oped Countries." World Bank Economic Review 16(1): Financial Crises on Labor Markets, Household Incomes, and Jack, William "Public Intervention in Health Insurance Poverty: A Review of Evidence." WorldBank Research Observer Markets: Theory and Four Examples from Latin America." 17(1): IVorld Bank Research Observxer 17(1): Filmer, Deon, Jeffrey S. Hammer, and Lant H. Pritchett Kaminsky, Graciela, and Sergio L. Schmukler "Emerging "Weak Links in the Chain II: A Prescription for Health Policy Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk in Poor Countries." IVorldBank Research Observer 17(1): and Stock Returns?" IVorldBank EconomicReview 16(2): Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Mattoo, and Ileana Cristina Neagu Kaminsky, Graciela, Richard K. Lyons, and Sergio L. Schmukler. "Trade in International Maritime Services: How NMuch Does "Mutual Fund Investment in Emerging Markets: An Policy NMatter?" IVorldBank Economic Review, 16(1): Overview." IVorld Bank Economic Review 15(2): Friedman, Jed, and James Levinsohn "The Distributional Klasen, Stephan "Low Schooling for Girls, Slower Growth Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: for All? Cross-Country Evidence on the Effect of Gender A 'Rapid Response' Nethodology." World Bank Economic Review, Inequality in Education on Economic Development." IVorld 16(3): Bank Economic Review 16(3): Gauthier, Bernard, Isidro Soloaga, and James Tybout "A Laeven, Luc "Bank Risk and Deposit Insurance." IVorldBank Firm's-Eve View of Commercial Policy and Fiscal Reforms in Economic Review 16(1): Cameroon." Wlorld Bank Economic Review' 16(3): Limao, Nuno, and Anthony J. Venables "Infrastructure, Gisselquist, David, John Nash, and Carl Pray "Deregulat- Geographical Disadvantage, Transport Costs, and Trade." World ing the 'I'ransfer of Agricultural Technology: Lessons from Bank Economic Review 15(1): Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Zimbabwe." WorldBank Research Nlackinnon, John, and Ritva Reinikka "How Research Can Observer 17(2): Assist Policy: The Case of Economic Reforms in Uganda." Gwilliam, Ken, and Ajay Kumar "How Effective Are World Bank Research Observer 17(2): Second-Generation Road Funds? A Preliminary Appraisal." NMody, Ashoka, and Kamil Yilmaz "Imported Machinery for Wl orld Bank Research Observer 18(1): Export Competitiveness." IVorldBankEconomikReview 16(1): Bank Research Output

151 Nlontiel, Pctcr J "Tight Nloney in a Post-Crisis Defense of the Exchange Rate: What Have WVe Learned?" llorld Bank Wallack, Jessica Seddon, Alejandro Gaviria, ITgo Panizza, and Ernesto Stein "Particularism around the World." U'orld Research Obseruer 18(1): Bank Economic Review 17(1): Nlurgai, Rinku, Niubarik Ali, and Derek Byerlee "t'roduc- Younger, Stephen D "Benefits on the Margin: Observativitv Growth and Sustainabilitv in Post-Green Revolution Agriculturc: 'I'he Case of the Indian and Pakistan Punjabs." Review 17(1): lvorld Bank Research Obser-ver 16(2): Newman, Constance "Gender, Time l1se, and Change: tions on Marginal Benefit Incidence." lorld Bank Economic D. Articles Related to Bank Research and Published The Impact of the Cut Flower Industry in Ectuador." o,rldbank in Non-Bank Professional Journals Economic Review 16(3): Newman, John, Nlenno Pradhan, Laura B. Rawlings, Geert Ridder. Ramiro Coa, and Jose Luis Evia "An Impact Evaluation of Education, Health, and Water Supply Investments Acharya, Gayatri, and Edward Barbier "Using Domestic Water Analysis to Value Groundwater Recharge in the Hadejia- Jama'are Floodplain, Northern Nigeria." American Journal of bv the Bolivian Social Investmcnt Fund." Wl orld Bank Agricultural Economits 84(2): Economii Re-iew 16(2 ): lpaxson. Christina, and Norbcrt R. Schady. 2(002. "I'he Allocation and Impact of Social Funds: Spending on School Infrastructure 50((2): in Peru." 1orld Bank Economic Review 16(2): Adams, Richard H., Jr "Nonfarm Income, Inequality, and Land in Rural Egypt." EconomicDezvelopmentand Cultural Change Adekola, 0. A "A Generalized Life Expectancy Model for Pistor, Katharina, Yoram Keinan, Jan Kleinhcistcrkamp, and NMark a Population." Journal of the Operational Research Society 53(8): D. West "Evolution of Corporate Law and the Transplant Effect: Lessons from Six Countries." llorld Bank Research Agenor, Pierre-Richard "Employment Effects of Stabilization Obser-er 18(1): Policies." European Journal of Political Economy 17(4): Pradhan, Nlenno, and Laura B. Rawlings. 2(0(02. "'I'he Impact and "Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor: Targeting of Social Infrastructure Investments: Lessons from 'Iesting for Asymmetric Effects." Journal of Policy Reform 5(3): the Nicaraguan Social Fund." llorld Bank Economic Review (2): Agenor, Pierre-Richard, Alexander Hoffmaister, and Carlos Pritchett, Lant. 2(0(01. "Where Has All the Education Gone?" NMedeiros "Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange WorldBank Economic Review 15(3): Rate: The Role of Domestic and External Factors, " Rama, NMartin "Thc Gender Implications of Public Sector Revista Brasileira de Economia 56: Downsizing: The Reform Program of Vietnam." Wlorld Bank Research Obser-ver 17(2): Ainsworth, NMartha, and Julia Dayton "The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Health of Older Persons in North- Rawlings, L.aura B., and Norbert R. Schady "Impact western 'anzania." W`orldDevelopment3l(l): Evaluation of Social Funds: An Introduction." llorld Bank Economic Re-iew 16(2): Ainsworth, Martha, Chris Beyrer, and A. Soucat "AIDS and Public Policy: 'The Lessons and Challenges of 'Success' in Rcinhart, (Carmen NI "Default, Currency Crises, and Sover- 'I'hailand." Health Policy 64(1): eign Credit Ratings." i orldbank Eronomic Reviea 16(2): Saggi, Kamal "'Frade. Foreign Direct Investment, and Inter- Ajwad, Nlohamed Ihsan, and John Baffes. 20(11. "Identifying Price Linkages: A Review of the Literature and an Application to the national Technology Transfer: A Su rvey." Ilorld Bank Researth World NMarket of Cotton." Applied Economics 33(15): Observer 17(2): Ajwad, Nlohamed Ihsan, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya Solow, Rohert NI "What Have W'e Learned from a Decade of Empirical Research on Growth? Applying Growth Theory EconomicJournal3(): across Countries." lliorldbank EconomicReviewv 15(2): "Ethnic and Gender Wage Disparities in Sri Lanka." Srilanka Akiyama, Takamasa, John Baffes, Donald Larson, and Panos Romain. 2(0(01. "Nleasuring the Dynamic Gains fromn Varangis "Commodity NMarket Reform in Africa: Some Trade." Mirl Bank Economic Review 15(3): Recent Experience." Economic Systems 27(1): Bunk Reseatrl Output 1 47

152 Alderman, Harold "Do Local Officials Know Something We Don't? Decentralization of Targeted Transfers in Albania." Journal of Public Economics 83(3): Anderson, Kym, Betina Dimaranan, Joseph Frangois, 'I'homas NV. Hertel, Bernard Hoekman, and Will Mlartin "'I'hc C(ost of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Devcloping Alderman, Harold, Jesko Hentschel, and Ricardo Sabates Countries." Journal of African Economies 10(3): "With the Help of One's Neighbors: Externalities in the Production of Nutrition in Peru." Social Science and Medirine Anderton, Robert, Paul Brenton, and Eva Oscarsson "What's Tlrade Got to Do with It? Relativc Demand for Skills within 56(10): Swedish Mlanufacturing." IVeltwirtschaftliches ArthivlReuiew ot Alderman, Harold, Jooseop Kim, and Peter F. Orazem IorldEconomics 138(4): "Design, Evaluation, and Sustainability of Private Schools for the Poor: The Pakistan 11rban and Rural Fellowship School Andrews, NI., and L. Schroeder "Sectoral Dcentralization and Intcrgovernmcntal Arrangcments in Africa." Publid Experiments." Economics of Education Review, 22(3): Administration and Development 23(1): Alderman, Harold, Mfiriam Babita, Gabriel Demombynes, Nthabiseng Makhatha, and Berk Ozler "How Low Can You Go? Combining Census and Survey Data for Mapping Angrist, Joshua, Eric Bettinger, Erik Bloo, Elizabeth NI. King, and Michael Kremer "Vouchers for Private Schooling in Colombia: Evidence from a Randomizcd Natural Experiment." Poverty in South Africa." Journal of African Economies 11(2): American Economic Review 92(5): Anormo, Emmanuel, and Yusuf Ahmad "Causal Rclationship Alderman, Harold, Jere Behrman, Hans-Peter Kohler, John A. NMaluccio, and Susan Watkins "Attrition in Longitudinal Household Survey Data: Some 'rests for 'Three Developing 13(2): between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence from Seven African Countries.".African Development Revicxc Country Samples." Demographic Research 5: Anoruo, Emmanuel, Habtu Braha, and Yusuf Ahmad Al Habsy, Said N., and Kishor Uprety "Cooperation for "Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence from D)eveloping Coon- Nominal Development or Politics for Actual Survival? South tries." InternationalAdvances in Economic Research 8(2): Asia in the Mlaking of International Law." Journal of 7rans- Antinolfi, Gaetano, E. Huybens, and Todd Keister "NIlonnationalLaw and Policy 12(1): etary Stability and Liquidity Crises: The Rolc of the Lender Ali, Nlubarik, and Derek Byerlee "Productivity Growth of Last Resort." Journal o Economic Theory 99)1-2): and Resource Degradation in Pakistan's Punjab: A Decompo- sition Analysis." Economic Development and Cultural Change Ardila, A.. and G. Nlenckhoff "TFransportation Plolicies in Bogota, Colombia: Building a 'I'ransportation System for the 50(4): People." 7ransportation Research Record 1817: Allayannis, George, Gregory W. Brown, and Leora Klapper "Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia." Journal of Finance 58(6): Arin, T, and R. A. Kramer "Divers' Willingness to Pay to Visit Mlarine Sanctuaries: An Exploratory Studv." Ocean and (Coastal.llanagement45(2-3): Asilian, A., 1 Jayaler, NM. Nilforooshzadeh, R. L. Ghassemi, R. Peto, Al-Sabbry, MI. NM., D. Harris, and R. Fox "An Fconomic S. Wayling, P. Olliaro, and ENlodabbcr "Treatment of Cuta- Assessment of Ground Water Recharge in the Tucson Basin." JournaloftheAmerinan WVaterResourcesAssociation 38(1): neous Leishmaniasis with Aminosidine (Paromomycin) Ointment: Double-Blind, Randomized 'I'rial in the Islamic Republic of Anderson, James H., and Roger R. Betancourt "The Iran." Bulletin of the lvorld Health Otganization 81(5): Distribution Sector and the Development Process: Are T'here Astrakhan, I., and A. Chepurcnko "Small Business in Rus- Patterns? Yes." Economic Inquiry 40(2): sia: Any Prospects after a Decade?" Futures 35(4): Anderson, James H., Georges Korsun, and Peter NMurrell Atkinson, Giles, and Kirk Hamilton "International 'Trade and "Glamour and Value in the Land of Chingis Khan." Journal of the 'Ecological Balance of Payments."' Resourres Policy 28(1-2): Comparative Economics 31(1): Anderson, Kathryn H., Elizabeth NM. King, and Yan Wang Averbug, Andre "The Brazilian Economy in : "Mlarket Returns, Transfers, and Demand for Schooling in From the RealPlan to Inflation Targets." llorldeconomy 25(7): Nlalaysia, " JournalofDevelopmentStudies 39(3): Bank Research Output

153 ANN, Bee Yan, S. \I. Chen, and Mark J. Roberts "Firm-Level FEvi(icnce on1 ProductivitV Diffcrcntials and 'ILirnover in Bcck, 'I'horsten, and Ross Levine "Industry Growth and (apital Allocation: Does Having a Nlarkct- or Bank-Based 'IEissanesc M\anufacturing." Joniwal of Devlopnent Economi(s Systcm latter?" Journal ofl 'inan ialconojmias. 64(2): (1): Beck, Thorsten, Ashi Demirgtie-Kunt. and Ross Levinc Bach. Christian Friis, and \Will Nilartini "WA:ould the Right "Legal Theorics of Financial Developrmernt." 0(JoidRt,e'i(a' of 'ariff Aggrcgator for Policy Anal\sis please Stand Lp?" Economic Polio, 17(4): Ionnwalofdoliti.iJodeling 23(6): Beghin, John C., Bradley J. Bossland, Sebastien l)essus, David Baffes, John, and Mladhur Gautam "Asscssing the Sustain- Roland-Hoist, and DominiCILIC van der NIcnsbrugglic abilit\ of Ricc Production Growth in Bangladesh." I'ood lpo/icr 26(5): "'Frade Integration, Environmental l)egradation. and public Health in Chile: Assessing the Linkages." Environmeont andi Baffes, John, and jean-(charics Le Nallee "l nit Roots De)celopmentlEconomics 7(2): versus 'Irend Stationaritv in Gro\sth Rate Estimation." Applied Bell, NI. L., D. Davis, L.. Cifuentes, A. (Cohcn, N. Gouveia, L.. Grant, Eiconomioi(s.e//c:r 10)(1): C. Green, '. Johnson, J. Rogat, J. Spengler, anid. 'ihurston. l3aranzini, Andrea, Marc Chcsnrc. and Jacqucs Nlorisset "International Expert WNorkshop on the Analvsis of the "'he Impact of Possible (Climate Catastrophes on Global Economic and Public Health Impacts of Air Pollution: \Work- Warming lpolicv.-" Enerlir PIo/it 31(8): shop Summary." Environmental Heailthl PersptYtives 10(1 1): Barth, James R.. (Gcrard Caprio Ir., and Ross Levine. 20)01. "Choos ing Rcgulation.s I'hat \Work." l'inancialregulator6(3): Bencivenga, Valerie R., Elisabeth Hllmybens, and 3rucc 1). Smith. - )2)1. "'tlc RCguilation and Supervision of Banks around "Dollarization and the Integration of International thc World: A Ness )atabase." Brookings-llhmarton Paper-s on Capital Markets: A Contribution to the Thcory of Optimal (Curl"inan,ia/.Scr c i'o. pp reney Areas." Journal of. lonet'. Cretit, and Banking 33(2): B3ashir. Sajitha. 2(0)02. "llpgrading the Educational Attainment. 21)112. "What to Stabilize in the Open Economr." and Skill Level of the Karinataka Workforce: (Challenges International Economnic Review 43(4): and Options." Indiian Jonr-nal of labioulr Economics 45(4): Benitez, Daniel A., Antonio Estache, 1). Mark Kennet, and Chris tian A. Ruzzier "'I'hc Potcntial Role of Econoniic (Cost Basio, kaushjik, Ambar Naravan. and Martin Ra\allion "Is NModels in the Regulation of Telecommunications in D)evcloping Litcracy Sharcd wnithin Households? 'I'hcory and Evidence C(ountrics." Information Emonomnis and Pokier 14(1): for Bangladesh." lb.aonr Econoiniks 8(6): Bennett, A. B., T. J. C. Andcrson, G. C. Barker, E. M\iclhael, and Batsoin A. 2(0)02. "'1hc Crosts anti Economics of NModcrn Vaccine D. A. P. Bundy. 20)0)2. "Scquence 'Variation in the 'I'richuris I)eveloppment." DeJA'/opinents in B3iolO(gital 11(): Irichiura Beta-'lubulin L.ocus: Implications for the D)evelop "S'stainiable l'unding: Options Bcing Canvasscd." ment of Benzimidazole Resistance." International Jon-n aljfor D)cvclo/pmnentv in Biolo'aic/s 11(1: Parasitolog, 32(12): BeasleV, NI.. S. Brooker, NI. NdinaLromtan, E. NI. Niadjiouroum, li. Baboguel, E. I)jenguiriabe, and 1). A. R1 Bundy "First Nattionwside Survey of the Health of Schoolchildlren in Chad." li-opital Ihdeficine and International Health 7(7): 625-3(0. Bolivia) 5(l): Bennctt, Herman, and Norman Loavza "Sesgos de politica econ6mica cuando las autoridades fiscales v moentarias tinenc objectivos diferentes." Recista de.inalisis (Banco C'entral de Beck. 'I'hiorstci. 2)1(12. "Deposit Insurance as Private Club: Is Benton, B., J. Bump, A. Seketeli, and 13. Liese. 200)2. "Partnership Gern-nv nlmodel"' a!)naterlt1 Rcj'ievw of Economins andepinante and Promise: Evolution of the African River-Blindness Cam- 42(4): paigns." Anne' of 1hopi(al.lledicineandl.. ' I ))2. "Finanicial DIevelopment and lnternational 'Irade: Benveniste, L. 200(12. "'T'he Political StrLctuiration of Assessment: Is 'I[hcre a Link." Jonruna of International Enonomit-s 57(1): Negotiating State Power and l.egitimacy." (.omparata.'e 11) Education Review 46()): )3. "Financial D)ependence and International 'Itrade." Berger, A. N., Leora F Klapper, and (ircgory F. I dclil "'I'he Review of International I'eonomiir 112(): Ability of Banks to L.end to Informationally Opaque Small Bank Researth Output 149

154 Businesses." Journal of Banking and Finance 25(12): Bloch, Francis, and Vijayendra Rao "'Terror as a Bargaining 67. Instrument: A Case Study of Dowry Violence in Rural India." Bergey, P. K.. C. T. Ragsdale, and M. Hoskote "A Simulated American Economic Review 92(4): Annealing Genetic Algorithm for the Electrical Power Dis- tricting Problem." Annals of Operations Research 121(1-4): Blondel, J., and N. Nanning "D)o Nlinisters D)o What They Say? Ministerial UTnreliability, Collegial. and Hierarchical Governments." PoliticalS tudies 50(3): Bergquist, N. R "Vector-Borne Parasitic Diseases: New Bloom, Shelah S., David Wypij, and Monica l)as Gupta. 2()()1. Trends in Data Collection and Risk Assessment." Acta Tropica "Dimensions of Women's Autonomy and the Influence on 79(1): Maternal Health Care lltilization in a North Indian City." Bergquist, R., M. Al-Sherbiny, R. Barakat, and R. Olds Demographv 38(1): "Blueprint for Schistosomiasis Vaccine Development." Acta Tropica 82(2): Berkelaar, Arjan, and Roy Kouwenberg "Retirement Saving with Contribution Payments and Labor Income as a 26(5): Benchmark for Investments." Journal of Economic Dynamics Bourguignon. Franyois. and Christian NMorrison. 20(02. "Inequaland Control 27(6): Berkelaar, Arjan, Phornchanok Cumperayot, and Roy Kouwenberg. Review 92(4): Bongini, Paola, Luc Laeven, and Giovanni Majnoni "How Good Is the Nlarket at Assessing Bank Fragility? A Horse Race between Different Indicators." Journa/o BankingandFinan,c ity among World Citizens: " A.mirican Economic "The Effect of VaR-Based Risk Management on Asset Bourguignon. Francois, Miartin Fournier, and Mlarc Gurgand. 2(0(01. Prices and the Volatility Smile." European Financial M4anagement "Fast Development with a Stable Income Distribution: 'Iaiwan, 8(2): " Review of Income and lealth 47(2): Besant-Jones, John E., and Bernard Tenenbaum "Lessons from California's Power Crisis." Finance anddevelopment38(3): Braga, B., and J. Granit "Workshop 4 (Synthesis): Critcria for Priorities between Competing Water Interests in a (atch ment." W1ater Science and 7Dchnology 47(6): Bhargava, A., and B. Bigombe "Public Policies and the Orphans of AIDS in Africa." British MedicalJournal326(7403): (January): Biggs, Tyler, Nlayank Raturi, and Pradeep Srivastava Brandt, L., J. K. Huang, G. Li, and S. Rozelle "Land Rights in Rural China: Facts, Fictions, and Issues." China.lournl,u Broadman, Harry G "'I'he Business(es) of the Chinese "Ethnic Networks and Access to Credit: Evidence from the State." WlorldEconomy 24(7): Manufacturing Sector in Kenya." Journal of EconomicBehavior "Competition and Busincss Entrx in Russia." Finan(f and Organization 49(4): and Dev/elopment 38(2): Bisogno, Marcelo, and Alberto Chong "On the Determinants Broadman, Harry G., and Francesca Recanatini "Corruption of Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina." Economics of and l'olicy: Back to the Roots." Journal of Policy Reform 5(1): Transition 10(2): "Poverty and Inequality in Bosnia and Herzegov- Brooker, S "The Potential of Rapid Screening Methods for ina after the Civil War." World Development 30(1): Schistosoma NMansoni in Western Kenya." Annals of Tropi'al Blas, Erik, and N. Hearst "Health Sector Reform and AledicineandParasitologv95(4): Equity: Learning from Evidence?" Health Policy and Planning Brooker, S., S. I. Hay, and 1). A. P. Bundy "Tools from Ecol- 17(1): 1-4. ogy: UTscful for Evaluating Infection Risk Nlodels?" 7'rnds in Blas, Erik, and NI. Limbambala "The Challenge of Parasitology 18(2): Hospitals in Health Sector Reform: The Case of Zambia." Brooker, S., NI. Beaslcy, NI. Ndinarotan, E. NI. Nladjioturoum, NI. Health Policy and Planning 16(2): Baboguel, E. Djenguinabe. S. 1. Hay, and D. A. P. Bundy. 20( "Ulser-Payment, Decentralization, and Health "Use of Remote Sensing and a Geographical Information Service Utilization in Zambia." Health Polity and Planning 16(2): System in a National Hclminth Control Programme in Chad." Bulletin of the World Health OQganization 8((1(): Bank Research Oulpua

155 Bryce, J., S. el Arifeen, G. Pariyo, C. E Lanata, David Gwatkin, Canagarajah, Sudharshan, and Saji Thomas "Poverty in a and J. P. Habicht "Reducing Child Mortality: Can Wealthy Economy: The Case of Nigeria." Journal of African Public Health Deliver?" Lancet 362(9378): Economies 10(2): Buckley, Robert, Elena Klepikova, and Robert van Order Canagarajah, Sudharshan, C. Newman, and R. Bhattamishra "Quantifying Lending Risks without Historical Data: An Appli- "Non-Farm Income, Gender, and Inequality: Evidence from cation of Stress Tests to Mortgage Lending in Russia." Rural Ghana and Uganda." Food Policy 26(4): Journal of Housing Economics 10(3): Carpenter, L. M., A. Kamali, M. Payne, S. Kiwuuwa, P. Kintu, J. Bulut, A., N. Ortayli, K. Ringheim, J. Cottingham, T. M. M. Nakiyingi, J. Kinsman, N. Nalweyiso, M. A. Quigley, J. E Farley, A. Peregoudov, C. Joanis, S. Palmore, M. Brady, J. Diaz, Kengeya-Kayondo, and J. A. G. Whitworth "Independent G. Ojeda, and R. Ramos "Assessing the Acceptability, Effects of Reported Sexually Transmitted Infections and Service Delivery Requirements, and Use-Effectiveness of the Sexual Behavior on HIV-1 Prevalence among Adult Women, Diaphragm in Colombia, Philippines, and Turkey." Contracep- Men, and Teenagers in Rural Uganda." Journal of Acquired tion 63(5): Immune Deficiency Syndromes 29(2): Burnside, Craig "On Contingent Liabilities and the Like- Carter, Michael, and Y. Yao "Local versus Global Separability lihood of Fiscal Crises." ComparativeEconomicStudies44(1): in Agricultural Household Models: The Factor Price Equal- Burnside, Craig, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo ization Effect of Land Transfer Rights in China." Amenican "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis." Journal Journal of Agricultural Economics 84(3): of Political Economy 109(6): Carvalho, Soniya, Gillian Perkins, and Howard White "Social Butzer, Rita, Donald F. Larson, and Yair Mundlak Funds, Sustainability, and Institutional Development Impacts: "Intersectoral Migration in Venezuela." Economic Development Findings from an OED Review." Journal of International and Cultural Change 50(2): Development 14(5): Butzer, Rita, Yair Mundlak, and Donald F. Larson Caussy, D., P. Kumar, and U. T Sein "Health Impact Assess- "Intersectoral Migration in Southeast Asia: Evidence from ment Needs in Southeast Asian Countries." Bulletin of the World Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines." Journal of Agricul- Health Oganization 81(6): turalandappliedeconomics 35: Chakraborty, S., and K. Frick "Factors Influencing Private Byerlee, Derek, and Ken Fischer "Accessing Modern Health Providers' Technical Quality of Care for Acute Respi- Science: Policy and Institutional Options for Agricultural Biotech- ratory Infections among Under-Five Children in Rural West nologyin Developing Countries." WorldDevelopment30(6): Bengal, India." Social Science andmedicine 55(9): Byerlee, Derek, and Rinku Murgai "Sense and Sustainability Chandra, Vandana, David Franck, and Nadeem Naqvi Revisited: The Limits of Total Factor Productivity Measures "World Increasing Returns and Production Subsidies." of Sustainable Agricultural Systems." Agricultural Economics Economica 69(274): (3): Chang, Roberto, and Giovanni Majnoni "Financial Crises: Cadot, Olivier, Jaime de Melo, and Marcelo Olarreaga Fundamentals, Beliefs, and Financial Contagion." European "Harmonizing External Quotas in an FTA: A Step Backward?" Economic Review, 46(4-5): Economics and Politics 14(3): Chen, Shaohua, and Martin Ravallion "How Did the World's "The Protectionist Bias of Duty Drawbacks: Poorest Fare in the 1990s?" Review of Income and Wealth 47(3): Evidence from Mercosur." Journal of International Economics (1): Chiuri, Maria Concetta, Giovanni Ferri, and Giovanni Majnoni. Calder6n, Cesar Augusto, Alberto Chong, and Norman Loayza "The Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Capital Require "Determinants of Current Account Deficits in Developing ments in Emerging Economies: Past Evidence to Assess the Countries." Contributions to Macroeconomics 2(1). Future." Journal of Banking and Finance 26(5): Camargo, Jose Marcio, and Francisco H. G. Ferreira "Miss- Chomitz, Kenneth M "Baseline, Leakage, and Measurement ing the Target: Assessing Social Expenditures in Brazil." Browfn Issues: How Do Forestry and Energy Projects Compare?" Journal of lvorld Affairs 8(2): Climate Policy 2(1): Bank ResearEh Output 151

