Demographic Changes In Canada And Their Impact On Public Education

Transcription

1 Demographic Changes In Canada And Their Impact On Public Education November, 2006 By Edward B. Harvey Ph.D., Urban Dimensions Group, Inc. and Rene Houle, Ph.D., University of New Brunswick

2 The Learning Partnership The Learning Partnership (TLP) is committed to championing a strong public education system for the benefit of all Canadians. We achieve this through the delivery of credible and timely research, innovative programs and public engagement opportunities. At TLP, we seek to inform public opinion and encourage discussion with education partners, including all levels of government, educators, corporate and community leaders and parents who are concerned about and want to improve Canada s public education system. Sponsorship This paper, as well as the other aspects of the public engagement process, was sponsored by the TD Bank Financial Group and the Canadian Council on Learning. The Learning Partnership gratefully acknowledges their generous contributions to this work. Acknowledgements The Learning Partnership acknowledges with thanks the editorial work of Ellen Kachuck Rosenbluth and the contributions of Karen Myers and Richard Liu of UDG Inc. The Learning Partnership greatly acknowledges the work of the Steering Committee in the development of the project and for providing valuable comments in the preparation of this paper. The Steering Committee was comprised of the following individuals: Ann Buller, Toronto Sherman Chan, Vancouver Don Drummond, Toronto, Co-Chair Andrew Duffy, Ottawa Dr. Jane Gaskell, Toronto, Co-Chair Victor Glickman, Vancouver Douglas Hodgkinson, Victoria Morteza Jafarpour, Hamilton David MacDonald, Toronto Dr. Raymond Théberge, Toronto Judge Marie Ellen Turpel-Lafond, Saskatoon Charles Ungerleider, Vancouver Nancy Watson, Toronto For The Learning Partnership: Veronica Lacey, Toronto Clay Lafleur, Toronto Ellen Kachuck Rosenbluth, Toronto

3 November 2006 Dear Colleagues and Friends, The Learning Partnership (TLP) is pleased to present this background research paper on Demographic Changes in Canada and their Impact on Public Education. As the cornerstone of our civil and democratic society, our public education systems are charged with the responsibility of educating our young people to take their place in society as productive citizens within the context of Canada s rich diversity. Rapid changes in the demographic make up of our population are presenting unprecedented challenges to our schools and, ultimately, to society as a whole. It is therefore crucial at this time for extraordinary efforts to be made to ensure that all of our young people, including those who are most vulnerable, have the opportunity to succeed in school. To do this, however, we need an informed, open and broad-based discussion on the nature of these changes and how the needs of all students can be addressed. TLP has undertaken this project to engage communities across the country in a discussion about the impact of major population changes on education and to develop policy options for governments, educators and communities. This research paper provides the background data and identifies issues and policy options as the basis for discussion. Roundtable discussions, guided by a summary discussion paper, are taking place throughout the fall of 2006 and winter of2007. A final report will incorporate the research data and the results of the roundtable discussions to provide policy and planning options for federal, provincial and territorial jurisdictions and school boards in We are grateful to our sponsors, TD Bank Financial Group, The Canadian Council on Learning, The C.D. Howe Memorial Foundation and The Wallace and Margaret McCain Family Foundation for providing the funding to make this important and timely project possible. We would also like to thank the members of our Steering Committee who helped guide the development of this research paper. Respectfully, Veronica Lacey, President and CEO, The Learning Partnership Don Drummond, Co-Chair Senior Vice President and Chief Economist TD Bank Financial Group Jane Gaskell, Co-Chair Dean, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Major demographic changes in the number, characteristics and location of school-aged children present enormous challenges and opportunities for education systems across the country. The trends vary in Canada s various regions and jurisdictions. Rapid population shifts, particularly in the areas of immigration, aboriginal population growth, and rural/urban migration, are causing schools to experience dramatic change in the ethnic, cultural, linguistic and socio-economic characteristics of their students. Given the extent of these demographic changes, their implications for Canadian public policy in general, and for education systems specifically, warrant broad national discussion. The Learning Partnership (TLP) has produced this paper as background research for a comprehensive public engagement process designed to involve the Canadian public in a meaningful dialogue on the nature of these demographic changes, on some of the promising practices being implemented to address related problems and on policy options that can ultimately help communities and education systems provide the best for all students, from kindergarten to grade 12. The project has been funded by the TD Bank Financial Group; the Canadian Council on Learning (CCL); the Margaret and Wallace McCain Family Foundation; and the C.D. Howe Foundation. This research paper provides a current snapshot as well as future projections of major demographic changes taking place in Canada that are having the most significant effect on education. Prepared for TLP by Dr. Edward Harvey, former chair of sociology at the Ontario Institute for Studies in Education (OISE) and Dr. Rene Houle of the University of New Brunswick, it brings together recent statistical data and research material based on the processes, terms and procedures utilized by Statistics Canada. The paper focuses on the rising proportion of recent immigrants and students who speak neither official language; the rising numbers of immigrants and visible minority students in large urban centres; the impact of rising numbers of Aboriginal students moving to urban schools; and the impact of declining student populations in rural communities. The Introduction and Overview section identifies the economic and social imperatives of understanding the effects on the education system of demographic changes taking place in Canada. Chapters 2, 3 and 4 provide the demographic data and analysis of original data in the areas of immigrant, Aboriginal and rural populations respectively. Educational outcomes are discussed in Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 addresses policy questions and options. Based on the data and materials of the background research, a discussion paper has been prepared for the national public engagement process that is taking place through a series of roundtables and other forums across the country in 2006 and Material from this research paper, census data gathered in 2006, and results of the discussions will be synthesized in a final report to be published and distributed nationally in the spring of This initiative has been designed to yield a host of promising practices and policy approaches to help our educators meet the many needs these demographic changes portend. Policy options will be shared with policy makers and the various levels of government in order to stimulate the development of effective and responsive public policy across the country.

5 CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Human Capital Development and Social Cohesion Demographic Change and Canadian Public Education An Overview of the Research Report... 8 CHAPTER 2: THE IMMIGRANT POPULATION Recent trends in immigration to Canada The changing composition of the immigrant population Immigration and visible minority status of the school-age population Language characteristics of the foreign-origin school-age population The economic situation of immigrants Conclusion CHAPTER 3: THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION The Aboriginal population in Canada The future demographic dynamics of Aboriginal populations A few words on the economic situation of Aboriginals Conclusion CHAPTER 4: THE RURAL POPULATION The Canadian rural population Rural-urban migrations The Rural economic situation and development strategies Conclusion CHAPTER 5: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES School performance of visible minorities and immigrant children School performance of Aboriginal children School performance in rural areas Educational attainment and labour market success of youth Conclusion CHAPTER 6: POLICY AND PRACTICE OPTIONS The Immigrant Population The Aboriginal Population The Rural Population Concluding Comments Appendix References

6 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Canada is fortunate to have a strong system of public education. An effective public education system is fundamental to the wellbeing of our society and the individuals who live in that society. Our public education system plays an important role in preparing young people for participation in further education and training and in the economy. This becomes of increasing importance as the world economy becomes more global and competitive and, in particular, as production systems shift to a knowledge industry base. Also, the more education people have, and the better that education is, the more opportunity they have to obtain good jobs, avoid unemployment or under-employment, and create wealth. Such creation of wealth affords the individual a greatly expanded range of opportunities. But it is also highly beneficial to the society for it grows the tax base and accordingly provides more choices at the societal level as well. But beyond these considerations, our system of public education is apart from the family the major institutional setting in which young people acquire values and understandings about citizenship and the dynamics of living in society. In short, public education is central to the development and maintenance of social cohesion. This is of special importance in a multicultural society such as Canada where there are real risks of social and cultural polarizations developing. It is also important to note that the economic and social cohesion agendas are inextricably intertwined. Societies that enjoy economic success are much more likely to foster the growth of stable democratic institutions. Individuals who have benefited from education are much more likely to be socially and economically engaged with such institutions. Such individuals are less likely to become dependent on our social programs. Apart from the various considerations related to economic wellbeing and social cohesion, an effective public education system produces many other advantages as well. People with more 1

7 education are likely to be more productive, enjoy better health, and are less likely to engage in crime and other socially dysfunctional behaviour. Canada is a meritocracy. We are institutionally committed to advancing people on the basis of their capabilities and their achievements, not on the basis of characteristics ascribed at birth, such as gender, race, and socioeconomic background. Societies that foster socioeconomic mobility reap numerous economic and social benefits. Talented people are provided with an opportunity to make important contributions. The existence of a visible and effectively operational system of upward mobility fosters belief in the system which re-enforces social stability and cohesion. This is especially important in Canada, a country that welcomes around 250,000 immigrant newcomers each year. Education is the institution through which much of this socioeconomic mobility takes place. In short, an effective public education system is all about fostering choice: for the society and for the individuals who comprise that society. In Canada today and increasingly in the future, our public education system is experiencing significant challenges arising from demographic change. Because of declines in both our birth and mortality rates, Canada is an aging society. As we will see from the later discussion in this introduction and overview, this has serious implications for a crucial demographic indicator: the dependency ratio which, simply put is the proportion of persons no longer in the economy and drawing on government transfer payments, such as social security, to persons in the active economy and paying taxes. Immigration has been a cornerstone of Canadian history, contributing culturally, socially and economically. The dependency ratio makes immigration a factor in the maintenance of Canada s economic wellbeing and the renewal of our population. It also means that we simply cannot afford to underutilize (or consign to social and economic marginalization) any population sub-component or region of our country. Consistent with this line of argument, this research report examines three patterns of demographic change: (1) immigration; (2) Aboriginal persons; (3) the rural population. Immigration has been chosen because of its obvious importance, in both economic and population terms, to Canadian society. Public education, of course, plays a key role in shaping 2

8 economic and social opportunity for such newcomers. Aboriginal persons have been, in recent years, at the centre of several social and political debates in Canadian society. Regrettably, economic and educational disadvantage continue to prevail among Aboriginal persons in Canadian society. Finally, with respect to the rural population, it seems clear that the dynamic future of the Canadian economy resides in our urban areas. This report will examine available data to explore possible strategies for addressing the public education problems of rural areas being left behind. Each of these areas will be discussed in further detail in the overview section of this chapter. 1 First, however, we will turn to a more detailed discussion of human capital development and social cohesion issues in the next section. 1. Human Capital Development and Social Cohesion When policy decision makers make choices, they are often strongly influenced by economic considerations. At The Learning Partnership s recent Tribute Dinner in Toronto, the Honourable Frank McKenna, former Premier of New Brunswick, forcefully made the point that Canada s public education system is the foundation of our economy and the creator of national wealth. In the absence of this pump priming machine, we cannot achieve the tax base that is essential to maintaining our quality of life and the complex network of social programs Canadians have come to expect. The former Premier cited an important study by Roger Martin, Dean of the University of Toronto s Rotman School of Business, which shows that if the Canada/U.S. productivity gap could be closed, we would have an additional seventy-five billion dollars every year to support social program initiatives or other societal choices. Closing that gap is in no small measure dependent on educational innovations and success. The importance of staying in school cannot be over-estimated. An urban Canadian resident with only a high-school diploma earns, on average, 70 percent more than a high school drop-out. Mr. McKenna also commented on a recent New York Times article which observed, using American data, that every year high school drop-outs cost the U.S. economy $193 billion in 1 Although other demographic sub-groups may have special educational needs and may have an impact on public education this paper will focus specifically on the population sub-groups identified above as having a substantial and immediate impact on the K 12 public education systems in Canada. 3

9 foregone income and taxes. Related data show that the average 45 year old U.S. high school drop-out is in worse health than the average 65 year old high school graduate. The life expectancy of a U.S. high school drop-out is 9.2 years less than that of a high school graduate. Adjusting for population size, there is little reason to believe the situation is much different in Canada. Canada faces an increasingly global and intensely competitive world economy, an economy that is characterized by the growth of knowledge-based industries and technology-intensive enterprise. Our adaptation to this new and challenging environment is fundamental to our future economic success and our ability to maintain the standard of living and level of social programming we have come to expect as a people. Human capital development the acquisition of education and skills is at the core of this adaptive process. Never before has it been so critically important to build and maintain a leading edge public education capability. Never before has it been so important to enable all young Canadians to stay in the public education system, do well in the system, and take advantage of all that it has to offer. The situation is complicated by the fact that Canada, and the Canadian public education system, are facing unprecedented challenges arising from demographic changes, changes that we will explore in greater detail later in this chapter. We simply cannot afford the costs associated with labour market barriers to the full and effective participation of any component of the Canadian population. In a 2002 study for Human Resources Development Canada, Edward B. Harvey and John H. Blakely found that women, visible minorities, persons of Aboriginal origin, and persons with disabilities make up over 50 percent of Canada s skilled population. These Canadians represent a strategic resource to our rapidly growing knowledge based economy. Using an econometric model, the authors developed alternative scenarios up to forty years in the future. These scenarios show that the costs of labour market barriers to and under-utilization of these four key groups range between $72 billion and $236 billion annually, the equivalent of 6 to 20 percent of GDP. 4

10 Regardless of which scenario one examines, the message is clear: such barrier and underutilization patterns cost the Canadian economy money. With respect to visible minorities, it is important to recognize that close to 80 percent of all immigrants to Canada are now members of visible minorities. As for Aboriginal Peoples, they have the highest birth rate of any demographic group in Canadian society. Both groups will be among the demographic subpopulations examined in this report. Finally, it is obvious that education is critically linked to labour market outcomes. But the public educational system is not just about the economic side of the agenda, it is also about the highly important mission of fostering social cohesion in Canadian society. Canada is already an exceedingly multi-cultural society. It will become even more so as our immigration patterns continue to change. Immigrants have historically made, and continue to make, a significant contribution, both culturally and economically, to our nation. It is vital to recognize and value the wealth and diversity they bring to the fabric of Canadian society. It is also important that newcomers, indeed that all Canadians, develop a sense of what it means to be a Canadian, to develop a sense of not only their rights, but also their responsibilities. The Canadian public education system has a vital role to play in meeting this challenge. Societies that do not establish a basic level of social cohesion pay a high price in terms of family breakdown, substance abuse, crime, and other areas of social dysfunction. Establishing a basic level of social cohesion is certainly not to be confused with making everyone the same Canada, as a nation, is living proof of this assertion. Neither are human capital (economic) and social cohesion issues in competition. Economic opportunity and wellbeing make it much easier to achieve social cohesion. Conversely, social cohesion contributes to the effective and harmonious relationships that are productive of economic success. Both are important, legitimate objectives of the public education system. 5

