WORLDMARK ENCYCLOPEDIA. National Economies. Volume 3 Asia & the Pacific. Sara Pendergast and Tom Pendergast, Editors

Transcription

1 WORLDMARK ENCYCLOPEDIA of National Economies Volume 3 Asia & the Pacific Sara Pendergast and Tom Pendergast, Editors

2 TAJIKISTAN CAPITAL: Dushanbe. MONETARY UNIT: Somoni (SM). Introduced in 2000 to replace the Tajik ruble. SM1 equals 1,000 Tajik rubles. Somoni are issued as notes of SM1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100. Also 1, 4, 20, and 50 diram notes (100 dirams in SM1). CHIEF EXPORTS: Aluminum, electricity, cotton, gold, fruits, and textiles. CHIEF IMPORTS: Electricity, petroleum products, natural gas, aluminum oxide, machinery and equipment, and foodstuffs. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: US$7.3 billion (purchasing power parity, 2000 est.). BALANCE OF TRADE: Exports: US$761 million (2000 est.). Imports: US$782 million (2000 est.). COUNTRY OVERVIEW LOCATION AND SIZE. is a landlocked country situated in Central Asia. Slightly smaller than the state of Wisconsin, s territory is measured at 143,100 square kilometers (55,251 square miles). It shares borders with Uzbekistan (1,161 kilometers) to the west, China (414 kilometers) to the east, Afghanistan (1,206 kilometers) to the south, and Kyrgyzstan (870 kilometers) to the north. The capital, Dushanbe, is in the west, near the Uzbekistan border. POPULATION. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency s estimated July 2001 population for was almost 6.6 million. The country s population density of 143 people per square kilometer is low except that 93 percent of the country is mountainous, resulting in a more real population density of 488 people per square kilometer; this figure is one of the highest in the world. s growth rate is about 2.12 percent. It also has a high infant mortality rate, estimated at deaths per every 1,000 live births. Compared to many other countries, life expectancy at birth in is low, estimated at 64 years. Unlike many other countries, s rural population is rising due to a higher fertility rate in the countryside and reduced opportunities for employment in urban centers. Tajiks comprise approximately 65 percent, Uzbeks about 25 percent, and Russians due to economic and political reasons less than 3.5 percent of the population. The autonomous (self-governing) Badakhshan province is primarily inhabited by Pamiri Tajiks whose various dialects can be considered separate languages from other Tajik dialects spoken in. Furthermore, whereas Tajiks and Uzbeks are mostly Sunni Muslims, the far majority of the people of Badakhshan are Shia Muslims. Other ethnic groups, such as Turkmen, Kyrgyz, and Tatars live in. While Tajik is the official language of the country, Russian and Uzbek are widely used, especially in business circles. OVERVIEW OF ECONOMY Republic of Jumhurii Tojikiston Civil conflict from 1992 to 1997 weakened s economy. It is estimated to have shrunk by 60 percent since 1991, when the Soviet Union broke up and its 14 former republics, including, declared their independence. Despite some economic gains in the past several years, still has one of the lowest gross domestic products (GDP) per capita among the former Soviet republics and Soviet bloc countries of eastern Europe. The country s primary source of foreign currency is the export of aluminum. As in many other former socialist countries, has been implementing a privatization program. Since privatization began in 1991, the state has sold nearly 5,500 of its smaller properties. In 1999, nearly 300 auctions were held, resulting in more than 1,400 sales and generating the equivalent of US$14.4 million for the state treasury. One of the relatively larger privatized industries was most of the 26 factories for converting raw Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies 567

3 TAJIKISTAN Miles UZBEKISTAN Pendzhikent Denau Termez Amu Dar'ya Zeravshan Syrdar'ya ZERAVSHANSKIY KHREBET Kafirnigan Vakhsh Ayni Ura Tyube Tursunzade Yavan Nizhniy Pyandzh Kuybyshevskiy Dushanbe Nurek Dangara Qurghonteppa Pyandzh Kansay Khudzhand Novabad Surkhob Kalai Khumb Kulob (Kulyab) Panj Kanibadam Isfara Dzhirgatal' Qal'eh-ye Bar Panj K Y R G Y Z S T A N Vanch A L A Y S K I Y K H R E B E T Rushan Khorugh ( A L A Y M T S. ) Roshtkala Pik Kommunizma. 