156 Chomitz, Kenneth M., and Timothy S. Thomas "Deter- "Gender Issues in the Community-Directed 'treatment with minants of Land Use in Amaz6nia: A Fine-Scale Spatial Analy- Ivermectin (CDTI) of the African Programme for Onchoccrsis." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 85(4): ciasis Control (APOC)." Annals of Tropiral 1ledicine and Para- Claessens, Stijn, and Simeon Djankov "Privatization sitology 96(1): Benefits in Eastern Europe." Journal of Public Economics 83(3): Collier, Paul The Future of Perennial Crops." Alfrican Development Review/Revue Africaine de DAeeloppement 14(2): Claessens, Stijn, Simeon Djankov, and Leora Klapper "Resolution of Corporate Distress in East Asia." Journal of Collier, Paul, and David Dollar "Can the World Cut lpoverty EmpiricalFinance 10(1-2): in Half? How Policy Reform and Effective Aid Can Meet Claessens, Stijn, Thomas Glaessner, and Daniela Klingebiel International Development Goals." lworlddevelopment 29(11): "Electronic Finance: Reshaping the Financial Landscape around the World." Journal of Financial Services Research 22(1-2): "Aid Allocation and Poverty Reduction." European Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler Economic Ret'ieu' 46(8): "The Future of Stock Exchanges in Emerging Economies: Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler "On the Incidence of Civil Evolution and Prospects." Brookings-Wharton Papers on Finan- War in Africa." Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(1): ial Services, pp Collier, Paul, and Nicholas Sambanis "Understanding Civil Claessens, Stijn, Simeon Djankov, Joseph P. H. Fan, and Larry H. War:ANewAgenda." JournalofGonflictResolution46(1): P. Lang "Disentangling the Incentive and Entrenchment Considine, Timothy J., and Donald E Larson l lnccrtainty Effects of Large Shareholdings." Journal of Finance 57(6): and the Convenience Yield in Crude Oil Price Backwarda tions." Energy Economics 23(5): Clark, A "Returns to Human Capital Investment in a Tran- Cord, Louise, and Quentin WVodon "Do Agricultural Programs sition Economy: The Case of Russia." International Journal of in Mexico Alleviate Povertv? Evidence from the Ejido Sector." Manpower 24(1): Cuadernos de Economfa 38(114): Clarke, George R. G "How Institutional Quality and Coricelli, Fabrizio, and Simeon Djankov "I lardened Bud- Economic Factors Impact Technological Deepening in Devel- gets and Enterprise Restructuring: 'I'heory and an Application oping Countries." Journal of International Development 13(10): to Romania." Journal of Comparative Econonins 29(4): Cropper, Maureen, Jyotsna Puri, and Charles Griffiths "The Effect of Medicaid on Cash Assistance to the "Predicting the Location of Deforestation: 'I'he Role of Roads Aged and Disabled Poor." Public Finance Review' 31(1): and Protected Areas in North'l hailand." LandEconomics 77(2): Clarke, George R. G., and Robert Cull "Political and Eco nomic Determinants of the Likelihood of Privatizing Argentine Cruces, G., and Quentin Wodon "Transient and Chronic Public Banks." Journal of Lau' and Economics 45(1): Poverty in Turbulent Times: Argentina " Econoin- Clarke, George R. G., and Lixin Colin Xu "Privatization, ics Bulletin 9(3): Competition, and Corruption: How Characteristics of Bribe Csaki, Csaba "The Changing Farming StructLre in Russia: Takers and Payers Affect Bribe Payments to [Jtilities." Notadi Status and Potential Solutions." EconomicSvstems 26(2): Lavoro (Fondazione eni Enrico Mattei, Milan) 82: Csaki, Csaba, and Zvi Lerman "Land and Farm Structure Clarke, George R. G., Claude Nlenard, and Ana Mlaria Zuluaga. in Transition: The Case of Poland." Eurasian Geography and lero "Measuring the Welfare Effects of Reform: Urban Water nomics 43(4): Supply in Guinea." World Development 30(9): "Land Reform and Farm Restructuring in Moldova: Clarke, P "Culture and Classroom Reform: The Case of A Real Breakthrough?" Problems ofpost-communism 49(1): the District Primary Education Project, India." Comparative Cull, Robert, Jana Matesova, and Mary Shirley. 2(02. "Ownership Education 39(1): Structure and the Temptation to l,oot: Evidence from Priva- Clemmons, L., U. V. Amazigo, A. C. Bissek, M. Noma, U. Oyene, tized Firms in the Czech Republic." Journal of (.'omnparatize tu. Ekpo. J. Nlsuya-Mpanju, S. Katenga, and A. Seketeli Economics 30(1): Bank Research Output

157 Cull, Robert, Lemma XV Senbet. and NMarco Sorge "The Datt, Gaurav, Dean Jolliffe, and NManohar Sharma "A Effcct of Deposit Insurance on Financial Depth: A Cross- Profile of Egypt." African Development Review, 13(2): (Country Analysis." Quarter/lv Review of Economics and Finance de Ferranti, David, Danny Leipziger, and P. S. Srinivas (4): "The Future of Pension Reform in Latin America." Finance and CLunninghalm, Wendy V., and William E Nlaloney "Hetero- Development 39(3): gencity among Mexico's Mlicroenterprises: An Application of F actor and Cluster Analysis." Economic Development andcultural Deininger, Klaus "Agrarian Reforms in Eastern European Countries: Lessons from International Experience." Journalof (.h/iaun 50(1): International Development 14(7): )ahi\ a. B "Hard Struggle and Soft Gains: Environmental "Determinants and Impacts of Rural Land Market Management, Civil Society, and Governance in Pammal, South Activity: Evidence from Nicaragua." Wltorld Development 31: India." Environmentand Urbanization 15(1): Dancl. I.. C. Berg, C. H. Johnson, and H. Atrash "Nlagni- rudc of Nlaternal Morbidity during Labor and Delivery: LJnited "Does Cost of Schooling Affect Enrollment by the Poor? Universal Primary Education in Uganda." Economics of Statcs, " American Journal of Public Health 93(4): Education Review, 22(3): Djarnton-Hill, 1., NI. XV Bloem, B. de Benoist, and L. R. Brown "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda, 20(02. "Nlicronutrient Restoration and Fortification: Commu : Panel Data Evidence." Development Poliy Review nicaring Changc, Benefits, and Risks." Asia Pacific Journal of 21: (f.yinia'lnx'utrition 11(6): I )as, J., and S. Das "Trust. Learning, and Vaccination: A Case Deininger, Klaus, and Bart Minten "Determinants of Defor- estation and the Economics of Protection: An Application to StudV of a North Indian V'illage." Social Science and,lfedicine57(1): Mexico." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 84(4): D)asgupta, Susmita, Bcnoit Laplante, and Nlandu Mamingi Deininger, Klaus, Nlarito Garcia, and Kalanidhi Subbarao "Plollution and Capital NIarkets in Developing Countries." Jour- "AIDS-Induced Orphanhood as a Systemic Shock: NlagninalotEnvironmcntalEconomiicsand.lManagement42(3): tude, Impact, and Program Interventions in Africa." World I)asgupta, Susmita, Robert E. B. Lucas, and David Wheeler Development 31(7): "Plant Size, Industrial Air Pollution, and Local Incomes: Evidence from Nlexico and Brazil." Environmentand Develop- ment E'onomins 7(2): Economies 11(1): I)asgupta, Susmita. Nlandu NMamingi, and Craig Nleisner "Pesticide UTse in Brazil in the Era of Agroindustrialization ler "Financial Globalization: UJnequal Blessings." Interand Globalization." Environment and Development Economics national Finance 5(3): Dekker, NMarleen, and Hans Hoogeveen "Bride Wealth and Household Security in Rural Zimbabwe." Journal of African de la Torre, Augusto, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, and Sergio L. Schmuk- 6(4): "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and D)asgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Hua Wang, and David Wlheclcr "Confronting the Environmental Kuznets C(iurvc." Jornwal of Economic Perspectives 16(1): IDasgupta. Susmita, Craig NMeisner, David Wheeler, and Yanhong Jin "Agricultural 'Irade, Development, and Toxic Risk." Fall of Argentina's Currency Board." Economia: Johrnal of the LatinAmericanandCaribbean EconomicsAssociation 3(2): Del Ninno, C., P. A. Dorosh, and L. C. Smith "Public Pol- icy, Markets, and Household Coping Strategies in Bangladesh: Avoiding a Food Security Crisis following the 1998 Floods." llworld Development 30(8): World Development 31(7): I)att, Gaurav, and Hans Hoogevecn "El Nino or El Peso? Crisis., Povcrtv, and Income Distribution in the Philippines." litor/dljce2e/opmient 31(7): and Development 39(1): l)att. G;auras, and Nlartin Ravallion "Is India's Economic Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?" Journal of Economic Demekas, Dimitri G., J. Herderschee, J. NMcHugh, and S. Mitra "Southeastern Europe after the Kosovo Crisis." Finance Demirgi0,-Kunt, Aslh, and Enrica Detragiache "Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Pcl;pectives 16(3): Investigation." Journal of MIonetary Economics 49(7): Bonk Research Output 153

158 Demirgui,-Kunt, Aslh, and Edward J. Kane "Cross-Country Djankov, Simeon, and Caroline Freund "New Borders: Evidence on Deposit Insurance." Quarterly Review of Econom- Evidence from the Former Soviet Union." Weltwirtschaftliches ics and Finance 42(4): ArchivlReviewu of World Economics 138(3): "Deposit Insurance around the Globe: Where Does "Trade Flows in the Former Soviet Union, 1987 to It Work?" Journal of Economic Perspectives 16(2): " Journal of Comparative Economics 30(1): Demirgu,c-Kunt, Aslh, and Vojislav Maksimovic "Funding Djankov, Simeon, and Peter Murrell "Enterprise Restruc- Growth in Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: turing in Transition: A Quantitative Survey." Journal of Economic Evidence from Firm-Level Data." Journal of FinancialEconomics Literature 40(3): (3): Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio L6pez-de-Silanes, and Denizer, Cevdet A., Murat F. lyigun, and Ann Owen Andrei Schleifer "The Regulation of Entry." Quarterly "Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility." Contributions to Journal of Economics 117(1): Macroeconomics 2(1) "Courts." Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(2): Denizer,CevdetA., Holger Wolf, and YvonneYing "House- Dollar, David "Is Globalization Good for Your Health?" hold Savings in the Transition." Journal of Comparative Economics Bulletin of the World Health Organization 79(9): (3): Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay "Trade, Growth, and Poverty." Dessus, Sebastien, and David O'Connor "Climate Policy Finance and Development 38(3): without Tears: CGE-Based Ancillary Benefits Estimates for "Growth Is Good for the Poor." Journal of Economic Chile." Environmental and Resource Economics 25(3): Growth 7(3): Devarajan, Shantayanan, William Easterly, and Howard Pack "Spreadingthe Wealth." Foreign Affairs8l(1): "Is Investment in Africa Too High or Too Low? Macro "Institutions, Trade, and Growth." Journal of and Micro-Evidence." Journal of African Economies 10(2): Monetary Economics 50(1): Diaz-Olavarrieta, C., A. N. Turner, E. Ellertson, J. E Helzner, and Dollar, David, Raymond Fisman, and Roberta Gatti "Are E. Ezeurra "Policy Climate, Scholarship, and Provision Women Really the 'Fairer' Sex? Corruption and Women in of Emergency Contraception at Affiliates of the International Government." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Planned Parenthood Federation in Latin America and the 46(4): Caribbean." Contraception 65(2): Doma,, Ilker, and Magda Kandil "On the Performance and Di Leva, Charles "The Conservation of Nature and Natural Practicality of Nominal GDP Targeting in Germany." Journal Resources through Legal and Market-Based Instruments." of Economic Studies 29(2-3): Review of European Community and International Environmental Drake, L. J., and D. A. P. Bundy "Multiple Helminth Infec- Law 11(1): tions in Children: Impact and Control." Parasitology 122, suppl.: Dinar, Ariel, and Gabriel Keynan "Economics of Paid S73-S81. Extension: Lessons from Experience in Nicaragua." American D'Silva, E "Participation and Empowerment through Journal of Agricultural Economics 83(3): Community Institutions: Lessons from Adilabad District, Dinar, Ariel, and A. Xepapadeas "Regulating Water Andhra Pradesh." Journalof RuralDevelopment 21(3): Quantity and Quality in Irrigated Agriculture: Learning by Dziekan, G., D. Chisholm, B. Johns, J. Rovira, and Y. J. F. Hutin. Investing under Asymmetric Information." Environmental "The Cost-Effectiveness of Policies for the Safe and Modeling and Assessment 7(1): Appropriate Use of Injection in Healthcare Settings." Bulletin Dinc, Mustafa, Kingsley E. Haynes, and Murat Tarimcilar of the World Health Organization 81(4): "Integrating Models for Regional Development Decisions: A Easterly, William "Can Institutions Resolve Ethnic Conflict?" Policy Perspective." Annals of Regional Science 37(1): Economic Development and Cultural Change 49(4): "The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Dixon, John A., and Gayatri Acharya "Can the Environment Development." Journal of Economic Growth 6(4): Wait in a Developing Country?" South African Journal of "The Cartel of Good Intentions." Foreign Policy Economics and Management Sciences 5(2): (July-August): Bank Research Output

159 lifert, Benn, Alan Geil, and Nils Borje 'I'allroth "Mlanag- Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi "The Spatial Division ing Oil W'ealth: 'I'he Plolitical Economy of Oil-Exporting of Labor in Nepal." JournalofDevelopmentStudies39(6): Countries-Why Some of Them Have Done So Poorly." Finance Fajnzylber, Pablo, Daniel Lederman, and Norman Loayza and Deuvelopient 40(1): "Inequality and Violent Crime." Journal of Law and Econotnics Ekcn, Sena, [)avid A. Robalino, and George Schieber (1): "Living l3etter: Improving Human Development Indicators in "What Causes Violent Crime?" European Economic NIENA Will Requirc Different Approaches to Health, Educa- Review, 46(7): tion, and Social Protection." Finane and Development 40(1): Fenech, A., J. Foster, K. Hamilton, and R. Hansell "Natural Capital in Ecology and Economics: An Overview." Elbadawi.Ibrahim, and Nicholas Sambanis "How Much War Environmentalyffonitoring andassessment 86(1-2): WN'ill \We See? Explaining the Prevalence of Civil WVar." Ferreira, Francisco H. G "Education for the NMasses? The Journal of Conflict Rcsolution 46(3): Interaction between Wealth, Educational, and Political InequallIbers. (Chris, Jcan 0. Lanjouw, and IPeter Lanjouw "Micro- ities." Economics of Transition 9(2): L.e el Estimation of Poverty and Inequality." Econometrica Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Phillippe G. Leite l,c:fl,:, 71(1): the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil: Can Micro- Elistc, Paavo, and Per G. Fredriksson "Environmental economic Simulations Help?" Economia 3(2): Rcgulationis, 'Iransfers, and Trade: Thleory and Evidence." Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Julie A. Litchfield Jour/nal ol Enzvironmental Economics and.ianagement 43(2): "Education or Inflation? The Nlicro and NMacroeconomics of the Brazilian Income Distribution during " Cuadernos de Ellerman, David "Should Development Agencies Have Economia38(114): Official Views?" Development in Prectice 12(3-4): Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Peter Lanjouw, and Mlarcelo Neri Eskeland, Gtunnar S.. and Ann E. Harrison "NMoving to Greener llastures? Multinationals and the Pollution Haven Hypothesis." Journial of Development Economics 70(1): Estachc, Antonio, Vivien Foster, and Q(uentin NVodon "Nlak- Fundamentals of 'T'echnical Analysis: Analyzing the Informaing Infrastructurc Reform WNork for the Poor." (,EP.AL Review 78: Modeling 19(3): "A Robust Poverty Profile for Brazil Using Multiple Data Sources." RevistaBrasileiradeEconomia 57(1): Fiess, Norbert M., and Ronald MacDonald "'rowards the tion Content of High, Low, and Close Prices." Economic Estaclhc, Antonio, Andres Gomcz-Lobo, and Danny Leipziger. Filmer, Deon, and David L. Lindauer "Does Indoncsia ftilities Prii-atization and the Poor: Lessons and Evi- Have a'low Pay'Civil Service?" Bulletin ofindonesian Economic de ncc fronm Latin America." llot-/ddevelopment 29(7): Studies 37(2): Estachc. Antonio, NIlarianela Gonzalez, and Lourdes Trujillo Filmer, Deon, and Lant H. Pritchett "Environmental Degra- "Efficiency Gains from Port Reform and the Potential for Yard- dation and the Demand for Children: Searching for the Vicious stick (.ompetition: Lessons from NMexico." lworlddevelopment Circle in Pakistan." Environment and Development Economics 30(4): (1): "What Does 'Privatization' Do for Efficiency? Evi- Finneran, Lisa, and Morgan Kelly "Social Networks and dencc from Argentina's and Brazil's Railways." 1orld Develop- Inequality." Journal of Urban Economics 53(2): mnct 30()11): Fisman, Raymond, and Roberta Gatti "Decentralization Estachc, Antonio, Nlarco Mlanacorda, and Tommaso N1. Valletti. and Corruption: Evidence across Countries." Journal of Public "'I1elccommunications Reform, Access Regulation, and Economics 83(3): Internet Adoption in Latin America." Economia: Journal of the "Decentralization and Corruption: Evidence from Latin.lmerican and Cnaibbean Economic Association 2(2): U.S. Federal Transfer Programs." Public Choice 113(1-2): Ev enett, Simon J., Nlargaret C. Levenstein, and V7alerie Y. Suslow. Fisman, Raymond, and Inessa Love "Trade Credit, Finan- 2()01. "International Cartel Enforcement: Lessons from the cial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth." s." ll'orld Economy 24(9): Journal of Finance 58(1): Bank Research Output 155

160 Fiszhein, Ariel "Instituci6nes, provision de servicios y exclusijn social. Estudio de caso del sector educaci6n en Glewwc, Paul "Schools and Skills in Deeloping Countries: Education Policies and Socioecononmic Ouitcomes." Jou-nal of Buenos Aires." l)iyarrollo Economnico 41(162): E.onomic Literature 40(2): F"ofack, Hippolyte, and J. P. Nolan "D)istribution of Gilewwe, IPaul, Nlichelice Gragnolati. and Halssan Zaman Parallel Exchange Rates in African Countries." Journal of "WTho Gained from V'ietnam's lboom in the 1990s?" l'conomni Internationallloneiv and Jinance 20(7): (1. Developnent and Cultural ( - S(0(4): Forestier, Emmanuel, Jeremy Grace, and Charles Kenny Glewvwe, Paul, Itanan G. Jacob', and Elizabeth NI. King. 2001, "Can Information and Communications 'T'echnologies Be "Earlv Childhood Nutrition and Academic Achicvement: A Lon- Pro-Poor?" iilecommunications Policy 26(11): gitudinal Analysis." Joaiwal/of lpnbic Economnios 81(3): Foster, Vivien, and Susana Nlourato "Testing for Consistency in Contingent Ranking Experiments." Journal of Environmen- tal Economics and illanagement 44(2): (3): Goh, C.-C "Combating Iodine D)eficiency: Lessons from China, Indonesia, and Nladagascar." Food and Autrition Bulletin "Elicitation Format and Sensitivity to Scope: DO Goldman, N., A. R. Pcble. and NI. Gragnolati "( hoices about Contingent Valuation and Choice Experiments Give the Same 'I'reatment for ARI and Diarrhea in Rural Guatemala." Social Results?" EInvironuental and Resource '.onomijs 24(2): S'ciene- ant i.iledi-iut.55(10): oulon, Jerome, Paul Lanoic, and Benoit Laplante "Incentives Gong, Liu 'Iang, and Heng-fu Zoo "D)irect P'refercnces for for Pollution Control: Regulation or Information?" Journal of En2viron,nental Econo,nits and I/... ' EFraneois, Joseph, and Will Nlartin "Formula Approaches for 247-7(0. Nlarket Access Negotiations." lworld Economv 26(1): Frankel, Jeffrey A., Eduardo Fajnzylber, Sergio L. Sehmukler, WNealth, the Risk Premium PuzZlc, Growth, and Policy Effcc- J' 4' 1): tiveness.".lournal of l'conomic Dl)nainics an/d Conhtlol 26(2): "Effects of Growth and V'olatility in Public ExpCei- ditures on Economic Grosth: 'Iheory and IEvidence." AnnuL and Luis Serven "Verifying Exchange Rate Regimes." of LEnontics and l"inanrc 3(2): 379-4(06. lournal of Dr2elop;nent Economits 66(2): Fratkin, E., and R. Mearns. 20(03. "Sustainability and l'astoral. 2(0(02. "Optimal 'TI axation and Intergovernmental 'Iransfecr in a Dlynamic Mlodel wsith NllultipiC I.evcs of (Goverrnient." Livelihoods: Lessons from East African Nlaasai and Nlongolia." Jonrnnal of Economic l)y/a;nbis ande('ont/ol 26(12): (0)3. Hunmant Otganization 62(2): C, rassly, N. C., K. Desai. E. PI'egurri, A. Sikazve, 1. Nlalarnbo, C. Freeman, Paul K.. and Howard Kunreuther. 20(02. "Environmen- Siamatowe, and 1). uindv. 2(103. "'I'e Econonmic Impact if tal Risk Nlanagement for DevelopingCountries." Genrta Papers HIV/AIDS on the Education Sector in Zambia.".1U)DS 17(7): on Risk and Insurance: Issues andpractice 27(2): Friedman, Jed. 2(0(03. "Gender Dimensions of Support for the (Gratcheva, E. NI.. and J. E. Falk. 2)003. "Optimal D)eviations froim Elderly in Vietnam." Research on.1ging 25: (1. an Asset Allocation." (C'omnputes and Opei-ations Reseal-th 30() 1): Galindo, Arturo Jose, and William F. Nlaloney. 2(0(02. "Second Moments in Specuilative Attack Models: Panel Evidence." Journal of Intcrwational Etconombis 56(1): (' i... R., E. D)usch, L.. Elder, E. Achadi, and R. Grajeda. nology 47(6): Grey, D.. and C. Sadoff. 2(003. "Bevond the River: 'I'he B3enefits of Cooperationt on International Rivers." Miater.-Scitnc anfd l`th "Woomen's Perceptions of Iron Deficiency and Anemia Grootaert, Christiaan, Gi-'Iaik Oh, and Anand Swanin. 2(0(02. "Social Prevention and Control in Eight l)evcloping Countries." Social Science and,1ledicine 55(4): Gao, J., J. C. Qian, S. L. 'Iang, B. Eriksson, and E. Blas "Health Equity in '[ransition from Planned to Nlarket Capital, Househlold WVelfare, and Poverty in Burkina Faso5.".on/- nalof.ljican.ononoies 11 (1: Gross, B. A., and 11. Burger. 2(0(02. "Breastfeeding Patterns and Return to Fertility in Australian NVomen." ;lustmalian aned.lvcw Economy in China." Heailth Polic and l'anning 17(1): Zealand,Journal of Obste-trics and Gy,naecolog 42(2): Gauri, Varun, and Peyvand Khaleghian. 211(12. "Immunization in Gulyani, Sumila. 2()()1. "Effects of Poor 'Iransportation on Lean Developing Countries: Its Political and Organizational Production and Industrial (lusterilig: Evidence from the Indian l)eterminants." llorld Deuelopment130(12): Auto Industrr." ilolo-rilnd'cclopinmnt 2 9 (7): Bank Research Output

161 Gunning, Jan W., and 'Iave Nlengistac "Determinants of Hellman, Joel, and Daniel Kaufmann 'Confronting the African Manufacturing Investment: The Nlicroeconomic Ev idence.".oarnal of.lfrican Ec-onomies 10(2): and Development 38(3): (Ginter. B. G "What's Wrong with the HIPC Initiative and What's Next?" De-e/opmentPolicy Review' 20(1): Gupta, Sanijecv, Hamid Davoodi, and Rosa Alonso-Terme "I)oes (Corruption Affect Income Inequalitv and Poverty?" Eono/oni(s of Go(verinance 3(1): (;william, Ken, and Nlasami Kojima "LTrban 'Transport Challenge of State Capture in'transition Economies." Finance Hendley, K., P. Nlurrell, and Randi Ryterman "Agents of Change or Linchanging Agents? 'I'he Role of Lawyers within Russian Industrial Enterprises." Law and Social Inquirv- Journalof the American BarFoandation 26(3): Hentschel, Jesko, and William F. Waters "Rural Poverty in Ecuador: Assessing Local Realities for the Development of Policy and the Environment.".lsian Jonrnal 9(1): Anti-Poverty Programs." torld Development 30(1): (Gvapong, J.., 1). Kvelem, l. Kleinschmidt, K. Agbo, F. Ahouan- Heuveline,P.,NI. Guillot, and D. R. Gwatkin "The Ufneven'Fides dogbo, J. Gaba, G. OwusLI-Banahene, S. Sanou, Y. K. Sodahlon, of the Health Transition." KSocialScienceandAIledicine55(2): G. Bliswas, Kale, D. H. Nlolyneux, J. B. Roungou, NI. C. Hicks, Norman, and Quentin Wodon "Social Protcction for 'I'homson. and J. Remme "I'he Uise of Spatial Analysis the Poor in Latin America." f^fpal Review 73: in Mapping the Distribution of Bancroftian Filariasis in Four West African Countries." Annals of Tropical Medicine and Parasitoloyy 96(7): IradeRevieiwr 1(): Hall. Andrcw, Edward Nliguel, and others "Anemia in Sclhoolchildren in Eight Countries in Africa and Asia." Public Hoekman, Bernard "Strengthening the Global 'I'rade Architecture for Development: The Post Doha Agenda." Tlorld Hockman, Bernard, and Petros C. Mlavroidis "Economic Development, Competition Policy, and the WXorld 'l'rade Health Nutrition 4: Organization." Journal of l7orldtrade 37(1): Hlaltiwanger. John C., and Nlilan Vodopivec "Gross Worker Hoekman, Bernard, and Nlarcelo Olarreaga "tine proposiand Joh Ulows in a 'I'ransition Economy: An Analysis of tion pour l'onic: La 'super' clause de nation plus favorisee." Estonia." I.abour Economics 9(5): Reflets et Perspectives de la lie Economique 2: hlamilton, K., and J. A. Dixon "Measuring the Wealth of Holzmann, Robert, and S. Jorgensen "Social Risk Nations." Elnziron,nenta/l Monitoring and Assessment 86(1-2): NManagement: A New Conceptual Framework for Social Protection, and Beyond." International Tax and Public Finance I lammer. Jcffrev, and William Jack "Designing Incentives 8(4): tor Ruiral Health Care Providers in Developing Countries." Homeida, NI., E. Braide, E. Elhassan, U. V Amazigo, B. Liese, B. Journal of l)eelopmnent Economics 69(1): Benton, NI. Noma, D. Etya'ale, K. Y. Dadzie, Kale, and Harms,1P. Aaditva Nlattoo, and L. Schuknecht "Explaining A. Seketeli "APOC's hurf.[rcl of Community-Directed Liberalization C(ommitments in Financial Services 'Frade." It cmtwir/tshiaftlihchs.a rchiv/revieoe of IVorld Economics 139(1): Treatment with Ivermectin (CDTI) and Its Potential for Pro- viding Additional Health Serv'ices to the Poorest Populations." Annals of T-opicalAMedicine and Parasitology 96(1): I larrison. Glenn N, 'I'homas E Rutherford, and David G. 'Farr "'1ra(ie Liberalization, Poverty, and Efficient Equity." Journal of Dcvclopment E.conomics 71(1): (12): Hearst, N., and E. BIlas "Learning from Experience: Research Honohan, Patrick "Does PPP-Adjusted Data Exaggerate the Relative Size of Poor Economies?".Applied Economics l.etters "Perverse Effects of an External Ratings-Related on Hcalth Sector Reform in the Developing World." Health Capital Adequacy System." Economic Notes 30(3): Polic aitnd Planning 16(2): cclct, Robcrt, 0hlsoji Adevi, and Iris Semini "Nlaking Honohan, Patrick, and Daniela Klingebiel "'The Fiscal Cost Implications of an Accommodating Approach to Banking AI I)S P'art of the Global Development Agenda." Finance anld Crises." Journal of Banking and Finance 27(8): Deeclopincnt 39(1): I legre, Hlvard, and 'I'odd Sandlcr "Economic Analysis of (Civil Wars." Defence and Peace Economics 13(6): Activit, no. 1: Honohan, Patrick, and Brendan Walsh "Catching tilp with the l.caders: 'I'he Irish Hare." Brookings Papers on Economic Bank Research Output 157 l~~~~~~~