11 2. Demographic Change and Canadian Public Education As the foregoing comments imply, Canada s public education system is a crucial part of the nation s institutional fabric. That education system, however, is facing unprecedented challenges from various forces of demographic change. The central purpose of this research report is to investigate certain of these demographic changes and assess their impacts on public education in Canada specifically, the K-12 component of the system. Like many developed countries in today s world, Canada is an aging society as a result of low birth rates and longer life expectancies. Population projections from Statistics Canada indicate that, in , there were 10.3 live births per 1,000 population. By , this is projected to decline to 10.0 births per 1,000 population (Statistics Canada, 2005, Cat. No XIE). Many factors influence the birth rate, notably more efficient contraception, an increasing proportion of women in the labour force, and the fact that more and more Canadians live in high-density urban centres. With respect to the aging society syndrome, data supplied by the Canadian Council on Learning show that, in 2003, 13 percent of Canadians were age 65 or older. This is projected to rise to 25.4 percent by The comparable percentages are 19.0% / 35.7% for Japan, 17.5% / 27.9% for Germany, and 16.3% / 26.4% for France. Low birth rates combined with population aging can lead to a shift in the dependency ratio of a nation, that is: the proportion of people who are no longer active in the economy (and receiving government income and social program benefits) becomes larger than the proportion of people who are active in the economy (and therefore contributing to the tax base that funds social security programs). We say can lead to a shift because, to some extent, the combined effects of low birth rates and population aging can be offset by factors such as immigration. However, in the absence of such population inflows, societies with negative dependency ratios face difficult policy options, such as scaling back on benefits, increasing taxation, or introducing user fees. 2 Close to 25% of Canada s population will be 65 years of age or older as early as 2031, according to Statistics Canada projections. 6

12 There is a strong tendency for citizens to come to view social program benefits as untouchable entitlements and policy change in this area is almost invariably politically disruptive and can even lead to social unrest an example being the recent public (at times violent) demonstrations in France over proposed pension reforms. As for Germany and Japan two other countries dealing with changing dependency ratios high level policy debates are underway with respect to the issues involved and there are real concerns about the management of possible political/civil destabilization. Although Canada also faces an increasingly aging population and a birth rate that will remain low and may decline further, our situation is somewhat better because, in part, we are a nation that is highly receptive to immigrants a position that cannot be readily attributed to France, Germany, and Japan (and other developed countries, for that matter). In the year 2000, 227,465 immigrants came to Canada. By 2005, this had risen to 262,236. Of this latter number, 59.6 percent were economic immigrants, 24.2 percent were admitted under the family re-unification program, 13.6 percent were refugees, and 2.5 percent fell into the miscellaneous other immigrants group. (Citizenship and Immigration Canada, 2004, 2006). As noted earlier in this chapter, nearly 80 percent of all immigrants to Canada are members of visible minority groups. Recent research (see Chapter 2) indicates that immigrants who are visible minorities experience more difficulty than immigrants who are not visible minorities in entering the economic mainstream of Canadian society. This obviously poses problems for the immigrants themselves as well as for their school-age children. For this reason, chapter 2 of this report which deals with demographic trends related to immigration will examine this research and also give special attention to analyses of the visible minority groups related to the immigrant population. 3 3 The term visible minority is used by Statistics Canada and the Employment Equity Branch of the Federal Government. Other terminology used throughout this report is also consistent with the terminology typically used by Statistics Canada. 7

13 In 2006, the school age population (defined as persons 5-19 years of age) numbered 6,092,000 or 18.7% of the total population in Canada. By 2021, this population is projected to decline to 5,716,600 or 15.6% of the total population. 4 This projected decline is a reflection of the low birth rate and aging population patterns already discussed in this chapter. Within the context of this overall decline, the population of persons of Aboriginal origin in the school age population is projected to increase from 5.6 percent in 2001 to 6.6 percent in 2016, a reflection of the relatively high birth rate in the Aboriginal sub-population as well as other factors that will be discussed in Chapter 3. Looking to the future, Canada, like other developed countries, will increasingly face the dependency ratio challenges arising from the population aging related to low birth rates and longer life expectancies. The nation will also face increasingly strong competition in a global economy that is driven by high value added knowledge industries. A major task for the public education system will be to increase its effectiveness in preparing young people for effective participation in that economy. Simply put and as noted earlier in this chapter we cannot afford to underutilize the contribution of any worker or would-be worker in our country. However, as we have also noted, human capital or economic issues are not alone on the agenda. There is also a pressing need to achieve and maintain an effective level of social cohesion in Canadian society that is consistent with our commitment to multiculturalism. The achievement of the latter is also, in large part, a task for the public education system. 3. An Overview of the Research Report In this final section of chapter 1, it is our intention to provide an overview of the six chapters that comprise the remainder of this report. First, however, it is necessary to identify the overall scope of the project, identify the three main areas of demographic change on which the research is focused, and set forward some comments on the general approach to the analyses presented. 4 Statistics Canada, 2005, Catalogue numbers XIE and XIE. 8

14 This research report is only part of a larger, five stage process. It was preceded by a design phase that determined appropriate strategies of analysis, availability of data, and the scoping out of issues pertaining to costs and feasibility. The second phase of the project involved the preparation of the research report in accordance with the specifications developed in the design phase. The core of the report is an analysis of selected demographic changes, supported by extensive use of charts and graphics, and an examination of the impact of these changes on educational outcomes. The research report also explores policy questions and options arising from the various analyses of original data. The target audience for the research report is researchers, academics, and persons in all levels of government. The second phase will also include the production of a discussion paper which will be an abbreviated version of the research report. Its form will be intentionally non-technical and it will serve as a background to the public consultation/public engagement process that comprises phase three of the project. The target audience for the discussion paper is educators, policy decision makers, parents and community and business leaders across the country. The third phase the public consultation/public engagement process referred to above will take place in selected locations across the country and will assume the form of roundtable discussions. The agenda for discussion will be significantly influenced by the types of demographic change and educational outcome impacts that are most likely to be relevant in a given location. A critical element of this phase of the project is to involve people from different backgrounds and with varied expertise in discussion about their experience regarding the impact on education of demographic change, exemplary practices, and potential policy directions. The fourth phase of the project will involve the production of a final report that will synthesize materials from the research report, the discussion paper, and the results obtained from the roundtable discussions. The central focus of this report will be a discussion of options for further action directed at a range of education, government, and community partners. This report will be broadly disseminated through a variety of media to stimulate national discussion. 9

15 The fifth and final stage of the project will be concerned with policy development. Meetings will be conducted with various levels of government across the country in order to stimulate the development of public policy on the relevant issues. In this research report, three areas of demographic change are explored: the immigrant population, the Aboriginal population, and Canada s rural population. As the foregoing discussion of population aging and dependency ratios makes clear, immigration is a key policy issue for Canadian society and requires a thorough examination in this research. Persons of Aboriginal origin in Canada have traditionally experienced socioeconomic disadvantage. Social and political concern about these issues has escalated in recent years and issues related to disadvantaged Aboriginal persons have increasingly been at the centre of policy debates and public demonstrations. The fact that the Aboriginal population has a high rate of fertility poses special challenges in terms of the increasing number of young Aboriginal persons entering the public educational system. This area clearly requires attention and analysis in this research report. Finally, although Canada is geographically a very large country, the majority of the population lives in a narrow band close to the Canada/U.S. border. Declines in primary industry employment and continuing urbanization have intensified this trend. There has been growing debate about what is happening to Canada s rural communities and whether or not rural infrastructure including public education is in decline. This research report examines the issues using some of the most recently available data. As with any exercise in social research, our investigations have been shaped by the availability of data. Regrettably, data are not always available in complete or consistent form. In our choice of data, we have made extensive use of information available from Statistics Canada. Canada s national statistical agency has a strong reputation for reliability and high quality control standards in its data products as well as being the repository for the largest collections of data relevant to this type of research. The terminology used in the text and in the tables and graphs are also consistent with that of Statistics Canada. Within these limitations, we have made an effort to present future trends as well as current perspectives. In addition, and again to the extent possible, we have endeavoured to present 10

16 geographical detail in the analyses. We now provide a brief overview of the issues addressed in each of the following chapters. Chapter 2 analyses immigration. Its starting point is an examination of recent trends in immigration to Canada which logically leads to an analysis of the changing composition of the immigrant population. Examined next is immigration and the visible minority status of the school age population, an issue of central importance given the large representation of visible minorities in the immigrant population. This is followed by a detailed examination of the language characteristics of the foreign-origin school age population. The final substantive section of the chapter examines the economic situation of immigrants, including some disturbing evidence that immigrants who are visible minorities experience more economic hardship than immigrants who are not visible minorities. Chapter 3 is concerned with an analysis of the Aboriginal population. The chapter presents a profile of the Aboriginal population in Canada. This is followed by an exploration of future demographic dynamics of the Aboriginal population, an issue of obvious importance given our earlier remarks pertaining to high Aboriginal birth rates and continuing Aboriginal socioeconomic disadvantage. With respect to the latter point, the chapter also presents data and commentary on the economic situation of Aboriginal persons. Chapter 4 examines Canada s rural population. The chapter s introductory comments lead to the first major substantive section which is a profiling of the Canadian rural population (with some regional disaggregation). Having established a profile foundation, the analysis proceeds to the dynamics of the issue, specifically, patterns of migration between rural and urban areas. Sub-detail is provided by age and educational attainment factors. The chapter then engages the complex issues of the rural economic situation and the sorts of rural development strategies that appear to have at least some relevance to maintaining rural economic viability. The chapter concludes with a discussion of data issues and selected policy questions. In this research study, demographic change is seen as the independent or driver variable while the dependent variable is viewed as the impact these demographic changes have on educational outcomes such as school performance, educational attainment, and the transition to 11

17 the labour market by young people. Chapter 5 examines these educational outcome impacts. The first three sections of the chapter examine the school performance of three key demographic sub-populations: visible minority and immigrant youth, Aboriginal youth, and young people in rural areas. Section 4 then proceeds to an in-depth examination of the educational and labour market success of visible minorities, immigrants generally, and Aboriginal persons. Recent and long term immigrants are also compared in detail. The chapter ends with a discussion of certain data limitation issues and policy questions and options arising from the analyses. Chapters 2 through 5 (immigration, Aboriginal persons, rural population, and educational outcomes) make it very clear that significant demographic changes are taking place in Canada and that these changes have important implications for our system of public education. The question then becomes, what sort of practice and policy actions might be appropriate in the face of these challenges? Chapter 6 presents a range of policy and practice options. Given the fundamental importance of the public consultation/public engagement component of this project, this chapter presents a range of policy/practice issues and questions as a guide to the dynamic discussions that will occur in various parts of the country. It has been designed to have the openness and flexibility that will be inviting of and responsive to the wide range of viewpoints and needs that characterize the diversity of Canadian public education. Such a strategy is the only way of building an enduring coalition that will have the prospect of achieving policy change. 12

18 CHAPTER 2: THE IMMIGRANT POPULATION As a major feature of the Canadian demographic dynamic, immigration continues to shape many aspects of the country s present and future. This chapter deals with the impact of continuing trends in immigration patterns on Canada s demography generally and on the evolution of the school-age population in particular. The first section of this chapter describes recent trends in immigration to Canada and basic socio-demographic characteristics of these newcomers with the use of national, provincial and metropolitan data. Utilizing census data, the second section analyzes the changing ethnocultural composition of immigrants to Canada since The section emphasizes the respective presence of immigrants and their distribution across regions and metropolitan areas and provides projections of future trends (up to 2017). In addition, there is a specific impact of Canadian-born children of visible minority immigrants, i.e. the second generation. The second generation population is relatively young (few are older than 25) and the characteristics of their integration in Canada are obviously different from their parents (Statistics Canada 2005a). At the same time they tend to follow a somewhat different path than young people born in Canada of Canadian parents. Their educational and economic successes will have a significant impact on the country s future. The focus of the third section is on the school-age population and how it is being affected by immigration trends. The fourth section uses the census data to establish a language portrait of the school-age population. The fifth section examines the socio-economic situation of immigrants and visible minority groups and includes comparisons between visible minority immigrants and those who are not visible minorities. 1. Recent trends in immigration to Canada The Government of Canada has used a point system since 1967 to recruit immigrants based on three general immigration categories: economic class immigrants, family class immigrants and refugees. When the system was first adopted, one of the goals was to increase the share of skilled immigrants to Canada relative to those selected on the basis of family reunification considerations. In 1978 a new Immigration Act defined three main goals of Canada s immigration policy: to facilitate the reunion of families, to accept refugees according to 13

19 international legal obligations of Canada, and to foster the economic development of the country and its regions (Green & Green, 2004). According to the statistics on permanent residents 5 published by Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC), Canada received almost 225,000 immigrants annually between 1990 and 2004, representing about.7% of the total Canadian population each year. The number and percentage have been fairly stable since the early 1990 s when compared with the 1980 s (see chart 2.1). Chart 2.1: Number of new immigrants and percentage of the total Canadian population, Number Percentage % Source: CIC, 2005 Most of these immigrants are adults and almost half of them are between 25 and 44 years old (chart 2.2). The population of children (0 14 years) represents more than 20% of the total. Estimates for 2001 indicate that the median age of new immigrants was approximately 24 years, as compared to the median age of the Canadian born population, which was approximately 34 years. It is notable that the median age of all immigrants in 2001 was 45 years. 5 Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) uses the expression permanent residents to mean new immigrants into Canada. CIC defines permanent residents as people who have been granted permanent resident status in Canada. In this report we use immigrant as a synonym to permanent resident. All characteristics presented in this section are those registered or reported at the moment of landing (when granted permanent residence status). 14

