Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2"

Transcription

1 Thinking About a US-China War, Part 2 Jan. 4, 2017 Sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict. By George Friedman This article is the second in a series. Read part 1 here. China has a key geopolitical imperative. It depends on exports to sustain its economy. Most of those exports are shipped by sea, and therefore access to the world market begins at its eastern coastal ports. Geography poses a problem for the Chinese. Shipments from the country s east coast ports, both south and north of the Taiwan Straits, must transit through a string of islands. Some are large islands, while others are extremely small. But they form a string of choke points through which Chinese maritime trade must pass. Choke points are normally geographic realities important to navigators but no one else. But they also create a potential vulnerability for China. The existence of choke points, however many, makes the movement of Chinese vessels predictable. More importantly, given a sufficient air-sea force, blocking those points can block Chinese exports and cripple the Chinese economy. 1 / 6

2 A Jan. 2, 2017 photo shows a Chinese navy formation, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning, center, during military drills in the South China Sea. STR/AFP/Getty Images The Chinese see the United States in three ways. First, the U.S. has an extremely powerful Navy. Second, the U.S. is highly unpredictable in how it responds to challenges. The Chinese saw this unpredictability in Korea, Vietnam, Kosovo, Operation Desert Storm, Iraq and so on. At times, the U.S. does not respond. Other times it over-reacts, from the Chinese point of view. Third, the U.S. prefers economic sanctions that at times include physically blocking the trade of a given country. Given these three facts about China s potential adversary, China finds itself in an extremely difficult position. It cannot match American naval power. It cannot predict what the U.S. will do. To the extent that the U.S. might choose, sanctions that include interference with Chinese trade are the most likely opening move. Therefore, the geography of the Western Pacific archipelago poses a potential threat to core Chinese national interests. There are many passages from China s east coast into the Pacific. The American task would be to create sustained interdiction of all passages without exposing U.S. vessels to excessive risk. The likely strategy would be to place about five carrier battle groups east and south of the archipelago. The vessels would be located as far east as possible to assure interception before 2 / 6

3 the maritime vessels reach high seas. They would be close enough to be within reach of air and sea anti-ship missiles, and close enough that carrier-based aircraft could have overlapping patrol zones without having to refuel. Submarines would also be used. The Chinese counter to this deployment would be primarily land-based anti-ship missiles. With so much American sea power backed by land-based strategic aircraft from Guam, Chinese ships would find it dangerous to sortie. Having anticipated this, the Chinese would try to strike at the blockade with anti-ship missiles. The problem with using anti-ship missiles is that while they have terminal guidance systems, they require some general targeting information. That would come from signal intelligence, satellites or longer-range drones. Chinese aircraft patrolling east of the archipelago would face both fighters and American missiles. The U.S. likely has antisatellite capability. But I would assume that both American and Chinese satellites have defensive systems, from the ability to maneuver to deploying ball bearings in an attacker s path. While it would be useful for the Chinese to blind American satellites, it would be essential for the Americans to do so. That would be difficult, but the real threat would be Chinese high-altitude drones locating American carrier battle groups. The Chinese would then deliver saturation attacks to overwhelm U.S. fleet anti-missile defenses. The U.S. would try to shoot down the drones or render them mute through electronic warfare. 3 / 6