162 Hoogeveen, Hans "Evidence on Informal Insurance in Irwvin, Douglas A "Interpreting the 'Tariff-Growth Correla- Rural Zimbabwe." Journal of African Economies 11(2): tion of the Late 19th Century." American Economic Reviewv 92(2): Hoogeveen, Hans, and Remco Oostendorp "On the Use of Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Evaluation of Farm Household Investments in Natural Resource Conservation." Environment and Development Economics 8(2): Isham, Jonathan, and Satu Kahkonen "Institutional Deter- minants of the Impact of Community-Based Water Services: Evidence from Sri Lanka and India." Economic Development Hoogeveen, J. G. XI "Income Risk, Consumption Security, and C.ultural Change 50(3): and the Poor." Oxford Development Studies 30(1): Hotz, V. Joseph, Lixin Colin Xu, NMarta Tienda, and Avner Ahituv. and Development 39(1): Islam, Roumeen "Institutions to Support NMarkets." Finance "Are There Returns to the Wages of Young NMen fronm Jacohy, Hanan G "Is 'I'here an Intrahousehold 'Flypaper Working While in School?" Reviews of Economics and Statistics Effect'? Evidence from a School Feeding Programme." Econo,nic 84(2): Journal 112(476): Hufbauer, Gary, Barbara Kotschwar, and John S. Wilson "Trade and Standards: A Look at Central America." lvorld Jacoby, Hanan G., Guo Li, and Scott Rozelle "Hazards of Expropriation: 'i'enure Insecurity and Investment in Rural Economv 25(7): China." American Economic Review 92(5): lanehovichina, Elena, R. Darwin, and R. Shoemaker Jalan,Jyotsna, and Nlartin Ravallion "Behavioral Responscs "Resource ttse and Technological Progress in Agriculture: to Risk in Rural China." Journal of DezelopmentEconomics 66(1): A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis." Ecological Economics 38(2): "Geographic Povertyv raps? A Nlicro Nodel of Conlanchovichina, Elena, Aaditya Mattoo, and Nlarcelo Olarreaga "Unrestricted Market Access for Sub-Saharan Africa: 17(4): How Nluch Is It Worth and Who Pays?" Journal of African sumption Growth in Rural China." Journalof.lppliedEronometriis "Does Piped WNVater Reduce Diarrhea for Children Economies 10(4): in Rural India?" JournalofEconometrics 112(1): lanchovichina, Elena, Alessandro Nicita, and Isidro Soloaga "Trade Reform and Poverty: The Case of Mexico." Ilorld "Estimating the Benefit Incidence of an Antipoverty Program by Propensity-Score Nlatching." JournalofBusiness and Economy 25(7): Economic Statistics 21(1): Ikhide, Sylvanus I., and Abayomi A. Alawode "On the Sequencing of Financial Liberalisation in Nigeria." South Societv 4(0(4): African Journal of Economics 70(1): Ingco, Merlinda D "Agricultural Policy Reforms in the New Multilateral 'Irade Round." American Journal of Agricultural James, E "Commercialism and the Mission of Nonprofits." Jayawardhana, L. C., A. Nianipura, Alwis A. Do, M. Ranasinghe, S. Pilapitiya, and 1. Abeygunawardcna "BES'I'CONIP: Expert Systenm for Sri Lankan Solid WVaste Composting." Expert Economics 84(3): svstems wzith Applications 24(3): Ingco, Nlerlinda D., and Tonia Kandiero "Export Perfor- Jejeebhoy, Shireen J., and Zeba A. Sathar "WNomen's Autonmance of Bangladesh: A Constant Market Share Analysis." omy in India and Pakistan: 'I'he Influence of Religion and South Asia Economic Journal 3(2): Region." Population and Deuelopment Revie- 27(4): Ipe, Viju C., and Subhash B. Bhagwat "Chicago's Water Market: Dynamics of Demand, Prices, and Scarcity Rents." Applied Economics 34(17): Ipe, Viju C., and others "Simulation of a Group Incentive Jha, P "Avoidable NMortality in India: Past Progress and Future Prospects." NationalfledicalJournal on India 15(1): Jha, I', NI. K. Ranson, S. N. Nguycn, and f). Yach "Estimates of Global and Regional Smoking Prevalence in 1995, by Age Program for Farmer Adoption of Best Management Practices." and Sex." American Journal of Public Health 92(6): 1( Agriculture and Resource Economics Review 30(2): Jha, P1, A. Nlills, K. Hanson, L. Kumaranayake, L. Conteh, C. Iqbal, Farrukh, and Shujiro turata "Small Firm Dynamism in East Asia: An Introductory Overview." Small Business Kturowski, S. N. Nguyen, V 0. Cruz, K. Ranson, L. NI. E. V'az, S. C. Yu. 0. NMorton, and J. D. Sachs "Improving the Economics 18(1-3): Health of the Global Poor." Science 295(5562): Bank Research Output

163 Jin, Jing, and Heng-fu Zou "How Does Fiscal Decentral- ization Affect Aggregate, National, and Subnational Government Size?" Journal of Urban Economics 52(2): Kiss, A., G. Castro, and K. Newcombe "The Role of Johansson, Robert C., Yacov Tsur, Terry L. Roe, Rachid M. ing Sciences 360(1797): Doukkali, and Ariel Dinar "Pricing and Allocation of Irrigation Water: A Review of Theory and Practice." Water Policy 4(2): Journal 68(2): Josodipoero, R. I "Housing Improvement Projects in Indone- sia: Responding to Local Demand." International Journal of EnvironmentalHealth Research 13(1): (4): Kamali, A., J. Kinsman, N. Nalweyiso, K. Nlitchell, E. Kanyesigye, Nlultilateral Institutions." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Senes A-Mathematical, Physical, and Engineer- Knack, Stephen "Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance: Cross-Country Empirical Tests." Southern Economic "Social Capital and the Quality of Government: Evidence from the States." American Journal of PoliticalScience Knack, Stephen, and Omar Azfar "Trade Intensity, Coun- J. E Kengcya-Kayondo, L. NM. Carpenter, A. Nunn, and J. A. G. try Size, and Corruption." Economics of Governance 4(1): Whitworth "A Community Randomized Controlled Trial to Investigate Impact of Improved STD Nlanagement and Knack, Stephen, and P. Zak "Building Trust: Public Policy, Interpersonal Trust, and Economic Development." Supreme Behavioral Interventions on HIV Incidence in Rural Masaka, Court Economic Review, 10: Uganda: Trial Design, NMethods, and Baseline Findings." Tropical,lledicineand InternationalHealth 7(12): Kolev, Alexandre, and Anne Pascal "What Keeps Pension- ers at Work in Russia? Evidence from Household Panel Data." Kaminski, Bartlomiej, and Beata K. Smarzynska "Integra- Economics of Transition 10(1): tion into Global Production and Distribution Networks through FDI: The Case of Poland." Post-Communist Economies 13(3): ics 59(2): Kane, Edward J., and Berry Wilson "Regression Evidence Kraay, Aart "Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies during Speculative Attacks?" Journal of International Econom- Kraay, Aart, and Jaume Ventura "Product Prices and the of Safety-Net Support in Canada and the U.S., " OECD Cycle." Advances in Macroeconomics 2(1). Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42(4): Kaufmann, Daniel, and Aart C. Kraay "Growth Without Economic Review 46(6): Governance." Economfa: Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association 3(1): Keefer, Philip, and Stephen Knack "Polarization, Politics, and Property Rights: Links between Inequality and Growth." "Trade Integration and Risk Sharing." European Krupnick, Alan, Anna Alberini, Maureen Cropper, Nathalie Simon, Bernard O'Brien, Ronald Goeree, and NMartin Hcintzelman "Age, Health, and the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions: A Contingent Valuation Survey of Ontario Public Choice 111(1-2): Residents." Journal of Risk and UTncertainty 24(2): Keefer, Philip, and David Stasavage "Checks and Balances, Laeven, Luc "Financial Constraints on Investments and Private Information, and the Credibility of Nlonetary Credit Policy in Korea." Journal of Asian Economics 13(2): Commitments." International Oiganization 56(4): Kenny, Charles "Development's False Divide." Foreign "International Evidence on the Value of Deposit Polity 134(January-February): Insurance." Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42(4): "The Internet and Economic Growth in Less Devel oped Countries: A Case of Managing Expectations." Oxford "Does Financial Liberalization Reduce Financing Development Studies 31(1): Constraints?" Financial Management 32(1): Khandker, Shahidur R., and Rashid R. Faruqee "The Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan." Agricultural Economics 28(3): Laeven, Luc, and Giovanni Nlajnoni "Loan Loss Provisioning and Economic Slowdowns: Too NMuch, 'Ioo Latc?" JournalofFinancialIntermediation 12(2): Kharas, Homi, Brian Pinto, and S. Ulatov "An Analysis of Lahiri, S., and S. Chanthaphone "Water, Sanitation, and Russia's 1998 NMeltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals." Hygiene: A Situation Analysis Paper for Lao PDR." International Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1: Journal of Environmental Health Research 13(1): Bunk Researth Output 159

164 Lakshminarayanan, R "Decentralization and Its Implications Lerman, Zvi "Agriculture in 'Iransition Economies: From for Reproductive Health: The Philippine Experience." Common Heritage to Divergence." AgricnilturalEconomics 26(2): Reproductive Health Alatters 22(21): Lall, Somik V, and G. Chris Rodrigo "Perspectives on the Lewis, J. D "Promoting Growth and Employment in South Sources of Heterogeneity in Indian Industry." IVorld Develop- Africa." South African Journal of Economics 70(4): ment 29(12): Langenbrunner, J. C. 20(02. "Supplemental Health Insurance: Did Li, Hongyi, and Heng-fu Zou "Inflation, Growth, and Income D)istribution: A Cross-Country Study." Annals of Croatia Miss an Opportunity?" Croatian imfediraljournal 43(4): Economics and Finance 3(1): 85-1 ( Li, Wei, and Lixin Colin Xu "'I'he Political Economy of Lanjouw, Jean O., and Peter Lanjouw "The Rural Non-Farm Sector: Issues and Evidence from Developing Countries." Agricultural Economics 26(1): Economics 30(3): Privatization and Competition: Cross-Country Evidence from the Telecommunications Sector." Joarnal of Comparative Lanjouw, Peter, J. Quizon, and R. Sparrow "Non- Lichtenstein, Natalie G "Law in China's Economic l)evrl- Agricultural Earnings in Peri-Urban Areas of Tanzania: Evidence from Household Survey Data." Food Policy 26(4): spring: Larsen, B "Hygiene and Health in Developing Countries: Defining Priorities through Cost-Benefit Assessments." Inter- national Journal of Environmental Health Research 13(1): PolicT 21(1): Lassibille, Gerard, and Jee-Peng Tan "Are Private Schools More Efficient Than Public Schools? Evidence from Tanzania." opment: An Essay from Afar." Foreign Investment l.aze Journal, Liu, G. G., X. D. Wu, C. Y. Peng, and A. Z. Fu " lrbaniza- tion and Health Care in Rural China." Contemporary Economic Loayza, Norman, H. Lopez, and A. I Tbide. 2()01. "Comovements and Sectoral Interdcpendence: Evidencc for Latin America, East Education Economics 9(2): Asia, and Europe." /ll'fstaff Papers 48(2): Laszlo, A., NI. Rahman, NI. Espinal, and NM. Raviglione Loevinsohn, B., B. Aylward, R. e"' 1, E. Ogden, 'I' Goodman, "Quality Assurance Programme for Drug Susceptibility Testing of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in the WHO/IUA'I'LD and B. Melgaard "Impact of 'Iargeted Programs on Health Systems: A Case Study of the Polio Eradication Initia- Supranational Reference Laboratory Network: Five Rounds of tive." American Journal of Public Health 92(1): Proficiency Testing, " InternationalJournal of Tbercrulosis L6pez-Acevedo, Gladys "Incentivos y desarrollo profcsand l.ung Disease 6(9): Laterveer, L., L. W. Niessen, and A. S. Yazbeck "Pro-Poor Economico 69(3): Health Policies in Poverty Reduction Strategies." Health sional de los profesores en las escuelas mexicanas." El 7rimestre Lovejoy, T "Biodiversity: Dismissing Scientific Process." Policy and Planning 18(2): ScientificAmerican 286(1): Lederman, Daniel, Norman Loayza, and Ana NMaria Menendez. Lundberg, Nlattias, and Lyn Squire "'I'hc Simultaneous "Violent Crime: Does Social Capital Nlatter?" Eronomic Evolution of Growth and Inequality" EcononmicJournal 113(487): Development and Cultural Change 50(3): Lederman, Daniel, Ana Maria Menendez, Guillermo Perry, and Mabey, D)., E Ndowa, and D. Nlaher. 20(02. "Control of Sexually Joseph Stiglitz "Mexican Investment after the Tequila Transmitted Infections." TropicalDoctor32(1): Crisis: Basic Economics, 'Confidence' Effects, or Market Imper- Mahajan, S., and R. J. Sweeney. 20(01. "Strategic Choiccs of fections?"journalofinternationalaloneyandfinance22(1): Quality, Differentiation, and Pricing in Financial Services." Lee, K. V.., K. Cho, and S. J. Lee "Causes of Gender Dis- Journal of Baanking and linance 25(8): crimination in Korean Labor Nlarkets." Asian Journalof Womens Nlaimho, S. NI "The Diagnosis and lprcdiction of Bank Studies 7(2): Failures in /ambia, " DevelopmentPolicy Revietv 20(3): Lendahls, L., L. Ohman, J. Liljestrand, and A. Hakansson "Women's Experiences of Smoking During and After Pregnancy as Ascertained Two to Three Years After Birth." Mlidw-ifery Nlakdissi, IPaul, and Quentin Wodon "Consumption Dominance Curves: Testing for the Impact of Indirect 'Iax 18(3): Reforms on Poverty." Economics Letters 75(2): Bank Research Output

165 "Risk-Adjusted Measures of Wage Inequality and McEwan, P. J., and L. Benveniste "The Politics of Rural Safcty Nets." Economirs Bulletin 9(1): NMalonce, W illiam F "Mlissed Opportunities: Innovation and Education Policy 16(6): School Reform: Escuela Nueva in Colombia." Journal of Resource-Based Growth in Latin America." Economfna:Journal Nlerialdi, NI., G. Carroli, J. Villar, E. Abalos, A. M. Gulmezoglu, R. otlhe li.fi,n.-iinerican and Caribbean Economic Association 3(1): Kulier, and M. de Onis "Nutritional Interventions 111-5(. during Pregnancy for the Prevention or Treatment of Impaired Nlanski, C. F., J. Ncwman, and J. V: Pepper "Using FetalGrowth:AnOverviewofRandomizedControlled'Trials." Performance Standards to Evaluate Social Programs with JournalofNutrition 133(5, suppl. 2): Incomplcte Outcome Data: General Issues and Application to a Higher Education Block Grant Program." Evaluation Reviem Merrick, Thomas "Population and Poverty: New Views on an Old Controversy." InternationalFamilv PlanningPerspertives 26(4): (1): Mlaranvillc J. WV., R. K. Pandec, and S. Sirift "Comparison Nlessick, R. E "The Origins and I)evelopment of Courts." of Nitrogen tjsc Efficiencv of a Newly Developed Sorghum Judicature 85(4): Hybrid and 'Iwo Improved Cultivars in the Sahel of West NMete, Cem, Joan P Cioffi, and Nlaureen Y. Lichtveld "Are Africa." (omninunicationsin Soil,Science-anddPlantAnalysis 33(9-10): Public Health Services Available Where 'T'hey Are Most Needed? An Examination of Local Health Department N lartin, Will "Implications of Reform and WTO Accession for China's Agricultural Policies." Economics of Transition 9(3): Services." JournalofPublicHealthIlanagementandPractice 9(3): Milanovic, Branko "Do We ''end to Overestimate Poverty Martin. Will, and Elena lanchovichina "Implications of Gaps? The Impact of Equivalency Scales on the Calculation (lhina's Accession to the NVorld Trade Organisation for China of the Poverty Gap." Applied Economics Letters 9(2): and the WTO." llorld Economvy 24(9): "'I'rue World Income Distribution, 1988 and 1993: Martinez leria, Maria Soledad "A Regime-Switching Approach to the Study of Speculative Attacks: A Focus on Journa/112(476): ENIS Criscs." Empirical Economics 27(2): First Calculation Based on Household Surveys Alone." Economic "The Two Faces of Globalization: Against Global- Niascarell, Caroline "The Odessa Initiative: A Mlodel for Insti- ization as We Know It." lorlddevelopment 31(4): tutional Reform in Eastern Europe." FinanmeandDevelopment Milanovic, Branko, and Shlomo Yitzhaki "Decomposing 38(3): World Income Distribution: Does the World Have a Middle Nlaskus, Keith "Regulatory Standards in the WTO: Class?" Review of Income and Wealth 48(2): Comparing Intellectual Property Rights with Competition Nlillot, Benoit, and Julia Lane "ifhe Efficient Ulse of Time Policy, Environmental Protection, and Core Labor Standards." in Education." Education Economics 10(2): World Trade Review 1(2): Nlingat, Alain, and Carolyn Winter "Education for All by Mathernova. Katarina "A Reformer's Lessons Learned: The 2015." Finance and Development39(1): Case of the Slovak Republic." 1he lawa in Transition, fall: Nlattoo, Aaditya. 2)003. "China's Accession to the WTO: 'l'he Services Dimension." Journal of International Economic Law, Mishra, Deepak, Ashoka Mody, and Antu Panini Nlurshid "Pri- vate Capital Flows and Growth." FinanceandDevelopment38(2):2-5. Mitra, Arup, Aristomene Varoudakis, and Nlarie-Ange Viganzones- 6(27): Varoudakis "Productivity and Technical Efficiency Mlattoo. Aaditya, R. Pcrez-Esteve, and L. Schuknecht in Indian States' Manufacturing: The Role of Infrastructure." "Electronic Commerce, 'Irade, and Tariff Revenue: A Economic Development and Cultural C'hange50(2): Quantirative Assessment." llorldeconomn 24(7): Nlitra, Ilradeep, and NMarcelo Selowsky "Lessons from a MlcDaniel. Christine A.. and Bcata K. Smarzynska Decade of Transition in Eastern Europe and the Formcr Soviet "Engineers on the Production Floor? State-Level Evidence tunion." Finance anddevelopment 39(2): That Platenting and Production Locate Together." TIIorldEcon- Nlitric, S "Urban Transport Strategy for Colombo, Sri Lanka." omy 24(6): Transportation Research Record 1799: Bank Research Output 161

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167 Peabody. J. W., David A. Robalino, and J. H. Kim "An Eval- Farmer Field School Extension Approach." JournalofInternauation of I 'niversal Health Insurance in the Elderly: Burden tional.4gricnilttural and Extension Education 8(1): of Disease, lltilization, and Costs in the Reptiblic of Korea." Jottrnal/f laging and Health 14(2): Rama, M,lartin "The Consequences of Doubling the Peng, C. Y.. X. I). Wu, G. Liu, '1. Johnson, J. Shah, and S. Relations Review 54(4): NMinimum NVage: The Case of Indonesia." IndustrialandLabor Guttikunda "t'rban Air Quality and Health in China." "Mondialisation, inegalites et politiques de Urban Studies 39(12): 'emploi." Revued'Economie du Dkeloppement, nos. 1-2: PereiradaSilva, LuizA "'I'he International Financial Insti- tutions and the Political Lessons from the Asian Crises of " International Social Science Journal 53(170): Journal of India 15(1): Ramana, G. N. V., J. G. Sastry, and D. Peters "Health 'Iransition in India: Issues and Challenges." National eledical Rao, 'Vijayendra "Celebrations as Social Investments: IPerkins. NI. D., and A. L. Kritski "Diagnostic 'Festing in the Festival Expenditures, Unit Price Variation, and Social Status Control of Tuberculosis." Bulletin of the M1orld Health Organiza- in Rural India." Journal of Development Studies 38(1): tion 80(6): Ravallion, Martin "Gro-wth, Inequality, and Poverty: Look- Pitt, Mlark NI., and Shahidur R. Khandker "Credit ing beyond Averages." llorlddevelopment 29(11): Programmcs for the IPoor and Seasonality in Rural Bangladesh." "On Assessing the Efficiency of the Welfare State: Journal oj Development,Studies 39(2): A Comment." Kvklos 54(1): Pitt, NMark NI., Shahidur R. Khandker, 0. H. Chowdhury, and "Are the Poor Protected from Budget Cuts? Evidence D. L. Nlillimet "Credit Programs for the Poor and the for Argentina." Journal of Applied Economics 5(1): Health Status of Children in Rural Bangladesh." litern/ational Economic Review 44(1): ment 39(2): PIlus(IltI1cC, Hi "Is the Daunting Challenge of Irrigation "An Automatic Safety Net?" Finance and Develop "On the UTrbanization of Poverty." Journal of Achievable?" Irrigation and Drainage 51(3): Development Economics 68(2): Pradhan, Nienno, and Nicholas Prescott "Social Risk "The Debate on Globalization, Poverty, and Inequal- Nlanagement Options for Medical Care in Indonesia." Health ity: Why Measurement NMatters." International Affairs 79(4): Economics 11(5): Pradhan, NIenno, and Mtartin Ravallion "Who Wants Safer Streets? Explaining Concern for Public Safety in Brazil." Journal of Economic Psvcholog' 24(1): "Inequality Convergence." EconomirsLzears80: "NleasuringAggregate Welfare in Developing Coun- tries: How Well Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?" Pradhan, Nlenno, David F. Sahn. and Stephen D. Younger Review of Economics and Statistics 85(3): "I)ecomposing World Health Inequality." Journal of Health. 2(003. "A NModel-Based Assessment of India's Progress in Economits 22(2): Reducing Poverty." Economicand Political W7eekly 38: Preker, A. S "Global Development Challenges and Health Ravallion, Nlartin, and Shaohua Chen "NMeasuring Pro-Poor Care Reform." IIorld Hospitals and Health Ser2vies 37(3). Growth." Economics Letters 78(1): P'reker, A. S., G. Carrin, 1). Dror, NI. Jakab, NV. Hsiao, and D. Arthin-Tenkorang. 2(002. "Effectiveness of Community Health Ravallion, Mlartin, and Gaurav Dart "Why Has Economic Growth Been Mlore Pro-Poor in Some States of India Than Financing in Nlecting the Cost of Illness." Bulletin of the WI orld Others?" Journal of Development Economies 68(2): Health Oi.)ganization 80(2): 143-5(0. Quisumbing. Agnes R., L. Haddad, and C. Pena "Are W'onien ()verrepresented among the Poor? An Analysis of Ravallion, Nlartin, and Nlichael Lokshin "Identifying Welfare EffectsfromSubjectiveQuestions." Economiea68(271): Poverty in 1() Developing Countries." Journal of Development Economic Review 46(8): "Self-Rated Economic Welfare in Russia." European Economins 66(1): Recanatini, Franeesca, Scott Wallsten, and Lixin Colin Xu Quizon, Jaime, Gershon Feder. and Rinku MIUrgai "Fiscal Sustainability of Agricultural Extension: 'I he C'ase of the Economic Quarterly 2(1). "Surveying Surveys and Questioning Questions." China Bank Research Output 163

168 Reinikka, Ritva, and Jakob Svensson "Coping with Poor Savioli, L., S. Stansfield, D. A. P. Bundy, A. Nlitchell, R. Bhatia, Public Capital." Journalof DevelopmentEconomics 69(1): l). Engels, A. Nlontresor, Nl. Neira. and A. Nl. Shein Rischard, J. F. 20(01. "High Noon: We Need New Approaches to Global Problem-Solving. Fast." Journal of International "Schistosomiasis and Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections: Forging Control Efforts." Transactions of the Roval Society oj' Economic Lan 4(3): Tropic-ali ledicine andhygiene 96(6): "Global Issues Networks: Desperate'rimes Deserve Schady, Norbert R "Picking the Poor: Indicators for Innovative Measures." :'. ::. CQuarterly 26(1): Geographic Targetingin Peru." Review ofincomeeandlltalth48(3): Robalino, David A., Albertus Voetberg, and Oscar Picazo "The Nlacroeconomic Impacts of AIDS in Kenya: Estimating Optimal Reduction Targets for the HIV/AIDS Incidence Rate." "Convexity and Sheepskin Effects in the Human Capital Earnings Function: Recent Evidence for Filipino NIen." Journal of Policy Modeling 24(2): O.xfordl Bulletin of Aconomics and Statistics 65.(2): Robinson, Sherman, Zhi Wang, and Will Martin "Captur- Schiff, NMaurice "Chile's Trade and Regional Integration ing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization." Economic Policy: An Assessment." llorld Economy 2.5(7): Systems Research 14(1): Rola. Agnes, S. Jamias, and Jaime Quizon "Do Farmer.20(03. "F'TA, Customs Uinion, or UInilateral 'Irade Polic? Final Status Options for 'the West Bank and Gaza."' Journal Field School Graduates Retain and Share What They Learn? of Econon,ic Integration 18(1): An Investigation in Iloilo, Philippines." Journalof International "Love 'T'hy Neighbor: Trade, Nligration, and Social AgriculturalandExtension Education 9(1): Capital." European Journalof Political Economty.1 18(1): Routledge, B. R., and J. von Amsberg "Social Capital and Growth." Journal ofalonetarv Economics 50(l): Schiff, NMaurice, and Won Chang "MIarket Prescncc, Contestability, and the T'erms-of-'T'rade Effects of Regional Rutherford, Thomas F., and David G. Tarr "'Irade Liberal- Integration." Journal of International Econo'mics 60)(1): ization, Product Variety, and Growth in a Small Open Economy: A Quantitative Assessment." Journal of International Schiff, Nlaurice, and Yanling Wang "NAI'IA, Technology Economics 56(2): Salameh, NI. G "AThird Oil Crisis?" Surviva/43(3): (121): Salman, Salman NI. A "Legal Regime for [Ise and Protec- tion of International Watercourses in the Southern African Region: Evolution and Context." Vatural Resources Joul-nal 41(4): (3): Diffusion, and Productivity in Nlexico." Cuadernos dc Etonom,a Schiff, Nlaurice, and L. Alan Winters. 2(002. "Regionalism and D)evelopment: The Implications of World Bank Research for ACP and Latin American Countries." Journal of llorld Trade "Sharing Rivers for Peace, Development, and Schmukler, Sergio L., and Luis Serven "Pricing Currenccy Security: Analysis of the Recommendations of the World Commission on Dams." Water International26(2): ics 69(2): Risk under Currency Boards." Journal of DevelopmentEconom "The Abuja Ministerial Declaration on Water: A Serebrisky, Tomas, and Lucas Grosman. 20(03. "El abuso explotativo Milestone or Just Another Statement?" Wlater International y la defensa de la competencia en Argentina." Boletin 27(3): LatinoamericanodeGompetencia(European Commission) 16: "Inter-States Water Disputes in India: An Analysis Serven, Luis "Real-Exchange-Rate t ncertainty and Private of the Settlement Process." WVater Policv 4(3): Sari, N., and J. C. Langenbrunner "Consumer Out-of Pocket Spcnding for Pharmaceuticals in Kazakhstan: Implica- Shaw, R. P "TWorld Health Report 2000 'Financial Fairness Inditions for Sectoral Reform." Health PolicT and Planning 16(4): Investment in LDCs." Revie- ofeconomitsandstatistis 85(1): cator': Useful Compass or Crystal Ball?" International Journal of Health Services 32(1): Sarno, L., and M.. 1iaylor "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Mlarket: Is It Effective and, If So, How Shi, Anqing "'I'he Impact of Population Pressure on Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions, : Evidence from l'ooled Does It Work?" Journal of Economic Literature 39(3): Cross-Country Data." Ecological Economits 44(1): Bank Research Output