20 Chart 2.2: Distribution of new immigrants by age groups, (percentages) 65+ Age groups Source: CIC, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2004, Percent The distribution of these immigrants across provinces is uneven. Ontario has clearly dominated in the number of immigrants received in recent decades: around 120,000 per year since Quebec and British Columbia are second to Ontario with some 40,000 arriving annually (chart 2.3). Alberta ranks fourth, followed by Manitoba. The other provinces and territories receive considerably fewer immigrants, ranging from a couple of thousand to less than 200 annually in the case of the territories and Prince-Edward-Island. 15

21 Chart 2.3: Number of new immigrants by province and territory, Note differences in scale among the graphs. Panel A Quebec Ontario Alberta BC Panel B NS Manitoba Saskat. Panel C NFLD PEI NB Yukon NWT Source: CIC, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2004, 2005 Note: Nunavut is included in the data for the Northwest Territories. 16

22 Ontario welcomed more than half the immigrants who entered Canada between 1990 and 2004, whereas British Columbia and Quebec received 18% and 16% respectively. Consequently, 11.6% of all newcomers chose the rest of the country as their intended destination. (Chart 2.4, Panel A). When compared with the total population, the picture is a little different (chart 2.4, Panel B). The immigration rate during the period is high and quite similar for Ontario and British Columbia. These two provinces each receive an average of 1.1% (or 11 per 1,000) of their total population from immigration. They are followed by Alberta, Quebec and Manitoba which receive each year the equivalent of 0.5% of their total population. Saskatchewan and the Atlantic provinces receive much less, below 0.2% of their total population. Chart 2.4: Distribution of new immigrants by province and territory of intended destination, (Panel A); and immigration rate, (per people) for provinces and territories of intended destination (Panel B) Panel A NWT Yukon BC Alberta Saskat. Manitoba Ontario Quebec NB NS PEI NFLD Percent 17

23 Panel B NWT Yukon BC Alberta Saskat. M anitoba Ontario Quebec NB NS PEI NFLD Per 1,000 Source: CIC, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2004, 2005 Note: Nunavut is included in the data for the Northwest Territories. Immigrants tend also to choose the three largest metropolitan areas in Canada: Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver (chart 2.5). These three cities received 75% of all immigrants who landed in Canada between 1990 and The next urban centers of destination are Calgary, Ottawa, and Edmonton with less than 4% each. The rest of the country, outside the 12 Canadian largest urban centres, received only 10% of the immigrants to Canada. It is interesting to note, however, that more immigrants are choosing rural regions, especially in the Western provinces, than they did in the past (Beshiri 2004). 18

24 Chart 2.5: Distribution of new immigrants by selected metropolitan areas of intended destination, period Rest of the country Quebec London Kitchener Windsor Hamilton Winnipeg Edmonton Ottaw a Calgary Montreal Vancouver Toronto Percent Source: CIC, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2004, 2005 This concentration of the new immigrant population in selected provinces and urban centers is accentuated further by the internal migration of immigrants after landing. This process tends to increase the geographical concentration of immigrants in Ontario and British Columbia, and in the three main urban centers to the detriment of the Atlantic Provinces, Quebec outside Montreal, and the three Prairies provinces (CIC 2000; Hou & Bourne 2004; Hou 2005). As mentioned earlier, the three basic immigration categories as determined by Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) include: economic class immigrants, family class immigrants and refugees. 6 Over the past 10 years, there has been a clear shift towards economic immigrants who, since 1995, have constituted more than 50% of all new immigrants (see chart 2.6). In comparison, the family class has represented 25% of all entries and refugees just over 10%. The increase in the number of immigrants that took place in the early 1990 s has come essentially from an absolute rise in the economic immigrant category while the size of the other two categories has remained fairly constant during the period Appendix 2.1 details 6 For a detailed outline of immigration categories and sub-categories please see Appendix. 19

25 the different groups of immigrants in each category according to the classification used by CIC. Chart 2.6: Number of immigrants by category, Other immigrants Refugees Economic immigrants Family class Source: CIC, 2004 & 2005 All regions of the country received immigrants from each of the categories (chart 2.7). There are differences, however, by province. In British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Nova Scotia approximately 10% of immigrants were refugees whereas 30% of immigrants to Saskatchewan and the other Atlantic provinces were in the refugee category. Quebec and Manitoba have occupied an intermediate position and both provinces received a more balanced proportion of the three categories of immigrants. British Columbia and Nova Scotia have also attracted a larger share of economic immigrants than other regions, comprising more than 60% of their total. 20

26 Chart 2.7: Distribution of immigrants by category, Canadian regions, period BC Alberta Saskat. Manitoba Ontario Quebec Other Atlantic N. Scotia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent Economic immigrants Family class Refugees Other immigrants Source: CIC, 2004 & 2005 The statistics on permanent residents published by CIC allows for the study of basic social characteristics of the new immigrants including their level of education, their source country (the immigrant s last country of residence before coming to Canada) and their knowledge of Canada s official languages. One of the consequences of changing the recruitment strategy of immigrants to Canada to attract more economic immigrants was to increase the general level of education required of new immigrants. This factor reinforced the existing selection policy which focused on immigrants skills. There is a striking difference in education attainment between economic immigrants on one side and family class and refugees on the other. Economic immigrants, including their spouses and dependants (15 years of age and older), have a significantly higher level of education than family class immigrants and refugees (chart 2.8). The percentage of economic immigrants with university education is 70% for principal applicants and 40% for their spouses and dependants, whereas it is less than 20% for family class immigrants and even lower for refugees. 21

27 Chart 2.8: Distribution of immigrants by category of immigrant and level of education, peo 15 years of age and older, Canada, Refugees Category Economic (s.d.) Economic (p.a.) Family No Diploma Trade (v.t.) Non-Univ. Dipl. Bachelor Superior 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent Note: p.a. means principal applicant; s.d. means spouses and dependants Source: CIC, 2004 & 2005 The evolution of the number of immigrants in the economic category and in the family class and refugee categories by level of education shows how recent policy trends have affected the general level of education of the immigrant population in Canada. Two factors lead to an increased level of education of the immigrant population: an increase in the absolute number of economic immigrants, as well as an increase in the number of family class/refugee immigrants with higher education. The immigrant population without a school diploma or with only a trade (vocational training) diploma has decreased or at best stabilized over the period in both groups of immigrants, while the number of immigrants with a university diploma has been increasing. 22

28 Chart 2.9: Number of immigrants by category and level of education, people 15 years of age and older, Canada, Economic immigrants No Diploma Trade (v.t.) Non-Univ. Dipl. Bachelor Superior Family class and refugees No Diploma Trade (v.t.) Non-Univ. Dipl. Bachelor Superior Source: CIC, 2004 & 2005 The impact of this particular evolution of the immigrant population in terms of parental education levels on the school-age population is noteworthy. A population with a higher level of education should have a positive effect on their children. It should facilitate the children s integration into the Canadian society in terms of their knowledge of French or English, their school performance, and their successful transition to the labour market. Immigrants country of origin is another factor that bears analyzing. During the period , there was no significant change in the composition of immigrants according to their 23

29 country of origin. Asia remains the main source area with 120,000 new immigrants each year (about 50% of the total). The only source area that is increasing is Africa and the Middle East (chart 2.10). Chart 2.10: Number of immigrants by source area, Canada, Africa & Mid. East Asia & Pacific Latin America USA & Europe Source: CIC, 2004 & 2005 There is, however, an interesting trait by province of destination. From West to East, the proportion of Asians diminishes while the proportion of Africans and immigrants from the Middle East increases (chart 2.11). The percentage of other immigrant groups (from Latin America, Europe and the USA) does not vary so systematically between provinces. In Quebec the highest proportion of new immigrants came from Latin America and the Caribbean. In the Atlantic provinces (without Nova Scotia) the majority of immigrants came from Europe and the USA. More than 70% of British Columbia s new immigrants landed from Asia. In Nova Scotia, by contrast, 50% of newcomers originated in Africa and the Middle East. 7 7 Immigration routes would have an impact on settlement patterns in Canada, a topic that merits further investigation. 24

30 Chart 2.11: Number of immigrants by source area, Canadian regions, BC Alberta Saskat. Manitoba Ontario Quebec Africa & Mid. East Asia & Pacific Latin America USA & Europe Other Atlantic N. Scotia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent Source: CIC, 2004 & 2005 Finally, the data published by the CIC provides information on the language ability in one of Canada s two official languages at the time of landing. This information is based on selfdeclaration, rather than on the result of an independent language test. As demonstrated in the following chart, immigrants knowledge of either of the two official languages remained stable during the 11-year period at around 55%. Increasing levels of education among immigrants did not translate into better knowledge of French or English; indeed, knowledge of official languages has declined among economic immigrants. This decline will have a variety of implications for Canada s education system and economy including such factors as literacy skills, labour market integration and skills shortages, to name just a few. 25

31 Chart 2.12: Percentage of immigrants knowing French or English by immigrant category, Percent Family Economic Refugees All new immigrants Source: CIC, 2004 & The changing composition of the immigrant population The first section of this chapter focused on the recent evolution of the new immigrants coming to Canada. This section focuses on the immigrant population in Canada as well as with the visible minority population. The growing number of people with a visible minority identity is a direct and indirect consequence of the immigration process. There are currently substantial numbers of individuals who are born in Canada and who are visible minorities. This issue must be addressed in any survey of immigration in Canada, as discussed earlier. The upcoming analysis compares these two groups with the Canadian-born population over a 30- year period, beginning in 1986 with projections to Canada is a country of immigration. At the last census in 2001, there were 5.4 million immigrants living in Canada, a number representing 18.4% of the total Canadian population. This figure places Canada among the OECD countries with the highest proportion of immigrants together with Australia (23%), Switzerland (22.4%), Germany (12.5%), and the 26

32 USA (12.3%) 8. Within Canada, Ontario and British Columbia have even higher percentages with immigrants representing 30% of their provincial populations (chart 2.13). Chart 2.13: Immigrants in Canada and regions. Total population and percentage of the total population, and projections Panel A 8000 Number Population in thousands Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Panel B Percent Percent Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Source: Statistics Canada, censuses, Cat. No. 97F0009XCB , and Statistics Canada, Cat No X Trends for the near future (up to 2017) point to a growing number of immigrants and an increasing percentage of the total Canadian population: by 2017, more than 7.6 million immigrants are expected to be living in Canada, an absolute increase of more than 2 million 8 Data taken from OECD web site ( 27

33 compared with 2001, and these immigrants will represent 22.2% of the total population 9. Similar trends are expected in Canadian regions: 30% of the total population of Ontario and British Columbia will be immigrants by More than 40% of all immigrants in Canada will be living in Ontario, 22% in Quebec, 13% in British Columbia and 10% in Alberta. The increasing immigration to Canada is accentuating the concentration of immigrants in a few regions in the country. New immigrants tend to choose large urban centers, especially Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. It follows that these three cities have a high proportion of Canada s immigrant population. The number of immigrants is expected to grow, especially in Toronto and Vancouver (chart 2.14). Toronto s immigrant population, already the largest in Canada, should increase by one million between 2001 and Vancouver is expected to exceed one million immigrants by Montreal and Calgary have a slower dynamic growth. Montreal is not expected to reach one million immigrants by Winnipeg and Edmonton will likely experience a small or no increase of their immigrant population in the next 15 years. Chart 2.14: Immigrants in selected metropolitan areas. Total population and percentage of the total population, projections Panel A Number Rest of the country Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Winnipeg Ottawa Toronto Montreal Population in thousands Projections of immigrants and visible minorities are taken from Statistics Canada, Population projections of visible minority groups, Canada, provinces and regions, , Cat. No XIE, We use only scenario B or the reference scenario which projects into the future the trends observed in the 2001 Census or in previous years for immigration, fertility, mortality, internal migrations and emigration (p. 6). 28

34 Panel B Percent Rest of the country Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Winnipeg Ottawa Toronto Montreal Percent Source: Statistics Canada, Cat. No XIE In terms of the percentage of their entire urban populations, Toronto and Vancouver stand alone in the Canadian scene. In Vancouver the immigrant population is expected to count for more than 40% of the total population whereas in Toronto the expectation is close to 50% by Ottawa, Calgary and Montreal could have between 20% and 25% of immigrants by Conversely, in the rest of the country including other urban and rural areas, 10% of the population will be immigrants by 2017, a level comparable to the Prairies and the Atlantic region. It is well-known that few immigrants settle in Quebec outside Montreal. Winnipeg and Edmonton are expected to experience a small diminution of the percentage of their immigrant populations by Like the immigrant population as a whole, the population of visible minorities is increasing rapidly in Canada. 10 Chart 2.15 displays two figures concerning the geographical distribution of the visible minority population without distinguishing any particular origins. The picture is similar to that of the immigrant population. It is anticipated that there will be 7 million individuals belonging to one of the visible minority groups by The increase since The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-caucasian in race or non-white in colour". The visible minority population includes the following groups: Chinese, South Asian, Black, Filipino, Latin American, Southeast Asian, Arab, West Asian, Japanese, Korean and Pacific Islander. 29

35 would be 3 million, one million more than the expected increase of the immigrant population during the same period. The percentage of the total population with a visible minority identity would follow a comparable path: from 13% in 2001 to 20% in 2017, that is, one person out of five would have a visible minority identity in Canada. There is a concentration of visible minorities in a few places: mostly Ontario and British Columbia, and specifically Toronto and Vancouver. It is interesting to note that by 2017 half the population of Toronto and Vancouver and 30% of the population of their respective provinces will be comprised of visible minorities. Ontario will count more than four million individuals with some visible minority origin, and British Columbia almost 1.5 million. Chart 2.15: Visible minority population in regions and selected metropolitan areas. Total population and percentage over the total population, projections Rest country Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Winnipeg Ottawa Toronto M ontreal Rest country Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Winnipeg Ottawa Toronto M ontreal Canada BC Alberta Canada BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Population in thousands Percent Source: Statistics Canada, Cat. No XIE We can thus assert that one of the most striking features of the evolution of the Canadian population in the past decades has been the increase of visible minorities and the demographic 30

