President of the United States of America

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Clifford Harrell
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1 To: From: Re: Interested Parties Crossroads Strategies LLC 2016 Election Results Date: November 9, 2016 The conclusion of the 2016 presidential and congressional elections marks the end of one of the strangest chapters in recent American political history. From self-described socialist Bernie Sanders rise within and initial domination of the Democratic Party to the long, strange trip that was the Trump candidacy on the Republican side, the last 24 months will be studied for years to come. In a year of dramatic and unpredictable ebbs and flow, the largest surprise of them all came on election night with the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. In addition to Mr. Trump s victory, Republicans have kept control of the US House and Senate and picked up governorships in three states. This memorandum provides a recap of key races across the country and provides a glimpse at leadership in the 115 th Congress. President of the United States of America With 279 electoral votes, Donald J. Trump will be the 45 th President of the United States of America. It appears that Sec. Clinton will win the popular vote, but Mr. Trump will win in the Electoral College. The 2016 election will be remembered for the emergence of anti-establishment populism across the American electorate. Despite Mr. Trump s gaffes on the trail, his often times xenophobic message, and his checkered past statements; his brand of outsider appealed to a wide swath of Americans in both traditional Republican strongholds and blue Midwestern states. Mr. Trump s victory is in part the result of late momentum fueled by the FBI s reopening of its investigation of Sec. Clinton s use of a private server while Secretary of State. Despite Director Comey s announcement exonerating her on Sunday, November 6 th, the trust issues raised by this late announcement clearly resonated with voters.

2 279 Trump, 218 Clinton 47.5 percent Trump; 47.6 percent Clinton; 3.3 percent Johnson; 1.0 percent Stein;.0.3 percent McMullin U.S. Senate Pre-Election: 54 Republicans 45 Democrats 1 Independent Post-Election: 51 Republicans 47 Democrats 1 Independents 1Runoff With GOP incumbents running in competitive races in 10 purple and blue states, the 2016 Senate map was daunting for Republicans. When combined with the sheer number of Republican incumbents standing for reelection (24), and the perceived headwinds created by the Trump presidential campaign, this year s Senate races were forecast to be especially challenging for the party. Mr. Trump s coattails and highly effective campaigns by GOP incumbents insulated the party from the substantial losses predicted earlier this year. The party will maintain its majority in the 115 th Congress with a minimum of 52 votes. The New Hampshire race has not yet been called an appears to be headed to a recount. 2

3 Competitive Races Arizona Despite a more difficult electoral environment created by Trump s inflammatory immigration rhetoric and a late effort by the Clinton campaign to swing the state, incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain handily defeated Democratic nominee Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick 53 to 41 percent. Florida Incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio defeated Democratic nominee Rep. Patrick Murphy by a margin of eight points. Sen. Rubio, who reversed course and decided to run for reelection late in the cycle, ran an effective campaign against Rep. Murphy by successfully capitalizing on Murphy s youth and exaggerations about his resume. Though Democrats gained some momentum late in the race, Sen. Rubio expanded the small lead he had consistently held going into the final days of the election and capitalized on a better than expected Trump showing in the state. Georgia GOP Incumbent Johnny Isakson won reelection with 55 percent of the vote. The state s election laws require that a candidate receives 50 percent plus one on Election Day or face a runoff election. There was concern that Sen. Isakson might find himself in this position. The incumbent outperformed Mr. Trump by over four percent to avoid a runoff. Illinois Facing the toughest challenge of any Republican this cycle in deep blue Illinois, Sen. Mark Kirk lost reelection to former Rep. Tammy Duckworth. Despite his attempts to distance himself from his party and establish his moderate credentials, the state s voters gave Rep Duckworth a comfortable 14 point victory. Indiana The entry of former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) into this race late in the cycle turned an almost sure win for Republicans into one of the most closely watched races of the year. Bayh s post-senate career as a lobbyist became an almost crippling liability. GOP Rep. Todd Young easily won this race, garnering 52 percent of the vote. Iowa Sen. Charles Grassley (R) easily won reelection, beating Democratic nominee Patty Judge 60 percent to 35 percent. Despite Democrats hope that they could capitalize on the Judiciary Committee Chairman s role in denying consideration of Judge Merrick Garland s nomination to the Supreme Court to make the contest competitive, a race never materialized. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul defeated Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. As in Iowa, when Sen. Paul was focused on his presidential bid, Democrats attempted unsuccessfully to make this seat competitive early in the cycle. Running in deeply red Kentucky, the incumbent comfortably defeated Mayor Gray 57 to 42. Louisiana No candidate in the race to replace retiring Sen. David Vitter received the requisite 50 percent to avoid a runoff election. The top two vote getters, Republican State Treasurer John 3

