Alaska Legislative Digest

Transcription

1 Bradners Alaska Legislative Digest - Special Commentary Alaska Legislative Digest & Alaska Economic Report, Alaska s oldest public policy reports Republican gubernatorial primary: Treadwell v. Dunleavy - Analysis by Mike Bradner - Digest publisher/editor The key race in the Alaska August 21st primary is the governors race on the Republican ballot. In fact the outcome of this contest matters a lot! This is the gubernatorial primary race between former Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell and former State Sen. Mike Dunleavy, who comes from the Mat-Su Valley. The outcome of this race sets the philosophical extremes in the November general election for governor. One outcome pulls the general election discussion to the center. The other outcome stretches the debate to the far right. Democrat Mark Begich is on the left, Gov. Bill Walker, in the middle, and the survivor of the Republican primary on the right. The question in the Republican primary choice is how far right? It s the Republican primary that sets the November stage Digest August 7, 2018 Former Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell: The more moderate of the GOP candidates is Mead Treadwell. We would call him a pragmatic conservative. What s that? Well, what we mean is Treadwell comes from business. He has a broad interest in development, and issues such as the gas pipeline and Alaska s place in the emerging circumpolar world. On social issues he is likely conservative but he is not imprisoned by ideology. Continued on next page On governing: Who can we envision best able to run the government and work with the Legislature - former Lt. Gov. Treadwell or former Sen. Dunleavy? Published by Tim and Mike Bradner (Bradner Policy Publications) akdigest@gmail.com Tim Bradner (907) Fax: (907) / Mike Bradner (907)

2 The GOP primary outcome Continued from previous page Mike Dunleavy is a conservative, and one substantially to the right. If he is the primary survivor, just being one of the three facing each other in November, he will pull the debate to the right, and his presence will also bring out a constituency much like Joe Miller did in the 2014 U.S. Senate race. Dunleavy also has little history with business and development issues. Dunleavy would bring ideology into the governor s race If Dunleavy is the Republican candidate on the ballot in November this would change the character of the governor s race, injecting conservative ideology, rather than degrees of conservative philosophy. The difference here is conservative philosophy operates within the framework of compromise. Ideology operates in a more confining and rigid framework. How did Dunleavy perform in the Legislature? Dunleavy has failed the leadership test during his years in the Legislature and also failed to show breadth in his range of interests. I suppose we re being hard on the former Senator. However, during his tenure in the Senate he rarely proposed ideas and solutions that we could see, nor did his colleagues grant him a leadership position. He sponsored few bills and never managed to pass a bill of which he was prime sponsor. Dunleavy fish tax.... Senator Dunleavy did introduce a tax bill, calling it a royalty, which would have imposed a 12.5 percent tax (royalty) on all seafood caught in the state. This tax bill, introduced in early 2016, never had a hearing or drew a cosponsor. In the Legislature he was prime sponsor of four bills and one resolution. Dunleavy bill proposed to pay an extra $666 million in dividends Of note, Dunleavy in 2017, while we were in the midst of our financial crisis, introduced a bill to pay a supplemental dividend (a second dividend) to all who had already received a dividend in The cost to the budget would have been would an additional $666 million. The bill died in the Senate Finance Committee. Page 2 - Continued on next page

3 Dunleavy s big issue: Public tax dollars for religious schools - Continued from previous page One measure of a candidate is his or her ability to network among others. However, there is not much to judge Dunleavy here because he sponsored few bills and he never attained a leadership position. Senator Dunleavy s one major policy effort was his proposal (SJR-9) to amend the Alaska Constitution to permit spending public funds for the benefit of private and religious schools. Our constitution is negatively very explicit in this regard. Article, Sec.1: No money shell be paid from public funds for the direct benefit of any religious or other private educational institution. Our constitution also reads: Schools... so established shall be free of sectarian control. In perspective, the problem surrounding SJR-9 wasn t the subject matter, but the process of how Sen. Dunleavy and the Senate leadership handled the issue. Constitutional amendments are generally held to a higher level of legislative and public inspection, requiring a two-thirds vote to pass and proceed on to a public vote. The sponsors of SJR 9 sought to avoid the public Sen. Dunleavy introduced SJR-9 on Feb. 13, which was referred to the Senate Education Committee. The next day, Sept 14, it was the subject of a hearing held jointly with the House Education Committee. Testimony was limited to invitation only, those invited being limited to a group brought from outside the state, all having links to think tanks and academics favorable to the issue. It was also assumed that those among this group helped draft the resolution. This might not have been so bad if the issue was then opened to further pubic hearing in the Education Committee. It wasn t. What happened was that the Senate leadership tried to move the bill without further hearing, and over the objection of Education Committee chair Sen. Gary Stevens. What Senate President Charlie Huggins was waive his referral of the bill to the Education Committee, which essentially pulled the bill from Steven s control Sept. 14. This was just two days after introduction. Of note, this was obviously an education bill that deserved major hearing by Steven s committee. Page 3 - Continued on next page

