Multidimensional Poverty Measurement: Informing Policy Around the World

Transcription

1 Multidimensional Poverty Measurement: Informing Policy Around the World Sabina Alkire, September 2014 ESRC-DFID Joint Fund for Poverty Alleviation Research Grantholder Conference: Research Uptake and Impact

2 Outline 1. Content At-a-Glance 2. Infrastructure a. Academic b. Communications c. Policy d. Relational, Opportunistic e. Ethos (language, rejection, chocolate)

3 MEASURING MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY (Content)

4 Motivation: Action with vigour positive changes have often occurred and yielded some liberation when the remedying of ailments has been sought actively and pursued with vigour Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen India: An Uncertain Glory 2013

5 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index UNDP Human Development Report 2014 & Alkire Conconi and Seth 2014 Develop a deprivation profile for each person, using a set of indicators, cutoffs and weights. Example:.

6 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index UNDP Human Development Report 2014 & Alkire Conconi and Seth 2014 Identify someone as poor if he or she is deprived in 33% (for example) or more of the weighted indicators. National : you choose indicators/weights /cutoffs Deprivation Score 33%

7 Aggregation: Alkire & Foster - Appropriate for Ordinal data - The MPI is the product of two components: MPI = H A 1) Incidence ~ the percentage of people who are poor, or the headcount ratio H. 2) Intensity of people s deprivation ~ the average percentage of dimensions in which poor people are deprived A.

8 Policy Interest Why? 1. Intuitive easy to understand headline 2. Birds-eye view - can be unpacked a. by region, ethnicity, rural/urban, etc b. by indicator, to show composition c. by intensity to show inequality among poor 3. Adds Value: a. focuses on people with multiple deprivations b. shows people s simultaneous deprivations. 4. Incentives to reach the poorest of the poor 5. Flexible you choose indicators/cutoffs/values 6. Robust to wide range of weights and cutoffs 7. Academically Rigorous axiomatic & empirical

9 Average Intensity of Poverty (A) 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% What MPI shows National level How MPI decreased in Nepal Nepal 2006 Nepal % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Incidence - Percentage of MPI Poor People (H)

10 Decomposition By Region (or social group) shows inequalities

11 How did MPI go down? Monitor each indicator 64

12 Annualized Absolute Change in proportion who is poor and deprived in... Indicator Changes by region (Nepal) Nutrition Child Mortality Years of Schooling Attendance Cooking Fuel Sanitation Water Electricity Floor Assets

13 MPI: Two kinds ~ both useful Internationally comparable: Example: The Global MPI estimated and analysed by OPHI and published by UNDP s HDRO can be compared across 108 countries. Facilitates lessons learned across countries. - Like $1.25/day and $2/day poverty measures & MDGs

14 MPI: Two kinds ~ both useful Context-Specific: Example: National MPIs reflect national contexts and priorities. They guide policies like targeting and allocation and monitor changes - Vital for policy. Not comparable: tailor-made to context.

15 INFRASTRUCTURE Academic

16 Aggregation: Alkire & Foster - Appropriate for Ordinal data - The MPI is the product of two components: MPI = H A 1) Incidence ~ the percentage of people who are poor, or the headcount ratio H. 2) Intensity of people s deprivation ~ the average percentage of dimensions in which poor people are deprived A.

17 Properties: AF Family of measures Adjusted FGT is M a = m(g a (t)) for a > 0 Domains g a a 0 1 a (k) Persons 0.04 a 0.17 a 0.67 a 1 a Theorem 1 For any given weighting vector and cutoffs, the methodology M ka =(ρ k,m a ) satisfies: decomposability, replication invariance, symmetry, poverty and deprivation focus, weak and dimensional monotonicity, nontriviality, normalisation, and weak rearrangement for a>0; monotonicity for a>0; and weak transfer for a>1. Alkire Foster JPubE 2011

18 Methodology Publications Alkire, S. and Foster, J. (2007). Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement. OPHI Working Paper 7. Presented at: Royal Economic Society, American Economic Association (AEA), International Economic Association, Econometric Society, LACEA, Social Choice and Welfare, IARIW, EADI, ECINEQ, HDCA, Development Studies Association, the World Bank, UNICEF, UNDP, IADB, Asian Development Bank, and other Universities. Alkire, S. and Foster, J. (2011). Understandings and Misunderstandings of Multidimensional Poverty Measurement. Journal of Economic Inequality, 9: Controversial: Generated 6 academic responses, including ours to a leading critic Alkire, S. and Foster, J. (2011). Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement. Journal of Public Economics, 95(7 8): Acceptable 71

19 Incidence and Intensity by Country

20 . tab water hh_d_water [aw=weight], miss RECODE of water (Drinking Water) Drinking Water 0 1 Total piped into dwelling piped to yard/plot public tap/standpipe 1, , tube well or borehole 1, , dug well/protected we dug well/unprotected protected spring unprotected spring rainwater tanker truck cart with small tank surface water (river/ bottled water other Total 4, , ,119

