BY ZAFIRIS TZANNATOS*
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1 EMPLOYMENT CREATION, POVERTY REDUCTION AND SOCIAL INTEGRATION IN THE ARAB WORLD: THE UNFINISHED AGENDA BY ZAFIRIS TZANNATOS* PRESENTED AT THE EXPERT GROUP MEETING PROTECTING ARAB FAMILY FROM POVERTY: EMPLOYMENT, SOCIAL INTEGRATION AND INTERGENERATIONAL SOLIDARITY DOHA/QATAR 2-3 JUNE 2013
2 Context 1980s : The lost decade Low oil prices, fiscal stress, old social contract reached its limits 1990s (depending on the country) <ll late 2000s: Arab renaissance under Economic reforms first, poliycal later Rapid (but uncriycal) trade liberalizayon Financial deregulayon (its effects are now known at least since 2008) PrivaYzaYon (or denayonalizayon?) Fiscal consolidayon (eg food/ energy etc subsidies, rolling back of social protecyon, reducyon in public services) FDI but in areas with low social returns No healthy bounce back of the private sector, including low rates of investment Lack of transparency, uneven playing field and opportuniyes Lidle trickle down (shares of wages/consumpyon in GDP significantly reduced) 2
3 Intra- regional diversity and aggrega<on Common classifica<ons High income low income Oil- based resource poor Labor sending, labor receiving, labor sending and receiving Secular or not Also differences with respect to land, populayon size, urbanizayon, water, educayon MENA includes Iran, regional averages are typically populayon weighted A beeer way of looking at the region? Ø Exclude Iran from the Arab region Ø Simpler grouping of Arab states: Maghreb Mashreq GCC Ø Use unweighted country averages for the region (not populayon weighted esymates that unduly affect averages, for example, by including Saudi Arabia in the GCC or Egypt in the Middle East and/ or North Africa) Doing so dispels a few myths 3
4 Myth 1: Economic growth was jobless Employment- output elasycity, Yemen Syria Middle East Jordan Lebanon Algeria Egypt North Africa Tunisia Morocco Libya Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE GCC Oman Kuwait Bahrain Philippines Mongolia India Thailand Korea republic Asia Malaysia Indonesia Sri Lanka Viet Nam China 4
5 Myth 2: Too many people Labor force trends, 1990s s 5
6 Myth 3: Too many youth RaYo of youth- to- adult populayon Middle East- GCC North Africa GCC World- MENA Youtn/Adult Popula<on (%)
7 Myth 4: Unemployment did not decline (it did so for most countries, though unequally) % change in total unemployment rate by country, region and sex, GCC 7
8 Myth 5: Too many unemployed youth: (too many unemployed adults) RaYo of youth- to- adult unemployment over Yme 8
9 Surely youth unemployment is high but declined substan<ally compared to adult unemployment Ratio (%) of youth to adult unemployed (Average ) Youth Unemployment Rate Males Females GCC North Africa Middle East excl. GCC Source: ILO (2012), Global Employment Trends Youth Unemployment 2013 in Greece 62% Spain 56% Italy, Portugal, Ireland 34-36% France 26% 9
10 Youth Unemployment Rate by Gender (%), 2010 (mainly because of female unemployment) 10
11 The economy 11
12 Following the reforms of the 1990s, economic growth accelerated (though it remained low compared to other regions and therefore per capita incomes increased only slowly ) 8.8 GDP average annual rate of growth (%), East Asia South Asia SSA C/SEE (non- EU) & CIS SAEP GCC Middle Middle East East excl. GCC Arab States North Africa LAC 12
13 Economic growth was low because of: Clubby privayzayon with quick returns to a few (but low social returns) Stagnant investment rates Low compeyyon, no even playing field Low rate of new firm creayon Constraint access to land Many other policy- induced impediments 13
14 Stagnant private investment rates Private investment as % of GDP 14
15 Constrained access to land % o investors stayng land as a severe constraint 15
16 Low compe<<on/few dominant firms Median number of local compeytors in industry 16