36 weight they have and will continue to maintain in the country. As indicated, the members of these minorities were not all immigrants; some were born in Canada. This group is not yet numerically significant but it is growing in size as well as in percentage of the total Canadian population (chart 2.16). We have no projection for this level of desegregation, but data from the last four censuses enable some probable projections. All four groups 11, with the exception of immigrants who are not visible minorities, grew between 1986 and However, only the two visible minority groups (immigrant and Canadian-born) have gained relative demographic weight in the Canadian population during the last 15 years. The percentage of non visible minority immigrants in the total population has declined during this period. The Canadian-born population who identify themselves as a visible minority constituted 1.1 million individuals in 2001, 3.9% of the total population of the country. In 1986, there were half a million representing 2% of the Canadian populations. Of primary significance for this paper is the age of this population, which is relatively young, an issue that is examined in greater detail in the next section. Chart 2.16: Number and percentage distribution of the population by immigrant and visible minority status, Canada, Panel A Population VisMin Immigrant NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Can.-Born NonVisMin Can.-Born Population in thousands 11 The four groups are Canadian-born with no visible minority identity, Canadian-born with visible minority identity, immigrants with no visible minority identity and immigrants with visible minority identity. 31

37 Panel B Percentage VisMin Immigrant NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Can.-Born NonVisMin Can.-Born Percent Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files 12 Note: NonVisMin = non visible minority; VisMin = visible minority The picture is equally striking when analyzed by regions and selected metropolitan areas. When we combine immigrants and visible minorities (immigrant and Canadian-born), we obtain a portrait of a population with a largely foreign-born origin (Chart 2.17). In Toronto and Vancouver, the foreign-born origin population represents 50% of the total population in 2001 (note that the scale in chart 2.17 begins at 30%, not at 0%), of which 10% are Canadianborn with a visible minority identity. In Ontario and British Columbia, the percentage of the population with a foreign-born origin is more than 30%. Other important concentrations of foreign-origin populations are found in the largest metropolitan areas (Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton) and even in the urban corridor between Niagara and Kitchener in Southern Ontario. 12 PUM files mean: Public Use Microdata Files. These files released by Statistics Canada for research purposes provide a sample of individualized records randomly extracted from each census. The sample size may vary from one census to another, but it is around 2% of the total population. 32

38 Chart 2.17: Percentage distribution of the population of region and selected metropolitan areas by immigrant and visible minority status, 2001 Rest of the country Vancouver Edmonton Calgary Regina & Saskatoon Winnipeg Niagara-Kitchener Toronto Ottawa-Gatineau M ontreal BC Alberta NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census PUM Files Note: Niagara-Kitchener refers to the corridor Niagara, St-Catherines, Hamilton and Kitchener. NonVisMin = non visible minority; VisMin = visible minority The distribution of visible minority groups by specific identities shows that just a few groups make up the majority of the visible minority population (chart 2.18). Chinese, South Asians (Indian sub-continent) and Blacks constitute no less than 50% of the population of visible minorities. Asia actually constitutes the continent of origin with the highest representation in Canada with close to 70% of all visible minorities. The concentration of these few groups in the same region is significant for British Columbia, Ontario and the Atlantic. In British Columbia, visible minorities include more than 40% of Chinese, whereas in Atlantic Canada, Blacks are the majority among people with visible minority identity. The situation is more balanced in Ontario where almost 70% of all visible minority individuals belong to the three most numerous groups present in Canada (Chinese, South Asian and Black people). 33

39 In the other regions, notably in Quebec, the distribution of visible minority groups offers a more balanced picture. In the Prairies, Filipinos constitute almost 30% of visible minorities, which is three times more than in any other region. In Quebec, the relative presence of Latin Americans, Southeast Asians and Arabs is higher than anywhere else in Canada. Chart 2.18: Percentage distribution of visible minority groups in Canadian regions, 2001 Canada BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Chinese South Asian Black Filipino Latin American Southeast Asian Arab West Asian Others Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0010XCB Immigration and visible minority status of the school-age population A significant characteristic of the recent evolution of immigration to Canada is the growing number of visible minority people born in Canada. This pattern affects many visible minority youth as they tend to be the children of visible minority immigrants who are relatively recent arrivals in Canada and are of child-bearing age. Given the recent growth of young people in this population and that total population projections indicate that immigrants (visible minority or not) will be an important contributor when seniors outnumber children by 2015, it is worth examining the fertility levels of visible minorities Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2005 to 2031 ( XIE) 34

40 For visible minorities as a whole, the total fertility rate (TFR), or the number of children per woman, is 1.70; TFR is 1.51 for those who are not of the visible minority population (chart 2.19). Arabs have the highest fertility rate (2.6 children per woman) followed by South Asians (2.0). With the exception of Chinese and West Asians, the groups whose TFR values are displayed in chart 2.19 have higher fertility rates than those who are not visible minorities in Canada. Chart 2.19: Total fertility rate of main visible minority groups in Canada, Arab South Asian Latin American Filipino Black Southeast Asian West Asian Chinese All visible minorities Non-visible populaton Total Fertility Rate Source: Malenfant et al, 2005 This fertility differential between visible minority groups and those who are not visible minorities has an impact on the demographic dynamics of the Canadian population. Between 1986 and 2001, the increase of visible minority groups has come from immigration through the arrival of significant numbers of new immigrants (see section 3) and through a higher fertility rate than the Canadian average. Both sources of growth are reflected in population pyramids (chart 2.20). Demographic pyramids offer a picture of the population at one point in time according to sex (on each side of the same chart) and age (appearing in rows). To the usual pyramid, we have added the categories of immigrant and visible minority status indicated by blue and red colors: light blue refers to Canadian-born with no visible minority identity, bright blue to Canadian-born with visible minority identity, light red (pink) to immigrant with no visible minority identity and bright red refers to immigrant with visible minority identity. 35

41 Pyramids are given for the entire country and for Toronto, the urban agglomeration with the largest concentration of immigrants, visible minorities and Canadian-born population in the country. Chart 2.20: Distribution of the population (in thousands) by sex, age group and immigrant and visible minority status, Canada and Metropolitan Toronto, 1986 and 2001 Canada Male Female Male Female Toronto Metropolitan Area Male Female Male Female Source: Statistics Canada, 1986 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files Note: for legend of colors, see text or see chart 2.17 in section 2 The increase of both immigrants and visible minorities between 1986 and 2001 is clearly indicated in these charts for Canada as a whole. The demographic weight of these groups in the metropolitan area of Toronto is also indicated. Although these trends have been discussed in the previous section, two additional points are warranted: First, the form of the Canadianborn (in blue) and the immigrant (in red) pyramids are radically different. In the first case, the age-sex structure resembles a real pyramid with population in all age-sex groups and a progressive reduction of population size from around the age group of year-olds. By contrast, the immigrant pyramid takes the form of a spinning top with a concentration of the 36

42 population in the adult ages and few people in both younger and older age groups. This spinning top form is particularly pronounced for Toronto in The second point that emerges from the demographic pyramids is the different structure between visible minority Canadian-born populations and those who are not visible minorities. Visible minority people born in Canada are currently very young. The mean age of this group was 15 in 2001, compared with 36 for those who were not visible minorities. The mean age of immigrants who were not visible minorities was 52 and for those with visible minority identity, the mean age was 39. Between 1986 and 2001, the mean age of the Canadian-born visible minority individuals remained stable while it increased by three years for all other categories. The formation of the age-sex pyramids reflects the recent demographic evolution of school-age population groups (chart 2.21). The groups whose population increased between 1986 and 2001 are essentially those formed by visible minorities, whether immigrant or Canadian-born. Their population doubled and even tripled during the period. The population of youths who were not visible minorities, and in particular those born in Canada, decreased or tended to stabilize to the 1996 level. These evolutions parallel the growth of the total population of immigrants and visible minorities. The impact of the evolution of the school-age population is greater in regions and cities where the immigrants are more numerous. In the urban centers of Toronto and Vancouver, almost half the core school-age population (ages 5 to 18) was immigrant and / or had a visible minority identity in 2001 (chart 2.22). This percentage was also high in most other metropolitan areas (between 15% and 22%) and was slightly higher (25%) in Ontario and British Columbia (2001). 37

43 Chart 2.21: Recent evolution of the population of school-age groups by immigrant and visible minority status, Canada, NonVisMin Canadian-Born VisMin Canadian-Born Population Age groups Population Age groups NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant Population Age groups Population Age groups Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files Note: NonVisMin = non visible minority; VisMin = visible minority This evolution accentuates the differences between regions and cities. The percentage of the school-age population from immigrant/visible minority origins is increasing faster in some places than in others: this is the case in Ontario, British Columbia and even Quebec, and especially in the urban agglomerations of Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa. Elsewhere in Canada the trend is much less rapid. It is flat in the Prairies and the Atlantic provinces and in non-metropolitan areas in general. In this respect, Regina-Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Edmonton show an evolution that is similar to non-metropolitan areas. 38

44 Chart 2.22: Percentage of the immigrants and visible minority groups in the population aged 5-18, regions and selected metropolitan areas, % 50 Regions 40 Atlantic 30 Quebec Ontario 20 Prairies Alberta 10 BC Canada % Cities Montreal Ottaw a-gatineau Toronto Niagara-Kitchener Winnipeg Regina & Saskatoon Calgary Edmonton Vancouver Rest of the country Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files The demographics of the school-age population are shifting. More and more pupils will be immigrants and / or will have a visible minority identity in the near future, and this situation will have its own distinct characteristics. One of these characteristics is, as we have seen, the geographical concentration of this population group (by 2017 half the population of Toronto and Vancouver is projected to have a visible minority origin), which should increase further its visibility in all spheres of life, including the education system in the major urban centres. There is a growing body of research on the concentration of specific groups in city neighbourhood enclaves. The number of ethnic enclaves in Canada s three largest cities 39

45 increased from six to 254 between 1981 and (Recent immigration and the formation of visible minority neighbourhoods in Canada s largest cities, Statistics Canada, 2004). It is interesting to note that Toronto and Vancouver had 100 enclaves each while Montreal had only eight. The concentration of specific groups, in Canada s large cities in particular, is of particular relevance to neighbourhood schools, especially in low income neighbourhoods. 4. Language characteristics of the foreign-origin school-age population Canadian censuses provide information on three basic aspects of language: the knowledge of official languages (French and English), the mother tongue and the home language. We use two of these three elements to examine the language characteristics of the school-age population: mother tongue (first language) and home language. We disregard the knowledge of official languages because the great majority of the population of immigrants (visible minority members and those who are not visible minorities) below 50 years of age declare having the ability to conduct a conversation in English or French. Note that data for the youngest age group (0-4 year-olds) are not provided in charts dealing with language. In censuses, home language refers to the language spoken most often at home by the individual at the time of the census, while mother tongue refers to the first language learned at home in childhood and still understood by the individual at the time of the census (Statistics Canada, 2001 Census Dictionary, Internet version at The steady increase of immigration to Canada, with a significant number from non-englishspeaking countries, has produced changes in the language equilibrium in Canada since Immigrants tend to have less contact with one of the two Canadian official languages than the Canadian-born. Many do not have French or English as their mother tongue (chart 2.23); and fewer use French or English at home (chart 2.24). The evolution of time obviously reflects the immigration trends experienced by Canada in the recent past. The proportion of immigrants and visible minorities with one of the two official languages as mother tongue has decreased between 1986 and For the group with the lowest percentage, visible minority immigrants, only 20% to 25% has French or English as 40

46 mother tongue in This percentage is significantly higher (about 60% - 78%) for visible minorities born in Canada. Immigrants who are not visible minorities fall between these two groups. A reduction of the percentage by up to 30% (in the case of immigrants aged in 2001) is observed in relation to Canadian-born visible minorities have followed the same path but with a less pronounced drop of this percentage (5%-12%). Chart 2.23: Percentage of the population having French or English as mother tongue, by immigrant/visible minority status, selected age groups, Canada, year-olds year-olds 100 % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born 100 % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant year-olds 25 year-olds and over 100 % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant 100 % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files Note: NonVisMin = non visible minority; VisMin = visible minority In general, immigrants are more likely to have French or English as their home language than to have them as their mother tongue. For the four age groups, at least 40% of people live in a household where French or English is the home language. As for mother tongue, one can note similar differences between the immigrants and the visible minority groups. However, the evolution between 1986 and 2001 has been much smoother than for mother tongue. For the whole group aged 25 years and over and for Canadian-born visible-minorities in general, the 41

47 percentage using French or English at home did not change significantly during that 15-year period. A change is observed for the immigrant population aged years which has experienced a drop in official languages spoken at home between 1986 and Chart 2.24: Percentage of the population having French or English as home language, by immigrant/visible minority status, selected age groups, Canada, year-olds year-olds % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant year-olds 25 year-olds and over 100 % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant 100 % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files Note: NonVisMin = non visible minority; VisMin = visible minority Even though immigration is changing the language composition of the Canadian population trends in home language use do not strictly follow the trends indicated by the growth of foreign mother tongues spoken in the country. The actual languages spoken at home seem less resilient to the linguistic diversification brought about by the immigration process. When one evolves from a specific mother tongue to a different home language, it is said that linguistic assimilation has taken place at some point. The reasons for such an evolution are diverse, but the fact is that this linguistic assimilation from foreign mother tongues to official 42