4 - Continued from previous page This action by the President of the Senate was considered to be a procedural motion by the leadership which caucus members are generally required to support. Note: The purpose of this requirement is to keep order. Nevertheless, this resulted in a major brouhaha on the Senate floor. This called attention to the issue and the obvious intent to try to fast-track the bill to the House. As often happens this little floor fight put the measure on watch and mounted opposition (blew the fast track strategy). We would also note that this is an example of what one Senator can do, meaning Sen. Stevens in this case, even though this measure was a priority of the leadership. Most likely Stevens, by his action, killed any chance for the measure to get the needed two-thirds vote. Odds are that Dunleavy will win the GOP primary race Despite Dunleavy s performance he is likely to prevail in the coming Republican primary. The money counts. He quit the Senate so he could legally raise money and organize his campaign. Note: This is similar to Gov. Sarah Palin resigning so she could raise money to pay legal bills with book deals. Given his past sponsorship of SJR-9 we have a question for Dunleavy If elected will he use his office to seek change the constitution to permit the use of public tax dollars to support private and religious schools? What we are also saying here is that Dunleavy may well get elected and that this creates a problem for Republicans. Can a Governor Dunleavy and the Legislature find common ground? Find common ground even if both Houses have a Republican leadership? Can the business and development interests in the state find common ground and agenda with Dunleavy? Page 4

5 Meanwhile back at the ranch, Democrats are having problems of their own. Democrats face a three-way race in November between the GOP candidate, Democrat Begich, and Independent Gov. Bill Walker. Most analysts say a three-way race is fatal to both Walker and Begich. Begich got into the governor s race late but after months of cat-and-mouse will he or won t he? He did jump in, of course, but if there was expected to be an enthusiastic shift of support from Walker to Begich it didn t happen. The result is a substantial split among Democrats. It is older Democrats, we hear, that are sticking with Walker. There is also a movement to write Walker in on the primary election ballot as a kind of protest. In addition, there has also been an attempt to broker a deal between Walker and Begich. This was to be based on a series of polls with the candidate with the lowest numbers getting out of the race. We understand this was dead on arrival with the Walker camp. There is also concern about Begich advocating constitutionalizing the Permanent Fund dividend, and other Fund allocations. (On his web page). Our note: Meddling with the constitution is serious business. - More on this later. On governing both Walker and Begich pass muster In terms of being able to govern both Begich and Walker both of these candidates get a pass. There is a difference in philosophy, with Begich on the left and Walker more middle of the road. Walker, however, has passed the big test of being willing to stand up and say the T word. In terms of who can work with the Legislature most depends on the makeup of the House and Senate. The Senate will likely have a substantial Republican majority with the key question being who organizes. The House organization is a toss up, but either way, Republican or Democrat, the margin in the House will be slim. - More on this later. Page 5

6 What others are telling us.... By Tim Bradner-Digest Co-Editor/Publisher We ve talked with several political insiders with business connections and while there s no fundamental disagreement with our own analysis there are some interesting perspectives. All we talked with say pre-primary polls made public can t be trusted, and that credible independent poll results will appear during the general election. Still, there s no disagreement with current polls showing Dunleavy leading Treadwell. There s also no disagreement that a three-way race of Begich, Walker and Dunleavy favors Dunleavy, but that the race is highly volatile and uncertain. On business issues, Treadwell is more a known quantity but while Dunleavy s views are unknown he is considered an open book and at least he isn t anti-business or anti-industry, which many in the business community consider Walker to be based on his past positions. This has cost Walker support from business, we re told. If he were to win, we re told Dunleavy would likely wind up supporting the Alaska LNG Project but only after a careful review and consultations with North Slope producers among others. Begich would also support Alaska LNG. We re told by insiders that Dunleavy has come to understand, secretly, that his hike-the-dividend and cut-the-budget ideas won t work, and that he has no other budget plan, for now. If he were elected he would have to make government function but would still oppose taxes. He would realize big whacks of the budget won t work. This would increase pressure for higher draws from Permanent Fund earnings. In the end the Legislature will have to formulate budget policy and big vetoes by Dunleavy of basic services, if they happen, would be overridden. On social issues, Dunleavy would still hold his conservative views, we ve told. Page 6

7 Who really knows how anyone is doing.... Begich is said to be gaining support and Walker holding even, but who really knows? Some influential legislators support Begich, interestingly, because of a perception that, he can make a deal. What this means is that these legislators don t believe they can make deals with Walker, a reflection of Walker s inexperience in government. Begich, on the other hand, has held executive (Anchorage mayor) and legislative positions (Anchorage assembly; U.S. Senate) and better understands how executive/legislative cooperation really works, these legislators believe. What hurts Walker is his veto of part of the PFD appropriation and support a cap on the dividend. This anger spills over to other issues like crime. Once you re mad about one thing, you get angry over several other things, one person told us. But then.... All this being said, however, it looks like everyone except Walker is letting the Permanent Fund dividend wag their tail, government services and needs coming second to paying the dividend. Further, this election and issues appear to be setting the table for the dividend to prevail over normal constitutional as most policymakers see them. We are entering uncharted politics! A teacher some years ago told me she asked her middle school students what the purpose of government was. She was shocked when the answer was, to pay my Permanent Fund dividend. Subscription services.... akdigest@gmail.com Tim Bradner (907) Mike Bradner (907) Copyright - Permissions to reprint and forward Tim Bradner - timbradner@pobox.alaska.net - (907) Page 7