24,590 ft m. Vrang Kilometers Vir Ozero Karakul' Gunt Murgab P A M I Pamir Uzbel Shankou R S Murgab C H I N A Rangkul' Oksu Shaymak N A F G H A N I S T A N W S E PAKISTAN cotton to cotton fiber. The government hopes that continued privatization in the agricultural and industrial sectors will lead to higher economic output. POLITICS, GOVERNMENT, AND TAXATION Soon after declaring its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country was engulfed in a bloody civil war ( ) fought along ideological and regional lines. That violent conflict took approximately 35,000 lives and led to massive amounts of internally displaced persons and refugees fleeing to other countries. The former communists, who had controlled the government, fought against a coalition of opposition parties dominated by the Islamic Renaissance Party and mostly composed of people with Gharm/Qarateguine regional origin. In June 1997, the opponents signed a peace accord, pledged to cease all hostilities, and promised to form a government of national unity. The constitution, adopted in 1994 and amended in 2000, replaced the Soviet-era version. It established executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. The president of is considered the head of state, elected every 7 years for a maximum of 2 terms. The president appoints cabinet members, the prime minister, and the justices within the court systems, all subject to approval by the legislature. The ruling party in 2001 was the People s Democratic Party of, associated with President Imomali Rahmonov. He has been in power since 1994 but his final term will expire in The prime minister acts as the head of government and directs the cabinet. In February 2000, elections were held to create a bicameral parliament. 568 Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies

4 The government generates most of its revenue from taxes. During 1996 and 1997, it maintained large budget deficits. There was a significant reduction of the deficit in 1999 to 3.2 percent of GDP and 3.8 percent in The government broadened the tax base and boosted revenue through the introduction of a new tax code in January The new code cut the number of tax categories from 45 to 17 and reduced the top rate of income tax. The government s budget deficit fell to a low of 2.2 percent of GDP in This was based mainly on the increased efficiency in tax collection and the revenue generated from privatization. The change was thought to increase tax revenue by as much as 1 percent of GDP. INFRASTRUCTURE, POWER, AND COMMUNICATIONS s infrastructure is relatively well developed. For example, a network of 13,000 kilometers (8,100 miles) of roads, mostly paved though not in the best of conditions covers large parts of the country. Despite the extensive road system, however, there is only 1 road linking Dushanbe with Khudzhand, the second biggest city in the country, which is located in the northern Leninabad region. Because climatic conditions often make this land route unusable, plans are underway to build the 13-kilometer (8.1-mile) Anzob Tunnel. The total cost for the project will likely surpass US$300 million. The railway system is only 480 kilometers (298 miles) long and connects a few main towns to the Uzbekistan railway network. A major project nearing completion by end of 2001 is the construction of a railway from Qurghonteppa to Kulob, the 2 largest towns in the south. The country has 59 airports, 14 having paved concourses, though not all are operational due to lack of maintenance. The largest airports are in Dushanbe, Khudzhand, and Kulob. International destinations are limited and travelling on Airlines s dilapidated fleet is considered dangerous. Travel to from other parts of the world is time consuming, expensive, and cumbersome. Access to information and communication tools are limited, with only an estimated 38 people out of every 1,000 having private access to a telephone. Moreover, the existing telecommunications system is prone to breakdowns and is in dire need of upgrading. was the last country among the former East European countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) that was connected to the Internet. At least 2 Internet service providers and several cellular telephone companies of limited range operate in the country. The 4 most important types of household fuel in are firewood, electricity, cow dung, and natural gas. Households and industry rely heavily on imported petroleum, natural gas, and to a lesser extent electricity, primarily from Uzbekistan. has an estimated 5.6 billion cubic meters of recoverable natural gas reserves, but due to financial barriers, it has been unable to increase its production. The government is attempting to encourage foreign companies to invest in joint ventures in the extraction of natural gas. The country s own oil production is about 3,000 barrels per day, while the consumption need of the country is more than 29,000 barrels per day. could be one of the world s leading per capita producers of energy if it were to expand its system of dams and hydroelectric plants. As it stands, due to the east-west configuration of its electricity grids, the country imports and exports electric energy without satisfying or affording its electricity needs. Large parts of the country, especially small towns and villages, face frequent and long periods of blackouts. ECONOMIC SECTORS In 2000, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, registered a real GDP of US$1.1 billion. To find an estimate of its per capita income, GDP is divided by the estimated population of 6.6 million, arriving at a per capita GDP of a mere US$167 per year Communications Cable Personal Country Newspapers Radios TV Sets a subscribers a Mobile Phones a Fax Machines a Computers a Internet Hosts b Internet Users b N/A N/A United States 215 2, , ,100 Russia ,700 Kyrgyzstan N/A 0 N/A N/A a Data are from International Telecommunication Union, World Telecommunication Development Report 1999 and are per 1,000 people. b Data are from the Internet Software Consortium ( and are per 10,000 people. SOURCE: World Bank. World Development Indicators Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies 569