48 Canadian home languages is operating for the four immigrant/visible minority groups (chart 2.25). Chart 2.25: Percentage of the population aged 5-24 year-olds with a foreign mother tongue who has French or English as home language, by immigrant/visible minority status, Canada, % NonVisMin Can.-Born VisMin Can.- Born NonVisMin Immigrant VisMin Immigrant Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Censuses PUM Files Note: In the count of the population who changed to French or English, we subtracted those who changed from French or English to a foreign language. This percentage is intending to measure the net linguistic assimilation to one of the two Canadian official languages. NonVisMin = non visible minority; VisMin = visible minority The levels of linguistic assimilation in Canada are noticeable. For Canadian-born, 2001 levels are between 35% and 50%; this means that in the case of Canadians who are not visible minorities, linguistic assimilation to one of the two official languages affects half of the people for whom neither English nor French is their mother tongue, (i.e. European immigrants children). Linguistic assimilation is lower for immigrants in general, with a percentage of just over 20%, especially for immigrants with a visible minority identity. The evolution is also significant. After a sharp increase between 1986 and 1991 for three of the four groups, the level has grown much slower and seems to have reached a ceiling of 30% for visible minority individuals born in Canada. However, the trend appears as a stalled progression in recent years of linguistic assimilation among immigrants and visible minorities. The reasons for this have to be found in the swift increase of the absolute number of immigrants that has taken place since the end of the eighties. One may ask how this situation is affecting the educational and labour market outcomes of these young immigrants and members of visible minority groups. 43

49 5. The economic situation of immigrants This section examines the socioeconomic situation of immigrants in Canada, Ontario and the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) in terms of unemployment rate, employment income and proportion below the poverty line. Two recent studies have looked at these issues: the analysis by E.B. Harvey and B. Siu compared visible minority immigrants and immigrants who are not visible minorities in Toronto, Ontario and Canada up to 1996 and the study by Michael Orenstein considered data up to 2001, focusing specifically on Toronto. Comparisons showed that, overall, the socioeconomic situation of visible minority immigrants worsened during the five-year period between 1991 and 1996: their employment income levels dropped and more were living below the poverty line. Their unemployment rates were relatively stable. In contrast, aspects of the socioeconomic situation of immigrants who were not visible minorities improved in that they earned more and had lower unemployment rates. However, more of them were living below the poverty line. Comparisons of immigrants who are visible minorities and those who are not are based on 1991 and 1996 Census data for landed immigrants 15 years old and over. Visible minority immigrants comprise the following groups: Black, South Asian, Chinese, Korean, Japanese, South East Asian, West Asian, Filipino and Latin American (of visible minority backgrounds). Immigrants who are not visible minorities comprise the following groups: Northern European, Western European, Eastern European, Southern European, British, French, British/French and Latin American (of non-visible minority backgrounds). The socioeconomic situation of immigrants is measured by their (a) unemployment rates, (b) average employment incomes, and (c) poverty lines (as defined by the low-income cut-off or LICO rates developed by Statistics Canada). LICO is used as a proxy measure of poverty when the family expenditure for basic necessities exceeds 70% of economic family income. In this analysis, the 1991 average employment incomes have been standardized to the 1996 Census of Canada basis. 44

50 The first stage of analysis focuses on comparing, for 1991 and 1996, the socioeconomic situations of visible minority immigrants and immigrants who are not visible minorities in Canada, Ontario and the Toronto CMA. As illustrated in Tables 2.26, 2.27, and 2.28, although there were some slight differences at the three levels of geography, the patterns were quite similar: Visible minority immigrants were more disadvantaged than immigrants who were not visible minorities. According to Harvey and Siu they had higher unemployment rates, lower employment incomes and a greater incidence of poverty during both census periods. At the national level, between 1991 and 1996, visible minority immigrants improved slightly in their unemployment rate, but their rate of improvement was smaller than that of other immigrants. A higher proportion of these two groups of immigrants fell below the poverty line in The rate of becoming poorer was higher for the visible minority immigrants. In addition, visible minority immigrants employment income dropped while that of immigrants who are not visible minorities increased. In Ontario and in the Toronto CMA, similar patterns are found. The only exception is that the unemployment rate for visible minority immigrants increased slightly, whereas that of other immigrants decreased. The second stage of analysis focuses on the magnitude of socioeconomic disadvantages as they relate to periods of immigration. Two groups of immigrants who landed in five periods are compared: ; ; ; and Using periods of immigration, comparisons are made with regard to the socioeconomic situation of visible minority immigrants and immigrants who are not visible minorities in terms of three reference points: National averages of the total population in Canada; national averages of immigrant population; national averages of non-immigrant population. The results indicate that visible minority immigrants experience persistent, severe and widespread disadvantages. Compared with immigrants who are not visible minorities, more of the visible minority immigrants have higher unemployment rates that have persisted for 35 years; have lower employment incomes persisting over 35 years; and have experienced higher poverty levels for 35 years. The results also show that the more recent immigrants (those who arrived in Canada within the five years preceding 1996) tended to have higher unemployment 45

51 rates, lower employment incomes, and higher incidences of poverty than those immigrants who had been in Canada for a longer period of time. In sum, the socioeconomic situation for immigrants who are not visible minorities improved from 1991 to 1996 while the socioeconomic situation for visible minority immigrants worsened. The information in the following table and in the foregoing analyses takes us up to Information that goes on to 2001 is provided by the work Ethno-Racial Groups in Toronto, : A Demographic and Socio-Economic Profile by Michael Ornstein. Table 2.1:Average Unemployment Rate, Average Employment Income and Average Percent Below the Low Income Cut-Off (LICO) for Visible Minority Immigrants and Immigrants Who Are Not Visible Minorities, Canada, 1991 and 1996 INDICATOR Visible Minority Immigrants Immigrants Who Are Not Visible Minorities AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT INCOME $24,380 $23,298 $30,285 $31,194 AVERAGE PERCENT BELOW THE LOW INCOME CUT-OFF (LICO) 25.1% 34.3% 14.4% 17.8% Source: Census of Canada, 1991 AND Table 2.2: Average Unemployment Rate, Average Employment Income and Average Percent Below the Low Income Cut-Off (LICO) for Visible Minority Immigrants and Immigrants Who Are Not Visible Minorities, Ontario, 1991 and 1996 Visible Minority Immigrants Immigrants Who Are Not Visible INDICATOR Minorities AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT INCOME $25,603 $24,820 $30,419 $32,411 AVERAGE PERCENT BELOW THE LOW INCO 21.4% 32.3% 12.4% 16.0% CUT-OFF (LICO) Source: Census of Canada, 1991 AND Table 2.3: Average Unemployment Rate, Average Employment Income and Average Percent Below the Low Income Cut-Off (LICO) for Visible Minority Immigrants and Immigrants Who Are Not Visible Minorities, Toronto CMA, 1991 and 1996 Visible Minority Immigrants Immigrants Who Are Not Visible INDICATOR Minorities AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT INCOME $25,919 $24,606 $30,587 $33,600 AVERAGE PERCENT BELOW THE LOW 20.9% 32.5% 13.7% 18.3% INCOME CUT-OFF (LICO) Source: Census of Canada, 1991 AND

52 Unlike Harvey and Siu s analyses, which included Canada, Ontario, and the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), Ornstein s work is focused specifically on the Toronto CMA. In overall terms, Ornstein s work also finds that visible minority immigrants are more at risk of low income, poverty, and employment disadvantage. He also finds that refugees are very much at risk of enduring disadvantage. Although, as noted above, Ornstein s work is concerned with the Toronto CMA, there is little reason to assume that such patterns would be significantly different in other geographical areas (an inference supported by the geographically broader work carried out by Harvey and Siu). These issues assume particular significance given that such a large majority of immigrants to Canada are members of visible minorities. 6. Conclusion This chapter has presented basic trends in immigration to Canada. The current situation and the projections for upcoming years indicate that: The immigration rate to Canada is high and will remain so at least for the next 15 years. One of the main features of this immigration is an increase in the visible minority population. The visible minority population includes new immigrants and their children born in Canada. This latter group is still very young and its population growth will ultimately exceed the pace of current demographic changes. The geographical concentration of immigrants and visible minorities will continue to be one of the major characteristics of the immigration process in Canada. Toronto and Vancouver are already receiving the majority of newcomers to Canada and by 2017 half their population will have a visible minority identity. The same trend will characterize the school-age population. New immigrants are selected by immigration agents according to established criteria. The current emphasis on economic class immigrants has an impact on Canada s prosperity and on Canada s education system and will be discussed later in the report. 47

53 CHAPTER 3: THE ABORIGINAL POPULATION Aboriginal affairs have gained interest since the mid-1980 s due to a number of events, such as the adoption of the Indian Act of Canada, Bill C-31 (1985), the Oka crisis (summer 1990), the Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples ( ) and the creation of the Territory of Nunavut ( ). The Canadian Aboriginal population is growing fast: birth rates are high and since the 1986 census there has been an increased tendency toward self-reporting with regard to Aboriginal identity or origin. According to estimates by Statistics Canada, more than half of the increase of the Aboriginal population between 1996 and 2001 (from 799,010 to 976,305, an increase of 177,295) is explained by nondemographic factors, mainly ethnic re-identification (Siggner & Costa 2005). This pertains especially to the Metis population. For First Nations and Inuit populations growth is due, primarily, to natural increase. This chapter deals with the Aboriginal population in Canada and the impact of its future growth on the school-age population and the educational system in general. The chapter is divided into two sections. The first one describes the present composition and distribution of Aboriginal persons in Canada in terms of their identity and place of residence for the total population and the school-age population. The second section focuses on future trends. It shows and analyses the recent demographic projections of Aboriginal populations produced by Statistics Canada, again for total as well as schoolage populations. In this report an Aboriginal person is defined as someone who identifies himself or herself, in the census, as an Aboriginal, that is, as a North American Indian, Métis, Inuit, or one or more of these Aboriginal groups 14. This definition is consistent with one of the two used by Statistics Canada, the other one being people declaring an Aboriginal origin by ancestry (some of whom do not identify themselves as Aboriginals in the census). 14 In this definition those who reported only their status as a Registered Indian or member of an Indian Band are also counted. 48

54 1. The Aboriginal population in Canada There were fewer than one million Aboriginal persons in Canada 15 in 2001, and most of them (62.4%) identified themselves as North American Indians (single response). Another 30% declared a Métis identity and 4.6% an Inuit identity. The rest, 3.1%, provided a multiple identity or only reported themselves as a Registered Indian or member of an Indian Band. Aboriginals thereby constituted 3.3% of the Canadian population in 2001; and 2.8% five years earlier in Even though about half the increase of the Aboriginal population is attributable to nondemographic factors, a high level of fertility remains a specific feature of Aboriginals in Canada. The impact of these high fertility rates is accentuated by a sharp decrease of infant mortality and a corresponding increase of life expectancy. The following extract is taken from the The Well-Being of Canada s Young Children: Government of Canada Report The infant mortality rate, which refers to the rate of children who die within the first year of life (excluding still births), has been steadily decreasing among First Nations people since 1979, when it peaked at 27.6 deaths per 1,000 live births. In 2000, the infant mortality rate in the First Nations population was 6.2 per 1,000 live births. ( ) Despite the steady decline, the infant mortality rate for First Nations people remains higher than that found in the general population (5.4 per 1000 live births). The rate for First Nations infants is consistent with the rate found among the lowest income groups in urban Canada, where there is a 1.6 times greater risk of infant death compared to high income groups. Aboriginal fertility has been estimated to be 2.86 children per woman for Indians, 2.17 for Métis and 3.37 for the Inuit population during the period For Canada as a whole, the fertility rate was 1.67 in 1995 and 1.53 in 2001, far below the level of any of the three Aboriginal groups. The Aboriginal population is young compared to the non-aboriginal population. The three population pyramids showed in Chart 3.1 highlight the differences between the 15 After correction for incomplete enumeration and undercount (mostly in reserve settlements) the total Aboriginal population is estimated to be of 1,066,500 (Statistics Canada 2005a). 16 Internet version: 49

55 Territory of Nunavut (where the majority of the population is Inuit), the Indian population and the total Canadian population. The striking difference lies in the base of the pyramids: Nunavut and North American Indians have a wide base, indicating the high level of fertility of these populations, while the Canadian base is rectangular. One third (33.2%) of Aboriginals are below 15 years of age, compared to 19.8% for the non- Aboriginals. The median age of the Aboriginal population is 24.7 years (20.9 years for the Inuit) and 40 years for the Canadian population, a difference of 15 years. Another demographic feature of Aboriginal populations is their residential pattern. About one quarter live on reserves, another quarter in rural areas, one quarter in non-census Metropolitan Area (CMA) urban areas and a last quarter in CMAs (urban agglomerations of 100,000 or more inhabitants). 17 The contrast with the general Canadian population is significant: 61% of non-aboriginal Canadians live in CMA. The most urbanized aboriginal group are the Métis (near 70% in urban areas plus CMA) while the Inuit are the least (chart 3.2) with almost 75% living in rural areas. North American Indians are found between these two groups. The growth of the Aboriginal population in urban areas has been substantial in the two last decades, especially in metropolitan areas of Northern Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Much of this increase is due to ethnic re-identifications especially among the Métis population (Siggner & Costa 2005). Natural increase (births minus deaths) is the next significant factor in the growth of Aboriginals in urban centers, followed by rural-urban migration. 17 It is important to note that only North American Indians have reserves and that 95% of the reserve populations are North American Indians. 50

56 Chart 3.1: Distribution of the population (in percentage) by sex and age group, Territory of Nunavut, North American Indians, and Canada, Male Female Age group NUNAVUT % Male Female Age group NORTH AMERICAN INDIAN % Male Female Age group CANADA % Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 95F0300XCB and PUM Files 51

