Friday Sunday, 7-9 October Thursday, 6 October Wednesday, 5 October Tuesday, 4 October Monday, 3 October

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1 Slovak news compiled from wire services, U.S. press, RFE/RL, and other sources University of Pittsburgh, PA Slovak Studies Program, 1417 CL MARTIN VOTRUBA S L O V A K N E W S Monday Sunday, 3-9 October 1994 Friday Sunday, 7-9 October Coalition Talks in Slovakia 2 Analysis: Preferences of the 74% Slovaks Not Voting for Mečiar 2 U.S. Government Comments on Slovak Elections 4 Thursday, 6 October Final Seat Assignment in Slovak Parliament 5 Who Voted for Whom 5 Women in Slovak Parliament Elected Sept. Oct A Slovak Blogger s Observation on Member of Parliament Brňák 6 Wednesday, 5 October Mečiar on Future Slovak Government 6 Analysis: Slovak Elections Bring Future into Question 6 Slovak President Addresses Council of Europe 9 Slovakia to Crack Down on Tax Cheats 10 Tuesday, 4 October President Kováč Asks Mečiar to Form Government 10 Mečiar s Party Calls on President Kováč to Resign 10 Future Government Important for Investors 11 Slovak and Foreign Newspaper Headlines, Quotes on Elections 12 Analysis: Mečiar Scores Big Victory in Slovak Elections 13 Slovak Cabinet Creates Agency to Fight Racism 15 Monday, 3 October Voters Back Ex-Premier in Slovakia 15 Discussions on New Slovak Government Begin 16 Russian Newspaper: Slovak Election Probably Good for Russia 16 Analysis: American Businesswoman Optimistic about Slovakia 17

2 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 2 Detailed Election Results: Mečiar Scores Decisive Victory 18 Mečiar Barred from Voting on First Day 19 Mečiar in Car Collision 19 The New York Times Book Prize to a Slovak-American 20 Mobil Book Award to Undeserving Year of the Frog 20 U.S., EU Irked by German Wish to Fit Slovakia, 5 Others in EU, NATO Life 21 Slovakia Defies Health Decline in Post-communist Europe 22 Members of Parliament Elected Sept. Oct Friday Sunday, 7-9 October 1994 COALITION TALKS IN SLOVAKIA Bratislava The first round of coalition talks between the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia and the Association of Workers of Slovakia (ZRS) 1 began on 7 October, TASR reported. ZRS Chairman Ján Ľupták said that because of his party s interest in the advancement and prosperity of Slovakia, ZRS would be glad to give tacit support to a coalition between the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), 2 the Slovak National Party (SNS), 3 the Party of the Democratic Left (SDĽ), 4 and possibly the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH). Also on 7 October, HZDS held its first round of talks with the Common Choice (SV) 5 coalition (of which the SDĽ is the largest member). Common Choice representatives said the negotiations signaled that agreement could be reached in many areas, and both sides said another meeting would take place shortly. SDĽ Chairman Peter Weiss, however, said his party is against removing President Michal Kováč and that it supports a stable constitutional system. Common Choice also began talks with the Hungarian Coalition 6 (MK) on 7 October. ANALYSIS: PREFERENCES OF THE 74% SLOVAKS NOT VOTING FOR MEČIAR By Martin Votruba, Slovak Studies Program, University of Pittsburgh A breakdown of the election results for the whole population over Združenie robotníkov Slovenska. 2 Hnutie za demokratické Slovensko. 3 Slovenská národná strana. 4 Strana demokratickej ľavice. 5 Spoločná voľba. 6 Maďarský koalícia Magyar Koalíció.

3 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 3 The tendency is to concentrate on who it is that votes for the most successful party and politician in Slovakia. The clichéd comments usually point out, with dismissive implications, that the two groups more likely to support Vladimír Mečiar and his HZDS are the less educated and the elderly. While this is borne out by opinion polls (which have been rather off the mark this time with regards to the actual results), the dismission is out of place the votes of the elderly and less educated count as much as everybody else s. Moreover, this correlation is merely higher than average, not overwhelming. Few commentators ponder the decisions of all those eligible voters who do not vote for Mečiar. The table below charts what the people over 18 decided to do in Slovakia on 30 September and 1 October. With the exception of DEÚS, KDH, and MK, the parties have little existence independent of its leaders. Eligible voters (24.3%) Did not vote (9.8%) Voted for leader Party Voted for a party with no or slim chances to reach Parliament 34.1% Subtotal of no and wasted votes 7.9% 7.7% 6.6% 6.5% 5.6% 4.1% 26.4% Reformed communist Peter Weiss s SDĽ Hungarian nationalist Miklós Duray s MK Conservative Catholic Ján Čarnogurský s KDH Ex-HZDS Jozef Moravčík s DEÚS 1 Neo-communist Ján Ľupták s ZRS Slovak nationalist Ján Slota s SNS Vladimír Mečiar s HZDS (99.9%) Sum total With regards to the Hungarian minority, this shows that the predictions about a higher turnout among that group were not confirmed. The percentage of the ethnically Hungarian Slovak citizens among all the eligible voters is about 11.5%. Only 67% of those people voted for Miklós Duray s Hungarian Coalition. In fact, if the Hungarians in Slovakia really voted for the Hungarian coalition only, their turnout was about 10% lower than the average for the whole country (the difference would be even greater if compared with just the non-hungarian citizens over 18). But that does not follow from the available results, 1 Democratic Union of Slovakia, Demokratická únia Slovenska.

