2016 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN REDISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF NEW ELECTORAL BOUNDARIES. Background and Summary 1. Comparison of Old and New Margins 5

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1 2016 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN REDISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF NEW ELECTORAL BOUNDARIES CONTENTS PAGE Background and Summary 1 Comparison of Old and New Margins 5 Electoral Pendulum for 2018 Election 6 Detailed Listings for all Districts 7 Detailed Listings for Abolished Districts 63 Transfer of Old District Enrolments Election - Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results Election Pre-Election Pendulum Election Post-Election Pendulum 71 Appendix Details of Calculations and Methodology 72 Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

2 The Author Antony Green is an Election Analyst with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, and has worked for the ABC on every federal, state and territory election coverage since Antony studied at Sydney University, obtaining a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. He is an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney. Antony produces regular publications on electoral matters for State Parliamentary Libraries. Party Abbreviations ALP FFP GRN IND LIB OTH Labor Party Family First The Greens Independents Liberal Party Others Comments and Feedback This publication has been prepared based on 2014 election results combined with the reports, enrolment data, maps and electronic boundary files made available by the South Australian Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission (EDBC). Calculations of new district margins has been made by re-allocating booths to new districts. In some cases, polling places have been split to match enrolment data. Note that this publication does not use the same methodology for calculating new margins as the EDBC. Details on the calculations used in this publication can be found in the Appendix on page 72. A summary of the old electorate margins, this publication s estimated new margins, and the estimates by the EDBC can be found on page 5. Comments and suggestions on the transfer of polling places are welcome. Messages can be sent to elections@your.abc.net.au. Source Material The final determination of the Electoral District Boundaries Commission and associated data can be found at

3 BACKGROUND AND SUMMARY The South Australian Constitution Act requires that a review of the state s electoral boundaries be undertaken at the mid-point of each parliamentary term. Under Section 77 of the Constitution, the new boundaries must be drawn to ensure that enrolments for all districts are within 10% of the state average or quota. Meeting the quota requirement of Section 77 is the primary objective of the redistribution, but Section 83 of the Constitution sets out further requirements for the new boundaries and criteria to be applied. 83 Electoral fairness and other criteria (1) In making an electoral redistribution the Commission must ensure, as far as practicable, that the electoral redistribution is fair to prospective candidates and groups of candidates so that, if candidates of a particular group attract more than 50 per cent of the popular vote (determined by aggregating votes cast throughout the State and allocating preferences to the necessary extent), they will be elected in sufficient numbers to enable a government to be formed. (2) In making an electoral redistribution, the Commission must have regard, as far as practicable, to (a) the desirability of making the electoral redistribution so as to reflect communities of interest of an economic, social, regional or other kind; (b) the population of each proposed electoral district; (c) the topography of areas within which new electoral boundaries will be drawn; (d) the feasibility of communication between electors affected by the redistribution and their parliamentary representative in the House of Assembly; (e) the nature of substantial demographic changes that the Commission considers likely to take place in proposed electoral districts between the conclusion of its present proceedings and the date of the expiry of the present term of the House of Assembly, and may have regard to any other matters it thinks relevant. (3) For the purposes of this section a reference to a group of candidates includes not only candidates endorsed by the same political party but also candidates whose political stance is such that there is reason to believe that they would, if elected in sufficient numbers, be prepared to act in concert to form or support a government. The criteria in section (2) include similar grounds to those in the Commonwealth Electoral Act and in the relevant laws of other states and territories. Paragraph (1) of Section 83 is unique to South Australia and is usually referred to as the fairness criterion. Paragraphs (1) and (3) have been interpreted to mean that the EDBC must try to draw boundaries so that the major party that wins the majority of the state s two-party preferred vote should also win a majority of seats in the House of Assembly. The fairness criterion was added after the 1989 election when the Bannon Labor government was re-elected despite polling only 48.1% of the state-wide two-party vote. The Labor Party won 22 seats and formed government with the support of two Labor-aligned independents. The new provision was first applied in drawing boundaries ahead of the 1993 election. At both the 1993 and 1997 elections, the Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party preferred vote and formed government. The Labor Party has formed government after the last four elections since At only one of those elections, in 2006, did the Labor Party record a majority of the state-wide two-party vote. Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