57 Chart 3.2: Distribution of the population (in percentage) of Aboriginal groups by type of residence, Canada, 2001 Other Aboriginals Inuit Métis North American Indian Reserve Rural Urban CMA Total Aboriginals 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB Note: Other Aboriginals includes Aboriginals with multiple identities and other groups. The North American Indian category includes those with and without legal status. The Aboriginal population is not evenly distributed across Canada. In terms of absolute numbers, they are concentrated in Ontario and Western Canada (chart 3.3). These five provinces, with between 13% and 20% of the total Aboriginal population each, account for more than 80% of the total Aboriginal population. The rest of the population is scattered among the Atlantic Provinces, Quebec and the North (note that less than 5% of Aboriginals live in the North). The picture differs somewhat from the perspective of their provincial/territorial share, that is, their demographic weight in each province and territory. In the three Territories, and in Nunavut in particular, the percentage of Aboriginals is much larger than anywhere else in Canada. In Nunavut the Inuit and other Aboriginals groups constitute the clear majority of the population (85%), in Northwest Territories they constitute half the population, and in Yukon they constitute less than 25%. Among provinces Manitoba and Saskatchewan have the largest proportions of Aboriginals, 13.6% and 13.5% respectively. While these percentages are much lower than those of the three northern territories, they are considerably higher than in any other province. In Alberta, 5% of the 52

58 population is Aboriginal and in Quebec Aboriginals constitute just over 1% of the population. Chart 3.3: Distribution of the Aboriginal population across provinces and provincial share of Aboriginal populations (both measures in percentage), Canada, 2001 Nunavut NWT Yukon BC Alberta Saskatch. Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Distribution across provinces Provincial share Percentage Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB The distribution of the four Aboriginal identity groups does not vary much across provinces and territories (chart 3.4, panel A). As for Canada as a whole, North American Indians comprise between 55% and 70% of the entire Aboriginal population. There are two exceptions: Nunavut, where more than 99% of Native People are Inuit and the Yukon, where the North American Indian population comprises more than 85% of all Aboriginals. The three Prairie Provinces have the highest proportion of Métis while the Inuit are found mostly in northern Canada, including Ungava Bay in Quebec and Labrador. The urbanization of Canada s Aboriginal peoples, especially the Metis population, in provinces and territories is similar to the country as a whole (chart 3.4, panel B). In the Atlantic Provinces, Quebec, Northwest Territories and Nunavut, the percentage of Aboriginal persons living in urban areas is lower than elsewhere in Canada (less than 53

59 35%); in Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia it is higher (61% in Ontario, the most urban province). The Northwest Territories have the highest proportion of Aboriginals living on reserves (a little more than 70%); Quebec is next in this regard followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba. There are no reserves in Nunavut. Chart 3.4: Distribution of Aboriginal population by Aboriginal group (panel A) and residence category (panel B), Canada, provinces and territories, 2001 Panel A. Aboriginal identity Nunavut NWT Yukon BC Alberta Saskatch. Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% North American Indian Métis Inuit Other or multiple identity Panel B. Residence category Nunavut NWT Yukon BC Alberta Saskatch. Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada Reserve Rural Urban CMA 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB

60 As a rule, Aboriginal persons account for a higher proportion of children in provinces and territories than of adults. The highest percentage is found in the very youngest ages: 0-14 years-old (chart 3.5). For the Atlantic Provinces, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia, the relative weight of Aboriginal children among the total population of children is almost twice that of Aboriginal persons in the total population. 18 This situation is explained by high fertility rates of Aboriginal women. In Ontario for example, Aboriginal persons constitute 1.7% of the total population of the province, but for the three youngest age groups, 0-4, 5-9 and 10-14, they constitute 2.5%, 2.6% and 2.3% respectively. The situation is similar in Manitoba and Saskatchewan where the proportion of Aboriginal people in the total population is much higher than in the other provinces (but not in the Territories). Manitoba has the highest proportion of Aboriginal persons among Canadian provinces with 13.6%. But the highest share of Aboriginals among the children s population is in Saskatchewan: 27.4%, 25.7% and 21.9% in the age groups 0-4, 5-9 and respectively. This means that in Saskatchewan Aboriginal children already constitute more than 20% of the school-age population, a proportion that is expected to grow in the future. The Northwest Territories and Nunavut clearly stand apart due to the high share of Aboriginal persons in their territories. In Nunavut, more than 90% of the school-age population is Inuit, although this is still small as an absolute number with 8,560 Inuit children. The share of Aboriginal school-age children in non-cmas (including on reserve and rural) and CMAs is unequal. For Canada as a whole, Aboriginals account for 5.2% of all school-aged children. In non-cmas they constitute 9.2% of the population and only 2.3% in CMAs. This high proportion of Aboriginal children in non-cmas is confirmed for all Canadian regions (chart 3.6) 19. In non-cmas in Eastern Canada (Atlantic, Quebec and Ontario) Aboriginals account for a much higher percentage of school-age children 18 Note the difference in scale between the two panels of chart 3.5. The scale of the second panel is ten times the scale of the first panel. 19 Data for the Territories are not shown because they do not have census metropolitan areas within their borders. 55

61 than in metropolitan areas. In Quebec the percentage of school aged Aboriginal children living in CMAs is the lowest in Canada (less than 1%). Chart 3.5: Share of Aboriginal People in each age group for Canada, provinces and territories, Note differences in scale based on the relative size of the Aboriginal population in various provinces. % Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Alberta BC Total % Manitoba Saskatch. Yukon NWT Nunavut Total Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB In the western provinces the relative difference between non-cmas and CMAs tends to be smaller than in eastern Canada. This is due to the recent increase of the Aboriginal population in urban areas (primarily the Metis population) driven in part by ethnic mobility (or ethnic re-identification). Aboriginals account for 30% of school-age children in the two prairie provinces. In metropolitan areas in Manitoba and Saskatchewan Aboriginals constitute 14% of the total school-age population. 56

62 Chart 3.6: School-age children (5-19 years-old). Share of Aboriginal in non- CMA and CMA residence, Canada and provinces, 2001 % Total Non-CMA CMA 5 0 Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatch. Alberta BC Note: Non-CMA includes Reserve and rural Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB The future demographic dynamics of Aboriginal populations Statistics Canada recently published a set of demographic projections for the Aboriginal population for the period 2001 to Sponsored by the Multiculturalism and Human Right Branch of Canadian Heritage Department in honour the 150 th anniversary of the Canadian Constitution, the project provides information regarding Canada s demographic profile for 2017, with a special emphasis on its multicultural aspects (Statistics Canada 2005b) 20. The projections are based on several adjustments concerning the Aboriginal population as enumerated in The most important one is the correction of the starting point population for incomplete enumeration and undercount (mostly in Indian reserves). The correction gave a new estimated Aboriginal population of 1,066,500 in 2001 instead of the original census figure of 976,305. This corresponds to a correction of 90,195 (9.2%). Another adjustment consisted of an expansion of the definition of reserve: 41 quasi- 20 The publication, also in 2005, of population projections of visible minority groups (see chapter 2) was sponsored by the Multiculturalism and Human Right Branch of Canadian Heritage Department in view of the same event. 57

63 reserves sub-divisions units were added to the existing 1098 reserves. Finally, the population in the group of other Aboriginal group or multiple identities was allocated to the three main groups of North Latin American Indians, Métis and Inuit. (The report uses projection scenario B which presupposes a slight decrease in Aboriginal fertility over time and does not take into account any kind of ethnic re-identification as do alternative scenarios). The projected evolution of the Aboriginal population between 2001 and 2017 will be positive (i.e. will increase) for both the total and school-age populations. Absolute projected population figures are displayed in chart 3.7 for the total and school-age population. But the relative increase will be much faster with regard to the total population than with regard to the school-age population. The reasons for this are the falling fertility rate and the increasing life expectancy at birth. Between 2001 and 2017, the total Aboriginal population will increase by 353,400 (or 33%) while the school-age population will increase by 34,900 (or 10%). In 2017 the Aboriginal population will reach 1,420,000 and the population aged 5-19 will be 374,200. As a result of these evolutions the percentage of the Aboriginal population aged 5-19 years will decline from 31.8% in 2001 to 26.4% in However, there are significant differences between groups and regions. Demographic growth will be particularly strong for the Inuit and for populations living on reserves (mostly North American Indian). The growth rate of the Inuit and the on-reserve population between 2001 and 2017 will be 9% and 11.7% respectively, compared to a rate for the total Aboriginal population of 7.1%. The on-reserve population will increase mostly at the expense of rural areas, which will experience the lowest increase. The school-age population will experience a similar trend but to a lesser extent: the total growth rate of the school-age population will be 2.4%. This sub-population will decrease for Métis as well as in rural and non-cma urban areas. The decline in rural areas (around 10,000) will be particularly important. The school-age population will increase for North American Indians, Inuit and those on reserve. In total, these evolutions will not impede a 58

64 decrease in the percentage of the school-age population among Aboriginals (chart 3.8) that will affect all groups regardless of identity or residence. Chart 3.7: Population growth of Aboriginal People, for Aboriginal group and residence category, total (panel A) and age-school population (panel B), Canada, Panel A. Total population Aboriginal identity Residence category Population (thousands) North American Indian Métis Inuit Population (thousands) Reserve Rural Urban CMA Panel B. Age-school population (5-19 years-old) Aboriginal identity Residence category Population (thousands) North American Indian Métis Inuit Population (thousands) Reserve Rural Urban CMA Source: Statistics Canada, 2005b The percentage the Aboriginals constitute in Canada as a whole and in the Canadian regions will increase in the near future (chart 3.9, panel A) 21. The increase is impressive in Manitoba and Saskatchewan: between 2001 and 2017, the share of Aboriginal population will augment by 3.3 and 6.6 points of percentage respectively, much more than elsewhere in Canada except in the northern territories 22. In 2017 the Aboriginals will constitute 20.7% of the total population of Saskatchewan and 17.6% in Manitoba. The 21 For the total population (Aboriginals and non-aboriginals) we used the scenario 3 of the demographic projections for the total population of Canada (Statistics Canada 2005c). 22 Results for the territories are not shown because of small numbers, which causes a difficulty when comparing the projection of the total population with the projection for the Aboriginals. 59

65 next province will be Alberta with 6.3% of its population by Quebec and the Atlantic Provinces will continue to have lower percentages of Aboriginals among their populations. Chart 3.8: Evolution of the percentage of the school-age population (5-19 years-old), by Aboriginal identity (panel A) and residence category (panel B), Canada, Panel A. Aboriginal identity % North American Indian Métis Inuit Panel B. Residence category % Reserve Rural Urban CMA Source: Statistics Canada, 2005b 60

66 Chart 3.9: Evolution of the share of Aboriginals in the total (panel A) and school age population (5-19 years-old) (panel B), Canada and provinces, Panel A. Total population BC Alberta Saskatchew an Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada % Panel B. School-age population (5-19 years-old) BC Alberta Saskatchew an Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada % Source: Statistics Canada, 2005b & 2005c The same pattern can be observed for the school-age population. In 2017, more than one third (⅓) of the Saskatchewan school-age population and 28% of the Manitoba schoolage population will have an Aboriginal identity. This is far more significant than projections for all of Canada with 6.6%. The main explanation for the increase in the proportion of Aboriginal children in the Canadian school system is not the increase in the absolute number of school-age children per se as it is the sharp decline in the school-age 61

67 population of non-aboriginal identity. This will affect all the provinces. Between 2001 and 2017, the total school-age population will decrease by almost 400,000 in Canada, by 170,000 in Quebec alone, by 50,000 in Saskatchewan and by 34,000 in British Columbia. Ontario, with just a small decrease of 4,000, is taking advantage in this respect of its dynamic situation of immigration. What is also clear is that the increase in the Aboriginal school-age population will not be sufficient to compensate for the decline of the schoolage population as a whole in Canada and should have a definite numerical impact only in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (chart 3.10). Due to the striking dynamics of immigration, Ontario should not experience much change in its total school-age population, and the effect of the Aboriginal population dynamics will remain limited as in most provinces. But Ontario, as well as British Columbia, Quebec and Alberta, will have to face another challenge with their growing diversity from the immigration and the increasing visible minority population born in Canada (see chapter 2). In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the weight of immigration is less important; the dynamics of their Aboriginal populations will have to be addressed in terms of educational policies. Chart 3.10: Absolute growth of non-aboriginals and Aboriginals school-age population (5-19 years-old) between 2001 and 2017, provinces BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Aboriginal Non-Aboriginal Population growth (thousand) Source: Statistics Canada, 2005b & 2005c 62

68 3. A few words on the economic situation of Aboriginals Canadian Aboriginal persons are also characterized by a lower standard of living than other Canadians. This situation is evident in the presence of more lone-parent families, higher unemployment and lower incomes. The situation has improved somewhat over the past 10 years, but Aboriginals have not caught up with the rest of the Canadian population: in 2001, still 31% of North American Indian families were lone-parent families whereas 15.6% were lone-parent families in Canada as a whole (Indian and Northern Affairs Canada 2005). Aboriginal persons are also at a disadvantage in terms of their employment and income situations. Unemployment is high among Aboriginals. In 2001, the unemployment rate was 19% for Aboriginal people in the labour market, but only 7% for the rest of working Canadians. For registered Indians, the median household income was $30,495 in 2000 compared with $46,752 for the total Canadian population (Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, 2005). The situation, however, has improved, at least in urban areas where the gap in median employment income between Aboriginal and non-aboriginal persons closed over the period, even though it has been shown that those who reported an Aboriginal identity through ethnic re-identification (mainly Metis) tend to have higher levels of schooling and are likely to have higher incomes as well (Siggner & Costa 2005: 21). In any case, even in 2000 nearly one fifth of income received by Aboriginal adults living in large cities came from government transfers, which is much larger than for non- Aboriginal people (11%). Consequently, there is still a high proportion of Aboriginal families and individuals in low-income and poverty situations (chart 3.11), especially among North American Indians. As mentioned previously the socio-economic situation of Canadian Aboriginals is improving in relation to the rest of Canadians. Nevertheless, it remains a significant policy concern as this situation is linked to lower levels of educational attainment among the Aboriginal population (see chart 5.2bis below). 63