4 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 4 some ethnic Hungarians may have voted for other parties (MK s main worry was that some Hungarians would vote for SDĽ). At the same time, this indicates a strong tunnel vision among the Hungarian ethnics when compared with the array of choices the non- Hungarian voters made. With regards to the frequent talk about the strongly polarized attitudes to Mečiar (few people are supposed to be neutral about him), the results suggest two possibilities: a. This assumption is false one-third of the population does not care enough to either vote at all or to vote for a party which has at least some chances to counterbalance Mečiar s party. b. A large number of the people who dislike Mečiar do not vote in a manner that would effectively reduce his influence in the Parliament and Slovakia. (This all holds only if it is true that Mečiar s supporters do go and vote for him.) If b) is true, it supports what foreign journalists started noting passive attitudes expressed by many people. That includes aspiring politicians, who make little effort to attract voters with the notable exception of HZDS, which profits from the difference. It is significant in this context that at the center of power, in Bratislava, the turnout was the lowest. The ex-communist parties benefit to a small degree from the curtailed party structures established at all levels under communism. 73.6% people did not vote for Mečiar and HZDS, but their massively dispersed decisions indicate that no other party campaigns in a manner that can attract a substantial percentage of the massive pool of non-mečiar voters to itself. M.V. U.S. GOVERNMENT COMMENTS ON SLOVAK ELECTIONS Washington Released for broadcast by the Voice of America, 7 October Announcer: Next, an editorial reflecting the views of the U.S. government. Slovakia recently held its first Parliamentary elections since becoming independent in The Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), led by former Prime Minister Vladimír Mečiar, won a plurality, with 35% of the vote. The former communists, led by the Party of the Democratic Left (SDĽ), won over 10% of the vote, the Hungarian coalition and the Christian Democrats each won 10% of the vote, the Democratic Union (DEÚS) 1 9%, the left-wing Association of Workers of Slovakia (ZRS) 7% and the rightist National Party (SNS) 5%. The parties are now holding negotiations on forming a new coalition government. Observers from the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe monitored the elections and declared them to be free and fair. The United States is pleased that the 1 Demokratická únia Slovenska.

5 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 5 democratic process functioned successfully and that voter turnout was so large. About 75% of eligible voters participated in the elections. The major parties have indicated publicly that they plan to seek full integration with Western institutions, including NATO and the European Union. Continued economic reform and privatization are critical to developing a prosperous market economy. The United States will do its part to help sustain the progress that has been made and looks forward to working with the democratically elected leaders of Slovakia. (VOA) Thursday, 6 October 1994 FINAL SEAT ASSIGNMENT IN SLOVAK PARLIAMENT Party or coalition Current seats Gain/Loss HZDS & RSS SV MK KDH 17-1 DEÚS 15-4 ZRS SNS 9 ±0 WHO VOTED FOR WHOM Typical voters, a poll by MVK SRo HZDS SV MK KDH DEÚS ZRS SNS Pensioners, laborers, over 45, basic education, villagers Farmers, professionals, government employees, higher education, 30-44, cities Farmers, over 60, basic education, villagers or over 60, higher education, pensioners, professionals, students 18-34, university education, students, professionals, experts, large cities 30-44, laborers, lower education, unemployed, smaller towns 18-29, high-school education, students, large cities

6 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 6 WOMEN IN SLOVAK PARLIAMENT ELECTED SEPT. OCT HZDS & RSS 13 21% SV 3 17% MK 1 6% KDH 1 6% DEÚS 1 7% ZRS 1 8% SNS 2 22% Total 22 15% A SLOVAK BLOGGER S OBSERVATION ON MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT BRŇÁK Peter Brňák from HZDS (for West Slovakia) is probably the second most successful politician in Slovakia (after Mečiar). In the 1990 elections he was elected to Parliament as a member of the Democratic Party (DS). He left the party during his term in office and founded the Slovak National-Democratic Movement (SNDH). 1 In the 1992 elections he was elected to Parliament on the Slovak National Party (SNS) ticket as an independent candidate. In the 1994 elections he was elected on the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) ticket. Wednesday, 5 October 1994 MEČIAR ON FUTURE SLOVAK GOVERNMENT Bratislava In an interview with Slovenská republika on 5 October, Mečiar said the results of the elections are problematic since his party did not gain a majority. But he noted that the HZDS will look first to the Slovak National Party and the Association of Workers of Slovakia to form a coalition, since their platforms are the closest to his party s. Mečiar also said he would ask the Constitutional Court to rule on the legitimacy of the Democratic Union s (DEÚS) participation in the elections, claiming that the party did not have 10,000 valid signatures when it registered. ANALYSIS: SLOVAK ELECTIONS BRING FUTURE INTO QUESTION Analysis by an American academic. After six months of calm in Slovakia under the leadership of Prime Minster Jozef Moravčík, the fragmented composition of the new Parliament following the 30 September and 1 Slovenské národnodemokratické hnutie.