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22 Empirical Publications Alkire, S. and Santos, M. E. (2013). A Multidimensional Approach: Poverty Measurement & Beyond. Social Indicators Research, 112(2): Empirical Play space for experimentation junior researchers Alkire, S. and Santos, M. E. (2010). Acute Multidimensional Poverty: A New Index for Developing Countries. OPHI Working Paper 38, also published as Human Development Research Paper 2010/11. Alkire, S. and Santos, M. E. (2014). Measuring Acute Poverty in the Developing World: Robustness and Scope of the Multidimensional Poverty Index. World Development, 59:

23 Next: Alkire, S., J. Foster, S. Seth, M.E. Santos, J. Roche, P. Ballon Multidimensional Poverty: Measurement and Analysis, OUP, 2015 (after that we need a readable Handbook for policy) 76

24 INFRASTRUCTURE Communications

25 People and Stories

26 Policy Briefings

27 Infographics

28 Interactive DataBank with Maps

29 Data Tables

30 Academic Paper Drafts for Comment

31 UN General Assembly Side Event Sept 2013: Press release Over 20 governments pressure UN to change how it measures poverty Germany, Colombia and Mexico lead calls for a new poverty measure at side-event at the UN General Assembly on the Post-2015 Development Agenda A global network of more than 20 governments and institutions are using a side-event at the UN General Assembly on 24 September to argue for a new multidimensional poverty index to stand alongside an income poverty measure. Why? Focussing on ending income poverty alone in the post-2015 development context overlooks policies that address other aspects of being poor, such as a lack of access to healthcare, quality schooling, housing, electricity and sanitation. Research by the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at Oxford University, among others, shows startling discrepancies between income poverty and multidimensional poverty, which takes into account other factors. The Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network which was founded by Colombia, Mexico and OPHI will use the side-event to make a case for the UN to include a multidimensional poverty index, or MPI, alongside the $1.25/day measure, to track progress towards nationally defined goals. The MPI would build on the global MPI published in the UN Development Programme s flagship Human Development Reports, and would incorporate the most accurate

32 Slide title

33 Finding factoids Start from an idea or a controversy: MDGs wrongly count countries not people. Growth => higher GDP per capita but may not decrease multidimensional poverty. Or a question: There are more $1.25/day poor in MICS. Is it true for MPI poverty?

34 Play with your data. Finding factoids Become very Curious about your results Find comparisons that are striking or unexpected Make sure factoids are 100% accurate and academically defensible.

35 88 Pakistan vs Niger

36 89 Pakistan vs Niger

37 90 Pakistan the Bad News.

38 Design Metaphors Fact: They are less passionate about measurement. Fact: They are less worried by details Fact: A catching image is remembered & repeated. The MPI is like a High Resolution Lens

39 The MPI is like a high resolution lens

40 The MPI is like a high resolution lens You can zoom in

41 The MPI is like a high resolution lens You can zoom in and see more

42 INFRASTRUCTURE Policy

43 MPI in Action Official National MPIs Colombia Mexico Bhutan Philippines Other policy applications underway: China, Brazil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Chile, & others.

44 Colombia s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Education Childhood & youth conditions Labor Health Public utilities & housing conditions

45 Colombia 2011, 2013: MPI-Colombia Educational Conditions Childhood & Youth Work Health Housing & Public Services Schooling Illiteracy 0.1 Used to allocate resources in national development plan School Attendance At the right level Access to infant services No Child Labour Absence of long-term unemployment Formal work Coverage Access to health care given a necessity Improved Water Sanitation Flooring Exterior Walls Overcrowdin g

46 Pobreza monetaria We are on are the right track Sustained poverty reduction , Pobreza Multidimensioal I P M 0 Pobreza extrema monetaria , Fuente: DNP SPSCV 4 0

47 From 2010 to 2012, 1.3 million persons overcame multidimensional poverty

48 To what do we owe these good results?

49 NDP Alerts: -Habitability -School achievement -Early childhood care -Income generation

50 NDP Policies: Free tuition fees in primary and secondary education National strategy for childhood care De cero a Siempre Alerts: -Habitability -School achievement -Early childhood care -Income generation

51 NDP Alerts: -Habitability -Lower rhythm of multidimensional poverty reduction

52 NDP policies: 100,000 free housing solutions for poor households Alerts: -Habitability -Lower rhythm of multidimensional poverty reduction -Low budget execution?

