ELECTION SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT: TOWARDS 2016 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION IN EDO STATE

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2 ELECTION SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT: TOWARDS 2016 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION IN EDO STATE 11th Edition, SEPTEMBER, 2016 With Support from PLAC & DFID 2

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION...4 A BRIEF HISTORY OF EDO STATE...4 RELIGIOUS COMPOSITION...5 POLITICS OF EDO STATE...5 PARTIES AND CANDIDATES IN THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION...6 RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS...9 METHODOLOGY...9 FREQUENCY TABLE FOR GENERAL PUBLIC RESPONDENTS (LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS)...9 GENDER TABLE FOR GENERAL PUBLIC RESPONDENTS...10 FREQUENCY TABLE FOR EXPERTS RESPONDENTS (LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA)...13 GENDER (EXPERTS RESPONDENTS)...14 KEY FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH...15 MAP OF EDO STATE SHOWING POSSIBLE HOTSPOTS DURING THE 2016 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION...16 TABLES SHOWING POSSIBLE HOTSPOTS FROM THE ELECTION VIOLENCE MITIGATION TOOL FIELD WORK FOR GENERAL AND EXPERTS RESPONDENTS...17 SYNTHESIS OF KEY RISK FACTORS...18 CONCLUSION...19 RECOMMENDATIONS...19 APPENDICES...20 Appendix A...20 APPENDIX B...25 APPENDIX C...32 APPENDIX D

4 INTRODUCTION As Edo State prepares for the gubernatorial election scheduled for September 10, 2016, the political atmosphere of the state is already charged ahead of the election that promises to be one of the most keenly contested in the history of the state. The tense political temperature is further heightened by the inflammatory utterances of the major candidates as well as reported cases of attacks and counter-attacks on their campaign convoys. In this analysis, the risk factors that may threaten public peace and security during and immediately after the election are examined as well how they can be checked or de-escalated. The preparations by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies are highlighted as well as recommendations on how to ensure a free, free and conclusive election in Edo State. A BRIEF HISTORY OF EDO STATE Edo State was created on August 27, 1991 when the military government led by General Ibrahim Babangida divided the former Bendel State into two separate states namely Edo and Delta states. Edo State occupies a land area of about 17,802 square kilometers and has a population of about four million with a density of 168 persons per square kilometre. The ancient Benin City is the capital of the state. Edo State shares borders with three other states Ondo State to the west; Delta State to the south and east; and Kogi to the north. This strategic location of the state has over the years attracted a large migrant population from other regions of Nigeria. The state has three senatorial districts (Edo South, Edo Central and Edo North); nine Federal House of Representative seats; and 24 House of Assembly seats. Of the three senatorial districts, Edo South has the largest populations (57.54 per cent) spread across seven local government areas (LGAs); followed by Edo North which has 25 per cent of the populations spread across six LGAs; and finally Edo Central Senatorial District which constitutes per cent of the populations of the state and occupy five LGAs. The LGAs in each senatorial district are shown in the table below: S/N Senatorial District 1. Edo South Senatorial District 2. Edo North Senatorial District 3. Edo Central Senatorial District LGAs Egor, Orhionmwon, Ovia North-East, Ovia South-West, Ikpoba- Okha, Oredo, and Uhunmwode Akoko-Edo, Etsako Central, Etsako East, Etsako West, Owan East, and Owan West Esan Central, Esan West, Esan South-East, Esan North-East, and Igueben 4

5 The three senatorial districts are also largely demarcated along the three major ethno-cultural lines of the state. While Edo South is predominantly made up of the Edo or Bini-speaking people; Edo North comprises mainly the Afemai people including Etsako (12.19 per cent), Owan (7.43 per cent), and Akoko-Edo (5.70 per cent); and Edo Cenral is largely composed of the Esan people. Regardless of these three broad ethno-cultural divisions, there are several minority ethnic groups in the state including the Ijaw, Itsekiri, Urhobo, Igbirra, Ika and Igbo. Though leading politicians have politicized and manipulated the ethnic differences among the groups over the years especially when agitating for state and locality creations, yet the people share enormous cultural similarities and linguistic affinities owing to their historical roots to the ancient Benin Kingdom. But despite its huge human capital and cash crops production in the country, Edo State is largely underdeveloped when compared with several other states in the country. Even the existing infrastructures such as roads, public health facilities, schools, etc. which were built in the 1970s and 1980s by the governments of Samuel Ogbemudia and Ambrose Alli have been poorly maintained over the years. And some of the state-owned companies such as the Bendel Brewery have even been sold off. Thus, Edo State has a high level of unemployment and attendant criminal violence such as cultism, armed robbery and ransom kidnapping. The underdevelopments of the state and recent upsurge in social vices have been blamed generally on poor governance. RELIGIOUS COMPOSITION Perhaps due to its social and ethnic diversity, Edo State is multi-religious in nature. While Christianity is the dominant religion in Edo South and Edo Central Senatorial Districts, Islam is the main religion in Edo North due to some historical antecedents. Christianity was introduced to the Benin Kingdom in the 15 th century by Portuguese missionaries whereas the Nupe warriors introduced Islam to Edo North in the twilight of the 19 th century. But besides these two dominant religions, Edo State also has large adherents of Traditional African Religion (ATR) especially among the Binis. In fact, ATR is the official religion of the Benin Traditional Council which is headed by the Oba (monarch) with the assistance of the Enogies (title holders). But despite its multi-religious character, Edo State enjoys a high degree of religious harmony because of the good mix of the adherents of the different faiths. This is a sharp contrast to the experience in some other parts of the country especially northern Nigeria where Christian-Muslim relations are characterized by mutual suspicion and incessant violence. POLITICS OF EDO STATE Over the years, Edo State has acquired a reputation as one of the frontlines of competitive politics in Nigeria. In confirmation of this, power has largely rotated between leading political parties in the state since the 1950s. Even the creation of the Mid-West Region in 1963 was an outcome of this competitive power struggle. Following alleged marginalization of Edo and Delta people in the Western Region, the Mid West State Movement (MWSM) agitated for the creation of the Mid-West Region. But the Action Group (AG) party which controlled the government in 5