5 GDP COMPOSITION BY SECTOR 1997 Services 42% Agriculture 34% one of the lowest among East European and former Soviet republics. The economy of is heavily reliant on the export of 2 commodities aluminum and cotton and is highly susceptible to trade fluctuations. Trials of independence, a destructive civil war, and deteriorating terms of trade have combined to significantly reduce the capacity of the country to produce cotton and aluminum at levels comparable to pre-independence times. Furthermore, in 1998, due to stagnating world prices of both resources, a wide trade deficit of US$145 million and an equally large negative current account balance of US$107 million were incurred. Donor inflows, primarily from the United States and the European Union, and loans from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), have helped moderate the current account deficit. However, foreign direct investment (FDI) in has been low, averaging only US$22 million per year between 1994 and SOURCE: CIA World Factbook 2000 [Online]. LABOR FORCE BY OCCUPATION Services 30% Industry 20% TOTAL LABOR FORCE 1.9 MILLION Industry 24% Agriculture 50% SOURCE: CIA World Factbook 2001 [Online]. Data for Percent distribution for 1997 est. AGRICULTURE is primarily an agricultural country, with as much as 70 percent of its population living in rural areas and 65 percent of the workforce being employed in the agricultural sector, especially the cultivation and production of cotton. The Soviet Union had designated much of Central Asia s agriculture, including Tajkistan s, as a cotton monoculture (production of one type of crop). Before independence, production of raw cotton averaged more than 800,000 metric tons per year. In 1999, by contrast, raw cotton production was only 316,000 metric tons. Cotton still accounts for two-thirds of total agricultural output, however. Export of cotton fiber in 1999 accounted for a relatively low figure of US$92 million or 13 percent of GDP. The main reasons for a decline of cotton production are the substantial reduction in state subsidies to farms, the consequent inability of farms to purchase sufficient inputs such as fertilizers and other agronomic goods, and the deterioration of the irrigation system and agricultural machinery. The primary food crops are wheat, barley, maize, potatoes, and rice. There are more than 800,000 hectares (2 million acres) of arable land in, which is equivalent to merely 6 percent of the country s land mass. The far majority of the arable land is located in the flood plains of the Kofarnihon, Vakhsh, Yakhsu, and Ghizilsu Rivers, all of which flow toward the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers. In addition to the cropland, there are an estimated 3.5 million hectares (13,500 square miles) of permanent pastures. With its fast-growing population, has a comparatively and increasingly low per capita cropland. Wise use of agricultural lands, therefore, is an extremely important issue for. Since 1995, with the encouragement of semi-private farming and the distribution of more than 50,000 hectares (125,000 acres) of land to mostly rural households, there has been a significant increase in the production of grain, however, inclement weather since 1999 has severely affected overall agricultural production, including grain and cotton. The effects of floods have been exacerbated by the lack of proper land and water management by local governments, as in not maintaining riverbeds and allowing for the overgrazing of hills and valleys. The combined natural and human effects, have, among other things, led to a lowering of grain harvests, which had been an abundant 550,000 metric tons in This total fell by 57 percent to a low of 236,000 metric tons in Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies

6 INDUSTRY ALUMINUM. Following years of sharp decline, the end of the civil war in 1997 permitted relatively strong industrial sector growth, including real increases of 8 percent in 1998 and 5 percent in The mainstay of the industrial sector of is the production of aluminum, which requires alumina and large amounts of electrical energy. Even though does not have its own source of alumina, due to its potential for excess electrical energy, the Soviet Union built the Tursonzoda smelter, one of the world s largest aluminum smelters, near Dushanbe. The factory can produce as much as 500,000 metric tons of aluminum annually. Due to similar economic problems as the agricultural sector, however, since independence, aluminum production has declined. More than 90 percent of the aluminum produced is