Asia Sourcing Update. Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam August 2013 FUNG BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE CENTRE IN THIS ISSUE:

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1 FUNG BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE CENTRE Asia Sourcing Update Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam August 2013 IN THIS ISSUE: I. In the News II. Major Economic Indicators III. Daily Exchange Rates IV. Appendix Thailand Exports put downward pressure on the country s growth Textile manufacturers are urged to invest abroad Thailand-EU FTA may come at a cost Vietnam Requirements for Preferential Customs Treatment Lowered Garment exports grew 14.5% yoy in 1H13 Garments added to US government forced labor list Cambodia Exports of garments and footwear grew by 19.6% yoy in 1H13 Deteriorating factory conditions draw attention to its apparel industry MUJI commits to an eco-friendly dyeing plant in the country The Philippines Export growth rebounded in June Garment sector regains US buyers The country lagged behind other ASEAN countries in attracting FDI last year Indonesia Rupiah depreciated to new low Changes to export administration proposed Another wage hike in the works for 2014

2 Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam In the News Cambodia: Exports of garments and footwear grew by 19.6% yoy in 1H13 The country s exports of garment, textiles and footwear witnessed a 19.6% yoy increase to US$2.51 billion in 1H13, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. The rapid growth is mainly attributed to an increase in investment in the sector and the economic recovery of Cambodia s major export markets such as the US and the EU. Data showed that shipments to the EU, which grants trade preferences to Cambodia under the Everything But Arms (EBA) initiative, is catching up with those to the US, the largest importer of Cambodia s garment and footwear products. In 1H13, exports of garment, textiles and footwear to the EU grew 27% yoy to US$0.86 billion, while exports to the US rose 10% yoy to US$1.02 billion. Exports of garment, textiles and footwear to other countries increased 10% to US$0.63 billion. Cambodia s booming garment sector, however, is not without challenge. Two factory accidents were reported in May, killing two workers and injuring 31. Frequent protests and strikes are also posing threat to the industry. In May, hundreds of angry workers protested at a factory that produces clothing for the US sportswear company Nike, clashing with the police over their demand for higher pay. Cambodia: Deteriorating factory conditions draw attention to its apparel industry A report released in June by the International Labor Organization s Better Factories Cambodia (BFC) programme finds that improvements in working conditions have stalled. Compared to previous BFC reports indicating steady progress from 2005 to 2011, the conditions have actually deteriorated. While the report notes some improvements in employee entitlement payments, the ongoing non-compliance in the areas of worker health and safety, fire safety and child-labor remain a concern. The secretary-general of the Cambodian Garment Manufacturers Association (GMAC) pointed out that most of the increased noncompliance figures were from new factories, which comprise 26% of all factories covered in the report. This suggests that some of the deterioration may be attributed to the rapid growth of the country s apparel industry, with the number of export factories increasing by 8% to 412 between November 2012 and April The BFC program is funded by the Cambodian government, the GMAC, the World Bank, the US Department of Labor and the AusAid. It also generates income by selling its monitoring reports and services to global brands/retailers. Cambodia: MUJI commits to an eco-friendly dyeing plant in the country Japanese lifestyle brand MUJI, with 600 stores across Asia, Europe and North America, has announced a plan to develop an eco-friendly dyeing and sewing towel plant in Cambodia. The 2,000-square-meter facility will provide over 300 local jobs by MUJI also plans to grow the indigo plant a tropical plant that produces a dark blue dye around the facility to generate another 50 jobs and develop a new line of natural indigo dye products in the near future. The plan is part of MUJI s commitment to the Business Call to Action (BCtA), a global initiative aimed at supporting private sector s efforts to fight poverty through core business operations. On top of that, MUJI is also going to increase the number of its Cambodian suppliers and source more of its products from the country. Indonesia: Rupiah depreciated to new low The rupiah closed at 10,297 against the US dollar on 14 August, hitting the lowest level in more than four years. The currency s depreciation of 6.5% against the US dollar from 2

