18 th MIICEMA Seminar TOWARD ECONOMIC STABILITY AND SUSTAINABLITY
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1 Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs Republic of Indonesia 18 th MIICEMA Seminar TOWARD ECONOMIC STABILITY AND SUSTAINABLITY Edi P. Pambudi Assistant Deputy Minister Monetary & Balance of Payment IPB Bogor October 4, 2017
2 SABANG The Multicultural Indonesia Indonesian Archipelago consist of islands (6.000 inhabited) Sabang-Merauke 5248 km or 3261 miles (flying time of about 6 hours 32 mins) Population: 258 million Coastline: 546 KM languages and dialects 34 provinces, 514 regencies Over 300 ethinc groups Sumatera Kalimantan Maluku Papua Sulawesi Java MERAUKE Area: total land area: 1,904,569 km 2 (land: 1,811,569 km 2 ( mi2), inland water: 93,000 km 2 ) (35,907 mi 2 ) territorial area: 5,193,250 km 2[15] total area (including exclusive economic zone): around 7.9 million km 2 Land boundaries: total: 2,958 kilometres (1,838 mi) border countries: Malaysia 1,881 kilometres (1,169 mi), Papua New Guinea 824 kilometres (512 mi), East Timor 253 kilometres (157 mi)
3 MAINTAINING LARGE and DIVERSE Geographical Condition 252 4th world s most Populous Country millions population (BPS 2016) 17,508 islands World s largest Archipelago Political Party Parliamentary Period (1955) Legislative Election 118 participants (26 political parties, 34 community organizations, 48 individuals) Constituent Election 91 participants (39 political parties, 23 community organizations, 29 individuals) Potential Commodities Palm Oil World s largest producer and exporter Nickel & Bauxite Rank 4th and 7 th respectively in world s reserves Cocoa & Tin World s second largest producer Steel, Copper, Rubber, Fisheries One of the world s largest producer The New Order Period ( ) Reform Period ( Now) Source: BPS, KPU, MP3EI 3 Political Parties 1999: 48 political parties 2004: 24 political parties 2009: 44 political parties 2014: 15 political parties
4 ECONOMIC CONDITION ,00 Economic Growth (%) Economic Growth by Sector Q2-2017(%yoy) 5,50 5,00 4,50 4, Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q ,61 31,36 19,1 17,79 4,95 5,35 8,49 3,36 0,55-1,93 8,63 Household Consumption Economic Growth by Expenditure Q2-2017(%yoy) Investment Export Import Government Consumption 1,18 Non Household and Non Government Consumption 5,01 Manufacturing Industry Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Large & Retail Trade; Car & Motorcycle Construction Mining and Excavation Transportation and Warehousing Financial Services and Insurance Information and Communication Mandatory Administration of Government, -0,03 Education Services Accomodation and Refreshment Real Estate Other Services Company Services Electricity and Gas Supply -2,53 Health Services and Social Activities Water Supply, Waste Management 6,96 7,36 2,24 5,27 8,37 4,21 5,94 3,83 10,88 3,63 3,23 0,9 2,83 5,07 2,8 3,86 1,75 8,63 1,74 8,14 1,17 1,05 6,4 0,07 3,67 Source: BPS Pertumbuhan (%yoy) Distribusi (%) 4 3,54 3,33 3,78 13,92 13,03 10,11 20,26 Distribusi (%) Pertumbuhan (%yoy) Economic growth in both Q1 and Q is 5.01% All component by expenditure have positive growth except government expenditure By sector, economic growth is especially supported by Information and Communication (10.88%yoy) and Other Services (8.63%yoy)
5 REGIONAL ECONOMY Positive economic growth in 1 st Semester of 2017 is experienced by all provinces except Nusa Tenggara Barat Sulawesi Tenggara Maluku Utara Gorontalo Sulawesi Selatan Sulawesi Tengah Kalimantan Utara Kalimantan Tengah DKI Jakarta Bali Sulawesi Utara Maluku Banten Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Sumatera Barat Jawa Barat Sumatera Selatan Jawa Tengah DI Yogyakarta Kalimantan Selatan Sumatera Utara Bengkulu Lampung Jawa Timur Nusa Tenggara Timur Kalimantan Barat Papua Sulawesi Barat Jambi Aceh Kalimantan Timur Riau Papua Barat Kepulauan Riau Nusa Tenggara Barat Source: BPS Economic Growth TW II-2017 (%YoY) -1,96 7, Kalimantan Tengah Sulawesi Tenggara Maluku Utara Sulawesi Selatan Gorontalo Kalimantan Utara DKI Jakarta Sulawesi Utara Sulawesi Barat Maluku Kepulauan Bangka Belitung Bali Banten Sulawesi Tengah Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Kalimantan Selatan Jawa Timur Sumatera Selatan DI Yogyakarta Sumatera Barat Bengkulu Lampung Nusa Tenggara Timur Kalimantan Barat Sumatera Utara Jambi Papua Kalimantan Timur Aceh Papua Barat Riau Kepulauan Riau Nusa Tenggara Barat Economic Growth Semester I-2017 (%YoY) -2, ,8