7 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 7 1 October elections will make it difficult for any group of parties to form a stable government, and many observers are predicting another set of early elections within the next two years. On 4 October President Michal Kováč called a meeting with leaders of the seven victorious parties for discussions on forming a new government. Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) Chairman Vladimír Mečiar refused to attend the talks, sending instead Ivan Lexa and Oľga Keltošová as party representatives. Criticizing Kováč for calling the meeting rather than immediately naming Mečiar to set up a new government, Lexa demanded the president s resignation. Although according to the constitution the president is not required to appoint the chairman of the biggest party as prime minister, following the meeting Kováč sent a letter to Mečiar asking him to form a government and giving him until 18 October to report on the status of coalition talks. Coalition possibilities Although Mečiar now has the chance to create a coalition government, it is uncertain that he will be able to do so. The HZDS together with its previous partner, the Slovak National Party (SNS), won 70 seats in the 150-seat Parliament, compared with 67 for the current coalition government, which consists of Common Choice (CC), the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and the Democratic Union (DEÚS) and which has silent support from the Hungarian coalition. Both sides are short of a majority and would thus depend on the thirteen seats of the far-left Association of Workers of Slovakia (ZRS) for governmental support. ZRS Chairman Ján Ľupták has repeatedly said, however, that his party prefers to remain in the constructive opposition, voting only for those laws which it supports. There are a number of different options for Slovakia s new government, although none is ideal from any perspective. Although all party chairmen have said they are willing to hold discussions with almost any other Parliamentary party, some combinations can basically be ruled out, including the HZDS or SNS with the Hungarians or the SNS with any of the parties making up the present government. The most logical coalition resulting from the elections would be one between the HZDS, SNS and ZRS, which would have 83 seats. Although Ľupták said he was unwilling to take part in any government, he might offer his party s silent support for such a coalition, particularly on economic issues. Furthermore, the congress of the Party of the Democratic Left (SDĽ) (the largest party in the CC) to be held on 15 October is expected to bring a leadership change, which could mean that someone more favorable to supporting a Mečiar government will come into power. Even so, it is uncertain how the other partners in the CC would react to such a move, not to mention those in the SDĽ s progressive wing, led by current Chairman Peter Weiss. Many are predicting a split within the SDĽ, with current Defense Minister Pavol Kanis leading a faction which is leaning towards Mečiar. If a split should occur, an HZDS-SNS coalition would most likely have enough votes for a Parliamentary majority, even without ZRS support. This possibility, like any coalition involving the HZDS, would depend on

8 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 8 Mečiar s willingness to cooperate and compromise with the members of the other parties, something at which he has not had much success in the past. If such a coalition cannot be formed, or if the Mečiar chooses not to form it out of concern for Slovakia s international image (both the SNS and ZRS are extremist parties, at either end of the spectrum), the HZDS might try to form a broad coalition between the HZDS, the CC, the DEÚS and the KDH. This proposal, which was suggested by Weiss, would give the government the greatest possible Parliamentary support, with 111 seats. What makes this scenario unlikely is that severe personality conflicts (particularly between the HZDS and the DEÚS, whose split from the HZDS triggered Mečiar s fall in March) would most certainly require that someone other than Mečiar hold the post of prime minister, which the HZDS has said would be unacceptable. The HZDS alone with the CC is another possibility, which would mean 79 seats, although this might also be impossible with Mečiar as premier, as SDĽ member Brigita Schmögnerová has expressed reluctance to support a Mečiar-led coalition government. If these options fail and Mečiar is unable to form a government within 30 days, the President can ask someone else to try. The only real possibility without HZDS involvement would be a continuation of the present government, whose three parties have 50 seats, or 80 with the addition of the Hungarian coalition and the participation or silent support of the ZRS. This coalition, however, is also unlikely because of its inherent instability based on the fact that the leftist ZRS is fundamentally opposed to certain aspects of the current government s program, particularly concerning privatization. Meanwhile, although the Hungarians have expressed interest in participation in the new government, no Slovak party wants to suffer the political consequences of a possible autonomy movement and would thus be unlikely to agree to such a coalition without a pledge that the issue will not be brought forward. In any case, the participation of the Hungarians in the government would make it vulnerable to strong attacks from the SNS and HZDS, both of which would remain in the opposition. What does the election mean for Slovakia? The election results reveal that the Slovak population is widely divided over what it wants: fast-paced economic reforms or slow ones, foreign investment or domestic investors, a strong leader or a strong government. Although the percentage of votes going to parties supporting economic reform and democracy has grown since 1992, a large percentage of voters continues to support nationalist/populist parties. Meanwhile, a significant portion of the population seems to be disenchanted with politics altogether, since only 75.65% of 3,876,555 eligible voters exercised their right to vote. In terms of policies of the future government on such issues as foreign relations, economics and minorities, it will largely depend on who is in control. Clearly, the five party coalition of the CC, KDH, DEÚS, Hungarians and ZRS, although unstable, would be the

9 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 9 most acceptable to the West. Even if partnership with the ZRS would likely lead to a slow-down in economic reforms, its program is balanced in the other two areas, as it guarantees the unity of honest people...regardless of their nationality, religion or level of education and wants to demonstrate our intention to integrate into European political, economic and security structures. Any coalition involving the HZDS could be a threat to Hungarian-Slovak relations, as Mečiar has antagonized the Hungarian minority in the past. Even so, the HZDS policy on the economy is certainly closer to that of the present coalition than is that of the ZRS, thus making the perspectives for a broad coalition of the HZDS, CC, KDH and DEÚS a better option in certain ways, particularly if a compromise candidate for prime minister could be found. Although some believe that Mečiar might be persuaded to agree to such an arrangement, knowing that the international reputation of his country is at stake, such a solution would probably be used only as a last resort. The coalition least likely to meet Western standards in economics, foreign relations and minorities that between the HZDS and SNS with the possible support of the ZRS and a leftist portion of the SDĽ is also the most probable. Sneaking into the Parliament at just over 5% with a campaign slogan We don t want foreigners, the SNS supports a law on the protection of the state, favors the exclusive use of the Slovak language in official communication and is directed against impoverishment by international capital. It is too early to say whether such a government, with the support of part of the SDĽ, would have the three-fifths majority needed to change the constitution. Even this government, however, would not have much economic leverage if it wants to avoid damaging relations with the IMF, which offered Slovakia a stand-by loan this summer. Meanwhile, the coupon privatization program which was begun in September by the current coalition, is unlikely to be stopped without a fight. Although all Slovak party leaders realize the need for a stable government which will last for four years, it remains to be seen how much they will be willing to sacrifice in order to achieve this aim. If a compromise cannot be reached, new elections can be expected before long. SLOVAK PRESIDENT ADDRESSES COUNCIL OF EUROPE Strasbourg, France Addressing the Council of Europe Assembly on 5 October, Michal Kováč noted that Slovakia has fulfilled all the recommendations made by the council when it joined the organization. He also stressed Slovakia s willingness to sign the council s convention on minorities, which, he said, should be recognized as setting standards for all European nations. At the same time, Kováč said any form of territorial autonomy for ethnic minorities in Slovakia would mean political destabilization. Slovakia supports individual rather than collective rights for minorities, he noted: Only freedom of an