4 In 2002 the Labor Party recorded 49.1% of the two-party preferred vote and finished one seat short of a majority, winning 23 of the 47 seats in the House of Assembly. The Liberal Party won 20 seats, the balance of power with three Independents with past ties to the Liberal Party, and one National MHA. The Labor Party formed government by obtaining the parliamentary support of Peter Lewis, a conservative independent and former Liberal MHA who held a seat that otherwise would have been won by the Liberal Party. In 2010 the Labor Party was re-elected to government with 26 members from a minority 48.4% of the two-party preferred vote. The Liberal Party won 18 seats and there were three Independents. The Liberal Party s failure to win resulted from the swing in marginal seats being significantly smaller than the state-wide swing. The EDBC had drawn new boundaries based on 2006 election results such that a uniform swing of 6.9% should have delivered the Liberal Party majority government. The state-wide swing was 8.4% but not uniform, with only two of the seven seats in the EDBC s target range being won by the Liberal Party. Labor s two-most marginal seats in fact swung to the Liberal Party. The Labor Party s campaign in the marginal seats was more effective than the Liberal Party s. In its 2012 redistribution report, the EDBC ruled that the 2010 result was due to campaign factors. The EDBC decided that the boundaries drawn in 2008 had met the fairness criteria based on past voting patterns, and the EDBC couldn t have predicted the changed voting patterns that produced 2010 result. The EDBC chose to make only minor boundary changes ahead of the 2014 election. In 2014 there was a further state-wide swing against the Labor Party. The Liberal Party recorded 53.0% of the two-party preferred vote and won 22 seats against 23 for Labor. Independents won the other two seats, both of which recorded Liberal majorities based on an alternate two-party preferred count. As in 2002, the Labor Party formed government after gaining the support of the crossbench members holding underlying Liberal seats. Beyond the Independent seats, there was a question whether application of the fairness criteria should have produced more than a bare majority of 24 underlying Liberal seats for a 53.0% Liberal state-wide two-party preferred vote. After two elections that produced the wrong winner, the EDBC embarked on a more drastic re-drawing of boundaries. In its 2016 deliberations, the EDBC abandoned some of the boundary arrangements that had evolved over two decades, and instead gave greater weight to correcting the imbalance produced by the 2014 election result. In its report the EDBC maintained a link between several old and new districts despite radical changes to boundaries. This publication has chosen to treat some of the more radical changes as being cases of districts being abolished and created. This publication treats four former districts as being abolished, four new districts as being created, with three other districts treated as being re-named. In summary the abolished, created and re-named districts are The elongated north-south aligned districts of Bright and Mitchell in southern Adelaide have been abolished, replaced by the more rectangular Black and Gibson. The anti-clockwise rotation of districts through southern Adelaide results in Fisher being abolished and a new seat called Hurtle Vale being created to the south-west. North of Elizabeth the district of Napier has been abolished and a new seat called King created to the east of Elizabeth. The re-named districts are Ashford becoming Badcoe, Goyder now known as Narungga and Little Para reverting to its former name Elizabeth. The following points summarise the political consequences of the new boundaries. The previously Labor held districts of Colton, Elder, Mawson and Newland become notional Liberal seats on the new boundaries. The district of Fisher was won by Independent Bob Such in The district recorded a Liberal majority by the alternate two-party preferred count. Fisher has been abolished and 2 Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

5 the new seat of Hurtle Vale has been created to the south-west as a notional Labor seat. Note that calculations in this publication do not take account of Labor s victory in Fisher at the December 2014 by-election following the death of Bob Such. The new seat of King is a very marginal Labor seat where the abolished district of Napier had been a safe Labor seat. The district of Light loses its remaining rural component and becomes a largely urban district based on Gawler and Munno Para. The district of Mawson moves out of the metropolitan area, retaining only McLaren Vale, McLaren Flat and Willunga from its former boundaries. The district gains Aldinga Beach and Port Willunga from Kaurna, and Kangaroo Island and the western Fleurieu Peninsula from Finniss. As noted the district s Labor majority is overturned and the new Mawson is a notionally Liberal-held seat. Changes have little impact on the Liberal margin for Finniss, but the new boundaries make the district into a largely urban seat covering the shore of Encounter Bay. Lee is significantly weakend for Labor, losing Largs and Semaphore to Port Adelaide while gaining Henley Beach from Colton. Morphett remains a safe Liberal seat but its margin is weakened as a result of the changes that make neighbouring Colton a notional Liberal seat. Port Adelaide and Elizabeth become safer for Labor in the same changes that make Lee and the new seat of King marginal for Labor. In addition to the boundary changes, three members will re-contest as Independents against their former party Frances Bedford (Florey, ex-labor), Duncan McFetridge (Morphett, ex- Liberal) and Troy Bell (Mount Gambier, ex-liberal). This publication does not account for the possible impact of Nick Xenophon s SA Best party on the 2018 election. The table below summarise the changes in party standings ahead of the 2018 election Election Notional Party Status of New Electorates S e a t s H e l d b y P a r t y Labor Liberal Independent Total Old Boundaries 2014 result Old boundaries (Two-party preferred) New Boundaries (Two-party preferred) New Boundaries with Independents New District Margins Comparing this Publication s Estimates to the EDBC Report. As set out in the Appendix, this publication calculates new margins by transferring polling place results from old to new districts, either in full or by estimating a split between new districts. Declaration votes (absent, postal, pre-poll votes) for old districts are apportioned to new districts based on enrolment transfers, but the votes transferred are weighted based on party vote in the polling places contained in the transferred area. The EDBC transfers polling place results using accurate information drawn from roll mark-off data. Ballot paper secrecy means the EDBC cannot know the vote an elector casts at a polling place. However, roll mark-off data allows the EDBC to know the proportion of electors voting at a polling place that came from specific census collector district (CCD). All addresses on the electoral roll are located within the geographic area of a CCD. The EDBC also uses roll mark-off data to allocate declaration votes back to CCDs. However, the EDBC s method allocates declaration votes to CCDs so that every CCD in a district is recorded with the same ratio of party votes. The CCDs were the geographic building blocks used by the EDBC to draw new boundaries. To calculate the estimated margins for each new district, the EDBC accumulates the party votes from each CCD into totals for each new district. The EDBC also makes some adjustments by projecting forward based on population and demographic trends in each new district. Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

