Are Democratic Governments Up to Meeting 21st-Century Challenges?

Transcription

1 Are Democratic Governments Up to Meeting 21st-Century Challenges? Speakers: Moderator: Evan Bayh Gary Becker William Bennett Ronnie C. Chan Michael Klowden Monday, May 2, 211 5:15 PM - 6:15 PM

2 Democracy: The worst except Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time. Source: Churchill Centre and Museum at the Churchill War Rooms, London. - Winston Churchill

3 Number of countries (population > 5,) Rise of democracies Global trends in governance, Source: Polity IV Project. Democracies Anocracies Autocracies End of World War II Dissolution of Soviet Union

4 More democracies on the way? Political unrest in the MENA region, 211 Source: United Nations.

5 Democracy: Good for doing business? Ease of doing business ranking, 211* * Countries without Polity2 scores in 29 are excluded. Average score of democracy 1 to to to to to Sources: Polity IV Project, World Bank Doing Business 211, Milken Institute.

6 Democracy: Luxury for poor countries? Type* Democracies Anocracies Autocracies GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) Year 29 16,189.5aaaaaa 5,45.aaaaaa 15,988.6aaaaaa * Countries without Polity2 scores in 29 are excluded. Sources: Associated Press, Polity IV Project, World Bank World Development Indicator 211, Milken Institute.

7 Democracy = good governance? Worldwide Governance Indicators 29, percentile rank (-) Country Voice and Political Government Regulatory Rule of law Control of accountability stability effectiveness quality corruption Brazil Russia India China The only distinction between democracies and non-democracies? Source: World Bank Group.

8 Government effectiveness and GDP growth China, Score Government effectiveness (L) GDP growth (R) Percent Source: World Bank Group.

9 Did the U.S. economy perform better under same-party control? U.S. real GDP growth, Percent Real GDP growth Growth relative to the rest of the world Clinton G.W. Bush Obama Carter Sources: USDA, Milken Institute.

10 Is direct democracy the culprit behind California s staggering deficit? General fund ending balance, California US$ billions Proposition 13 passed in Source: California Department of Finance.

11 Belgium: Functioning with a dysfunctional federal government? General government gross debt (percent of GDP) Percent Mark Eyskens Yves Leterme (1 st term) Yves Leterme (2 nd term) Sources: IMF WEO Databse 211. Wilfried Martens (2 nd time) Jean-Luc Dehaene Guy Verhofstadt Herman Van Rompuy

12 Autocracy Anocracy Democracy Chicken and egg: Political reform and economic takeoff Cases of Taiwan and South Korea Score Sources: Polity IV Project and USDA. Polity2 (L) Taiwan Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average (R) South Korea Percent

13 Autocracy Anocracy Democracy Chicken and egg: Political reform and economic takeoff Cases of Argentina and Brazil Polity2 (L) Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average (R) Sources: Polity IV Project and USDA. Argentina Score Brazil Percent

14 Did dictatorship facilitate Chile s economic takeoff? Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average Percent 8 Pinochet's rule Source: USDA.

15 Turkish economic expansion under AK Real GDP growth rate, 3-year moving average Percent 8 6 Justice and Development (AK) Party won general election Source: USDA.

16 Global investment in infrastructure 28 vs. 23 Selected countries, 25 constant prices US$ billions China U.S. India Japan U.K. Germany Brazil Source: McKinsey Global Institute; McKinsey Global Economic Growth Database. Percent of GDP China U.S. India Japan U.K. Germany Brazil

17 General government gross debt Percent of GDP Percent 3 25 Projection Japan United States China E.U. India Source: IMF WEO Database 211.

18 Population aged 65 or over Percent of total population Percent 4 35 Projection Japan Europe India China United States Source: U.N. World Population Prospects: The 28 Revision.

19 Income inequality around the world Gini coefficient: measure of income dispersion < >.6 No data Source: CIA World Factbook 29, Wikipedia.

20 Ethnic and religious divides wreaked havoc in democratic Kenya Ethnicity Religion Kamba 13.5% Kisii 7.6% Mijikenda 6.6% Kikuyu 22.8% Traditional African religions 5.% Muslim 11.2% Hindu, Sikh, Baha'i and Jewish 1.% Kalenjin 17.3% Luo 13.8% Luhya 18.3% Christian 82.8% Source: U.S. Department of State.

21 Will China s ethnic diversity pose challenges to its goal of social harmony? Chinese Tai Turkic Burmic Manchu-Tungus Tibetan Mongolian Hmong-Mien Korean Mon-Khmer Tajik Bai Tujia Sparsely populated Uninhabited Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc.

22 Shift from West to East Gross domestic product, PPP, Percent Western countries Japan China Source: IMF WEO database 211.

23 Number of countries (population > 5,) Rise of democracies Source: Polity IV Project.

24 Source: U.S. House of Representatives website.

25 International Benchmark of Educational Attainment 29 OECD Scores of 15-year-olds Score Source: OECD PISA, 29 Top 5 Ranking Countries Mathematics Literacy Rank Shanghai-China Singapore Hong Kong-China Korea Chinese Taipei Science Literacy Score Rank Mathematics Literacy Score Rank OECD Average Top 5 Ranking Countries Finland Liechtenstein Switzerland Japan Canada Netherlands Macao-China New Zealand Belgium Australia Germany Estonia Iceland Denmark Slovenia Norway France Slovak Republic Austria Poland Sweden Czech Republic United Kingdom Hungary Luxembourg UNITED STATES Ireland Portugal Science Literacy Score Rank

26 Percent of Students Proficient in Math: PISA 26