Meanwhile, in Europe LECTURE 5

Transcription

1 Meanwhile, in Europe LECTURE 5

2 Essentials for understanding Merkel s Position German electoral/party system How Merkel rose to power in the CDU Merkel s reputation as pro-austerity, pro-eu politician Merkel s response to the migrant crisis Mother Merkel How each of these reputations played into the recent elections

3 German Government Core of the government is the Bundestag Unicameral legislature Elected ~4 years Bundestag chooses Chancellor (executive branch) Usually from largest party in Bundestag

4 Electoral System How 598 members of the Bundestag are selected: Mixed electoral system 299 are elected through first-past the post (SMDP) electoral system (like the US/Britain) 299 elected through proportional representation 299 seats party list proportional representation

5 Electoral System Why the mixed system? SMDP provides stable majority government PR more representative German Basic Law (constitution) attempting to achieve both goals through using half-and-half rules FYI other states do this too. Italy has a similar hybrid system.

6 Electoral Systems 2 Basic Forms 2 general forms of electoral rules Single member district plurality (SMDP) rules Country divided into districts Elections choose one person from each district Winner is the person with highest total number of votes plurality Tends to disadvantage small parties

7 Electoral Systems 2 Basic Forms 2 general forms of electoral rules Proportional representation (PR) Country has few or only 1 district(s) Seats in national legislature determined in proportion to votes cast 18% of vote = 18% of seats in legislature Uses a ranked party list Party determines who is on the list and in what order

8 Electoral Systems Problems with Forms Single-member district plurality (SMDP) Issue of disproportionality between votes and seats 43% of the vote gets 100% of the seat Possible that the majority of people did not vote for the winner Clinton: won with 43% in 1992 Trump: won with 46% in 2016

9 Electoral Systems Problems with Forms Implications of election rules SMDP: Results in government with majority control Able to act more decisively But, many people s votes not represented

10 Electoral Systems Problems with Forms Proportional representation Can be more representative of actual vote Esp. where thresholds are low (<5%) But, government requires much more compromise Coalitions (sometimes strange ones) needed to gain majority More likely for government to fall

11 Electoral Systems Effects on Politics Plurality system usually results in two competitive parties Forces parties (usually 2) to moderate positions Aim toward center of pol. spectrum Leaves more fringe positions unaddressed UNLESS population is polarized E.g. French legislature during Interwar period

12 Electoral Systems Electoral system impact on variety of party platforms Proportional representation (esp. low threshold) may encourage wide variation Parties as diverse as Communists and Libertarians may gain seats This variety sometimes moderated by coalition dynamics

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15 Why this Mix Works for Germany Representative, but downplays extremism Allows voice on many parts of the political spectrum Legacy of class warfare concerns of 1920s ( consociationalism) If people have no voice in elections/government, will turn to extrainstitutional means of voicing concerns/redressing grievances Encourages cooperation, moderation of positions Maintains stability of regime less likely government will fall

16 German Government Germany has a President Head of state (usually symbolic in this sort of system) But, Germany s President has some powers Can represent Germany in foreign policy Signs laws passed by Bundestag Some reserve powers in case of crisis Appointed by convention not direct election Current: Frank-Walter Steinmeier

17 German Government Chancellor Angela Merkel Head of government Similar to a Prime Minister elsewhere Government is the Chancellor plus her ministers Lawmaking and implementation authority

18 Merkel Rise to Power On paper, an unusual choice to lead the CDU in the 1980s Grew up in East Germany Trained chemist CDU traditionally an old boys network Worked her way up through Kohl era, became leader due to party scandals

19 Merkel Rise to Power Became first female leader of CDU party (1999) after leadership resigned in disgrace Brought down by campaign finance violations Known as the black money affair Both Helmut Kohl and Wolfgang Scheuble implicated in scandal

20 Merkel Rise to Power Became first female Chancellor in 2005 Appointed by Bundestag CDU/CSU coalition controlled Bundestag, so as leader of the dominant party in that (CDU) she became Chancellor As of 2018 election, is on her 4 th term as Chancellor

21 Merkel s Reputation on Austerity, EU Germany s anti-inflation bias Known the world over for paying any price to avoid inflation! Why: 1920s economic crisis and resultant hyperinflation I m sure you re familiar with this, but here is the graph on the value of the Deutchemark in the 1920s Considered a key part of Nazi Party s appeal in early 1930s

22 Hyperinflation

23 Germany, Inflation and Banking Germany s macroeconomic policies geared toward fighting inflation Inflation and unemployment work against each other So, Germany willing to tolerate unemployment to avoid inflation Have managed to avoid that trade off by being an export powerhouse (46% of economy based in export revenues)