6 The major differences between the estimated district margins in this publication and those produced by the EDBC are due differences in dealing with the declaration vote. The EDBC s method spreads the ratio of declaration party votes evenly across a district. This publication weights the proportion of declaration party vote to match the varying proportions of polling place party vote across a district. The differences produced by the two methods are small in most districts, but more significant where former districts had clear geographic patterns to the party vote. As an example, the former electorate of Lee extended north of Bower Road into Semaphore and Largs Bay. This area recorded much higher levels of Labor vote than areas south of Bower Road. Bower Road is the new boundary between Lee and Port Adelaide, which means a strong Labor voting area previously in Lee has been transferred to Port Adelaide. The EDBC has estimated the new Labor margin for Lee as 2.6% where this publication using weighted declaration vote data estimates a weaker margin of 1.5%. The same transfer helps explain why the EDBC estimate for Port Adelaide s new Labor margin is 12.5% and this publication s estimate is 14.0%. Another example is the electorate of Adelaide. It loses an area around the Prospect North booth to Enfield, while gaining parts of Collinswood covered by the Walkerville North joint booth from Enfield. The Liberal two-party preferred percentage for Adelaide in 2014 was 52.4%. The Prospect North booth Liberal result was 43.6% compared to the much stronger Adelaide declaration vote of 54.5%. The Liberal result in the Walkerville North booth transferred into Adelaide was 57.9% compared to a much weaker 44.4% for the Enfield declaration vote. This publication s estimate for Adelaide has the Liberal margin rising from 2.4% to 3.0%. The EDBC estimate sees the Liberal margin decline to 2.0%. This publication weighted the declaration vote to reflect the booth results and produced an increase in the Liberal margin. The EDBC s method of evenly divided the declaration vote for Adelaide and Enfield and produced an estimate where the Liberal margin declined. The table on the next page shows the margins for existing districts along with this publication s and the EDBC s estimated new margins. Districts with a significant difference between the two estimates are highlighted. These differences have little impact on the overall impact of the redistribution. The EDBC report estimates that a uniform swing of 3.2% is needed for Labor to gain the four seats it needs for majority government. This publication estimates the swing as 3.1%. Neither of these estimated swings take any account of Independents or third parties winning seats. Acknowledgements My thanks to the staff of the SA Electoral Commission and the Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission for assistance in providing the source data used as the basis of analysis. All errors and omissions are entirely the fault of the author. Antony Green November Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