169 ShirleN. Mlars MI. 2)002. "E.xpericncc wsith Privatisation: A New Institutional Economilics Pcrspcctive." Journal of Afri-an c11 onoics I I (1) 1 ) (3): Agricultre, : 'I'ime Scries 'lests and an Error Correction M\odel." American.Journal of Agricultiru/l Economic; Shnic\, iary NI.., and Lixin Colin NL "Empirical Effccts of Thomas, Vinod, Yan WNang, and Xibo Fan "Measuring PIerfoirmance ( ontracts: E\ idenlcc froml (China." Jourwal of l.ar, Education Inecluality: Gini (Cocfficients of Education for 140 1shornoln/ien an/d,0ganizalion 17(1): Siddi(li, S.. S. I lamid, G. Rafi(qie. S. A. Chaudhry, N. Ali. S. Administration 17(1). Shahad), and R. Saucrborn. 20(02. "I'rescription Practices of lublic and Pri\atc Hcalth ( are Providers in Attock District of I aki stan." Il nt/cxwatio/sal.lorn/lofh ia/th I Pla/ning and.llanage- n/ct 17(1): 23-4). 41(1): (Countries ( (00)." Journal of jeduncationa/l Planni//g and Tiwvari, D., and Aridl )inar "Balancing Futire Food Deniand and Watcr Supply: 'I'he Role of Economic Incentives in Irrigated Agriculture." Quia; ter/r Journal ojtl,iternaftio//a/ laginul/tnu' Scoarz\nsall, Bcata K. 200)1. "I)oes Relative Location Nlatter for Towbnsend, Robert E., and (Colin (. 'I'hirtle "Is Livestock Bilateral 'tradc Flowsm An E'xtcnsion of the Gravity Niodel." Research Unproductive? Separating Health Maintenance from Joloiniial o/l';clonmou Inte,iationi 16(3): Improvement Research.".Algricultuiral Econom,ics 25(2-3): Stapelichurst. Irederick C.. and Riccardo Pelizzo. 2()()2. "A Bigger ROlC f6r Legislatorcs." I'inaucc and Orrs/opmnt 39(4): Trouiller, P., P Olliaro. E. 'Iorrcele, J. Orbinski, R. Laing, and N. Stern, Nicholas. 20)011. "In cstimient an(d Poerty: 'I'he Role of the International Financial Institutions-Thc Jac(qites de Larosiere l.cctore." iol'oumnics of r7n.lsition 9(2): 259-8(0. 359(9324): Ford "Drig Development for Neglccted Diseases: A Deficient Niarket and a Public Health Policy Failure." I.ancet.20)()2. "'lioards a Dyniamic 1'ublic Economics." Journalof Ilmali-Deininger, Dina L., and Klaus l)eininger "'obwards Putblic Econonmics 86(3): Greater 1 ood Security for India's Poor: Balancing Governmcnt 200((3. "'Plulic Policy for Grrow th and Poverty Reduction." Intervention and Private (Compctition.".Igric/lt/ra/lEconoinirs (.CS.fr Aiccnlo1niO/.SVtunies 49(11): (2-3): Strcckl. Charlotte. 20)0)1. "'Itne Gclobal Environment Facility: A thplckar. NI. V, S. Rangan, NI. G. NVeiss, J. Ogden, NI. W. l3orgdorff. Role Mlodcl for International (Gobcrnanice?" (GohalErntuironmental and P. Hudelson. 2(0)01. "Attention to Gender Issues in 'luber- I'olitiei 1(2): cnlosis Control." International Journal of 7'uet-lmulosis andl lunr SL1wNandono,A... A. Gani, S. Purvani. E. BI3as, and R. Brugha. 2)()1. Disease 5(3): "Lost Rccoxcrv B3eds in Public Hospitals in Indonesia." Health Iipretv, Kishor "'I'ransboundarv Energy Security: Emerging Po/n()cn/d /a/r/ni/c' 16)(): 1(-18. Legal and Institutional Framework for Electricity 'rrading in Svcndscn. Ni.. Gonzalez, ; and S. Johnson "Privatizing Southern Africa." Journal ofenergy and.vatnral Resources L.ar Canal Irrigation." r1r7iation tlddrainqage 52(2): (4): Svensson, J.akob. 20)113. 'Who Nllust Pay Bribcs and How Nluch? Utzinger, J., Y. 'otozan, F Doumani, and B. H. Singer. 20(02. "'The Evidence from a C ross-section of Firms." Quar-ter/-/.Journalof Economic Payoffs of Integrated Nlalaria Control in the I'oi/i0o/ics 118(1): 2( Zambian Copperbelt bet-ween 193(0 and 195(1." 7Iropical --. 2())03. 'Whvy Conditional Aid I)ocs Not 'Work and What Can lledficine and International Health 7(8): e I )one About It." Jo1/i/i/al ofd tcvlopnent Aconomits 7(1(2 ): van de Walle, Dominique. 2(00)2. "Choosing Rural Road Investments ). to Hclp Reduce Poverty." WolRId Divelopment 3(0(4): lakougallg. I..,. Ncremikwn, S. Natnddji E. V Yenshu, B. Aripko, van Domecen, Julic "Social Funds: Ev-idenlcc on 'l'argeting, S. 1B. I.amilcin, B. L. Eka, P Enyong, J. Nleli, 0. Kale, and Impacts, and Sustainabilitv.".Jonrnal oflntcrnational Develop- 1. H. Remimiic. 2)12. "Rapid Assessmcnt Nlethod for Prevalence ient 14(5): and Intensity of LEoa I oa I nfection." Bulletin of the ll'orld Health 0(id,cni/atioci 81)(11): 8X 'I'hirtle. ('olin G.. D)avid E. Schirmmelpfennig, and Robert E. 'IO\\anscnd. 20)02. "IndUced Innovation in l'nited States 8(3): v'an Doorslaer. Eddy, and Adam Wagstaff. 20)1. "W\h at Mlakes the- Personal Income 'Iax Progressive? A (Comparative Analysis of I"ifteenOECD(Countries."Internltional 7-ix andpub/lic Final/c- Bank Reseorth Output 165

170 Vaughan, L., NI. J. Nlenou, J. Agada, C. Kenny, L. A. Lievrouw, and Y. H. Zhou "Information Society Metrics in the Global 20(3): E.nvironmcnt. "AI.SX15'T2072:.Proceedings ofthe 65thASlSTAnnual Settlement Rate Reforms." Journal of Regulatory Economirs Wane, Waly "The Optimal Incomc Tax When Povertv Is a.lleeting39: Public 'Bad."' Journal of Public Economics 82(2): Verheijen, 'lony "Lcs criteres administratifs d'adhesion a "Income Taxation and 'I'ax lvasion in a Finiitc l'utnion europ6enne: Sont-ilsvouesau placard?" Revued'Etudes Economy." lnnalr of EconomincsandFinance 3(2): ('onparativzes Est-Ouest 33(3): Wang, Hua "Pollution Rcgulation and Abatement Efforts: Villar, J., NI. Nierialdi, A. NI. Gulmezoglu, E. Abalos, G. Carroli, R. Evidence from China." Ecological Economics 41(1): Kulier, and NI. de Onis "Characteristics of Randomized Controlled 'frials Included in Systematic Reviews of Nutritional Interventions Reporting Nlaternal NMorbidity, NMortality, Preterm Economics 34(6): Dcliverv, Intrauterine Growth Restriction, and Small for Gestational Age and Birth Weight Outcomes." Journal of N'ut'ition 133(5, suppl. 2): Wang, Hua, and Somik V. Lail "Valuing Water for Chinesc Industries: A Nfarginal Productivity Analysis." Applied Wang, Hua, Nlandu NMamingi, Benoit Laplante, and Susmita Dasgupta "Incomplete Enforcement of Pollution Regulation: Bargaining Plower of Chinese Factories." "Nutritional Interventions during Pregnancy for Environmental and Resource Economics 24(3): the Prevention or 'Treatment of NMaternal Morbidity and Preterm Wang. Shuilin "China's Invcstment Climate." Journal of Deliverv: An Overview of Randomized Controlled Trials." Comparative Economic and Social Systems 3: Journalof Nutrition 133(5, suppl. 2): Vincent, J. R.. J. Aden, G. Dore, NI. Adriani, V. Rambe. and T. Walton "Public Environmental Expenditures in Indonesia." /:..... of Indonesian Economic Studies 38(1): SSystems 3. Vodopivec, Nlilan "Worker Reallocation during Estonia's 'Ilransitison to Nlarket." International Journal of AIanpow.er 23(1): Wang, Shuilin, David Dollar, and Lixin Colin Xu "Institu- tional Capacity Building in China's Investment Climate Improvement." Journal of Comparative Economic and Social WAang, Yan, and Yudong I). Yao. 2(003. "Sources of China's Economic Growth, : Incorporating Human Capital Accumula tion." China Economic Review 14(1): Wagstaff, Adam "Economics, Health, and Development: Some Ethical Dilemmas Facing the World Bank and the Inter- Waters, H., F Saadah, and NMenno Pradhan. 2(0(03. "'Fhe Impact of the East Asian Economic Crisis on Health and Health national Community." Journal of.i/edical Ethics 27(4): Care in Indonesia." Health Polio and Planning 18(2): "Inequality Aversion, Health Inequalities, and Wheeler, David "Beyond Pollution lhavens." Global Health Achievement." Journalof Health Economics 21(4): Environmental Politics 2(2): "Pobreza y desigualdades en el sector de la salud." "Racing to the Bottom? Foreign Investment and Air Revista Panainericana de Salud Pziblica 11(5-6): 31 ' "Reflections on and Alternatives to WHO's Fairness Development 10(3): of Financial Contribution Index." Health Economics 11(2): Pollution in Developing Countries." Journal of'environminteand White, Howard, and Edoardo Nlasset "'The Importancc of 1( Household Size and Composition in Constructing Poverty \Vagstaff, Adam, Eddy van Doorslaer, and Naoko Watanabe Profiles: An Illustration from Vietnam." Developmentand'C'. "On Decomposing the Causes of Health Sector Inequalities with 34(1): an Application to Nlalnutrition Inequalities in Vietnam." Journal of Econometrius 112(1): W7'ahba, NI. A. S., NI. El-Ganainy, NI. S. Abdel-Dayem, H. Kandil, and A. Gobran "Evaluation of DRAINMOD-S for Wilson, John S "The Role of'i'rade Policies in Economic Development." InternationalDevelopment.Journal (NIay). Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki "Food Safety and Tlrade: Winners and Losers in a Nonharmonized World." Simulating W7fater T[able Nlanagement under Semi-Arid Journalof EconomicIntegration 18(2): Conditions." lrrigationanddrainage51(3): Wodon,Quentin.20(01. "Income MobilityandRiskdduringtheBusi- Wallsten. Scott J. 2(1()1. "Telecommunications Investment and ness Cycle: Comparing Adjustments in Labour Nlarkets in T-kvo TIraffic in I)cveloping Countries: The Effects of International Latin American Countries." Ecronomis of T7hansition 9(2): Bank Research Output

171 "Pauvrete et coupures d'electricite: Evaluation des Yilmaz, Serdar, Mustafa Dine, and Kingley E. Haynes "The engagements solidarite d'electricite de France." Energy Impact of Telecommunications lnfrastructure Investment on Studies Review 11(2): Sectoral Growth." Australasian Journal of Regional Studies 7(3): Wodon, Quentin, and Shlomo Yitzhaki "Evaluating the Impact of Government Programs on Social Welfare: The Role Yilmaz, Serdar, Kingley E. Haynes, and Mustafa Dinc of Targeting and the Allocation Rules among Program Benefi- ciaries." Public Finance Review 30(2): "The Effect of Using Grouped Data on the 42(2): Estimation of the Gini Income Elasticity." Economics Letters "Geographic and Network Neighbors: Spillover Effects of Telecommunications Infrastructure." Journal of RegionalScience Young, B. M., N. Prescott, and E. Y. Bae "The Impact of 78(2): Economic Crisis on Health Care Consumption in Korea." "Inequality and the Accounting Period." Econom- Health Polity and Planning 16(4): ics Bulletin 4(36): 1-8. Yusuf, Shahid "Remodelling East Asian Development." Wodon, Quentin, Benedicte de la Briere, Corinne Siaens, and ASEAN Economic Bulletin 19(1): Shlomo Yitzhaki "The Impact of Public Transfers on Yusuf, Shahid, and Weiping Wu "Pathways to a World City: Inequality and Social Welfare: Comparing Mexico's Shanghai Rising in an Era of Globalization." Urban Studies PROGRESA to Other Government Programs." Research on 39(7): Economic Inequality 10: Wodon, Quentin, R. Castro-Fernandez, Gladys L6pez-Acevedo, Corinne Siaens, C. Sobrado, and J.-P. Tre "Poverty in Economics 28(1): Latin America: Trends ( ) and Determinants." Cuader- nos de Economia 114: Zekri, Slim, and Ariel Dinar "Welfare Consequences of Water Supply Alternatives in Rural Tunisia." Agricultural Zeufack, Albert "Export Performance in Africa and Asia's Manufacturing: Evidence from Firm-Level Data." Journal of Woolcock, Michael "Culture and Development Economics: African Economies 10(3): Theory, Evidence, Implications." Romanian Journal of Political Science 2: World Bank, Human Development Network "World Bank Strategy in the Education Sector: Process, Product, and Review 12(1): Progress." International Journal of Educational Development 22(5): Zhang, Tao, and Heng-Fu Zou "The Growth Impact of Intersectoral and Intergovernmental Allocation of Public Expen- diture: With Applications to China and India." China Economic E. World Bank Discussion Papers, Technical Papers, Working Papers,and Other Bank Series Publications Xiao, S. H., MI. Tanner, E. K. N'Goran, J. Utzinger, J. Chollet, R. Bergquist, M. G. Chen, and J. Zheng "Recent Investigations of Artemether: A Novel Agent for the Prevention of Schistosomiasis Japonica, Mansoni, and Haematobia." Acta Tropica 82(2): Xiao, S. H., Y. Q. Yang, Q. Q. You, J. IJtzinger, H. F Guo, P. Y. Jiao, Alwang, Jeffrey, Bradford E Mills, and Nelson Taruvinga Wlhy Has Poverty Increased in Zimbabwe? Poverty Dynamics in Africa Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Battaile, William Annual Review of Development J. Y. Nlei, J. Guo, R. Bergquist, and M. Tanner "Poten- Effectiveness: Making Choices. Operations Evaluation Studies tial Long-Term Toxicity of Repeated Orally Administered Doses of Artemether in Rats." American Journal of Tropical zl edicine and Hygiene 66(1): Yilmaz, Serdar, and Mustafa Dinc "Telecommunications and Regional Development: Evidence from the United States." Economic Development Quarterly 16(3): Yilmaz, Serdar, and S. Lall "Regional Economic Convergence: Do Policy Instruments Make a Difference?" Annals of Regional Science 35(l): Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Bekhechi, Mohammed A., and Jean-Roger Mercier he Legal and Regulatory Frameworkfor Environmental ImpactAssess- ments: A Study of Selected Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Law, Justice, and Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bellier, Michel, and Yue Maggie Zhou Private Participation in Infrastructure in China: Issues and Recommendations for the Bank Research Oufpul 167

172 Road, IVater, and Power Sectors. World Bank Working Paper 2. Washington, D.C. Borish, Michael S., Khaled Sherif, George R. G. Clarke, and Paul Siegelbaum Structural Adjustment in the Transition: Case Studiesfrom Albania, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyz Republic, and Aloldova. De Soto, Hermine, Peter Gordon, Ilir Gedeshi, and Samira Sinoimeri Povert in Albania: A Qualitative Assessment. World Bank 'echnical Papcr 520. WNashington, D.C. Di Gropello, Emanuela Monitoring Eduacational Perfornance inthecaribbean. World Bank Working Paper 6. Washington, D).C. World Bank Discussion Paper 429. Washington, D.C. Dymond, Andrew, Juan Navas-Sabater. and Niina Juntunen Bradlow, Daniel D., Alessandro Palmieri, and Salman M. A. Salman. Telecommunications and Information Servicesfor the Poor: Towzard Regulatory Frameworks for Dam Safety: A Comparative. for UniversalAccess. World Bank Discussion Paper432. Study. Law, Justice, and Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Broadman, Harry G Unleashing Russia's Business Potential: Lessons Learned from the Region for Building Market Institutions. World Bank Discussion Paper 434. Washington, D.C. Carvalho, Soniya Social Funds: Assessing Effectiveness. Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Washington, D.C. Estache, Antonio, Vivien Foster, and Quentin Wodon crount- ingfor Poverty in Infrastructure Refonn: Learning from Latin A mer- ica's Experience. World Bank Institute Development Studics Series. Washington, D.C. Funck, Bernard, ed ExpenditurePoliciestowzrardEEl Accession. World Bank Technical Paper 533. Washington. D.C. Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. GacitCla-Mari6, Estanislao, and Quentin Wodon, eds Annual Review, of Development Effectiveness: AfeasurementandAleaning:- ombiningquantitativ,eanldquialitative Achieving Development Outcomes-The Millennium Challenge. Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Coelli, Tim, Antonio Estache, Sergio Perelman, and Lourdes Trujillo A Primer on Efficiency for Utilities and Transport Regulators. World Bank Institute Development Studies Series. Washington, D.C. Correia, Maria, and Wendy Cunningham Caribbean Youth Development: Issues and Poliry Directions. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Cruz, Wilfrido, Koichiro Fukui, and Jeremy Warford, eds Protecting the Clobal Environment: Initiatives by Japanese Business. World Bank Institute Learning Resources Series. Washington, D.C. Csaki, Csaba Food and Agricultural Polity in Russia: Progress to Date and the Road Forward. World Bank Technical Paper Methods for the Analysis of Poverty and Social Exclusion in latin America. World Bank Technical Paper 518. Washington. D).C. Gautam, Madhur Debt Relieffor the Poorest: An OED Reuiew of the HIPC Initiative. Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Depart- ment. (Also published in French.) Glaessner, Thomas C., Stijn Claessens, and Danicla Klingcbicl Electronic Finance: A New7 Approach to Financial Sector Development? World Bank Discussion Paper 431. Washington. D.C. Gonzalez, Fernando J., and Salman NI. A. Salman. eds Insti- tutional Reform for Irrigation and Drainage: Proceedings of a I l orld Bank IVorkshop. World Bank 'l'echnical Paper 524. WNashington, D.C. Govindaraj, Ramesh, and Gnanaraj Chellaraj. 20(12. ithe Indlian 523. Washington, D.C. PharmaceuticalSector: Issues and Options forhealth SectorRefonn. Deaton, Angus S.. and Salman Zaidi Guidelines for Con- World Bank Discussion Paper 437. WNashington, D.C. structingconsumptiona~gregatesforwelfareanalysis. Living Stan- Grasso, Patrick G., Sulaiman Wasty, and Rachcl Weaving dards NMeasurement Study 135. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. de Ferranti, David, Guillermo E. Perry, Indermit S. Gill, Jose Luis Guasch, Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, Norbert Schady, and William E Maloney Closing the Cap in Education and Technology. WorldBank Operations Evaluation Department: The First,30 Y)tias. Operations Evaluation Studies Scries. WVashington, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Gray, John A Forest Concession Policies and Recenue Sywtems: Latin American and Caribbean Studies Series. Washington, Country Experience and Policy (y. for Sustainable 'Iopibal D.C.: World Bank. Dercon, Stefan The Impact of Economic Reforms on Rural Households in Ethiopia:A Study from Poverty Dynam- Southeastern Europe since the Kosovo Coonflict. WNorld Bank 'IFechics in Africa Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Forestry. World Bank 'Fechnical Paper 522. Washington, D.C. Gressani, Daniela, and Saumya Mitra Structunsl Reforms in nical Paper 526. Washington, D.C. 168 Bank Reseorch Output

173 (;Gvin, Cathcrine IDAIs Partnershipforl Povert Reduction: An Independent Eoaluation of Fiscal Years Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Opcrations Evaluation Department. Harding, April L., and Alexander S. Preker, eds Private Part, ipation in Health Servires. Health, Nutrition, and Popula- tion Series. WNashington, D.C.: WN"orld Bank. I larris, (live Private P'articipation in Infrastructure in Devel- oping (Countries: Thends, Impacts, and Policy Lessons. World Bank Working Plapcr 5. Washington, D.C. Malik, Waleed Haider Judiciary-Led Reforms in Singapore: Framework, Strategies, andlessons. World Bank'rechnical Paper 535. Washington, D.C. Malik, Waleed Haider, and Carlos Esteban Larios Ochaita, eds Fuarthering Judicial Education: Proceedings of the Conference of Judicial Schools in Latin America. World Bank Technical Paper 528. Washington, D.C. NMcLaren, John, ed Institutional Elements of Tax Design and Reform. World Bank Technical Paper 539. Washington, D.C. Hassan, Farced NI. A Lesotho: Development in a Cei.. i' Michalopoulos, Constantine, and Vasilcios Panousopoulos En, vionnent-.a Joint Iorld Bank-African Development Bank Services Trade in the Balkans. World Bank Technical Paper 530. E.a/uafi/on. Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washing- ton, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. JavasuLriva, Ruwsan, and Quentin Wodon Efficiency in Reaching the.mlillennium Development Goals. World Bank WVorking Papcr 9. Washington, D.C. Klingehiel, IDanicla, and Luc Laeven IanagingtheRealand Washington, D.C. Nluller-Jentsch, Daniel Transportation Policies for the Euro-MtIediterranean Free-Trade Area: An Agendafor Multimodal Transport Reform in the Southern Mediterranean. WVorld Bank Technical Paper 527. Washington, D.C. Nelson. Ridley S. NM The NextAscent:AnEvaluation oftheaga Fisail) - of Banking(rises. World Bank Discussion Paper428. Khan Rural Support Program, Pakistan. Operations Evaluation Washington, D.C. Kohlinskv, NIlarjorie A., ed Reduring laternal llortality: Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. L.earningfromn Bolivia,.. I', vt, Honduras, Indonesia,Jamaica, Novotny, Thomas, Dominic Haazen, and Olusoji Adeyi and /linbalrce. Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Wash- ington, D.C.: WVorld Bank. Kojima. Nllasami Brearthing Clean: Considering the Switch to X\ataunl Gas Buses. WVorld Bank ''echnical Paper 516. Washing- ton, D).C. Lampietti, Julian A., and Anke S. Meyer Copinguith the Cold: Heating Stra.t yi esfor East Europe and CentralAsia s Urban Poor W\Torld BankT1echnical Plaper 529. Washington, D.C. Laurin, Alain, and Giovanni Nlajnoni, eds Bank Loan HIVIAIDS in Southeastern Europe: Case Studies from Bulgaria, Croatia, andromania. World Bank Working Paper 4. Washington, D.C. Oliveira, Joao do Carmo, and Jorge Martinez-Vazquez Czech Republic:.Intergovernmental FiscalRelations in the Transition. World Bank Technical Paper 517. Washington, D.C. Pagiola, Stefano, Roberto Martin-Hurtado, Priya Shyamsundar, Muthukumara Mani, and Patricia Silva Generating Public Sector Resources to Finance Sustainable Development:.. - anfd Provisioning Practices in Selected Developed and Revenue and Incentive Effects. World Bank Technical Paper 538. /AmlunfetgingtlEonomiev. WVorld Bank WoVrking Paper 1. Washington, D.C. La-wrence, Adrian, Stcphen Foster, and Brian Morris GroundwUater in Urban Dcvelopment: Accessing.MIanagement Needs and IFormnulaing Policy Strategies. World Bank Technical Paper 390. WVashington, D.C. Liebcnthal, Andres Promoting Environmental Sustainability in Dcvelopnient: An Evaluation of the lorld Banks Performance. Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: NVorld Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Lovci, Nlagda, and Bradford S. Gentry The Environmental Implications of Privatization: Lessons for Developing Countries. World Bank Discussion Paper 426. NVashington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Pathmanathan, Indra, and Jerker Liljestrand, eds Investing in Maternal Health in Malaysia andsri Lanka. Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Perry, Guillermo E., and Norbert Fiess Turmoil in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Spillovers, and Contagion. World Bank Working Paper 3. Washington, D.C. Peters, David H., Abdo S. Yazbeck, Rashmi Sharma, G. N. V Ramana, Lant H. Pritchett, and Adam Wagstaff Better Health Systems for India's Poor: Findings, Analysis, and Options. Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Bank Research Output 169