6 the Western Region frustrated the quest for a separate region from its domain. To actualize their objective, the MWSM forged an alliance with the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) which controlled the central government in the First Republic in coalition with the Northern People s Party (NPP). In order to weaken the power of the AG which was the main opposition, the NPP-NCNC led national government granted the request of the MWSM and created the Mid-West Region in And since the NCNC had the largest number of seats in the House of Assembly, it formed the government. However, power swung to the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) which grew out of the AG in the Second Republic. As a result, Prof. Ambrose Alli became the governor of Bendel State between 1979 and But in the 1983 gubernatorial election, the opposition party defeated the UPN when Dr. Samuel Ogbemudia became governor under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). In line with this historical power competition between leading political parties, Chief John Oyegun of the left leaning Social Democratic Party (SDP) defeated the Chief Lucky Igbinedion of the conservative National Republican Convention (NRC) in 1991 and became the governor of the newly created Edo State in the short-lived Third Republic. But when the military disengaged from politics and Nigeria re-democratized in 1999, the rightleaning People s Democratic Party (PDP) rode back to power in the state with Chief Lucky Igbinedion as governor. Even though the PDP secured a re-election in 2003, the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) came to power in 2007 when Mr. Adams Oshiomhole (a former President of the Nigerian Labour Congress) was declared winner when the Court of Appeal affirmed the verdict of the Election Tribunal after the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) had declared Prof Oserhiemen Osunbor of the PDP winner and sworn in as governor 18 months earlier. With this development, Mr. Oshiomhole replaced Prof Osunbor as governor. Mr. Oshiomhole was reelected as governor in Also, the APC currently controls the House of Assembly with 18 seats against PDP s six seats. However, at the federal level, the opposition party, the PDP controls two senatorial districts (Edo Central and Edo South) while APC, the ruling party controls Edo North. In the House of Representatives, PDP controls five federal constituencies while the APC controls four. PARTIES AND CANDIDATES IN THE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION A total of 19 parties have registered candidates for the 2016 gubernatorial election. The parties, candidates and their deputies are shown in the table below. Contestants in Edo State 2016 Gubernatorial Election S/N Party Gov. candidate Deputy 1. AA Ishaka Paul Ofemilie Ewemade Nancy Osagie 2. ACD Andrew Igwemoh Osagie Egharevba Andrew 6

7 3. ACPN Cosmos Irabor Frederick Parker Odegua 4. APC Godwin Nogheghase Obaseki Philip Shaibu 5. APGA Onaiwu Osaze Osaro Okpebholo Oyemen Gladys 6. CPP David Ewanlen Okoror Ekhorotomwen Smile Uyi 7. ID Tobi Adeniyi Ebolo Julius 8 KOWA Thompson Osadolor Florence Adaehomen Okundaye 9. LP Amos Osalumese Areloegbe Jane Osagie 10. MPPP Oronsaye Richard Omijie Ehinor 11. NCP Peters Osawaru Omoragbon Ahmed Haruna 12. NNPP Ukonga Frank Onaivi Emodogo Dorcas Eweha 13. PDC Akhalamhe Amiemenoghena Aiyanyor Efosa Osarobo 14. PDP Ize-Iyamu Osagie Andrew John Ehibhatoman Yakubu 15. PPA Thomas Emanesi Sadoh Onaiwu Ogbeide 16. PPN Agol Tracy Ebun Osayomore Clement Osazee 17. SDP Omorogieva Gbajumo Isaac P.E. Ogona 18. UPP Adviser Shadrach Nowamagbe Ofogie Okosun Davies Roseline 19. YDP Nurudeen Inwanfero Dakpokpo Georgina Source: INEC 2016 Despite the unprecedented large number of contestants, the election is largely a contest between the incumbent APC and the PDP based on analysis of the strength and resources available to the various parties. Thus, the profiles of the APC and PDP contestants are examined below. 7

