Presidential Election

Transcription

1 2012 Election Recap

2 Presidential Election

3 And The Winner Is Barack Obama Mitt Romney 332 Electoral Votes 206 Electoral Votes Photo Credit: New York Observer, The White House

4 2012 Electoral Map Obama-332Electoral Votes Romney-206 Electoral Votes Source: Huffington Post

5 Swing State Breakdown Barack Obama Colorado Florida Iowa Nevada Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin Mitt Romney North Carolina

6 How They Voted: Popular Vote Barack Obama 62,611,250 (51%) Mitt Romney 59,134,475 (48%) Source: CNN Politics

7 How They Voted: Gender Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Male (47%) 45% 52% Female (53%) 55% 44% Source: CNN Politics

8 How They Voted: Race Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Caucasian (72%) 39% 59% African American (13%) 93% 6% Latino (10%) 71% 27% Asian American (3%) 72% 26% Other (2%) 58% 38% Source: CNN Politics

9 How They Voted: Age Group Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney (19%) 60% 36% (27%) 52% 45% (38%) 47% 51% 65+ (16%) 44% 56% Source: CNN Politics

10 How They Voted: Income Level Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney <$50k (41%) 60% 38% $50K-$100K (31%) 46% 52% >$100K (28%) 44% 54% Source: CNN Politics

11 How They Voted: Race-Gender Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Caucasian Men (34%) 35% 62% Caucasian Women (38%) African American Men (5%) African American Women (8%) 42% 56% 87% 11% 96% 3% Latino Men (5%) 65% 33% Latino Women (6%) 76% 23% Source: CNN Politics

12 How They Voted: Marital Status Group (Percentage of Electorate) Married Men (29%) Married Women (30%) Unmarried Men (18%) Unmarried Women (23%) Barack Obama Mitt Romney 38% 60% 46% 53% 56% 40% 67% 31% Source: CNN Politics

13 How They Voted: Party ID Party (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrat (38%) 92% 7% Independent (29%) 45% 50% Republican (32%) 6% 93% Source: CNN Politics

14 How They Voted: Economic Indicators Economic Conditions (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Good (21%) 90% 9% Not so good (45%) 55% 42% Poor (31%) 12% 85% Getting better (39%) 88% 9% Getting worse (30%) 9% 90% Staying about the same (29%) 40% 57% Source: CNN Politics

15 How They Voted: Personal Traits Trait Cares about people like me Is a strong leader Shares my values Has a vision for the future Barack Obama Mitt Romney 81% 18% 38% 61% 42% 55% 45% 54% Source: Washington Post

16 How They Voted: Affordable Care Act Should ACA Be Repealed? Answer Yes 49% No 44% Source: CNN Politics

17 2008 vs. 2012: Obama vs. Romney Obama-332Electoral Votes Romney-206 Electoral Votes Source: Huffington Post

18 2008 vs. 2012: Obama vs. McCain Source: PoliticalMaps.org

19 How They Voted: 2008 vs Barack Obama McCain/Romney ,456,897 (53%) 59,934,814 (46%) ,611,250 (51%) 59,134,475 (48%) Change (% change from 2008) -6,845,647 (-9.8%) -800,339 (-1.3%) Source: CNN Politics, New York Times

20 How They Voted: 2008 vs Group (Percentage of Electorate) Barack Obama 08 Barack Obama 12 Caucasian 43% 39% African American 95% 93% Latino 67% 71% Men 49% 45% Women 56% 55% Youth (18-29) 66% 60% Independents 52% 45% Source: CNN Politics, New York Times, Washington Post

21 How They Voted: 2008 vs Group (Percentage of Electorate) John McCain 08 Mitt Romney 12 Caucasian 55% 59% African American 4% 6% Latino 31% 27% Men 48% 52% Women 43% 44% Youth (18-29) 32% 37% Independents 44% 50% Source: CNN Politics, New York Times, Washington Post

22 How Obama Won Developed and executed a vastly superior Get-Out-The-Vote operation Defined Romney early with very little rebuttal from Romney campaign Maintained high favorability with women, minorities, and younger voters.

