November 6, 2018 Preview

Transcription

1 November 6, 2018 Preview All constitutional offices, including the governor, are up for election this November 6, as well as all 118 House legislative seats, 39 Senate seats, and the 18 Congressional districts. Democrats hope to ride the blue wave of liberal voters angry at President Trump, along with a

2 predicted higher turnout of union votes, to an overwhelming victory throughout the state this fall. The great unknown how voters will really turn out in November will determine the results of election day, more so than the individual achievements or potential of the candidates. Very few predicted the outcome of the 2016 elections, but most are betting that the Democrat voter turnout will far exceed two years ago, with a national blue wave and much higher union motivation and involvement in Illinois this fall. The legislative district map will be redrawn in 2020, based on the new census data. Under the current constitution and rules, the majority party has nearly all influence over the map drawing and ultimately controls how districts are drawn to ensure certain parties win individual districts. That new map will establish district boundaries for the next ten years. With the current makeup of the Illinois House at 67 Democrats to 51 Republicans, Democrats only need four more seats to reach the supermajority, meaning that they would have enough votes to overturn any Governor veto. The Senate Democrats already have, and will likely sustain, their supermajority status. That said, with a Governor JB Pritzker win, the Democrats could control the Governor s office and both chambers with a supermajority, along with all other constitutional offices. Governor Governor Bruce Rauner, a billionaire venture capital businessman, is seeking reelection after an embattled first term and serving as the first Republican governor of Illinois since George Ryan left office in Rauner and his lieutenant governor Evelyn Sanguinetti are the lone GOP statewide officeholders with a strong Democrat majority in both the House and Senate throughout their first four years. For over two of

3 those years, the state operated without an approved budget, relying on court-ordered continuous payments for state employees and Medicaid beneficiaries. Partisan tensions rose dramatically, largely due to Rauner s unrelenting public campaign against long-time Speaker of the House Michael Madigan and the governor s priority of pushing antilabor union initiatives, including right to work. While he touted economic growth by improving the business climate in Illinois and worked towards a new school funding formula for K-12 education, given the budget crisis and state credit rating downgrades, the governor was never able to have any real successes during his first term to promote going into the next election. Additionally, his office always seemed in limbo, especially after a complete firing of top staff in the middle of his term. Rauner s campaign focuses more on attacking Pritzker than on highlighting his own achievements, labeling his opponent part of the corrupt Chicago machine and tied to Speaker Madigan. Lieutenant Governor Evelyn Sanguinetti is running with Rauner again this November. No different than many other lieutenant governors, Sanguinetti never assumed strong leadership on any specific issues. JB Pritzker, heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune and another billionaire, won the Democrat primary in March to challenge Governor Rauner in November, taking away one of Rauner s key advantages in having more money to spend than his opponent. Pritzker, pledging to self-fund his entire campaign, enabled the Democrat party to instead focus its plentiful resources on legislative races instead. Pritzker is focusing on the failure of Rauner during the last four years, especially over the budget crisis, and enjoying the powerful endorsement of labor unions and trial attorneys.

4 Pritzker chose Representative Juliana Stratton as his running mate for lieutenant governor, an attorney and former Director of the Center for Public Safety and Justice at the University of Illinois at Chicago. Another twist in the governor s race is the entrance of Senator Sam McCann from downstate Jacksonville. McCann has served as a Republican legislator since 2011 but is now endorsed by (and funded by) the labor unions as an alternative third-party independent conservative candidate, who ultimately will take at least a few votes away from Governor Rauner. McCann is also promoting his true Republicanism after Governor Rauner signed a bill that allows public funds to be spent on abortions for Medicaid beneficiaries, angering conservative voters. In what could end up in a closer race, a few percentage points going to McCann rather than Rauner will ultimately benefit Pritzker and the Democrats. With less than two months left in the election, Governor Rauner s campaign has gone eerily quiet while Pritzker is riding a wave of positive polling, most showing Pritzker ahead of Rauner in the double digits, and some as high as 17 points. Both candidates have spent millions of their own dollars on the race, with expectations that this race could break national campaign spending records. During the primary races in March, Rauner and Pritzker spent a combined $105.2 million to win their nominations, about $100 per vote cast in the primary elections. JB has spent over $130 million in personal wealth on his own race, in addition to at least $7 million to a variety of Democrat organizations and candidates and appears to be outspending Rauner by 3-1. Governor Rauner gave his campaign $50 million in 2016 and is also funding several House races, giving the House Republicans $4 million and Attorney General candidate Erika Harold $1 million. The most prevalent issue in the gubernatorial campaign at this point is a graduated income tax. Illinois flat income tax rate is imposed by the