4 4 / 6

5 (click to enlarge) The Chinese have been pushing toward this point. They cannot tolerate a blockade and cannot engage in full-fleet action against the Americans. The construction of extensive anti-ship systems coupled with multiple types of sensors is the key. Therefore, if the U.S. wants to carry out a blockade, it would need an extensive air operation to destroy Chinese anti-missile capabilities. And that must be preceded by massive suppression of air defense. Note that as with the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, what appears to be a simple problem spins out of control. The U.S. can t be certain it would not be detected and would have to attack the Chinese mainland. Even then it would be unlikely to destroy all Chinese missiles, and Chinese command and control is undoubtedly redundant. The possibility of significant U.S. losses can t be discounted. That would mean that the use of sanctions and blockades as an alternative to armed conflict would lead to armed conflict. The Chinese have not, however, fully solved their problem. Even if they drive everyone out of the East and South China seas, which isn t likely, they are still enclosed by the archipelago. They know the U.S. is unpredictable and therefore can t assume that the U.S. is reading the battle problem as they are. The Chinese are not facing imminent crisis, but they must have a long-term goal of taking control of the choke points and basing in such a way as to push the U.S. Navy back into the central Pacific. Attack by main force is not an option. There are too many choke points, and the American response is too unpredictable. The ideal solution is political. This works one of two ways. The first is to reach an agreement with a major country that controls key choke points to allow passage and a Chinese naval presence. Aside from Taiwan, the country that would be valuable in this regard is the Philippines. As long as the Taiwan Straits are open, the Philippines could serve as an exit point. You might note the behavior of the Filipino president of late. The second option would be to create insurgencies to destabilize one or more countries. This is far less efficient than a political shift, but the Chinese have been quite good in the past with supporting insurgencies, while the U.S. is not at all good at counterinsurgency. It would not provide a satisfactory solution to the Chinese in any reasonable time frame. The point I am making here and in yesterday s analysis is that any discussion of war between the U.S. and China overestimates either the Chinese capability or the American capability. The Chinese would not be able to take Taiwan. There are too many failure points. The U.S. could blockade China if it was prepared to accept losses. The U.S. is risk averse, and minimizing threats would mean a far larger war than merely a naval picket line. 5 / 6

6 Powered by TCPDF ( Geopolitical Futures Each action by either side faces a counter that opens the door not only to failure but also to losing forces neither side can afford to lose. The only practical way to force a change in the balance of power in the region is a shift in alliances by one of the countries, and the Philippines is the one to watch. 6 / 6

China's Strategy. Jan. 11, Originally produced Jan. 4, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC. By George Friedman

China's Strategy. Jan. 11, Originally produced Jan. 4, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC. By George Friedman China's Strategy Jan. 11, 2016 Originally produced Jan. 4, 2016 for Mauldin Economics, LLC By George Friedman The sharp decline in Chinese stock markets on Monday is a reminder of two things. The first

More information

The US Is Not Abandoning Asia

The US Is Not Abandoning Asia The US Is Not Abandoning Asia Feb 13, 2017 A look at US military and investment positions in the Asia-Pacific region. Originally produced on Feb. 6, 2017 for Mauldin Economics, LLC George Friedman and

More information

Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia

Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia Crowded Waters in Southeast Asia June 23, 2017 Jihadism in Marawi is actually a good thing for U.S. strategy in Asia. By Phillip Orchard Cooperation among Southeast Asian states has never come easy, but

More information

Japan s Position as a Maritime Nation

Japan s Position as a Maritime Nation Prepared for the IIPS Symposium on Japan s Position as a Maritime Nation 16 17 October 2007 Tokyo Session 1 Tuesday, 16 October 2007 Maintaining Maritime Security and Building a Multilateral Cooperation

More information

Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar Dec. 5, 2016 Putting China on the defensive. By George Friedman U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke on the telephone with the president of Taiwan. This caused deep upset

More information

Strategic & Defence Studies Centre ANU College of Asia & the Pacific The Australian National University

Strategic & Defence Studies Centre ANU College of Asia & the Pacific The Australian National University The CENTRE of GRAVITY Series The US Pivot to Asia and Implications for Australia Robert S Ross Professor, Boston College and Associate, Harvard University March 2013 Strategic & Defence Studies Centre

More information

Philippines U.S. pawn in its looming clash with China?

Philippines U.S. pawn in its looming clash with China? POWER FEUDS IN THE SCS (WPS): Prospects of Dispute Settlement between Philippines & China Philippines U.S. pawn in its looming clash with China? Political Science Week, UP Manila Dec. 04, 2012 By Center

More information

The Legal Regime Governing Passage on Routes used for International Navigation through Indonesian Waters. Robert Beckman

The Legal Regime Governing Passage on Routes used for International Navigation through Indonesian Waters. Robert Beckman 42 nd Annual Conference of the Center for Oceans Law & Policy Cooperation and Engagement in the Asia Pacific Region Beijing, China, 24-26 May 2018 Panel 4: Straits Governance The Legal Regime Governing

More information

Geopolitics, International Law and the South China Sea

Geopolitics, International Law and the South China Sea THE TRILATERAL COMMISSION 2012 Tokyo Plenary Meeting Okura Hotel, 21-22 April 2012 EAST ASIA I: GEOPOLITICS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SATURDAY 21 APRIL 2012, ASCOT HALL, B2F, SOUTH WING Geopolitics, International

