Public Opinion and Political Action

Transcription

1 Public Opinion and Political Action 6 Jason Reed/Reuters Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

2 The American People 6.1 Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

3 The Immigrant Society 6.1 A nation of nations 1 million legal immigrants/year 500,000 illegal immigrants/year 11% of residents foreign-born Waves of immigration Northwest Europe (English, Irish, Scottish, Germans, Scandinavians) Southern and Eastern Europe (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians) Hispanics (Cuba, Central America, Mexico) Asians (Vietnam, Korea, the Philippines, India) Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

4 The Immigrant Society 6.1 Restrictions on immigration Open door policy Criminals, prostitutes, lunatics, diseased (1875) Chinese Exclusion Act (1882) Johnson-Reid Immigration Act (1924) Hart-Celler Immigration and Nationality Act (1965) Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

5 The American Melting Pot 6.1 Minority majority Hispanic population growing rapidly Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

6 FIGURE 6.1 The coming minority majority 6.1 Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

7 The American Melting Pot 6.1 Reluctant immigrants 17% of population 27% still live in poverty Political power increasing Simpson-Mazzoli Act (1986) Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

8 Border fence 6.1 Matt York/AP Images Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

9 The American Melting Pot Political culture and assimilation 6.1 Courtesy of Marty Wattenberg Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

10 The Regional Shift 6.1 Northeast most populous West and South growing since WWII Sun Belt migration Arizona, Texas, Florida Political power of these areas increasing Reapportionment Once each decade, after census Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

11 The Graying of America 6.1 Over-65 fastest growing age group People living longer Fertility rate lower Implications for Social Security Ratio changing Politically-sensitive Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

12 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing? 6.1 a. From Northeast to Southwest b. From Northwest to Southeast c. From Southwest to Northeast d. From Midwest to Northeast Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

13 6.1 What kind of regional population shift is America experiencing? 6.1 a. From Northeast to Southwest b. From Northwest to Southeast c. From Southwest to Northeast d. From Midwest to Northeast Copyright 2016, 2014, 2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved

14 How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization 6.2 The Process of Political Socialization Political Learning over a Lifetime

15 Political Socialization Process through which underlying political beliefs and values are formed Feelings about economy, government, military

16 Agents of Socialization Social institutions that help shape individuals basic political beliefs and values. Families Social groups Education Prevailing political conditions

17 The Process of Political Socialization 6.2 The Family Central role Time and emotional commitment The Mass Media The new parents (and teachers) Age gap in following politics School Forming civic virtue

18 Political Learning over a Lifetime 6.2 Increasing participation with age Party identification strengthens Political behaviour is learned

19 FIGURE 6.2 Turnout increases with age 6.2

20 What does this polling suggest?

21 What does this polling suggest?

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24 Study - Pew Research Center Guarantee Food and Shelter Whites Blacks Help the Needy Whites Blacks Hispanics 54% believe education is important to advance in society 60% believe immigration is good for America Non-Latinos 62% 80% 55% 72% Believe immigration is a threat to America 60%

25 What does this polling suggest?

26 6.2 What is the most important agent of political socialization in the U.S.? 6.2 a. Government b. Family c. School d. Profession

27 6.2 What is the most important agent of political socialization in the U.S.? 6.2 a. Government b. Family c. School d. Profession

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29 Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information 6.3 How Polls Are Conducted The Role of Polls in American Democracy What Polls Reveal About Americans' Political Information The Decline of Trust in Government

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31 How Polls Are Conducted 6.3 Sample Random sample Sampling error Random digit dialing Cell phones Internet polling

32 Public opinion polls - Accurate snapshots of public sentiment at given time Reasonably good predictors of election outcomes Poor construction and mistaken interpretations of polls can misrepresent public opinion: poor sampling question wording and ordering

33 Random Digit Dialing National samples Technique Computerized generator produces list of as many 10 digit numbers as the pollster deems necessary

34 Selection Bias 1936 Straw Poll Same Question/Large Pop. Literary Digest predicted Republican Alf Landon would defeat Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt. Used telephone directories and auto registration Only wealthy owned telephones and autos (Rep)

35 Nonresponse Bias Refuse to answer pollsters questions Using caller id or answering machines Growth of cell phone use do-not-call legislation Poor only have cell phones in some cases Middle and upper class individuals more likely to respond to surveys than workingclass Hasn t hurt national survey - yet

36 Survey Design Source of measurement error Wording of survey questions Poorly formatted questions Bad vocabulary Ambiguous questions Built-in bias

37 Push Polling Loaded questions about political candidates Get response sought by pollster Shape respondent s perception of candidate If you knew that Lamar Alexander had raised taxes six times in Tennessee, would you be more or less inclined to vote for him.