17 Low rate of new firm crea<on Median age of manufacturing firms 17
18 Probability of finding a given constraint to investment Business, investment and enterprise Surveys, MENA 2000s Tax Rates Cost of Finance Access to Finance Macro Instability Tax AdminstraYon Informality Access to Land CorrupYon Skills 18
19 Low produc<vity growth Average annual producyvity growth (%),
20 Employment crea<on in low produc<vity sectors Components of labor producyvity growth
21 What does this kind of economy imply for employment? No decent employment 21
22 In rela<on to income, high rates of labor absorp<on in agriculture Annual growth by country per capita income 22
23 Employment crea<on was not formal Changes in the rates of informal employment and unemployment in Algeria, Share of informal employment Unemployment rate
24 Ra<o of Na<onal/Migrant Workers, GCC (Index 100=1975) 24
25 Even in Jordan, na<onal economic policies did not benefit much the na<onals Employment growth (number), Public Sector 125,196 Private Sector 190,150 Other Sectors -3,139 Total Jordanians 312,206 Total Non-Jordanians 225,128 Note: Non- Jordanians include only those with official work permits (e.g. the figures exclude domesyc workers and undocumented migrants) 25
26 Educa<on and Skills Is it high reservayon wages of job seekers or low wages paid by employers? Is it mismatch between educayon and work requirements? Is it because inequality of educayon opportuniyes? Is it because there are no skills or because there is not demand for skills? Why the educated are unemployed, enjoy a low wage premium and emigrate? 26
27 % of employers repor<ng inadequately educated workforce 12% or more in Germany, Switzerland, Austria 14% in the GCC 9% in other oil- producing MENA economies 5% in Tunisia and Egypt 3% in Lebanon Source: World Economic Forum
28 If there were demand for skills, the firms would provide training: In MENA they do not 28
29 SYll there are three areas where educayon can and should increase 29
30 1. Educa<on achievement should be increased 30
31 2. Inequality of educa<on opportunity should decrease Difference in science scores between students from the lowest and highest quin<les TIMSS 2007 Source: Djavad Salehi- Isfahani, Nadia Belhaj- Hassine and Ragui Assaad (2012), Equality of Opportunity in EducaYon in the Middle East and North Africa. Economic Research Forum. Cairo 31
32 3. Educa<on of managers should increase, too! % of managers who have not completed secondary educayon 32
33 The social side Human development and social protecyon 33
34 Despite increasing employment and employment- to- popula<on rates, the share of wages in GDP in the Arab region declined fastest 120 Change in wage shares as % of GDP (index=100 in 1996) 110 per cent of GDP LaYn America Asia CEE and Central Asia Africa Middle east North Africa
35 Similarly, household consump<on declined as % of GDP 75 Household consump<on as % of GDP by region, ) Household final consump<on expenditure, etc. (% of GDP) LaYn America East Asia MENA SSA OECD South Asia 40 In some ways, the figure is in line with the observayon that micro surveys in the region are not properly sampled 35
36 In MENA unemployment rates do not decline as household income increases Spread of unemployment rates by income quinyles, 2000s Poorest 20% Richest 20% 36
37 Before the financial crisis and the Arab Spring, few Arab countries provided unemployment benefits % of unemployed receiving unemployment benefit, latest available year Western Europe 68% North America 37% CIS 26% Central & Eastern Europe 24% World Asia 11% 15% Non- contributory Contributory LAC 6% Arab States 2% Africa 1%
38 Low social protec<on (and increasingly priva<zed) % of informal workers covered by social protecyon 38
39 Human Development Index 9 23 GNI per capita rank minus HDI rank in the Arab region, Despite gains, all but three Arab countries score less on the HDI compared to per capita income 39