53 NDP Alerts: -Lower rhythm of income poverty reduction - Gaps of rural to urban income poverty maintained

54 NDP policies Improved CCT program Más Familias en Acción (Higher amount and beneficiaries on rural areas) Food Security Programa: Colombia Growyh Without Hunger Alerts: -Lower rhythm of income poverty reduction - Gaps of rural to urban income poverty maintained

55 NDP Alerts: -Social mobility -Youth unemployment

56 NDP policies CCT to increase human capital and youth employment Jóvenes en Acción Alerts: -Social mobility -Youth unemployment

57 - 4 key aspects: 1. Reflects the objectives of social policy 2. Coordinates public policy sectors 3. Monitors public policy 4. Informs Decision making: 1. Geographic targeting 2. Programme composition 3. Graduation from CCTs

58 High Official Commission Monitoring the national strategy for the reduction of poverty using official poverty measures Leaders Presidency (Mandatory presence of the President of Colombia) Department for Social Prosperity National Planning Department Permanent members Ministry of Health Ministry of Labour Ministry of Housing Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Education Ministry of Finance 112

59 Sectoral goals For accomplishing the strategy 0%-10% avance 10%-25% avance >25% avance Pobreza Línea Base PND 2008 Dato 2011 Dato 2012 Análisis Goal MPI (Multidimensional Poverty) 34.7% 29.4% 27.0% 22.5% A (1) B (2) C (3) D (4) E (5) Educational achievement ( 15 yrs) Literacy ( 15 yrs) School attendance (6-16) No school lag (7-17) Access to child care services (0-5) Children not working (12-17) Long-term unemployment Formal employment Health insurance Access to health services Access to water source Adequate sewage system Adequate floors Adequate external walls No critical overcrowding *** Change est. significant 58.8% 54.6% 53.1% 52.8% 14.2% 12.0% 12.1% 12.0% 5.4% 4.8% 4.1% 3.5% 33.4% 34.1% 33.3% 33.1% 12.1% 10.8% 9.4% 10.6% 5.5% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 9.6% 9.1% 10.0% 9.3% 80.6% 80.4% 80.0% 74.7% 24.2% 19.0% 17.9% 0.5% 8.9% 8.2% 6.6% 2.4% 12.9% 12.0% 12.3% 10.9% 14.1% 14.5% 12.1% 11.3% 7.5% 6.3% 5.9% 5.6% 3.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.1% 15.7% 14.2% 13.1% 8.4% *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** FUENTE: DANE

60 The Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network Launched in June 2013 at University of Oxford with: President Santos of Colombia Ministers from 16 countries in person A lecture from Professor Amartya Sen Supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

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62 16 countries of the Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network (MPPN) at launch in 2013 Angola, Bhutan, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, ECLAC, Ecuador, El Salvador, Dominican Republic, Germany, India, Iraq, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, Nigeria, OECD, the Organization of Caribbean States, OPHI, Peru, Philippines, SADC, and Vietnam Supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

63 MPPN has 30 countries plus international agencies at July 2014 meeting Supported by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

64 Colombia, Mexico, Germany, OPHI and the MPPN host a side event at the UN General Assembly 2013 Next Side Event: 25 Sept 2014, 1:15-2:30

65 Other Intersections: CEPAL: Constructing new LAC-MPI for the region SADC: use MPI as a standard indicator to compare SADC members MEDSTAT: Use MPI to compare North African countries UNDP LAC: Forthcoming regional report on poverty will present MPIs from MPPN member countries.

66 Islamic Solidarity Fund for Development: The Fund views poverty as a multi-dimensional phenomenon, encompassing not only low income and consumption, but also low achievement in fundamental human rights including education, nutrition, primary health, water and sanitation, housing, crisis coping capacity, insecurity, and all other forms of human development. MPPN had a side-event at the Islamic Development Bank: June 2014

67 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Move from poverty to inclusive well-being Create a new headline indicator to measure progress towards eradicating all forms of poverty, which could complement the current income-poverty indicator (Chapters 3 and 5). Executive Summary, Development Cooperation Report 2013: Ending Poverty

68 Open Working Group Final Draft Document on SDGs: 19 July 2014 Sustainable Development Goals and targets Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 1.1 by 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day 1.2 by 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions.

69 INFRASTRUCTURE Relational, Opportunistic

70 Open Working Group Final Draft Document on SDGs: 19 July 2014 Sustainable Development Goals and targets Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 1.1 by 2030, eradicate extreme poverty for all people everywhere, currently measured as people living on less than $1.25 a day 1.2 by 2030, reduce at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions.

71 INFRASTRUCTURE Ethos rejection~languages~chocolate

72 Global team: OPHI at a glance 4-5 post-docs + director + policy director (not all FT) 4 core staff (coordinator, comms, policy, project assistant) Many part-time colleagues from & in many countries (India, Colombia, Mexico, Pakistan, US, S Africa, Argentina, Morocco.) Advisors: Sudhir Anand Tony Atkinson Amartya Sen Frances Stewart Purpose: To build a multidimensional economic framework for reducing poverty grounded in people s experiences and values.

73 INFRASTRUCTURE Ethos rejection~languages~chocolate

74 The OPHI team

75 MPI 2015+: Which Indicators? (globally/nationally) & how? First MPI indicators Published: in Human Development Reports of UNDP