10 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 10 individual can guarantee freedom of a state. On returning to Bratislava, Kováč said at a press conference that he can imagine cooperation with Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) Chairman Vladimír Mečiar as premier; however, both need to take steps to repair mutual relations. SLOVAKIA TO CRACK DOWN ON TAX CHEATS Bratislava The Slovak government plans to crack down on tax cheats and enforce a much-criticized cash receipt system to harness a rising budget deficit, the TASR news agency quoted a finance ministry official as saying. Under the plan, proposed by finance ministry state secretary Jozef Troják, banks should inform tax offices about new accounts opened by businesses. Troják, speaking in a late-night television news program on Tuesday, did not indicate when the proposed measures might come into effect. Slovak business managers have often complained about a recently-introduced cash receipts system, which obliges them to register each transaction immediately, saying the system was introduced too quickly and is expensive. Slovakia s budget deficit currently stands at about 17 billion crowns ($606 million), Troják said, adding that the state needed greater financial discipline in the insurance sector. According to Slovak Statistical Bureau, the deficit stood at billion crowns ($534 million) at the end of August. (Reuters) Tuesday, 4 October 1994 PRESIDENT KOVÁČ ASKS MEČIAR TO FORM GOVERNMENT Bratislava Following the 4 October meeting, President Michal Kováč gave HZDS Chairman Vladimír Mečiar until 18 October to report on the status of coalition talks. The HZDS and its former coalition partner, the Slovak National Party, fell short of a Parliamentary majority and need to find support among other Parliamentary parties to form a government. It is still unclear whether Mečiar will receive this support from the Association of Workers of Slovakia or possibly from the Common Choice coalition. Another possibility is a broad coalition between the HZDS, Common Choice, the Christian Democratic Movement, and the Democratic Union, but such a grouping seems highly unlikely. If Mečiar fails to form a government within 30 days, the president can ask someone else to try. MEČIAR S PARTY CALLS ON PRESIDENT KOVÁČ TO RESIGN Bratislava At a meeting on 4 October with the chairmen of the seven parties elected to the new Parliament, President Michal Kováč was asked to resign by representatives of Vladimír Mečiar s Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS). Mečiar refused to attend the talks and has decided to send HZDS representatives to all coalition discussions

11 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 11 until the final stages. Ivan Lexa and Oľga Keltošová, who went in his place, criticized Kováč for calling a meeting rather than immediately naming Mečiar, the chairman of the party that won the most votes in the 30 September and 1 October elections, as the new prime minister. Keltošová said the HZDS will no longer consult the president on the composition of the new cabinet. When Kováč interrupted Lexa, the two HZDS representatives stormed out of the room. According to the constitution, the president is required to appoint a premier after elections and approve a new government, but it does not state that he must choose the chairman of the biggest party. Presidential spokesman Anton Baláž said the leaders of all other Parliamentary parties criticized Lexa s behavior. Association of Workers of Slovakia (ZRS) Chairman Ján Ľupták said the president must be respected since he was legally elected. FUTURE GOVERNMENT IMPORTANT FOR INVESTORS Bratislava Slovakia s economic reforms could be threatened if a nationalist-left government emerges from fractious coalition talks begun on Tuesday, analysts said. Ex-Premier Vladimír Mečiar s Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) scored a decisive victory in Slovakia s first Parliamentary elections on Saturday on a populistnationalist platform, far exceeding pre-election polls in taking 35% of the vote. Seven parties won Parliamentary representation, producing a near-even split between the reformist and a go-slow bloc with support from members within HZDS and several other parties. Who creates the government is extremely important, Ivan Ďurovčík, Corporate Finance Director at Ernst & Young CS Consulting in Bratislava, told Reuters. A government consisting of the HZDS, and its ally the extreme-nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) and the Worker s Association of Slovakia (ZRS) would be a total disaster for Slovakia, from the point of view of privatization and further economic reforms, Ďurovčík said. However, should a broad coalition emerge that includes the two centrist parties and the reformed communists now in the outgoing government and perhaps even HZDS, Slovak analysts said that they expect the reform process to continue. I still think realism will prevail and we ll see a grand coalition, but how long that takes is a different story, said one Slovak commercial banker. The outgoing government of Prime Minister Jozef Moravčík launched an ambitious privatization program involving the sell off of state-owned assets through a massive vouchers-for-shares program. While most Slovak brokers agreed that a Mečiar-led government would be hard pressed to stop the program which enjoyed strong public support, analysts said they expect privatization to take a back seat to politics for a while.