6 SOCIO & POLITICAL CONDITION Indonesia Political Risk Score June 2017 Political risk is increasing as time approaching to General Election 2019 Sumber: BMI Research Note: Score 100 (best) Inequality Indonesia democracy is still remarkable Poverty Indonesia Freedom Status in 2017 Freedom Rating: 3/7 Civil Liberties Score: 4/7 Political Right Score:2/7 1= Best; 7= Worst Source: Freedom House Corruption eradication is major national agenda which contribute to economic development Corruption Perception Index 2016 Ranking 2016 Global 90/106 ASEAN4 /10 Sumber: Transparency International Unemployment Indonesia Score ,11 8,39 7,87 7,14 7,48 6,13 6,17 5,94 6,18 5,61 5, Sumber: BPS
7 MANUFACTURE IN GDP Facing the global economic challenges, Indonesia records modest economic growth while picking up since Slowing growth can be seen in both manufacture and agriculture sectors, though manufacture sector has more significant decline. Likewise, manufacture sector contribution to GDP is declining during the seven observation years. This is a continuing trend since 2005 after experiencing positive trend during post 1980 deregulation Era. During , agriculture sector contribution to GDP also tends to decrease yet slightly. Indonesia Economic Growth (YoY%) Share in GDP (%) ,5 13, , , ,5 11, GDP growth manufacture sector growth agriculture sector growth share of manufacture sector share of agriculture sector-rhs Source: BPS Data
8 MANUFACTURE TRADE Manufacture sector plays significant role in Indonesia international trade figure. The export contribution of manufacture sector is far above other sectors. This condition affects the import goods which is dominated by raw and supporting materials followed by capital goods to support manufacturing activities. While, agricultural sector export contribution is relatively stagnant in one digit share in the last 16 years. Export Contribution (%) Import Value (Million USD) 83,57 13,82 2,62 agriculture sector manufacture sector mining and other sectors consumption goods raw and supporting materials capital goods Source: BPS Data
9 PRODUCTION CAPACITY UTILIZATION In general, manufacture sector production capacity utilization is still below 80% and less than in agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery sectors. This is along with production capacity utilization in most manufacture sub-sectors. Production Capacity Utilization (%) Manufacture Subsector Production Capacity Utilization (%) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q ,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q manufacture agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery Source: BPS Data
10 LABOR PRODUCTIVITY In long run, number of manufacture labor is increasing. Share of manufacture labor is increasing in but then has decreasing trend until During , monthly wage annual growth fluctuates but the productivity is relatively stagnant. Specifically in , wage growth is increasing significantly but productivity is decreasing. Manufacture Labor Number and Share Labor Wage and Productivity Growth (YOY%) 16,0 22,9 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 3,8 10, number of manufacture labor (in million) manufacture labor share (%) monthly wage productivity Source: BPS Data
11 INDONESIA IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN Indonesia s production has high forward linkage, but still low in backward linkage. Besides that, Indonesia still has low participation in GVC, reflected on low international frequency. Country Coverage (Distance to Final Demand) Frequency (Number of Production Stages) Power (Participation Index) Domestic International Forward Backward Australia Medium Medium Low High Low Canada Low Low Low Low Low Chile Medium Medium Medium High Low Japan Low Medium Low High Low Mexico Low Low Low Low Medium New Zealand Medium Medium Low Low Low United States Low Medium Low Medium Low China High High Low Low Medium Indonesia Medium Medium Low High Low Brunei Darussalam High Low Low High Low Malaysia High Medium High Medium High Singapore Medium Low High Medium High Vietnam Low Low High Low High Source: LPEM GVC Team based on OECD Data 11
12 COMPETITIVENESS Indonesia Global Competitiveness Index GCI PILLARS Score Ranks / / /2018 4,7 36/137 PILLAR 1 Institutions PILLAR 2 Infrastructure / /2016 4,5 4,5 41/138 37/140 Rank Score PILLAR 3 Macroeconomic Environment PILLAR 4 Health and Primary Education PILLARS BASIC REQUIREMENTS INDEX 2014/2015 4,6 34/144 PILLAR 5 Higher Education and Training PILLAR 6 Goods Market Efficiency PILLAR 7 Labour Market Efficiency Indonesia GCI rank rises from 41 in 2016/2017 to 36 in 2017/2018. The improvement can be seen in all competitiveness pillars. Though technological, individual and firms readiness are still low which reflect the still uneven spread of innovation across the country PILLAR 8 Financial Market Development PILLAR 9 Technological Readiness PILLAR 10 Market Size PILLARS EFFICIENCY ECHANCERS SUBINDEX PILLAR 11 Business Sophistication PILLAR 12 Innovation PILLARS Source: World Economic Forum INNOVATION AND SOPHISTICATION FACTORS SUBINDEX 12