3 Asia Sourcing Update August 2013 the beginning of the year reflects not only investors response to announcement of stimulus reduction by the US Federal Reserve, but also weaknesses in Indonesia s economic fundamentals. The country is experiencing persistent twin deficits in the current account and the state budget. While latest official balance of payment data will not be released until 16 August, the central bank has already indicated that the current account deficit in 2Q13 widened to 3.5% of GDP from 2.4% in 1Q13. At the same time, with the price of subsidized gasoline 44% higher at 6,500 rupiah (US$0.64) a liter and the price of diesel 22% higher at 5,500 rupiah (US$0.54) a liter starting 22 June, inflation rose 8.6% yoy in July after a 5.9% yoy increase in June. To curb inflation and stabilize the exchange rate, the central bank increased its overnight benchmark rate (the BI rate) twice, in June and in July, by a total of 75 basis points to 6.50%. Indonesia: Changes to export administration proposed The government plans to switch the export administration system from Freight on Board (FOB) to Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) starting 1 August. The new policy aims to promote national shipping companies and relevant industries such as banking and insurance, so as to produce more jobs in the service sector. The rationale behind this policy is that if exporters rather than importers are responsible for insurance and freight, more services provided by local companies will be purchased. Besides, according to the Indonesian Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan, by swelling the export value, it is hoped that the CIF method can help reduce or even eliminate the country s trade deficit. Details on the new policy are scant. It is believed that the CIF system would be implemented first on exports of commodities and mining products such as coal. Indonesia: Another wage hike in the works for 2014 As the cost of living has gone up rapidly in the last few months, another minimum wage hike for 2014 is now in the pipeline. This is expected to put further significant pressure on the business sector after substantial increases in 2013 were implemented in key regions with high concentrations of labor-intensive industries, including Jakarta (up 44%) and West Java (up 25% on average). These are the largest reported minimum wage increases in over a decade. (See Appendix for Indonesia s latest provincial minimum wage levels.) Factories throughout the country have felt a negative impact from having to pay their workers an increased salary, and companies in Indonesia s garment manufacturing capital of West Java have reported declines in profits of up to 40% since the last minimum wage hike. In view of the adverse impact on industry, 949 companies have applied for government exemptions to avoid complying with the 2013 increase. According to the Ministry of Manpower, a total of 489 companies have received approval, 120 companies have been declined and the remaining 340 are still in process. In Indonesia, the minimum wage is determined by negotiations in a tripartite forum between labor unions, employers and local governments. The business community in Indonesia often protests against the local government s tendency to favor the side of the workers in an attempt to gain popularity and win votes, but there are indications that this time the government wishes to cap the increase at 20% much lower than the 50% that Indonesia s two biggest unions are demanding. With a presidential election in 2014, industry insiders say another wage hike is inevitable; 3

4 Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam nevertheless, the rise is expected to be within 30%. Philippines: Export growth rebounded in June Merchandise exports amounted to US$4.5 billion in June, up by 4.1% yoy, the highest growth in six months. Meanwhile, exports of electronic products, the country s largest export category, declined at a softer pace of 2.2% yoy compared to the 9.3% yoy decrease in May. Among the top ten export categories, exports of woodcrafts and furniture registered the highest yoy growth of 77.6% in June, followed by other mineral products (up by 58.4% yoy). By contrast, exports of machinery and transport equipment and apparel and clothing accessories dropped by 33.8% yoy and 26.3% yoy, respectively. In January-June 2013, merchandise exports fell by 4.4% yoy. Exports of electronic products and apparel and clothing accessories declined by 18.5% yoy and 14.8% yoy respectively, while exports of woodcraft and furniture surged by 64.5% yoy. Exporters remained confident that the positive export performance seen in June can be sustained in the coming months, especially as they are expecting demand for garments and electronic products to revive soon. Philippines: Garment sector regains US buyers The US buyers are making a comeback to the country for garments, as orders from the US have doubled during the last two to three months, according to Robert Young, president of Foreign Buyers Association of the Philippines (FOBAP). In the past few years, the US buyers placed fewer orders in the country due to the US economic slowdown. Apart from the recovering US economy, the recent increase in orders from the US buyers are also attributable to rising labor costs in China, as well as the suspended trade privileges for Bangladesh over concerns of labor safety issues. Knitted kidswear and women s woven sportswear are two major categories that the US buyers ordered. European buyers have also expressed their interest to place more orders, especially for the country s niche products such as abaca-woven bags, denims and t-shirts. Philippines: The country lagged behind other ASEAN countries in attracting FDI last year Despite impressive economic performance, the Philippines remained an FDI laggard among the ASEAN countries in 2012, according to the World Investment Report released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). FDI inflows to the ASEAN countries totaled US$111.3 billion in Singapore remained the largest recipient, with FDI inflows amounting to US$56.7 billion, followed by Indonesia (US$19.9 billion), Malaysia (US$10.1 billion), Thailand (US$8.6 billion) and Vietnam (US$8.4 billion). The Philippines ranked the 6 th with US$2.8 billion. In terms of growth, however, FDI inflows to the Philippines grew by 54.0% yoy in 2012, the second fastest in the region after Cambodia (up by 72.6% yoy). Total FDI inflows to the ASEAN region went up by 2.1% yoy in the year. In 1Q13, approved foreign investments in the Philippines grew by 86.7% yoy to 34.6 billion pesos (approximately US$804 million), showing that foreign investors are gaining confidence in the Aquino administration and the country s economy. Thailand: Exports put downward pressure on the country s growth After declining by 5.2% yoy in May, Thailand s exports witnessed a 3.4% yoy decrease in June with total exports amounting to US$19.1 billion, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce. In the first six months, exports 4