12 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 12 I expect privatization, especially coupon privatization to slow down a bit, but I don t think it will be completely abolished, Hans Holzhacker, an east European analyst at GiroCredit Research in Vienna told Reuters. Further disputes may arise within any coalition over the former government s (privatization) schedule, Holzhacker added. Prime Minister Moravčík raised Slovakia s international stature considerably in July after reaching an agreement with the International Monetary Fund over loans totaling $263 million. The backbone of the IMF accord lies in continuing a tight monetary policy and strengthening foreign currency reserves. I don t expect monetary policy will be affected too much because the National Bank of Slovakia will stay rather independent, Holzhacker said. If the government is weak, of course, there may be pressures to increase expenditures and this could increase the budget deficit by next year, which is crucial, not so much by itself, but because of the IMF agreement, Holzhacker said. Slovakia has seen its hard currency reserves held by the NBS more than double from $441.5 million in January to $1.24 billion on 1 September. (Reuters) SLOVAK AND FOREIGN NEWSPAPER HEADLINES, QUOTES ON ELECTIONS Nový čas: IT S DONE! 1 Práca: MEČIARISTS WON AS EXPECTED Pravda: ALMOST WITHOUT BIGGER SURPRISES Slovenská republika: HISTORICAL VICTORY OF THE FOUNDERS OF THE STATE V. MEČIAR AND HZDS Slovenský denník: SLOVAK VOTER SAID WHAT HE DOESN T WANT, BUT NOT WHAT HE DOES WANT Sme: HZDS ROLLED OVER ALL, WHAT COLORS WILL THE GOVERNMENT HAVE? Smena: RESULTS DO NOT SOLVE MUCH Trend: RESULTS COMPLICATE PROSPECTS OF SLOVAKIA S ECONOMY Kurier, Austria: ELECTIONS COULDN T HAVE ENDED WORSE Der Standard, Austria: SLOVAKIA IS CLOSER TO UNEASY TIMES AGAIN Życie Warszawy, Poland: RESULTS SHOW THE WORST POSSIBLE SCENARIO The Financial Times, United Kingdom: If Mečiar becomes Prime Minister, Slovak politics will be moved from center to extremes. Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland: The loss of the post-communist SDĽ can lead to Peter Weiss being replaced by a person able to co-operate with Mečiar. 1 The Slovak equivalent of Factum est from Catiline Orations by Marcus Tullius Cicero, 63 B.C.E. M.V.

13 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 13 The Independent, United Kingdom: Reform in Central Europe suffered one of its biggest hits after the victory of V. Mečiar and his populist nationalist party. Le Libre Belgique, Belgium: A cold shower. It s hard to make a serious study of an adolescent nation, which selects according to emotions. Die Presse, Austria: The result of the election will not encourage foreign investors. Le Soir, Belgium: Slovakia wasted its first election. A chance for Slovakia will come only with Mečiar s fall. The Times, United Kingdom: Slovakia stepped back in its integration to Europe. ANALYSIS: MEČIAR SCORES BIG VICTORY IN SLOVAK ELECTIONS Analysis by an American academic. Unexpected results Although everyone expected the HZDS-PP to win the highest percentage of votes in the elections, almost no one thought the coalition would attract nearly 35%, as opinion polls in August and September put the coalition at between 19.3 and 28.5%. Still, Mečiar s big victory can hardly be seen as a surprise in light of his continued popular appeal, his fierce attacks on the current government and his party s strong election campaign, which apparently helped him to attract previously undecided voters. Of particular importance was the incident on 30 September when Mečiar was turned away from the polling station in his Bratislava constituency since he was not on the election list. That evening, Slovak TV reported on the incident and quoted an HZDS statement which called it an attempt to manipulate the Parliamentary elections. The Slovak Election Commission, as well as several political parties, later criticized the TV report, saying it constituted a violation of the election law, which bars media campaigns during the voting period. Although the commission resolved the problem of unlisted voters on the evening of 30 September, allowing Mečiar to cast his ballot on 1 October, analysts say the TV address could have influenced a significant number of undecided voters to support Mečiar. While Mečiar s strong campaigning contributed to his wide victory, the current government, which includes the Party of the Democratic Left, the Christian Democratic Movement and the Democratic Union, is largely responsible for its own disappointing results in the elections. Less professional election campaigns, a failure to encourage greater voter participation, the implementation of economic restrictions shortly before the elections and the unwillingness to go further in replacing Mečiar appointees in such organizations as Slovak TV could be counted as some of the present cabinet s mistakes, leading it to gain only an expected 50 seats in the Parliament, which is 10 less than the HZDS-PP coalition. Despite the recent onset of an economic upswing and the cabinet s positive image abroad, the government will likely have only 68 seats even including the Hungarians,

