2013/14 FOURTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP. ROME, FAO HEADQUARTERS 1 2 October 2013

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1 Market tsituation ti and Outlook: Rice 13/14 FOURTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP ROME, FAO HEADQUARTERS 1 2 October 13 Global Rice Situation and Outlook 2 1

2 Relatively modest expansion in world rice production in 13 Global Rice Paddy Production and Area Production: Leading Producers 1/ Million tonnes Million ha Change: 13 estim. estim. f cast over % estim. f'cast Production Area World China (Mainland) India Indonesia Bangladesh Viet Nam Thailand Myanmar Philippines Brazil Japan United States Cambodia Countries ranked according to their position in average production. International rice market deepens Global Rice Trade and Shares of Production % Trade in rice forecast tt fll 4 9. by 1.8 percent to 37.8 M.t in 13 and to grow by.2% to 37.9MT in 14 (very preliminary) f cast. f'cast Exports Share of Production Ricetradeaccounting accounting for 7.6% of world output. The share was less than 5% until the early 199s 2

3 Thailand no longer the leading rice exporter Rice Exports by Major Exporters Major Exporters Shares in Global Trade % 25 Viet Nam Thailand India 8 6 Others 4 United States 2 5 Pakistan India Pakistan Thailand USA Viet Nam Others Several traditional importers to cut purchases in 13 Rice Imports by Region Major Importers 1/ estim. f cast f cast million tonnes, milled eq estim. f'cast Far East Near East Asia Africa Latin America & C. Europe Others World Nigeria Indonesia China (Mainland) Iran Isl. Rep Iraq Saudi Arabia EU Côte d Ivoire Philippines South Africa Countries ranked according to their average import position in

4 China (mainland) becoming a major rice importer China (mainland) turns into a large rice net importer since Exports Imports Net imports because of large differences between domestic and world prices 1, Jan 7 May 7 Sep 7 Jan 8 May 8 Sep 8 Feb 9 Jun 9 Oct 9 Feb Jun Oct Feb 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Jun 12 Oct 12 Feb 13 Jun 13 Price differential Hunan Indica Viet Nam 25%, fob Rice stocks to reach unprecedented highs Rice Production, Utilization and Stocks Five Major exporters stocks to rise sharply % estim f'cast estim f'cast Stocks (left axis) Production (right axis) Utilization (right axis) Closing Stocks Stocks to disappearance Ratio 4

5 After much resistance, international rice price fell markedly in August and September 13 FAO Rice Price Indices 2 4=4 2 4=4 FAO All Rice Price Index in nominal and real terms Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Aromatic Japonica Indica: High Quality Indica: Low Quality Nominal Real 13 Jan Sep The rice market remains highly segmented Price differential between Asian and American rice widening Price differential between Thailand and Vietnam narrowing Jul 6 Jan 7 Jul 7 Jan 8 Jul 8 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan Jul Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 US price premium United States 2/4 L.G. (fob) Viet 5% Jul 6 Jan 7 Jul 7 Jan 8 Jul 8 Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan Jul Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Thai price premium Thai 5% B Viet 5% 5

6 Main Challenges and risks in the short run Fundamentals: Risk of possible production setbacks in the next six months, affecting 13 secondary crops in the NH and 14 first crops in SH Exogenous factors: Income growth, energy prices, exchange rates, freights, prices of other cereals Policies: 1. Thai pledging programme and size of releases from government stocks 2. India s National Nti lfood dsecurity Bill and impacts on the country s export availabilities 3. Effectiveness of Nigeria s import tariff and restrictions 4. Pace of China s imports Paddy support/purchasing prices Taiwan Prov. Venezuela Colombia Thailand China Ecuador Dominican Rep Ghana Laos Sri Lanka VietNam India Bangladesh Little is known about the quantity procured, stored and released by the Chinese government Chinese support prices almost as high as in Thailand

7 Latest Rice Outlook in Summary: From AMIS Market Monitor, October 13 AMIS website at outlook.org/amis monitoring/monthly report/ 13 That s it. Thank you. 14 7