7 Comparison of Old and New 2-Party Preferred Margins Old EDBC Publication District Margin Margin Estimate Notes Adelaide ** LIB 2.4 LIB 2.0 LIB 3.0 Badcoe ALP 1.9 ALP 4.2 ALP 4.1 Formerly Ashford Black (New seat) LIB 2.6 LIB 2.3 Bragg LIB 18.7 LIB 16.6 LIB 17.1 Bright LIB 3.3 (Abolished) (Abolished) See Black and Gibson Chaffey LIB 25.1 LIB 24.4 LIB 24.0 Cheltenham ALP 14.3 ALP 14.4 ALP 14.4 Colton ALP 1.5 LIB 3.7 LIB 3.9 Croydon ** ALP 18.9 ALP 19.6 ALP 21.2 Davenport LIB 8.1 LIB 8.9 LIB 9.5 Dunstan LIB 3.1 LIB 3.9 LIB 3.6 Elder ALP 1.8 LIB 4.3 LIB 4.1 Elizabeth ** ALP 7.4 ALP 9.9 ALP 11.0 Formerly Little Para Enfield ALP 8.1 ALP 6.2 ALP 5.6 Finniss LIB 13.8 LIB 13.7 LIB 13.1 Fisher + LIB 7.2 (Abolished) (Abolished) See Hurtle Vale Flinders LIB 29.2 LIB 28.7 LIB 28.9 Florey ALP 2.5 ALP 9.2 ALP 9.1 Frome + LIB 10.8 LIB 10.5 LIB 9.8 New 2CP IND 9.4 v LIB Gibson (New seat) LIB 3.2 LIB 3.7 Giles ALP 7.0 ALP 5.7 ALP 5.2 Hammond LIB 14.6 LIB 16.3 LIB 16.8 Hartley LIB 2.4 LIB 3.3 LIB 3.1 Heysen ** LIB 13.5 LIB 13.2 LIB 12.2 Hurtle Vale (New seat) ALP 1.7 ALP 1.3 See Fisher Kaurna ALP 7.7 ALP 8.4 ALP 9.2 Kavel LIB 14.0 LIB 14.1 LIB 13.8 King (New seat) ALP 1.4 ALP 0.1 Lee ** ALP 4.5 ALP 2.6 ALP 1.5 Light ALP 2.8 ALP 3.9 ALP 4.0 MacKillop LIB 26.7 LIB 26.7 LIB 26.7 Mawson ** ALP 5.6 LIB 3.2 LIB 4.2 Mitchell LIB 1.2 (Abolished) See Black and Gibson Morialta LIB 10.0 LIB 11.6 LIB 12.0 Morphett LIB 12.9 LIB 7.7 LIB 7.8 Mount Gambier LIB 21.4 LIB 21.6 LIB 21.4 Napier ALP 9.1 (Abolished) See King Narungga LIB 12.9 LIB 13.8 LIB 14.1 Formerly Goyder Newland ALP 1.4 LIB 0.1 LIB 0.2 Playford ALP 12.6 ALP 11.5 ALP 11.7 Port Adelaide ** ALP 10.6 ALP 12.5 ALP 14.0 Ramsay ALP 18.4 ALP 17.4 ALP 17.8 Reynell ** ALP 10.0 ALP 9.8 ALP 10.8 Schubert LIB 14.6 LIB 12.4 LIB 12.3 Stuart LIB 20.5 LIB 20.1 LIB 20.1 Taylor ALP 11.6 ALP 8.8 ALP 8.5 Torrens ALP 3.5 ALP 2.6 ALP 2.5 Unley LIB 9.8 LIB 9.2 LIB 8.9 Waite LIB 11.4 LIB 10.4 LIB 10.1 West Torrens ALP 10.8 ALP 12.2 ALP 12.3 Wright ALP 3.0 ALP 4.5 ALP 4.3 Underlining indicates seats that change notional party status on the new boundaries. ** indicates seats with significant difference in estimates (> 1%). + Fisher and Frome were won by Independent at the 2014 election. Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

8 Electoral Pendulum for 2018 Election Electorate Margin Electorate Margin Labor Seats (20) Croydon 21.2 Ramsay 17.8 Cheltenham 14.4 Port Adelaide 14.0 West Torrens 12.3 Playford 11.7 Elizabeth 11.0 Reynell 10.8 Kaurna 9.2 Florey ** 9.1 Taylor 8.5 Enfield 5.6 Giles 5.2 Wright 4.3 Badcoe 4.1 Light 4.0 Torrens 2.5 Lee 1.5 Hurtle Vale 1.3 King 0.1 Liberal (26) Flinders 28.9 MacKillop 26.7 Chaffey 24.0 Mount Gambier ** 21.4 Stuart 20.1 Bragg 17.1 Hammond 16.8 Narungga 14.1 Kavel 13.8 Finniss 13.1 Schubert 12.3 Heysen 12.2 Morialta 12.0 Waite 10.1 Frome (IND held) 9.8 Davenport 9.5 Unley 8.9 Morphett ** 7.8 Mawson 4.2 Elder 4.1 Colton 3.9 Gibson 3.7 Dunstan 3.6 Hartley 3.1 Adelaide 3.0 Black 2.3 Newland 0.2 Independent (1) Frome (v LIB) 9.4 Underlining indicates districts that have notionally changed party status on the new boundaries. Hurtle Vale is listed as a Labor gain compared to the notional Liberal status of Fisher at the 2014 election. (See redistribution summary on preceding pages.) Frome is shown with both its estimated Independent margin versus the Liberal party, and with its alternate Liberal two-party margin. ** indicates districts where the sitting member elected for a party in 2014 will re-contest as an independent. The above pendulum does not take account of how campaigning by Nick Xenophon s SA Best will impact on the marginality of seats. 6 Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