24 Germany, Inflation, and Banking Germany historically set the rules for EU monetary policy/banking European Central Bank board has lots of influential Germans on it So, anti-inflation bias in Germany was elevated to European level When Eurozone is in trouble, they double down on antiinflationary measures

25 Merkel s Reputation on Austerity, EU Merkel is a typical pro-eu German leader EU fulfills important roles: Maintaining peace in Europe Keeping Germany tied to its neighbors Stabilizing the European economy Germany has long-standing commitment to defending EU And financial wherewithal to keep it together

26 Merkel s Reputation on Austerity, EU Enter the 2009 Financial Crisis Threatened the Eurozone A number of ways you could fix it: Devalue the currency Increase government expenditures ( stimulus ) Internal adjustment (a.k.a. austerity ) Germany s (and EU s, because Germany is a key leader) solution was austerity

27 Eurozone

28 Merkel s Reputation on Austerity, EU

29 Merkel s Reputation on Austerity, EU

30 Merkel s Reputation on Austerity, EU Portrayed as: A heartless automaton Acting only in Germany s interests and harming everyone else Lumped in with the IMF by critics of austerity Fact that Germany didn t suffer as much internal devaluation (because of trade) led to even more resentment by states that suffered

31 Merkel s Position on the Migrant Crisis VERY different reputation in the migrant crisis In 2015, adopted a very open asylum policy for Syrian/Iraqi refugees Willing to accept 500,000-1,000,000 refugees (Legally) decided not to follow the Dublin Convention allow refugees who made it to Germany to apply for asylum there Called it Germany s national duty to give safe haven

32 Mother Merkel

33 Migrant Crisis Response Mother Merkel Background info: Because of her different upbringing, she had different views of certain policies than the former leadership Especially regarding diversity religious, gender, ethnic Willing to say that Germany is a country of immigration More pragmatic approach need for skilled workers Slowly edged party toward a position that is more favorable to immigration

34 Mother Merkel Internationally, gained her a reputation for compassion Domestically, led to condemnation by conservative/far right elements E.g. the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Since 2015, developed a right-wing populist position Anti-immigration, anti-diversity, anti-eu platform And accusations of mismanagement by Social Democratic Party of Germany (SDP)

35 AfD Leaders Frauke Petry Björn Höcke

36 Islamophobia as Campaign Tool Only one party really willing to go there : AfD Usually, anything that seems to nationalist/exclusive is subjected to cordon sanitaire Germans far more energetic on this than the French Both political parties and social movements actively work to maintain cordon sanitaire

37 Islamophobia as Campaign Tool Other key actor: the social movement PEGIDA Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamicisation of the West Particularly popular in Eastern Germany One of its founders, Lutz Bachmann, went on trial for incitement due to Facebook posts One of which he sported a Hitler mustache In 2018, some AfD politicians wanted to lift party ban on AfD reps speaking at PEGIDA events

38 Islamophobia as Campaign Tool PEGIDA Has also elevated to power some former politicians of more openly neo-nazi parties (banned by Germany s Basic Law) E.g. National Democratic Party of Germany German government concerned this could increase xenophobia-related attacks Including on Jews in Germany NDP and its social movements are still openly anti-semitic

39 PEGIDA Rally in Dresden

40 SDP Leadership Martin Schulz

41 Schulz s Critique of Merkel on Migration Generally supported taking in refugees, but Said Merkel should have coordinated with other EU states Needed to expedite deportation of those without legitimate claim to asylum Needed to focus on integration of asylum seekers into German society

42 Lead in to 2017 Bundestag Elections So Merkel (and her party) were facing two tough issues: Austerity/economic neoliberalism and their critics Migrant crisis and the critics of Merkel s approach Even so, went into the Bundestag elections with point lead over next party (SDP) BUT, was apparent that the AfD was going to have a banner year (would clear 5% threshold)

43 2017 Bundestag Election Results Constituency Seats are SMDP List Seats are PR Parties/colors: Black/Blue CDU/CSU (centerright) Red SPD (centerleft) Light Blue AfD (populist right) Yellow FDP (liberal)

44 German Federal Election Results 2017 CDU/CSU: 32.5% SPD: 20.5% AfD: 12.6% FDP: 10.7% Left: 9.2% Greens: 8.9% Trends: upward from last election for everyone except CDU/CSU and SPD

45 2017 Election Results CDU/CSU did not have enough seats needed a coalition Leader of SDP, Martin Schultz, had said there would be no coalition with CDU Merkel tried to build a coalition with Greens and Free Democrats This failed, but SDP indicated willingness to negotiate Coalition government of CDU/CSU and SPD established in March 2018, but Schulz stepped down