1400 hrs 14 June The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The Role of Governments and Public Service Notes for Discussion

Transcription

1 1400 hrs 14 June 2010 Slide I The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): The Role of Governments and Public Service Notes for Discussion I The Purpose of this Presentation is to review progress in the Achievement of MDGs and draw lessons on the role and the need to strengthen governments and public administration. II It draws on the experience as largely chronicled by the UN, with particular focus on Asia and on the discussions in CEPA meetings on ways forward. III Why the MDGs are important: Conventionally, economic progress was measured by the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Bu this was an economist s conception that measured, broadly speaking, what enters into the market economy or that that can be potentially traded. But the GDP measure is not a full index of economic and social progress: The GDP measure cannot always reflect economic and social progress. The adoption of MDGs in 2000 is a major landmark in that it shifted attention to a broader measure of human well-being. The MDGs represent a major contribution of the UN Amartya Sen, Mahbub ul Haq, Richard Jolly, among others contributing to it. It is important, therefore, that we measure our social institutions and policies by progress in achieving MDGs. Slide 3 Slide 2 1

2 IV. Where are we, then, in the progress in the achievement of the MDGs? At a global level: The broad conclusion is: Nations are moving towards achieving them, but too slowly. According to the UN Secretary General, the achievements are: o There is reduction in the proportion of people living below the poverty line, but the absolute number is still staggering. o Fewer people are dying today of AIDS. o Many countries are implementing strategies to combat malaria and measles two major killers of children. o The world is edging closer to universal primary education. o The world is on the way to meet the target for safe drinking water. But: o Higher food prices in the pre-crisis period impacted on poverty reduction. The recent decline in food prices did not translate into corresponding reduction in hunger because incomes fell by more than prices. o It was projected that that an estimated 55mn to 90mn more people would have been living in extreme poverty in 2009, than anticipated before the recent global economic crisis. o The meagre progress in child nutrition from 1990 to 2007 makes it difficult to meet the MDG target. The recent economic turmoil and higher food prices will make it unlikely that this target will be achieved. o The economic crisis can also hold back progress towards gender equality, with employment of women coming under threat. o the Crisis had pushed many into vulnerable employment o though employed, many do not earn enough for themselves and their families to rise above the poverty line of $1.25 a day. Slide 4 2

3 V What is the experience of Asia? The region as a whole is an early achiever for: (a) Reduction in gender disparities in primary and tertiary education (b) Stopping the spread of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis (c) Ensuring a proportion of protected area to maintain biodiversity (d) Reducing consumption of ozone depleting substances (e) Halving the proportion of people without access to safedrinking water The region is on track to achieve three other important targets: (a) Gender parity in secondary education (b) Ensuring universal access of children to primary school (c) Halving the proportion of people living below the $1.25-aday poverty line. Slide 5 VI But the Regional Aggregates mask considerable variations between subregions and country groupings. Among the sub-regions: - The greatest advances have been in South East Asia, with North and Central Asian countries, and South Asia also making progress but lagging behind South East Asia. - The triple transition- from command to market economy, from totalitarianism to democracy, from being part of Soviet Union to being sovereign states posed many challenges to North-Central Asian countries. - As a group, the Pacific Island countries have been less successful. - The region s 14 Least Developed countries have made slow or made no progress on most of the indicators, performing well only on gender equality in primary and secondary education and in reducing the prevalence of HIV and TB. 3

4 Source: Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in an Era of Global Uncertainty, Asia Pacific Regional report , UN-ESCAP/ADB/UNDP, Bangkok, Feb

5 - The inter-country variations are illustrated in the variations in infant mortality rate (IMR) across countries in Asia. For example, in 2007, the IMR for the following countries was: o 73 in Pakistan o 54 in India o 19 in China o 4 in Republic of Korea - And country averages mask important disparities within countries: o Intra-country disparities are a cause for concern in Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, among others. There are significant rural-urban, and interregional disparities in performance within each country. For example, infant mortality in Orissa in Eastern India is.times that in Kerala. o Inter-regional inequalities in consumption within a country have increased in most countries. There is a high level of geographical concentration of poverty. Slide 6 VI I What are the Factors inhibiting the achievement of the MDGs in Asia? o The recent Global Economic Crisis since 2008 onwards is setting back the progress made in the achievement of the MDGs: o The recent global economic crisis could trap an additional 17 million people in Asia on incomes of less than $1.25 a day, and another 4 million in o Among the Asia-Pacific countries, the Pacific countries, which are highly dependent on trade, are the most exposed, and generally have lower coping society. o The loss of income by women and its adverse impact on health and education. o The vulnerability of girl-child to being withdrawn from schools. 5