4 Kennedy will face off against Democratic Public Services Commissioner Foster Campbell on December 3 rd. Mr. Kennedy is expected to win the runoff. Missouri In one of the later breaking races of the cycle, incumbent Republican Sen. Roy Blunt narrowly defeated Democratic Sec. of State Jason Kander. Sec. Kander ran one of the most effective races in the country this year and capitalized on the anti-washington tenor of the electorate. Mr. Trump s 19 point victory in the state and a late flurry of GOP resources to Missouri helped push Sen. Blunt to a 49 to 46 win. Nevada In arguably the only seat where the GOP was on offense last night, the race to replace retiring Minority Leader Harry Reid was among the most watched in the country. Ultimately, the strength of the Democratic turnout machine propelled Democratic nominee Catherine Cortez Masto to victory by 2.5 points. New Hampshire With 99 percent of precincts reporting, incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte appears to be a few hundred votes behind Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan. The race remains too close to call and may end in a recount. North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr defeated Democratic nominee Deborah Ross 51 to 43. Democrats made a herculean effort to knock off Sen. Burr and to deliver the state for Sec. Clinton, shifting several million dollars to the state in the last 30 days. Ohio Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman easily knocked off former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland in what looked to be one of 2016 s more competitive races early in the cycle. Sen. Portman s 19 point win is a testament to his effective campaign and a reflection of a strong performance by Trump in Ohio. Pennsylvania- Polling in Pennsylvania implied that Republican Sen. Pat Toomey was likely to experience a major drag from the Trump candidacy in the commonwealth. Mr. Trump s surprise victory in the state and Sen. Toomey s effective campaign brought the incumbent victory. Sen. Toomey defeated Ms. McGinty by a margin of 48.9 to Wisconsin Incumbent GOP Senator Ron Johnson defeated former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold 50.2 to Long seen as a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats, this race tightened significantly late in the cycle. Sen. Johnson benefitted from a strong performance by Mr. Trump. RACE STATUS REPUBLICAN CAND DEMOCRATIC CAND STATUS AL R Richard Shelby Ron Crumpton R Hold Ak R Lisa Murkowski Ray Metcalfe R Hold AZ R John McCain Ann Kirkpatrick R Hold 4

5 AR R John Boozman Conner Eldridge R Hold CA D Kamala Harris (D) Loretta Sanchez (D) D Hold CO D Darryl Glenn Michael Bennett D Hold CT D Dan Carter Richard Blumenthal D Hold FL R Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy R Hold GA R Johnny Isakson Jim Barksdale HI D John Carroll Brian Schatz R Hold D Hold ID R Mike Crapo Jerry Sturgill R Hold IL R Mark Kirk Tammy Duckworth D Pickup IN R Todd Young Evan Bayh R Hold IA R Chuck Grassley Patty Judge R Hold KS R Jerry Moran Patrick Wiesner R Hold KY R Rand Paul Jim Gray R Hold LA R John Kennedy Foster Campbell Runoff MD D Kathy Szeliga Chris Van Hollen D Hold MO R Roy Blunt Jason Kander R Hold NV D Joe Heck Catherine Cortez Mastro D Hold NH R Kelly Ayotte Maggie Hassan Likely Recount NY D Wendy Long Chuck Schumer D Hold NC R Richard Burr Deborah Ross ND R John Hoeven Eliot Glassheim OH R Rob Portman Ted Strickland OK R James Lankford Mike Workman OR D Mark Callahan Ron Wyden PA R Pat Toomey Kathleen McGinty R Hold R Hold R Hold R Hold D Hold R Hold SC R Tim Scott Thomas Dixon R Hold SD D John Thune Jay Williams R Hold 5