8 Mr. Godwin Obaseki Mr. Godwin Obaseki had his early education in St. Matthews Anglican Primary School and Eghosa Anglican Grammer School, Benin City. Later he attended the University of Ibadan where he obtained a BA in Classics before proceeding to Columbia University and Pace University in New York for an MBA in Finance and International Business. A Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Stock Brokers (Nigeria), Mr. Obaseki has had over 30 years career in Investment Banking, Asset Management, Securities Trading and the Public Sector both internationally and in Nigeria. Mr. Obaseki has also had a stint in public service. From March 2009 to date, he has served as the Chairman of the Edo State Government s Economic and Strategy Team (EST). Despite his paltry political experience, Mr. Obaseki enjoys enormous incumbency advantage because of the support accorded him by Governor Adams Oshiomhole. In addition, Mr. Obaseki s running mate, Hon. Phillip Shaibu, has been a member of the Edo State House of Assembly and is currently a member of the Federal House of Representatives. Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu had his early education at Ebenezer Primary School and Edo College in Benin City. He later studied for his LLB degree in the Faculty of Law, University of Benin and his BL at the Nigerian Law School. An astute businessman, Pastor Ize-Iyamu is the founder of I.O Farms Training Institute at Ugbor- Amagba communities in Benin City. He is also a pastor with the Redeemed Christian Church of God. Pastor Ize-Iyamu has been a key actor in Edo State politics and has held positions in both PDP and APC governments. He was the Chief of Staff, Government House from 1999 to 2003 under the administration of Chief Lucky Igbinedion. He was later elevated to the position of Secretary to the State Government (SSG).When he left the PDP, Pastor Ize-Iyamu served as the National Vice Chairman, South-South Zone of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and later as Director General of Oshiomhole s second term Campaign Organization under the APC. When he returned to the PDP, Pastor Ize-Iyamu was appointed Coordinator of Goodluck/Sambo Campaign Organization for the 2015 presidential election. 8

9 RESEARCH ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS This section of the assessment discusses the method through which data was collected in the field, identifies possible hot-spots for violence and key research findings. METHODOLOGY The procedure of producing the pre-election risk assessment report for the 2016 Edo state gubernatorial election was hinged on the election risk assessment protocol and instrument developed by the Electoral Institute of INEC. These can be broadly classified into two; 1. Field work: Recruitment and training of field workers The population was stratified into two, the general public (Nigerians of voting age) and the experts (Nigerians of voting age with expertise in the electoral process) Carried out field work in the 18 LGA in the state A margin of error of 3.5 and confidence level of 95% was used for this research. A total of 783 respondents were sampled. The data entry and analysis were done using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) and Excel. 2. Triangulation: The outcome of the field work was complemented by Key Informant Interviews, (KII) media reports etc. FREQUENCY TABLE FOR GENERAL PUBLIC RESPONDENTS (LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS) Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Akoko-Edo Egor Esan Central Esan North East

10 Esan South-East Esan West Estako West Etsako Central Etsako East Igueben Ikpoba - Okha Oredo Orhionmwon Ovia North East Ovia South West Owan East Owan West Uhunmwode Total GENDER TABLE FOR GENERAL PUBLIC RESPONDENTS Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Male Female

11 Total Missing System 1.3 Total Q1. Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree Total Missing System

12 Q1. Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree Total Missing System 2.5 Total

13 FREQUENCY TABLE FOR EXPERTS RESPONDENTS (LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA) Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Akoko-Edo Egor Esan Central Esan North East Esan South-East Esan West Estako West Etsako Central Etsako East Igueben Ikpoba - Okha Oredo Orhionmwon Ovia North East Ovia South West Owan East

14 Owan West Uhunmwode Total GENDER (EXPERTS RESPONDENTS) Valid Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Male Female Total Missing System Total

15 KEY FINDINGS OF THE RESEARCH RED: Oredo, Egor, Igueben, Esan- Central,, Etsako-West,, Orhiorwon. AMBER: Etsako East, Esan West, Esan South, Ovia South-West, Etsako-Central, Akoko Edo GREEN: Esan-North East, Owan-East, Ikpoba- Okha, Ovia North Ease, Owan West, Uhunmwode. 15

16 MAP OF EDO STATE SHOWING POSSIBLE HOTSPOTS DURING THE 2016 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION 16