40 The poliycal economy side 40
41 Low public accountability, 2000s Index, 100 = high High Income La<n America East Europe & Central Asia East Asia South Asia Sub- Saharan Africa MENA 41
42 Voice and accountability declining over <me 42
43 Ini<al protests were suppressed but kept coming back with added force 43
44 Ci<zens pessimism was on the rise Change in expectayons about standard of living SSA MENA LAC East Asia, SEAP South Asia 44
45 Ci<zens in Arab Countries Have Seen Slow Increases in Incomes and Have Had Low Voice CHN BLR AGO KAZ ARM You want to be here High: Income Growth Voice and Accountability KHM BTN GEO MNG VNM NGA MOZ IND TJK SLE LAO RWA ETH MDA UKR LTU RUS TCD MDV TZA ALB BGR TTO PAN CPV SVK LKA BGD ROM LVA EST AFG PERSTP THA POL MAR IDN GHA KOR JOR UGALBN TMP SRB ARG SUR HKG TWN IRN SGPTUR ZMBBIH DOM URY TUN KGZ QAT MLI MNE BWA MUS ECU BFA COL NAM SAM CZE MYS PHL CHL EGY COG NPL HRV BRA SVN OMN PAK NER PRY GUY MKD ZAF CRI VCT HUN ALG MWI BOL PNG SWE LBY ZAR SYR DJI MRT HNDSEN KEN LSO ISR DMA FIN GRC GMB SLV SLB ATG LCA AUS LUX SWZ VEN GRD IRQ SYC CYP MLT NZL DEU NIC BLZ AUT ISL GTM MEX BEN VUT BRBGBRBEL CAN CHE KSA BDI TON YEM ESP GIN FJI BHR JPN USA FRA NLD NOR CMRGAB KWT IRL JAM DNK GNB KNA UAE PRT TGO MDG COM ITA KIR BHS CAF HTI BRN But not here Even here Voice and Accountability-KKZ Index
46 Prospects 46
47 Low future economic growth, almost half of what would be required to reduce unemployment Projected annual GDP growth (%) Yll
48 There is s<ll a lot of slack 34% youth inacyvity rate (excl. students and migrants) 24% male and 45% female Female labor force parycipayon rate 26 % (world average 51%) Regional male rate on par with world average Unemployment has increased since 2010 It usually takes years to reduce unemployment 48
49 How long does it take to bring unemployment down to pre- crisis levels? Time taken for youth employment to recover from earlier crises, in years Panel A. AEained pre- crisis lows Panel B. Have yet to aeain the pre- crisis lows 35 Years years 17 years Greece (1992) Australia (1990) France (1992) Denmark (1987) UK (1990) Philippines (1997) Germany (1980) Italy (1992) ArgenYna (1999) Mexico (1995) Spain (1978) Norway (1988) Finland (1990) New Zealand (1986) Japan (1993) Indonesia (1997) South Korea (1997) Sweden (1990) Thailand (1997) 49
50 Summary 1. Growth has been slower than other developing regions Growth focused on low- value added service acyviyes resulyng in poor producyvity growth and an increase in informal sector employment 2. Growth and increased employment were not matched with increasing shares of wages and household consumpyon hence poverty did not decline significantly despite stagnayng inequality 3. Poorly designed social protecyon and the rolling back of the state from the social sectors increased insecurity, while adult unemployment proved to be more resilient than the more visible youth unemployment. End Result: greater expecta<ons (par<cularly among youth) and increasing sense of insecurity in the presence of weak ci<zen voice and low Government accountability 50
51 Policies General policy direc<ons Economic policies Macro, fiscal, industrial, trade, finance, investment, compeyyon, business Need transparency, level playing field in the private sector and accommodayng policy effects on the social sectors PromoYon of parycipatory and inclusive dialogue perhaps one of the biggest gaps compared to other regions Social protecyon move away from expensive benefits for public and private formal sector workers, insiders etc; examine distribuyonal impacts of policies e.g. untargeted subsidies unemployment insurance, maternity benefits, old age pensions Specific policies Improved migrayon management Beder design employment policies Increase educayon quality and reduced inequality in opportunity Beder staysycs, effecyve monitoring and evaluayon of policies 51
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