23 GOP Takeaways Need dramatically revamped voter identification, registration, and turnout operation. Reach parity on early voting. Enlarge tent to increase GOP appeal to more demographic groups o Women, Latino, African American, and Younger Voters.

24 Potential Cabinet Picks

25 White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew-Current Chief of Staff Valerie Jarrett-Current Senior Advisor Source: National Journal

26 White House Press Secretary Jay Carney-Current Press Secretary Josh Earnest-Current Deputy Press Secretary Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri- Current Deputy Communications Director Source: National Journal

27 National Security Team Sec. of State Senator John Kerry (D- MA) Ambassador Susan Rice-Current UN Ambassador Tom Donilon- National Security Advisor Sec. of Defense Michele Flournoy- Former Defense Under Secretary Former Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE) Ash Carter- Current Deputy Defense Secretary Richard Danzig-Former Navy Secretary Source: National Journal

28 National Security Team Attorney General Eric Holder-Current Attorney General Governor Deval Patrick (D- MA) Senator Amy Klobuchar (D- MN) Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Senator Claire McCaskill (D- MO) Janet Napolitano-Current DHS Secretary Lisa Madigan-IL Attorney General CIA Director Michael Morell-Actiong CIA Director Former Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA) John Brennan- Counterterrorism Advisor Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) Tom Donilon-National Security Advisor Senator Dick Lugar (R-IN) Source: National Journal, Politico

29 National Security Team Director of National Intelligence James Clapper-Current Director of National Intelligence John Brennan- Counterterrorism Advisor National Security Advisor Denis McDonough- Deputy National Security Advisor Ambassador Susan Rice- Current UN Ambassador James Steinberg-Former Deputy Secretary of State Michele Flournoy-Former Defense Under Secretary Source: National Journal

30 National Security Team Sec. of Homeland Security Ray Kelly-NYC Police Commissioner Bill Bratton-Law Enforcement Expert Thaddeus Allen-Retired Coast Guard Commander Clark Ervin-Former DHS Inspector General Source: National Journal

31 Economic Team Sec. of Treasury Jack Lew-Current White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles-Former White House Chief of Staff Larry Fink-CEO of BlackRock Roger Altman-Former Deputy Treasury Secretary Office of Management and Budget Director Douglas Elmendorf- Congressional Budget Office Director Gene Sperling-National Economic Council Director Jeffrey Zients-Deputy OMB Director Rob Nabors-White House Legislative Official Source: National Journal

32 Economic Team Sec. of Commerce Ron Kirk-US Trade Representative Fred Hochberg- President of the Import- Export Bank Karen Mills- Administrator of the Small Business Administration Council of Economic Advisors Chair Alan Krueger-Current Council of Economic Advisors Chair Peter Diamond-MIT Economist David Cutler-Harvard Economist Jeffrey Liebman-Former OMB Official Source: National Journal

33 Domestic Team Sec. of Energy Steven Chu-Current Energy Secretary Former Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND) Former Governor Jennifer Granholm (D- MI) John Podesta-Center for American Progress Chair Sec. of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius- Current HHS Secretary Lois Quam-Health Official at State Dept Source: National Journal

34 Domestic Team Sec. of Interior Ken Salazar-Current Interior Secretary Governor Christine Gregoire (D-WA) John Berry-Director of Personnel Management Sec. of Housing and Urban Development Shaun Donovan- Current HUD Secretary Carol Galante-Assistant HUD Secretary Source: National Journal

35 Domestic Team Sec. of Labor Hilda Solis-Current Labor Secretary Seth Harris-Deputy Labor Secretary Maria Echaveste- Former Deputy White House Chief of Staff Arlene Holt Baker-VP of AFL-CIO Sec. of Agriculture Tom Vilsack-Current Ag. Secretary Former Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) Senator Kent Conrad (D-ND) Source: National Journal