14 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 14 which have provided it with silent support during the past six months. In comparison, the HZDS and its previous coalition partner, the extremist Slovak National Party, will have 69. While the Hungarians probably won the maximum possible (approximately equal to the percentage of Hungarians living in Slovakia as a whole), 1 the results of the three governing partners could have been better. Support for the right-of-center KDH is low considering the Slovaks strong Catholic orientation, but negative feelings about KDH Chairman Ján Čarnogurský s tenure as Slovak Prime Minister prior to the June 1992 elections, as well as the party s policies regarding certain Church-related issues have caused some would-be supporters to vote for other parties. Even so, the KDH s percentage rose from 8.88% in the 1992 elections. The results for the centrist DEÚS were also low in light of the party s high visibility; the party holds the posts of prime minister, deputy prime minister, finance minister and foreign minister in the current government. The relatively high approval ratings for DEÚS Chairman and Prime Minister Jozef Moravčík, which in recent polls were about 18-19%, making him second only to Mečiar, were never fully transferred to the party itself. Still, the DEÚS did not do badly considering that it was formed only in April, giving it little time to organize. While both the KDH and the DEÚS achieved results which resembled their scores in recent opinion polls, probably the biggest surprise in the elections was the low showing for the Common Choice, a coalition which includes the SDĽ, as well as the Social Democratic Party of Slovakia (SDPS), the Green Party (SZS) and the tiny Peasant Movement (SRS). In August the coalition had polled as high as 19.3%, giving the HZDS less than a 10% lead. Progressive SDĽ Chairman Peter Weiss clearly miscalculated by thinking that the coalition would attract all the votes of its component parts; instead, the entire coalition gained even less than what the SDĽ alone was registering in most polls shortly before the coalition was formed. It is possible that former SDĽ supporters were turned off by the party s participation in the current reform-oriented government and by its cooperation with the more liberal SDPS and thus decided to vote instead for the far-leftist ZRS or the Communist Party, which won a surprising 2.72% of the vote. Likewise, former SZS and SDPS supporters may have been turned off by the domination of the SDĽ in the coalition. Rumors of a split between the leftist and reformist wings in the SDĽ likely had an effect on voters as well. 1 This is an error. While the percentage of the votes for the Hungarian coalition among all the valid votes happens to be 10.18%, i.e. a digit similar to the overall percentage of the Hungarian minority in Slovakia, the two numbers coincide just by chance. Thepercentage of the Hungarians among all the eligible voters in Slovakia is approximately 11.5%. Only 7.7% of all the eligible voters voted for the Hungarian coalition. See also my breakdown, Preferences of the 74% Slovaks Not Voting for Mečiar, on p. 2 of this SLOVAK NEWS. M.V.

15 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 15 Finally, the coalition was hurt by the failure of its potential coalition partner, the Democratic Party (DS), to enter the Parliament. The conservative party had regrouped since its failure to enter the Parliament in 1992, but its fluctuating results in polls, which ranged from 1.9 to 6.3% in the two months prior to the elections, caused some would-be voters to elect other parties. SLOVAK CABINET CREATES AGENCY TO FIGHT RACISM Bratislava The cabinet of Jozef Moravčík agreed on 4 October to set up a government agency tasked with combating racism, xenophobia, anti-semitism, and intolerance. The move follows a recommendation by the Council of Europe during its October 1993 session. The cabinet also approved measures proposed by the Finance Ministry to limit budget spending in order not to exceed the planned budget deficit of 14 billion crowns, TASR reports. Monday, 3 October 1994 VOTERS BACK EX-PREMIER IN SLOVAKIA Bratislava After six months of stability, Slovakia appeared headed toward political disarray today after results showed that the man twice ousted as Prime Minister had far outstripped other candidates in the country s first national elections. But the former PM, Vladimír Mečiar, an ardent nationalists, won only 35% of the vote and will not be able to form a government of his own. Mr. Mečiar, 52, will try to find a coalition partner to join his Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) while other parties will try to prevent him to coming to power. But whatever the outcome of the political haggling that began today, a new government is likely to be a short-lived, analysts said. The voting, held Friday and Saturday, was the first in Slovakia since it became independent after split of Czechoslovakia in January In contrast to the Czech Republic, where inflation and unemployment have been kept under control, Slovakia has suffered from economic and political gyrations. Only in the last six months, when a coalition government took office after Mr. Mečiar lost a non-confidence vote, has Slovakia shown signs of catching up to Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Since March, unemployment has held steady at 14%, inflation has fallen and the gross domestic product has risen by 5.3%. Just as important for a nation strategically situated between Ukraine and Hungary, relations improved between the government and the 600,000 Hungarians in southern Slovakia. The new Hungarian PM, Gyula Horn, recently came to Bratislava, the first state visit between the countries since relations soured five years ago.

16 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 16 If Mr. Mečiar does emerge as the new leader, tensions between Government and the Hungarian minority are expected to rise again. A bloc of three parties representing ethnic Hungarians made autonomy for southern Slovakia, where the Hungarians live, a major point of its platform. All other parties in Slovakia, particularly Mr. Mečiar s, find the demand unacceptable. During the campaign, Mr. Mečiar revved up crowds with anti- Hungarian comments, saying that coalition Government had sold Slovakia out to Hungary. There is no stability on the Slovak political stage and this election will not solve any of the problems, said Rudolf Chmel, a former Czechoslovak Ambassador to Hungary and the candidate in the election for the centrist party, the Democratic Union (DEÚS). Mr. Mečiar, who has cast himself as the father of the nation and filled his campaign talk with phrases about being a good Slovak, struck a chord with many. He promised to cut taxes by 25%, stop privatization and curb foreign investment. He s the most significant personality in Slovakia, said Jozef Goralka, a 47-year-old at the ZVL, ball-bearing factory at Kysucké Nové Mesto, 160 miles from Bratislava. He knows what he wants, he can talk, he is straightforward. (NYT) DISCUSSIONS ON NEW SLOVAK GOVERNMENT BEGIN Bratislava President Michal Kováč is to meet with party leaders on 4 October for discussions on forming a new coalition government. Since both HZDS and the current coalition government failed to gain an overall majority, they are now dependent on the support of the far-left Association of Workers of Slovakia (ZRS) to form a government. But in a 2 October Slovak Television discussion, ZRS Chairman Ján Ľupták said his party preferred to remain in opposition. While there have been calls for creating a broad coalition consisting of the HZDS, Common Choice (SV), 1 the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH), and the Democratic Union (DEÚS), the last three are unlikely to accept Mečiar as premier a condition stipulated by HZDS. A split within Common Choice s largest party, the Party of the Democratic Left (SDĽ), remains a possibility, and the leftist-oriented faction might support an HZDS-SNS cabinet, which would likely give Mečiar a slim Parliamentary majority. RUSSIAN NEWSPAPER: SLOVAK ELECTION PROBABLY GOOD FOR RUSSIA From Kommersant Daily, Russia Is the new balance of power in the tiny Central European country advantageous for Russia? Probably yes. 1 Spoločná voľba.