9 DETAILED LISTINGS FOR ALL DISTRICTS Format for Listings A summary table of new party totals is provided at the top of each district listing. The summary table includes a line for each party that recorded votes within the district at the last election. There is a column of first preference votes and percentages, of two-candidate preferred votes and percentages, and a two-party preferred vote and percentage. In most districts, the two-candidate and two-party preferred totals are the same. In districts that include parts of the former districts of Fisher, Frome, Heysen and Mount Gambier, different twocandidate and two-party preferred results are shown. The final lines in each summary table list the formal, informal and total votes for each new district. A percentage indicating the 2014 votes transferred as a percentage of 2016 redistribution enrolment is also shown. After the summary table, a series of mini-tables and totals are provided that correspond to transfers of enrolment between old and new districts. Each listing includes a separate total for each transfer. Transfers from old to new district are listed first, followed by transfers out of the existing district and into a new district. An example of an enrolment transfer table is shown below. Badcoe includes transfers from the following old districts From: Ashford (14997 voters, last election votes, 92.4% of enrolment) Black Forest, Black Forest East, Clarence Gardens, Clarence Park (75%), Edwardstown, Goodwood (50%), Keswick, Kurralta Park, Melrose Park, Plympton (50%), Plympton Park (50%), South Plympton (50%), South Plympton North, Declaration Vote (60%) OTH Votes % This example shows a transfer From the old district of Ashford to the new district of Badcoe. The full listing for Badcoe also includes transfer from the old district of Elder and West Torrens, and transfers out to the new districts of Elder, Morphett and Unley. Each entry includes a line showing the total of enrolled voters transferred, as well as the calculated number of votes and the total votes as a percentage of enrolled voters transferred. Below this is a list of all booths that form part of the transfer. Booths that have been split are shown with a percentage indicating the proportion of the booth transferred. A percentage of declaration votes transferred is also shown. Totals of two-party preferred and first preference votes are shown for each transfer. Where a transfer includes an area that finished as a twocandidate preferred contest in 2006, a separate 2-candidate preferred total is also provided. Details of transfers from the four electorates defined as being abolished can be found on page 63. A detailed explanation of the methodology and calculations used in this publication can be found in the Appendix on page 72. Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

10 Adelaide Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability Independent Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Adelaide includes transfers from the following old districts From: Adelaide (23988 voters, last election votes, 86.4% of enrolment) Adelaide, Adelaide Hospital, Adelaide South, Adelaide West, Nailsworth, North Adelaide, North Adelaide East, Prospect, Prospect South, Walkerville, Walkerville North, Declaration Vote (94%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % From: Enfield (632 voters, 556 last election votes, 88.0% of enrolment) Broadview (5%), Walkerville North, Declaration Vote (3%) OTH Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Adelaide To: Enfield (1640 voters, 1369 last election votes, 83.5% of enrolment) Prospect North, Declaration Vote (6%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

11 Badcoe (replaces Ashford) Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability FREE Australia Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Badcoe includes transfers from the following old districts From: Ashford (14997 voters, last election votes, 92.4% of enrolment) Black Forest, Black Forest East, Clarence Gardens, Clarence Park (75%), Edwardstown, Goodwood (50%), Keswick, Kurralta Park, Melrose Park, Plympton (50%), Plympton Park (50%), South Plympton (50%), South Plympton North, Declaration Vote (60%) OTH Votes % From: Elder (5664 voters, 5019 last election votes, 88.6% of enrolment) Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Park Holme South (50%), South Plympton (75%), Declaration Vote (23%) OTH Votes % From: West Torrens (3899 voters, 3660 last election votes, 93.9% of enrolment) Kurralta Park, Netley (50%), Plympton, Plympton West, Declaration Vote (16%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Ashford To: Elder (1872 voters, 1508 last election votes, 80.6% of enrolment) Daw Park, Westbourne Park, Declaration Vote (8%) OTH Votes % To: Morphett (6738 voters, 5906 last election votes, 87.7% of enrolment) Camden Park, Novar Gardens, Plympton (50%), Plympton Park (50%), Plympton West, South Plympton (50%), Declaration Vote (27%) OTH Votes % To: Unley (1222 voters, 1106 last election votes, 90.5% of enrolment) Clarence Park (25%), Goodwood (50%), Declaration Vote (5%) OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

12 Black (New seat) Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Independent Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Notes: See abolished seat details for Bright and Mitchell. Black includes transfers from the following old districts From: Bright (14617 voters, last election votes, 91.6% of enrolment) Hallett Cove, Hallett Cove East, Hallett Cove South, Marino, Seacliff, Declaration Vote (58%) Votes % From: Davenport (401 voters, 369 last election votes, 92.0% of enrolment) Bedford Park (50%), Declaration Vote (2%) Votes % From: Fisher (1716 voters, 1698 last election votes, 99.0% of enrolment) Happy Valley West (50%), Declaration Vote (7%) OTH Votes % Candidate Preferred: LIB 637 (38.4%) OTH 1020 (61.6%) From: Mitchell (10752 voters, 9874 last election votes, 91.8% of enrolment) Seacombe Heights (35%), Seaview Downs, Sheidow Park, Sheidow Park South, Decl Vote (43%) OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

13 Bragg Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Bragg includes transfers from the following old districts From: Bragg (19977 voters, last election votes, 92.6% of enrolment) Beaumont, Burnside, Glen Osmond, Glenunga, Kensington, Kensington Park, Linden Park, Rose Park (45%), Summertown (25%), Tusmore, Wattle Park, Declaration Vote (79%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN Votes % From: Dunstan (2364 voters, 1863 last election votes, 78.8% of enrolment) Kensington, Norwood (25%), Declaration Vote (9%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % From: Hartley (3461 voters, 3216 last election votes, 92.9% of enrolment) Kensington Gardens (50%), Tranmere (75%), Declaration Vote (14%) Votes % From: Morialta (9 voters) From: Waite (33 voters) The following areas have been transferred out of Bragg To: Dunstan (2186 voters, 1906 last election votes, 87.2% of enrolment) Rose Park (55%), Declaration Vote (9%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN Votes % To: Heysen (1566 voters, 1474 last election votes, 94.1% of enrolment) Crafers, Piccadilly (50%), Declaration Vote (6%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