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39 The Roll of Polls in American Democracy 6.3 Polling as a tool for democracy: pros and cons Gauge opinion between elections Following rather than leading Pandering or shaping? Bandwagon effect Exit polls Affect election results Question wording

40 Exit Polls Chris Fitzgerald/Candidate Photos/The Image Works

41 What Polls Reveal About Americans' Political Information Americans are uninformed Jeffersonian faith in wisdom of common people unfounded Young people most uninformed Who is responsible for the ill-informed electorate? Is it the schools' fault? Is it the media's fault? Paradox of mass politics 6.3

42 FIGURE 6.3 Many Americans show little knowledge of world geography 6.3

43 The Decline of Trust in Government 6.3 The great slide Vietnam War Watergate Economy/hostage crisis Is public cynicism good? Negative effect on programs for poor

44 FIGURE 6.4 The Decline of trust in government,

45 6.3 What is the problem with exit polls? 6.3 a. They are usually inaccurate b. They don't poll every voter c. They influence election results d. None of the above

46 6.3 What is the problem with exit polls? 6.3 a. They are usually inaccurate b. They don't poll every voter c. They influence election results d. None of the above

47 Political Ideology

48 What Americans Value: Political Ideologies 6.4 Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? Do People Think in Ideological Terms?

49 Difficult Job for Party Leaders Democrats - More and more Liberal Republicans More and more Conservative Hard to find Conservative Democrats and almost impossible to find Liberal Republicans

50 TABLE 6.1 How to tell a liberal from a conservative 6.4

51 Liberal Political Ideology Support for political and social reform. Extensive government intervention in economy Expansion of federal services Efforts on behalf of poor, minorities, women Greater concern for consumers and environment Generally, support abortion rights, Gay rights, oppose religious expression in government Internationally, arms control, aid to poor nations, no military intervention. Dovish

52 Political Ideology Conservative Support social & economic status quo Large & powerful government a threat to citizens freedom Oppose expansion of government Oppose government intervention in business Oppose abortion, support school prayer Support use of military to intervene in other countries. Hawkish

53 Political Labels People - Describe themselves Liberal or Conservative Many individuals accept only part of one or the other of these labels Liberal on social issues Conservative on economic issues These Labels Poor guides for decision making

54 Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? 6.4 Conservatives dominate 38% conservative, 36% moderate and 23% liberal Younger people less conservative Minorities less conservative Wealthy more conservative Gender gap Religious more conservative

55 What does it mean to be a hawk or a dove? Believe in use of military might - Hawkish Conservative Believe in negotiations and peace - Dovish - Liberal

56 Do People Think in Ideological Terms? 6.4 Types of voters Ideologues Group benefits Nature of the times No issue content Ideology of limited importance Seen as threat to family

57 FIGURE 6.5 Changing attitudes toward gays and lesbians 6.4

58 6.4 Americans identify most with which political ideology? 6.4 a. Moderate b. Liberal c. Democrat d. Conservative

59 6.4 Americans identify most with which political ideology? 6.4 a. Moderate b. Liberal c. Democrat d. Conservative

60 How Americans Participate in Politics 6.5 Conventional Participation Protest as Participation Class, Inequality, and Participation

61 Conventional Participation 6.5 Conventional participation Voting Running for office Collecting signatures for a petition Unconventional participation Protesting Civil disobedience Violence

62 Protest as Participation 6.5 Drawing attention Protests attract the media Rare Civil disobedience Violence

63 Lunch counter sit-in 6.5 Bettmann/Corbis

64 Kent State 6.5 John Filo/Premium Archive/Getty Images

65 Class, Inequality, and 6.5 Participation Higher socio-economic status = higher participation rates Minorities vote at nearly equal levels What are the policy implications of lower political participation?

66 6.5 What is the most common form of political participation? 6.5 a. Voting b. Writing to elected officials c. Working on campaigns d. Protesting

67 6.5 What is the most common form of political participation? 6.5 a. Voting b. Writing to elected officials c. Working on campaigns d. Protesting

68 Understanding Public Opinion and Political Action 6.6 Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action

69 Public Attitudes Toward the 6.6 Scope of Government Should government do more or less? In peacetime, most Americans say "less" But public opinion is complex and inconsistent Ideological conservatives Operational liberals Policy gridlock

70 Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action 6.6 Representative democracy Decide who governs Is public fit to choose its leaders? Yes and no

71 6.6 Do a majority of Americans favor more or less government? 6.6 a. More b. Less c. About the same as we have currently d. It is unclear what the public wants

72 6.6 Do a majority of Americans favor more or less government? 6.6 a. More b. Less c. About the same as we have currently d. It is unclear what the public wants