17 TABLES SHOWING POSSIBLE HOTSPOTS FROM THE ELECTION VIOLENCE MITIGATION TOOL FIELD WORK FOR GENERAL AND EXPERTS RESPONDENTS GENERAL PUBLIC RESPONDENTS S/No LGA RED(30-100)% of violence 1 Ovia North East 2 Uhunmwode 3 Owan West 4 Owan East 5 Orhionmwon 6 Oredo 7 Ovia South West 8 Ikpoba-Okha 9 Igueben 10 Etsako Central 11 Esan Central 12 Esan South East 13 Egor 14 Etsako East 15 Etsako West 16 Esan West 17 Esan North East 18 Akoko Edo AMBER(10-29)% of violence GREEN (0-9)% of violence EXPERTS RESPONDENTS S/No LGA 1 Ovia North East 2 Uhunmwode 3 Owan West 4 Owan East 5 Orhionmwon 6 Oredo 7 Ovia South West 8 Ikpoba-Okha 9 Igueben 10 Etsako Central 11 Esan Central 12 Esan South East 13 Egor 14 Etsako East 15 Etsako West 16 Esan West 17 Esan North East 18 Akoko Edo RED(30-100)% of violence 17 AMBER(10-29)% of violence GREEN (0-9)% of violence

18 SYNTHESIS OF KEY RISK FACTORS The Role and Activities of Security Agencies: The role of security agencies in securing the election remains a risk factor especially when they fail to be professional in their duty. Late Deployment of INEC Staff and Materials: Delay on arrival of INEC staff over time has led to late commencement of elections and subsequent late closure sometimes extending into the night or shifted to next day giving room for suspicion and lack of trust. Political/Youth Violence: The violence recorded in the electioneering process where attributed to the activities of party thugs. For instance in Etsako West L.G.A, campaign bill boards of the APC and PDP were destroyed and the acts were alleged to be carried out by the political thugs of each party. There were also attacks on political Fear of Electoral manipulation: Vote rigging or perceived rigging will be a major trigger of violence during the gubernatorial election. INEC should ensure a level playing ground for all the political parties involved in the election. Failure of Card Readers: The failure of card readers constitutes a big risk of violence as have witnessed in the past. Poor Dissemination of Information: The level of illiteracy and lack of awareness is high in some of the areas covered and wil likely impact negatively on the election. MITIGATION FACTORS o Non-partisanship of the security agents. Although the several police and other security personnel will be deployed to Edo state during the election, the need for them to be non-partisan cannot be over-emphasised as it could be a trigger for violence. o o o o o o INEC should ensure that election personnel and logistics get to the remote areas on time. This will reduce the waiting period before accreditation and voting can commence. The traditional and social media houses should be professional in reporting. Campaign against political youth thug by all stakeholders emphasizing the demerits and consequences of such acts. Adequate welfare package and training of INEC staff and Ad-Hoc staff on the operation of the card readers will lead to peaceful conduct of the election. INEC should deploy more than one smart card reader in every polling unit so that if one fails the other can serve as back up. The Commission should guard against last minute switching of ad-hoc staff which hampers the smooth running of elections. 18

19 o Awareness creation by all electoral stakeholders at all levels on what is expected of the voters and the changes in the electoral process such as simultaneous accreditation and voting. CONCLUSION The Edo State governorship election comes up on 10 th September The aggregate data appear to suggest that the election will overall, be peaceful. However, when some questions are broken down and examined in the context of particular local governments, the picture that emerges is one that enables us to classify the potential for violence during the elections within certain locations. The fact that an LGA is classified as being of low risk does not in any way imply that election may not turn violent in such an area. As shown in Appendix Table A, there are many things that may be provocative to an electorate and these need not occur in an identified electoral flashpoint before it turns into a raging fire. Among these are voters feeling cheated if procedures are not properly followed, non-payment of workers, usage of politicians as ad hoc electoral staff, improper deployment of incumbency power, corruption among INEC staff, late arrival of voting materials at voting units, among others. The history of elections in the state may also provide some bearing here. In a sense, the electoral domains of some party chieftains as well as known party enforcers who have turned electoral violence into a business proposition. These election violence entrepreneurs are mostly to be found in urban areas. The ready availability of able-bodied young men and women who are very much idle may constitute a recruiting ground for desperate politicians who may insist on having their way at all costs in the forthcoming elections. What is to be done? RECOMMENDATIONS In identified areas with potential for violence or habitual violence, security agencies should act proactively by inviting the electoral violence entrepreneurs in these domains for pre-emptive chats. The security agencies should have intelligence units that monitor the behaviour of security agents deployed for election field work. Such units should be able to make reports real time and also get responses as the election is ongoing. Civil society observer teams should not just observe and report, but should have real time mechanism in place for connecting field observations to those who have the capacity to correct polling-unit error or intervening to put volatile situations under control. A conscious awareness, and constant reminders of electoral violence triggers on the part of INEC staff, security agencies and civil society organisations, with a view to nipping in the bud any these that raises its head. Special attention paid to ensure timely arrival of election materials and personnel, and timely commencement of the voting exercise. 19

20 APPENDICES Appendix A Responses by LGAs on one of the key questions during the EVMT field work Q. 70. On the whole, how do you think that this election will go? (A) very peaceful, (B) peaceful (C) undecided (D) violent (E) very violent. 20

