Road Safety Modeling Using a Safety Analysis Chain: A Theoretical Discussion
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1 AMSI Workshop on Mathematics of Transportation Networks 2013, Melbourne Road Safety Modeling Using a Safety Analysis Chain: A Theoretical Discussion Amir Sobhani, Monash University civil.eng.monash.edu.au/its
2 Contents Research Background Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Quantifying Components of the SACH Future Research Conclusion 2
3 Research Background Perspective Method Input Variable Output Variable Transportation Statistical Analysis Micro Simulation Road and Environmental Number and Severity of Conflicts and Crashes Crash Analysis Statistical Analysis Newtonian Mechanics Crash Simulation Crash Crash severity Medical Statistical Analysis Human Body Crash Severity Psychological Experiments and Studies to Understand Human Behaviour N/A N/A 3
4 Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Exposure Crash risk per exposure Kinetic energy per crash Transfer of kinetic energy to pedestrian Human tolerance KEM (Corben et al., 2004) 4
5 Contents Research Background Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Quantifying Components of the SACH Future Research Conclusion 5
6 Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Exposure Crash Risk Per Exposure Kinetic Energy Per Crash 6
7 SACH(Link of Events) Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle 7
8 SACH(Variables) Ø Conflict Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Maneuvers Ø Speed Before Conflict Ø Acceleration/Dec Ø Vehicles Position Ø Crash Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Impact Angle Ø Speed Before Crash Ø Impact Type Ø Impact Location Ø Road Layout Ø Flow Ø Density Ø Speed Ø Headway Ø Control Char. Ø Conflict Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Maneuvers Ø Speed Ø Acceleration/Dec Ø Position Ø Crash Severity Ø Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) Ø Injury Severity Score (ISS) Ø Kinetic Energy Ø Delta V Ø EBS 8
9 Contents Research Background Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Quantifying Components of the SACH Future Research Conclusion 9
10 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 1) Step 1: Modelling The Link Between Traffic and Conflict and Severe Conflict Ø Researchers have developed several conflict techniques to find out the number and severity of conflicts using micro-simulation model (Hyden 1987; Hyden 1996; Archer 2005). Ø After generating individual vehicle movement, the conflicts could be determined using probabilistic human behaviour models such as lane changing, car following, gap acceptance and stop-or-go decision at the onset of amber (Archer 2005; Cunto and Saccomanno 2008; Archer and Young 2009). 10
11 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 2) Step 1: Modelling The Link Between Traffic and Conflict and Severe Conflict Step 2: Modelling The Link Between Crash and Severe Crash 11
12 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 2) Ø Crash Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Impact Angle Ø Speed Before Crash Ø Impact Type Ø Impact Location Ø Crash Severity Ø Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) Ø Injury Severity Score (ISS) Ø Kinetic Energy Ø Delta V Ø EBS Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle 12
13 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 2) POTENTIAL ENERGY Kine9c Energy of Vehicles (Pre- Crash) CHARACTERISTICS SEVERITY KE f (Crash Characteris9cs) s 1 (1) IMPACT / OCCUPANT CHARACTERISTICS INJURY SEVERITY ISS f (Impact Characteris9cs 2 Occupant Characteris9cs, and KE ) s (2) (1) f 1 is the mathema-cal model presen-ng the kinec-c energy transferred to the subject vehicle in crash according to crash characteris-cs (2) f 2 is the mathema-cal model presen-ng the ISS of the crash according to impact characteris-cs, kinec-c energy transferred to the subject vehicle and occupant characteris-cs. 13
14 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 2) CHARACTERISTICS (CC) V s = f (CC) D V s OF THE KE s = g ( f ( CC )) = f 1 ( CC ) KE = g ( D V s ) s KINECTIC ENERGY (KE s ) Crash Angle (PDOF) Bullet Bullet Subject Subject Before Crash ADer Crash Before Crash ADer Crash a a b a mb a a sinαb sinαb b sin( PDOF ) sin( PDOF ) Δ Vs = vs vs = [ vb(cos αb + ) vb( + cos( PDOF) )] a a a a m sinα tanα sinα tanα s s s s s 14