36 Domestic Team Sec. of Transportation Antonio Villarigosa-LA Mayor Former Governor Ed Rendell (D-PA) Michael Bloomberg- NYC Mayor Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-OH) Sec. of Education Arne Duncan-Current Secretary of Education Source: National Journal

37 Domestic Team Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lisa Jackson-Current EPA Administrator Bob Perciasepe-Deputy EPA Administrator Bradley Campbell-NJ Environmental Protection Department Commissioner Heather Zichal-White House climate official Mary Nichols-Chair of CA Air Resources Board Source: National Journal

38 Supreme Court Merrick Garland- Appeals Judge: DC Circuit Former Governor Jennifer Granholm (D- MI) Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) Kamala Harris-CA Attorney General Source: National Journal

39 Battle for Congress

40 Senate

41 The Senate: 112 th Congress At the time of the election, Democrats held 53 seats (including 2 Independents). Republicans held 47 seats and needed 4 to take the majority Party Breakdown (112 th ) Democrats Republicans Independents

42 The Senate: 113 th Congress D+2 When the 113 th Congress convenes in January, the Senate will be comprised of 55 Democrats (including 2 Independents ) and 45 Republicans. Party Breakdown (113 th ) Democrats Republicans Independents

43 Senate: Winners and Losers

44 Senate Election Summary Democratic Gains Indiana Maine Massachusetts Republican Gains Nebraska

45 Senate Race: Indiana-Democratic Gain Incumbent (Defeated): Richard Lugar (R) Winning Candidate: Joe Donnelly (D) Losing Candidate: Richard Mourdock (R) 2008 Presidential: Obama 49.95% 2012 Presidential: Romney 54.3% Rep. Joe Donnelly Treasurer Richard Mourdock Photo Credit: Indy Star

46 Senate Race: Massachusetts-Democratic Gain Incumbent: Scott Brown (R) Winning Candidate: Elizabeth Warren (D) Losing Candidate: Scott Brown (R) 2008 Presidential: Obama 61.80% 2012 Presidential: Obama 60.8% Sen. Scott Brown Professor Elizabeth Warren Photo Credit: Politico

47 Senate Race: Maine-Independent/Dem Gain Incumbent (Retiring ): Olympia Snowe (R) Winning Candidate: Angus King (I) Losing Candidate: Cynthia Dill (D) Losing Candidate: Charles Summers (R) Independent Gain (Likely to Caucus with Democrats) 2008 Presidential: Obama 57.71% 2012 Presidential: Obama 56.0% ME Sec. of State Charlie Summers State Senator Cynthia Dill Fmr. Gov. Angus King Photo Credit: Kennebec Journal

48 Senate Race: Nebraska-Republican Gain Incumbent (Retiring ): Ben Nelson (D) Losing Candidate: Bob Kerrey (D) Winning Candidate: Deb Fischer (R) 2008 Presidential: McCain 53.1% 2012 Presidential: Romney 60.5% Fmr. Sen. Bob Kerrey NE State Sen. Deb Fischer Photo Credit: KNEB Radio

49 Senate Race: North Dakota Incumbent (Retiring ): Kent Conrad (D) Winning Candidate: Heidi Heitkamp (D) Losing Candidates: Rick Berg (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: McCain 53.25% 2012 Presidential: Romney 58.7% Fmr. ND Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp Rep. Rick Berg Photo Credit: Minnesota Public Radio

50 Senate Race: Montana Incumbent: Jon Tester (D) Winning Candidate: Jon Tester (D) Losing Candidate: Denny Rehberg (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: McCain 49.51% 2012 Presidential: Romney 55.3% Sen. Jon Tester Rep. Denny Rehberg Photo Credit: Flathead Beacon