14 To: Kavel (320 voters, 296 last election votes, 92.5% of enrolment) Piccadilly (50%), Declaration Vote (1%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN Votes % To: Morialta (1095 voters, 1111 last election votes, 101.5% of enrolment) Summertown (75%), Uraidla, Declaration Vote (4%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

15 Chaffey Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Chaffey includes transfers from the following old districts From: Chaffey (22268 voters, last election votes, 92.8% of enrolment) Barmera, Berri, Cobdogla, Glossop, Loxton, Loxton North, Lyrup, Monash, Moorook, Paringa, Ramco, Renmark, Renmark North, Renmark West, Swan Reach, Waikerie, Winkie, Declaration Vote (90%) Votes % From: Schubert (254 voters, 209 last election votes, 82.3% of enrolment) Sedan, Declaration Vote (1%) Votes % From: Stuart (1036 voters, 1036 last election votes, 100.0% of enrolment) Blanchetown, Cadell, Morgan, Declaration Vote (4%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Chaffey To: Hammond (2368 voters, 2011 last election votes, 84.9% of enrolment) Karoonda, Lameroo, Nildottie, Pinnaroo, Purnong, Declaration Vote (10%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

16 Cheltenham Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Cheltenham includes transfers from the following old districts From: Cheltenham (23116 voters, last election votes, 84.9% of enrolment) Albert Park, Cheltenham, Findon, Findon West, Pennington (75%), Queenstown, Rosewater, Royal Park (35%), Royal Park South (35%), Seaton Park, St Clair, Woodville Gardens (50%), Woodville South, Woodville West, Declaration Vote (87%) Votes % From: Croydon (2259 voters, 1930 last election votes, 85.4% of enrolment) Beverley, Kilkenny (50%), St Clair, Declaration Vote (9%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Cheltenham To: Croydon (1107 voters, 929 last election votes, 83.9% of enrolment) Pennington (25%), Woodville Gardens (50%), Declaration Vote (4%) Votes % To: Lee (2186 voters, 1971 last election votes, 90.2% of enrolment) Royal Park (65%), Royal Park South (65%), Seaton, Declaration Vote (8%) Votes % To: Port Adelaide (132 voters, 25 last election votes, 18.9% of enrolment) Declaration Vote (0%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

17 Colton Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Colton includes transfers from the following old districts From: Colton (18197 voters, last election votes, 89.8% of enrolment) Fulham, Fulham Gardens, Henley Beach, Henley Beach South, Kidman Park, Lockleys, Lockleys North, Declaration Vote (69%) Votes % From: Morphett (8377 voters, 7321 last election votes, 87.4% of enrolment) Glenelg (25%), Glenelg North, West Beach, Declaration Vote (34%) Votes % From: West Torrens (696 voters, 529 last election votes, 76.0% of enrolment) Lockleys, Declaration Vote (3%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Colton To: Lee (8225 voters, 7509 last election votes, 91.3% of enrolment) Grange, Seaton Park, Seaton West, Declaration Vote (31%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

18 Croydon Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Independent Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Croydon includes transfers from the following old districts From: Cheltenham (1107 voters, 929 last election votes, 83.9% of enrolment) Pennington (25%), Woodville Gardens (50%), Declaration Vote (4%) Votes % From: Croydon (17681 voters, last election votes, 83.2% of enrolment) Allenby Gardens (50%), Brompton, Challa Gardens, Croydon, Croydon Park, Ferryden Park, Kilkenny (50%), Renown Park, West Croydon, West Hindmarsh (50%), Woodville Gardens, Declaration Vote (71%) Votes % From: Enfield (5374 voters, 4399 last election votes, 81.9% of enrolment) Ferryden Park, Mansfield Park, Woodville Gardens, Declaration Vote (22%) OTH Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Croydon To: Cheltenham (2259 voters, 1930 last election votes, 85.4% of enrolment) Beverley, Kilkenny (50%), St Clair, Declaration Vote (9%) Votes % To: West Torrens (5108 voters, 4614 last election votes, 90.3% of enrolment) Allenby Gardens (50%), Flinders Park, West Hindmarsh (50%), Declaration Vote (20%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

