Chapter Six: Public Opinion and Political Socialization

Transcription

1 Chapter Six: Public Opinion and Political Socialization

2 Learning Outcomes 1. Define public opinion, consensus, and divided opinion. 2. Discuss major sources of political socialization, including the family, schools, the media, and political events. 3. Identify the effects of various influences on voting behavior, including party identification, education, income, religion, race, and geography. Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 2

3 Learning Outcomes 4. Describe the characteristics of a scientific opinion poll, and list some of the problems pollsters face in obtaining accurate results. 5. Evaluate the impact of new technologies on opinion polling. 6. Consider the effect that public opinion may have on the political process. Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 3

4 Defining Public Opinion Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes action to express an opinion publicly. Consensus Divided opinion Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 4

5 Consensus vs. Divided Opinions Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 5

6 How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization Models of political socialization Family and the social environment Education system Peer group Opinion leaders Media Agenda setting Equals family influence Impact of new media Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 6

7 How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization The influence of political events Generational effect (cohort effect) Historical events Great Depression Watergate break-in September 11 terrorist attacks Reagan years and prosperity Political mood Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 7

8 How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization Party identification & demographic influences Education Economic status Religious influence: denomination Religious influence: commitment Race and ethnicity Hispanic diversity Gender Geographic region Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 8

9 How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 9

10 How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization Election-specific factors Perception of the candidates Often based on emotions rather than experience or policy Issue preferences Perceptions of the 2012 presidential candidates Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 10

11 Measuring Public Opinion The history of opinion polls 1800s: straw polls 1930s: modern, relatively accurate polling techniques George Gallup: Gallup poll Elmo Roper: Roper poll Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 11

12 Gallup Poll Accuracy Record Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 12

13 Measuring Public Opinion Sampling techniques The principle of randomness Statistical nature of polling Sampling error Difficulty of accuracy Weighting the sample House effects Most accurate at presidential level Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 13

14 Measuring Public Opinion Additional problems with polls Only snapshots of public opinions Poll questions Unscientific and fraudulent polls Push polls Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 14

15 Technology and Opinion Polls Advent of telephone polling Easier, less expensive, and safer than door-to-door polling Became new standard High nonresponse rate Cell phone proliferation has reduced poll accuracy Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 15

16 Technology and Opinion Polls Internet polling Many unscientific nonpolls on the Internet Not truly representative Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 16

17 Public Opinion and the Political Process Political culture and public opinion Set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and government Shared beliefs about important values: Liberty Equality Property Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 17

18 Public Opinion and the Political Process Political culture and support Americans generally trust political system to resolve political issues Political trust Political opinion about government Public has highest confidence in military Want government to solve most important problem Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 18

19 Political Satisfaction Trend Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 19

20 Confidence in Institutions Trend Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 20

21 Public Opinion and the Political Process Public opinion and policymaking Government somewhat responsive Setting limits on government action Limits of polling Framing Copyright 2014 Cengage Learning 21

22 Questions for Critical Thinking? If states passed legislation legalizing betting on elections, would individuals pay more attention to elections, politics and public opinion polls? 22

23 Questions for Critical Thinking? How has the Tea Party Movement gained momentum through public opinion? 23

24 Questions for Critical Thinking? What is the process of your own political socialization? What factors have been the most influential in your socialization? 24

25 Questions for Critical Thinking? Who should be responsible political socialization, especially if family is not active in socializing its youth? Is it the role of the media? The role of the educational system? Political leaders? 25

26 Questions for Critical Thinking? What political events will determine the generational effect of your time? 26

27 Questions for Critical Thinking? Why are young voters less likely to identify with a specific political party? Is there any relationship between cynicism experienced by baby boomers and their offspring registering as independents? 27

28 Questions for Critical Thinking? Due to its potential flawed outcomes, should the public truly trust public opinion polls? 28

29 Questions for Critical Thinking? What role did public opinion polls play in the 2012 presidential elections? 29

30 Questions for Critical Thinking? What role will technology likely play in future polling? 30

31 Questions for Critical Thinking? Why do Americans lack confidence in their government, and at the same time expect government to remedy the problems that plague society? 31