5 Asia Sourcing Update August 2013 registered a dismal 1.0% increase over the same period last year, far below the 2013 fullyear export growth forecast of % made by the Ministry in May. The disappointing export figures clearly put downward pressure on Thailand s growth prospects. In mid-july, the Bank of Thailand slashed the export growth forecast for 2013 from 7.5% to 4%, and lowered the GDP growth forecast from 5.1% to 4.2%. Thailand: Textile manufacturers are urged to invest abroad In view of Thailand s labor shortage, rising minimum wages and the likely expiry of Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) privileges to the US and EU markets, the Board of Investment (BoI) has advised four major industrial sectors electronics and electrical appliances, textiles and apparel, agriculture and construction to invest abroad. The country s industries are facing a severe labour shortage with a shortfall of over 300,000 workers in 2013, according to the Office of Industrial Economics. The textile and apparel sector faces the highest shortage of workers (43,520), followed by automotive (36,606), food (30,825) and electronics (25,600). The problem will become more severe because of the ageing population. Since January this year, Thailand has implemented for the first time a nationwide minimum wage of 300 baht (about US$9.6) per day. At the same time, Thailand may no longer be eligible for GSP privileges, as the country reaches the World Bank s upper-middle-income benchmark. According to Chartchai Singhadeja, director of the Thai Garment Manufacturers Association s Overseas Trade and Investment Center, costs for garment manufacturers would increase by 20-30% without any GSP privileges. Thailand: Thailand-EU FTA may come at a cost Thailand and the EU completed the first round of negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) in May An FTA will help maintain Thai exporters competitiveness in the EU market, especially as the trade benefits that they are enjoying under the current EU Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) may expire in However, the trade pact also comes at a cost as the EU will embed various rules in the FTA. One possibility is the prohibition of all duty rebates and duty exemptions on imported materials contained in the finished products exported to the EU. Such a provision would discourage the import of materials from other countries to Thailand. Besides, without the duty rebates or duty exemptions, the value of the imported or non-originating materials will increase and thus make it more difficult to satisfy the value-based rule of origin requirement stipulated by the FTA. Under current EU GSP benefits, raw materials imported into Thailand from other ASEAN countries that are also GSP beneficiaries can be considered originating from Thailand (i.e. the ASEAN cumulative rules of origin ). Once Thailand loses its GSP beneficiary status, the cumulative rules of origin will no longer apply to those imported inputs from other ASEAN countries, thereby forcing many Thai manufacturers to change their ASEAN sourcing strategy. As the EU has begun pursuing bilateral trade pacts with many major markets including the US, China and Japan, the Thai government is keen to finalize the FTA with the EU soon. The second round of negotiations will be held in Bangkok this September. Vietnam: Requirements for Preferential Customs Treatment Lowered After two years of pilot implementation, the Ministry of Finance promulgated Circular 86/2013/TT-BTC on 27 July to introduce an official priority customs system (also known 5

