Rethinking the Foundations of the National Security Strategy and the QDR Seminar Series 3 February 2009 Dr. George Friedman

Transcription

1 Rethinking the Fundatins f the Natinal Security Strategy and the QDR Seminar Series 3 February 2009 Dr. Gerge Friedman Funder and CEO, Stratfr The Geplitical Envirnment f the 21st Century Nte: 1. Belw are infrmal ntes taken by a JHU/APL staff member at the Seminar. 2. Dr. Friedman s new bk mentined in the ntes belw is entitled The Next Hundred Years: A Frecast fr the 21st Century, and was published in January. Dr. Friedman began by nting that writing a bk abut the entire 21 st Century culd be cnsidered bth presumptuus and prepsterus. Hwever, there is the advantage that if he turns ut t be wrng, he wn t be arund t knw hw wrng he was. Intelligence is the art f frecasting It can invlve either majr cncerns r minr nes (what will a freign educatin minister say tmrrw) The purpse f intel is t discuss the future while histry is abut the past Using intel t frecast fr the next century can be cnsidered extreme frecasting Stratfr usually lks ut in its frecasts fr 10 years Certain assumptins are used t develp thse frecasts The bk flwed ut f this set f assumptins Must decide what is really imprtant in determining the future Imprtant in frecasting t distinguish between essential and transitry elements f the future While it might be pssible t describe a future, the details are likely t be wrng But what will be imprtant will be visible Example: Predicting the future frm abut 1850 in Eurpe It wuld have been pssible t knw that Germany wuld be a majr element in Eurpe Hwever, there were varius histric discntinuities Lking at the future frm 1900, n ne wuld have predicted the end f empires Nr that Japan, China, and Suth Krea wuld be majr ecnmic pwers There wuld be a sense that Eurpe wuld be muddling thrugh Peple tend t think that the future will lk a lt like tday nly a little different In 1800 n ne wuld have predicted that the US wuld be a naval pwer by 1900 Cmmn sense is the biggest prblem in develping frecasts Cmmn sense frecasts are prjectins frm the present We tend t think that whichever cuntry is strng will stay strng Trends in geplitics are nt linear discntinuities ccur Geplitics is curvilinear The trick is t be able t identify the trends and their velcities Tday s Lng War cncept cmes frm thinking linearly There has been fight in the Middle East fr 50 years s we expect it t cntinue Lk at 20 years increments t see the histric discntinuities Things change a lt sner than even 20-year time spans The Pst-Cld War wrld lasted nly frm 1991 until 9/11/2001 Lk at massive changes in geplitics frm 1920 t 1940 t 1960 t 1980 t 2000 Lng wars dn t last that lng 1

2 Main frces that drive the frecasts fr the 21 st Century 1. Persistent empwerment f the United States which has been ging n since 1850 a. US grwth is really still accelerating despite tday s headlines 2. Cllapse f the ppulatin explsin a. Industrialized cuntries: already d nt have birthrates t supprt replacement b. Mid-range cuntries: at abut the break-even pint c. Least develped cuntries: birthrates drpping (frm 7.5 births per wman t 5.1 in last 15 years) The Cntinuing Grwth f US Pwer Issue Frm 1492 t 1991 the center f gravity fr geplitics was Eurpe In 1492 the wrld became integrated Eurpean decisins determined events arund the wrld Perid f the first glbal civilizatins empires f the Iberians, British, Dutch, etc. Example: Australian abrigines were affected by plicies made half a wrld away by British wh were trying t handle the verppulatin f Ireland During this time the geplitical center f gravity was the Nrth Atlantic Cuntries frm there ran massive glbal empires starting with the Dutch and the East Indies Whichever cuntry culd cntrl the Nrth Atlantic cntrlled access t the empires In turn it was the Spanish and the British mainly All the while that Eurpe cntrlled the wrld thrugh its clnies, it kept having internal wars Eurpe did nt develp a central authrity t cntrl itself By 1945 there was little left standing Why Eurpe never came tgether: the English Channel Cuntries built huge land armies but culd nt g that last 30 miles acrss the