FROM CRIME TO CRIME STATISTICS AND CRIME STATISTICS TO CRIME INTELLIGENCE

Transcription

1 FROM CRIME TO CRIME STATISTICS AND CRIME STATISTICS TO CRIME INTELLIGENCE FIGHTING THE CRIME WITH STATISTICS AND NOT FIGHTING THE STATISTICS. CHRIS DE KOCK - INDEPENDENT CONSULTANT/ANALYST: CRIME, VIOLENCE AND CROWD BEHAVIOUR.

2 CRIME INCIDENT OCCUR Ø A CRIME INCIDENT OCCUR DURING WHICH ONE OR VARIOUS SERIOUS CRIMES WERE COMMITTED. Ø EXAMPLES: (A) HOUSE ROBBERY DURING WHICH ONE PERSON IS MURDERED AND ANOTHER VICTIM RAPED. (B) A VICTIM IS RAPED BY A FRIEND. (C) A FATHER SHOT HIS EX-WIFE AND TWO CHILDREN AND THEN HIMSELF.

3 CRIME REPORTING SOME CRIME INCIDENTS OR SOME OF THE CRIMES OCCURRING DURING INCIDENTS MAY NOT BE REPORTED TO THE POLICE. THERE ARE MANY REASONS FOR THIS, INTER ALIA : DON T THINK THAT ANYTHING CAN BE DONE. NOT WORTH WHILE-CRIME/LOSS NOT SO SIGNIFICANT. DON T TRUST THE POLICE THEY ARE IN CAHOOTS WITH CRIMINALS ON PREVIOUS OCCASION/S THEY DID NOTHING ACCORDING TO OTHERS THEY ARE USELESS. FAMILY/PEER PRESSURE/FEAR OF REJECTION. PERPETRATOR RECONCILE WITH VICTIM /PAY DAMAGES

4 CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS. (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM-CAS) (A) REPORTING TO POLICE THE POLICE MAY TRY TO CONVINCE VICTIM THAT NO CRIME OCCURRED OR THAT EVEN IF A CRIME OCCURRED THAT IT IS JUST NOT WORTHWHILE TO LAY A COMPLAINT OR THAT IT IS DANGEROUS TO OPEN A DOCKET. THEY MAY GO SO FAR AS TO MEDIATE BETWEEN VICTIM AND PERPETRATOR. IF VICTIM PERSIST THEY MAY OPEN A DUMMY" DOCKET, CRIME CARD OR JUST REGISTER IT IN THE INCIDENT BOOK (I.B.) AND PROVIDE THAT NUMBER TO THE VICTIM.

5 CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM-CAS) (B)OPENING OF DOCKET POLICE TAKE A STATEMENT. THEY SHOULD TAKE IT AS DETAILED AS POSSIBLE TO GET ALL THE ELEMENTS OF CRIME (USING THEIR KNOWLEDGE OF COMMON LAW AND THE DEFINITIONS OF CRIME). THEY LIST ALL THE CRIMES THAT OCCURRED ACCORDING TO THE STATEMENT ON THE FRONT PAGE OF THE DOCKET. THEY SHOULD ALSO APPLY THE COUNTING RULES TO DETERMINE HOW MANY COUNTS OF EACH CRIME LISTED WERE COMMITTED AND

6 CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM CAS) (C) REGISTRATION OF DOCKET ON CAS THE SPECIFIC CRIMES MENTIONED ON THE DOCKET COVER AND THE NUMBER OF COUNTS FOR EACH CRIME WILL NOW BE ENTERED ON THE COMPUTER BY A STAFF MEMBER. THE CASE IS NOW REGISTERED IN THE CAS COMPUTER WHICH ALSO ALLOCATE A SPECIFIC SEQUENCE CAS NUMBER WHICH BECOME THE DOCKET NUMBER. THE SPECIFIC CRIME MENTIONED ON THE DOCKET COVER AS WELL AS THE COUNTS OF