6 Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam internationally as the Authorized Economic Operator). The circular, which took effect on 11 August 2013, allows Vietnamese importers/exporters with annual turnover of US$200 million or more to receive fast-track approvals from customs agents for their imports/exports. For companies exporting agricultural or aquatic products, textile, leather and footwear, and companies importing raw materials for production of these export items, the annual turnover requirement is further lowered to US$50 million. The new regime has a lower threshold for eligibility compared to the pilot programme launched in 2011 (Circular 63/2011/TT-BTC), which required a minimum annual turnover of US$350 million (and US$70 million for priority sectors). Businesses certified under the new system are entitled to priority customs clearance, with benefits including reduced clearance time and Green Channel facility. For more information, please refer to %20customs%20regime.pdf Vietnam: Garment exports grew 14.5% yoy in 1H13 Exports of garments and textiles from Vietnam grew by 14.5% yoy to US$8.9 billion in the first six months of the current year, according to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS). The top four markets for Vietnamese garments continued to be the US, the EU, Japan and Korea, which accounted for US$3.9 billion, US$1.3 billion, US$1.1 billion and US$660 million worth of exports in 1H13, respectively. Together, the four countries took up 79% of Vietnam s garment exports in the period. According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, the country s exports reached US$61.5 billion in 1H13, an increase of 15.1% over the same period last year. Vietnam: Garments added to US government forced labor list Garments from Vietnam is added to the US Department of Labor s latest List of Products Produced by Forced or Indentured Child Labor announced on 22 July. This means suppliers to US federal government bodies must not supply made-in Vietnam garments unless they can prove that no forced child labor is employed in the production of these items. In its Notice of Final Determination dated 23 July, the Department of Labor states that [T]here are more than isolated cases of forced child labor in garment production. These cases predominately occur in small, unregistered workplaces In the case of garments from Vietnam, ILAB [Bureau of International Labor Affairs] research in 2008 and 2009 revealed a trend of forced child labor in the sector. Further ILAB research in 2011 and 2012 revealed additional recent and ongoing cases of forced child labor in the garment industry, confirming earlier research. A report released in May by the US-based Worker Rights Consortium (WRC) a group of university administrators, students and other advocates that monitors working conditions in foreign countries also accused Vietnamese factory owners of forced labor, child labor, discrimination against female workers, unsafe working conditions, inadequate wages and of working with the Vietnamese government to squash attempts at forming independent unions. As a result of these findings, US human rights and labor groups have called on the Obama administration to suspend negotiations with Vietnam on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. These concerns are a preview of the likely debate in the US Congress over the TPP agreement. 6

7 Asia Sourcing Update August 2013 Major Economic Indicators Cambodia Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Consumer price index Exports Exports (US$ mn) Of which: - Clothing (US$ mn) Other textile products Shoes Imports Imports (Cambodian riels bn) Gasoline (riels/litre) Diesel (riels/litre) Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance Indonesia Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Quarterly GDP (real yoy growth %) 6.0(1Q13) 5.8(2Q13) Production index of large and medium manufacturing Manufacturing PMI (HSBC) Real retail sales index Consumer price index Exports Exports (FOB, US$ bn) Imports Imports (US$ bn) BI rate (%, end of month) Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, HSBC PMI reports Philippines Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Quarterly GDP (real yoy growth %) 7.8(1Q13) - Value of production index, manufacturing Volume of production index, manufacturing Producer price index for total manufacturing Consumer price index Exports Exports (FOB,US$ mn) Imports Imports (FOB,US$ mn) Balance of trade (US$ mn) Overnight repo rate (%, end of month) Source: National Statistics Office, National Statistical Coordination Board, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas 7

8 Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam Thailand Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Quarterly GDP (real yoy growth %) 5.3(1Q13) - Industrial production index (value added weight, not seasonally adjusted), yoy growth % Producer price index Consumer price index Exports Exports (US$ bn) Imports Imports (US$ bn) Trade balance (US$ bn) One-day repo rate (%, end of month) Source: National Economic and Social Development Board, Office of Industrial Economics, Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Commerce Vietnam Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Quarterly GDP (real yoy growth %) 4.8(1Q13) 5.0(2Q13) Industrial production index Manufacturing PMI (HSBC) Retail sales of consumer goods and services (year-to-date, yoy growth %) Price index of materials used for production 3.4(1Q13) 2.5(2Q13) Producer price index for industrial products 3.6(1Q13) 4.8(2Q13) Consumer price index Exports (year-to-date, yoy growth %) Exports (US$ mn) Of which: - Textile (US$ mn) Shoes & sandals Wood & products Imports (year-to-date, yoy growth %) Imports (US$ mn) Refinancing rate (end of month %) Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam, General Department of Vietnam Customs, State Bank of Vietnam, HSBC PMI reports 8