channel Culd nt even d it when aircraft and rckets became available As a result Eurpe tre itself apart and was ccupied by tw semi-eurpean cuntries The US and the Sviet Unin bth had ties t Eurpe but nt really Eurpean Nrth Atlantic cntrl became less imprtant in 1980 when trans-pacific trade utpaced trans-atlantic Nw t cntrl wrld cmmerce/events a cuntry must cntrl bth ceans But there is nthing mre expensive than a navy, especially aircraft carriers If yu culd have bases n bth ceans, then yu had an immediate advantage The Amazn and the Andes ensures n S. America cuntry culd cntrl bth casts S nly N. America has the gegraphic advantage, and the US dminates there US advantages help a great deal Envirnmental resurces include great navigable rivers and vast mineral resurces Mstly under-ppulated when lk at arable r all land Germany has abut 265 peple per square mile US has abut 34 withut cunting Alaska Advantages can be summed up as Capital / Land / Labr Capital: US is well-capitalized, even if nt quite as well as befre Land: under-utilized cmpared t Eurpe even with Nrth East s slightly different view Labr: US absrbs peple well including huge numbers lately frm Asia / Latin America US ecnmy is as big as the next 4 ecnmies cmbined plus Denmark s US deindustrializatin means utput is as big as China and Japan cmbined Basically, bullets that wuld flatten mst ecnmies bunce ff the US Recent news reprts claim declines are the biggest since 1982 Des anyne remember hw bad 1982 was? Nt really When lking at US ecnmy since 1870 even Depressin was nly a bump in the rad Strength f the US ecnmy is vastly underestimated and s is its Navy It culd cntrl any sea it wanted t US is capable f invading any ther cuntry it wanted t and nne culd invade it US culd cntrl trading patterns culd stp China frm exprting China hlds wargames abut this happening Big questin: Why wuld the US disrupt China s exprts? Cnsider the US as an ver-grwn 15-year ld by with sme f the same characteristics 1. Has manically high phases with tremendus self-cnfidence 2. Then becmes miserably depressed 3. Always cncerned that nbdy likes him (That desn t matter but Americans wn t accept it yet) 2

3 Smeday US will utgrw this phase like any 15-year-ld de Currently it is a natinal characteristic There is a difference between the reality f American pwer and the perceptin f that pwer by Americans T be surpassed, US must have smene t pass them, but Wh? Hw? The Decline in Ppulatin Issue The prblem: mst f Eurpe and Japan cannt nw replace their ppulatins Need 2.1 births per wman but mst cuntries are nly at abut 1.3 t 1.7 This is als abut true fr US Caucasians If the new arrivals are cunted, the US cmes clser t the 2.1 level Immigrant have als transferred 3 rd Wrld birthrates here Surges in ppulatin are ver in advanced cuntries Nearly ver in mid-range cuntries Will end fr all cuntries by the end f the century Frm 1950 t 2000: 100% grwth By 2050: nly abut 50% grwth By 2100: nly abut 10% grwth r maybe even less Why the surges are ending: urbanizatin It is expensive t raise children in cities Mre children in agrarian scieties makes sense, but nt in cities Lk at changes in hw lives are lived In urban scieties almst 50% f a life-span is nw nn-prductive Average age fr leaving schl in the US is 23 a little higher than elsewhere Average retirement age is 65 Scial Security was set up when life expectancy was 62 N ne expected this huge shift in living These changes als reflect in the size f the chrt available t the armed frces Get an inverted pyramid in ppulatins Every cuntry is having prblems trying t integrate new peple Japan did nt even try US/Australia/Canada/New Zealand are best at integratin US can cme up with as many new Americans as it wants In years the desire t cme t the US will drp ff Mexic already has the 13 th largest ecnmy and peple will want t stay there Decisins will need t be made t cme t the US versus Spain r Italy r. Imprtant Trends The jihadist war is ver There have been Arab terrrists fr 1,000 years s they will cntinue Imprtant trend: Russia is cming back t pwer When Russia was beating up n the Gergians, US was in n psitin t resist Shwed that the US natinal security