6 o The fall in household incomes could further increase the number of infant and child deaths, with disproportionate effect on women and children. o Apart from the direct impact of the economic crisis, the crisis can affect the achievement of MDGs through: Reduced budget allocations for MDG related goals at national and international levels e.g. maternal health, environment. Fewer trade opportunities for the majority of developing countries. Possible reductions in aid flows. Side 7 VIII Following the economic crisis, many countries adopted fiscal stimulus packages. Did they help with MDG targets? In a large part of Asia-Pacific, the greatest contribution of the fiscal stimulus has been for poverty reduction, followed by health and education. But the contribution of the stimulus packages to MDGs could have been greater through better emphasis on social protection. Expenditure on social protection in most Asia-Pacific countries tends to be small relative to GDP. IX Slide 8 What should be done? The experience of Asia and other regions suggests that: Growth is important, though not sufficient in itself, to achieve reduction in poverty levels. Empirical evidence suggests that a one percent point growth in GDP can lead to more than one per cent point reduction in the incidence of poverty. But: o The relationship between growth and poverty reduction, however, is stronger if growth is inclusive - e.g. strategies that are employment generating, pro-women, less geographically concentrated, pro-rural, pro-health-promoting and environment- 6

7 friendly (e.g less demanding of water and clearance of forests, nonpolluting, non-destructive of bio-diversity, etc). o Progress in child and infant mortality is not strictly correlated to progress in the reduction in income poverty. There are significant gender disparities in malnutrition and infant and child mortality. Special efforts are needed to reduce child and infant mortality, taking into account the gender disparities. Expenditure on health should not be seen as a matter to be left to private choice. o Control of infectious diseases such as malaria, TB, leprosy, etc requires collective action, and reduction in their incidence should be treated as expenditure on public goods. So is the spread of literacy, as it carries externalities. Such actions also benefit the poor more proportionately and hence equity promoting. o Insurance at subsidized rates for the poor can have a beneficial effect (e.g. Arogya Sree - i.e. Public funded Insurance for Better Health for the poor- in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India) o Improved expenditure on health, education and sanitation with focus on women and girl child has a positive impact on overall growth rate through reduced infant mortality and the related decline in fertility rates, release of women for income generating employment and enhanced productivity. Expenditure on education and health should be seen as investments for a better future. Fostering connectivity (roads, rail networks, telecommunications) help to reduce poverty. o Improved access to health and educational services o New opportunities for income generation Improved market access. To reduce hunger, it is important to: o provide guarantees for minimum number of days of employment in a year for men and women as a statutory right of citizens (e.g the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of India that provides for 100 days of employment on demand for every rural citizen). 7

8 X o make arrangements for special access to food for the poor, including the deprived mothers, the aged, the disabled and the small children. (e.g supply of essential items of food at subsidized prices, e.g. India). New modes of delivery of services should be considered where scope exists for more effective delivery including through PPPs (e.g. Cambodia, where NGOs are contracted to help deliver health services) Empowerment of the local communities is a critical pre-requisite for the achievement of the MDGs: o Decentralisation o Community management of public services o Better local governance Increase investment in MDG related goals together with institutional changes. Innovative service delivery mechanisms in relation to non-income poverty related indicators like health (e.g. malaria, HIV/AIDS, TB) and environment, as economic growth alone would not ensure progress in those areas. Slide 9 What are the five conclusions/action points that one can draw from the experience of Asia vis a vis MDG goals? o Make economic growth inclusive in character to achieve maximum impact on MDGs. o Achievement of MDGs is not in conflict with the growth objective: it can in fact reinforce the growth process (e.g. decline in infant mortality leading to reduced fertility, lower population growth, higher per capita income and savings). o By promoting equitable growth, achievement of MDGs help to reduce conflict and promote peace. o The achievement of MDGs cannot be left to the play of market forces. The Washington Consensus on economic policy needs to be replaced by a new consensus that aims to reposition governments and public 8

9 administration to play a stronger role in economic and social transformation. International policies will need to be tuned to: (a) removal of restrictions on the export of agricultural and other goods and services from the developing countries; (b) address issues of conflict that have cross-border roots; (c)put in place stronger systems to deal with financial crises, hunger, access to medicines at affordable costs, promote the transfer of innovations and good practices that strengthen public administration and reposition governments; and (d) address the vulnerability of small and island states. S.K. Rao Administrative Staff College of India Hyderabad, India 14 June