6 UT R Mike Lee Misty Snow R Hold VT D Scott Milne Patrick Leahy D Hold WA D Chris Vance Patty Murray D Hold WI R Ron Johnson Russ Feingold R Hold US House of Representatives Pre-Election: 246 Republicans, 186 Democrats, 3 Vacancies Post-Election: 238 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and 4 Uncalled House Republicans had a better night than anyone could have predicted just a few months ago. Capitalizing on Mr. Trump s performance, Democrats only made small gains in the House of Representatives. As of this morning, Democrats have tallied up a net gain of 7 seats. 10 races are still undecided. This smaller Republican majority may present problems for Speaker Ryan and his leadership team. The loss of some moderate Members unaffiliated with the conservative Freedom Caucus will effectively increase the group s power within the Conference. For the Speaker, navigating this dynamic presents inherent and obvious challenges. Moving policy in a bipartisan manner aided by moderate Democrats carries as many political risks as does appeasing the far right in an attempt to prevent revolt. Speaker Ryan s working relationship with President Trump and his Administration is another matter altogether. Although not directly at odds with one another during the campaign, it was obvious that Speaker Ryan and candidate Trump did not see eye to eye regarding campaign tactics and certain policy issues. Now that Republicans are in charge of both chambers of Congress and the Administration, there is reason to believe that the Speaker and the new President will put their differences aside and work together. RACE REPUBLICAN CAND DEMOCRATIC CAND STATUS AZ 1 Paul Babeu Tom O Halleran D Hold CA 10 Jeff Denham Michael Eggman R Hold CA 21 David Valadao Emilio Huerta R Hold CA 25 Steve Knight Bryan Caforio R Hold CA 49 Darrell Issa Douglas Applegate R Hold 6

7 CA 7 Scott Jones Ami Bera D Hold CO 6 Mike Coffman Morgan Carroll R Hold FL 02 Neal Dunn Walter Dartland R Pickup FL 07 John Mica Stephanie Murphy D Pickup FL 10 Thuy Lowe Val Demings D Pickup FL 13 David Jolly Charlie Crist D Pickup FL 18 Brian Mast Randy Perkins R Pickup FL 26 Carlos Curbelo Joe Garcia R Hold IA 1 Rod Blum Monica Vernon R Hold IA 3 David Young Jim Mowrer R Hold IL 10 Robert Dold Brad Schnieder D Pickup IN 9 Trey Hollingsworth Shelli Yoder R Hold KS 3 Kevin Yoder Jay Sidie R Hold ME 2 Bruce Poliquin Emily Cain R Hold MI 1 Jack Bergman Lon Johnson R Hold MI 7 Tim Walberg Gretchen Driskell R Hold MN 2 Jason Lewis Angie Craig R Hold MN 8 Stewart Mills Rick Nolan D Hold NC 13 Ted Budd Bruce Davis R Hold NE 2 Don Bacon Brad Ashford R Pickup NM 2 Steve Pearce Roxanne Lara R Hold NV 03 Danny Tarkanian Jacky Rosen D Pickup NV 04 Cresent Hardy Ruben Kihuen D Pickup NH 01 Frank Guinta Carol Shea-Porter D Pickup NJ 05 Scott Garrett Josh Gottheimer D Pickup NY 1 Lee Zeldin Anna Throne-Holst R Hold NY 19 John Faso Zephyr Teachout R Hold NY 22 Claudia Tenney Kim Myers R Hold 7

8 NY 24 John Katko Colleen Deacon R Hold NY 3 Tom Suozzi Jack Martins D Hold PA 8 Brian Fitzpatrick Steve Santarsiero R Hold PA 9 Bill Shuster Art Halvorson R Hold TX 23 Will Hurd Pete Gallego R Hold UT 4 Mia Love Doug Owens R Hold VA 04 Michael Wade Donald McEachin D Pickup VA 10 Barbara Comstock LuAnn Bennett R Hold WI 8 Mike Gallagher Tom Nelson R Hold Governors Pre-Election: 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats, and 1Independent Post-Election: 33 Republicans 14 Democrats, 1 Independent, and 2 Too Close to Call Though races at the federal level drew the greatest scrutiny this election cycle, a number of gubernatorial races attracted substantial attention from both national parties and outside groups as well. These races crossed the ideological spectrum, with competitive contests across a broad geographic area. Ironically, Democratic candidates ran strong races in traditionally red states and vice versa. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence s nomination as Vice President turned what appeared to be a Democratic pickup opportunity into one of the closer gubernatorial races in the country. Despite these odds, Republican nominee Eric Holcomb held the seat, taking 51.4 percent of the vote. Missouri Riding strong coattails from Mr. Trump, GOP nominee Eric Greitens defeated Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster 51to 45. Greitens, a political outsider, defeated a slew of more widely known Republicans in the primary and defeated his Democratic opponent in this late breaking race. Montana-Incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock currently leads GOP challenger by 12,000 votes with 78 percent of precincts reporting. He appears poised to win this race, but it has not yet been called. New Hampshire Incumbent Maggie Hassan s Senate candidacy created an open gubernatorial seat in this swing state. Republican nominee Chris Sununu defeated Democratic nominee Chris Van Ostern 49 to 47. 8