19 Davenport Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Independent Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Davenport includes transfers from the following old districts From: Davenport (10423 voters, 9566 last election votes, 91.8% of enrolment) Aberfoyle Park North, Bedford Park (50%), Bellevue Heights, Flagstaff Hill, Flagstaff Hill East (75%), Declaration Vote (41%) Votes % From: Fisher (14320 voters, last election votes, 94.0% of enrolment) Aberfoyle Park, Aberfoyle Park Central, Aberfoyle Park North, Aberfoyle Park South, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon (40%), Happy Valley (50%), Happy Valley West (50%), Declaration Vote (55%) OTH Votes % Candidate Preferred: LIB 5153 (39.1%) OTH 8032 (60.9%) The following areas have been transferred out of Davenport To: Black (401 voters, 369 last election votes, 92.0% of enrolment) Bedford Park (50%), Declaration Vote (2%) Votes % To: Waite (14547 voters, last election votes, 91.3% of enrolment) Belair, Blackwood, Blackwood Central, Coromandel Valley, Eden Hills, Flagstaff Hill East (25%), Hawthorndene, Declaration Vote (57%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

20 Dunstan Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Dunstan includes transfers from the following old districts From: Bragg (2186 voters, 1906 last election votes, 87.2% of enrolment) Rose Park (55%), Declaration Vote (9%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN Votes % From: Dunstan (19943 voters, last election votes, 90.1% of enrolment) College Park, Kent Town, Marden, Maylands, Norwood (75%), Norwood West, St Morris, St Peters, St Peters West, Trinity Gardens, Declaration Vote (79%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % From: Hartley (3188 voters, 2758 last election votes, 86.5% of enrolment) Felixstow, Glynde (50%), Declaration Vote (13%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Dunstan To: Bragg (2364 voters, 1863 last election votes, 78.8% of enrolment) Kensington, Norwood (25%), Declaration Vote (9%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % To: Torrens (2780 voters, 2615 last election votes, 94.1% of enrolment) Klemzig, Vale Park, Declaration Vote (11%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

21 Elder Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability FREE Australia Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Elder includes transfers from the following old districts From: Ashford (1872 voters, 1508 last election votes, 80.6% of enrolment) Daw Park, Westbourne Park, Declaration Vote (8%) OTH Votes % From: Elder (9590 voters, 8214 last election votes, 85.7% of enrolment) Daw Park, Melrose Park, Mitchell Park, Mitchell Park South, St Marys, Declaration Vote (39%) OTH Votes % From: Waite (14463 voters, last election votes, 93.0% of enrolment) Clapham, Colonel Light Gardens South, Daw Park, Hawthorn, Pasadena, St Marys, Westbourne Park, Declaration Vote (57%) OTH Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Elder To: Badcoe (5664 voters, 5019 last election votes, 88.6% of enrolment) Ascot Park, Edwardstown, Park Holme South (50%), South Plympton (75%), Declaration Vote (23%) OTH Votes % To: Gibson (6599 voters, 5988 last election votes, 90.7% of enrolment) Marion, Marion South, Morphettville, Oaklands Park, Warradale, Declaration Vote (27%) OTH Votes % To: Morphett (3045 voters, 2679 last election votes, 88.0% of enrolment) Park Holme, Park Holme South (50%), South Plympton (25%), Declaration Vote (12%) OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

22 Elizabeth (replaces Little Para) Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Elizabeth includes transfers from the following old districts From: Little Para (13632 voters, last election votes, 85.4% of enrolment) Craigmore South, Elizabeth, Elizabeth East, Elizabeth Grove, Elizabeth Park, Elizabeth South, Elizabeth Vale (75%), Hillbank (20%), Declaration Vote (50%) OTH Votes % From: Napier (14035 voters, last election votes, 82.8% of enrolment) Craigmore, Craigmore North, Craigmore South, Elizabeth Downs, Declaration Vote (54%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Little Para To: King (11090 voters, 9298 last election votes, 83.8% of enrolment) Elizabeth Vale (25%), Golden Grove, Greenwith West, Hillbank (80%), Salisbury Heights, Salisbury Park, Declaration Vote (41%) OTH Votes % To: Taylor (2343 voters, 1968 last election votes, 84.0% of enrolment) Elizabeth North, Declaration Vote (9%) OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

23 Enfield Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability Independent Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Enfield includes transfers from the following old districts From: Adelaide (1640 voters, 1369 last election votes, 83.5% of enrolment) Prospect North, Declaration Vote (6%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % From: Enfield (17583 voters, last election votes, 85.2% of enrolment) Blair Athol, Blair Athol North, Broadview (85%), Clearview, Enfield, Enfield South, Kilburn, Nailsworth, Prospect North, Declaration Vote (72%) OTH Votes % From: Torrens (5380 voters, 3945 last election votes, 73.3% of enrolment) Northfield, Northgate (75%), Declaration Vote (21%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Enfield To: Adelaide (632 voters, 556 last election votes, 88.0% of enrolment) Broadview (5%), Walkerville North, Declaration Vote (3%) OTH Votes % To: Croydon (5374 voters, 4399 last election votes, 81.9% of enrolment) Ferryden Park, Mansfield Park, Woodville Gardens, Declaration Vote (22%) OTH Votes % To: Torrens (972 voters, 780 last election votes, 80.2% of enrolment) Broadview (10%), Hampstead Gardens, Declaration Vote (4%) OTH Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