5 state constitution, but the General Assembly could add a new tax to those earning more than $1 million, as an example, without changing the constitution. Lawmakers can also pass legislation that would take a referendum to voters in a future election to change the state constitution and allow for a graduated income tax. JB Pritzker supports a graduated income tax; Rauner does not and wants to roll back the current income tax rates. Attorney General State Senator Kwame Raoul, who also represents the seat formerly held by President Obama, won the Democrat primary to run for Attorney General. He faces Republican attorney and former Miss America Erika Harold. Like Pritzker, Raoul gained the important union endorsements and could also enjoy riding the blue wave of a considerably higher turnout of Democrat voters than in Harold, who has not previously held office and thus has a name-recognition challenge, is the Republican party s only other potential winner for a constitutional office. The sitting Attorney General, Lisa Madigan, chose not to run for a fifth term. Secretary of State Secretary of State Jesse White (D), seeking his sixth four-year term, is expected to easily win reelection over Republican Jason Helland. Comptroller Former representative, Congressional candidate, and member of Governor Rauner s administration Darlene Senger is challenging popular Susana Mendoza (D) for the Comptroller s office. Mendoza is expected to easily win her second term but is also contemplating a run for Chicago Mayor next spring. Treasurer

6 Treasurer Michael Frerichs (D) is expected to easily defeat Republican challenger Jim Dodge for another term. State House Races With the unprecedented high number of retirements and those choosing not to run for reelection, resulting in 69 contested races and many of those open seats, Democrats are looking to pick up more than a few key seats this fall. Given the potential blue wave and millions of dollars available since their Governor nominee is self-funded, the Democrats are now staffing and funding several more House races than they normally would; in fact, according to sources, they are running in 13 more races than they planned to last year. Governor Rauner has pumped $6 million in the House Republican Organization since the primary election, aimed at protecting Republican seats against a potential Democrat supermajority for Speaker Madigan. In addition to Democrats having more money at their disposal with billionaire JB Pritzker funding his own governor campaign, the other game-changer for Republicans is the ongoing changing demographics of suburban Chicago. What was once a bastion of GOP votes throughout the collar counties, especially DuPage and Lake Counties, now has swing districts in almost every area with minority populations growing exponentially. Another twist in the House races is the entrance of conservative radio show host Dan Proft and money from businessman Dick Uhlein. Proft supported several candidates against the House GOP leader Jim Durkin in the primary, and many of those candidates won and are now in line to be elected to the House. Key Races:

7 37 th Rep. Margo McDermed (R) / Matthew Hunt Rep. McDermed is expected to prevail in this GOP Mokena-area district, but Hunt continues to raise money and send out mailers. 45 th - Rep. Christine Winger (R) / Cynthia Borbas - Rep. Winger was first elected in 2014 in the Bloomingdale area. The district is becoming more competitive electorally. 47 th Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R) / Jim Caffrey Rep. Mazzochi just replaced Rep. Patti Bellock who retired and is now Director of the Department of Healthcare and Family Services. 48 th Rep. Peter Breen (R) / Terry Costa Another changing demographic district around Lombard, House Democrats have already outspent the incumbent Breen by almost $100, th Tonia Khouri (R) / Karina Villa This Aurora district is an open seat due to Rep. Mike Fortner s retirement. Khouri has name recognition by serving on the DuPage County Board and winning a contested primary in the spring. 51 st - Rep. Helene Miller-Walsh (R) / Mary Edly-Allen Rep. Miller- Walsh was just appointed to office after former legislator Nick Sauer was accused of harassing an ex-girlfriend. Miller-Walsh is the wife of one-term conservative Congressman Joe Walsh. The Democrats had not planned to run in this Libertyville Lake County district but added Mary Edly-Allen after Sauer resigned. 53 rd - Eddie Corrigan (R) / Mark Walker. Republican Rep. David Harris decided not to run for reelection in this open seat in the Arlington Heights area. Mark Walker is a former state representative.

