The Mastery of Passions

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1 The Mastery of Passions Socioeconomic Status and the Fertility Transition in Stockholm, Joseph Molitoris & Martin Dribe Centre for Economic Demography Lund University Funded by:

2 Motivation Urbanization and modernization play implicit or explicit roles in theories of fertility decline Few studies of urban populations during fertility decline Social groups have role in most theories as vehicles of change Diffusion: behaviors, innovations, preferences pass within and between groups Adjustment: SES group determines response to new structural conditions

3 Data: Roteman s Archive Period: Extraction: All females age 15 to 49 ever living in Stockholm and all individuals connected to them 3.7 M observations of 970,940 individuals (59.6% women) HISCLASS used to create SES groups from HISCO classification (Van Leeuwen, Maas & Miles, 2002)

4 Data: Variable Management Socioeconomic Status Husband s/head of Household s applied to wives/cohab Single women retained own SES Missing dates were filled in providing maximum exposure (i.e. Jan 1 or Dec 31 if month and day were missing) Overestimates of exposure time Created 8 time invariant districts by consolidating districts

6 Stockholm s Demographic Context City expanded at mean annual rate of 2.2% from 1870 to 1930 High adult male mortality : Stockholm e 25 =32.6; All of Sweden e 25 = 40.6 IMR was as high as 200 deaths per 1000 births in 1880 Swedish IMR 1880 =120 per 1000 Unique marriage arrangements

7 Stockholm s Population Growth Population Total Population and Population Growth in Stockholm by Year % Change Population rate of change -2 Source: Folkmängden i Stockholm Stockholms Stad.

8 Methods Descriptive: TMFR20 & TFR Multivariate Analysis Piecewise constant hazard rate models» Baseline hazard functions were assumed to have been constant for 6 month spells» Parity 2+ model used shared frailty of mothers» DVs: Age at first birth/time since last birth

9 Methods Multivariate Analysis (cont.) Logistic Regression» DV: Pr(interval>5 years) Sensitivity: Pr(interval>8 years); do not count failstopping as true stopping» Std. Errors: clustered by mother

10 Descriptive Results Births per woman Total Fertility Rate by SES and Period Higher occupations Lower managers Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Unskilled TOTAL

11 Descriptive Results 9 TMFR20 by SES and Period Births per married woman age 20 to Higher occupations Lower managers Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Unskilled TOTAL

12 Piecewise Constant Hazard Models & Logistic Regression Model First Births Parity 2+ P(Interval> 5 years) HR HR OR SES: Higher Occupations Lower managers. professionals Skilled Workers *** 0.87*** Lower Skilled Workers 1.16*** 1.16*** 0.79*** Unskilled Workers 1.47*** 1.31*** 0.68*** Missing 1.41*** 2.14*** 0.43*** Period: *** 1.37*** *** 2.08*** *** 0.31*** 3.53*** District: Gamla Stan Norrmalm 0.76*** 0.93*** 1.01 Kungsholmen 1.61*** 1.21*** 0.83*** Östermalm *** 0.86*** Södermalm East 1.76*** 1.29*** 0.79*** Södermalm West 1.62*** 1.24*** 0.82*** Brännkyrka 3.78*** 1.62*** 0.74*** Mother's Birthplace: Stockholm City Stockholm county 1.28*** 1.03** 0.92*** Other Sweden 1.20*** 1.07*** 0.92*** Outside Sweden *** 0.98 Previous Child Dead 1.17*** 0.77*** chi Women at Risk Births/Intervals

13 Multivariate Results Hazard Ratio Net Effects Between SES Groups on Age at First Birth Higher Occupations Lower managers, professionals Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Workers Unskilled Workers

14 Multivariate Results 1.8 Net Effects Within SES Group on Age at First Birth Hazard Ratio Higher Occupations Lower managers, professionals Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Workers Unskilled Workers

15 Multivariate Results 1.6 Net Effects Between SES Groups on Time Since Last Birth Hazard Ratio Higher Occupations Skilled Workers Unskilled Workers Lower managers, professionals Lower Skilled Workers

16 Multivariate Results 1.4 Net Effects Within SES Groups on Time Since Last Birth Hazard Ratio Higher Occupations Lower managers, professionals Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Workers Unskilled Workers

17 Multivariate Results 1.6 Net Effects Between SES Groups on Pr( Interval>5) Odds Ratio Higher Occupation Lower Managers Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Unskilled

18 Multivariate Results 8 Net Effects Within SES Groups on Pr(Interval>5) Odds Ratio Higher Occupation Lower Managers Skilled Workers Lower Skilled Unskilled

19 Discussion Some evidence that elites were regulating fertility earlier Start of period: Highest age at first birth, longest time between births, highest odds of a long interval (stopping) Behavior may have spread throughout population Differences between groups became smaller over time Most dramatic change among middle class (skilled workers) End of period: highest age at first birth, longest birth intervals, and highest risk of long interval

Socioeconomic status and net fertility in the demographic transition:

Socioeconomic status and net fertility in the demographic transition: Sweden in 1900 A preliminary analysis * FRANCESCO SCALONE, MARTIN DRIBE Lund University 1. Introduction. The decline of fertility in