174 Pitman, George Trevor Keith Bridging Troubled Waters: Assessing the World Bank Water Resources Strategy. Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Preker, Alexander S., and April L. Harding, eds Innovations in Health Service Delivery: The Corporatization of Public Hospitals. Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Pswarayi-Riddihough, Idah Forestry in the Middle East and North Africa: An Implementation Review. World Bank Technical Paper 521. Washington, D.C. Pyne, Hnin Hnin, Mariam Claeson, and Maria Correia Gender Dimensions of Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Problems in Latin America and the Caribbean. World Bank Discussion Paper 433. Washington, D.C. Raven, John Trade and Transport Facilitation: A ToolkitforAudit, Analysis, and Remedial Action. World Bank Discussion Paper World Bank Bangladesh: Financial Accountability for Good Governance. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Cali, Colombia: Toward a City Development Strategy. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Chile's High Growth Economy: Povertv and Income Distribution World Bank Country Study. Washing- ton, D.C Economic Growth in the Republic of Yemen: Sources, Constraints, and Potentials. World Bank Country Study. Wash- ington, D.C Education and Training in Madagascar: Toward a PolicyAgendaforEconomic Growth andpoverty Reduction. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Growth Challenges andgovernment Policies in Armenia. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Higher Education in Brazil: Challenges and Options. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Washington, D.C Kyrgyz Republic: Fiscal Sustainability Study. World Revenga, Ana, Dena Ringold, and William Martin Tracy Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. Poverty and Ethnicity: A Cross-Country Study of Roma Poverty in Poverty and Nutrition in Bolivia. World Bank Central Europe. World Bank Technical Paper 531. Washington, D.C. Rokx, Claudia, Rae Galloway, and Lynne Brown Prospectsfor Improving Nutrition in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Health, Nutrition, and Population Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Salman, Salman M. A., and Kishor Uprety Conflict and Cooperation on South Asias International Rivers: A Legal Perspective. Law, Justice, and Development Series. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Schneider, Robert R., Adalberto Verissimo, Eugenio Arima, Carlos Souza Jr., and Paulo Barreto Sustainable Amazon: Limitationsand OpportunitiesforRuralDevelopment. World Bank Technical Paper 515. Washington, D.C. Silva-Jauregui, Carlos, Michelle Riboud, and Carolina Sanchez- Paramo Does Eurosclerosis Matter? Institutional Reform and Labor Market Performance in Central and Eastern Europe. World Bank Technical Paper 519. Washington, D.C. Starkey, Paul, Simon Ellis, John Hine, and Anna Ternell Improving Rural Mobility: Options for Developing Motorized and Nonmotorized Transport in Rural Areas. World Bank Technical Paper 525. Washington, D.C. Wellenius, Bjorn Closing the Gap in Access to Rural Communi- cation: Chile World Bank Discussion Paper 430. Washington, D.C. Country Study. Washington, D.C Regaining Fiscal Sustainability and Enhancing Effectiveness in Croatia: A Public Expenditure and Institutional Review. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C The Right to Tell: The Role of Mass Mledia in Economic Development. World Bank Institute Development Studies Series. Washington, D.C Slovak Republic: Living Standards, Employment, and Labor Market Study. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Tanzania at the Turn of the Century:BackgroundPapers and Statistics. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Agriculture in Nicaragua: Promoting Competitiveness and Stimulating Broad-Based Growth. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Bulgaria: Public Expenditure Issues and Directions for Reform. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C FinancialAccountability in Nepal:A Country Assessment. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Non-Bank Financial Institutions and Capital Markets in Turkey. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C Restoring Fiscal Discipline for Poverty Reduction in Peru: A Public Expenditure Review. World Bank Country Study. Washington, D.C. 170 Bank Researth Output

175 2003. Teltiar, Education in Colombia: Paving the 1ay to "'I'he Mini-Integrated Macroeconomic MIodel for Reformti. \Vorld Bank Country Sttidy. NWashington, D.C. Poverty Analysis: A Framework for Analyzing the 1 Inemplov- Zanini (j;ianni.'" K1' I. Russia TsIransition: An Unpreredented ment and Poverty Effects of Fiscal and Labor Mlarket Rcforms." Operations Evaluation Studies Series. Washington, Policy Research Working Paper NWorld Bank, \World Bank D.C.: World Bank, Operations Evaluation Department. Institute, Washington, D.C. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, and Joshua Aizenman Financial F. Policy Research Working Papers Sector Inefficiencies and the Debt Laffer Curve." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank. World Bank Abadzi, Hclen "Teaching Adults to Read Bctter and Faster: Institute, Washington, D.C. ResUlts from an Experiment in Burkina Faso." Policy Research Ainsworth, Martha, and Julia Dayton "'I'he Impact of thc Working Paper 3(057. World Bank, Operations Evaluation AIDS Epidemic on the Health of the Elderly in 'lanzania." D)epartment, Washington, I).C. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, D)evelop- Adams, Richard 11., Jr "IPrecautionary Saving fronm Different ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Sources of Income: Evidence from Rural Pakistan." Policy Ainsworth, Nlartha, and Deon Filmer "Poverty, AI)S, and Research Working Paper World Bank, Poverty Reduction Children's Schooling: A 'Fargeting Dilemma." Policy Rescarch and Economic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Working Paper World Bank, Development Research "Economnic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Group and Human Development Network. Washington. Iindings from a New Data Set." Policy Research Working D.C. Paper NWorld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Ajwad, Nlohamed Ihsan, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriva Mlanagcment Network, WVashington, D.C. "Ethnic and Gender Wage Disparities in Sri Lanka." Policy "International Migration, Remittances, and the Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Povcrty Reduction 13rain Drain: A Study of 24 1,abor-Exporting Countries." and Economic NManagement Network, Washington, [).C. Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Poverty Akiyama, Takamasa, John Baffes, Donald E Larson. and lpanos Reduiction and Economic NManagement Network, Washing- Varangis "Commodity Mlarket Reform in Africa: Somc ton, D.C. Recent Experience." Policy Research WVorking Paper Addison, D)ouglas Xl "Productivity Growth and Product World Bank, Development Research Group, Waslhington, Variety: Gains from Imitation and Education." Policy Research D.C. Workinig Paper NWorld Bank, Africa 'lechnical Families, Alam, Asad, and NMark Sundberg "A Decade of Fiscal Poycrty Reduction and Economic MNanagement 3, Washington, 'I'ransition." Policy Research NVorking Paper WVorld B3ank, D1).C Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Agcnor, Pierre-Richard "Bcnefits and Costs of International Economic NManagement Sector Unit, WVashington, D.C. Financial Integration: 'T'heory and Facts." IPolicy Research Alatas, Vivi, and Lisa Cameron "'Fhe Impact of Nlinimum Working Paper World Bank, \World Bank Institute, NVash- Wages on Employment in a Low-Incomc Country:.An Evaluington, ).C. ation UIsing the Difference-in-Differences Approach." Policy 'BBusiness Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor: Research Working Paper WN'orld B3ank, East Asia and 'Testing for Asy mmetric Effects." Policy Research Working Pacific Region, Environment and Social D)evelopment Sector P7apcr World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. I Init, Washington, D.C "D)oes Globalization Hurt the Poor?" Policy Research Alatas, Vivi, Lant Pritchett, and Anna WVetterberg "Voice Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, NVash- Lessons: Local Government Organizations, Social Organizations, ington, D).C. and the Quality of Local Governance." Policy Rescarch W\orking "MN1acroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Paper World Bank, East Asia and P'acific Region, En\i- Issues and Cross-Country Evidence." IPolicy Research Work- ronment and Social Development Sector [nit,\washington, 1).(C. ing Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washing- Albuquerque, Rui, Norman Loayza. and Luis Serven "World ton. D).(. Nlarket Integration through the Lens of Foreign Direct Bank Research Output 171

176 Investors." Policy Research Working laper World Bank, tion and Economic \lanagement Sector I nit, WVashington. Developmcnt Research Group, Washington, D.C. D).C. Alva, Soumya, Edmundo Niurrugarra, and Pierella Paci Azam, jean-paul, Nlagucye Dia, and '-chltche N'(;iessan "-'he Hidden Costs of Ethnic Conflict: Decomposing 'rends "Telecommunications Sector Refornss in Senegal." Policv in Educational Outcomes of Young Kosovars." Policy Research Research WVorking Paper WN'orld Bank, Dscvlopment WN'orking Paper WVorld Bank, Europe and Central Asia Research Group, Washington, D.C. Region, Human Development Sector Ufnit, Washington, Badiane, Ousiiane, DhancshN ar Ghura, Louis Goreux, and Paul D.C. Nlasson. 2(002. "COttOn Sector Strategics in \Nest and ( cntral Anderson, Jock R., and Gershon Feder "Rural Extension Africa." Policy Research Working E'apcr WVorld B3ank, Services." Policy Research WVorking Plaper WNorld Bank, Africa 'lechnical Families, RuraLl I)evelopment 2, Washing- Agriculture and Rural D)evelopment Department and ton, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bales. Sarah, and Martin Rama. 2()()1. "Are Pubhli Sector WVorkers Anderson, Kym, jikun Huang, and Elena lanchovichina Underpaid? Appropriate (.omparators in a Dcveloping "Long-Run Impacts of China's WT() Accession on Farm- Country." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank. Nonfarm Income Inequality and Rural Poverty." Policy Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Poverty RedLuction Barr, Abigail, and 'Iruman Ilackard. 2(1()2. "Revealed Prefcrenec and Economic Management Network, Washington, D).C. and Self-Insurance: Can We Learn ftroi the SeIf-limploved in Arias, Omar "Are Nlen Benefiting from the New Economy? (Chile?" Policy Research N'orkiig Paper World 13altk, MIale Economic Mlarginalization in Argentina, Brazil, and Costa Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Social lprotection I rnit. Rica." P'olicy Research WVorking Plaper 274(0. World Bank, Latin WNashington. 1).C. America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector tinit, Wash- Barth, James R., Gerard ( Caprio Jr., and Ross Levine. 2(0)1. "Bank ington, I).C. Regulation and Supervisioni: \What Works Best?" Policy Rescarch Artemiev, Igor, and Michael Haney "'I'he Privatization of the Working Paper World Bank. Development Research Russian Coal Industry: Policies and Processes in the Transfor- Group and Financial Sector Strategy and Policy I)epartment. mation of a Major Industry." Policy Research WVorking Paper \Washington, D.C WN"orld Bank, Priv ate Sector Advisory Services Department: Basu, Kaushik, and Ranjan Ray. 2(0(02. "'Ilhe (Collective.Model of and Europe and Clentral Asia Region, Infrastructure and Energy the Household and an tunexpectcd Irmplication for Child Labor: Department, Washington, D.C. Hypothesis and an Empirical Test." I'olics Research Working Auffret, Philippe. 2(101. "An Alternative UJnifying Mteasure of Paper World Bank, Development Economics, Office of \Welfare Gains from Risk-Sharing." Policy Research NVorking the Senior \'ice President and (hief Economist. Washington, IPaper NVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean D.(C. Region, Economic Policy Sector ( nit, \W"ashington, D.C. Baulch, Bob, T'ruongT'hi Kim Chuyen, Doominique Hauglhton, and 2()03. "Catastrophe Insurance Mlarket in the Caribbean Jonathan Haughton. 200)2. "Ethnic Mlinoritv Development in Region: Miarket Failires and Recommendations for Public Vietnam: A Sociocconomilic Perspective." Policy Research \Work- Sector Interventions." Policy Research Wkorking Paper ing Paper \World Bank. Dcv elopment Research Group, WVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Washington, D.C. Economic Policy Sector I nit, Washington, D.C. Beck, 'I'horsten. 2(0(03. "I'he Incentivc-Compatible Design of "High Consumption Volatility: '[he Impact of Nat- Deposit Insuirance and B3ank Failure Resolution: Concepts oral Disasters?" Plolicy Research WVorking Paper WN'orld and Country Studies." IPolicy Research \Working Paper 30)43. Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Economic WNorld Bank, D)evelopment Research Group. Washington, D.C. lpolicv Sector ttnit, WVashington, D.C. Beck. 'I'horsten, and Ash l)emirg0ig-kunt. 2(0(3. "'Bank Super\ i- 2(0(03. "'rrade Reform in Vietnam: Opportunities with sion and (Corporate Finance." Policy Research Working Paper Emerging C'hallenges." Policy Research \Vorking Paper 3(042. World Blank. 1)evelopment Rcsearch Group. Washingtol. 3(076. World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduc- D.C( 172 Bank Research Output

177 Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levine "Stock NMarkets, Banks, and Growth: Correlation or Causality?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Beck, Thorsten, and Ian Webb "Determinants of Life Bento, Antonio M., Nlaureen L. Cropper, Ahmed Nlushfiq Nlobarak, and Katja Vinha "The Impact of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand in the United States." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Insurance Consumption across Countries." Policy Research Berger, Allen N., Leora E Klapper, and Gregory E IJdell Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group. WVashington, I).C. Beck, Thorsten, Asti DemirgQ$-Kunt, and Ross Levine "Law and Finance: WVhy Does Legal Origin Nlatter?" IPolicv Research WVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. "The Ability of Banks to Lend to Informationally Opaque Small Businesses." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Binswanger. Hans P, and Swaminathan S. Aiyar "Scaling Up Community-Driven Development: Theoretical UTnderpinnings and Program Design Implications." Policy Research Working "Bank Concentration and Crises." Policy Research Paper World Bank, Africa Regional Office. Office of the Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Vice President, Washington, D.C. Group, NVashington, D.C. Blom, Andreas, Lauritz Holm-Nielsen. and Dorte Verner Beck, Thorsten, Ashl Demirgi,c-Kunt, and Vojislav NIaksimovic. "Education. Earnings, and Inequality in Brazil, : "Financial and Legal Constraints to Firm Growth: Does Implications for Education Policy." Policy Research Working Size NMatter?" Policy Rcsearch NVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank. Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Education Sector ljnit, Washington, D.C "Financing Patterns around the Vorld: 'I'he Role of Bosquet, Benoit "The Role of Natural Resources in Institutions." Policy Research Working Paper World Fundamental Tax Reform in the Russian Federation." Policy Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and "Bank Competition, Financing Obstacles, and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Access to Credit." Policy Research Working Paper World NManagement Sector U(nit, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D).C. Bosquet, Franck, and Alain Fayard "Road Infrastructure Con "Financial and Legal Institutions and Firm Size." cession Practice in Europe." Policy Research Working Paper Policy Research WVorking Paper World Bank, Develop World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, I).C. Bourguignon, Fran,ois, Francisco H. G. Ferreira, and Phillippe G. Beck, Thorsten, Nlattias Lundberg, and Giovanni M\lajnoni "Financial Intermediary D)evelopment and Growth Volatility: Do Intermediaries Dampen or Magnify Shocks?" Policy Research WVorking Paper World Bank, I)evelopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Beckerman, Paul "Dollarization and Semi-Dollarization in Ecuador." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Unit, Washington. D.C. Leite "Beyond Oaxaca-Blinder: Accounting for Differences in Household Income Distributions across Countries." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Research Advisory Staff, Washington, D.C "Ex-Ante Evaluation of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: The Case of Bolsa Escola." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve "Financial Intermediation and Beegle, Kathleen "Labor Effects of Adult NMortality in Tan- Growth: Chinese Style." Policy Research Working Paper zanian Households." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developmcnt Research Group, Washington, D.C. Beegle, Kathleen, Rajeev H. Dehejia, and Roberta Gatti "Child Labor, Income Shocks, and Access to Credit." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Brenton, Paul "Integrating the Least Developed Countries into the World Trading System: The Current Impact of EU Preferences under Everything but Arms." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic NManagement Network, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Outpul 173

178 Broadman, Harry G., and Francesca Recanatini "Is Russia Chakravorty, Sanjoy, Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall Restructuring? New Evidence on Job Creation and Destruc- "Nletropolitan Industrial Clusters: Patterns and Processes." tion." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Develop- Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Economic Mlanagement Sector tfnit, Washington, D.C. Chaudhury, Nazmul, and Jeffrey Hammer "Ghost Doctors: "Where Has All the Foreign Investment Gone in Absenteeism in Bangladeshi Health Facilities." Policy Research Russia?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Working Paper World Bank, Devclopment Research Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Group, Washington, D.C. Economic Nlanagement Sector U1nit, Washington, D.C. Chaudhury, Nazmul, Jeffrev Hammer, and Edmundo Murrugarra. Buckley, Robert, Gulmira Karaguishiyeva, Robert Van Order, and "'I'he Effects of a Fee-Waiver Program on Health Care Laura Vecvagare "Comparing Nlortgage Credit Risk LUtilization among the Poor: Evidence from Armenia." Policy Policies: An Options-Based Approach." Policy Research Work- Research Working Paper World Bank, Development ing Paper World Bank, Transport and t Irban Development Research Group; and Europe and Central Asia Region, Human Department, Washington, D.C. Development Sector l Init, Washington, D.C. Butzer, Rita, Yair Nlundlak, and Donald F. Larson Chen. Derek Hlung Chiat. 20(03. "Intertemporal Excess Burdcn, "Intersectoral Nligration in Southeast Asia: Evidence from Bequest Mlotives, and the Budget Deficit." Policy Research Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, Wash- Working Paper World Bank, Development Research ington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Chen, Shaohua, and Nlartin Ravallion "Hidden Impact? Calder6n, Cesar, Norman Loayza, and Luis Serven "Do Ex-Post Evaluation of an Anti-Poverty Program." Policy Capital Flows Respond to Risk and Return?" Policy Research Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C "Household WVelfare Impacts of China's Accession Cameron, Lisa A "Did Social Safety Net Scholarships to the World Trade Organization." Policy Research Working Reduce Drop-Out Rates during the Indonesian Economic lpaper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Crisis?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, ington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Then, Shaohua, and Yan Wang "China's Growth and Poverty "The Impact of the Indonesian Financial Crisis on Reduction: 'Irends between 1990 and 1999." Policy Research Children: Data from 100 Villages Survey." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group and World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Chomitz, Kenneth NI., and Timothy S. I'homas. 20(01. Campos-N46ndez, Javier, Antonio Estache, and Lourdes 'Irujillo. "Geographic Patterns of Land U'se and Land Intensity in "Processes, Information, and Accounting Gaps in the the Brazilian Amazon." Policy Research Working Paper Regulation of Argentina's Private Railways." Policy Research World Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, Working Paper World Bank, WA'orld Bank Institute, Wash- D.C. ington, D.C. (Thong, Alberto, and Florencio L6pez-de-Silanes. 20(02. Caprio, Gerard, Jr., and Patrick Honohan "Banking Policy "Privatization and Labor Force Restructuring around the and Niacroeconomic Stability: An Exploration." Policy Research NWorld." Policv Research Working Paper World Bank, Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Christiaensen. Luc, Lionel Demery, and Stefano Paternostro. Case, Anne, and Angus Deaton "Consumption, Health, 20(02. "Growth. Distribution, and Poverty in Africa: NMessages Gender, and Poverty." Policy Research Working Paper from the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper World World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Nianagement Bank, Africa Technical Families, Poverty Reduction and Network, Washington, D.C. Econonmic Mlanagement 3, Washington, D.C. 174 Bank Research Output

179 Claessens, Stijn, and Leora F Klapper "Bankruptcy around Clarke, George R. G., Frew A. Gebreab, and Henrv R. Nlgombelo. the World: Explanations of Its Relative Use." Policy Research "Telecommunications Reform in NIalawi." Policy Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Group, Washington, D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C. Claessens, Stijn, and Luc Laeven "Financial Development, Clarke, George R. G., Lixin Colin Xu, and Heng-fu Zou Property Rights, and Growth." Policy Research Working Paper "Finance and Income Inequality: Test of Alternative 'Fheories." World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Depart- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Claessens, Stijn, Daniela Klingebiel, and Sergio L. Schmukler Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, "Explaining the Nligration of Stocks from Exchanges in Emerg- and Susana M. Sanchez "Foreign Bank Entrv: Experiing Economies to International Centers." Policy Research ence, Implications for Developing Countries, and Agenda for Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Further Research." Policy Research Working Paper World Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice "Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign President and Chief Economist, Washington, I).C. Currency: The Role of Macroeconomic and Institutional "Bank Lending to Small Businesses in Latin Amer- Factors." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, ica: Does Bank Origin NMatter?" Policy Research Working Paper Development Research Group, Washington, D.C World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Clark, Ximena, David Dollar, and Alejandro NMicco D.C. "Maritime Transport Costs and Port Efficiency." Policy Research Collier, Paul, and Jan Dehn "Aid, Shocks, and Growth." jworking Paper World Bank, Development Research Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Group, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Clarke, George R. G "Bridging the Digital Divide: How Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler "Aid, Policy, and Growth Enterprise Ownership and Foreign Competition Affect in Post-Conflict Societies." Policy Research Working Paper Internet Access in Eastern Europe and Central Asia." Policy World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Research Working Paper World Bank, Development D.C. Research Group, Washington, D.C "Military Expenditure: Threats, Aid, and Arms Clarke, George R. G., and Robert Cull "Bank Privatization Races." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, in Argentina: A Model of Political Constraints and Differential Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Outcomes." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler, and Nfans Soderbom "On the Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Duration of Civil War." Policy Research Working Paper Clarke, George R. G., and Scott J. Wallsten "Universal(ly World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bad) Service: Providing Infrastructure Services to Rural and Poor Cowan, Kevin, and Quy-Toan Do "Financial Dollarization Urban Consumers." Policy Research Working Paper and Central Bank Credibility." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. D.C. Clarke, George R. G., and Lixin Colin Xu "Ownership, Cox, Donald "Private Interhousehold 'Iransfers in Vietnam Competition, and Corruption: Bribe Takers versus Bribe Pay- in the Early and Late 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper ers." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Devel World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, opment Research Group, Washington, D.C. D.C. Clarke, George R. G., Robert Cull, and Maria Soledad Martinez Cuevas, Mario A "Demand for Imports in Venezuela: A Peria "Does Foreign Bank Penetration Reduce Access Structural Time Series Approach." Policy Research Working to Credit in Developing Countries? Evidence from Asking Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Borrowers." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Region, Colombia, Nlexico, and Venezuela Country Manage- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ment lunit, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Output 175

180 "Money Demand in Venezuela: Nlultiple Cycle nical Families, Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Extraction in a Cointegration Framework." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Colombia, NMexico, and Venezuela Coun- Woojin Chung, and Bae Hwa-Ok "Why Is Son Prefertry Management UJnit, Washington, D.C. ment, Washington. D.C. Das Gupta, Monica, Jiang Zhenghua, Li Bohua, Xie Zhenming, ence So Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross-Country "Potential GDP Growth in Venezuela: A Structural Study of China, India, and the Republic of Korea." Policy Time Series Approach." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management U nit, Washington, D.C. Cull, Robert, Lemma W. Senbet, and Marco Sorge "Deposit Insurance and Financial Development." Policy Research Work- ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Cunningham, Wendy V "Breadwinner or Caregiver? How Household Role Affects Labor Choices in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector U nit, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Dasgupta, Susmita, [Iwe Deichmann, Craig NMeisner, and David Wheeler "The Poverty-Environment Nexus in Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Datt, Gaurav, and Martin Ravallion "Is India's Economic Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?" Policv Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- ington, D.C. de Castro, Alexandre Samy, Ian Goldin, and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva "Sectoral Allocation by Gender of Latin American "Relative Returns to Policy Reform: Evidence from Con- Workers over the Liberalization Period of the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector U nit, Washington, D.C. Currie, Elizabeth, Jean-Jacques Dethier, and Eriko 'Togo "Institutional Arrangements for Public Debt Management." trolled Cross-Country Regressions." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Dehejia, Rajeev H., and Roberta Gatti "Child Labor: The Role of Income Variability and Access to Credit in a Cross- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Section of Countries." Policy Research Working Paper Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Econ- omist; and Public Debt Management Group, Washington, D.C. Dado, Marinela E., and Daniela Klingebiel "Decentralized World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Deichmann, [Twe, and Somik V. Lall "Are You Satisfied? Citizen Feedback and Delivery of Urban Services." Policy Creditor-Led Corporate Restructuring: Cross-Country Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Experience." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Dailami, Mansoor, and Robert Hauswald "Contract Risks and Credit Spread Determinants in the International Project Bond Market." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Das, Jishnu, and Carolina Sanchez-Paramo "Short but Not Sweet: New Evidence on Short-Duration NMorbidities from India." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Das Gupta, Monica, Helene Grandvoinnet, and NMattia Romani. Research Group, Washington, D.C. Deichmann, TIwe, Marianne Fay, Jun Koo, and Somik V. Lall "Economic Structure, Productivity, and Infrastructure Quality in Southern Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group; and Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure UTnit, Washington, D.C. Deichmann, Uwe, Somik V. Lall, Ajay Suri, and Pragya Rajoria "Information-Based Instruments for Improved Urban Management." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Deininger, Klaus. 20(03. "Causes and Consequences of Civil Strife: "Fostering Community-Driven Development: What Micro-Level Evidence from Uganda." Policy Research Work- Role for the State?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group; and Africa 'I'ech- ing l'aper World Bank, Development Research Group, r.n, D,,,., D.C. 176 Bank Research Output

181 Deininger, Klaus, and Juan Sebastian Chamorro "Investment Demirgtif-Kunt, AslI, and Edward J. Kane "Deposit Insurand Income Effects of Land Regularization: The Case of ance around the Globe: Where Does It Work?" Policy Research Nicaragua." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Development Research Group, NVashington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Deininger, Klaus, and Songqing Jin "The Impact of Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Vojislav Maksimovic "Firms as Property Rights on Households' Investment, Risk Coping, Financial Intermediaries: Evidence from Trade Credit Data." and Policy Preferences: Evidence from China." Plolicy Research Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Working Paper World Bank. Development Research ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Group. Washington, D.C. Demombynes, Gabriel, and Berk Ozler "Crime and Local "Land Rental Markets as an Alternative to InequalityinSouthAfrica." PolicyResearch WorkingPaper2925. Government Reallocation? Equity and Efficiency Considera- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. tions in the Chinese Land Tenure System." Policy Research Desmond, Christopher, and Robert Greener "The Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Strategic Bse and Potential Demand for an HIV Vaccine in Group, NVashington, D.C. Southern Africa." Policy Research Working Paper World "Land Sales and Rental Markets in Iransition: Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Evidence from Rural Vietnam." Policy Research Working Ilaper Dessus, Sebastien "Human Capital and Growth: The Recov World Bank, Development Research Group, NVashington, ered Role of Education Systems." Policy Research Working D.C. Paper World Bank, Middle East and North Africa Region, Deininger, Klaus, Song(lingJin, Berhanu Adenew, Samuel Gehke- Social and Economic Development Group and Social Devel- Selassie, and Mulat Demeke "Market and Nonmarket opment Group, Washington, D.C. Transfers of Land in Ethiopia: Implications for Efficiency, Devarajan, Shantayanan, Margaret J. Miller, and Eric V. Swanson. Equity, and Nonfarm Development." Policy Research Work "Goals for Development: History, Prospects, and Costs." ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Human Washington, D.C. Development Network and Development Data Group, Wash- Deininger, Klaus, Song(ling Jin. Berhanu Adenew, Samuel Gebre- ington, D.C. Selassie, and Bcrhanu Nega "Tenure Security and Land- Dinh, Hinh T, Abebe Adugna, and Bernard Myers "The Related Investment: Evidence from Ethiopia." Policy Research Impact of Cash Budgets on Poverty Reduction in Zambia: Working Paper World Bank, Development Research A Case Study of the Conflict between Well-Intentioned Group, Washington, D.C. Macroeconomic Policy and Service Delivery to the Poor." de la Rocha, Manuel "'Fhe Cotonou Agreement and Its Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Africa Implications for the Regional 'Irade Agenda in Eastern and Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Southern Africa." Policy Research Working Paper World Division 1, Washington, D.C. Bank, Africa Region. Regional Integration and Cooperation Djankov, Simeon, Rafael La Porta, Florencio L6pez-de-Silanes, and Unit, Washington, D.C. Andrei Shleifer "The Regulation of Entry." Policy de la Torre, Augusto, Eduardo Levy Yevati. and Sergio L. Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Schmukler "Financial Globalization: U nequal Bless- Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. ings." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin Djankov, Simeon, Edward Glaeser, Rafael La Porta, Florencio America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Econ- L6pez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer "The New omist; and Development Research Group, Washington, Comparative Economics." Policy Research Working Paper D.C World Bank, Private Sector Advisory Services Department, "Living and Dying with Hard Pegs: The Rise and Washington, D.C. Fall of Argentina's Currency Board." Policy Research Working Dollar. David "Reform, Growth, and Poverty in Vietnam." Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Output 177