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25 APPENDIX B Table 3: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree No response 2 5 Total From Table 3, it is clear that a preponderance of respondents is of the view that the election will be peaceful per cent expect the election to be peaceful. This stands in contrast to only 15.7 percent which does not agree with that conclusion. Table 4: Do you agree that there has been a history of electoral violence in this area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree No response

26 Table 4 suggests that 42.6 per cent of respondents feel that Edo state has a history of electoral violence. On the other hand, 34.1 per cent of respondents expressed disagreement with this position. The import of this is that a higher number of respondents may have experienced it in their area or heard about it in previous elections than those who may not have experienced in their close proximities. Table 5: Do you agree that hate speech can make election violent in this area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree No Response Total From Table 5, it is clear that hate speech is seriously frowned upon by most of the respondents as 70.3 per cent of them are of the view that it can lead to violence during election in their area. Those who do not agree with this position constitute only 18.9 percent of the respondents, with 10 per cent undecided about the issue. Table 6: Do you agree that inter-ethnic/religious/communal conflicts can cause election violence in this area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Agree No Response

27 Total In Table 6, 52.6 per cent of respondents express agreement with the position that ethnoreligious and communal conflicts can be the basis of election violence. This is not supported by 38.3 per cent of respondents. Only 7.7 per cent are undecided. Ethno-religious conflicts may not be endemic in the state, but a significant number of respondents feel that its dangers to the electoral process need be noted. Table 7: Do you agree that troublesome politicians, political parties, leaders and candidates could cause electoral violence in this area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agreed Undecided Strongly Disagree Disagree No response 5 1,3 Total At 73.9 per cent Table 7 clearly indicates that most respondents are of the view that electoral violence can emanate from the activities of troublesome politicians, political parties, leaders and candidates. Their presence in any part of the state should be a matter of concern. Table 8: Do you agree that attempt by illegal immigrants to participate in the electoral process could cause electoral violence in the area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree

28 Strongly Disagree No Response Unidentified Response Total Table 8 shows that 57.2 per cent of respondents feel that illegal immigrants who participate in the electoral proves can be a source of violence per cent do not share this view. However, what this draws attention to is the combustion inherent in the alleged practice of some politicians to import mercenaries from neighbouring states or countries to shore up their poll numbers or provide an illegal army. Table 9: Do you agree that citizens disaffection with government could result to electoral violence in this area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly disagree No Response Total From Table 9, 66.3 per cent of respondent see disaffection with a government as capable of generating violence. Only 19.4 percent of respondents do not share this position, although there are 11.4 per cent who are undecided on the issue. Table 10: Do you agree that widespread availability of hard drugs can bring about electoral violence in this area? Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree

29 Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree No Response Total Hard drugs usage, according to 74 per cent of respondents in Table 10 accounts for much of the electoral violence witnessed. Only 16.2 percent are not in agreement with this. Table 11: Do you agree that economic disaffections can cause electoral violence in this area? Response Frequency Per cent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree No Response Total In Table 11, 59.3 percent of respondents in Edo State believe that economic grievances can cause electoral violence. Only 23.2 percent do not see any connection between such grievances and violence during elections while 15.4 percent are not sure whether there is an impact one or the other. Perhaps, one may look at communities that feel marginalized or where there is some substantial arrears of salaries and wages calling for boycott of elections as protest against the entire system or the incumbent. An attempt to force the issue by some voters by going to the polls, or a party manufacturing votes from such communities may trigger very unpalatable consequences. Table 12: Do you agree that confusing electoral laws could bring about electoral violence in this area? 29

30 Response Frequency Percent Strongly Agree Agree Undecided Disagree Strongly Disagree No Response Unidentified Response Total From Table 12, 70 percent respondents identify confusing electoral laws as apotential cause of violence. Only 16.3 percent of the respondents disagree aor strongly disagree with this position. Table 13: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go? Response Frequency Percent Very Peaceful Peaceful Undecided Violent Very Violent No Response Total There are other notable factors which respondents see as either being inimical to peaceful conduct of polls or could trigger violence in elections in their areas. These include disenchantment with the electoral process (67.3%), exclusion and discrimination against ethnic minorities (64.1%); exclusion and discrimination against women (66.7%), exclusion and discrimination against the youth (79.0%); discrimination and exclusion against the elderly (61.2%). Others include discrimination against people living with disabilities (43.9%), discriminations against religious groups (58.5%), discrimination on the basis of sexuality (48.4%), intra- and inter party squabbles (67.3%), the behavior of INEC (40.4%), etc. 30

31 These are aggregate data for Edo State. However, examined in the context of the disposition of respondents in particular local governments to the peaceful conduct of the coming polls, it becomes clear that not all LGAs are seen as equally likely to experience peaceful polls. This issue is tackled in reference to two questions that were posed to respondents: 1. Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? 2. On the whole, how do you think that this election will go? 31

