Preventing Spillover Violence in Civil Conflict

Transcription

1 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 1 BACKGROUND PAPER Disarmament and International Security Committee (DISEC) Preventing Spillover Violence in Civil Conflict Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means. -Ronald Reagan

2 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 2 What is Spillover Violence? Spillover violence occurs when a conflict increases in scope to include more participants and/or more area. It often arises due to close proximity to and shared interests with combattant groups. Those affected by regional conflicts almost never exist solely in the area where the conflict itself takes place, thus many are invested in a certain set of outcomes. Spillover violence can occur due to efforts of combattants to bring in more players or due to external groups offering their aid. Actions taken by combattant groups to increase the scope of violence can include requesting aid from foreign governments, attempting to partner with groups outside of the direct region of conflict who have similar goals, and trying to reach individuals directly, such as through the dissemination of ideological information. These groups, however, do not need to necessarily agree to become involved: violent actions taken against an uninvolved party can also force it to enter the conflict. Outside groups may also get involved of their own accord because a certain outcome would further their own interests and influence relations with other invested parties. Syrian Civil War Case Study The Syrian Civil War, starting in March 2011, originated as a war between the President Bashar al Assad s forces and the several rebel factions. Currently, it has expanded into a proxy war between Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, and the United States, Turkey, etc. Throughout the entire region of the Middle East, the Syrian War spillover effect is widespread, with its effects often dubbed the Arab 1 Winter. Spillover in Lebanon 2 On August 13, 2013, 42 civilians were killed as a result of two bomb blasts in Lebanon as one of the first of many spillover effects of the Syrian Civil War. Since, two factions have emerged: the Sunni Lebanese supporting their rebel counterparts in Syria (backed by the Saudi government) called the March th Alliance, and the competing Iran-backed March 8th Alliance, consisting of majority Shias in support of Assad. Presence of rebel groups, and subsequently ISIL and Al Nusra diminished after August 27, 2017, when ISIL reached a ceasefire with the Lebanese army on one front and Hezbollah/Syrian army on 1 e-arab-winter.html 2 ebanons-tripoli-idusbre97m0fl

3 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 3 5 another. Thus, the Lebanese government regained control of all its territories after six tumultuous years. Spillover in Turkey With the rise of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish government moved away from liberal Islamic secularism and towards an authoritarian, conservative structure, isolating western allies including the United States and 6 fellow NATO member states while warming up to Russia and China. While Ankara viewed ISIS as the lesser of two evils, that changed when ISIS began its conquest of north Syria, taking over the border with Turkey. This caused large numbers of refugees to flee north Syria through the Turkish border, causing chaos and breaking peace between the Turkish government and the 7 Kurds. Ankara frowned on ISIS in the spring of 2015, eventually authorizing military action against the terrorist group and later building a border wall between 8 Turkey and Syria. Considering Turkey s geopolitical importance as a transcontinental nation connecting Europe to Asia, the spillover of conflict into Turkey s borders has worried many European countries, and put Turkey s relations with the European 9 Union in jeopardy. Spillover in Iraq Already reaming with instability from Al Qaeda presence and US invasion, Iraq has now been opened to new possibilities of conflict due to the Syrian War. To combat an alliance with Iraqi and Syrian insurgents, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-maliki enacted a blockage of all male refugees entering the state from its western border. Moreover, due to the increased Turkish presence in airfare combat against Syria, many of Iraq s Kurdish regions have been destabilized in an attempt to seek out those hiding in the mountainous areas, thus decreasing not only Iraq s national sovereignty but also airspace control. In addition, fearing a rising Sunni insurgency, the predominantly Shia Iraqi government has aligned 10 with Iran and subsequently Assad dead-across-turkey-as-fate-of-kobani-stirs-up-tensions_ html iduskbn1ho22g 10 ar.html