9 USD: VND USD: PHP USD: THB USD: KHR USD: IDR Asia Sourcing Update August 2013 Daily Exchange Rates (February - July 2013) Cambodia USD: KHR official exchange rate Indonesia USD: IDR buy rate Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: Bank Indonesia Philippines USD: PHP BSP reference rate Thailand USD: THB mid-rate Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Source: Bank of Thailand Vietnam USD: VND buy rate of commercial banks Source: State Bank of Vietnam 9

10 Cambodia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam Appendix Indonesia: Monthly minimum wages in different provinces/cities Province / City Change Rp (in US$*) Rp (in US$*) (%) Aceh 1,400,000 (145.5) 1,550,000 (151.3) 10.7 Bali Island 967,500 (100.6) 1,181,000 (115.3) 22.1 Bangka-Belitung 1,110,000 (115.4) 1,265,000 (123.5) 14.0 Banten 1,042,000 (108.3) 1,170,000 (114.2) 12.3 Bengkulu 930,000 (96.7) 1,200,000 (117.1) 29.0 Central Java 765,000 (79.5) 830,000 (81.0) 8.5 Central Kalimantan 1,327,459 (138.0) 1,553,127 (151.6) 17.0 Central Sulawesi 885,000 (92.0) 995,000 (97.1) 12.4 East Java 745,000 (77.4) 866,250 (84.5) 16.3 East Kalimantan 1,177,000 (122.3) 1,752,073 (171.0) 48.9 East Nusa Tenggara 925,000 (96.1) 1,010,000 (98.6) 9.2 Gorontalo 837,500 (87.0) 1,175,000 (114.7) 40.3 Jakarta 1,529,150 (158.9) 2,200,000 (214.7) 43.9 Jambi 1,142,500 (118.7) 1,300,000 (126.9) 13.8 Lampung 975,000 (101.3) 1,150,000 (112.2) 17.9 Maluku Island 975,000 (101.3) 1,275,000 (124.4) 30.8 North Maluku 960,498 (99.8) 1,200,622 (117.2) 25.0 North Sulawesi 1,250,000 (129.9) 1,550,000 (151.3) 24.0 North Sumatra 1,200,000 (124.7) 1,375,000 (134.2) 14.6 Papua 1,515,000 (157.5) 1,710,000 (166.9) 12.9 Riau 1,238,000 (128.7) 1,400,000 (136.6) 13.1 Riau Islands 1,015,000 (105.5) 1,365,087 (133.2) 34.5 Southeast Sulawesi 1,032,300 (107.3) 1,125,207 (109.8) 9.0 South Kalimantan 1,225,000 (127.3) 1,337,500 (130.5) 9.2 South Sulawesi 1,200,000 (124.7) 1,440,000 (140.5) 20.0 South Sumatra 1,195,220 (124.2) 1,350,000 (131.8) 12.9 West Java 780,000 (81.1) 850,000 (83.0) 9.0 West Kalimantan 900,000 (93.5) 1,060,000 (103.5) 17.8 West Nusa Tenggara 1,000,000 (103.9) 1,100,000 (107.4) 10.0 West Papua 1,450,000 (150.7) 1,720,000 (167.9) 18.6 West Sulawesi 1,127,000 (117.1) 1,165,000 (113.7) 3.4 West Sumatra 1,150,000 (119.5) 1,350,000 (131.8) 17.4 Yogyakarta 892,660 (92.8) 947,114 (92.4) 6.1 Source: *1 US dollar = 9,622 Indonesian Rupiah on 28 December, US dollar = 10,246 Indonesian Rupiah on 14 August, 2013 (Source: Bank of Indonesia) The Fung Business Intelligence Centre 10/F, Li Fung Tower, 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Hong Kong Tel: (852) Fax: (852) lfdc@lf1937.com Copyright 2013 The Fung Business Intelligence Centre. All rights reserved. Though the Fung Business Intelligence Centre endeavours to ensure the information provided in this publication is accurate and updated, no legal liability can be attached as to the contents hereof. Reproduction or redistribution of this material without prior written consent of the Fung Business Intelligence Centre is prohibited. 10