15 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) Step 1: Modelling The Link Between Traffic and Conflict and Severe Conflict Step 2: Modelling The Link Between Crash and Severe Crash Step 3: Modelling The Link Between Severe Conflict and Crash 15
16 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) of Conflicts Driver Behaviour in Conflict of Crash Step 2 Injury Severity Score 16
17 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) Levels of Driver Behaviour Modelling Tactical Level Control Level Control Level 17
18 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) Step 1: Modelling The Link Between Traffic and Conflict and Severe Conflict Step 2: Modelling The Link Between Crash and Severe Crash Step 3: Using an Alternative Model 18
19 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) Pre-Crash Phase Pre-Conflict Sub-Phase In-Conflict Sub-Phase Road & Traffic Conflict & Driver Reaction In-Crash Phase Crash Crash-Outcome Phase Crash Severity 19
20 Quantifying SACH (Step 3) Vehicles Involved In a Conflict CHARACTERISTICS, DRIVER REACTION IN EXPECTED KINETIC ENERGY KE s f 1 (Conflict, Driver Reaction in Conflict) EXPECTED IMPACT CHARACTERISTICS EXPECTED INJURY SEVERITY ISS f 2 (Expected Impact, and KE s ) 20
21 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) CHARACTERISTICS (CC) DRIVER REACTION IN (DR) V s OF THE KINETIC ENERGY (KE s ) 1 KE m V 2 2 s = s Δ s 1 KEs = ms f3( CC, DR)
22 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 4) Step 1: Modelling The Link Between Traffic and Conflict and Severe Conflict Step 2: Modelling The Link Between Crash and Severe Crash Step 3: Using an Alternative Model Step 4: Road Safety Index 22
23 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 4) COMPONENT 1: Micro-Simulation Model OUTPUTS: Number of Conflicts Severity of Conflicts of Conflicts INPUT: Road, Environment and Traffic COMPONENT 2: Severity Model (Three Models) Driver Reaction Model OUTPUT: Driver Reaction Before Crash V Model OUTPUT: V Kinetic Energy ISS Model OUTPUT: Injury Severity Score COMPONENT 3: Average Number of Crashes OUTPUT: Average Number of Crashes Road Safety Index 23
24 Road Safety Index n con RSI = ( ISS)/ ncon n cr / µ i= 1 24
25 DATA Model Calibration Data Validation/Verification SCATS data Micro-Simulation Model SCATS data Recorded Video Recorded Video Police Data ANCIS Database Driver Reaction Model ANCIS Database NASS Database V Model ANCIS Database ANCIS Database NASS Database ISS Model ANCIS Database ANCIS Database NASS Database 25
26 Contents Research Background Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Quantifying Components of the SACH Future Research Conclusion 26
27 Future Research Ø Road Layout Ø Flow Ø Density Ø Speed Ø Headway Ø Control Char. Ø Conflict Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Maneuvers Ø Speed Before Conflict Ø Acceleration/Dec Ø Vehicles Position Ø Conflict Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Maneuvers Ø Speed Ø Acceleration/Dec Ø Position Ø Crash Type Ø Vehicles Involved Ø Impact Angle Ø Speed Before Crash Ø Impact Type Ø Impact Location Ø Crash Severity Ø Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) Ø Injury Severity Score (ISS) Ø Kinetic Energy Ø Delta V Ø EBS Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle Ø Human Ø Road Ø Vehicle 27
28 Contents Research Background Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) Quantifying Components of the SACH Future Research Conclusion 28
29 Conclusion A Safety Analysis Chain (SACH) has been introduced as a basis for assessing safety performance of roads. A method has been outlined to quantify the components of the SACH through integrating the preceding safety modelling perspectives. The proposed theoretical framework proposed takes an important step towards the evaluation of the safety performance of roads. The SACH framework is a key for future research in road safety modelling since it provides a general overview of the main components of road safety modelling. 29
30 Questions 30
31 Quantifying Components of the SACH (Step 3) 31
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