32 APPENDIX C PEACE OR VIOLENCE?: A COMPRATIVE ANALYSIS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREAS. EGOR There were 27 respondents t\o the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?. Six respondents strongly agreed that the election will be peaceful. Another 6 respondents agreed that the election will be peaceful. The undecided were only four. However, 11 respondents responded with disagree to the question. In other words, 44.4 percent expect the elections to be free. 40.7percent disagree. The analysis of responses by gender also indicates some disparities. While one male respondent strongly agree, five females took the same position. This was exactly reversed when it comes to the agree position where 5 male respondents and one female identified with the position. However, of the eleven who took the position of disagreement, 8 were males while three were females. On the question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?,, the responses seem to be much in congruence with the earlier question. The total of 10 respondents who think the election will be peaceful were split equally between males and females. More males (4) were undecided than females (1). When it comes to the perception that the election will be violent, males (7) in Egor displayed more fear of this outcome than females (3). However, one female took the position that the outlook is that of very violent. IKPOBA-OKHA There were 23 respondents to the question: Do you agree that election in this are will be peaceful? 21( or 91.3%) either strongly agree or agree that the election will be peaceful, There were 9 and 12 females and males respectively among this number. There was only one undecided case (male) and another one maler response that strongly disagreed. On the question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?, 20 out of 22 (91%) respondents anticipate peaceful or very peaceful elections. This number was made up of 8 females and 12 males, There was only one undecided case (male) and one response from a female who expect the election to be very violent. OREDO There were a total of 20 respondents in Oredo LGA to the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Twelve (60%) (7 females and 5 males) agree or strongly agree while 3 (all males) were undecided. There were 5 (25%) responses which fell into the disagreestrongly disagree spectrum. Four of these were males while only one was female. On the other hand, there were 21 respondents to the question: On the whole, how do you think this election will go? Of this only 8 or 40% (6 males and 2 females) expect the elections to be peaceful. Ten or 47.6 per cent (split equally between males and females) are undecided. Three (14.3%) responses expect the election to be either violent or very violent. Two of these are males while one is female. 32

33 ORHIONMWON In Orhionmwon LGA, there were 17 respondents. On the question: Do you think that election in this area will be peaceful? 3 respondents (1 male and 2 females) strongly agreed while 13 (7males, 6 females) agreed. In other words, 94.1% of respondents from the LGA are positive that the election will be peaceful. There is only one undecided case which was male. No respondent disagrees with the question. The question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go? drew 18 responses from this LGA. No respondent expects the election to be violent or very violent. Four respondents (3 males and 1 female) are undecided. However, 14(78%) responses (6 males and 8 females) felt that the elections will be peaceful or very peaceful. OVIA NORTH-EAST All the 25 respondents in Ovia North-East LGA were of the view that the election agree or strongly agree that the elections will be peaceful. This was made up of 17 males and 8 females. A more varied response pattern emerged when confronted with the question: On the whole, how do you think the election will go? Sixteen (69.6%), 10 males and 6 females, out of a total of 23 respondents felt that the election will be peaceful or very peaceful. Six respondents (all males) think it will be violent or very violent. There was one (female) undecided case. OVIA SOUTH-WEST There were 20 responses to the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?. While 4 (3males and 1 female) were undecided, 8 respondents split equally between males and females either agree or strongly agree. Eight respondents (equally split in gender terms) also disagree or strongly disagree. At 40% on both ways, the respondents from the LGA are equally divided on whether the elections will be peaceful or violent. This split was modified when the same respondents were asked the question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go? Ten (50%) respondents (4 females and 6 males) expect peaceful or very peaceful elections while 5 or 25 per cent (2 females and 3 males) expect the elections to be violent or very violent. The 5 undecided cases consist of 3 females and 2 males. UHUNMWODE There were 19 total responses to the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Fifteen (14 males, 1 female) or 79% agree or strongly agree with the question. Three (1 male and 2 females) were undecided while only while only one response (male) disagree. There were 18 respondents in respect of the question: On the whole, how do you think this election will go? Twelve or 66.7% (11 males, 1 female) of the respondents expect peaceful or very peaceful polls. Five (3 males and 2 females) are undecided while one (male) expect violence. 33