13 THE NEED OF FOOD MANUFACTURE DEVELOPMENT Import Growth (%) Bilateral Revealed Comparative Advantage (BRCA) BEC CODE I Source: BPS Data DETAILS GROWTH (%) Total Import Consumption Goods Food and Beverages (Primary) Mainly for Household Food and Beverages (Processed) Mainly for Household II Intermediary Goods III Capital Goods Food and Beverages (Primary) Mainly for Household Indonesia China Indonesia USA Indonesia Australia Indonesia commodity is competitive but less than trade partners Indonesia commodity is more competitive than trade partners Indonesia commodity is not competitive. BRCA > 1 = country commodity is competitive BRCA < 1 = country commodity is not competitive Consumption of imported goods grows significantly in Food and Beverages (Primary) for Household and Food and Beverages (Processed) for Household are two of major imported consumption goods. Their import shares are more than 5%. The competitiveness of those commodities are better than that of some countries, yet Indonesia still imports those commodities from those countries Indonesia Thailand Indonesia Australia Indonesia Malaysia Indonesia China Indonesia New Zealand Food and Beverages (Processed) Mainly for Household Indonesia Vietnam Indonesia India Indonesia USA
14 ECONOMIC POLICY PACKAGE To Improve national industry competitiveness, export and investment to generate significant economic growth Harmonizing Regulation Simplifying Bureaucratic Process Ensuring Law Enforceability Phase I, 9 Sept 15 Improving national industry competitiveness Phase II, 29 Sept 15 Easing Permit requirement and simplifying export proceeds requirement Phase III, 7 Oct 15 Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination of business unnecessary burden Phase IV, 15 Oct 15 Social Safety net and betterment of people welfare Phase V, 22 Oct 15 Improving industry and investment climate through tax incentives and deregulation on sharia banking Phase VI, 6Nov 15 Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodity availability Phase VII, 7 Dec 15 Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process for individuals Phase VIII, 21 Dec 15 Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries Phase IX, 27 Jan 16 Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and improving ruralurban logistic sector Phase X, 11 Feb 16 Revising Negative Investment List and improving protection for SMEs Phase XI, 29 Mar 16 Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and Industries Phase XII, 28 Apr 16 Improving Indonesia s rank on Ease of Doing Business (EoDB) Phase XIII, 24 Aug 16 Low Cost Housing for Low-Income Communities Phase XIV, 10 Nov 16 Roadmap for E-commerce Phase XV, 15 June 17 Improving logistics Phase XVI, 31 August 17 Accelerating business permit procedures in central and regional level
15 SUPPORTIVE POLICY IN ECONOMIC EQUALITY Equality policy is an affirmative economic policy that aims to improve the ability of the weak and middle economic community to have equity (especially land), opportunity, and competent human resource in various vital sectors including agriculture and manufacture sectors. A Land Synchronizing and Implementing Agrarian Reform and Social Forestry Allocating Agricultural Land to Farmer Without Land Rejuvenation of Smallholder Plantations and Encourage Private/State-Owned Enterprises' Role as Off-takers and processor Developing the affordable housing for the urban poor Fishermen & Seaweed Cultivation B Justice Tax System Economic Equality Policy Opportunity Manufacture and ICT Retail and Market C Human Resource Capacity Financing and Government Budget Vocational, Entrepreneurship and Labor Market 15
16 1 AGRICULTURAL REFORM 3 AGRICULTURAL INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 6 2 IRIGATION AND AGRICULTURAL LAND MANAGEMENT IMPROVEMENT OF STAPLE FOOD PRODUCTION CYCLE 4 5 POST AGRICULTURAL HARVESTING MANAGEMENT 7 AGRICULTURAL FINANCING BY PEOPLE BUSINESS CREDIT OPTIMALIZATION OF THE BUREAU OF LOGISTICS ROLE IN FOOD PRICE STABILITY DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING MANAGEMENT