69 Chart 3.11: Percentage unattached individuals and individuals living in an economic family aged years-old in low-income situation by sex and Aboriginal identity, 2000, Canada Male Female Unattached individuals Economic families Unattached individuals Economic families Non-Aboriginals Inuit Métis North American Indian Aboriginals mult. resp % Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat No. 97F0011XCB Conclusion General trends and features regarding Aboriginal populations in Canada are as follows: The Canadian Aboriginal population is growing faster than the general population mainly due to a higher fertility rate mainly for North American Indian and Inuit populations. Their weight in the Canadian population will continue to grow in the future in all territories and all age groups, including the school-age population. The growth of the Aboriginal population in urban areas, specifically the Metis population, has been substantial in the two last decades, especially in metropolitan areas of Northern Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. A considerable aspect of this increase is a result of ethnic re-identification at census. As a rule, within the Aboriginal population, children represent a higher percentage of the population than the adult population. The highest share is found in the very youngest ages (0-14 years-old). 64

70 Another specific feature is the residential pattern of North American Indians. Almost 50% live on-reserve, 10% live in rural areas off-reserve and about 45% live in urban areas. The contrast with the general Canadian population is significant: 61% of non-aboriginal Canadians live in an urban community. The future evolution of the Aboriginal population between 2001 and 2017 will show an increasing trend for both the total and school-age populations. Demographic growth will be particularly strong for the Inuit and for populations living on reserves (mostly Indian). The Aboriginal population in Canada also experiences a lower standard of living than other Canadians. This population is also at disadvantage in terms of employment and income. Unemployment is especially high among the Aboriginal population. In 2001, the unemployment rate was 19% for Aboriginal people in the labour market, but only 7% for the rest of working-age Canadians. As the foregoing analyses make very clear, the majority of Aboriginal people in Canadian society are significantly marginalized in both social and economic terms. This is the case, regardless of region and/or "on reserve/off reserve" status. The principal exception, as we have seen, applies to those Aboriginal persons who have completed post-secondary education. The policy objective for all Aboriginal youth is clear: take measures to reduce dropping out and grade repetition while encouraging and facilitating transition to post- secondary education for many more Aboriginal youth. The British Columbia Aboriginal Education Program is addressing this issue. For further details see chapter 6 below. 65

71 CHAPTER 4: THE RURAL POPULATION Although Canada is geographically a very large country, most of the population lives in a relatively narrow band adjacent to the Canada/U.S. border as noted in Chapter 1 of this report. The trend toward urbanization is generally increasing, giving rise to questions about the future of Canada s rural population. This chapter deals with issues related to Canadian rural demographics. We first look at basic figures of the rural population, its past evolution in Canada and its distribution across Canadian provinces as of the 2001 census. We also examine past trends of rural-urban migration regarding Canada and the provinces. 23 The final section deals with socio-economic development in rural areas. In this document, as in most publications of Statistics Canada, rural is defined in opposition to urban areas, namely census agglomerations (CA) and census metropolitan areas (CMA). The term rural usually refers to rural and small town (RST) rather than to rural areas only. Specifically, RST, refers to the population living outside the commuting zones of larger urban centres specifically, outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs). A CMA has an urban core of 100,000 or over and includes all neighbouring municipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes into the urban core. A CA has an urban core of 10,000 to 99,999 and includes all neighbouring municipalities where 50 percent or more of the workforce commutes into the urban core. Thus, RST Canada represents the non-cma and non-ca population. It includes all the residents outside the commuting zones of larger urban centres. Only a small share of these residents lives on farms (Mendelson & Bollman 1998: 4). Although rural areas differ within and among provinces and regions, this paper includes the following in the definition of rural area: small towns, villages and other populated places with less than 1,000 population; rural fringes of census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations that may contain estate lots, as well as agricultural, undeveloped and non-developable lands; agricultural lands; remote and wilderness areas. 23 The data we have access to do not include an analysis of the most recent trends ( ). 66

72 1. The Canadian rural population Conventional wisdom suggests that rural areas experience a constant process of depopulation. The truth, however, is not that simple and depends on the point of view. There are four elements one can take into account in judging the demographic dynamics of rural areas (Mendelson & Bollman 1998). First of all, when looking at each intercensal period between 1966 and 1996, the rural and small-town (RST) population actually grew within constant boundaries. For example, RST population increased from 6.1 million to 6.3 million between 1991 and 1996 within 1996 boundaries. The second element concerns the loss of population that rural and small town Canada has registered as a consequence of metropolitan reclassification (from rural to urban). Given that the definition of urban is based on both total population and percentage of commuting labour force, reclassification can be partly explained by urban sprawl rather than by out-migration from RST to urban areas. Urban sprawl means that there are significant in-migrations to RST from urban areas. After including reclassification into the count of what is rural and what is urban, there was an actual population loss of 70.8 thousands in rural areas between 1991 and 1996 (in non-constant boundaries). Movement of people is significant in the rural-urban dynamics of the country but it does not necessarily confirm the conventional wisdom that rural-urban migration is larger than the opposite stream of urban-rural migration. Difference in out-migration rates between rural and urban areas is actually not large (Audas & McDonald 2004). Globally, urban areas are growing faster than rural areas and the share of total population that RST represents has been declining over the last decades (chart 4.1). In 1971 more than one third of the Canadian population was living in rural and small town areas. This percentage declined below 25% in 1986 and was 20% at the last census in This change is due to both the growth of urban areas as well as reclassification of rural areas into urban zones. In constant boundary however, the share of rural and small town populations would not have changed between 1991 and 1996 (about 22%). 67

73 In addition, within RST areas the rural part (population under 1,000) is generally increasing at a lower rate that than the urban part (population of more than 1,000). But as before, the role of reclassification is important and explains most of the differences between the two parts. Another important factor that reinforces the latter is the very unequal geographic distribution of immigrants into the country. As seen in chapter 2, most immigrants choose large urban centers at landing in Canada; and many of those who go to rural areas decide to move to a more urban area shortly after their arrival. However, a recent study shows that more immigrants are choosing rural regions (especially in British Columbia, Alberta and Manitoba) than in the past (Beshiri 2004). Chart 4.1: Share of the population living in rural and small town areas, Canada, census years % Census year Sources: Canadian censuses (Mendelson & Bollman 1998; Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB ). Note: For 2001, population living on-reserve is excluded. The distribution of the rural population by age group for the rural, urban non-cma and CMA areas is shown in chart 4.2. The rural population is relatively young. The percentage of the years-old is a little higher in RST areas than in urban areas where the proportion of the young adult population (especially years-old) is larger. At the same time, the labour force population has an older profile in rural and small town areas (see the years-old). Young adults and retirees are proportionally more numerous in urban than in rural areas as they tend to move to cities. Young adults are typically 68

74 motivated by considerations related to education, training, and employment opportunities. Older persons are more focused on access to health care and other services. Interestingly the very young (0-9 year olds) have the same share in the three zones, about 12% of the total population (6% for 0-4 and 6% for 5-9 years-old). The year old group also has the same share in the three zones (around 17%). Chart 4.2: Distribution of the population by age group, rural, urban non-cma and CMA, Canada, 2001 % Rural Urban non-cma CMA Age group Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB Note: Population living on-reserve is excluded. There are notable differences by regions (chart 4.3, panel A). The most rural region of Canada is the Atlantic region where nearly 50% of the population lives in rural areas. Saskatchewan also has a fairly high proportion of its population, a little more than 30%, in rural areas. In contrast, in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec more than 80% of the population lives in census agglomerations (CA) or in metropolitan census agglomerations (CMA). In Ontario 70% of the population lives in CMA, (i.e. in urban agglomerations of 100,000 inhabitants or more). The distribution of the school-age population across residential areas does not differ strikingly from the total population (Panel B of chart 4.3). However, by comparing the distribution of the school-age population in the three areas in each province, we observe that the share of the school-age population is larger in rural areas than in CA or CMA 69

75 areas. For Canada as a whole 22.2% of the rural population is aged 5-19 year and 19% of the census metropolitan areas are 5-19 years of age. The same trend appears in all regions. Chart 4.3: Distribution of the population by rural, urban non-cma and CMA residence, total and school-age population (5-19 years-old), Canada and provinces, 2001 Panel A. Total population BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic Rural Urban non-cma CMA Canada 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Panel B. School-age population (5-19 years-old) BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec Rural Urban non-cma CMA Atlantic Canada 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB Note: Population living on-reserve is excluded. 70

76 Chart 4.4: Share of the school-age population (5-19 years-old) in the total population, rural, urban non-cma and CMA, Canada and provinces, 2001 BC Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec CMA Urban non-cma Rural Atlantic Canada % Sources: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0011XCB Note: Population living on-reserve is excluded. 2. Rural-urban migrations Migration is a major feature of rural demography. Even though the reclassification of areas from rural to urban designations is primarily responsible for rural depopulation, in recent decades, the movement of people between rural and urban areas has been an important determinant of the socio-economic characteristics of rural populations. As mentioned previously, a first consequence of rural migration is a change in the age structure of rural and urban areas. Migration rates from RST areas and migration rates to RST areas differ only slightly (chart 4.5). People going to rural areas are highly represented among the year olds, an age range coinciding with household formation and family-building. People leaving rural areas are found in large proportion among the years-old population: education as well as labour factors explain these movements (see Malatest and Assoc., 2002, for example) In total, net migration (difference between in- and out-migration) shows a deep net out-movement from rural areas in the youngest ages (15-24). It is particularly pronounced for the year-old age group, a typical transition period to adulthood when people tend to move into the 71

77 work force or post-secondary education, establish their own household, and / or settle into a committed relationship. Chart 4.5: Migration rate (per 1,000 thousands inhabitants) to and from rural and small town areas by age group, Canada, Migration rate (per 1,000) Age group in In-Migration Out-Migration Net Migration Sources: Canadian censuses (Rothwell et al 2002) But chart 4.5 also shows some positive migration to rural areas for those over 25 years. Some people who left for training are returning. For instance, using administrative tax data to analyze the incidence of return migration to rural areas Dupuy et.al (2000) have found that of all people aged who moved out of their rural community, at most 25% returned to the same community ten years later and, in general, about 39% of rural leavers return to any rural community within their province of origin within ten years (cited in McDonald & Gray 2006). This evidence reflects the fact that rural youth have closer ties to their communities ( ) and one that creates considerable tension when these young people are making decisions about their educational and occupational futures Looker 2001: 28). In the last three decades there has been a clear trend toward the improvement of migration exchange between rural and small town areas and urban agglomerations (chart 4.6). During the period, rural areas lost population in all age groups except among older adults (50-69 years-old). Already during the period and increasingly during the next one ( ), rural and small town areas were able to 72

78 maintain positive net migration rates in all adult ages between 25 and 69 years-old, with a maximum reached in the age interval. One of the reasons for this change is the lowering of out-migration rates from rural areas, that is, a better retention capacity experienced by RST areas during the 1990 s. Chart 4.6: Net migration rate (per 1,000 thousands inhabitants) in rural and small town areas by age group, Canada, , and Migration rates (per 1,000) Age group at the beginning of the period Sources: Canadian censuses (Rothwell et al 2002) One of the most interesting features of recent trends is the changing effect of education on rural migration rates. Rural areas are increasingly attracting individuals with higher educational attainment, not the opposite as the conventional wisdom would suggest. Instead of a brain drain from rural to urban areas, it might be more appropriate to refer to a brain gain (Rothwell et all 2002). Chart 4.7 illustrates this point by displaying rural net migration rates by level of education for two periods, and The improvement between the first and second period is obvious, especially for individuals with a university degree or with a non-university certificate. The situation in represents a significant change compared to the preceding period ( ) when net migration was negative for people with some university education while positive for individuals with education below university. In , individuals with a university degree had the highest net migration rates, almost 6 per 1,

79 Chart 4.7: Net migration rate (per 1,000 thousands inhabitants) in rural and small town areas by level of education, Canada, and Level of education at end of period Less than grade 9 Grade 9-13 High school certificate Trade certificate Some nonuniversity College Some university University degree Net migration rate (per 1,000) Sources: Canadian censuses (Rothwell et al 2002) The meaning of this finding is not straightforward. Does this really correspond to a brain gain in favor of rural and small town areas, or it is just an effect of an accelerating urbanization process of rural fringes that are not reclassified into urban areas (yet)? And what about the situation faced by the most agricultural and remote places in Canada? At this point the available data do not permit us to examine the issue in greater detail. 3. The Rural economic situation and development strategies Many aspects of rural development have consequences for rural youth. In general, employment opportunities (in number and diversity) are limited for young people living 74

80 in rural areas. As a result, rural youth have consistently higher unemployment than urban youth, and the percentage of young persons with full-time full-year jobs is lower than in urban areas. Another indication of the paucity of employment opportunities for the youth in RST areas is the low labour force participation, particularly for women. More rural youth are self-employed than are urban youth. In general, income tends to be lower in rural areas than in urban ones: in 2000, the average income per economic family was $70,483 in urban areas and only $61,000 in rural areas. But at the same time the cost of living is also lower. Taking into account family size and costs of living, the incidence of low income families (and unattached individuals) is higher in urban areas than in the RST areas of Canada (chart 4.8). The main policy issue of rural development concerns the failure to create better and more diversified jobs. One of the problems faced by RST areas is the small size of their communities and their vulnerability to rapid changes of modern economic structures in the global economy. Citing a Canadian OECD representative, Looker (2001: 21) provides a concise portrait of this unfavorable economic setting: rural regions have been severely buffered by technological changes, by world-wide economic restructuring, by volatility of domestic and international product cycles and by changing life-styles and demographic pressures. Other changes that are noted include labour displacement due to a shift away from primary industries without corresponding growth in other areas; lack of skills and information in rural communities to enable full participation in the new and developing economic spheres; lack of economies of scale that would allow rural communities to access public, consumer and business services; and declining in regulatory measures of rural subsidies. 75