34 ESAN CENTRAL On the question of the election being peaceful, there were 20 respondents. Of this a total of 11 occupied the agree-strongly agree space. Six respondents were undecided while 3 strongly disagree. Gendered, 3 females strongly agreed as against 4 males, while the males and females who agree were 3and 1 respectively. The 6 undecided cases were equally split while 2 males strongly disagree as against one female who held a similar position. On the question how they think the election will go, 4 respondents, split equally between males and females were of the view that it will be very peaceful. Four other respondents also agreed that it will be peaceful. This was however in the proportion of one male to 3 females. The undecided cases were 3. However, 5 (4 males and 1 female) suggested that it will be violent, while another 3 respondents (2 males, 1 female) went further to suggest that it will be very violent. Thus, of the total 19 respondents, 8 (42%) were of the view that the election will be violent. ESAN NORTH EAST There were 20 respondents to the question whether this election will be peaceful in this LGA. Eight respondents (5 males and 3 females) strongly agree while another 8 split equally in gender terms agreed. Undecided were 3 while only one male disagreed. The optimism running through this local government was also apparent in the responses to the question on how they think the election will go. While 7 respondents consisting of 6 males and 1 female expect very peaceful elections, another 6 made up of equal number of males and females expected the election to be peaceful. Only one male feared that it will be very violent. 4 were undecided. ESAN SOUTH-EAST In all, there were 20 respondents on the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Eleven of these respondents (8 males and 3 females) strongly agree while one female respondent agreed. In other words, 60% of the respondents foresee a peaceful election. There were three cases of Disagree (all males) and one case (male) that strongly disagreed. There were four undecided respondents 3 of who were males and one, female. The anticipation of peaceful elections in Esan South-East is also quite pronounced. For twelve respondents, the election will either be peaceful or very peaceful. This is 66.7 per cent of out of the 18 respondents from the LGA. These 12 cases were made up of 4 females and three 8 males. The undecided cases were 4 (3 males and 1 female). Those respondents who anticipate violence are only 2 and both are males. ESAN WEST There were 21 respondents from this LGA out of which 5 strongly disagree and 6 agree. In other words, 11 (52.4%) respondents anticipate peaceful elections. Only 2 of this number are females. Males make up 9 of the figure, and only 2 are females. The undecided cases of 5 (23.8%) are all males while those who either strongly disagree or simply disagree are 5 (23.8%). Again, there were 21 respondents to the question: On the whole, how do you think this election will go? The 3 respondents who anticipate very peaceful elections are males while out of the 7 34

35 who expect them to be peaceful, 5 are males and 2 females. Eight (38%) are undecided. This is made up of one female and 7 males. One female expect the elections to be violent while 2 males expect the polls to be very violent. IGUEBEN There were 20 respondents from Igueben LGA. 12 (60%) of these expressed agreement or strong agreement with the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? 3 were undecided (2 females and 1male). However, 5 (20%) respondents either disagree or strongly disagree. This number consisted of 4 males and one female. On the question: On the whole, how do you think this election will go?, 9 (45%) respondents made up of 3 females and 6 males felt that it will be peaceful or very peaceful. Six (30%) were undecided (4 males and 2 females). 5 (25%) saw the election as likely to be violent or very violent. Four of these were males while 0ne was female. AKOKO EDO There were 20 respondents to the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful?. Sixteen or 80 per cent either agreed or strongly agreed. Only 3 were undecided while 1 strongly disagreed. When the data is disaggregated by gender, there were 9 females in respondents who agreed or strongly agree with the statement. The males were 7. The disagree category had one female. In all, there seems a general perception that the election will be peaceful. This conclusion seems to be supported by the pattern of responses to the question: On the whole, how do you think this election will go?. There were 19 respondents to this question. Of this total, 11 were females while 8 were males. Six females saw it as either peaceful or very peaceful. Seven males also saw it as coming out peaceful, or very peaceful While one respondent was undecided, no male respondent anticipate a violent election in the area. However, 2 female respondents do not rule out violence. ETSAKO WEST There were 22 respondents in Etsako West LGA. Out of these, there were 12 (54,5%) who either indicated agree or strongly agree to the question: do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? The gender spread here was uneven, with only 3 females in a total female count of 7. The undecided cases were fairly high at 5 (22.7%). The disagree and strongly disagree responses were 5 (22.7%), a number split between males and females in the proportion of 3 to 2. When it comes to the question On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?, 11 (50%) saw it as being very peaceful or peaceful. There was only one female in this number while the rest were 10. The Undecided were rather high at 9 or 41% (4 males and 5 females). Only 2 (1%) which was equally split between male and female responses foresee a very violent election. 35