exported. Whereas the production of aluminum in 1990 was at a peak of 450,000 metric tons, by 1997, it had reached a low of 189,000 metric tons. Recently, however, the government has attempted to provide for the necessary inputs to increase aluminum production. Consequently, aluminum production in 2000 was estimated at about 300,000 metric tons. MINING. has significant, largely unexplored, mineral deposits, such as gold, silver, antimony, and coal. Physical access to the sites in remote areas with limited infrastructure has been difficult and costly. A joint venture between British-owned Nelson Gold Company and the Tajik government, Zeravshan Gold Company, has been a success. In 1999, gold production in totalled 2.7 metric tons. In addition to gold, contains one of the world s largest silver deposits, Adrasmanskoye, which the country hopes to develop with the aid of foreign investors. Nine of the former Soviet Union s 34 antimony deposits are in. In 1997, 800 metric tons of lead was produced. ENERGY. is a net importer of energy. In 1999, it consumed about 29,000 barrels of oil per day. The country has some petroleum deposits, and as much as 3,500 barrels of crude oil are extracted daily. There is no oil refinery, however, so all oil is imported nearly 70 percent from Uzbekistan. has small natural gas reserves of about 200 billion cubic feet, and only minor domestic production. About 3 billion cubic feet of natural gas per year is produced domestically. In 1998, 37 billion cubic feet of gas was consumed, the majority imported from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Gas pipelines run from Uzbekistan to Dushanbe, and from Uzbekistan to northern. Tajik authorities supply gas to Uzbekistan in exchange for Uzbekistan s free use of a rail transport corridor, a gas pipeline across northern (for reexport to Kyrgyzstan), and other incentives. Due to the country s terrain and plentiful water, the major domestic energy resource is hydroelectric power: in 1998, produced 13.1 billion kilowatt hours (kwh). The southern and the northern power grids are linked to Uzbekistan. Over the past decade, depending on rainfall and domestic needs, has been both a net exporter and net importer of electricity. Due to a regional drought, begun in 2000, the country has experienced serious electricity shortages. It has imported more electricity and imposed increased power cuts on residential customers. Electricity prices were raised in April 2000 to limit demand. The Tursonzoda aluminum plant consumes 40 percent of the country s generated electric power. A new hydroelectric power dam, Sangtuda, is under construction with Russian and Iranian financing. It is expected to eliminate s need for power imports in the north and leave sufficient surpluses for export. A link between the northern and southern power grids is also planned. A study on improvements to the Tajik power grid, funded by the Kuwaiti government has been underway since SERVICES Services is the largest sector of the economy in. It constituted more than 60 percent of the country s GDP in 1998 and employs a significant part of the labor force. Much of the service economy is in the form of retail trade through micro- and small-enterprises scattered throughout mostly urban markets or bazaars. According to estimates from the state statistical agency of, the northern province of Leninabad sees more than onethird of retail trade, Dushanbe another third, and the southern province of Khatlon one-fifth. Despite the size of Badakhshan province nearly half the territory of its heavily mountainous geography limits its population to around 3 percent and its share of retail trade to even less. The primary products sold by small- and micro-businesses are domestically-produced agricultural goods and imported consumer items. Most of the consumer items sold by businesses are imported from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. Increasingly, however, Tajik entrepreneurs especially larger businesses travel to Iran and Dubai to secure consumer items for import and sale. According to a 1998 survey of small- and microbusinesses throughout the country, the top 3 constraints facing them are racketeers demanding illegal fees, political instability, and taxation (the tax police). FINANCIAL SERVICES. There were 17 registered banks in Four major commercial banks Agroinvestbank, Orion Bank, Vnesheconombank, and Savings Bank account for nearly three-quarters of all deposits and loans in the country. The banking sector, however, is marred by mismanagement and a history of extending bad loans. There are also few programs specializing in small loans to the agricultural and small business sectors, which are a crucial part of the economy. One study esti- Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies 571