51 Senate Race: Virginia Incumbent (Retiring): Jim Webb (D) Winning Candidate: Tim Kaine (D) Losing Candidate: George Allen (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 52.63% 2012 Presidential: Obama 50.8% Fmr Gov. Tim Kaine Fmr. Sen./Gov. George Allen Photo Credit: Politico

52 Senate Race: Wisconsin Incumbent (Retiring ): Herb Kohl (D) Winning Candidate: Tammy Baldwin (D) Losing Candidate: Tommy Thompson (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 56.22% 2012 Presidential: Obama 52.8% Rep. Tammy Baldwin Fmr. Gov. Tommy Thompson Photo Credit: KSTP News

53 Senate Race: Nevada Incumbent: Dean Heller (R) Winning Candidate: Dean Heller (R) Losing Candidate: Shelley Berkley (D) Republican Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 55.15% 2012 Presidential: Obama 52.3% Sen. Dean Heller Rep. Shelley Berkley Photo Credit: TPM

54 Senate Race: Florida Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D) Winning Candidate: Bill Nelson (D) Losing Candidate: Connie Mack (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 51.03% 2012 Presidential: Obama 50.0% Sen. Bill Nelson Rep. Connie Mack Photo Credit: Broward-Palm Beach Beach News Times

55 Senate Race: Ohio Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (D) Winning Candidate: Sherrod Brown (D) Losing Candidate: Josh Mandel (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 51.50% 2012 Presidential: Obama 50.1% Sen. Sherrod Brown OH Treasurer Josh Mandel Photo Credit: Columbus Dispatch

56 Senate Race: Pennsylvania Incumbent: Bob Casey (D) Winning Candidate: Bob Casey (D) Losing Candidate: Tom Smith (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 54.47% 2012 Presidential: Obama 52.0% Mr. Tom Smith Sen. Bob Casey Photo Credit: Politics PA

57 Senate Race: Connecticut Incumbent (Retiring ): Joe Lieberman (I) Winning Candidate: Chris Murphy (D) Losing Candidate: Linda McMahon (R) Democratic Hold (Lieberman caucused with Democrats) 2008 Presidential: Obama 61.23% 2012 Presidential: Kerry 58.4% Rep. Chris Murphy Mrs. Linda McMahon Photo Credit: Westport Patch

58 Senate Race: Missouri Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D) Winning Candidate: Claire McCaskill (D) Losing Candidate: Todd Akin (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: McCain 56.18% 2012 Presidential: Romney 53.9% Sen. Claire McCaskill Rep. Todd Akin Photo Credit: Politico

59 Senate Race: Arizona Incumbent (Retiring): Jon Kyl (R) Winning Candidate: Jeff Flake (R) Losing Candidate: Richard Carmona (D) Republican Hold 2008 Presidential: McCain 53.60% 2012 Presidential: Romney 54.2% Fmr. Surgeon General Richard Carmona Rep. Jeff Flake Photo Credit: ABC News

60 Senate Race: Michigan Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D) Winning Candidate: Debbie Stabenow (D) Losing Candidate: Pete Hoekstra (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 57.43% 2012 Presidential: Obama 54.3% Sen. Debbie Stabenow Fmr. Rep. Pete Hoekstra Photo Credit: Detroit Free Press

61 Senate Race: New Mexico Incumbent (Retiring ): Jeff Bingaman (D) Winning Candidate: Martin Heinrich (R) Losing Candidate: Heather Wilson (D) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 56.91% 2012 Presidential: Obama 54.2% Fmr. Rep. Heather Wilson Rep. Martin Heinrich Photo Credit: NMPolitics.net

62 Senate Race: Hawaii Incumbent (Retiring ): Daniel Akaka (D) Winning Candidate: Mazie Hirono (D) Losing Candidate: Linda Lingle (R) Democratic Hold 2008 Presidential: Obama 71.85% 2012 Presidential: Obama 70.6% Rep. Mazie Hirono Fmr. Gov. Linda Lingle Photo Credit: Politico