17 SUPPORTIVE POLICY IN HUMAN RESOURCE CAPACITY Improving HR capacity through Vocational Education and Training, Entrepreneurship and Labor Market Identification and sector prioritization, sub-sector of superior industry and profession. Job matching scheme between industry and vocation. Early childhood intervention. Focus on skill, collaborative, flexibility, and impact (not merely the degree). Identification and Determination of Priority Education Process and Training Competence Test Workforce Distribution
18 SUPPORTIVE POLICY FOR BUSINESS CLIMATE Accelerating Business Permit Procedures BUSINESS PERMIT REGULATION REFORM (INCLUDING SMEs) Minister/Head of Institutions, Governor, Mayor evaluate all business permit regulation under their purview (including reference regulations) Reform and Renewal of Business Permit Regulation about: a. Service Standard, which regulates businessman requirements, permit submission and application, procedures and length of time for issuance b. Cost (when needed) c. Inspection and Supervision d. Reporting Services e. IT implementation and online decision making Regulation on obligation to issue permit when all the requirements are complete and deadline has been passed The deadline of implementation of Reform and Renewal of Business Permit is End of November Assistances: a.ministry of Home Affairs and Ministry of Law and Human Rights give assistance in evaluation and Provincial/Municipal new regulation planning for business permit b.ministries/institutions with delegated tasks to regional governments give assistances on related regional regulation materials
19 INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE 8,6 8,1 7,6 7,1 6,6 6,1 5,6 5,1 4,6 Foreign Investment (Bn USD) ,3 7,3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Jan Jun 2017 (Based on Country of Origin) Others, US$ 5,1 B (33%) USA, US$ 1 B (6%) Hongkong, US$ 1 B, (6%) Singapore, US$ 3,7 B, (24%) Japan, US$ 2,8 B, (18%) China, US$ 2 B, (13%) Domestic Investment (Tn IDR) ,8 61,0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Source: BKPM Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry, Rp 32,7 T (10%) Electricity, Gas and Water, Rp 35,7 T (11%) Transportation, Warehousing, and Telecommunication, Rp 26,1 T, (8%) Food Industry, RP 37,4 T, (11%) Mining, Rp 44,4 T, (13%) Foreign + Domestic Investment (Trillion IDR) Jan - Jun 2017 (Based on Sector) Others, Rp 160,4 T, (48%) 19
20 INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS UNCTAD: MNEs top prospective host economies for (June 2017) 1 US China India Indonesia Thailand Brazil UK Germany Mexico Philippines Spain Vietnam Singapore Canada Australia India Indonesia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Myanmar Malaysia Australia South Korea Hong Kong Japan Singapore Taiwan , The Economist: Indonesia among the top 3 destination for attracting investors in Asia (January 2017) 3 China 71,6 21,3 26,3 25,3 24,8 Source: 1. UNCTAD World Investment Report IMF World Economic Outlook, Database April ,4 27,7 33,3 3 39,4 46,2 53,7 55, ,75 31,42 34,17 34,29 34,3 31,43 India China Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Mexico USA Philippines Myanmar Brazil Malaysia Singapore Russia South Korea Turkey Indonesia enjoys large invetsment relative to peers within the region 2 7,2 6,8 4,8 3,5 3,1 2,5 10,6 10,1 25,09 26,06 19, * 25,48 25,41 23,6 22,01 24,3 22,55 20,55 25,9 35,8 32,7 29, ,58 27,58 27,18 India Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam JBIC: Amongst ASEAN countries, Indonesia is the most preferred place for business investment (December 2016) 4 Sumber: 3. The Economist Asia Business Outlook Survey JBIC Outlook for Japanese FDI (28th Annual Survey) 47,6
21 National Strategic Projects 245 Projects and 2 Programs are scattered throughout Indonesia The Project Covers 13 Project Sectors As Well As 2 Program Sectors Sector Project Roads Railways Ports Airports Area Housing PLBN Water & Sanitation Dams Irigation Technology Smelter Energy Agriculture / Fisheries PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT PROJECT Electricity Aircraft Industry 21
22 MANUFACTURE ROLE IN ECONOMY: VIETNAM CASE Share of FDI in Manufacture (%) 68,13 Massive capital and labor investments in manufacture sector results in jumps of Vietnam High-Tech exports and High-Tech exports share in total manufacture exports High-Tech Exports Real Estate Activities 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Air Con Supply Construction Transportation, Storage Share of Labor in Manufacture (%) Malaysia Filipina Singapura Thailand Vietnam Indonesia High-Technology Exports (USD Mn) Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia High-Technology Exports: % of Manufactured Exports Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Source: CEIC Data
23 THANK YOU CMEA
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