7 CRIME REGISTRATION ON POLICE SYSTEMS (CRIME ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM) (D) ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CAS SOME OF THE INFORMATION ON THE CASE DOCKET WILL ALSO BE ENTERED ONTO CAS. THIS INCLUDE: Ø ADDRESS OF CRIME (WHICH WILL ALSO APPEAR ON THE GIS). Ø TIME OF OCCURRENCE OF CRIME. Ø VICTIM INFORMATION WHICH INTER ALIA INCLUDE GENDER, AGE, AND RACE. Ø PERPETRATOR INFORMATION (IF KNOWN). Ø INSTRUMENT USED. Ø A SHORT BUT DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF HOW

8 SO WHAT IS NOW ELECTRONICALLY AVAILABLE? CRIME STATISTICS WHEN STATISTICS IS REQUESTED CAS COUNT EACH COUNT OF EACH CRIME AND PROVIDE THE NUMBER OF COUNTS FOR THAT CRIME PER POLICE STATION. POLICE STATIONS IN A CLUSTER COUNT UP TO CLUSTER STATISTICS AND CLUSTER STATISTICS COUNT UP TO PROVINCIALSTATISTITS WHICH AGAIN COUNT UP TO NATIONAL STATISTICS. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CRIME ON GIS(GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION). SOME INFORMATION BEHIND EACH DOT(ICON) ON THE CRIME MAP. AS RESEARCHERS / ANALYSTS WE WOULD HAVE

9 OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT STATION LEVEL (AS IT SHOULD BE DONE ) CHECKING OF CAS REGISTRATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (INCLUDING GIS). SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME. TO IDENTIFY HOTSPOTS. MATRIX LINKAGE ANALYSIS.TO IDENTIFY PEAK TIMES,M.O. USED,COMMONALITIES, THE ROOTS OF PROFILES AND SOME EXPLANATION. FIELDWORK (VISITING HOTSPOTS AT PEAK TIMES) TO GATHER EXPLANATIONS.

10 OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT CLUSTER LEVEL (AS IT SHOULD BE DONE ) MONITOR CRIME DISPLACEMENTS OVER STATION BOUNDARIES IN A CLUS CHECKING LINKAGES IDENTIFIED BY STATIONS AND ESTABLISH IF THEY L UP AT CLUSTER LEVEL. THIS BECOME THE COLLECTION PLAN FOR NETWO OPERATIONS. DOING CLUSTER CRIME ASSESMENTS.

11 THE IMPORTANCE OF OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS. HOUR TO HOUR POLICING BASED ON HOTSPOTS, PEAK TIMES ETC. WITHOUT THIS EFFECTIVE POLICING IMPOSSIBLE. SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL CRIME PREVENTION. INVESTIGATION (PREVENTION CAN MAKE INVESTIGATION MORE FOCUSED AND CLUSTER CASES FOR ALLOCATION). COLLECTION PLAN FOR AT LEAST NETWORK OPERATIONS BASED ON OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS. ENSURE DATA QUALITY (CORRECTNESS AND COMPLETENESS ) ORKIN

12 THE STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CRIME. SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN THE POLICE AND OUTSIDE.(SLIDE ONE) DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO CRIME RESEARCH: Ø STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND DESCRIPTION. Ø DOCKET ANALYSIS. Ø QUALITATIVE INTERVIEWING OF VICTIMS, PERPETRATORS, AND LAW ENFORCERS. Ø VICTIM SURVEYS (INSIDE AND OUTSIDE)

13 THE STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CRIME. SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN THE POLICE AND OUTSIDE.(SLIDE TWO) MULTI-VARIATE ANALYSIS OF CRIMES (DEPENDENT VARIABLE) AND DEMOGRAPHIC, POLICING, SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES (INDEPENDENT / EXPLANATORY VARIABLES). GIS ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS.

14 OTHER NOTES. OPENNESS BECAUSE THIS IS PUBLIC INFORMATION GENERATED BY THE PUBLIC FOR ANALYSIS BY THOSE WHO ARE PAID TO CREATE A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF CRIME SO THAT ALL THOSE INVOLVE IN CRIME COMBATTING CAN PREVENT AND INVESTIGATE IT MORE EFFECTIVELY.

15 THANK YOU