European Movement Ireland Research Poll. April 2017 Ref:

Transcription

1 European Movement Ireland Research Poll April 2017 Ref:

2 Methodology and Weighting RED C interviewed a random sample of 1,007 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 24 th 27 th April A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included this also ensures that exdirectory households are covered. Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+. In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO.

3 Sample Profile 51% Age 10% 19% 21% AB 14% C1 28% 18% C2 21% 49% 14% 18% DE 31% F 6% 18% 28% 26% 28% 13% 7% 15% 6% 43% Refused 8% 26% 10% 1% 55% 14% Refused 1%

4 Agreement with statements on EU summary Change Vs. May 16 88% Ireland should remain -2% a part of the EU Taking everything into consideration, Ireland has on balance benefited from being a member of the EU Given that the UK has voted to leave the EU, Ireland should also leave the EU* 16% = -3% 82% The UK should have voted to remain in the EU* -4% Ireland should be part of increased EU defence and security co-operation** The vote by the UK for Brexit will cause a return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic** Irish belief in the value of EU membership remains strong, with still agreeing Ireland has benefited from being a member and a similar proportion believing we should remain one. The Brexit vote also has not had much impact on opinions, with just 16% believing Ireland should now also leave. 57% 49% *Statement Changed to past tense **New Statement April 17

5 Attitudes towards Ireland and the EU Ireland should remain a part of the EU % Taking everything into consideration, Ireland has on balance benefited from being a member of the EU % Given that the UK has voted to leave the EU, Ireland should also leave the EU* % Jan 13 The UK should have voted to remain in the EU* % June 13 May 15 May 16 Ireland should be part of increased EU defence and security co-operation** % Apr 17 The vote by the UK for Brexit will cause a return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic** % Agree strongly Agee slightly Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Don t know * * Post the Brexit vote, nearly two thirds of Irish people also continue to strongly believe the UK should have voted to remain, while the population is relatively evenly split on whether they think Brexit will mean a return of a hard border. A slight majority agree Ireland should be part of increased EU security co-operation. *Statement Changed to past tense **New Statement April 17

6 Ireland should remain a part of the EU 88% 94% 80% 89% 89% Age 72% 91% 89% 99% 86% 90% 90% 90% C2DE 83% 86% 88% ABC1 91% F 88% 90% 82% 86% 88%

7 Taking everything into consideration, Ireland has on balance benefited from being a member of the EU Age 86% 92% 80% 90% 91% 66% 90% 84% 95% 89% 93% 90% 83% ABC1 95% C2DE 81% F 89% 88% 84%

8 Given the UK has voted to leave, Ireland should also leave the EU 16% 17% 13% 20% 15% 14% 18% 10% 16% 15% 14% 22% 16% Age 13% 1% 17% 33% 23% 13% ABC1 14% C2DE 18% F 15% 15% 15% 15% 23%

9 The UK should have voted to remain in the EU 82% 84% 75% 84% 81% 83% Age 83% 70% 86% 77% 82% 81% 86% 80% 76% 92% 82% ABC1 89% C2DE 77% F 82% 70% 78% 82%

10 Ireland should be part of increased EU defence and security co-operation 57% 55% 62% 58% 53% 55% 59% 51% 58% 59% Age 59% 56% 55% 58% 50% 70% 69% 59% 63% ABC1 52% C2DE 61% F 54% 61% 52% 53% 50%

11 The vote by the UK for Brexit will cause a return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic Age 49% 50% 52% 49% 46% 39% 59% 45% 40% 56% 51% 50% 47% 47% 45% 48% 40% 62% 60% ABC1 49% C2DE 48% F 53% 51% 45% 41% 59%

12 Key Findings 1 Support for Ireland s membership of the EU remains relatively stable year on year at nearly 90%. Meanwhile a similar significant majority of the population also agree with the idea that Ireland has benefited from our EU membership Post the Brexit vote, Irish opinions on what way they believe the UK should have voted also remain relatively unchanged, with 82% agreeing they should have voted to remain. Further, just 16% agree that Ireland should follow the UK out of the EU. Demographically speaking, little differences are seen in support levels for Ireland s EU membership or agreeing with the value of it. The only exception is the who are slightly less positive towards the EU and more supportive of Brexit. Nearly 6 in 10, are in favour of increased EU defence and security co-operation, although some demographic differences are evident, with those in the lower social grades significantly more in favour of enhanced co-operation in this sphere. It s clear that there is no consensus over what will happen with the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic with an even split between those who agree Brexit will mean the return of a hard Border and those who don t.

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