Lecture Five: The United States and Russia As Geopolitical Partners or Rivals

Transcription

1 TRUMP VERSUS PUTIN: American-Russian Relations in a National and Global Context Lecture Five: The United States and Russia As Geopolitical Partners or Rivals

2 February 8. It s official: eight candidates, one president

3 February 12. Putin catches a diplomatic cold as claims of Russian casualties in the hundreds continue to circulate

4 February 15. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on the Syria incident: Western news reports of the death of dozens or even hundreds of Russians in Syria is classic disinformation. According to preliminary data, no more than five Russian citizens were killed

5 February 16. Russian Supreme Court rejects Ksenia Sobchak s petition to disqualify Putin from presidential election

6 February 16. Deputy Attorney General Rob Rosenstein announces indictment of 13 Russian nationals and three Russian entities in an alleged conspiracy to defraud the United States

7 President Trump was quick to react. His tweet was accurate

8 Mueller indictment takeaways The most authoritative institutional confirmation thus far of a Russian election-tampering plot which goes back to at least 2014 and was aimed at helping the Trump campaign and undermining Hilary Clinton s candidacy Unwitting members, volunteers, and supporters of the Trump campaign were involved Clandestine visits by Russian suspects to the United States, where they posed as US persons and contacted US social and political activists Charges include alleged violations of election laws forbidding foreign nationals from making expenditures in US elections and requiring foreign agents to register as such Central to the conspiracy was the Internet Research Agency ( troll factory ) in St. Petersburg No evidence of collusion, though plenty of political and geopolitical naivety (the Flynn syndrome) Rosenstein states that Russian interference did not affect the result of the 2016 election

9 Civil war within the establishment? Sanctions against Russia signed by President Trump after receiving overwhelming support in Congress. Five lawmakers voted against. In the House: Justin Amash (R-Mich.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), John Duncan (R-Tenn.) In the Senate: Ron Paul (R-Ky.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

10 The Flynn syndrome. Flynn made his name in military intelligence and counterinsurgency operations and served as director of the DIA in

11 Canadian educator Laurence J. Peter

12 From The Peter Principle: Why Things Always Go Wrong (1969) In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence Good followers do not become good leaders (though Putin is an exception) A less well known quote from the same source: In most hierarchies, super-competence is more objectionable than incompetence because the presence of accomplished employees disrupts and therefore violates the first commandment of hierarchical life: that the hierarchy must be preserved.

13 The vertical of power : President (Vladimir Putin)-presidential administration (Eduard Vaino & Sergei Kirienko)-government (Dmitry Medvedev)-FSB (Aleksandr Bortnikov)-Investigative Committee of Russia (Aleksandr Bastrykin)-Procuracy (Yuri Chaika) & the courts-federal Penitentiary Service (Gennady Kornienko)-interior ministry (Vladimir Kolokoltsev)-official & semiofficial media-federal Assembly and regional governors

14 While heading Moscow s interior ministry force, Kolokoltsev personally arrested Matvei Urin, who was later convicted of assaulting Putin s alleged son-in-law + other crimes. The incident occurred in 2010

15 Matvei Urin + bodyguards

16 Jorrit Joost Fassen, the alleged husband of Maria Putina, the president s eldest daughter

17 How to solve the Peter problem Recognize that the problem exists Subject hierarchy to exceptional stress (e.g., an army in time of war, but preferably, purposedesigned), or create one of your own (e.g., tech startups in Silicone Valley, private military contractors)

18 The Flynn syndrome is nicely illustrated by this photo, taken at a December 2015 dinner celebrating the 10 th anniversary of the Russian TV network RT. An advisor to the Trump campaign, Flynn was paid $45,000 to speak at this event. Must have been some speech, to quote Donald Trump on Hilary Clinton s notorious Goldman Sachs address

19 Flynn: Some interesting characters

20 Margarita Simonyan

21 Jill Stein

22 Mikhail Prokohov

23 and media celebrity and oligarch spouse Tina Kandelaki

24 Evgeny Prigozhin (b. 1961), known as Putin s chef, is a Russian minioligarch (with a reported fortune of $200 million), restaurateur, and exconvict (1981 conviction for robbery, spent 9 years in prison)

25 Prigozhin s New Island floating restaurant in St. Petersburg, where Putin entertained Jacques Chirac (2001), George W. Bush (2002), and celebrated his birthday (2003). Prigozhin made a point of personally serving the Russian president

26 January 19. Pentagon announces new National Defense Strategy. Here are the key takeaways: States are the principal actors on the global stage The central challenge to US prosperity and security is the reemergence of long-term, strategic competition by [ ] revisionist powers, i.e., China and Russia, which is a fundamentally different challenge from the regional adversaries of the past The international order is resilient, but weakening, and is being challenged by rogue regimes Strengthen NATO and expand regional partnerships and alliances

27 President Obama s West Point speech on December 8, 2009 illustrated the 44 th President s strengths and weaknesses as a geopolitician

28 Thucydides (c. 460 c. 400), an Athenian general and historian, was the author of the History of the Peloponnesian War. Its account of Sparta s revisionist was aims and practices has proved hugely influential

29 The cerebral US Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, has certainly read Thucydides

30 Established, revisionist, and declining powers prior to World War I

31 Established, revisionist, and declining powers prior to World War II

32 Established, revisionist, and declining powers in 2018

33 Grey zones and hybrid wars Grey-zone operations aim to reap either political or territorial gains normally associated with overt military aggression without [ ] open warfare (Economist, January 27, 2018) Examples: Russian annexation of the Crimea Russian intervention in east Ukraine Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election Chinese artificial island construction and navy buildup in the South China Sea

34 Ilya Glazunov s Eternal Russia (1988)

35 Christian believers Putin while viewing Glazunov s painting Eternal Russia: Boris and Gleb are saints, that s understood. But they completely gave up, without a fight. They can t serve as an example for us. They lay down and waited to be killed (2009) Asked by pollster Frank Luntz if he had ever asked God for forgiveness, Trump responded: I am not sure I have. I just try go on and try to do a better job from there. [ ] I don t bring God into the picture (2015)