National Opinion Poll: October for Publication on 2 nd November 2014

Transcription

1 1. National Opinion Poll: October 20 - for Publication on 2 nd November 20

2 Introduction A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday Independent to be published on Sunday 2 nd November 20. The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with Government and party leaders, the long term prospects of the Government, reaction to water charges and the budget. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 18+ population profile. 991 Interviews were conducted at 66 sampling points nationwide. Interviews were carried out between 21 st 31 st October 20. Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/

3 Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-toface basis in the home at 66 sampling points throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1 POLL The 991 interviews on the poll were carried out between 21 st 31 st October 20. The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent. Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent

4 4. The Results

5 Dissatisfaction with parties shows electorate has lost its trust This latest Millward Brown Opinion Poll, conducted over ten days up until last Friday, reflects an instability in Irish Politics more recently, but also a public that is disillusioned with how our affairs are conducted. First off, let s look at the context. In essence, there has only been two shows in town in town more recently The ongoing controversy of the impending Water Charges and the fallout from the Mairia Cahill allegations. Even prior to these though, we had the John McNulty affair. It is against this backdrop that we see some oscillations in the public s evaluation of the body politic. It is interesting to note that the levels of Undecideds recorded (24pc) is at its lowest level in the series of tracking polls. It would seem that we are becoming less apathetic to the goings-on in Kildare Street but how that enthusiasm manifests itself however is just as illuminating. The Government parties must be scratching their heads in wonderment. When you have Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German Finance Minister expressing his envy of our economic momentum, one would expect that satisfaction with the administration in general, and the Government parties in particular, would be heading northwards on the graph. Anything but. At a time when they should be basking in the afterglow of continuing good news on the economic front, they have managed to score some spectacular own goals. The ongoing issue of Water charges especially has focussed the minds of many. Dissatisfaction with the Government (73pc) is at a year-long high reversing any gains made over the past 12 months. Just one in five (21pc) are happy. This has been compounded by the accusations of cronyism in light of the McNulty affair (although we also found in this poll that the public s view on ethic in politics are actually quite mixed). 5.

6 Dissatisfaction with parties shows electorate has lost its trust (Cont d) Support for both parties has slipped albeit marginally. Fine Gael have shed three points to 22pc, whilst Labour have slipped back to seven percent (down two). Given that this should be a happy time for both parties, these result will be deeply disappointing. Any positive impact from them delivering a first neutral budget in six years, has been eroded by the palpable anger (and trepidation) being generated by the Water debate. In terms of communications, they have been outflanked at nearly every turn on this issue (some of this as a direct result of their own actions, but the anger has been greatly magnified by the PR debacle afflicting Irish Water). When you are having to continually explain your actions, then you are losing your argument. Fianna Fail, not for the first time, have failed to capitalise on the Government s travails. They have remained stubbornly anchored to the twenty percent mark for most of this year. The main beneficiary has been Sinn Fein. Given the constant barrage by Fine Gael in particular over the Mairia Cahill affair, they will breathe a sigh of relief. Their current standing, at 26pc, is their highest rating so far in this series of polls. Their Teflon-esque ability to deflect attention from the past is as strong as ever. Their communications machine is well oiled, and their accusation that the Cahill affair was being used for political point scoring seems to have resonated with some. Of course, there is an argument that has been made that the support for Sinn Fein has a soft underbelly. They have capitalised on, and articulated, the public s fear on water charges (although even they were outflanked by Paul Murphy s victory in Dublin SW). The singularity of a message of opposition may gain them some kudos in the short term, but as a long term strategy is this really feasible? Look no further than Stormont. 6.