9 North Carolina the gubernatorial race that attracted the most national attention remains too close to call. Incumbent Republican Pat McCrory created a national firestorm with the enactment of the state s Bathroom Bill, legislation addressing which bathroom transgender individuals must use. Democratic challenger Roy Cooper currently holds a 15,000 vote lead, but the race has not been called. Vermont-Incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin s retirement opened an opportunity for popular GOP Lt. Governor Phil Scott to run competitively in this decidedly Democratic state. Lt. Gov Scott defeated his Democratic opponent Sue Minter 52 to 44. West Virginia Democrat Jim Justice, owner of the famous Greenbrier resort, overcame the state s deep red hue to win the Governor s mansion. Mr. Justice defeated GOP State Senate President Bill Cole 49 percent to 42 percent. RACE STATUS REPUBLICAN CAND DEMOCRATIC CAND STATUS DE D Colin Bonini John Carney D Hold IN R Eric Holcomb John Gregg R Hold MO D Eric Greitens Chris Koster R Pickup MT D Greg Gianforte Steve Bullock Too close to call NH D Chris Sununu Colin Van Ostern R Pickup NC R Pat McCrory Roy Cooper Too close to call ND R Doug Burgum Marvin Nelson R Hold OR D Bud Pierce Kate Brown D Hold UT R Gary Herbert Mike Reinholtz R Hold VT D Phil Scott Sue Minter R Pickup WA D Bill Bryant Jay Inslee D Hold WV D Bill Cole Jim Justice D Hold Leadership in the 115 th Congress A combination of events will spell changes to the leadership of both parties in both Chambers in the 115 th Congress. In the Senate, the retirement of Democratic Leader Harry Reid (NV) and the ascension of Sen. Chuck Schumer (NY) to that position creates an opening in the leadership hierarchy. This open slot and the potential for a race for the Democratic Whip position between 9

10 Sens. Dick Durbin (IL) and Patty Murray (WA) have the potential to reshape much of the leadership team in the Senate. The presumptive Majority Leader has also indicated a potential for a broader rearrangement of the party s leadership organization. Despite their electoral losses, it does not appear that the Senate Republican Conference will see major changes in the next Congress. On the House side, the GOP s leadership races are the largest source of potential intrigue. Continuing a theme that has repeated itself over the last few years, the conservative Freedom Caucus may attempt to run one or more of its Members for elected leadership positions in the next Congress. The House GOP Conference is currently slated to hold it s internal leadership elections on November 15 th. It is unclear if any of these seats will be contested. Additionally, a number of Members of the Conference are pushing to delay these elections until later in the year. Of most importance is the Speaker s gavel. Though the House Republicans will vote on their party s designee for Speaker during the party elections, the actual vote on the House Floor will not occur until January Some of the Chamber s more conservative members may withhold their Floor votes for Ryan pending his actions as Speaker during this year s lame duck session. US Senate Senate Majority Leadership Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (KY) Majority Whip: John Cornyn (TX) Conference Chair: John Thune (SD) Conference Vice Chair: Roy Blunt (MO) Policy Committee Chair: John Barrasso (WY) National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair: Cory Gardner (CO) or Thom Tills (NC) Senate Minority Leadership Minority Leader: Charles Schumer (NY) Minority Whip: Richard Durbin (IL) or Patty Murray (WA) Conference Chair: Patty Murray (WA) or Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI) Caucus Secretary: Patty Murray (WA) or Sen. Debbie Stabenow (MI) Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee: Cory Booker (NJ), Chris Coons (DE), Al Franken (MN) 10

11 US House of Representatives House Majority Leadership Speaker: Paul Ryan (WI) Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (CA) Majority Whip: Steve Scalise (LA) Chief Deputy Whip: Patrick McHenry (NC) Conference Chair: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA) Conference Vice Chair: Jim Jordan (OH) or an alternate Freedom Caucus Member Conference Secretary: Jim Jordan (OH) or an alternate Freedom Caucus Member House Minority Leadership Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (CA) Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer (MD) Asst. Democratic Leader: James Clyburn (SC) Caucus Chair: Joe Crowley (NY) Caucus Vice Chair: Linda Sanchez (CA) Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair: Ben Ray Lujan (NM) Steering and Policy Committee Chair: Rosa DeLauro (CT) National Republican Congressional Committee: Steve Stivers (OH) or Roger Williams (TX) Republican Policy Committee Chair: Rep Luke Messer (IN) Republican Study Committee Chair: Andy Harris (MD) or Mark Walker (NC) US Senate Committee Leadership Republicans will maintain their majority in the Senate and their gavels as Committee Chairs. Retirements and term limits mean the 115 th Congress will see a number of new Chairs and Ranking Members. Most notably, Sen. Richard Shelby is term-limited as Chair of Banking and Sen. Jim Inhofe is similarly positioned at the Environment and Public Works Committee. On the Democratic side, the retirement of Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Barbara Mikulski sets up a cascade effect that will impact the top spot on several Committees. 11