17 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 17 Mainly because Slovakia, despite its continuing orientation towards European integration, differs from the other former Soviet satellites, which changed their orientation fast and threw themselves to the West. Slovakia may introduce some confusion into the plans of the U.S. and its allies regarding the NATO-ization of Europe. No wonder that in Washington Mečiar isn t loved too much and is considered a successor to the communist regime, still looking towards Moscow. It looks like the West will try to improve a missed chance and increase pressure on Slovakia with the aim of reaching such a political development that would decrease the dependence of the country on Russia. In this case Mečiar will have to choose between protection against a threat from the East and traditionally strong relations with Russia. ANALYSIS: AMERICAN BUSINESSWOMAN OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SLOVAKIA Analysis by an American investor familiar with Slovakia and post-communist Europe. I was asked to explain why I was optimistic about Slovakia. I ll start by stating my assumptions about the U.S., Slovakia, and the way at least part of the world works. I think some of you may find my assumptions naive, chauvinistic, and tainted. But what the heck nobody s prefect. 1. The U.S.: I think that there is reasonable evidence that the U.S. is the fairest and most reliable partner of any of the major countries. The Marshall Plan was, I believe, our defining moment and, despite a certain propensity on the part of the beneficiaries toward America-bashing, I m quite sure that, if the need arose, we would do it again. (Unfortunately, if Mr. Zhirinovsky has his way, I think the Russians would also repeat THEIR role). Partly because of the distance and partly because of the America-bashing, we are at a considerable disadvantage in marketing and selling our goods in the former Command-Economy countries. We really need a proximate, stable, industrialized partner capable of contributing to the development, manufacture, and distribution of products. 2. Slovakia: Slovakia is geographically well situated, particularly in light of a navigable Danube. In addition it is stable (please do not mistake the instability of the government for the instability of the country if that were the case, Italy would have erupted years ago), industrialized, and contains an astonishing amount of brain-power for a country as small as it is. However, after so many years of enjoying the largesse of the Soviet Union, its industrial plant is in tatters, its business know-how barely exists, and it desperately needs both an economic jump-start and a few years of hand-holding in order to assume a competitive position in the world economy. (For those whose Slovak chauvinism approaches my American

18 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 18 chauvinism, this does NOT imply a cultural take-over). In addition, my observation has been that the Slovaks are inherently a decent bunch of people. 3. The Way of the World: Countries peopled by rational, fair-minded people may in the short term do some nutty things (I haven t been too crazy about some of OUR recent presidents) but over time they will act in their own economic and social best interests. So where does that leave us? From the Slovak point of view, the U.S. is an ideal business partner for a number of reasons including those implied by the assumptions stated above. This is particularly true since several U.S. government studies indicate that, while America is quite strong in the theoretical aspects of materials science, we are not very good at developing market-place applications. As it happens that is one of Slovakia s greatest applications-research strengths. From the U.S. point of view Slovakia is an ideal business partner for several reasons, in addition to the materials science fit. Positively, of course, are the reasons inherent in the assumptions listed above. From a negative point of view, who else is there? The components of the former Soviet Union are, for the most part, either not stable, not accessible, or not industrialized. The Czech Republic is in Germany s orbit. Poland is too big. Hungary had its chance and did not (no pun intended) capitalize on it. If the Way of the World is as I assume, these two countries will eventually get together to the great economic (and probably social) benefit of both. Note that this will be a synergistic relationship, NOT an unequal partnership since both partners would be bringing value to the relationship. Thus, optimism. DETAILED ELECTION RESULTS: MEČIAR SCORES DECISIVE VICTORY Bratislava Slovak media report that in elections held on 30 September and 1 October, seven groups passed the 5% hurdle needed to gain representation in the Slovak Parliament. The winner was former Premier Vladimír Mečiar s Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), whose coalition with the tiny Peasant Party (RSS) 1 won 34.96% of the vote, significantly higher than all recent opinion polls suggested. The Common Choice (SV) coalition (composed of four left-wing parties) came a distant second with 10.41%, which was much lower than expected. The three-party Hungarian Coalition (MK) followed with 10.18%, the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) with 1 Roľnícka strana Slovenska.

