Economic Geography. World Population. Unit 2: Population. World Population. World Cartogram
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1 I. INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION Economic Geography Unit 2: Population A. Aspects of Population (3) 1. Number of People 2. Spatial Distribution 3. Demographic Composition B. Demography World Cartogram II. WORLD POPULATION - LEVELS is Billion ( PRB 2011) Largest China 1.35 Billion (20% of World) US Ranks 3 rd with 312 Million (2011 Estimate) 10 Largest countries house 2/3 of world s population 1
2 World s Most Populous Countries (2011 prb) III. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION A. Density 1. Arithmetic Density (2010 World Atlas) Mongolia (193 rd ) - 5 ppmi 2 U.S. (142 nd ) - 83 ppmi 2 Egypt (92 nd ) ppmi 2 Bangladesh (6 th ) - 2,957 ppmi 2 Monaco (1 st ) - 42,734 ppmi 2 Arithmetic Density Physiological Density 2
3 Dot Density II. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION A. Density Arith. Dens Phys. Dens. (persons/mi2) (persons/mi2) Japan 873 (22 nd ) 7563 Egypt 203 (92 nd ) 7026 III. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION B. Global Patterns Major Population Clusters (5) 1) 2) 90% population on 10% of land 90% north of equator Live along Coasts East side of Continents (mid-latitudes) Altitude: below 1/3 mile above MSL 3) 4) 5) Total 73% 3
4 III. WORLD POPULATION - DISTRIBUTION B. Global Patterns Explanation of Clusters Historical Population Growth World USA Year Pop (M) RPG Year RNI * highest projection RPG Year MDC LDC B 5.75 B B 6.79 B B 8.25 B MDCs vs. LDCs Population and Annual Growth 4
5 World RNI C. Annual Growth (PRB) 2011 RPG World Annual Increase Year RPG Chg (M) World RPG and Annual Increase Growth MDCs vs LDCs 5
![[Births Deaths] + (In-mig) (Out-mig) Substitute: CBR, CDR, Net Migration (positive or negative) Pf Pc + [CBR](/docs-images/87/97105951/images/6-4.jpg "CDR] + Net Migration Simplify: [CBR CDR] =???? World RPG and Growth Year RPG Chg (M) 1955 1.88 53 1965 2.")
6 C. Annual Growth 1. Demographic Equation Future Pop = Current Pop + births deaths + immigrants emigrants Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = # births in year / 1000 people Crude Death Rate (CDR) = # deaths in year / 1000 people Natural Increase (NI) = CBR CDR (produces a whole number) Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = (CBR CDR) / 100 World CBR World CDR Crude = population as a whole not age / gender specific Can you see potential problems with this? Address those later. 1. Demographic Equation - Revisited Future Pop = Current Pop + births deaths + immigrants emigrants Pf Pc + [Births Deaths] + (In-mig) (Out-mig) Substitute: CBR, CDR, Net Migration (positive or negative) Pf Pc + [CBR CDR] + Net Migration Simplify: [CBR CDR] =???? World RPG and Growth Year RPG Chg (M) Pf Pc + [NI] + Net Migration 6
7 2. Population Doubling Time Number of years for current population to double Based upon the RPG (world) or RNI (country) Small changes in rate have dramatic impact on number / time to double. Shows how population momentum can work. Consider interest rates at bank or return on mutual funds Billions # Years Year Current World RPG of 1.09% (2011) means the world is doubling approximately every 66 yrs World Doubling Times World RNI Kazakhstan Pop Pyramids (momentum) Country RNI Change TFR Russia % 1.3 Ukraine % 1.1 Kazakhstan % 1.8 Belarus % 1.3 Azerbaijan % 1.9 Tajikistan % 2.4 Turkmenistan % 2.2 Kyrgyzstan % 2.4 Georgia % 1.1 Lithuania % 1.2 Armenia % 1.7 Latvia % 1.2 Estonia % 1.3 7
8 IV. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH D. Infant Mortality and Fertility Rates Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = # deaths 0-1 yrs per 1000 births World IMR Comparison INFANT MORTALITY RATES 2011 (deaths in 0-1 yrs / 1000 births) Africa 74 World 44 Asia 39 Latin America 19 Australia /NZ 4 USA / Canada 6 Europe 6 World IMR IV. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH D. Infant Mortality and Fertility Rates Fertility Rate (FR) = # births in year / 1000 females Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = # children a woman will have in her childbearing years (15-49) Replacement Rate the TFR required to maintain stable population over the course of several generations 8
9 World TFR E. Population Pyramids Age structure of population (age and gender) Males Left / Females Right (horizontal axis) Percent Age Cohorts by 5 years (vertical axis) World TFR US TFR Pyramid s MDC vs LDC 1. Pyramid Shapes Determined by: Fertility (largest impact) Migration Mortality (not as great) 9
10 2. Pyramid Structure Triangular Cape Verde (islands Horn of Africa) (RNI: +1.7 / TFR 2.5) 2. Pyramid Structure Concave Sides Chile (2010) (RNI: +0.9 / TFR 1.9) 2. Pyramid Structure Behive Denmark (RNI: +0.2 / TFR 1.9) 2. Pyramid Structure Tapered Base Germany (RNI: -0.2 / TFR 1.4) Pop M Pop M Decline 12.2% 10
11 US Pyramid USA Pyramids to 2050 (RNI: 0.9% TFR: 2.1) Population M M M Increase despite TFR = Replacement Why? F. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Stage 1: Stage 2: Stage 3: FSU Population and Fertility (momentum Kazakhstan v Azerbaijan) Country RNI Chg TFR Russia % 1.3 Kazakhstan % 1.8 Azerbaijan % 1.9 Tajikistan % 2.4 Turkmenistan % 2.2 Georgia % 1.1 Lithuania % 1.2 Armenia % 1.7 Latvia % 1.2 Source: Data Sheet
12 F. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) Stage 4: Stage 5: G. Multi-Phasic Response Alternative to DTM Argues that DTM shows association/ correlation not casual relationship Examples: Japan and FSU after 1991 FSU Demographic Transition (Causes?) Russia H. Dependency Ratios DR = [(<20) + (65 plus) / (20-64) Often expressed and number of dependents to 100 workers Can be expressed as a percentage Modified to for in some cases Kazakhstan 12
13 Percent under Age 15 DR YD% AD% Tot % Japan % US % Germany % Iraq % Tajikistan % Nigeria % Russia % Source: Data Sheet 2011 I. Theories on Growth 1. Malthus Viewpoint: Positive v. Preventative checks I. Theories on Growth 2. Hardin Viewpoint: Tragedy of the Commons / Fertility Commons Mutual Coercion 3. Simon Viewpoint: Brainpower / technology: self correcting problem Humans as the Ultimate Resource 13
14 Pyramid Websites 1. Census 2. Factfinder - Census 2. IIASA 3. DeStatis
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