182 Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay "Institutions, Trade, and Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Growth: Revisiting the Evidence." Policy Research Working Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Economist, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C "Introduction to Property Theory: The Funda- Doma,, Ilker, Kyle Peters, and Yevgeny Yuzefovich "Does mental Theorems." Policy Research Working Paper the Exchange Rate Regime Affect Macroeconomic Perfor- World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice mance? Evidence from Transition Economies." Policy Research President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Ellerman, David, and Vladimir Kreacic "Transforming the Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Old into a Foundation for the New: Lessons of the Moldova Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. ARIA Project." Policy Research Working Paper World Donnelly-Roark, Paula, Karim Ouedraogo, and Xiao Ye Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice "Can Local Institutions Reduce Poverty? Rural Decentraliza- President and Chief Economist; and Europe and Central Asia tion in Burkina Faso." Policy Research Working Paper Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development tjnit, World Bank, Africa Region, Environment and Social Devel- Washington, D.C. opment Unit, Washington, D.C. Emran, M. Shahe, and Misuzu Otsuka "Gender, Genera- Ebel, Robert D., and Serdar Yilmaz "On the Nleasurement tions, and Nonfarm Participation." Policy Research Working and Impact of Fiscal Decentralization." Policy Research Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, ington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Emran, M. Shahe, and Forhad Shilpi "Marketing Exter- Edmonds, Eric, and Carrie Turk "Child Labor in Transition nalities and Market Development." Policy Research Working in Vietnam." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. Eid, Florence "Applying the Decision Rights Approach to Epifani, Paolo "Trade Liberalization, Firm Performance, and a Case of Hospital Institutional Design." Policy Research Labor Mlarket Outcomes in the Developing World: What Can Working Paper World Bank. Operations Evaluation We Learn from Micro-Level Data?" Policy Research Working Department, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, "Hospital Governance and Incentive Design: The Washington, D.C. Case of Corporatized Public Hospitals in Lebanon." Policy Eskeland, Gunnar S., and Deon Filmer "Autonomy, Research Working Paper World Bank, Operations Participation, and Learning in Argentine Schools: Findings Evaluation Department, Washington, D.C. and Their Implications for Decentralization." Policy Research Eifert, Benn, Alan Gelb, and Nils Borje Tallroth "The Polit- Working Paper World Bank, Development Research ical Economy of Fiscal Policy and Economic NManagement in Group, Washington, D.C. Oil-Exporting Countries." Policy Research Working Paper Essama-Nssah, B "Assessing the Distributional Impact of World Bank, Africa Regional Office, Office of the Chief Public Policy." Policy Research Working Paper World Economist, Washington, D.C. Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Elbers, Chris, Jean 0. Lanjouw, and Peter Lanjouw "Micro-Level Washington, D.C. Estimation of Welfare." Policy Research Working Paper Estache, Antonio, and Eugene Kouassi "Sector Organiza- World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. tion, Governance, and the Inefficiency of African Water El-Laithy, Heba, NMichael Lokshin, and Arup Banerji Utilities." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, "Poverty and Economic Growth in Egypt, " Policy World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Estache, Antonio, and Lucia Quesada "Concession Contract Research Group, Washington, D.C. Renegotiations: Some Efficiency versus Equity Dilemmas." Ellerman, David "Helping People Help Themselves: Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, World Bank 'Toward a 'I'heory of Autonomy-Compatible Help." Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. 178 Bonk Research Output

183 Estache, Antonio, NMarianela Gonzalez, and Lourdes 'Irujillo Fajnzylber, Pablo, William F. Nlaloney, and Eduardo Ribeiro "Technical Efficiency Gains from Port Reform: 'Fhe Potential "Firm Entry and Exit, Labor Demand, and 'ITrade Reform: for Yardstick Competition in Nlexico." Policy Research Evidence from Chile and Colombia." Policy Research Work- Working Paper WVorld Bank, World Bank Institute, ing Paper NWorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Washington, D.C. Region. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Estache, Antonio, Marco Nlanacorda. and 'I'ommaso NI. Valletti. Sector I nit, WVashington, D.C "Telecommunication Reforms, Access Regulation, and Fallon, Peter. Vivian Hon, Zia Qureshi, and Dilip Ratha Internet Adoption in Latin America." Tlolicy Research "Nliddle-Income Countries: Development Challenges and Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, Growing Global Role." Policy Research Working Paper Washington, D).C. \Vorld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic NManagement Estache, Antonio. MIartin A. Rossi, and Christian A. Ruzzier Network and Development Prospects Group, Washington, "The Case for International Coordination of Electricitv l).c. Regulation: Evidence from the Nleasurement of Efficiency in Feder, Gershon, Rinku Nlurgai, and Jaime B. Quizon "Send- South America." Policy Research Working Paper World ing Farmers Back to School: The Impact of Farmer Field Bank, WVorld Bank lnstitute: and Latin America and the Schools in Indonesia." Policy Research Working Paper Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. I Tnit, Washington, D.C. Fernandes, Ana NI "Trade Policy, Trade Volumes, and Plant- Estache, Antonio, Nlartin Rodriguez Pardina, Jose Maria Rodriguez, Level Productivity in Colombian Nlanufacturing Industries." and (German Sember "An Introduction to Financial and Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Economic Nlodeling for I ftility Regulators." Policy Research ment Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Working lpaper 30(01. W\orld Bank, World Bank InstitLte and Fernando, Deepthi, Leora Klapper, Viktor Sulla, and Dimitri P'rivate Sector l)evelopment and Infrastructure Vice Presi- Vittas. 2(003. "'I'he Global Growth of Nlutual Funds." Policy dency, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Evenett, Simon J., NMargaret C. Lcvenstein, and Valerie V. Suslow. Research Group, Washington, D.C "International Cartel Enforcement: Lessons from the Ferreira, Francisco H. G., and Phillippe G. Leite "Policy 1990s." Policy Research Working Papcr World Bank, Options for NMeeting the Nlillennium Development Goals in Development Research Group, WNashington, D.C. Brazil: Can Nlicro-Simulations Help?" Policy Research Fafchamps. NMarcel, and Eleni Gabre-Madhin. 2(1(1. "Agricultural Working Paper World Bank, Development Research NMarkets in Benin and Nlalawi: The Operation and Perfor- Group, Washington, D.C. mance of Traders." lolicv Rescarch Vorking Paper World Fiess, Norbert NM "Capital Flows, Country Risk, and Bank, Development Research Group, WNashington, D).C. Contagion." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi "'I'he Spatial Divi- Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief sion of Labor in Nepal." Policy Research Working Plaper Economist. Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, W ashington, Fiess, Norbert NI., NMarco Fugazza, and William F Maloney D.C. "Exchange Rate Appreciations, Labor Nlarket Rigidities, and Fafchamps, Mlarcel, Said El Hamine, and Albert Zeufack. 20(02. Informality" Policy Research NVorking Paper World Bank, "Learning to Export: Evidence from M loroccan Nlanufacturing." Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Economist, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, NWashington, D.C. Filmer, IDeon. 20(02. "Fever and Its Treatment among the Nlore Fajnzylber, Pablo, and William F NMaloney 2(001. "How Compa- and Less l'oor in Sub-Saharan Africa." Policy Research rable Are Labor Demand Elasticities across Countries?" Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Policy Research Working Plaper World Bank, Latin Amer- Group, Washington, D.C. ica and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Finger, J. Nlichacl, and Julio J. Nogues "The U nbalanced Nlanagement Sector Ulnit, WN7ashington, [).C. Uruguay Round Outcome: The New Areas in Future WTO Bank Research Output 179

184 Negotiations." Policy Research Working Paper World Gallardo, Joselito "A Framework for Regulating Microfinance Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Institutions: The Experience in Ghana and the Philippines." Finger, J. Michael, Francis Ng, and Sonam Wangehuk Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial "Antidumping as Safeguard Policy." Policy Research Working Sector Development Department, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Gallup, John Luke "'I'hc Wage Labor Market and Inequalington, D.C. ity in Vietnam in the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Mattoo, and Ileana Cristina Neagu World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, "Assessing the Impact of Communication Costs on International D.C. Trade." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Ganslandt, Nlattias, and Keith E. NMaskus "Parallel Imports Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. of Pharmaceutical Products in the European Union." Policy Fink, Carsten, Aaditya Nlattoo, and Randeep Rathindran Research Working Paper World Bank, Development "Liberalizing Basic Telecommunications: The Asian Experi- Research Group, Washington. D.C. ence." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Gauri, Varun "Social Rights and Economics: Claims to Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Health Care and Education in Developing Countries." Policy "An Assessment of Telecommunications Reform in Research Working P'aper World Bank, Development Developing Countries." Policy Research Working Paper Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Gauri, Varun, and Peyvand Khaleghian "Immunization in Fischer, Ronald, and Alexander Galetovic "Regulatory Developing Countries: Its Political and Organizational Deter- Governance and Chile's Electricity Shortage." Policy minants." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Research Working Paper World Bank. World Bank Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Institute, Washington, D.C. Gauri, Varun, and Ayesha Vawda "Vouchers for Basic Fisman, Raymond, and Inessa Love "Trade Credit, Finan- Education in Developing Countries: A Principal-Agent cial Intermediary Development, and Industry Growth." Policy Perspective." Policy Research Working Paper World Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Bank, Development Research Group and Human Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Network, Washington, D.C "Patterns of Industrial Development Revisited: Gauthier, Bernard, and Ritva Reinikka "Shifting Tax The Role of Finance." Policy Research Working Paper Burdens through Exemptions and Evasion: An Empirical World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Investigation of ltganda." Policy Research Working Paper D.C World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Fofack, Hippolyte "The Nature and Dynamics of Poverty D.C. Determinants in Burkina Faso in the 1990s." Policy Research Gebreab, Frew Amare "Getting Connected: Competition Working Paper World Bank, Africa Technical Families, and Diffusion in African Mobile Telecommunications Macroeconomics 3, Washington, D.C. NMarkets." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Fremond, Olivier, and Nlierta Capaul "The State of Corporate Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Governance: Experience from Country Assessments." Policy Gine, Xavier, and Robert M\. Townsend "Evaluation of Research Working Paper World Bank, Private Sector Financial Liberalization: A General Equilibrium Model with Advisory Services Department, Washington, D.C. Constrained Occupation Choice." Policy Research Working Freund, Caroline "Reciprocity in Free Trade Agreements." Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- ington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Glaessner, Thomas, 'Iom Kellermann, and Valerie McNevin Galasso, Emanuela, NMartin Ravallion, and Agustin Salvia "Electronic Security: Risk Mitigation in Financial Transactions "Assisting the Transition from Workfare to Work: A Random- -Public Policy Issues." Policy Research Working Paper ized Experiment." Policy Research Working Paper World World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department, Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. 180 Bank Research Output

185 Glewwe, Paul, and Phong Nguyen "Economic Niobility in Vietnam in the 1990s." Policy Research Working Paper Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure tjnit, NVashington, D.C. World Bank, Development Rescarch Group, WVashington, [).C. Guasch, J. Luis, Jean-Jacques Laffont, and St6phane Straub Glewwe, Paul. Stefanie Koch, and Bui Linh Nguyen "Child "Renegotiation of Concession Contracts in Latin America." Nutrition, Economic Growth, and the Provision of Health Care Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin Services in Vietnam in the 1990s." Policy Research WVorking America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Infrastricture U1nit, NVashington, D.C. Washington, D.C. C,,,.r.\\iilIr Emily, and Hnin Hnin Pyne "Gender Gonzalez, Christian Y., David Rosenblatt. and Steven B. Webb. Dimensions of (Child Labor and Street Children in Brazil." 20(02. "Stabilizing Intergovernmental Transfers in Latin Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America: A Complement to National/Suhnational Fiscal Rules?" Policy Research NVorking Paper World Bank, I)evelop- America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector UTnit, Washington, ).C. ment Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Haggartv, Luke, Penelope Brook, and Ana NMaria Zuluaga Economist; and l.atin America and the Carihhean Region, Nlexico, Colombia, and Venezuela Country Department, Washington. D.C. Gradstein, NIark, and Branko Nlilanovic. 20(12. "Does L.ibelrtt "Thirst for Reform? Private Sector Participation in Providing M\exico City's Vater Sipply." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, f).c. Ega/itf?A Survey of the Empirical Links hetween Democracv Haggarty, Luke, Mlary NI. Shirley, and Scott Wallsten and Inequality Xwith Some Evidence on the 'Transition "'Telecommunication Reform in Ghana." Policy Research Economies." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WN:ashington, D.C. Gragnolati, Nlichele. and Alessandra Nlarini. 20(03. "HIealth and Povertv in Guatemala." P'olicy Research Working Paper WVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Hallward-Driemeier, Mlary, Scott Wallsten, and Lixin Colin Xu "'I'he Investment Climate and the Firm: Firm-Level World Bank, Latin America and the Caribhean Region, Human Evidence from China." Policy Research Working Paper Development Sector Itnit, Washington, D.C. Grais, WVafik, and Zeynep Kanrur. 20(03. "'I'he Changing Financial W\orld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Haney, Mlichael, and Mlaria Shkaratan "Mline Closure and Landscape: Opportunities and Ci, ii.,for the Mliddle East Its Impact on the Community: Five Years after Mine Closure and North Africa." Policy Research Working Paper NVorld in Romania, Russia, and UJkraine." Policy Research Working Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Paper World Bank, Eturope and (Central Asia Region, Washington, D.C. Infrastructure and Energy Services Department, Washington, Grigorian, David A., and Vlad Nlanole ")eterminants of D.C. Commercial Bank Performancc in 'Iransition: An Application Harms, Philipp, Aaditya Mlarton, and Ludger Schuknecht of Data Envelopment Analysis." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development Unit, WVashing- 'Explaining Liberalization Commitments in Financial Services 'Irade." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ton, D.C. Harrison, Ann E., Inessa Love, and Mlargaret S. MeMlillan Grootaert, Christiaan, and Deepa Naravan "Local Institu- tions, Poverty, and Flotusehold Welfare in Bolivia." Policy Research Working Paper World B3ank, Social Development "Global Capital Flows and Financing (Constraints." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Department and Poverty Reduction and Economic Manage- Harrison. Glenn W, Thomas E Rutherford, and David G. 'Iarr ment Network, Washington. D.(. Guasch, J. Luis, and Joseph Kogan. 2(0)03. "Just-in-Case Inventories: A Cross-Country Analysis." P'olicy Research \Working Paper XWorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean "Chile's Regional Arrangements and the Free t'rade Agreement of the Americas: I'he Importance of Nlarket Access." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank Research Output 181

186 Harrison, Glenn W., 'I'homas F. Rutherford, David G. Tarr, and munist Societies." Policy Research Working Paper World Angelo Gurgel "Regional, NMultilateral, and Ulnilateral Bank, Development Research Group. \\, D, ).C. 'Irade lpolicies of Niercosur for Growth and Povertv Reduction Honohan. Patrick "Avoiding the Pitfalls in 'laxing Finanin Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, cial Intermediation." IPolicy Research Working Paper D)evclopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. I lerrera. Santiago, and Guillermo Perry "'rropical Bubbles: Asset lprices in Latin America, " Policy Research Working Paper WN'orld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region. Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Iliiimmelherg, Charles P, R. Glenn Hubbard, and Inessa Love "Investor Protection, Ownership, and the Cost of Capital." l'olicy Research Working Paper World Bank, I)evelop- ment Research Group. WVashington, D.C. I loekman. Bernard "Economic Development and the World Irade Organization after Doha." Policy Research Working Paper NWorld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Honohan, Patrick, and Anqing Shi "Deposit Dollarization and the Financial Sector in Emerging Economics." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Hood, Ron, David Husband, and Fei Yll. 20(02. "Recurrent Expen- diture Requirements of Capital Projects: E.stimation for Budget Purposes." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Mlanagement Sector tunit, Washington, D.C. lanchovichina, Elena, and Will Nartin. 20(3. "Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the World 'rade Organization." P'olicy Research Working Paper World Bank, Poverty Reduction 20(02. "Strengthening the Global 'Frade Architecture for and Economic NManagement Nctwork and Development Development." I'olicv Research Working Paper World Research Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. lanchovichina, Elena, Alessandro Nicita, and Isidro Soloaga. 2(0(1. I lockman, Bernard, and Petros C. Nlavroidis "Economic D)evelopment. Competition Policy, and the World Trade Organization." IPolicy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. h lockman, Bernard. and Patrick Messerlin "Initial Conditions and Incentives for Arab Economic Integration: Can the E.uropean Community's Success Be Emulated?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. I loekman, Bernard. Hiau Looi Kee, and Mareelo Olarreaga "Markups, Entry Regulation, and 'I'rade: Does Country Size Nlatter?" IPolicy Research Working Paper World Bank, I)evelopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. "'1'rade Reform and Household Welfare: T'he Case of Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- ment Research Group, Washington, D).C. Ilahi, Nadeem "Children's Work and Schooling: Does Gender Mfatter? Evidence from the Peru LSNIS Panel Data." Policy Research Working Paper W orld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector tutnit, Washington, D.C "Gender and the Allocation of Adult 'l'ime: Evidenec from the Perti LSNMS Panel I)ata." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Gender Sector tutnit, Washington, D.C. Impavido, Gregorio "On the Governance of Public Pension l lockman, Bernard, Francis Ng, and Nlarcelo Olarreaga Fund Management." Policy Research Working Plaper "Reducing Agricultural'lariffs versus Domestic Support: What's Mlore Important for Developing Countries?" Policy Research World Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policv l)epart- ment, NNashington, D.C. Workinig Paper World Bank, Development Research Impavido, Gregorio, Alberto R. Musalem, and Thierrv 'l'ressel Group, Washington, D.C. I loekman,1 ernard, Constantine Michalopoulos, Maurice Schiff, and David 'larr. 2(101. "'trade Policy Reform and Poverty Alleviation." Policy Research NVorking Paper World Bank, "Contractual Savings Institutions and Banks' Stability and Efficiency." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Development Department, \Washington, D.C "'The Impact of Contractual Savings Institutions on Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Securities NMarkets." Policy Research Working Paper IHotf, Karla R., and Joseph E. Stiglitz "After the Big Bang? Obstacles to the Emergence of the Rule of Law in Postcom- World Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Depart- ment, Washington, D.C. 182 Bank Reseatch Output

187 Impavido, Gregorio, Alberto R. Musalem, and Dimitri Vittas "Contractual Savings in Countries with a Small Financial Sector." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Development Department, Washington, D.C. Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Never Too Late to Get Together Again: Turning the Czech and Slovak Customs Union into a Stepping Stone Islam, Roumeen "Do More Transparent Governments to EU Integration." Policy Research Working Paper Govern Better?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Islam, Roumeen, and Claudio E. Montenegro "What World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Kaminsky, Graciela, and Sergio L. Schmukler "Emerging Markets Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk Determines the Quality of Institutions?" Policy Research and Stock Returns?" Policy Research Working Paper Working Paper World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Izquierdo, Alejandro, Jacques Morisset, and Marcelo Olarreaga. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Short- and Long-Run Integration: Do Capital Controls Matter?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Information Diffusion in International Markets." "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Financial Liberalization." Policy Research Working Paper ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Jack, William "Public Policy toward Nongovernmental Kathuria, Sanjay, Will Martin, and Anjali Bhardwaj Organizations in Developing Countries." Policy Research "Implications for South Asian Countries of Abolishing the Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Multifibre Arrangement." Policy Research Working Paper Group, Washington, D.C World Bank, Development Research Group and South Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion "Does Piped Water Asia Region, Washington, D.C. Reduce Diarrhea for Children in Rural India?" Policy Research Kaufmann, Daniel, and Aart Kraay "Growth Without Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Governance." Policy Research Working Paper World Group, Washington, D.C. Bank, World Bank Institute and Development Research Group, "Household Income Dynamics in Rural China." Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Kaufmann, Daniel, Aart Kraay, and Pablo Zoido-Lobat6n ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. James, Estelle, Alejandra Cox Edwards, and Rebeca Wong "The Gender Impact of Pension Reform: A Cross-Country Analysis." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Washington, D.C. Jensen, Jesper, and David Tarr "Trade, Foreign Exchange, and Energy Policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Reform Agenda, Economic Implications, and Impact on the Poor." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Jordan, Cally, and Giovanni Majnoni "Financial Regulatory Harmonization and the Globalization of Finance." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Kaminski, Bartlomiej, and Beata K. Smarzynska "Foreign Direct Investment and Integration into Global Production and Distribution Networks: The Case of Poland." Policy Research "Governance Matters II: Updated Indicators for " Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group and World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Kawai, Masahiro, and Shinji Takagi "Japan's Official Development Assistance: Recent Issues and Future Directions." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Kee, Hiau Looi "Productivity versus Endowments: A Study of Singapore's Sectoral Growth, " Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Markups, Returns to Scale, and Productivity: A Case Study of Singapore's Manufacturing Sector." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Productivity or Endowments? Sectoral Evidence for Hong Kong's Aggregate Growth." Policy Research Work- Bank Research Output 183

188 ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Klein, Michael "Ways Out of Poverty: Diffusing Best Washington, D.C. Practices and Creating Capabilities-Perspectives on Policies Kee, Hiau Looi, and Bernard Hoekman "Imports, Entry, and for Poverty Reduction." Policy Research Working Paper Competition Law as Market Disciplines." Policy Research World Bank, Private Sector Advisory Services Department, Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Washington, D.C. Group, Washington, D.C. Kondo, Masanori "The Political Economy of Commodity Keefer, Philip, and Stephen Knack "Boondoggles and Expro- Export Policy: A Case Study of India." Policy Research priation: Rent-Seeking and Policy Distortion When Property Rights Working Paper World Bank, South Asia Region, Rural Are Insecure." Policy Research WorkingPaper World Bank, Development Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Koolwal, Gayatri, and Ranjan Ray "Estimating the Endoge "Social Polarization, Political Institutions, and Coun- nously Determined Intrahousehold Balance of Power and Its try Creditworthiness." Policy Research Working Paper Impact on Expenditure Patterns: Evidence from Nepal." World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Khaleghian, Peyvand "Decentralization and Public ment Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Services: The Case of Immunization." Policy Research Economist, Washington, D.C. WVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Kopits, Elizabeth, and Maureen Cropper "Traffic Fatalities Group, Washington, D.C. and Economic Growth." Policy Research Working Paper Khandker, Shahidur R "Nlicro-Finance and Poverty: World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh." Policy Research Kraay, Aart, Isidro Soloaga, and James Tybout "Product Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Quality, Productive Efficiency, and International Technology Group, Washington, D.C. Diffusion: Evidence from Plant-Level Panel Data." Policy Khandker, Shahidur R., and Rashidur R. Faruqee "The Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Impact of Farm Credit in Pakistan." Policy Research Working Research Group, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Laeven, Luc "International Evidence on the Value of Washington, D.C. Product and Geographic Diversity." Policy Research Working Khemani, Stuti "Federal Politics and Budget Deficits: Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Evidence from the States of India." Policy Research Working Department, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, "Pricing of Deposit Insurance." Policy Research Washington, D.C. Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and "Partisan Politics and Intergovernmental Transfers Policy Department, Washington, D.C. in India." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Laeven, Luc, and Giovanni Majnoni "Loan Loss Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Provisioning and Economic Slowdowns: Too Much, Too Late?" Kikeri, Sunita, and John Nellis "Privatization in Competi- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial tive Sectors: The Record to Date." Policy Research Working Sector Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Private Sector Advisory Services Laeven, Luc, Daniela Klingebiel, and Randy Kroszner "Finan- Department, Washington, D.C. cial Crises, Financial Dependence, and Industry Growth." Pol- Klapper, Leora F, and Inessa Love "Corporate Governance, icy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Investor Protection, and Performance in Emerging Markets." Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Laffont, Jean-Jacques, and Tchetche N'Guessan "Telecomment Research Group, Washington, D.C. munications Reform in C6te d'lvoire." Policy Research Work- Klapper, Leora E, Virginia Sarria-Allende, and Victor Sulla ing Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, "Small- and Medium-Size Enterprise Financing in Eastern Washington, D.C. Europe." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Lall, Somik V., and Sudeshna Ghosh "'Learning by Dining': Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Informal Networks and Productivity in Mexican Industry." 184 Bank Research Output

189 Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lall, Somik V., Jun Koo, and Sanjoy Chakravorty "Diversity Matters: The Economic Geography of Industry Location in India." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lall, Somik V., Zmarak Shalizi, and Uwe Deichmann "Agglomeration Economies and Productivity in Indian Industry." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lall, Somik V, Uwe Deichmann, Mattias K. A. Lundberg, and Nazmul Chaudhury "Tenure, Diversity, and Commitment: Community Participation for Urban Service Provision." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lanjouw, Peter, Nlenno Pradhan, Fadia Saadah, Haneen Sayed, and Robert Sparrow "Poverty, Education, and Health in Indonesia." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group; and East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Larson, Donald E, and Frank Plessmann "Do Farmers Choose to Be Inefficient? Evidence from Bicol, Philippines." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lecocq, Franck, and Kenneth Chomitz "Optimal Use of Carbon Sequestration in a Global Climate Change Strategy: Is There a Wooden Bridge to a Clean Energy Future?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lecocq, Franck, and Renaud Crassous "International Climate Regime beyond 2012: Are Quota Allocation Rules Robust to LTncertainty?" Policy Research WorkingPaper3000. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lederman, Daniel "Income, Wealth, and Socialization in Lederman, Daniel, Norman Loayza, and Rodrigo Reis Soares "Accountability and Corruption: Political Institutions Matter." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Lee, Ho-Chul, and Mary P. MeNulty "East Asia's Dynamic Development Model and the Republic of Korea's Experiences." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Lerman, Zvi, Csaba Csaki, and Gershon Feder "Land Policies and Evolving Farm Structures in Transition Countries." Policy Research Working Paper NVorld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Levine, Ross, and Sergio L. Schmukler "Migration, Spillovers, and Trade Diversion: The Impact of International- ization on Stock Market Liquidity." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lindelow, Magnus, and Adam Wagstaff "Health Facility Sur- veys: An Introduction." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lokshin, Michael, and Branko Jovanovic "Wage Differentials and State-Private Sector Employment Choice in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia." Policy Research NVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Lokshin, Michael, and Martin Ravallion "Rich and Powerful? Subjective Power and Welfare in Russia." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. L6pez-Acevedo, Gladys "An Alternative Technical Education System in Mexico: A Reassessment of CONALEP." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector [Jnit, Washington, D.C. Argentina: Provocative Responses from Individuals." Policy "Evolution of Earnings and Rates of Return to Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America Education in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Lederman, Daniel, and William E Maloney "Trade Structure and Growth." Policy Research Working Paper World World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit and Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela Department, Washington, D.C. Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the "Determinants of Technology Adoption in Nilexico." Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin Amer- Bank Research Outpul 115