4 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 4 Nicaragua Case Study Thousands of Nicaraguans have taken to the streets to protest the presidency of Daniel Ortega, leading to a massive political movement across the nation. Though these demonstrations were intended to be peaceful, they have been met with a deadly crackdown by security forces. In an attempt to suppress these uprisings, Ortega s government has supplemented its police forces with 11 armed partisans, vigilantes, and death squads. These groups have built numerous barricades around cities, suburbs and highways. By outsourcing protest-repression duties, conditions for more violence - including criminal violence - have been created. Evidence suggests that drug cartels and organized crime groups are in full operation, taking advantage of the ongoing turmoil to expand and deepen their networks. So far, more than 350 people have been killed and more than 2,100 have been wounded. As the violence ceases to end, 12 these numbers continue to grow. Beyond the the trauma and suffering of victims, crime and violence also carry high levels of economic cost at a national scale. Crime and violence not only drag down economic growth, but also scare away investors and stop government resources to strengthen law enforcement. The army is absent in this issue, and many civilians are unsure whether armed attackers are police in disguise, or an actual threat. The civilians, not just the protesters, are in danger as violence is increasing. On a worldwide scale, in response to these events, little change has been made, although groups are discussing possibilities and scenarios. The Organization of American States (OAS) met in Washington in July to discuss the events in Nicaragua. The OAS condemned the violence and appealed to the Nicaraguan government to demonstrate commitment and engage constructively 13 in peaceful negotiation. The Human Rights Watch urged the Organization of American States to press President Daniel Ortega to dismantle pro-government armed gangs and cease abuses. Bosnia and Herzegovina Civil War Case Study Originating from ethno-religious hostilities, the Bosnia and Herzegovina Civil War, occuring from , exemplifies how religion, ethnic, and political 11 olence.html 12 n-refugee-crisis ragua

5 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 5 forces intertwine amidst conflict. Disguised as your cookie-cutter civil war for independence, the internationalized civil war was so complex it qualified as a hybrid war, which employs political warfare and blends conventional warfare, irregular warfare and cyber warfare with other influencing methods (i.e. fake news). However, several political analysts and historians referred to the war as one for independence or as a civil war. Understandably, this mischaracterization is horridly incomplete and contributes to a vast array of misconceptions about the conflict, as these traditional types of war do not account for all relevant circumstances that accumulated until war finally breaks out. When categorizing an armed conflict, one must consider and analyze the war s components, assess the strategy and purpose of war, and analyze the applied means and methods of warfare. Often times, too much importance is attached to inter-ethnic strife as the primary cause of the war, and it is ignored how Serb-Montenegrin aggression contributed to the rise of inter-ethnic conflict. In addition, one forgets that before the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), inter-ethnic tensions were drastically lower and a 14 national issue was not at the forefront. In conclusion, the ethnic and other political issues that were not resolved at the end of World War II in conjunction with those suppressed by the communist regime had resurfaced with a vengeance. The international community was highly ineffective regarding the crises and the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina - had they fostered an understanding of the BiH war, and developed a collective stratagem, thousands of lives could have been saved while fostering a more economically efficient transition to statehood following the dissolution of the Yugoslav Republic. Only through the diplomatic effort of the United States, was a renewed alliance between the Croats and 15 Muslims established. This alliance proved to be an apt decision, as the Ethnic Serbs unwillingly bequeathed their dominance in Bosnia and Herzegovina which 16 ultimately led to the Dayton Agreement, marking the cessation of war whilst simultaneously sending a global message - in order to create a more cohesive global unit, countries have to be willing to not only work together for their benefit but assist the others falling behind nt-of-the-war s-historical-context-a

6 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 6 Past UN Action Reducing spillover violence has long been a focus of the United Nations. Their actions have often come in the form of preventative measures. In 2010, it seemed as if the situation in Cote d Ivoire had the potential to disrupt West Africa, both economically and politically. Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president of Côte d Ivoire, lost an election to challenger Alassane Ouattara. However, his government invalidated some of the votes and declared Gbagbo the winner, despite t he international community s recognition of Ouattara as the winner. Fearing a second civil war within the last ten years, many people began 17 to flee the country. After being pushed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Gbagbo and other top government officials, and emphasized the work of the United Nations Operation in Cote d Ivoire (UNOCI). Outside of the placement of sanctions and the dependence upon the UNOCI, no other actions 18 were taken to address the issue. Unfortunately, this plan was insufficient, and the country faced a civil war in The damage and instability it caused can still be seen today. Another similar instance was the Darfur Conflict. Beginning in 2003, two rebel groups from west Sudan attacked the Sudanese government. Although a peace agreement was eventually signed between the Sudanese government and the rebel groups, violence continued throughout the Darfur region, eventually spreading to Chad and the Central African Republic. As the situation escalated, the United Nations Security Council approved the deployment of peacekeepers. 7,000 African Union troops and 1,000 French troops were sent to protect civilians 19 and prevent the conflict from escalating. These troops unfortunately had little effect, as they were understaffed, under-resourced, and under-trained. In 2005, the Chadian Civil War sparked as a continuation of the Darfur conflict, causing 20 many humanitarian agencies to leave the region. Formally, the conflict has subsided (thanks to peace talks), but like Côte D'Ivoire, the region is still 21 considered unstable. Regrettably, these incomplete solutions from the UN seem to be the story far too much. When addressing spillover violence, the United Nations has either failed to do enough to effectively prevent or fix devastating crises, or they haven t taken a large enough role in resolving the situation. While efforts to respond to ited-nations-minurcat.html 21