guarantees meant nthing When Russia was suppsed t get ut f the area, they remained fr a while because they culd Had a majr psychlgical impact Expect t see a pr-russian gvernment in Ukraine this year Expect anther US-Russian perid f face-ff in the 21 st century Starting with the whle issue f missile defense in Eurpe See Dr. Friedman s p-ed in the Feb 3rd New Yrk Times n this tpic Russia will place a high price fr prviding access t Afghanistan Likely: N NATO trps in the Baltics Questin: Is Afghanistan wrth that price? Leading Cuntries f the Future In 1900 few wuld have guessed that by the end f the century that the US and Japan wuld be great pwers Nr wuld Israel be cnsidered at all since it did nt exist Three cuntries that will be majr players in the 21 st century 1. Japan has the secnd largest ecnmy 3

4 Als has a substantial navy and air frce plus a land frce as big as the UK s Cntinues t have majr interests and influence in the Nrth Pacific Understands that the interests/needs f the US may change They culd becme a majr player whenever they decide t d s 2. Turkey 17 th largest ecnmy and grwing at 5% per year Excellent, well-integrated armed frces Turkish impact felt thrughut the ld Ottman Empire Training plice in Central Asia Wrking as merchants in nrthern Iraq Wide presence dne with a light hand Islamic wrld had ne center pint fr 5 centuries Empire stretched frm walls f Vienna t Russia with alliances such as Venice Psitin in the last 100 years has been unnatural Fall f the Ottman Empire kept them ut f Wrld War I Helped them in ther ways, t Expect an Islamic challenge frm a traditinal center Turkey will be helped by the fact that it is critical t US interests in the regin 3. Pland Ecnmy is grwing enrmusly while that f the rest f Eurpe is nt Partly because Germany and France made it t hard t hire peple Mre like an adptin than a hiring cmplex scial welfare nets Created a scial structure that is mre like a system f bligatins Technical base is falling behind because f scial bligatins Pland is nt as cnstrained In eastern Eurpe must recgnize the imprtance f the hatred fr bth Germany and Russia US has reasns fr Eurpe and Russia t nt cme tgether Brder between Eurpe and Russia is Pland US wants a strng Pland A 20 th Century pattern: If the US has a fundamental interest in a cuntry, it des very well See S. Krea fr example smewhat artificial grwth but gives it pwer S. Krea gets tech transfer advantages and gd relatins with the US Israel is anther example shuld nt be as strng as it is in the regin See Germany and Japan after Wrld War II Pland must be sphisticated enugh t absrb US intentins and interests Cncept f a missile defense system in Pland is the camel s nse under the tent If the US puts a system there, they will need t prtect it with mre trps, aircraft, etc. Trps bring ther benefits as well as need fr tech transfers Result: Pland will be transfrmed by 2050 with US help it will be mst dynamic in Eurpe Frecasts: Turkey will be reshaping its part f the wrld Japan will be reshaping the Nrth Pacific China will nt be a lng term player Civilian ecnmies and the militaries will bth have prblems with dwindling labr frces Slutin 1: Immigratin Slutin 2: Labr enhancers (really rbts but brings up the wrng image) Currently immigrant labr is still cheaper than technlgy effrts By immigrant labr will nt be an ptin at all Advances in technlgy will cme largely frm DD basic effrts Space will be a majr pusher f technlgy We need space and the things we put in space will need t be fixed by rbts Rely n space nw fr navigatin, cmmunicatin, etc. If can hld the high grund, will be able t ensure sea cntrl Oceans and navies will decline in imprtace Hyper speed missiles will make naval ships bslete If ding sea cntrl nly with a 25kt ship, culd nt achieve denial Space will als help with the develpment f better, cheaper energy ptins Will need t slve the battery prblem 4