190 ica and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C "School Attendance and Child Labor in Ecuador." "Informality Revisited." Policy Research Working Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Unit, Washington, D.C. Marini, Alessandra, and Michele Gragnolati "Malnutrition "Teachers' Incentives and Professional Development and Poverty in Guatemala." Policy Research Working Paper in Schools in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Human Development Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Wash- Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, Andrew Powell, and Ivanna Vladkova Hollar "Banking on Foreigners: The ington, D.C "Technology and Firm Performance in Mexico." Behavior of International Bank Lending to Latin America, Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C " Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge, and Duanjie Chen "The Impact "Technology and Skill Demand in Mexico." Policy of NAFTA and Options for Tax Reform in Mexico." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Mexico-Anchor, Washington, D.C "Wages and Productivity in Mexican Manufactur- Mattoo, Aaditya "China's Accession to the World Trade ing." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Love, Inessa "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Love, Inessa, and Lea Zicchino "Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel Organization: The Services Dimension." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Mattoo, Aaditya, and Carsten Fink "Regional Agreements and Trade in Services: Policy Issues." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Mattoo, Aaditya, Marcelo Olarreaga, and Kamal Saggi "Mode of Foreign Entry, Technology Transfer, and Foreign Direct Vector Autoregression." Policy Research Working Paper Investment Policy." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Madani, Dorsati H "Regional Integration and Industrial Mattoo, Aaditya, Randeep Rathindran, and Arvind Subramanian. Growth among Developing Countries: The Case of Three "Measuring Services Trade Liberalization and Its Impact ASEAN Members." Policy Research Working Paper on Economic Growth: An Illustration." Policy Research World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. D.C "Politically Optimal Tariffs: An Application to Mattoo, Aaditya, Devesh Roy, and Arvind Subramanian "The Egypt." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and Its Rules of Origin: Gen- Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. erosity Undermined?" Policy Research Working Paper Maloney, William F "Evaluating Emergency Programs." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin World Bank, Development Research Group. Washington, D.C. McCarthy, E Desmond "Social Policy and Macroeconom- America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Reduction and ics: The Irish Experience." Policy Research Working Paper Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. World Bank, External Affairs. Washington, D.C "Missed Opportunities: Innovation and Resource- McCarthy, F. Desmond, and Holger Wolf "Comparative Based Growth in Latin America." Policy Research Working Life Expectancy in Africa." Policy Research Working Papcr 186 Bank Research Output

191 2668. World Bank, Development Research Group, W ashington, ing Paper World Bank, Financial Scetor StratcgN alid D. C. Policy Department, W,ashington, D.C. Nlckenzie, Dav id "An Econometric Analysis of the Credit- Mishkin, Frederic S., and Miguel A. Savastano. 2(01. 'Žlonetar% worthiness of IBRD Borrowers." Policy Research NWorking Policy Strategies for Latin America."' Policy Researchl Vorking Paper NVorld Bank, Office of the Senior Vice President Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Polic\ and Chief Financial Officcr, Credit Risk Division, WVashington, Department, Washington, 1).(. D.C. Nlistiaen, Johan A., and Nlartin Ravallion "Survey (Comipli- Nleigas, lelo "ltsing Development-Oriented Equity Invest- ance and the Distribution of Income." I'olicy Rescarch ment as a '16ol for Restructuring Transition Banking Sectors." P'oliev Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development [Unit, W ashington, D.C. Niesserlin. Patrick. 20(03. "Agriculture in the Doha Agenda." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Developmcnt Research Group, Washington, D.C. Nlcxico Air Quality Nlanagement Team "Improving Air Quality in Mletropolitan M,exico City: An Economic Valuation." Policy Research WVorking paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Environmentally and Socially SustainahIc Development Seetor UInit, Washington, D.C. I\lilanov ic, Uranko "Can We Discern the Effect of Globalization on Income D)istribution? Evidence from Hlousehold Blidget Surveys." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, [)evelopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Working Paper World Bank. I)evelopment Researci Group. Washington. D.C. Mitra, Pradeep, and Nicholas Stern "'lax Systeniis in Transition." Policy Research WVorking Paper World B1ank. Europe and Central Asia Region, Office of the Regional Vice President; and Development Economics, Office of the Seniior Vice President and Chief Economist, Washington. 1).C. Mlorisset, Jacques. 20)03. "I)oes a Country Need a P'romotion Agency to Attract Foreign l)irect Investment' A Small Analyti(cal Model Applied to 58 Countries." policy Researchi Working Paper NVorld Bank, Foreign Investmcnt Adv isory Service, Washington, D.C. Nlorisset, Jacques, and Olivier Lumenga Nesso. 20()2. "Administrative Barriers to Foreign Investment in Developing (Countries. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank and International Finance Corporation, Foreign Investment Advisory Service, WXashington. D.C. 20))3. "Income Convergence during the Disintegration of the Nlundlak, Yair, Donald F Larson. and Rita Bultzer. 20)0)2. "D)eter- World Economn, " Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. minants of Agricultural Grovth in Iindonesia. the lphilippines, and Thailand." Policy Research W'orking Paper 281)3. World Mlin. Hong-Ghi. 200)2. "Inequality, the Price of Nontradables, and Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, ).C. the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Cross-Country Evidenee." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Mlanagement Network, NW.ashiington, [).C. Minor, Nicholais, and Bob Baulch "'Fhe Spatial Distribution Nlurrugarra, Edmundo, and Jose Signoret "VulnerabilitN in Consumption, Education, and Health: Evidence from Nloldo%a during the Russian Crisis." Policy Research \Vorking Papcr World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Regio,o, I lumran Development Sector I Init, NVashington, I).C. of Povert in Vietnam and the Potential for Targeting." Policy Nagelkerke, Nico J. D.. and Sake J. de Vlas. 21)1)3. "The Rescarch Working Paper World Bank, Development Rescarch Group; and linternational Food Policy Research Institte. \Vashington. D.C. Nlishkin, Frederic S. 20)01. "Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial (Crises in Emerging Mlarket Economies." Policy Rescarch Working lpaper bnorld Bank, F inancial Sector Epidemiological Impact ofan HIV Vaccine on the HIV/Al DS Epidemic in Southern India." Policy Research Working Papcr WVorld Bank, D)evelopment Research (irolup, Washington, D.C. Ng, Francis, and Alexander Yeats. 20))3. "Export Profiles of Small Landlocked Countries: A Casc Study Focusing on 'Ihcir Impli- Strategy and Plolicy Department, Washington, D.C. cations for Lesotho." Policy Research Working Paper 30(). 20)01. "From M\onerarv 'Iargeting to Inflation Targeting: World Bank, Development Rescarch Group, Washington. Lessons from Industrialized Countries." Policy Research \Work- D.C. Bank Research Output 1 87

192 N i.. ftrade Trends in East Asia: What Are 'Their Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth?" Policy Research Working Paper WNorld Bank, Development Research Group, WA7ashington, D.C. Nguyen, Nga Nguyet "Tlrends in the Education Sector from " Policy Research WXorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Nicita, Alessandro, and NMarcelo Olarreaga "'Irade and Production, " Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Nicita, Alessandro, and Susan Razzaz. 2(003. "Who Benefits and "Pooling, Savings, and Prevention: Nlitigating the Risk of Old Age Povcrty in Chile." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Human Development Sector tt nit, Washington, D.C. Palacios, Nliguel "Options for Financing Lifelong Learning." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Human D)evclopment Network, Washington, D.C. Pargal, Sheoli "Regulation and Private Sector Investment in Infrastructure: Evidence from Latin America." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Corporate Secre- tariat, Washington, D.C. How Much? How Gender Affects Welfare Impacts of a Boom- Pavcnik, Nina, Andreas Blom, Pinelopi Goldberg, and Norbert R. ing Tlextile Industry." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group and Poverty Reduc- tion and Economic Nlanagement Network, Washington, D.C. Nicoletti, Giuseppe, and Stefano Scarpetta "Regulation, Productivity, and Growth: OECD Evidence." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Human Development Network, Washington, D.C. Nogues, Julio J "t U.S. Contingent Protection against Honey Imports: Development Aspects and the Doha Round." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Novaes, Hillegonda Nlaria Dutilh, Expedito J. A. Luna, Nlois6s Goldbaum, Samuel Kilsztajn, Anaclaudia Rossbach, and Jose de la Rocha Carvalheiro "'I'he Potential D)emand for an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper Schadv "'l'rade Liberalization and Labor Mfarket Adjust- ment in Brazil." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Sector t nit, Washington, D).C. Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., B. Essama-Nssah, and Issouf Samak6. 2(002. "A Poverty Analysis Nlacroeconomic Simulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Nlacro-Mlodels." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Economics, Officc of the Scnior Vice President and Chief Economnist; and Poverty Reduction and Economic NManagement Network, Washiington, D.C. Perry, Guillermo. 2(003. "Can Fiscal Rules Help Reduce Nlacro World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Economist, Washington, D).C. D.C. Over, Nead, Bernard Bakote'e, Raman Velayudhan, Peter Wilikai, economic Volatility in the Latin America and Caribbean Region?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief IPerry, Guillermo, and Luis Scrven "The Anatomy of a NMultiple Crisis: Why Was Argentina Special and What Can and Patricia NI. Graves "Impregnated Nets Cannot Fully We Learn from It?" Policy Research Working Paper Substitute for DDT' Field Effectiveness of Nlalaria Prevention in Solomon Islands." Policy Research Working Plaper WVorld Bank. Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Pitt, Nlark NI., Shahiidur R. Khandker, and Jennifer Cartwright Ozden,,aglar, and Eric Reinhardt "'Fhe Perversity of Preferences: T'he Generalized System of Preferences and Developing Country Trade Policies, (." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, I)evelopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Packard, Truman G "Is There a Positive Incentive Effect from Privatizing Social Security? Evidence from Latin America." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Human Development Sector UInit, NVashington, D).C. "Does Micro-Credit Empower Women? Evidence from Bangladesh." Policy Research Working Plaper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Pizzati, Lodovico. 2(0(02. "Labor NMarket Implications of Switching the Currency Peg in a General Equilibrium NIodel for Lithua- nia." Policy Research NVorking Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Nlanagement Sector l nit, Washington, D.C. P'leskovic, Boris, Anders Ashlnd, NWilliam Bader, and Robert Camp- bell "Capacitv Building in Economics: Education and 188 Bank Research Output

193 Research in Tlransition Economies." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank. Research Advisory Staff, Washington, D.C. Powell, Andrew "A Capital Accord for Emerging Economies?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Financial Sector Strategy and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Psacharopoulos, George, and Harry Anthony Patrinos "Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update." Policy Research W;Vorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington. D.C "Externalities in Rural Development: Evidence for China." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "The Debate on Globalization, Poverty, and Inequal- ity: Why NMeasurement NMatters." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper W7\orld Bank, Latin "Targeted Transfers in Poor Countries: Revisiting America and the Caribbean Region, Education Sector U nit, WVashington, D.C. Rajkumar, Andrew Sunil, and Vinaya Swaroop "Public Spending and Outcomes: Does Governance NMatter?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Rama, Martin "Downsizing and Productivity Gains in the Public and Private Sectors of Colombia." Policy Research the Tradeoffs and Policy Options." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Ravallion, Martin, and Shaohua Chen "Measuring Pro-Poor Growth." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Ravallion, Mlartin, and Dominique van de Walle "Breaking TJp the Collective Farm: Welfare Outcomes of Vietnam's NMas- Working Paper World Bank, Development Research sive Land Privatization." Policy Research Working Paper Group, WVashington, I).C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Globalization and Workers in Developing "Land Allocation in Vietnam's Agrarian Transition." Countries." Policy Research NVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington. D.C. Ranaweera, T'hilak "Foreign Aid, Conditionality, and Ghost of the Financing Gap: A Forgotten Aspect of the Aid Debate." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, WVashington, D.C. Ravallion, NMartin, Emanuela Galasso, Teodoro Lazo, and Ernesto Philipp "Do NVorkfare Participants Recover Quickly Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- from Retrenchment?" Policy Research NVorking Paper ment Data Group, Washington, D.C. Rao, Vijavendra, and Ana NMaria Ibafiez "The Social Impact of Social Funds in Jamaica: A NMixed-NMethods Analysis of Participation, Targeting, and Collective Action in Community- Driven Development." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Ratha. Dilip "Complementarity between Multilateral Lending and Private Flows to Developing Countries: Some Empirical Results." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Reimer, Jeffrey J "Estimating the Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, NVashington, D.C. Reinikka, Ritva, and Jakob Svensson "Explaining Leakage of Public Funds." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Survey Techniques to Nleasure and Explain Corruption." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Demand for WN7orld Bank Lending." Policy Research "Working for God? Evaluating Service Delivery of Working Paper World Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group, NVashington, D.C. Ravallion, Nlartin "Inequaliry Convergence." Policy Research Religious Not-for-Profit Health Care Providers in Ulganda." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. NVorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Robalino, David A., Carol Jenkins, and Karim El NMaroufi Group. Washington, D.C. "The Risks and Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in the "Nleasuring Aggregate Welfare in Developing Coun- Nliddle East and North Africa: Why Waiting to Intervene Can tries: How WVell Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?" Be Costly." Policy Research Working Paper NVorld Bank, Bank Research Output 1 89

194 Middle East and North Africa Region, Human Development Group, Washington, D.C. Rocha, Roberto, and Dimitri Vittas "Pension Reform in Hungary: A Preliminary Assessment." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development Ulnit, Washington, D.C. Rutkowski, Jan "Rapid Labor Reallocation with a Stagnant Unemployment Pool: The Puzzle of the Labor Market in Lithuania." Policy Research WorkingPaper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Human Development Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. IPaper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Sandler, 'l'odd "On Financing Global and International Public Goods." Policy Research WNorking Paper World Bank, Economic Policy and Prospects Group, Washington, D.C. Sarris, Alexander "'I'he D)emand for Commodity Insurance by Developing Country Agricultural Producers: Theory and an Application to Cocoa in Ghana." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank. Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Schady, Norbert R "Who Participates? 'I'he Supply of "Why Is Unemployment So High in Bulgaria?" Volunteer Labor and the D)istribution of Government Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe Programs in Rural Peru." Policy Research WVorkingPaper and Central Asia Region, Human Development Sector T Unit, World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Washington, D.C. Sector [Tnit, Washington, D.C. Saavedra, Luz A "Female Wage Inequality in Latin "'Fhe (Positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on American Labor Markets." Policy Research Working Papcr the Schooling and Employment D)ecisions of Children in a World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Middle-Income Country." Policy Research Working Paper Gender Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Sakakibara, Eisuke, and Sharon Yamakawva "Regional Integration in East Asia: Challenges and Opportunities-P'art WVorld Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Poverty Sector T nit, Washington, D.C. Schiff, Nlaurice "Regional Integration and Development in 1: History and Institutions." Policy Research Working Paper Small States." IPolicy Research Working Paper World World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Reduction and Economic Nlanagement Sector ttnit, "'Frade Policy and Labor Services: Final Status Washington, D.C. Options for the West Bank and Gaza." Policy Research "Regional Integration in East Asia: C,hallenges and Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Opportunities-Part Il: Trade, Finance, and Integration." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, East Asia Schiff, Nlaurice, and L. Alan Winters "Regional Cooperaand Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector UJnit, Washington, D.C. Sakellariou, Chris N., and Harry A. Patrinos "'Fechnology, Group, Washington, D.C. tion, and the Role of International Organizations and Regional Integration." Policy Research WNorking Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington. D.C. Computers, and Wages: Evidence from a IDeveloping Schiff. Maurice, Yanling Wang, and Marcelo Olarreaga Economy." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Education Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina "Unemployment, Skills, and Incentives: An Overviewv of the Safety Net System in the Slovak Republic." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector U nit, Washington, D.C. Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina, and Norbert R. Schady "Off and Running? Technology, Trade, and the Rising Demand for Skilled Workers in Latin America." Policy Rescarch Working "Irade-Related 'lechnology Diffusion and the Dynamics of North-South and South-South Integration." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Schmukler, Sergio L.. and Lois Serven "Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Scott, David "A Practical Guide to NManaging Systemic Financial Crises: A Review of Approaches'Faken in Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand." Policy Research Work- 190 Bank Research Output

195 ing Paper World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Financial Sector Group, Washington, D.C. Serven, Luis "Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. Seshadri, Shreelata Rao, P. Subramaniyam, and Prabhat Jha Smarzynska, Beata K "The Composition of Foreign Direct Investment and Protection of Intellectual Property Rights: Evidence from Transition Economies." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers through "The Potential Demand for and Strategic Use of an HIV-1 Backward Linkages." Policy Research Working Paper Vaccine in Southern India." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, I).C World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, Smarzynska, Beata K., and Shang-Jin Wei "Pollution Havens D.C. and Foreign Direct Investment: Dirty Secret or Popular Nlyth?" Shankar, Raja, and Anwar Shah "Bridging the Economic Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Divide within Nations: A Scorecard on the Performance of ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Regional Development Policies in Reducing Regional Income Solimano, Andres "International Nligration and the Global Disparities." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Economic Order: An Overview." Policy Research Working Operations Evaluation Department, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Shankar, Rashmi "Distinguishing between Observation- Washington, D.C. ally Equivalent Theories of Crises." Policy Research WVorking Songco, Jocelyn A "Do Rural Infrastructure Investments Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Benefit the Poor? Evaluating Linkages: A Global View, a Focus Region, Office of the Chief Economist, Washington, D.C. on Vietnam." Policy Research Working Paper World Shanks, Edwin, and Carrie Turk "Refining Policy with the Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Poor: Local Consultations on the Draft Comprehensive Poverty Economic Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Reduction and Growth Strategy in Vietnam." Policy Research Steer, Liesbet, and Markus Taussig "A Little Engine That Working Paper World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Could... Domestic Private Companies and Vietnam's Press- Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, ing Need for Wage Employment." Policy Research Working Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Poverty Shirley, Nlary NM., F F. Tusubira, Frew Amare Gebreab, and Luke Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Wash- Haggarty "Telecommunications Reform in Uganda." ington, D.C. Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- Stifel, David, and Harold Alderman "The 'Glass of Nlilk' ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Subsidy Program and Nlalnutrition in Peru." Policy Research Shrader, Elizabeth "NMethodologies to Measure the Gender Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Dimensions of Crime and Violence." Policy Research Working Group, Washington, D.C. Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Stover, John, Geoff P Garnett, Steve Seitz, and Steven Forsythe Region, Gender Unit, Washington, D.C. Skees, Jerry R., and Ayurzana Enkh-Amgalan "Examining the Feasibility of Livestock Insurance in Mongolia." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, East Asia and Pacific Region, Rural Development and Natural Resources Sector tunit, Washington, D.C. Skees, Jerry R., Panos Varangis, Donald F Larson, and Paul Siegel. "The Epidemiological Impact of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries." Policy Research Working Paper NVorld Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Swinkels, Rob, and Carrie Turk "Strategic Planning for Poverty Reduction in Vietnam: Progress and Challenges for NMeeting the Localized Millennium Development Goals." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, East Asia "Can Financial Markets Be Tapped to Help Poor and Pacific Region, Poverty Reduction and Economic People Cope with Weather Risks?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Management Sector Unit, Washington, D.C. Tan, Hong, and Gladys 1,6pez-Acevedo "Mexico: In-Firm Training for the Knowledge Economy." Policy Research Work- Bank Research Output 191

196 ing Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute; and Latin Standards." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, America and the Caribbean Region, Economic Policy Sector Devclopment Research Group, Washington, D.C. [Jnit, Washington, D.C. Vittas, Dimitri "Policies to Promote Saving for Retirement: Trivedi, Pravin K "Patterns of Health Care [7tilization in A Synthetic Overview." Policy Research Working Paper Vietnam: Analysis of Vietnam Living Standards Survey Data." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Trujillo, Lourdes, Noelia Martin, Antonio Estache, and Javier Campos "Macroeconomic Effects of Private Sector World Bank, Financial Sector Development Department, NVashington, D.C "The Insurance Industrv in Nlauritius." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Washington, D.C. Participation in Latin America's Infrastructure." Policy Research "The Role of Occupational Pension Funds in Working Paper World Bank, World Bank Institute; and Mauritius." Policy Research Norking Paper World Bank, Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Financial Sector Operations and Policy Department, Sector, and Infrastructure UJnit, Washington, D.C. WVashington, D.C. Uche, Chibuike U "'The Politics of Monetary Sector Wagstaff, Adam "Inequalities in Health in Developing Cooperation among the Economic Community of West African Countries: Swimming Against the Tide?" Policy Research States Members." Policy Research Working Paper World Working Paper WVorld Bank, Development Research Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Group and Human Development Network, Washington, D).C. Urquiola, Miguel "Identifying Class Size Effects in Devel "Inequality Aversion, Health Inequalities, and oping Countries: Evidence from Rural Schools in Bolivia." Health Achievement." P'olicy Research Working Paper Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- World Bank, Development Research Group and Human Develment Research Group, Washington, D.C. opment Network, Washington, D.C. van de Walle, Dominique "The Static and Dynamic Wagstaff, Adam, and Nga Nguyet Nguyen "Poverty and Incidence of Vietnam's Public Safety Net." Policy Research Survival Prospects of Vietnamese Children under Doi Moi." Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Policy Research Working Plaper World Bank, Develop- Group, Washington, D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. van de Walle, Dominique, and Dorothyjean Cratty "Is the Wagstaff, Adam, and Eddy van Doorslaer "Paying for Health Emerging Nonfarm Market Economy the Route Out of Poverty Care: Quantifying Fairness, Catastrophe, and Impoverishment, in Vietnam?" Policy Research Working Paper World with Applications to Vietnam, " Policy Research Work- Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. ing Paper WVorld Bank, Development Research Group, Varangis, Panos, Donald F. Larson, and Jock R. Anderson Washington, D.C. "Agricultural Markets and Risks: Management of the Latter, Wagstaff, Adam, Pierella Paci, and Heather Joshi "Causes Not the Former." Policy Research Working Paper World of Inequality in Health: Who lou Are? Where You Live? Or Who Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Your Parents Were?" Policy Research WVorking Paper Varangis, Panos, Paul Siegel, Daniele Giovannucci, and Bryan World Bank, Development Research Group and Human Devel- Lewin "Dealing with the Coffee Crisis in Central opment Network, Washington, D.C. America: Impacts and Strategies." Policy Research Working Wagstaff, Adam, Eddy van Doorslaer, and Naoko Watanabe Paper World Bank, Development Research Group. "On Decomposing the Causes of Health Sector Inequalities with Washington, D.C. an Application to Malnutrition Inequalities in Vietnam." Pol- Vegas, Emiliana "School Choice, Student Performance, and icy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Teacher and School Characteristics: 't'he Chilean Case." Research Group and Development Data Group. Washington, Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Wallsten, Scott "Ringing in the 20th Century: 'I'he Effects Vijverberg, Wim P. M., and Jonathan Haughton "Household of State Monopolies. Private Ownership, and Operating Licenses Enterprises in Vietnam: Survival, Growth, and Living on Telecommunications in Europe, " Policy Research 192 Bank Research Output

197 Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Watson, Robert, Michael Crawford, and Sara Farley "Strate- Group, NVashington, [).C. gic Approaches to Science and Technology in Development." "Does Sequencing Mlatter? Regulation and Priva- Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Human tization in 'I'elecommunications Reforms." Policy Research Development Network and Environmentally and Socially Working Paper NVorld Bank, Development Research Sustainable Development Vice Presidency, Washington, Group, WVashington, D.C. D.C "Regulation and Internet UTsc in Developing Coun- Wilson, John S "Liberalizing Trade in Agriculture: Develtries." Policy Research W7torking Paper World Bank, oping Countries in Asia and the Post-Doha Agenda." Policy Developmcnt Rescarch Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper World Bank, Development W;ang, Hua, and Wenhua Di "The Determinants of Gov- Research Group, Washington, D.C. ernment Environmental Performance: An Empirical Analysis Wilson, John S., and Tsunehiro Otsuki "Global Trade and of Chinese 'lownships." Policy Research WVorking Paper Food Safety: Winners and Losers in a Fragmented System." World Bank, D)evelopment Research Group, Washington, Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Develop- D.C. ment Research Group, Washington, D.C. Wang, Hua, and Yanhong Jin "Industrial Ownership and "To Spray or Not to Spray? Pesticides, Banana Environmental Performance: Eicidence from China." Policy Exports, and Food Safety." Policy Research Working Paper Research Working P'aper World Bank, Development World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Group, NVashington, D.C. Wilson, John S., Catherine L. NMann, and Tsunehiro Otsuki Wang, Hua, Nlandu Nlamingi. Benoit Laplante, and Susmita "Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: Nleasuring the Dasgupta "Incomplete Enforcement of Pollution Impact." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Regulation: Bargaining Power of Chinese Factories." Policy Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Research Working Paper WNorld Bank, Developnment Wilson, John S., Tsunehiro Otsuki, and Nlirvat Sewadeh Research Group. XVashington, D.C. Wang, Hua, Jun Bi, David Wheeler, Jinnan Wang, Dong Cao, Genfa Lu. and Yuan WN7ang "Environmental Performance Rating and Disclosure: China's Grecn-Watch Program." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Wang, Limin "Health Outcomes in Poor Countries and Policy Options: Empirical Findings from Demographic and Health Surveys." Policy Research Working Paper WVorld Bank, Environment Department, Washington, D.C. "Dirty Exports and Environmental Regulation: Do Standards NMatter to 'T'rade?" Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, D.C. Woolf, Fiona, and Jonathan Halpern "Integrating Independent Power Producers into Emerging Wholesale Power Markets." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Energy and Water D)epartment; and Latin America and the Caribbean Region, Finance, Private Sector, and Infrastructure [Init, Washington, D.C. Yang, Guifang, and Keith E. Nlaskus "Intellectual Property Wang, Yan, and YudongYao \l.:,.r,,r- Economic Down- Rights, Licensing, and Innovation." Policy Research Working side Risk and Severity." Policy Research Working Paper Paper World Bank, Development Research Group, Wash- NVorld Bank. World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. ington, D.C "Sources of China's Economic Growth, : Incorporating Htuman Capital AccUmulation." Policy Research WVorking Paper NVorld Bank, World Bank Institute, Washington, D.C. Watkins, Alfred "From Knowledge to Wealth: Transforming Russian Science and Technology for a Modern Knowledge Economy." Policy Research Working Paper World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region, Private and Financial Sectors Development Ulnit, Washington. L).C. Paper 8. G. Other Bank Working Papers Africa Region Human Development Working Papers Adeyi, Olusoji, Robert Hecht, Elesani Njobvu, and Agnes Soucat "AIDS, Poverty Reduction, and Debt Relief: A Toolkit for Mlainstreaming HIV/AIDS Programs into Development Instruments." Africa Region Human Development Working Bank Research Output 193