12 115 th Senate Committee Predictions Chairman Ranking Member Agriculture Pat Roberts (KS) Debbie Stabenow (MI) Appropriations Thad Cochran (MS) Pat Leahy (VT), Dick Durbin (IL), Patty Murray (WA) Armed Services John McCain (AZ) Jack Reed (RI) Budget Mike Enzi (WY) Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) or Bernie Sanders (VT) Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Commerce, Science and Transportation Energy and Natural Resources Environment and Public Works (EPW) Mike Crapo (ID) John Thune (R-SD) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Sen. John Barrasso (WY) Sherrod Brown (OH) Bill Nelson (FL) Maria Cantwell (WA) Tom Carper (DE) Finance Orrin Hatch (UT) Ron Wyden (OR) Foreign Relations Bob Corker (TN) Robert Menendez (NJ) Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Lamar Alexander (TN) Ron Johnson (WI) Patty Murray (WA) or Bernie Sanders (VT) Claire McCaskill (MO) Indian Affairs John Hoeven (ND) Jon Tester (MT) Judiciary Chuck Grassley (IA) Patrick Leahy (VT) OR Dick Durbin (IL) Rules and Administration Roy Blunt (MO) or Richard Shelby (AL) Dick Durbin (IL) or Tom Udall (NM) Special Aging Susan Collins (ME) Bob Casey( PA) Select Intelligence Richard Burr (NC) Dianne Feinstein (CA) 12

13 Small Business and Entrepreneurship Veterans Affairs James Risch (ID) Johnny Isakson (GA) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Richard Blumenthal (CT) U.S. House of Representative Committee Leadership Retirements among many senior Members of the Republican Conference will create a number of vacancies in the leadership of key Committees in the 115 th Congress. The retirements of Education and Workforce Committee Chairman John Kline (MN) and House Administration Committee Chairwoman Candice Miller (MI) create openings at the top of those Committees, but it does not appear that any of these races will be contested. The most closely watched race is that for the gavel of the Energy and Commerce Committee. In addition, Veterans Affairs Committee Chair Jeff Miller (FL) is retiring, and several Members will vie for that gavel. On the Democratic side of the aisle, Rep. Chris Van Hollen s (MD) Senate victory and the decision of Rep. Corrine Brown (FL) to step down as Ranking Member of Veterans Affairs have created two openings for the top spot on those Committees. John Yarmuth (KY) appears poised to take the Budget gavel and the Veteran s Affairs Ranking Member position appears to be a race between Reps. Tim Walz (MN) and Mark Takano (CA). 115 th House Committee Predictions Chairman Ranking Member Agriculture Michael Conaway (TX) Collin Peterson (MN) Appropriations Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) Nita Lowey (NY) Armed Services Mac Thornberry (TX) Adam Smith (WA) Budget Tom Price (GA) John Yarmuth (KY) Education and the Workforce Energy and Commerce Virginia Foxx (NC) John Shimkus (IL) or Greg Walden (OR) Bobby Scott (VA) Frank Pallone (NJ) Ethics Charlie Dent (PA) Linda Sancehz (CA) Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (TX) Maxine Waters (CA) 13

14 Foreign Affairs Ed Royce (CA) Eliot Engel (NY) Homeland Security Mike McCaul (TX) Bennie Thompson (MS) House Administration Gregg Harper (MS) Robert Brady (PA) Intelligence Devin Nunes (CA Adam Schiff (CA) Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (VA) John Conyers (MI) Natural Resources Rob Bishop (UT) Peter DeFazio (OR) Oversight and Government Reform Jason Chaffetz (UT) Elijah Cummings (MD) Rules Pete Sessions (TX) Louise Slaughter (NY) Science, Space and Technology Lamar Smith (TX) Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX) Small Business Steve Chabot (OH) Nydia Velazquez (NY) Transportation and Infrastructure Bill Shuster (PA) Peter DeFazio (OR) Veterans Affairs Gus Bilirakis (Phil Roe (TN) Mark Takano (CA) or Tim Walz (MN) Ways and Means Kevin Brady (TX) Sander Levin (MI) 14

Leadership in the 115 th Congress

Leadership in the 115 th Congress A combination of events will spell changes to the leadership of both parties in both Chambers in the 115 th Congress. In the Senate, the retirement of Democratic Leader