2016 Election, Partisan Views & Health Policy Robert J. Blendon, ScD

Transcription

1 2016 Election, Partisan Views & Health Policy Robert J. Blendon, ScD Richard L. Menschel Professor of Public Health & Senior Associate Dean for Policy Translation and Leadership Development Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health & Harvard Kennedy School

2 Where Partisan Divisions Are Largest (Excludes Health Care) Social safety net Environment* Labor unions Equal opportunity Gov t scope and perf Immigration* Pew Research Center 2012 Values Study. Bars show the differences between and across 15 values indices based on related survey questions. *Environment index began in 1992, immigration index in 2002.

3 How Has the ACA Impacted the Country? All 39% 44% 13% 66% 16% 14% Independents 36% 48% 12% 10% 72% 13% Pew Poll, April 12 19, 2016.

4 Public Opinion About Abortion, by Political Party Legal in all/most cases Registered voters % Registered Voters Illegal in all/most cases Pew Poll, March 2016.

5 Health Care in the 2016 General Election

6 Top Top Four Policy Issues in Upcoming 2016 Election Percent saying: Most important issue in presidential vote choice Economy & Jobs 32% Terrorism/National Security 29% Health Care 16% Immigration 8% CBS/NYT Poll, September 13, 2016.

7 Top 4 Most Urgent Health Problems Facing the Country Percent saying [item] is top problem Cost 22% Access 20% Obesity 15% Cancer 14% Gallup Poll, November 4 8, 2015.

8 Public Opinion on Obamacare Despite record low levels of uninsurance, the country remains divided on the Affordable Care Act. 47.0% 41.8% August 31, 2016 January 2009 Huffpost Pollster. Results averaged from multiple polling organizations between January 2009 and August 31, 2016.

9 How Has the ACA Impacted You? Percent saying Directly helped United States Florida Kansas New Jersey Ohio Oregon Texas Wisconsin Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health/Robert Wood Johnson Foundation/National Public Radio Poll, Patients Perspectives on Health Care in the United States, September 8 November 9, 2015.

10 Partisan Opinions of Next Steps for ACA What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? Expand what the law does Move forward with implementing the law as it is Scale back what the law does Repeal the entire law Total By Political Party Independents Note: None of these/something else (vol.) and Don t know/refused responses not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation Health Tracking Poll (conducted April 12 19, 2016.

11 Partisan Beliefs About a Public Option in the ACA Favor 54% All Oppose 36% Dk/Ref 10% Favor Oppose 20% 75% Dk/Ref 5% Favor 26% Oppose 60% Dk/Ref 13% Politico/Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, September 2016.

12 Responsibility of the Federal Government in Health Care Is it the responsibility of the federal government to ensure that all Americans have health coverage? All Yes - it is 50% 78% 16% All No - it is not 48% 20% 83% Pew Poll of registered voters, March 2016.

13 Role of the Federal Government in Health Care When it comes to making the health care system in America work well, do you think the federal government should play a major role, a minor role, or no role? Major role Minor role No role Total Independents Note: Don t know/refused answers not shown. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation/Robert Wood Johnson Foundation/Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, The Public s Health Care Agenda for the 113 th Congress (conducted January 3 9, 2013).

14 Responsibility for High Health Care Costs Who is to blame for the high costs of health care today? All Pharmaceutical Co Top 3 ranked as A lot 70% Health Insurance Co Federal Gov t Pharmaceutical Co 53% 60% 74% Health Insurance Co Hospitals Federal Gov t Pharmaceutical Co Health Insurance Co Politico/Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, September % 47% 64% 61% 68%

15 Perceived Seriousness of Income Inequality Do you think the gap between the rich and the poor is a very big problem, a moderately big problem, a small problem, or not a problem at all in our country? Pew Research Center 2014d, 2014e. Percent saying A very big problem Greece 84 Spain 74 Italy 73 France 60 Israel 57 South Korea 55 Russia 50 U.K. 47 U.S. 46 (59) (19) Poland 44 China 42 Germany 39 Japan 28

16 Realities of a Polarized America 2016 & 2018 Major changes in health policy only occur when one party holds the presidency and both houses of Congress. Some major changes occur when one party holds the presidency and one house of Congress. Only small incremental changes occur otherwise with the exception of a few nonpolarized issues.

17 Questions?