198 Ainsworth, Martha, Kathleen Beegle, and Godlike Koda Picazo, Oscar E "Better Health Outcomes from Limited "The Impact of Adult Mortality on Primary School Enroll- Resources: Focusing on Priority Services in Malawi." Africa ment in Northwestern Tanzania." Africa Region Human Devel- Region Human Development Working Paper 24. opment Working Paper 22. Soucat, Agnes, Abdo Yazbeck, Rudolf Knippenberg, Francois Andvig, Jens Christopher, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Anne Diop, Mark Wheeler, Shiyan Chao, and Sergin Luculescu. Kielland "Issues in Child Labor in Africa." Africa Region "Rapid Guidelines for Integrating Health, Nutrition, Human Development Working Paper 14. and Population Issues into the Poverty Reduction Strategies of Carceles, Gabriel, Birger Fredriksen, and Patrick Watt "Can Low-Income Countries." Africa Region Human Development Africa Reach the International Targets for Human Develop- Working Paper 16. (Available in French as Africa Region Human ment? An Assessment of Progress towards the Targets of the 1998 Development Working Paper 17.) Second Tokyo International Conference on African Develop- Subbarao, K "Systemic Shocks and Social Protection: Role ment." Africa Region Human Development Working Paper 11. and Effectiveness of Public Works Programs." Africa Region Chao, Shiyan, and Kees Kostermans "Improving Health for Human Development Working Paper 7. the Poor in Mozambique: The Fight Continues." Africa Region Subbarao, K., Angel Nlattimore, and Kathrin Plangemann Human Development Working Paper 20. "Social Protection of Africa's Orphans and Vulnerable Children: Hinchliffe, Keith "Public Expenditures on Education in Issues and Good Practice Program Options." Africa Region Nigeria: Issues, Estimates, and Implications." Africa Region Human Development Working Paper 9. Human Development Working Paper 29. Watt, Patrick "Community Support for Basic Education in Jaramillo, Adriana, and Karen Tietjen "Early Childhood Sub-Saharan Africa." Africa Region Human Development Development in Africa: Can We Do More for Less? A Look at Working Paper 10. the Impact and Implications of Preschools in Cape Verde and World Bank, Africa Region "Education and Training in Guinea." Africa Region Human Development Working Paper Madagascar: Towards a Policy Agenda for Economic Growth and 5. (Available in French as Africa Region Human Development Poverty Reduction-A Summary." Africa Region Human Devel- Working Paper 6.) opment Working Paper 12. (Available in French as Africa Liang, Xiaoyan "Uganda Post-Primary Education Sector Region Human Development Working Paper 13.) Report." Africa Region Human Development Working Paper "Le systeme educatif mauritanien: Elements Mingat, Alain "Deux etudes pour la scolarisation primaire d'analyse pour instruire des politiques nouvelles." Africa Region universelle dans les pays du Sahel en 2015." Africa Region Human Development Working Paper 15. Human Development Working Paper "Human Development in Africa: An Action Plan." Mingat, Alain, Ramahatra Rakotomalala, and Jee-Peng Tan Africa Region Human Development Working Paper 28. "Financing Education for All by 2015: Simulations for 33 (Available in French as Africa Region Human Development African Countries." Africa Region Human Development Work- Working Paper 32.) ing Paper 26. (Available in French as Africa Region Human "Secondary Education in Africa: Strategies for Development Working Paper 34.) Renewal." Africa Region Human Development Working Nlurphy, Paud, Steve Anzalone, Andrea Bosch, and Jeanne Moul- Paper 25. ton "Enhancing Learning Opportunities in Africa: Dis "Le systeme educatif Beninois: Performance et tance Education and Information and Communication espaces d'am6lioration pour la politique educative." Africa Technologies for Learning." Africa Region Human Develop- Region Human Development Working Paper 19. ment Working Paper 23. (Available in French as Africa Region "World Bank Support for Provision of Textbooks in Human Development Working Paper 31.) Sub-Saharan Africa ( )." Africa Region Human Devel- Oxenham,John,AbdoulHamidDiallo,AnneRuhwezaKatahoire,Anna opment Working Paper 27. (Available in French as Africa Petkova-Mwangi, and OumarSall "Skills and Literacy Train- Region Human Development Working Paper 33.) ing for Better Livelihoods: A Review of Approaches and Experi "Sanrt et pauvrete au Burkina Faso: Progresser vers ences." Africa Region Human Development Working Paper 21. les objectif internationaux dans le cadre de la strategie de lutte 194 Bank Research Output

199 contre la pauvrct6." Africa Region Human Development Foley, Gerald, Paul Kerkhof, and Djibrilla Madougou "A Working Paper 36. Review of the Rural Firewood Nlarket Strategy in West Africa." "Le systeme 6ducatif Togolais: Elements d'analyse Africa Region Working Paper 35. pour une revitalization." Africa Region Human Development Girishankar, Navin, Abebaw Alemayehu, and Yusuf Ahmad Working Paper 35. "lhandling Hierarchy in Decentralized Settings: Governance l nderpinnings of School Performance in Tikur Inchini, West Africa Region Working Papers Shewa Zone, Oromia Region." Africa Region Working Paper 21. Alawode, Abayomi A "Analyzing Financial and Private Sec- Golub, Stephcn, and Ahmadou Aly NMbaye "Obstacles and tor Linkages in Africa." Africa Region NVorking Paper 43. Opportunities for Senegal's International Competitiveness: "Evaltuating Banking Supervision in Africa." Africa (Case Studies of the Peanut Oil, Fishing, and Textile Industries." Region Working Paper 53. Africa Region Working Paper 37. Al-Samarrai, Samer, and Hassan Zaman "'I'he Changing Goreux, Louis, and John Macrae "Reforming the Cotton Sec- Distribution of Public Education ExpenditLrc in Malawi." tor in Sub-Saharan Africa." Africa Region Working Paper 47. Africa Region NWorking Paper 29. Heidenhof, Guenter, Helene Grandvoinnet, Daryoush Kianpour, Arndt, Channing "HIV/AIDS, Human Capital, and Economic and Bohak Rezaian "Design and Implementation of Growth Prospects for Mozambi(lue." Africa Region Working Financial Nlanagement Systems: An African Perspective." Paper 48. Africa Region WVorking Paper 25. Baffes, John "Tanzania's Cotton Sector: Constraints and Hinkle, Lawrence E., Alberto Herrou-Aragon, and Keiko Kubota. Challenges in a Global Environment." Africa Region WVorking "How Far Did Africa's First Generation Trade Reforms Paper 42. Go? An Intermediate Methodology for Comparative Analysis "Tanzania's Coffee Sector: Constraints and Challenges of Trade Policies." 2 vols. Africa Region Working Paper 58. in a Global Environment." Africa Region NWorking Paper 56. Jaffee, Steven NL.. Sr "Malawi's Tobacco Sector: Standing Bevan, David L "The Budget and Medium-Term Expendi- on One Strong Leg Is Better 'I'han on None." Africa Region ture Frameworks in ITganda." Africa Region WVorking Paper 24. Working Paper 55. Christiaensen, Luc, and Harold Alderman "Child Nialnu- Jaffee, Steven NI., Sr., Ron Kopicki, Patrick Labaste, and Ian T trition in Ethiopia: Can NMaternal Knowledge Augment the Christie "Nlodernizing Africa's Agro-Food Systems: Ana- Role of Income?" Africa Region Working Paper 22. lytical Framework and Implications for Operations." Africa Crompton, D. Elizabeth, and lain T. Christie "Senegal Region Working Paper 44. Tourism Sector Study." Africa Region Working Paper 46. Kirk, Robert. and NMatthew Stern "The New Southern Devarajan, Shantayanan, and Delfin S. Go "A Mlacroeco- Africa Customs tunion Agreement." Africa Region Working nomic Framework for Poverty Reduction Strategy Plapers: With Papcr 57. an Application to Zambia." Africa Region Working Paper 38. Le Houerou, Philippe, and Robert Taliercio "Medium-Term de Watteville, Nathalie "Addressing Gendcr Issues in Expenditure Frameworks: From Concept to Practice-Prelimi- Demobilization and Reintegration Programs." Africa Region nary Lessons from Africa." Africa Region Working Paper 28. Working Paper 33. Levy, Brian D "Patterns of Governance in Africa." Africa Dinh, Hinh '', Abebe Adugna, and Bernard NMyers "The Region Working Paper 36. Impact of Cash Budgets on Poverty Reduction in Zambia: A Lewis, Jeffrey D "Promoting Growth and Employment in Case Study of the Conflict between NVell-Intentioned Nlacro- South Africa." Africa Region Working Paper 32. economic Policy and Service Delivery to the Poor." Africa L,ewis, Jeffrey D., Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder. Region Working Paper "Free Trade Agreements and the SADC Economies." Fofack. Hippolyte, Chukwuuma Obidegwu, and Robert Ngong. Africa Region NVorking Paper "Public Expenditure Performance in Rwanda: Evidencc N'lanalo, NMarilyn S "Nficrofinance Institutions' Response in from a Public Expenditure Tracking Study in the Health and Education Sectors." Africa Region Working lpaper 45. Conflict Environments: Eritrea-Savings and Micro Credit Program, West Bank and Gaza-Palestine for Credit and Devel- Bank Research Output 195

200 opment, and Haiti-Micro Credit National, S. A." Africa Region Aidt, Toke, and Zafiris Tzannatos "The Costs and Working Paper 54. Benefits of Collective Bargaining: A Survey." Social Protection Mbaye, Ahmadou Aly "An Industry-Level Analysis of Discussion Paper 120. Manufacturing Productivity in Senegal." Africa Region Alderman, Harold "Subsidies as a Social Safety Net: Working Paper 41. Effectiveness and Challenges." Social Protection Discussion Michailof, Serge, Markus Kostner, and Xavier Devictor Paper 224. "Post-Conflict Recovery in Africa: An Agenda for the Africa Andvig, Jens Christopher "Family-Controlled Child Labor Region." Africa Region Working Paper 30. in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Research." Social Protec- Mistiaen, Johan A., Berk Ozler, Tiaray Razafimanantena, and Jean tion Discussion Paper 122. Razafindravonona "Putting Welfare on the NMap in Anusic, Zoran, Philip O'Kcefe, and Sanja Nladzarevic-Sujster. Madagascar." Africa Region Working Paper "Pension Reform in Croatia." Social Protection Ndegwa, Stephen N "Decentralization in Africa: A Stock- Discussion Paper 304. taking Survey." Africa Region Working Paper 40. Barrientos, Armando, and Stephanie Ware Barrientos Ng, Francis, and Alexander Yeats "What Can Africa Expect "Extending Social Protection to Informal Workers in the from Its Traditional Exports?" Africa Region Working Paper 26. Horticulture Global Value Chain." Social Protection Discussion Ouattara, Korotoumou "Microfinance Regulation in Benin: Paper 216. Implications of the PARMEC Law for Development and Betcherman, Gordon "An Overview of Labor Markets Performance of the Industry." Africa Region Working Paper 50. Worldwide: Key Trends and Major Policy Issues." Social Paternostro, Stefano, Jean Razafindravonona, and David Stifel. 20(01. Protection Discussion Paper 205. "Changes in Poverty in Madagascar: " Africa Region Betcherman, Gordon, Amy Luinstra, and Makoto Ogawa Working Paper 19. "Labor Market Regulation: International Experience in Pigato, Nliria A "Information and Communication Tech- Promoting Employment and Social Protection." Social nology, Poverty, and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa and Protection Discussion Paper 128. South Asia." Africa Region WVorking Paper 20. Bhalotra, Sonia "Is Child Work Necessary?" Social Protec- Randhawa, Bikki, and Joselito Gallardo "Mlicrofinance tion Discussion Paper 121. Regulation in Tanzania: Implications for Development and Bhalotra, Sonia, and Christopher Heady "Child Farm Labor: Performance of the Industry." Africa Region Working Paper 51. 'l'he Wealth Paradox." Social Protection Discussion Paper 125. Steel, William F, and David 0. Andah "Rural and Micro Bitran, Ricardo, and ITrsula (Giedion "Waivers and Exemp- Finance Regulation in Ghana: Implications for Development tions for Health Services in Developing Countries." Social and Performance of the Industry." Africa Region Working Protection Discussion Paper 308. Paper 49. Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Sangeeta Goyal. Verhey, Beth "Child Soldiers: Preventing, Demobilizing, and "Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Economic Policies on Reintegrating." Africa Region Working Paper 23. Child Labor and Schooling in Ghana." Social Protection Ye, Xiao, and Sudharshan Canagarajah. 2002, "Efficiency of Pub- Discussion Paper 212. lic Expenditure Distribution and Beyond: A Report on Ghana's Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Dhushyanth 2000 Public Expenditure Tracking Survey in the Sectors of Pri- Raju "The Informal Sector Revisited: A Synthesis across mary Health and Education." Africa Region Working Paper 31. Space and Time." Social Protection Discussion Paper 119. Zafar, Ali, and Keiko Kubota "Regional Integration in Cen- Blunch, Niels-Hugo, Amit Dar, Lorenzo Guarcello, Scott Lyon, tral Africa: Key Issues." Africa Region Working Paper 52. Amy Ritualo, and Furio Rosati "Child Work in Zambia: A Comparative Study of Survey Instruments." Social Protec- Human Development Network, Social Protection Discussion Papers tion Discussion Paper 228. Acufia, Rodrigo, and Augusto Iglesias "Chile's Pension Bodewig, Christian "Emerging from Ethnic Conflict: Chal- Reform after 20 Years." Social Protection Discussion Paper lenges for Social Protection Design in Transition Countries." 129. Social Protection Discussion Paper Bank Researth Output

201 Canagarajah, Sudharshan, and S. XI Sethuraman "Social lro- Fox, Louise, and Ragnar Gbjtestam "Redirecting Resources tection and the Informal Sector in Developing Countries: Chal- to Community-Based Services: A Concept Paper." Social lenges and Opportunities." Social Protection Discussion Paper 130. Protection Discussion Paper 311. Canagarajah, Sudharshan. Amit Dar, R. Nording, and Dhushyanth Gl, Robert 1., Andras Simonovits, and Geza Tarcali RajL "Effectiveness of Lending for Vocational Edluca- "Generational Accounting and Hungarian Pension Reform." tion and Training: Lessons from World Bank Experience." Social Protection Discussion Paper 127. Social Protection I)iscussion P'aper 222. Graham, Carol "Public Attitudes NMatter: A Conceptual Cigno, Alessandro. Furio Camillo Rosati, and Zafiris Tzannatos. Frame for Accounting for Political Economy in Safety Nets and "Child Labor, Nutrition, and EFducation in Rural India: Social Assistance Policies." Social Protection Discussion Paper An Economic Analysis of Parental Choice and Policy Options." 233. Social Protection Diiscussion lpapcr 131. Grimsrtd. Bjorne "Measuring and Analyzing Child Labor: "Child Labor Handbook." Social Protection Dis- Mlethodological Issues." Social Protection Discussion Paper cussion Paper Dar, Amit, Niels-Hugo Blunch. Bona Kim, and N\asaru Sasaki "What Can Be Done about Child Labor? An "Participation of Children in Schooling and Labor Activities: Overview of Recent Research and Its Implications for Design- A Review of Empirical Studies." Social Protection Discussion ing Programs to Reduce Child Labor." Social Protection Paper 221. Discussion Paper 124. Das, Nlaitreyi Bordia, and Sonalde Desai "Why Are Educated WNomen Less Likely to Be Employed in India? Gross, Alexandra, and Samantha de Silva "Social Fund Support of Microfinance: A Review of Implementation Testing Competing Hypotheses." Social Protection Discus- Experience." Social Protcction Discussion Paper 215. sion Paper 313. Deininger, Klaus. Anja Crommclvnck, and Gloria Kempaka Hcitzmann. Karin, Sudharshan Canagarajah, and Paul B. Siegel "Guidelines for Assessing the Sources of Risk and "Long-Term Welfare and Investment Impact of AIDS-Related Vulnerability." Social Protection Discussion Paper 218. Changes in Family Composition: Evidence from Uganda." Social Protection Discussion Paper 207. de Neubourg, Chris "Incentives and the Role of Institutions litinter, Susan S "Supporting and Expanding Community- Based HIV/AIDS Prcvention and Care Responses: A Report on the Save the Children (U.S.) MIalawi COPE Project." Social in Provision of Social Safctv Nets." Social P'rotection Discus- Protection Discussion Paper 211. sion Paper 226. Devesa-Carpio, Jose E., and Carlos Vidal-Nlelia "The Katsura, Harold NM., and Clare T Romanik "Ensuring Access tc) Essential Services: Demand-Side Housing Subsidies." Social Reformed Pension Systems in Latin America." Social Protection l)iscussion Paper 232. Protection Discussion Paper 209. Doyle, Suzanne, and John Piggort "MIandatory Annuity Design in Developing Economics." Social Protection D)iscus- Paper 220. sion Paper 208. Duclos, Jean-I'ves "Vulnerability and Poverty NMcasurcment Kaur, Iqbal. and Zafiris Tzannatos "I'he WVorld Bank and Children: A Review of Activities." Social Protection Discussion Kolev. Alexandre "Joblessness and Precarious Work in BLulgaria: Addressing the Miultiple Aspects of Vulnerability in Issues for Public Policyv" Social Protection Discussion Paper 230. the Labor Market." Social Protection Discussion Paper 303. Esguerra, Jude H., Mlakoto Ogawa, and Mlilan Vodopivcc Koichnast, Kathleen "Gender and Social Funds: Challenges "Options of Public Income Support for the t fnemploved in the and Opportunities." Social Protection Discussion Paper 309. Philippines." Social Protection Discussion Paper 204. Lasagabaster, Esperanza, Roberto Rocha, and Patrick Wiese. 20)02. Ezemenari, Kene, Nazmul Chaudhury, and Janet Owvens. 20(02. "Czech lpension System: Challenges and Reform Options." "Gender and Risk in the D)esign of Social Protection Inter- Social Protection Discussion Paper 217. ventions." Social Protection Discussion Paper 231. Leipold. Knut "Social Protection at Your Fingertips: Using Fox, Louise "Safety Nets in 'Iransition Economics: A Information and Communications Technologies in Social Primer." Social Protection Discussion Paper 306. Protection." Social Protection Discussion Paper 213. Bank Reseorch Output 197

202 Lcvine, Anthony, ed "Orphans and Other Vulnerable Tabor, Steven R "Assisting the Poor with Cash: Design Children: What Role for Social Protection?" Social Protection and Implementation of Social Transfer Programs." Social Discussion Paper 126. Protection Discussion Paper 223. MLcLeod, Dinah, and Maurizia Tovo "Social Services Deliv- Vodopivec, Milan, and Dhushyanth Raju "Income Support cry through Community-Based Projects." Social Protection Systems for the Unemployed: Issues and Options." Social D)iscussion Paper 118. Protection Discussion Paper 214. Nlorduch, Jonathan, and NManohar Sharma "Strengthening Vodopivec, Milan, Andreas Worgotter, and Dhushyanth Raju IPublic Safety Nets from the Bottom Up." Social Protection "Unemployment Benefit Systems in Central and Eastern Europe: I)iscussion Paper 227. A Review of the 1990s." Social Protection Discussion Paper 310. M\ltiongc, Joe "World Vision's Experience Working with Vroman, Wayne "UTnemployment Insurance and Unem- HIV/AIDS Orphans in Uganda " Social Protection ployment Assistance: A Comparison." Social Protection Dis- [Discussion Paper 210. cussion Paper 203. Palacios, Robert "Nlanaging Public Pension Reserves, Part Walker, Eduardo, and Fernando Lefort "Pension Reform and Il: Lessons from Five Recent OECD Initiatives." Social Capital Nlarkets: Are There Any (Hard) Links?" Social Pro- Protection Discussion Paper 219. tection Discussion Paper 201. P'ilotti, Francisco, and NMaria Claudia Camacho "Politicas y programas dc juventud en America Latina y El Caribe: Contexto y principales caracteristicas." Social Protection Discussion Paper 312. Ravallion. MNlartin "Targeted Transfers in Poor Countries: Social Development Department, (onflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit Working Papers NMcKechnie, Alastair "Humanitarian Assistance, Reconstruction, and Development in Afghanistan: A Practitioners' Revisiting the Tlradeoffs and Policy Options." Social Protection View." CPR Working Paper 3. Discussion Paper 314. Rohland, Klaus, and Sarah Cliffe "The East Timor Recon- Riboud. Nlichelle, Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, and Carlos Silva- struction Program: Successes, Problems, and Tradeoffs." CPR J.iuregui "Does Eurosclerosis Matter? Institutional Reform Working Paper 2. and Labor NMarket Performance in Central and Eastern European Sambanis, Nicholas "Ulsing Case Studies to Expand the The- Countrics in the 1990s." Social Protection Discussion Paper 202. ory of Civil War." CPR Working Paper 5. Rogcrs, Beatrice Lorge, and Jennifer Coates "Food-Based Schiavo-Campo, S "Financing and Aid Arrangements in Safctv Nets and Related Programs." Social Protection Post-Conflict Settings." CPR Working Paper 6. Discussion Papcr 225. Sommers, NMarc "Children, Education, and War: Reaching Rosati, Camillo, and Zafiris Tzannatos "Child Work: An Education for All (EFA) Objectives in Countries Affected by Expositorv Framework of Altruistic and Non-Altruistic Conflict." CPR Working Paper 1. Niodcls." Social Protection Discussion Paper 305. Roltber, P. C.., N. Catenaro, and G. Schwab "Ageing and H. Background Papers to World Development Pensions in the Euro Area: Survey and Projection Results." Reports 2003 and 2004 Social Protection Discussion Paper 307. Rutkowski, Jan J "Earnings Inequality in Transition Economies of Central Europe: Trends and Patterns during the 1990s." Social Plrotection Discussion Paper 117. Smith, \V. James, and Kalanidhi Subbarao "What Role for Safety Net Transfers in Very Low Income Countries?" Social Protection Discussion Paper 301. Sobbarao, Kalanidhi "Systemic Shocks and Social Protection: Role and Effectiveness of Public Works Programs." Social IProtection Discussion Paper 302. World Development Report 2003: Sustainable Development in a Dynamic Economy-Transforming Institutions, Growth, and Quality of Life Acharya, Gayatri. and John Dixon. "No One Said It Was Going to Be Easy: An Analysis of the Recommendations Made by the 1992 WlorldDevelopment Report and the Experience of the Last Decade." Bertaud, Alain. "The Spatial Organization of Cities: Deliberate Outcome or Unforeseen Consequence?" 198 Bank Research Output

203 Brekke, Kjell Arne, and Desmond McNeill. "Identity Signaling Centre for Economic Analysis. "The Provision of Social Services in Consumption: A Case for Provision of More Public Goods." and the Emerging Welfare State: A Norwegian Perspective." Das Gupta, Monica. "Population and Sustainable Development." Clark. Prema. "Education Reform in the Education Guarantee Gates, Scott, Nils Petter Gleditsch, and Eric Neumayer. Scheme in NMadhya Plradesh, India, and the Fundescola Program "Environmental Commitment, Democracy, and Inequality." in Brazil." Hannesson, Rognvaldur. "The Development of Economic Coady. David. "Alleviating Structural Poverty in Developing Institutions in World Fisheries." Countries: 'I'he Case of Progresa in Nlexico." Hoff, Karla. "Paths of Development and Institutional Barriers to Das Gupta. Mlonica, Peyvand Khaleghian, and Rakesh Sarwal. Economic Opportunities." "Governance of Communicable Disease Control Services." Holtedahl, Pernille, and Haakon Vennemo. "Environmental Diaz-Caveros, Alberto, and Beatriz NMagaloni. "'The Politics of Challenges in China: Determinants of Success and Failure." Public Spending, Part I-The Logic of Vote Buying." Janeba, Eckhard, and Guttorm Schjeldrup. "The Future of -. "The Politics of Public Spending, Part 11-The Programa Globalization: Tax Competition and Trade Liberalization." Nacional de Solidaridad (PRONASOL) in Mexico." Jayasuriya, Ruwan, and Quentin Wodon. "Explaining Country Erikson, Dan. Annie Lord, and Peter Wolf. "Introduction to Cuba's Efficiency in Improving Health and Education Indicators: The Social Services." Role of Urbanization." Ferrinho, Paulo, and Wim Van Lerberghe. "Civil Society Organi- Kuhnle, Stein, Sanjeev Prakash, Huck-ju Kwon, and Per Selle. zations and the Poor: The Unfulfilled Expectations." "Political Institutions, Democracy, and Welfare: A Comparative. I.i. r. Health Professionals in the Context of Study of Norway and Korea." Limited Resources: A Fine Line between Corruption and the Murshed, Mansoob S. "On Natural Resource Abundance and Need for Moonlighting." lunderdevelopment." Filmer, Deon. "Determinants of Health and Education Prakash, Sanjeev, and Per Selle. "Associations, Participation, and Outcomes." Government: Linking Local Communities and State Actors in. "The Incidence of Public Expenditures on Health and Sustainable Rural Development." Education." Pratt, Jane D., and John D. Schilling. "Sustainable Development Gauri. Varun. "Vouchers for Basic Education in Developing Counin Mountains: Managing Resources and Reducing Poverty." tries: A Principal-Agent Perspective." Sambanis, Nicholas. "Preventing Violent Civil Conflict: The Scope Halonen, NMaija. "Coordination Failure in Foreign Aid." and Limits of Government Action." Keefer, Philip, and Stuti Khemani. "The Political Economy of Steinberg, Paul. "Civic Environmentalism in Developing Coun- Public Expenditires." tries: Opportunities for Innovation in State-Society Relations." Khaleghian, Pevvand. "Decentralization and Public Services: The Tesli, Arne. "The Use of EIA and SEA Relative to the Objective Case of Immunization." of Sustainable Development." Knack, Stephen, and Aminur Rahman. "Donor Fragmentation Zainabi, Ahmed. "La Vallee du Dra: Development alternatif et and Bureaucratic Quality in Aid Recipients." action communautaire." Knippenberg. Rudolf, Fatoumata Traore Nafo, Raimi Osseni, Yero World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People Anderson, James, Daniel Kaufmann, and Francesca Recanatini. "Service Delivery, Poverty, and Corruption-Common Threads from Diagnostic Surveys." Andrews, Matthew, and J. Edgardo Campos. "The Management of Public Expenditures and Its Implications for Service Delivery." Bhalla, Surjit S., Suraj Saigal, and Nabhojit Basu. "Girls' Education Is It-Nothing Else Matters (Much)." Bove Camara, Abdelwahid El Abassi. and Agnes L. B. Soucat. "Increasing Clients' Power to Scale tjp Health Services for the Poor: The Bamako Initiative in West Africa." Leonard, Kenneth L., and Nlelkioru NMasatu. "Report on Basic Findings in Outpatient Facility Evaluations in Arusha Municipal- ity, Arumeru District, and Monduli District, Arusha Region, Tanzania." Liese, Bernhard, Nathan Blanchet, and Gilles Dussault. "The Human Resource Crisis in Health Services." Lisulo, Angela. "Costa Rica: Health Policies." Bank Research Output 199

204 Mackinnon, John. "How Does Aid Affect the Quality of Public Expenditure? What We Know and What We Do Not Know." Msuya, Joyce. "Horizontal and Vertical Delivery of Health Services: What Are the Tradeoffs?" Naimoli, Joseph E "Performance-Based Management in an Evolving Decentralized Public Health System in West Africa: The Case of Burkina Faso." Patrinos, Harry Anthony. "A Review of Demand-Side Financing Initiatives in Education." Roberts, John. "Managing Public Expenditure for Development Results and Poverty Reduction." Robinson, James A. "Politician-Proof Policy?" Saigal, Suraj. "Literature Review on Service Delivery in India." Shah, Shekhar. "Walk Before You Run: Governance and Public Sector Reforms in Poverty Reduction Strategies." Shah, Shekhar, and Manju Rani. "Worlds Apart: Why Are Kerala and Uttar Pradesh So Different in Their Human Development Outcomes?" Stasavage, David. "On the Role of Democracy in Uganda's Move to Universal Primary Education." van der Berg, Servaas, and Ronelle Burger. "The Stories behind the Numbers: An Investigation of Efforts to Deliver Services to the South African Poor." Vegas, Emiliana, and Joost De Laat. "Do Differences in Teacher Contracts Affect Student Performance? Evidence from Togo." 200 Bank Research Output

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