7 Dissatisfaction with parties shows electorate has lost its trust (Cont d) 7. Looking at the performance of party leaders, there is an undercurrent of frustration coming through. Dissatisfaction with all of them has increased sharply, reflecting that disillusionment that many are feeling. All party leaders have a dissatisfaction rating of over 50pc hardly a compelling endorsement. Enda Kenny has suffered most; two in three of the population are unhappy with his performance (up nine points). Unhappiness with Joan Burton has increased by eight points, Micheal Martin by six points and Gerry Adams by eight points. Whilst none of the party leaders have covered themselves in glory, it is interesting to note that whilst Sinn Fein as a party has gained four points in this poll (a historical high, and the first time they have nudged ahead of the field in these polls), dissatisfaction with their leader has increased notably. On the basis of these results, it would seem that opinions on the party and its leader are going in opposite directions. Whether this is a function of there being a current sense of a plague on all the (leader s) houses, or something more fundamental is open to interpretation. Regardless of the ebbs and flows of public opinion towards the main players, it seems there is something more deeply flawed within the current structure. Less than three in ten (29pc) have trust in the current party political system, and less than one in ten (9pc) having a lot of trust. Contrast this with 65pc expressing reservations about the current status quo nearly half of us (45pc) have no trust at all. As you would expect, supporters of the Government parties have most faith (68pc of FG supporters, but interestingly just 41pc of Labour supporters). More affluent ABs (the professional classes) also have more belief in the system. Those most critical are SF and Independent supporters, along with those from a lower socio economic background. Whether this is a knee-jerk reaction to more recent events, or a more fundamental issue with party political ideology is debatable. In the short term at least, one thing is clear - the public is losing patience.

8 8. National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trend Questions

9 Party Support First Preference Including Don t Knows General Election Result Feb 2011 Opinion Poll 21 st 31 st October Including Don t Knows Opinion Poll 21 st 31 st October Excluding Don t Knows Fine Gael 36 Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Labour 19 Independents/Others Fianna Fáil The Green Party Independents/others Sinn Féin Sinn Féin Green Party Don t know Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

10 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference Feb 6 th 13 th 2013 Feb 16 th 28 th 2013 Mar 4 th th 2013 Mar 30 th Apr 10 th 2013 May 5 th -16 th 2013 May 17 th 28 th 2013 June 20 th 28 th 2013 Aug 3 rd -12 th 2013 Aug 17 th -27 th 2013 Sep 13 th 25 th 2013 Sep 30 th - Oct 9 th Nov 3 rd -13 th Jan 15 th -24 th 20 Feb 19 th -28 th 20 Apr 5 th -15 th 20 Jul 18 th 30 th 20 Sep 9 th -18 th 20 Oct 21 st 31 st 20 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Labour Green Party United Left Alliance* Independents/others * * * Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

11 June 20th 28th Aug 3rd 12th Aug 17th 27th Sept 13th 25th Sept 30th Oct 9th Nov 3rd 13th Jan 15th 24th 19th - 28th Feb 20 5th 15th April 20 18th 30th July 20 9th 18th Sept 20 21st 31st Oct 20 June 20th 28th Aug 3rd 12th Aug 17th 27th Sept 13th 25th Sept 30th Oct 9th Nov 3rd 13th Jan 15th 24th 19th - 28th Feb 20 5th 15th April 20 18th 30th July 20 9th 18th Sept 20 21st 31st Oct 20 June 20th 28th Aug 3rd 12th Aug 17th 27th Sept 13th 25th Sept 30th Oct 9th Nov 3rd 13th Jan 15th 24th 19th - 28th Feb 20 5th 15th April 20 18th 30th July 20 9th 18th Sept 20 21st 31st Oct 20 June 20th 28th Aug 3rd 12th Aug 17th 27th Sept 13th 25th Sept 30th Oct 9th Nov 3rd 13th Jan 15th 24th 19th - 28th Feb 20 5th 15th April 20 18th 30th July 20 9th 18th Sept 20 21st 31st Oct 20 June 20th 28th Aug 3rd 12th Aug 17th 27th Sept 13th 25th Sept 30th Oct 9th Nov 3rd 13th Jan 15th 24th 19th - 28th Feb 20 5th 15th April 20 18th 30th July 20 9th 18th Sept 20 21st 31st Oct 20 June 20th 28th Aug 3rd 12th Aug 17th 27th Sept 13th 25th Sept 30th Oct 9th Nov 3rd 13th Jan 15th 24th 19th - 28th Feb 20 5th 15th April 20 18th 30th July 20 9th 18th Sept 20 21st 31st Oct 20 Party Support First Preference (excluding don t knows) Base: All giving a first preference FINE GAEL FIANNA FÁIL SINN FÉIN LABOUR GREEN PARTY INDEPENDENTS OTHERS* *ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards *People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 20) Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?