63 Lame Duck Wild Cards Defeated Retiring Scott Brown (R-MA) Jon Kyl (R-AZ) Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) Daniel Akaka (D-HI) Richard Lugar (R-IN) Olympia Snowe (R-ME) Ben Nelson (D-NE) Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) Kent Conrad (D-ND) Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) Jim Webb (D-VA) Herb Kohl (D-WI

64 Senate Democratic Leadership Senate President Pro Tempore: Daniel Inouye (HI) Democratic Floor Leader: Harry Reid (NV) Democratic Whip: Dick Durbin (IL) Conference Vice Chair and Democratic Policy and Communications Center Chair: Chuck Schumer (NY) Democratic Policy and Communications Center Vice Chair: Debbie Stabenow (MI) Steering and Outreach Committee Chair: Mark Begich (AK) Conference Secretary: Patty Murray (WA) Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair: Michael Bennett (CO), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) *DSCC Chair is yet to be named. Thus, italics indicate possible contender; incumbents are unformatted

65 Senate Republican Leadership Republican Floor Leader: Mitch McConnell (KY) Republican Whip: John Cornyn (TX) Conference Chair: John Thune (SD) Conference Vice Chair: Roy Blunt (MO) Republican Policy Committee Chair: John Barrasso (WY) National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair: Jerry Moran (KS)

66 Prospective Committee Chairs for 113 th Congress

67 Small Business Veterans Affairs Sherrod Brown (OH)/Bernie Sanders (VT) Agriculture Debbie Stabenow (MI) Appropriations Daniel Inouye (HI) Armed Services Mary Landrieu Carl Levin (LA) (MI) Rules and Administration Chuck Schumer Judiciary Patrick Leahy (VT) (NY) Homeland Security and Gov. Affairs Tom Carper (DE) Committee Chairmen (Democrats) Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Tim Johnson (SD Budget Patty Murray (WA) Commerce, Science, and Transportation Jay Rockefeller (WV) Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Energy Ron Wyden Tom Harkin (OR) (IA) Foreign Relations John Kerry* (MA) Finance Max Baucus (MT) Environment and Public Works Barbara Boxer (CA) *If John Kerry becomes Secretary of State, it sets up a domino effect that could see several chairmen shuffle committees.

68 Prospective Ranking Members for 113 th Congress

69 Agriculture Veterans Affairs Johnny Isakson (GA) Pat Roberts (KS)/Thad Cochran (MS) Appropriations Richard Shelby (AL) Small Business Jim Risch (ID)/Michael Enzi (WY) Armed Services James Inhofe (OK) Rules and Administration Thad Cochran (MS) /Roy Blunt (MO) Judiciary Chuck Grassley (IA) Homeland Security and Gov. Affairs Tom Coburn (OK) Committee Ranking Member (Republicans) Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Mike Crapo (ID) Budget Jeff Sessions (AL)/Michael Enzi (WY) Commerce, Science, and Transportation Jim DeMint (SC) Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Energy Lisa Murkowski Lamar Alexander (AK) (TN) Foreign Relations Bob Corker (TN) Finance Orrin Hatch (UT) Environment and Public Works David Vitter (LA)

70 House

71 Generic Ballot Date Democrats Republicans Advantage Outcome Nov 5, % 47.5% Republicans +.2 Republicans retain majority in House, Democrats in Senate Oct 31, % 50.7% Republicans +9.4 Republicans gain House, Democrats retain Senate Nov 2, % 38.6% Democrats +9 Nov 5, % 40.6% Democrats Nov 1, % 45.4% Tie Democrats expand majorities in both chambers Democrats gain control of both chambers Republicans retain control of both chambers Source: Real Clear Politics Average

