Immigration and the American Economy: Is Bad Policy Creating a Hostile Welcome?

Transcription

1 Immigration and the American Economy: Is Bad Policy Creating a Hostile Welcome? March 2005 B. Lindsay Lowell Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM) Georgetown University Tel: (202) , lowellbl@georgetown.edu Presentation at the roundtable series on "Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy, Thursday, March 17th, the Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.

2 Immigrant Share of S&E Employment Immigrant Share of Workforce Growth Immigrant Share of Workforce 50% 20% Share Decade Growth 40% 30% 20% 10% 15% 10% 5% Share of Workforce 0% % Source: Tabulations from US Census microdata

3 Immigrant Share of S&E Workers, 2000 Natural scientists 25.5% Engineering technicians 20.3% Engineers and surveyers 16.0% Math (and computer) scientists (excl programmers) 13.9% Science technicians 12.3% Social scientists 9.5% Source: US Census microdata

4 Earned doctoral degrees Ctizens by sex and Noncitizens total 12,000 10,000 8,000 Male Female 6,000 4,000 2, Non- Citizens, Total Source: NSF, S&E Indicators 2-26

5 Foreign Student Enrollment S&E Non S&E 600, , , , , , / / / / /04 Source: IEE Open Doors

6 Foreign Student Enrollments by Major S&E Field and for Business 125,000 Business & Management 100,000 75,000 Mathematics & Computer Sciences Engineering Social Sciences 50,000 Physical & Life Sciences 25,000 Source: IIE Open Doors 1999/ / / / /04

7 200,000 New H-1B Temporary Skilled Worker Visas & Petitions 150, ,000 50, Source: DHS Immigration Statistics

8 MANY ASSERT THAT THE UNITED STATES IS LESS HOSPITABLE in the aftermath of the terrorist tragedies of September 11th Outdated and overly bureaucratic immigration laws, the perception that the United States is less welcoming of foreigners, and heightened competition from foreign universities have lead to a decline of foreign nationals (AeA, Losing the Competitive Advantage?). What the latest numbers make clear is that the enrollment declines are now widespread and dramatic enough to seriously threaten the U.S. academic research enterprise (IEEE 2004). Historically, the US has benefited from both an abundant supply Analyses of current trends, however, indicate serious problems lie ahead that may threaten our long-term prosperity and national security (NSB 2004). the climate for creative talent in the United States has chilled as a result of direct policies which restrict scientific information and make it harder for people to get into and out of the country and a widening perception of the U.S. as less friendly toward foreign-born people (Florida 2004).

9 GETTING A STUDENT VISA VISA APPROVAL typically 1 day to two weeks depending on country VISA ISSUANCE ON RE-ENTRY from required re-approvals to one-year approval recently VISA TOTAL (ADJUSTED) REFUSAL RATE from ca. 21% in 1999 to 27% in 2002, now coming down SPECIAL SECURITY CLEARANCE Government Accountability Office (GAO) Spring 2003 report: Visas Mantis check took an average of 67 days 7,000 cases before 9/11 to nearly 20,000 after Visas denied being 2 percent of cases Note:. 234,000 F-1 visas issued in 2002 Winter 2005 report: Visas Mantis check took an average of 15 days

10 Index of Restrictive Immigrant Attitudes, 2004 Mexico United Kingdom Germany Italy France Spain United States Japan Canada Source: IPSIS poll

11 30% All Immigrants Having Faced Discrimination and Reporting Increased Discrimination Since 9/11 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Faced discrimination in housing, jobs and services Source: NPR/Kaiser Poll, Summer 2004 Faced discrimination by police Increased discrimination since 9/11

12 Re-entry Problems for NIH Postdoctoral Scholars, % 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% no travel outside USA no problems on re-entry minor problems on re-entry moderate problems on re-entry serious problems on re-entry Source: Sigma Xi

13 Figure 1. Percent of U.S. Recent Immigrants and non-eu Immigrants with Tertiary Education USA EU Percent of Immigrants Ages 15 to Sources: European Commission, 2003, chart 139; U.S. Census microdata.

14 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 S&E Doctoral Degrees, USA France, Germany, United Kingdom China, India, Japan, So Korea, Taiwan Source: NSF S&E Indicators 2004

15 Ranking of the Index of Controlled/Competitive Permanent Skilled Worker Programs Italy So. Africa, general permit So. Africa, quota permit Spain United States, EB 2,3,4 France New Zealand, work permit Average Norway Germany, work permit UK, innovators France, fast track New Zealand, priority UK, HSMP UK, work permit Canada Australia, economic stream Source: Lowell

16 Ranking of Index of Controlled/Competitive Temporary Skilled Worker Programs So. Africa, quota permit Spain Germany, green card Japan Germany, work permit Norway Italy France, fast track United States, H-1B New Zealand, work permit So. Africa, general permit France Canada, TFW Average UK, innovators New Zealand, priority UK, work permit Australia, business UK, HSMP Australia, economic stream Source: Lowell

17 Combined Index of Skilled Immigrant Competitiveness Australia Norway Canada United States United Kingdom New Zealand Sweden Italy Netherlands Switzerland Luxemborg Average Spain Denmark Japan Greece Ireland Austria Finland Belgium Germany Portugal France Source: Lowell 2005

18 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking, 2004 (1) USA 1 (4) SINGAPORE 2 (6) CANADA 3 (7) AUSTRALIA 4 (8) ICELAND 5 (10) HONG KONG 6 (5) DENMARK 7 (3) FINLAND 8 (2) LUXEMBOURG 9 (11) IRELAND 10 (12) SWEDEN 11 (17) TAIWAN 12 (14) AUSTRIA 13 (9) SWITZERLAND 14 (13) NETHERLANDS 15 (21) MALAYSIA 16 (15) NORWAY 17 (16) NEW ZEALAND 18 (38) ZHEJIANG 19 (31) BAVARIA 20 (20) GERMANY 21 (19) UNITED KINGDOM 22 (25) JAPAN 23 (29) CHINA MAINLAND 24 Source: IMD