12 Satisfaction with the way the Government is running the country has slipped back sharply over the last month Just one in five are happy with the Current performance HIGHER AMONG DEs 82 Leinster Residents 77 Fianna Fáil Supporters 83 Sinn Féin Supporters 96 Independent Supporters 88 Dissatisfied (62) Satisfied (27) Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG year olds 26 ABs 39 Dublin Residents 28 Fine Gael Supporters 72 Labour Supporters 30 ( )= September 20 Results 12. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?

13 Satisfaction with Government Over Time Mar 13 Apr 13 May 5 th 16 th 13 May 17 th -28 th 13 June 20 th 28 th 13 Aug 3 rd -12 th 13 Aug 17 th -27 th 13 Sept 13 th -25 th 13 Sept 30 th - Oct 9 th 13 Nov 3 rd -13 th 13 Jan 15 th -24 th Feb 19 th 28 th 20 Apr 5 th -15 th 2013 Jul 18 th 30 th 20 Sep 9 th 18 th 20 Oct 21 st 31 st Dissatisfied Satisfied Don t know

14 Satisfaction with Party Leaders Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore Joan Burton* Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Early Aug Late Aug Late Sept Early Oct Early Nov Jan Feb Apr Jul Sep Oct Satisfied Dissatisfied Don t know (8) (9) (9) (9) (9) (9) (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (12) (13) (13) (12) (11) (16) () (15) (33) (22) (17) (15) (18) (18) (15) (15) (18) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (19) (18) (20) (17) (15) (20) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17). Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

15 Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG year olds 72 C2DEs 73 Fianna Fáil Supporters 78 Sinn Féin Supporters 91 Independent Supporters 82 Dissatisfied (58) Satisfied (31) Don t know (11) HIGHER AMONG year olds 35 ABs 39 Farming Community 31 Dublin Residents 30 Fine Gael Supporters 76 Labour Supporters 44 ( )= September 20 Results 15. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

16 Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG Males year olds 60 C2s 64 Sinn Féin Supporters 76 Independent Supporters 69 Dissatisfied (48) Satisfied (30) HIGHER AMONG year olds ABs 48 Dublin Residents 32 Fine Gael Supporters 63 Labour Supporters 68 Don t know (22) ( )= September 20 Results 16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

17 Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG year olds 59 Dissatisfied (48) HIGHER AMONG year olds 36 C2s 60 Dublin Residents 62 Sinn Féin Supporters 72 Independent Supporters Satisfied (30) Farming Community 48 Fianna Fáil Supporters 73 Fine Gael Supporters 37 Don t know (21) ( )= September 20 Results 17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail?

18 Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG ABs 67 Farming Community 67 Dissatisfied (46) Satisfied (28) HIGHER AMONG year olds 32 DEs 32 Leinster Residents 32 Sinn Féin Supporters 70 Munster Residents 63 Fianna Fáil Supporters Fine Gael Supporters 70 Labour Supporters 73 Don t know (24) ( )= September 20 Results 18. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

19 Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independent Supporters Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fail? Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

20 20. National Opinion Poll: October 20 - Special Questions for Publication on 2 nd November 20

21 One in two have full confidence that the current Government will last until 2016 Yes Will the present Fine Gael/Labour Government run its full term? YES HIGHER AMONG Apr 51 Jun 40 Jul Oct Males year olds ABs 68 Farming Community 61 Leinster Residents 56 Fianna Fáil Supporters 56 Fine Gael Supporters 78 Labour Supporters 71 No It depends Don t know NO HIGHER AMONG year olds 31 C2s 33 Sinn Fein Supporters 39 Independent Supporters Q. Do you believe that the present Fine Gael/Labour Government will run its full term to 2016 or not?

22 Support for the formation of a new political party has rebounded since the beginning of the year December 2012 June 2013 August 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 20 Oct 20 YES HIGHER AMONG Females year olds 54 Yes C2DEs 54 Leinster Residents 57 Sinn Fein Supporters 63 Independent Supporters 58 No NO HIGHER AMONG year olds 52 It depends Don t know ABs 53 Farming Community 52 Dublin Residents 46 Fianna Fáil Supporters 49 Fine Gael Supporters Q. Do you think there is a need for a new political party at this time or not?