8 54 th Rep. Tom Morrison (R) / Maggie Trevor Democrats are far outspending incumbent Tom Morrison in this Palatine area district, again once safe for Republicans but now open for a Democrat pickup. 61 st Rep. Sheri Jesiel (R) / Joyce Mason - Rep. Jesiel has represented the Gurnee area district since 2015, but Democrats are outspending the Republicans by as much as $200, th Rep. John Cabello (R) / Jake Castanza Rep. Cabello has served the Rockford/Loves Park district since 2012 but Castanza is gaining the needed union support and money. 71 st Rep. Tony McCombie (R) / Joan Padilla Rep. McCombie is seeking her first reelection in the northwestern Savanna area district. 79 th - Rep. Lindsay Parkhurst (R) / Lisa Dugan Rep. Parkhurst is the first GOP legislator in the Kankakee district in the past 30 years. Lisa Dugan represented the district from and is attempting to gain it back. 93 rd Rep. Norine Hammond (R) / John Curtis Curtis is running again in this rematch from 2016 in the Macomb area. Hammond has served since th Rep. Mark Batinick (R) / Mica Freeman Rep. Batinick is looking for his third term in the Plainfield/Shorewood area. Democrats are far out-spending him so far. 111 th Rep. Monica Bristow (D) / Mike Babcock Bristow was appointed to replace retiring Rep. Dan Beiser in the metro-east district, which could swing either way.

9 118 th Rep. Natalie Phelps Finnie (D) / Patrick Windhorst - This far southern Illinois district was the strongest district for President Trump. Phelps Finnie was appointed earlier this year with her cousin Brandon Phelps stepped down. Republicans are feeling confident about flipping this seat. Governor Rauner has specifically focused on races for Rep. Peter Breen, Eddie Corrigan, Rep. Lindsay Parkhurst, Mike Babcock, and Rep. Terri Bryant. Senate Races While the Governor is giving millions of dollars to the House Republican races, he is not funding any of the Senate Republican campaigns. Senate President John Cullerton already enjoys a supermajority in the Senate with 37 Democrats to 22 Republicans and will likely retain that status. Senate Democrats have spent over $4 million to the Senate Republicans $230,000. Key Races: 21 st Sen. Mike Connelly (R) / Laura Ellman Sen. Connelly has represented the Naperville district since 2009 but given the changing demographics and liberal movement, Ellman is spending money to take a shot. 23 rd Sen. Tom Cullerton (D) / Seth Lewis Seth Lewis, State Farm Agent, is challenging Cullerton for a second time in the Villa Park/Elmhurst area. 24 th Sen. Chris Nybo (R) / Suzanne Glowiak Sen. Nybo has also represented this area around Elmhurst since 2011, but again demographics are now leaning towards Democrats.

10 27 th Sen. Tom Rooney (R) / Ann Gillespie Sen. Rooney, former Mayor of Rolling Meadows and high school teacher, was appointed to the Palatine seat following Sen. Matt Murphy s retirement. Gillespie has benefitted from Senate Democrat funding. 36 th - Sen. Neil Anderson (R) / Gregg Johnson Sen. Anderson defeated long-time Senator Mike Jacobs in 2014 in the Quad Cities district, but the union vote could be much higher this time. 38 th Sen. Sue Rezin (R) / Heidi Henry Sen. Rezin has represented the Morris/LaSalle Peru area since 2010, but there are rumors she may retire. Henry is running to gain name recognition. 41 st Sen. John Curran (R) / Bridget Fitzgerald Sen. Curran replaced Sen. Christine Radogno following her retirement last year, so he is seeking his first election. Fitzgerald is cousin to Senate President John Cullerton. (Cullerton already has another cousin in the Senate, Tom Cullerton.) 48 th Sen. Andy Manar (D) / Seth McMillan Sen. Manar, former Chief of Staff to Senate President Cullerton, seeks his second Senate term in the Litchfield district. 56 th Hal Patton (R) / Rachelle Aud Crowe This is the open seat in Alton due to Senator Bill Haine s retirement. Patton is the former Mayor of Edwardsville. 59 th Sen. Dale Fowler (R) / Steve Webb Sen. Fowler defeated longtime Sen. Gary Forby is the far southern Illinois district.

11 Congress While all 18 Congressional seats are contested, the key races focus on Republicans defending their incumbencies during a blue wave. Congressman Peter Roskam (R) represents the suburban 6 th district. He is facing a serious challenge from political newcomer Sean Casten (D). Congressman Mike Bost (R) represents the 12 th district in Southern Illinois that includes traditional democrat strongholds in the metro-east area. He is being challenged by Brenden Kelly (D) the current St. Clair County State s Attorney. Congressman Rodney Davis (R) faces healthcare activist Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in the Central Illinois 13 th district. Congressman Randy Hultgren (R) is being challenged in the suburban 14 th district by progressive democrat Lauren Underwood. Underwood is a registered nurse who spent time as a Senior Advisor to the Department of Health and Human Services in the Obama administration.