7 mated that owners of micro- and small businesses pay as much as 130 percent interest rates on loans. INTERNATIONAL TRADE International trade plays a significant role in the country s economy. Total trade in 2000 reached an estimated US$1.5 billion, equally split between imports and exports. In 2000, the country registered a small trade surplus of US$17 million. Main export items were aluminum (constituting roughly 40 percent of export earnings), electricity (19 percent), and cotton fiber (18 percent). From 1929 to 1991, was able to trade freely with the other Soviet republics. During that time, exported its minerals, cotton, and aluminum (starting in 1974) to the rest of the Soviet Union in return for consumer goods, grain, fuel, and technology. During the Soviet period, however, consistently registered a trade deficit and regularly received union budgetary transfers from the central government. Such budgetary assistance during the Soviet era constituted as much as 23 percent of s GDP. Independence in 1991 broke much of the trade and government ties with the former USSR. Since then, most exports have gone to countries outside of the CIS. Exports to the CIS countries have been primarily electricity to Uzbekistan and vegetables and raw tobacco to Russia. The major destinations of exports with their corresponding percentage of the total value of exports are: Uzbekistan 37 percent, Liechtenstein 26 percent, Russia 16 percent, and Kazakhstan 6 percent (1997 data). The origin of most imports, however, is still the CIS. For example, the vast majority of imported electricity, natural gas, and oil are from Uzbekistan and Russia. Most grain imports are still from Kazakhstan, though as much as 100,000 tons/year of wheat and other foodstuffs are imported from western Europe and the United States as food aid. also has imported large amounts of alumina, the raw component needed for the production of aluminum, from Ukraine. The major sources of imports with their corresponding percentage of total value of imports are: Netherlands 32 percent, Uzbekistan 29 percent, Switzerland 20 percent, and Russia 9 percent (1997 data). Government tariffs stand at around 8 percent. Based on international standards, this is considered a liberal trade regime. MONEY s choice of currency has normally been according to the will of Moscow. Even after independence in 1991, for example, it began to use the new Russian ruble. In May 1995, however, it finally created its own legal tender, the Tajik ruble (TR). At that time, the National Bank of set the exchange rate as TR100 to US$1. Between 1995 to 1999, consumer price inflation increased by a rate of 1,680 percent, or an average annual compound rate of 420 percent. In 1999, however, the inflation rate was 28 percent. The depreciation of the Tajik ruble throughout the years is attributable to internal and external factors that diminished confidence in the local currency. Civil unrest and political instability, continued lack of economic opportunities for the average citizen, and the government s loose monetary and fiscal policies were among internal factors. External factors include Russia s 1998 economic woes, rise of petroleum prices, fluctuations of world cotton and aluminum prices, and a region-wide drought. By January 2001, the exchange rate reached TR2,200 to US$1. Meanwhile, the government embarked on a new currency called the somoni in October 2000 to take into account several years of high inflation. Hence, cash transactions no longer require large wads of currency. The name change ruble to somoni was also a tactical move by the government to use the currency as a symbol for Tajik nationalism. As of April 2001, the somoni was to have been the sole legal tender of the republic. At its introduction SM1 was equivalent to TR1,000. The exchange rate of the somoni is expected to reach SM2.5 to US$1 by the end of Trade (expressed in millions of US$): Exports Imports N/A N/A SOURCE: United Nations. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics (September 2000). Exchange rates: i somoni per US$ Jan Jan Jan Jan 1998 N/A Jan Jan Note: The new unit of exchange was introduced on October 30, 2000, with one somoni equal to 1,000 of the old i rubles. SOURCE: CIA World Factbook 2001 [ONLINE]. 572 Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies

8 GDP per Capita (US$) Country N/A N/A N/A United States 19,364 21,529 23,200 25,363 29,683 Russia 2,555 3,654 3,463 3,668 2,138 Kyrgyzstan N/A N/A N/A 1, SOURCE: United Nations. Human Development Report 2000; Trends in human development and per capita income. POVERTY AND WEALTH is the poorest country among the East European and CIS nations. It had the lowest per capita income among the same groups during the Soviet era. In earlier years, though, the economy was much more robust, with industry and agriculture being doubly productive than today. Furthermore, the central government of the Soviet Union used to provide with a significant amount of its national budgetary requirements. Despite its relatively low ranking during the communist era, was not poor. The population was healthy, wages were paid, and public services were fully functional. In 2001, on the other hand, due to independence and civil war related issues, is poor. There are