7 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 7 the symptoms of spillover violence, such as refugee crises, have been highly publicized and very successful, the United Nations is still searching for the best 22 way to contain these situations from the beginning. Upcoming Cases of Interest Spillover violence is always a risk in areas of conflict. Currently, the International Crisis Group has flagged several situations that may prove to be 23 potential sources of spillover violence. The Rohingya Crisis, involving Myanmar and Bangladesh is one of these upcoming cases of interest. The Rohingya Muslims are the largest Muslim minority group in the Rakhine province of 24 Myanmar. However, due to persecution by the state, thousands of refugees are fleeing to Bangladesh. On August 25, 2017, Rohingya ARSA militants attacked several police posts. The backlash from the police and local mobs resulted in the burning of villages as well as the death of civilians. There is a strong potential danger of the conflict turning toward cross-border attacks, which will most definitely spark violence in other parts of the country of Myanmar, and possible Bangladesh as well. The escalating situation in Yemen is also another such source of potential 25 spillovers. The Yemen War, sparked by the failure of a political transition, is being intervened in by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and other states. However, the Saudi interference may result in the Houthi rebels bringing the fight to Saudi Arabia s borders, threatening it and other nearby states. The war in Afghanistan against the Taliban is also crucial. The United States new strategy is in order to force the Taliban to make concessions. However, the almost-completely militarized plan will most definitely result in violent consequences for the Afghan civilians in the area. The situation in Syria is extremely tense as well. Israel, to the southwest, may view Iranian troops as a threat and take military action. This potential conflict could spread rapidly into Lebanon. Crucially, in the northwest, the Assad regime may decide to take action against the rebel-held held regions there. This would most certainly result in displacement and civilian deaths. Finally, the situation in Congo is acute. President Joseph Kabila s determination to hold onto power there has resulted in increasing instability across the state. Regional tensions are rising, and protests have resulted in 22 dresolution_internationalalert2004.pdf (page 2)

8 DISEC PREVENTING SPILLOVER VIOLENCE IN CIVIL CONFLICT PAGE 8 deaths already. Popular discontent and the dictatorial regime is slowing causing a spiral toward chaos. All these situations, if sparked into conflict, will definitely lead to spillover violence, both domestic as well as international. Committee Goals & Possible Solutions This committee must now decide how the United Nations can move forwards to bring an end to the violence that has the ability to uproot so many civilian lives and cast instability across entire regions. There are many ways to address these issues. Obviously, each region of the world has its own differences that mean every conflict will have to be addressed differently. However, there are some general ideas (in addition to your country s own policy) that are important to consider. The first is the use of UN 26 peacekeepers. As described above, deployment of peacekeepers has been a solution the UN has relied on. However, peacekeeper usage comes with its share of controversies and issues. Another idea to consider is the movement of small arms and light 27 weapons (SALWs). The acquisition of SALWs by groups engaged in civil conflict can lead to further damages. It is the hope of this committee that we can learn from our past mistakes and forge solutions that will have a positive impact and bring peace and stability to regions across the globe. Questions to Consider 1.) How has you state been affected by this issue? Note issues with politics, borders, economy, and people. 2.) In regards to this topic, is your state in a position to aid or in need of aid? 3.) How can the UN handle these issues to maximize the effectiveness of its peacekeeping force in areas with civil conflict? 4.) How does the illicit SALW trade impact these conflicts and how can the UN minimize these dangers? 5.) How can national sovereignty be maintained?