23 Leo Varadker is the clear frontrunner to be the next leader of Fine Gael Total HIGHER AMONG Leo Varadkar Simon Coveney year olds 35 ABs 39 Dublin Residents 33 Fine Gael Supporters 39 Micheal Noonan None of them HIGHER AMONG ABs 17 Farming Community 23 Fianna Fáil Supporters 22 Fine Gael Supporters 23 Someone else 5 HIGHER AMONG Don t know year olds 17 Leinster Residents 15 Fine Gael Supporters 22 Labour Supporters Q. Which of the following TDs do you think would make for the most effective successor to Enda Kenny as the next leader of Fine Gael?

24 Little trust evident in the current Party Political system Have a lot of trust Have some trust 9 20 Any trust 29 HIGHER AMONG ABs 44 Dublin Residents 39 Fine Gael Supporters 68 Have some distrust 20 Labour Supporters 41 Have no trust 45 Any distrust 65 HIGHER AMONG year olds 69 C2DEs 71 Don t know/no opinion 6 Leinster Residents 71 Munster Residents 70 Sinn Fein Supporters 82 Independent Supporters Q Do you have trust in the current party political system in the Dail or not?

25 The economy is the most important issue for the next General Election for many at the expense of Ethics? Ethical behaviour of politicians Handling the economy well HIGHER AMONG year olds 20 ABs 21 Dublin Residents 20 Labour Supporters 22 Both Neither/ Don t know HIGHER AMONG ABs 47 Farming Community 50 Fine Gael Supporters 50 Labour Supporters Q Which of the following will be most the most important issue for you in the next general election?

26 Deep disquiet giving PPS Numbers to Irish Water Very comfortable Quite comfortable Neither Quite uncomfortable Net comfortable 20 HIGHER AMONG year olds 27 ABs 32 Farming Community 30 Fine Gael Supporters 45 Labour Supporters 30 Very uncomfortable 51 Net uncomfortable 67 HIGHER AMONG C2DEs 73 Don t know 4 Munster Residents 74 Connacht/Ulster Residents 72 Sinn Fein Supporters Q How comfortable or uncomfortable are you with giving your PPS number to Irish Water?

27 Over half have cut back on the amount of water used since water charges were introduced HIGHER AMONG Farming Community 66 Connacht/Ulster Residents 44 Have not cut back Don t know Cut back a lot HIGHER AMONG C2s 20 Dublin Residents 19 Fine Gael Supporters 18 Sinn Fein Supporters 18 Cut back a little HIGHER AMONG ABs 45 Leinster Residents 46 Labour Supporters Q Has your household cut back on the amount of water you are using since the introduction of water charges or not?

28 Just two in five are definitely intending to pay water charges Yes, intend to pay 41 YES HIGHER AMONG year olds 47 No, do not intend to pay It depends year olds 52 ABs 65 Dublin Residents 47 Fine Gael Supporters 72 Labour Supporters 55 Not applicable Don't know 8 7 NO HIGHER AMONG C2DEs 32 Connacht/Ulster Residents 29 Sinn Fein Supporters Q Do you intend to pay your water charges when the bills start to arrive in January 2015 or not?

29 Just a handful feel better off as a result of Budget 2015 HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG Males year olds year olds 43 Farming Community 47 Connacht/Ulster Residents 40 Sinn Fein Supporters 44 Worse off Better off Don t know ABs 16 Dublin Residents 13 Fine Gael Supporters 19 Labour Supporters 15 Independents Supporters About the same/ makes no difference 29. Q. And do you think that as a result of the Budget announced on Tuesday th October, you will be personally worse off, better off or about the same as before?

30 Strong belief more resources should have been devoted to Public Services Public Services such as health Education, Social Benefits Decreasing taxation Should have devoted more resources They got it about right Should have devoted less resources Don t know/no opinion Q. And do you think that in the recent Budget, the Government should have devoted more resources, less resources, or did they get it about right in terms of

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