5 Wrld als needs cnsistent surces f energy Hydrcarbn fuels are ging away Nuclear pwer takes t lng t build s ecnmics change Slar (including wind and waves) Prblems with nights/cluds/a lt f rm fr cllectrs Slutin: G t place where always sunny, lts f rm, etc. Other help will cme frm effrts fr space turism Expect slar pwer frm space by the end f the century If the US cntrls space, it culd have a better mnply than the Saudis The military is ging int space anyway, s energy develpment might as well tag alng Natins will cntinue t fight but the wars will be less bldy because f precisin weapns The Great Pwers will be different pssibly nt the nes we nw expect We are nt fighting a hundred-year war An illusin f every war is that it will never end And then it des causing great jy And then there is anther war. QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION Turkey & Other Rising Natins Achieving membership in the Eurpean Unin used t be imprtant t Turkey Abut 2 years ag Turkey started grwing faster than the EU Nw Turkey is almst afraid f being ffered membership Turkey s Kurdish prblem is nt ging t be ging away Turkey has been using vilence suppressin tactics t restrain the prblem As Turkey gets strnger there will be mre pprtunities fr the Kurds There is n hpe fr a separate Kurdish state The 4 th cuntry likely t be n the rise in the 21 st Century is Mexic The biggest threat t Mexic s grwth is the legalizatin f drugs in the US In mid-mexic there are vast numbers f mdern factries including rbtics plants It remains a cuntry f many cntrasts It is pssible that by the end f the century the US and Mexic will be invlved in a face-ff Wuld invlve the parts f the US that were seceded frm Mexic in the past Mexic s influence is grwing in that area because s many f its peple have mved there The 5 th cuntry likely t be n the rise in this century is Brazil But it is a significant distance behind the thers and is really an island Gegraphy wn t allw it t push int the rest f Latin America and t far frm the rest f the wrld Membership in the Tp Ten is likely t change Italy, Spain, and Germany are likely t fall ut f the Tp Ten This wuld be part f nrmal rtatin amng the cuntries near the tp Advances in DNA and related technlgies were purpsely nt cnsidered in making the frecasts fr the bk Birthrate plicies China s ne-child strategy went very wrng when a strng preference fr sns caused an abnrmal distributin f males in the ppulatin which is nw causing instability prblems It is likely there will be sme cuntries taking active measures t increase native ppulatins Really need t use financial incentives Raising large families in the US csts mre than the gvernment culd affrd t pay 5

6 Csts in 3 rd wrld cuntries might be less but gvernments have few assets The Sviet Unin did try incentivizing in the past In agrarian scieties having larger families will be just naturally happen Plicies t increase family size just dn t wrk The impact f changes in the availability f ther natural resurces was nt cnsidered in the frecasts Nn-state actrs There have always been nn-state actrs including criminals and pirates Als had influential multi-natinal rganizatins in the past: Hudsn Bay C. / East Indies C. Natin-states were supplemented and surrunded by them Natin-states are still best way t rganize delivery f services t citizens, defenses, etc. Bin Laden was nt planning n remaining as a nn-state actr after 9/11 He was hping t trade up t a better launch pad fr his revlutin Egypt instead f Afghanistan But the disruptins he believed wuld happen did nt spread anywhere else We can expect that 90% f hstilities in the 21 st century will be with sub-state actrs But the 10% with states will be mre imprtant and mre dangerus Casualty rates and explsives The mst imprtant develpment in warfare has been explsives Initially, explsives permitted stand-ff weapns artillery and ballistic prjectiles Artillery and missiles needed factries Then ppnents needed aircraft t destry factries PGMs precisin-guided missiles revlutinized mdern warfare In Wrld War I it was assumed that yu wuld need 10,000 bullets t kill ne enemy sldier Since Vietnam, there is n lnger a need t shwer targets with bullets/bmbs t get a kill In Baghdad culd take ut a cmms center withut taking ut the 5 blcks arund it Bdy armr has als had a majr impact There shuld have been many mre deaths in Iraq withut it Sn infantrymen will be mre survivable, lethal, wired Can t deply frces t 