24 Finniss Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Dignity for Disability National Party Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment 90.2% Finniss includes transfers from the following old districts From: Finniss (16187 voters, last election votes, 90.4% of enrolment) Middleton, Mount Compass, Port Elliot, Victor Harbor, Victor Harbor East, Victor Harbor South, Declaration Vote (79%) Votes % From: Hammond (6826 voters, 6267 last election votes, 91.8% of enrolment) Currency Creek, Goolwa, Goolwa Central, Declaration Vote (28%) OTH Votes % From: Heysen (176 voters, 37 last election votes, 21.0% of enrolment) Declaration Vote (1%) Labor L/NP ALP LIB GRN OTH Votes % Candidate Preferred: LIB 22 (61.1%) GRN 14 (38.9%) The following areas have been transferred out of Finniss To: Heysen (255 voters, 268 last election votes, 105.1% of enrolment) Yundi, Declaration Vote (1%) Votes % To: Mawson (8899 voters, 7839 last election votes, 88.1% of enrolment) American River, Cape Jervis, Kingscote, Myponga, Parawa, Parndana, Penneshaw, Second Valley, Sellicks Beach, Yankalilla, Declaration Vote (35%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

25 Flinders Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Flinders includes transfers from the following old districts From: Flinders (22738 voters, last election votes, 89.8% of enrolment) Arno Bay, Ceduna, Cleve, Coffin Bay, Cummins, Darke Peak, Elliston, Far West Mobile, Karkoo, Kirton Point, Lock, Minnipa, North Shields, Poochera, Port Kenny, Port Lincoln, Port Lincoln Central, Port Lincoln South, Port Neill, Smoky Bay, Streaky Bay, Tumby Bay, Ungarra, Wangary, Warramboo, Wirrulla, Wudinna, Declaration Vote (96%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Flinders To: Giles (930 voters, 908 last election votes, 97.6% of enrolment) Cowell, Declaration Vote (4%) Votes % Antony Green ABC Election Unit November

26 Florey Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Florey includes transfers from the following old districts From: Florey (9690 voters, 9018 last election votes, 93.1% of enrolment) Modbury (75%), Modbury North, Modbury West, Para Hills East (50%), Para Vista, Valley View, Declaration Vote (41%) Votes % From: Playford (17004 voters, last election votes, 90.5% of enrolment) Ingle Farm, Ingle Farm North (50%), Para Vista, Pooraka (90%), Pooraka North, Valley View, Walkley Heights, Declaration Vote (67%) Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Florey To: Newland (5354 voters, 4405 last election votes, 82.3% of enrolment) Hope Valley North, Modbury (25%), Modbury South, Redwood Park (25%), Ridgehaven, St Agnes West, Declaration Vote (23%) Votes % To: Torrens (1789 voters, 1645 last election votes, 92.0% of enrolment) Gilles Plains, Declaration Vote (8%) Votes % To: Wright (6660 voters, 6135 last election votes, 92.1% of enrolment) Modbury Heights, Para Hills East (50%), Redwood Park (75%), Wynn Vale West, Declaration Vote (28%) Votes % Note: The sitting member for Florey, Frances Bedford, has announced her resignation from the Labor Party and intention to contest the 2018 election as an Independent. 24 Antony Green ABC Election Unit November 2017

27 Frome Labor Party Liberal Party Greens Family First National Party Brock Independent Formal Vote Informal Vote Redistribution enrolment Transferred votes as a percentage of redistribution enrolment % Note: The two-candidate preferred estimate is based on adjusting first preference votes by comparing major party votes in the Assembly and the Council, and then applying the 2014 distribution of preferences for Frome. Frome includes transfers from the following old districts From: Frome (22102 voters, last election votes, 90.9% of enrolment) Auburn, Balaklava, Blyth, Brinkworth, Clare, Crystal Brook, Georgetown, Manoora, Marrabel, Napperby, Port Pirie, Port Pirie South, Redhill, Risdon Park, Risdon Park South, Riverton, Saddleworth, Solomontown, Tarlee, Watervale, Yacka, Declaration Vote (86%) OTH Votes % Candidate Preferred: LIB 7875 (40.2%) OTH (59.8%) From: Goyder (999 voters, 921 last election votes, 92.2% of enrolment) Hamley Bridge, Owen, Declaration Vote (4%) OTH Votes % The following areas have been transferred out of Frome To: Narungga (2325 voters, 2254 last election votes, 96.9% of enrolment) Alford, Bute, Lochiel, Port Broughton, Snowtown, Declaration Vote (9%) OTH Votes % Candidate Preferred: LIB 1161 (52.6%) OTH 1046 (47.4%) To: Stuart (1135 voters, 1117 last election votes, 98.4% of enrolment) Gladstone, Laura, Declaration Vote (4%) OTH Votes % Candidate Preferred: LIB 400 (36.6%) OTH 692 (63.4%) Antony Green ABC Election Unit November