19 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News %, the Democratic Union (DEÚS) with 8.57%, the Association of Workers of Slovakia (ZRS) with 7.34%, and the Slovak National Party (SNS) with 5.4%. The Democratic Party (DS) failed to gain entry into the Parliament, winning only 3.42% of the vote. According to preliminary results, HZDS, together with its previous partner, SNS, won 69 seats in the 150-strong Parliament, while the current coalition government, together with the Hungarian Coalition, won 68. Turnout out among Slovakia s 3,876,555 eligible voters was 75.65%. MEČIAR BARRED FROM VOTING ON FIRST DAY Bratislava Although international observers did not note any major irregularities in the Slovak elections, it was reported that election lists in many precincts were incomplete. Voters not on the lists were turned away and prevented from voting. Vladimír Mečiar was among those in the Bratislava constituency who were turned away from the polling station on 30 September. Slovak Television reported the incident and quoted an HZDS statement calling it an attempt to manipulate the Parliamentary elections. The Slovak Election Commission, as well as several political parties, later called the television report a violation of the election law, which bans media campaigns during voting. The commission resolved the problem of unlisted voters on the evening of 30 September by allowing them to participate if they met other requirements laid down by the election law. Mečiar was able to cast his ballot on 1 October. Analysts say the television report may have influenced a significant number of undecided voters to support Mečiar. MEČIAR IN CAR COLLISION Bratislava Former Prime Minister Vladimír Mečiar, ebullient winner of Slovakia s weekend general election, came down to earth with a bump when his car collided with a tourist bus. The daily Slovenská republika reported Monday that the accident, involving Mečiar s Czech-made Škoda car and a bus carrying German sightseers, happened just outside Bratislava shortly after official election results were released. Mečiar s wife, daughter and son were in the car but there were no injuries. The election winner s party, the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS), confirmed that Mečiar had been involved in a road accident but declined to give details. Mečiar, ousted as premier in March in a Parliamentary no confidence vote, spent Monday in negotiations with other parties trying to cobble together a coalition government, Slo-

20 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 20 vak Radio reported. With 34.96% of the vote in the election, the HZDS is well positioned to emerge as leader of a coalition government. (Reuters) THE NEW YORK TIMES BOOK PRIZE TO A SLOVAK-AMERICAN By Norma Rudinsky, Professor of English, Oregon State University Slovak writers did well in the recent New York Times Book Prizes announced on September 23. The poetry prize was won by the young American poet Carolyn Forché, who is of Slovak ancestry (not active in the Slovak/American Slovak groups). I haven t read the book that won the prize, The Angel of History, which the Times says has four long poems that recreate personal and public nightmares of totalitarianism, abandonment, warfare and genocide from the Nazi concentration camps of World War II to ethnic cleansing in Bosnia. When I met her briefly in the 1980s after her poetry reading at Oregon State University she was going to visit some of the dissidents in Bratislava from her home in Paris, so perhaps that experience appears in some way in the poems. The Times also cites Derek Walcott, who says her poetry is suddenly important like the morning news but with a natural light that makes beauty political by its endurance. The award for a promising young writer was given to Martin M. Šimečka for his The Year of the Frog, which the Times describes as the story of Milan, a young Slovak who is denied access to a university education because his father is in jail for criticizing the Communist government. The novel, first published in serial form in an underground journal, explores the sensitive youth s coming of age against the background of a repressive regime. Translated by Peter Petro, the book was published by an American university press, and was earlier translated into French, and perhaps elsewhere. MOBIL BOOK AWARD TO UNDESERVING YEAR OF THE FROG By Richard Wallace, Professor of Anthropology, University of Massachusetts The Year of the Frog by Martin Šimečka was published by Louisiana State University Press. It won the Pegasus Prize last year which I guess is something invented by the Mobil Corporation to sponsor book translations. I was rather unimpressed with Šimečka s book and am frankly quite surprised it has received further attention. Having read it, I felt it would not have ever been translated if it had not been for the author s father and his friends (Václav Havel put his name on the very brief foreword of the copy I have). I found it interesting and at times illuminating, but I could not get past the ego of the protagonist, an ego the author may or may not been aware his character had. I will give the author credit: art imitates life here I have seen

21 3-9 October 1994, Slovak News 21 this self-centered male expecting all women-to-mother/love-him all over Bratislava. But I see Šimečka as committing unwitting hyperbole. Despite this, I would certainly encourage others to read it because I d like the feedback on my little comment. And I d encourage Slovak males to read it keeping in mind a female perspective. U.S., EU IRKED BY GERMAN WISH TO FIT SLOVAKIA, 5 OTHERS IN EU, NATO LIFE Luxembourg The European Union on Tuesday approved in principle a plan for closer contacts with six East European countries amid signs of tension within the Union over the pace of preparations to let them join the EU. Diplomats said EU foreign ministers failed to agree an exact timetable for such meetings recommended by the Union s German presidency, and sent the scheme back to their officials for more work on how the talks would be arranged. Under the German plan, six countries hoping to join the EU around the year 2000 Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria would attend EU summit talks once a year and meetings of Union foreign and justice ministers twice a year. Annual meetings were foreseen for ministers of finance, transport, telecommunications, research, environment, culture and education. Diplomats said France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Luxembourg voiced reservations about the details of the plan. Ministers endorsed a proposal for the European Commission to draw up a white paper by June next year outlining the steps which the East European states must take to adapt fully to the requirements of the EU s single market. Diplomats said the German plan for regular meetings had stirred controversy because it would involve joint preparation of the ministerial sessions. They said some EU states felt this could lead to future demands for similar treatment by other East European countries and by the EU s Mediterranean neighbors. Portuguese Foreign Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso said on Monday that southern states like Malta should not be overlooked because of the Union s fixation with Eastern Europe, and said eastward expansion must not unbalance the EU. Diplomats said Belgium saw a risk that the new procedures would lead to dilution of the EU s autonomy in decision-making. But if this was resisted, the non-eu countries involved would quickly feel that their influence on EU policies was illusory. Diplomats quoted French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe as stressing that joint meetings must be arranged in a flexible way and be informal in character. France also referred to an imbalance between the EU s concentration on East Europe and the attention it paid to countries to the south of the Union, where Paris is worried about the danger of spreading Islamic fundamentalism in Algeria.