36 ETSAKO CENTRAL There were 20 responses to the question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? Of this 18 (90%) either strongly agree or agree. There was only one undecided case who is male and one response, also male, who indicated disagree. There was only one female in the entire sample. The response to the question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?, 17 (85%) respondents either saw it as being peaceful or very peaceful. There was one female here for whom the election will be very peaceful. The remaining 3 cases were undecided. ETSAKO EAST Of 19 respondents, 14 (74%) agree or strongly agree that the election in the area will be peaceful. This number consisted of 4 females and 10 males, The undecided of 2 was wholly made up of males. The only 3 responses that indicated disagree or strongly disagree were also males. On the question how respondents think that this election will go?, 4 (3 males, 1 female) respondents were undecided while 3 (all males) expect the election to be violent. However, 12 (63%) respondents of who 3 are females expect the election to be peaceful or very peaceful. OWAN EAST In Owan East LGA, there were 20 (only one female) respondents to the question: Do you agree that election in this rea will be peaceful?. Out of this number, 16 or 80 per cent agree or strongly agree with the question. Undecided was only one while 3 or 15 per cent disagree or strongly disagree. Six respondents out of 20 were undecided when the question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?, The remaining 14 (13 males and 1 female) expect it to be peaceful or very peaceful. There is no expectation of violence from the point of view of respondents from this LGA. OWAN WEST The question: Do you agree that election in this area will be peaceful? had 2 responses with disagree and both were males. However, there were 18 (90%) out of a total of 20 who agree or strongly agree with the question. Of these positive responses, 7 are females while 11 are males. There were also 20 responses to the question: On the whole, how do you think that this election will go?. Six cases consisting of 4 males and 2 females were undecided. 2 male respondents anticipate violence. However, 12 (7 males and 5 females) respondents or 60 per cent of the total respondents are of the view that the elections will be peaceful or very peaceful. 36

37 APPENDIX D A Qualitative Analysis of Electoral Violence Triggers Issue Observed Challenges Local Government of Prevalence 1 Geographical Terrain 2 Nonadherence to Electoral process and Procedures 3 Population displacement and Communities with many entry and exit points are prone to violence Areas that are difficult to access can be taken advantage of by miscreants to cause havoc Government neglect of hard-toaccessible areas may lead to violent reactions against elections in general. Non-adherence to rules and procedures will lead to violence. Voters may feel cheated if procedures and processes are not properly adhered to. People are fed up with government because of non-adherence to procedures Non-adherence to procedure by a group can provoke another group to anger, leading to violence. When procedures are not followed, violence will follow Reported cases of migrants from other areas could pose a threat to elections. 37 Owan East, Owan West Akoko Edo especially the hilly and flood-prone areas Egor Owan West. Etsako West, Etsako,Esan North-East Orhionmwon Egor Igueben Esan South-East Akoko Edo Esan South-West Owan East Ovia South-West Egor Uhunmwode Igueben LGA owing to the incursion of

38 Movement If security people are unable to control movement of people on election day, it can lead to violence Strange people are tearing and defacing posters herders into Udo community. Akoko Edo owing to indigenesettler conflicts 4 Foreign Interests (including foreign Observers) Foreign observers are tired of our excesses. Bad people can be among the observers 5 Funding of Elections 6 Payment of Election workers The presence of foreign observers promote good behaviour on the part of voters. Violence can occur because a losing candidate will be considering the amount of money expended in the election Civil servants have not been paid for over 10 months, but the political party in power has money to spend to fund election. This can cause violence. Embezzlement of campaign funds could lead to violence Non-payment of workers will lead to rigging and violence. Non-payment of election workers can bring about compromise, which can in turn, trigger violence. Non-payment of electoral workers exposes them to temptation to accept bribes from political parties or their candidates. Past experience could lead electoral workers to demand their pay, and Egor Oredo Ikpoba Okha Ovia North-East Ikpoba Okha Esan West 38

39 7 Recruitment of INEC ad hoc staff 8 Power of incumbency 9 Proliferation of Small arms and light weapons this could lead to violence Recruitment of thugs loyal to a particular party can make them take sides which could lead to a violent resistance. Use of politicians as ad-hoc staff could provoke violence Use of incumbent power to dominate public for one party could incite violence from opposition Incumbency power could be used to influence electoral outcomes in favour one party. This could provoke violence. Incumbency power could be used to intimidate opposition party supporters. The widespread and open display of fire arms by party thugs and cultists could lead to violence Fire arms and light weapons could be used to scare voters away 39 Akoko Edo Esan Central Owan West, Oredo Esan North-East Ikpoba Okha Esan South-East Akoko Edo Esan West Ovia South-West Egor Uhunmwode Ovia North-East Esan Central Orhionmwon Oredo, Etsako Central, Etsako East, Ikpoba Okha Esan South-East Egor Ovia North-East Esan Central

40 10 Corruption among INEC officials 11 Reliability of Election Equipment 12 Inadequate Training and conduct of Security Agents 13 Inadequate Training and Conduct of Party Agents INEC officials could be bribed by desperate politicians to rig elections for certain parties. This could provoke violence Corruption could make some INEC staff not to be neutral Late delivery of election materials could provoke violence Inadequate training could make security agents to be partisan and this could lead to violent resistance Poor payment of security agents could predispose them to bribery and violence Poor training predisposes some party agents to electoral malpractice and violence. Orhionmwon Etsako East. Etsako west, Owan West,Esan North-East Akoko Edo Esan West Oredo Owan East Oredo Ovia South-West Esan West 14 INEC s Information Management 15 The Presence of Strong Opposition Poor sensitization could lead to manipulation of voters by electoral actors which could provoke violence. Strong opposition could lead to desperation to win election Ikpoba Okha Uhunmwode Uhunmwode Esan North-East Igueben 40