72 The House: 112 th Congress At the time of the election, Republicans held 240 seats. Democrats hold 190 seats and needed 28 to take the majority. There are five vacancies Vacancies to be filled on Election Day: CA-18, KY-4, MI-11, NJ-10, and WA-1 Party Breakdown (112 th ) Democrats Republicans Vacancies

73 The House: 113 th Congress Gains for Ds When the 113 th Congress convenes in January, the House will be comprised of 200 Democrats and 234 Republicans. There will be a vacancy at the start of the 113 th Congress following the resignation of Democrat Jesse Jackson Jr. (IL-2) Party Breakdown (113 th ) Democrats Republicans Vacancy

74 Lame Duck Wild Cards Defeated 23 incumbents were defeated on Election Day (10D, 13R.)* Some well known incumbents who were defeated include: Joe Baca (CA-D), Roscoe Bartlett (MD-R), Howard Berman (CA-D), Mary Bono Mack (CA-R), and Leonard Boswell (IA-D) Retiring 25 incumbents will retire after the 112th Congress (14D, 11R) Some well known incumbents who are retiring include: Barney Frank (MA-D), Jerry Lewis (CA-R), Ron Paul (TX-R), Lynn Woolsey (CA-D), Edolphus Towns (NY-D), and Dan Burton (IN-R) *Several House races are yet to be called, leaving the potential for more defeated incumbents

75 House Republican Leadership Speaker of the House: John Boehner (OH-8) Republican Floor Leader: Eric Cantor (VA-7) Republican Whip: Kevin McCarthy (CA-7) Conference Chair: Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (WA-5) Conference Vice Chair: Lynn Jenkins (KS-2) Conference Secretary: Virginia Foxx (NC-5) Republican Policy Committee Chair: James Lankford (OK-5) National Republican Congressional Committee Chair: Greg Walden (OR-2)

76 House Democratic Leadership Democratic Floor Leader: Nancy Pelosi (CA-8) Democratic Whip: Steny Hoyer(MD-5) Assistant Democratic Leader: James Clyburn (SC-6) Democratic Caucus Chair: Xavier Bacerra (CA-31) Democratic Caucus Vice Chair: Rep. Joe Crowley (NY-14) Democratic Steering and Policy Committee Co- Chairs: Rosa DeLauro (CT-3-Steering), George Miller (CA-7-Policy) Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair: Steve Israel (NY-3)

77 Committee Chairs for 113 th Congress

78 Veterans Affairs Jeff Miller (FL-1) Ways and Means Dave Camp (MI-4) Agriculture Frank Lucas (OK-3) Appropriations Hal Rogers (KY-5) Armed Services Buck McKeon (CA-25) Transportation Bill Shuster (PA-9) Budget Paul Ryan (WI-1) Small Business Sam Graves (MO-6) Science, Space, and Technology Lamar Smith (TX-21) Rules Pete Sessions (TX-32) House Committee Chairmen (Republicans) Education and Workforce John Kline (MN-2) Energy and Commerce Fred Upton (MI-6) Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (TX-5) Oversight and Gov. Reform Darrell Issa (CA-49) Natural Resources Doc Hastings (WA-4) Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (VA-6) House Administration Phil Gingrey (GA-11) Homeland Security Mike McCaul (TX-10) Foreign Affairs Ed Royce (CA-40) *

79 Prospective Ranking Members for 113 th Congress

80 Agriculture Veterans Affairs Corrine Brown (FL-3) Ways and Means Sander Levin (MI-12) Collin Peterson (MN-7) Appropriations Nita Lowry (NY-18) Armed Services Adam Smith (WA-9) Transportation Nick Rahall (WV-3) Budget Chris Van Hollen (MD-8) Small Business Nydia Velázquez (NY-12) Science, Space, and Technology Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30) Rules Louise Slaughter (NY-28) Committee Ranking Members (Democrats) Education and Workforce George Miller (CA-7) Energy and Commerce Henry Waxman (CA-30) Financial Services Maxine Waters (CA-35) Oversight and Gov. Reform Elijah Cummings (MD-7) Natural Resources Ed Markey (MA-7) Judiciary John Conyers (MI-14) House Administration Bob Brady (PA-1) Homeland Security Bennie Thompson (MS-2) Foreign Affairs Eliot Engel (NY-17)