limited employment opportunities, wages are low particularly in the agricultural sector and a variety of financial and material input necessary for proper agricultural and industrial activities is sorely lacking. Poverty in is also evident in the decreasing access to basic public services such as education, health care, and clean water. Income generated from employment remains the most important source of revenue for households. Other sources of income, however, such as revenue from micro- and small businesses and the sale of food and household goods, cover equally large shares of overall household incomes. The well-to-do and poor segments of the population and between some urban folk and the mostly rural population exhibit clear economic divergence. Expenditures at the richest households are 4 times those of the poorest. The poorest households spend 79 percent of their budget on food. They cover most of this need through subsistence farming, some remittances from abroad, and humanitarian aid. More female-headed households are considered poor than male-headed, partially due to the facts that Tajik women tend to be less educated, have fewer opportunities for business, and work in the public health and education spheres, where pay levels are significantly lower. Due to the continuing economic crisis, at best, the government can only provide minimal real provisions for social welfare to the needy. This is difficult for a population that still remembers the Soviet-era s generally good provision of health, education, and welfare services. A 1998 survey of households and small businesses throughout the country found that when asked what type of economy they hope to resemble in the future, 53 percent chose the USSR. WORKING CONDITIONS The fall of the Soviet Union, the civil war of that resulted in several billions of dollars of damages, and the continued economic slump have led to a drop in the standard of living for the majority. Publicsector wages are among the lowest in the world. According to the World Bank, about two-thirds of the population of subsists on less than US$2 a day. Though the official unemployment rate was 3 percent at the end of 2000, it did not include more than 220,000 government employees not receiving their salaries. These figures would yield an unemployment rate higher than 16 percent. The average wages per month among the CIS countries is highest in Kazakhstan at US$101 and lowest in at US$8.8. The highest average monthly salaries in belong to people working in the sectors of finance and banking, where they earn about US$40; the lowest belong to those in education (US$6), health care (US$4), and agriculture (US$3). Household Consumption in PPP Terms Country All food Clothing and footwear Fuel and power a Health care b Education b Transport & Communications Other United States Russia Kyrgyzstan Data represent percentage of consumption in PPP terms. a Excludes energy used for transport. b Includes government and private expenditures. SOURCE: World Bank. World Development Indicators Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies 573

9 Some sector-specific labor organizations exist, but they cannot be considered unions. They are remnants of the communist past, when labor rights were ingrained in the system. Due to the widespread economic slump and high unemployment rate, few workers dare to organize against their employers, who can replace protesting workers with any of the thousands of unemployed. Many people are not engaged in their learned professions, due to paltry government salaries. Some use a self-owned micro-business to supplement their government salaries. The informal economy consists of thousands of microbusinesses in the various bazaars around the country, where one can find doctors, accountants and engineers selling anything from potatoes to baby clothing. COUNTRY HISTORY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 875. Samanid dynasty, with its Persian speaking court, begins a 175-year reign over territory that includes much of today s Uzbekistan and A treaty signed by Russia and Britain determines the southern borders and what becomes Eastern Turkestan, a Russian protectorate, which covers the territory of today s Central Asian republics and some parts of eastern China. The 1895 treaty considers Amudarya as the border between Russian and British influence The Bolshevik army occupies Bukhara, forcing the emir to flee to Afghanistan becomes an autonomous republic within the Soviet Socialist Republic of Uzbekistan The first Tajik language newspaper in Soviet begins publication Territory is annexed from Uzbekistan by orders of Stalin, and included as part of. is then declared an independent Soviet Socialist republic Aggressive collectivization of agriculture is imposed on by Soviet planners, with an eye on expansion of cotton monoculture (the cultivation of a single crop) The Great Terror of Stalin purges much of the local communist elite, replacing them in favor of ethnic Russians and Europeans declares independence from