5,000 miles away with 19 th century weapns Hypersnic weapns will be cming Hi-G turns and enrmus speeds will n lnger allw fr human pilts At the same time weapns are becming mre precise Sldiers may have imprved survivability but may nt remain effective fr their missins Result f all these imprvements will be less casualties amng sldiers and civilians Wars will be less devastating t scieties India culd take ut just Pakistan s intelligence headquarters but wuld be the cnsequences? Other issues The prblem with batteries is the center f gravity f all ther energy-related prblems Bi- and nan-technlgies are cming tgether and they will have an impact China will remain a 3 rd wrld cuntry really Abut 1.1 billin peple live at the level f Nigeria Many in bming cities barely eek ut an existence There is really nly a thin layer f grwth alng the cast Develpment levels culd changes within just blcks Servers at a $1,000 dinner make nly tiny amunts f pay But it is still better than their chances in the cuntryside where they came frm In cities huge numbers live in miserable, unheated buildings China is a highly exprt-riented ecnmy, making things fr the US and nt its wn use When Americans lse their jbs, they d have prblems When Chinese lse their jbs, they starve China culd sn have huge armies f unemplyed 6

7 Same thing happened in 1927 resulted in Ma s Lng March Leadership must strategize fr internal prblems such as the rise in lynchings f Party members China is teetering n brink f chas but is perceived by Western media as ding quite well Majr prblem: mst lans are nt repaid much like Japan Lans g nly t thse with gd cnnectins There are n expectatins lans will be repaid China is sitting n a large chunk f US dllars But vast areas f the cuntry are nt tuched by grwth China has many plans but its resurces are limited Gegraphically limited Himalayas n ne side and Siberia n anther Han Chinese are limited t eastern part f China while west is largely uninhabited China says they have 20 millin unemplyed mre like 200 millin Larger number is nt cntrversial amng China experts Space and ther matters in the 21 st Century What the US culd d if ther cuntries try t g int space with hstile intent: sht them dwn US must share space but at sme geplitical expense There is a pssibility f a space war Cld fusin advances culd change many equatins But will it happen? China frm 1850 t 1950 was mre an area f reginalism Beijing has nly be in cntrl a little while When China is clsed t the utside, it can have central cntrl Reginal pwer centers are mre the nrm Whenever China is pen t the utside wrld, it suffers frm reginal cnflicts Russia can be expected t cllapse It is much weaker than it was during the Cld War It can be pwerful reginally and it culd cause prblems US strategy in the 21 st Century US must prtect its naval pwer make sure n ther cuntry surpasses it US ges ut ccasinally and creates just enugh chas t keep dwn ther cntenders Nt that the US realizes it is ding such a thing Example: the Sunnis and Shiites are busy killing each ther Iraq is nt abut demcracy There is n central place that determines US actins N real General Staff US service chiefs f staff wrry mre abut budgets This is why the US des s badly at the start f wars Then the services get it tgether and d much better There is a pattern f American warfare which largely invlves the defense planning prcess Kept separate frm geplitics Since the US is s big and pwerful, it can affrd t be stupid N ne element f the gvernment is actually planning anything Nuclear weapns in the 21 st Century N cuntry but the US has ever used nuclear weapns Why nt? Use f nuclear weapns rarely have adequate plitical effect The threat f their use is mre imprtant than actually using them Pakistan and India can threaten a great deal But what wuld happen if Pakistan launched a nuclear weapn int central Mumbai and it did nt explde? Are the Pakistanis that sure f their weapns withut real testing? N way t knw what things wuld be like after a nuclear weapn use One big prblem wuld be if Russia r China cllapsed and nuclear weapns fell int rgue hands Best fr wrld if US gt cntrl f them Really need a state t cntrl nuclear weapns 7