81 The Lame Duck

82 Fiscal Cliff Items Expiration of the Bush tax cuts Expiration of the payroll tax cut Expiration of unemployment insurance benefits Expiration of the doc fix Sequestration of $1.2 trillion in government spending ($984 billion in reductions evenly split between defense and non-defense plus $216 billion in debt services savings) The likely need to increase the current debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion in early 2013 may also affect the debate over other fiscal cliff issues.

83 What The President and Democrats Want: Raise Revenue Deficit and Sequestration o Create $4.4 trillion in savings over the next ten years, $1.6 trillion from revenue increases o Stave off automatic cuts to entitlement programs and Defense spending Taxes o Extension of Bush Tax Cuts for middle and lower income earners. o Expiration of Bush Tax Cuts for upper income earners. o Open to closing loopholes and capping deductions on upper income earners. Entitlements o Resist reforms to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid that changes benefits and shifts costs to states.

84 What Republicans Want: Entitlement Reform Deficit and Sequestration o Reduce spending o Prevent automatic cuts to Defense spending Taxes o Extension of Bush Tax Cuts for all income levels o Closing loopholes and capping deductions on upper income earners Entitlements o Reform Medicare benefits structure through a premium support program o Raising Medicare eligibility age o Expanding means-testing for wealthier seniors o Changing how inflation is calculated for Social Security benefits

85 Current Proposals White House Plan o Reduce deficit by $4.4 trillion over 10 years, $1.6 from increased revenue Bowles-Simpson Plan o Reduce deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) Plan o Reduce deficit by $4.5 trillion over 10 years, $1 trillion from increased revenues ($750 million from capping deductions and closing loopholes) Possible Gang of Eight Plan

86 Alternatives To The President s Plan President Obama Seeks to raise revenues of $1.6 trillion over ten years: Republican Congressional leaders offered $800 billion in his talks with them last year. This year, Republicans have yet to offer a figure. Here are revenues raised by different policies. Figures in billions of dollars. Sources: Treasury Department; Tax Policy Center; Joint Committee on Taxation Photo Credit: New York Times

87 Key Fiscal Cliff Players Democrats President Obama Vice President Biden Senate Majority Leader Reid House Minority Leader Pelosi Incoming Senate Budget Chairwoman Murray Senate Finance Chairman Baucus Secretary Geithner Republicans Speaker Boehner House Majority Leader Cantor Senator Minority Leader McConnell House Budget Chairman Ryan House Ways and Means Chairman Camp Senate Finance Ranking Member Hatch

88 The Gang of Eight Members* Mark Warner (D-VA) Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) Dick Durbin (D-IL) Kent Conrad (D-ND) Michael Bennett (D-CO) Mike Crapo (R-ID) Tom Coburn (R-OK) Mike Johanns (R-NE)

89 Fiscal Cliff Scenarios Source: Examiner

90 3 Possible Fiscal Cliff Scenarios 1. Go off the fiscal cliff: Less likely result because of the highly negative impact on the economy and on both political parties. 2. Comprehensive Grand Bargain on tax and entitlement reform: Unlikely result due to complexity of the negotiations and the brief lame duck period. 3. Short-term punt with pre-agreement on Grand Bargain: Likely result. Short-term punt that sets forth process, timetable, parameters, and possible consequence for failing to achieve grand bargain. Pre-agreement could include targets for revenue increases and entitlement cuts without specifying nature of the revenue or the cuts. Down payment to avoid cliff: new revenue coupled with some spending or entitlement cuts.

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