the Soviet Union. A coalition government is formed involving elements of the Islamic opposition as well as former communists. By June, civil war breaks out between supporters of the former communist incumbent president, Rahmon Nabiyev, and the Islamic and secular opposition groups. Shortly after, parliament appoints Imomali Rahmonov as head of state after Nabiyev s resignation in September. Civil war between government supporters and the Islamic and democratic forces begins UTO, the Islamic opposition, which is based in Afghansitan and partly in Iran, forms an effective guerrilla force that carries out cross-border raids and eventually captures much of east-central Rahmonov defeats a candidate from northern in a controversial election with 58 percent of the vote Parliamentary elections are held; no opposition parties are allowed to take part A peace accord brokered by the UN, Iran, and Russia is signed in Moscow between the government and the UTO. Refugees begin to return from Afghanistan Voters re-elect Rahmonov as president. The UN s Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and Human Rights Watch accuse the government of vote rigging, manipulation of the media, intimidation of opponents and illegal disqualification of several political parties The pro-government People s Democratic Party takes the majority of seats in elections to the new bicameral parliament Despite relative calm in the country, assassinations occur sporadically and the drug trade is on the rise. FUTURE TRENDS is still in a nation-building stage. Because its territory is cut off from the centers of Tajik civilization the cities of Bukhara and Samarqand, which are part of Uzbekistan any central government in faces political and social maneuvering and challenges to unite an ethnically mixed and geographically dispersed population. In addition, recent government propaganda on the Tajik nature of the country, despite ethnic Tajiks comprising only 65 percent of the population, may not easily be accepted by an ethnically diverse population. Therefore, in addition to economic woes, which continue to cause barriers to the well-being of the country, the lack of democracy and security also wreak havoc. The presidential and parliamentary elections of 1999 and 2000, for example, were thought to be mired with improper intervention and influence by the ruling elite. Furthermore, although some level of banditry may have diminished due to the government s incorporation of many former opposition forces, other problems of insecurity are on the rise. Two of the most critical are the increase in the drug trafficking from Afghanistan and armed guerillas of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) using as a base to invade neighboring Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. 574 Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies

10 The future well-being of depends on a variety of factors, among which are whether the armed conflicts of Afghanistan and the sporadic guerrilla warfare of the IMU will eventually come to peaceful resolutions. Other factors are the will of the government to extend more democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression. The allowance of an independent media and encouragement of a strong civil society will be steps in the right direction. Provision of loans and logistics for small farmers and small businesses could truly alleviate the economic pains of the people. A plan to protect the natural environment in the form of establishing large parts of the country as national parks and creating accommodations for tourists via the creation of small locally-owned hotels throughout the country could encourage the establishment of a potentially lucrative ecotourism industry. This could simultaneously generate income for the local population, provide foreign capital for the central government, and preserve the natural environment. Finally, moves toward economic and cultural integration with other Central Asian republics and easing of travel throughout the region will be highly beneficial for the future of and the region as a whole. DEPENDENCIES has no territories or colonies. BIBLIOGRAPHY Economist Intelligence Unit. Country Profile: Kyrgyz Republic and : London: EIU, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development., 2000 Country Investment Profile. Geneva: EBRD, Foroughi, Payam Socio-Economic Survey of Households, Farms and Bazaars in. USAID and SCF, International Monetary Fund. Republic of : Recent Economic Developments, Washington, DC: IMF, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. World Factbook < Accessed August United Nations Development Programme. Human Development Report New York: UNDP, United Nations Statistical Yearbook United Nations. < Accessed February World Bank. : A World Bank Country Study. Washington, DC: World Bank, World Outlook International Monetary Fund. < dsbb.imf.org/category.htm>. Accessed February Payam Foroughi and Raissa Muhutdinova-Foroughi Worldmark Encyclopedia of National Economies 575