81 Chart 4.8: Average family income and percentage of low income families for urban and rural areas, 2000, Canada $ and over Under 5000 Nonfarm Farm % Average family income ($) Incidence of low income (%) Urban by population size rural Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 census, Cat. No. 97F0020XCB As a result, there are many fewer jobs in high growth rate sectors such as the producer (business) services sector and consequently fewer jobs in the professional and managerial occupations (where incomes are higher). Rural employees are also more likely to be working in small firms where salaries are lower and work mobility is more restricted (Vera-Toscano et al 2001). Because of lower income, fewer jobs, less employment diversity and labour (ascendant) mobility, rural youth are often forced to choose between leaving their home community or remaining with lower occupational aspirations and expectations. One of the policy issues regarding rural development for youth is to what extent a rural community with better educated individuals can provide a boost to rural development in terms of employment. As in the United States it was found that in Canada a higher education level in a community provided only a weak employment boost during the 1980s and, as a consequence, local economic development strategies should recognize they need to focus on more than human capital development to stimulate local economic 76

82 development (Bollmann 1999: 27). One possible avenue would be to increase access to a wide range of employment options for youth in their communities. The key for employment opportunities for rural youth seems to be less an investment in developing their skills and human capital than in attracting viable, sustainable (rather than rapid growth) jobs to rural areas (Looker 2001: 26). Some promising policy options for sustainable economic development for youth would consist of stimulating the knowledgebased economy and information society and to create programs and infrastructures that would expand the access of rural youth and local communities to services and information available to urban areas. Some are more ambitious and speak about the necessity to build a New Rural Economy by retooling the whole rural economy through digital technology in all its forms (Apedaile 2003: 1). This means, among other things, a shift in rural organizations from the old production-based organizations that use land, labour and capital assets towards organizations that use knowledge-based assets. 4. Conclusion The issue of the growing population versus depopulation in rural areas and small towns in Canada cannot be adequately addressed with the available data published by Statistics Canada. The most recent trend points to some increase in the rural population due to better retention and higher attraction of educated individuals into rural and small town areas (RST). What cannot be assessed here is to what extent this is only an artifact effect of the urbanization process of rural fringes of existing urban agglomerations. This evidence, coupled with the fact that rural areas are attractive to young families (the share of school-age population in higher in rural areas than in urban centers), indicates that some families might be moving just outside urban centers in order to be able to enjoy the proximity of services, including education and health as well as employment, that the main urban center offers. There are probably large differences within the rural and small town areas (peripheral or remote, intermediate and adjacent to urban centers) and between Canadian regions but they are difficult to assess as well in this respect. 77

83 Some key features regarding changes in Canada s rural population follow: Rural areas are not growing as fast as urban areas and the share of the total population that rural and small town areas represent has been declining over recent decades. The rural population remains relatively young and the percentage of yearolds is a little higher in rural and small town areas than in urban areas where the proportion of the young adult population (especially years-old) is larger. Migration is a major feature of rural demography and the movement of people between rural and urban areas has been an important determinant of the socioeconomic characteristics of rural populations. People leaving rural areas to go to cities are found in large proportion among the year-olds while people going to rural areas are highly recruited among the years of age, an age range coinciding with household formation and family-building. This trend indicates that some people trained away are returning to their homes in rural and small town areas. In the last three decades there has been a clear trend in an improvement of the migration exchange between rural and small town areas and urban agglomerations. One of the most interesting features of recent trends is the changing effect of education on rural migration rates. Rural areas are increasingly attracting individuals with higher educational attainment. 78

84 CHAPTER 5: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES As noted in the introduction, Canada s public education is facing, and will increasingly face, significant demographic challenges that will affect the way the system operates and will require new thinking and new strategies to achieve desired educational outcomes. This chapter provides some evidence of school performance, educational attainment and labour market transition of young immigrants and visible minorities, young Aboriginals, and rural children and youth based on the literature and census data. School performance of young immigrant and visible minority youth has been the subject of a number of works in the past few years thanks to the availability of surveys such as the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY), Youth in Transition Survey (YITS), the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), and it is now possible to draw a fairly good picture of most groups. We complete this review of survey findings by using census data to estimate educational attainment for various groups between the ages of 15 and 24. We use census PUMF data to examine labour transitions and circumstances of youth aged years. There exist different measures of educational outcomes. For example, the International Adult Literacy and Skills Survey (IALSS) 2003 is helpful in measuring literacy in life skills of the adult population from a comparative perspective. IALSS was a sevencountry initiative conducted in In every country nationally representative samples of adults aged were interviewed and tested at home, using the same psychometric test to measure prose and document literacy as well as numeracy and problem-solving skills. The main purpose of the survey was to find out how well adults used printed information to function in society. Another Canadian source of data for a general overview of education based on learning indicators is the Composite Learning Index (CLI) developed by the Canadian Council on Learning (CCL). It is used to analyze trends over time and across regions in Canada. The 2006 results have been released, with new results to be released annually each spring. The index measures overall learning conditions, as well as conditions related to 79

85 four areas of learning: Learning to Know: Learning to Do: Learning to Live Together: Learning to Be. Although these measures of literacy and learning are useful per se and in particular for evaluating the state of literacy and learning of the adult population, in this report we focus on measures specific to the school-age population and youth. In the first part of this chapter we survey the material regarding school performance of visible minorities (mostly second generation immigrants) and immigrant children in Canada. The second part addresses the schooling question of Aboriginal young people. The third section focuses on the reading performance of rural children. These sections rely, essentially, on the available literature. In the fourth section we use the Public Use Microdata File of 1996 and 2001 census data to take the analysis further. This section will deal only with Aboriginals, visible minorities and immigrants. PUM files do not provide a variable for identifying rural areas (they distinguish only CMA from non-cma areas). The section deals with sub-groups for the visible minorities (four categories) and immigrants (period of landing and region of birth) as well as with Aboriginals as a distinct group. The basic issue is how these groups compare with non-aboriginal, non-visible minority Canadians (our reference group) in terms of educational attainment between the ages of 15 and 24 and how they are integrated in the labour market between the ages of 25 and 29. These indicators will be interpreted as proxies for school performance and educational aspiration of these groups and their labour market transition success. The fifth and last section concludes with some policy implications regarding these issues. 1. School performance of visible minorities and immigrant children Using three cycles of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) from Statistics Canada, Worswick (2001, 2004) examines the school performance of children of immigrants in the Canadian school system and compares it with the school performance of Canadian-born youth (aged 4-14). He does not address directly the school performance of visible minority youth but, given that they constitute the majority of 80

86 young immigrants his conclusions can be extended to them. His findings are somewhat surprising given the economic disadvantages (in terms of earnings and total income) faced by immigrants and especially visible minority families in Canada. Using descriptive as well as statistical multivariate analyses of different dimensions of school performance (reading, writing, mathematics, over all performance) measured by parental assessment, teacher assessment and test scores, Worswick shows that children of immigrants perform as well as Canadian-born children in the school system. He also distinguishes between immigrants whose first language is French or English from those whose first language is neither. He found that the children of immigrants who have English or French as their first language perform better than Canadian-born children in most dimensions, whereas the other children of immigrants perform in a comparable manner. The author sums up his results: Overall, children of immigrants generally do on average at least as well as the children of the Canadian-born along each dimension of school performance. The children of immigrant parents whose first language is either English or French have especially high outcomes. The children of other immigrant parents have lower performance in reading than do other children; however, their performance in other areas is comparable to that of the children of Canadian-born parents. Evidence is also found that, with more years in the Canadian education system, the performance of these children in reading converges to that of the children of Canadian-born parents. In general, the results indicate that the children of immigrants have predicted performance in virtually all areas that is at least as good as the performance of the children of the Canadian-born by age 13. (Worswick, 2001, p. 13). More recent results provided by Worswick (2004) are shown in chart 5.1. What explains such strong performance? Worswick points to the Canadian immigration system that is able to select immigrants in such a way that their children will adapt well to the school system. This is done in practice by selecting immigrants with higher educational levels, such as economic immigrants. 81

87 Chart 5.1: Means of children's test scores by the parents immigrant status and mothertongue, children aged 4-14 years-old, , Canada 105 Score Children of Canadian-born parent Children of francophone or anglophone immigrant parent Vocabulary Reading Mathematics Test Children of allophone immigrant parent Note: Test scores have a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15 Source: NLSCY, 1994, 1996, 1998 (Worswick, 2004) An alternate explanation is proposed by Krahn & Taylor (2005). They argue that the strong performance of children of immigrants arises from the high aspirations of immigrant families for their children as a way of overcoming the disadvantages they face in their integration into Canadian society. Studying visible minority children in Canada using the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) the authors found that higher parental education and aspirations (for their children) largely explain the visible-minority immigrant effect on postsecondary aspirations (p. 428). Another recent work using PISA 2000 addressed the specific issue of reading skills of young Canadian immigrants (Gluszynski & Dhawan-Biswal ). The authors also found that immigrant children perform well in reading with a level higher than the OECD average (Canada as a whole is also above OECD average). They found that even though recent immigrant children perform less well than Canadian-born children, they are able to catch up in reading skill with Canadian-born children after five years in the country. In general, immigrant children are less likely to drop out of high school than are Canadianborn children. 24 Their results were presented at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the Canadian Economics Association (Montreal). The presentation has not been published as of the writing of this paper. 82

88 The overall picture appears to be very positive for the integration of school-age immigrants in Canada, for the first and second generation (captured through the situation of Canadian-born visible minorities). These studies highlight the role played by immigrants / visible minority parents on the school success of their children. Nevertheless, the belief that all immigrants do very well in school can be misleading. The notable success of some groups (Chinese and Korean) may tend to mask the underperformance of other groups of non-english or French speaking immigrants. Lee Gunderson of UBC (2004) found amazing differences in achievement between Mandarin speakers and other groups, such as Spanish and Vietnamese speakers. 25 These differences in achievement tend to mirror differences in socioeconomic status highlighting the high risk nature of some groups of immigrant students and the need to collect and analyze a wide range of data related specifically to them. Future research is also needed on the transition from the school system to the labour market to see whether children of immigrants and visible minorities continue to succeed at a level comparable to the children of the Canadian-born as suggested by Worswick (p. 14) or whether their career goals and opportunities are impeded as these youth become more exposed to systematic racism (Krahn & Taylor 2005: 430) or by any other factors. We will present some evidence of economic success of young immigrants and visible minorities in section School performance of Aboriginal children There are many problems with Aboriginal schooling in Canada. According to Battiste (2005) First Nations Indians have few incentives to remain in school, receive little careerrelated skills training, have high drop out rates from high school, and have weak English skills. Inuit are facing the same problems while Métis have to struggle with school infrastructure deficiencies. But problems common to all Aboriginals seem to be the high drop-out rates (or non-completion rate) from high school and the lack or inadequacy of 25 This was discussed in a Toronto Star article by Andrew Duffy, September 25,

89 resources (teachers, infrastructure, or space). As an example of the first problem, findings from YITS show that grade repetition for 15 year-olds is 20% for Aboriginals while it is less than 10% for non-aboriginals (chart 5.2). For year olds, the percentage of Aboriginal youth who ever dropped out of school is over 30%, but only 15% for non- Aboriginal youth. For both indicators, Aboriginal students perform much worse than the rest of the student population at the same age (two times worse) even after controlling for socio-economic status (Barnabé 2006). Chart 5.2: Grade repetition and drop-out rate from high school, non-aboriginal and Aboriginal populations, Canada 40 % Non-Aboriginal (reference) 35 Aboriginals 30 Aboriginals (standardized) Grade repetiton (15-year-olds) Ever drop-out (18-20 year-olds) Source: YITS 2000 (based on Barnabé 2006). Note: Standardization for socio-economic status (SES). Comparable results are found at the provincial level. One useful example is provided by British Columbia (Morin 2004). The performance of Aboriginal children in B.C. is considerably lower than non-aboriginal children in most assessments. For example, completion rates for students in Grade 8 (within six years of completion) from were about 75% for non-aboriginals students and 37% for Aboriginals. The percentage of students who wrote and passed the English 12 provincial exam was 65% and 31% in for non-aboriginal and Aboriginal students respectively. For the mathematics 12 provincial exam, the difference between the two groups is even more pronounced: 84

90 27% for non-aboriginals but only 5% for Aboriginals. Aboriginal children are also more likely (at least twice as likely) to be in special education than are other children. The reasons for this are numerous and complicated and include a multitude of factors including: historical exclusion; eroded families, bonds and skills; colonization and assimilation; poverty and unemployment; lack of transference and parenting skills; erosion of native languages; geographical isolation; as well as southern Canadian curricula and the attitudes of non-aboriginal population (Battiste 2005). Another potential factor is the low level of education and literacy of these children s parents. In urban areas in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, for example, about 60% of Aboriginal adults and less than 45% of non-aboriginal adults have a low level of literacy (Barnabé 2006). In general, Canadian Aboriginals have a significantly lower level of education than that of non-aboriginals and immigrants, a situation which should be of great concern for future public policy. Nevertheless, other results presented by Barnabé suggest that when Aboriginal people (living off-reserve) complete postsecondary education, they are able to compete with non-aboriginals in the labour market (Chart 5.2bis). This finding shows the importance of completing postsecondary education for a successful transition to the labour market. 85

91 Chart 5.2bis: Off-reserve employment rates, postsecondary completers, non-students aged 25-64, April 2004 to March 2005, Western Canada Source: Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, Aboriginal peoples living off-reserve in Western Canada (based on Barnabé 2006). 3. School performance in rural areas Rural students and rural schools present obvious differences when compared with their urban counterparts. Many observers have emphasized the negative aspects of rural educational settings. In her very useful review of the literature of human capital of youth in rural areas, Looker (2001) identified constraints on children learning in a rural environment related to educational plans, educational attainment, and to the functioning of rural schools. As we have seen in chapter four the economic base of rural areas is very different from that of the urban centers: the labour market is less diversified, unemployment is higher, incomes are lower (but the cost of living is also lower). One concern regarding rural children is that many of them and their parents do not see formal education as relevant for their future position in the labour market. These children are not necessarily unable to complete their formal education; rather they seem to be unwilling to do so. Because of the rural/urban income gap, many students are under pressure to obtain part-time 86