More information

Thailand s Contribution to the Regional Security By Captain Chusak Chupaitoon

Thailand s Contribution to the Regional Security By Captain Chusak Chupaitoon Thailand s Contribution to the Regional Security By Captain Chusak Chupaitoon Introduction The 9/11 incident and the bombing at Bali on 12 October 2002 shook the world community and sharpened it with the

More information

I. Background: An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is an area of water a certain distance off the coast where countries have sovereign rights to

I. Background: An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is an area of water a certain distance off the coast where countries have sovereign rights to South China Seas Edison Novice Committee I. Background: An Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is an area of water a certain distance off the coast where countries have sovereign rights to economic ventures

More information

I. Is Military Survey a kind of Marine Scientific Research?

I. Is Military Survey a kind of Marine Scientific Research? On Dissection of Disputes Between China and the United States over Military Activities in Exclusive Economic Zone by the Law of the Sea Jin Yongming (Institute of Law, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,

More information

Overview East Asia in 2010

Overview East Asia in 2010 Overview East Asia in 2010 East Asia in 2010 1. Rising Tensions in the Korean Peninsula Two sets of military actions by the Democratic People s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) heightened North-South

More information

In China, a New Political Era Begins

In China, a New Political Era Begins In China, a New Political Era Begins Oct. 19, 2017 Blending the policies of his predecessors, the Chinese president is trying to liberalize with an iron fist. By Matthew Massee The world has changed since

More information

The South China Sea Territorial Disputes in ASEAN-China Relations Aileen S.P. Baviera, University of the Philippines

The South China Sea Territorial Disputes in ASEAN-China Relations Aileen S.P. Baviera, University of the Philippines The South China Sea Territorial Disputes in ASEAN-China Relations Aileen S.P. Baviera, University of the Philippines Recent events call attention to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea as a

More information

The EU in the Asia-Pacific: Crisis Management Roles?

The EU in the Asia-Pacific: Crisis Management Roles? Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies Conference Report The EU in the Asia-Pacific: Crisis Management Roles? Prepared by Peter Roberts The EU in the Asia-Pacific: Crisis Management

More information

and the role of Japan

and the role of Japan 1 Prospect for change in the maritime security situation in Asia and the role of Japan Maritime Security in Southeast and Southwest Asia IIPS International Conference Dec.11-13, 2001 ANA Hotel, Tokyo Masahiro

More information

HARMUN Chair Report. The Question of the South China Sea. Head Chair -William Harding

HARMUN Chair Report. The Question of the South China Sea. Head Chair -William Harding HARMUN Chair Report The Question of the South China Sea Head Chair -William Harding will_harding@student.aishk.edu.hk Introduction Placed in between the Taiwan Strait and the Straits of Malacca Straits

More information

A New Phase in US-China Relations

A New Phase in US-China Relations A New Phase in US-China Relations July 31, 2017 The threat of war on the Korean Peninsula has shifted dynamics between the world s two largest economies. By Jacob L. Shapiro North Korea conducted another

More information

Japanese Perspective

Japanese Perspective Maritime Cooperation:Challenges and Opportunities Japanese Perspective VADM (ret) Hideaki Kaneda (This paper was presented at the Fifth Japan-Australia Track 1.5 Dialogue, co-hosted by the Japan Institute

More information

Hearing on the U.S. Rebalance to Asia

Hearing on the U.S. Rebalance to Asia March 30, 2016 Prepared statement by Sheila A. Smith Senior Fellow for Japan Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on the U.S. Rebalance

More information

TRANSCRIPT. Admiral Patrick Walsh, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet. Media Roundtable September 8, 2010 New Sanno Hotel Tokyo, Japan

TRANSCRIPT. Admiral Patrick Walsh, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet. Media Roundtable September 8, 2010 New Sanno Hotel Tokyo, Japan u.s. embassy-tokyo press office TRANSCRIPT For more information, contact Press Attaché Karen Kelley 3224-5271 (E-mail: KelleyK@state.gov) or Assistant Press Attaché Christopher Quade 3224-5300 (E-mail:

More information

Can the COC Establish a Framework for a Cooperative Mechanism in the South China Sea? Robert Beckman

Can the COC Establish a Framework for a Cooperative Mechanism in the South China Sea? Robert Beckman 9 th South China Sea International Conference: Cooperation for Regional Security & Development 27-28 Nov 2017, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam Session 7: Panel Discussion: Code of Conduct (COC): Substance and

More information

FIGHTING WWII CHAPTERS 36-37

FIGHTING WWII CHAPTERS 36-37 FIGHTING WWII CHAPTERS 36-37 AFTER PEARL HARBOR The U.S. was not prepared Not enough navy vessels German U-boats were destroying ships off the Atlantic coast Hard to send men and supplies Could not fight

More information

Sea of Flames. The Russia-Ukraine possible escalation in the Black and Azov Seas. A work by Fabio Seferi

Sea of Flames. The Russia-Ukraine possible escalation in the Black and Azov Seas. A work by Fabio Seferi Sea of Flames The Russia-Ukraine possible escalation in the Black and Azov Seas A Hybrid Neighbourhood Special Issue Abstract A possible escalation in the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine is mounting

More information

The Growth of the Chinese Military

The Growth of the Chinese Military The Growth of the Chinese Military An Interview with Dennis Wilder The Journal sat down with Dennis Wilder to hear his views on recent developments within the Chinese military including the modernization

More information

The Dispensability of Allies

The Dispensability of Allies The Dispensability of Allies May 17, 2017 Trump brings unpredictability to his talks with Middle East leaders, but some things we already know. By George Friedman U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Turkish

More information

Basic Maritime Zones. Scope. Maritime Zones. Internal Waters (UNCLOS Art. 8) Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone

Basic Maritime Zones. Scope. Maritime Zones. Internal Waters (UNCLOS Art. 8) Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone Basic Maritime Zones Dr Sam Bateman (University of Wollongong, Australia) Scope Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zone Territorial sea baselines Innocent passage Exclusive Economic Zones Rights and duties

More information

CHINESE NATIONALISM AND THE MORAL INFLUENCE. Sun Tzu Explains China s Shaping Operations in the South China Sea

CHINESE NATIONALISM AND THE MORAL INFLUENCE. Sun Tzu Explains China s Shaping Operations in the South China Sea In the past two weeks, Filipino President Duterte has agreed to 13.5 billion dollars in trade deals with China, softened his country s claims to Scarborough Shoal, and called for the expulsion of U.S.

More information

Which High Seas Freedoms Apply in the Exclusive Economic Zone? *

Which High Seas Freedoms Apply in the Exclusive Economic Zone? * Law of the Sea Interest Group American Society of International Law Which High Seas Freedoms Apply in the Exclusive Economic Zone? * Raul Pete Pedrozo ** I. INTRODUCTION. II. COASTAL STATE RIGHTS AND JURISDICTION.

More information

East Asian Maritime Disputes and U.S. Interests. Presentation by Michael McDevitt

East Asian Maritime Disputes and U.S. Interests. Presentation by Michael McDevitt East Asian Maritime Disputes and U.S. Interests Presentation by Michael McDevitt Worlds top ports by total cargo 2012 1. Shanghai, China (ECS) 744 million tons 2. Singapore (SCS) 537.6 3. Tianjin, China

More information

This document is downloaded from DR-NTU, Nanyang Technological University Library, Singapore.

This document is downloaded from DR-NTU, Nanyang Technological University Library, Singapore. This document is downloaded from DR-NTU, Nanyang Technological University Library, Singapore. Title Who governs the South China Sea? Author(s) Rosenberg, David Citation Rosenberg, D. (2016). Who governs

More information

Trade and Security: The Two Sides of US-Indian Relations

Trade and Security: The Two Sides of US-Indian Relations Trade and Security: The Two Sides of US-Indian Relations New Delhi is a valuable partner to Washington on one but not the other. Allison Fedirka August 13, 2018 Trade and Security: The Two Sides of US-Indian

More information

Prepared By: Environmental Preservation and Conservation Committee REVISED:

Prepared By: Environmental Preservation and Conservation Committee REVISED: The Florida Senate PROFESSIONAL STAFF ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC IMPACT STATEMENT (This document is based on the provisions contained in the legislation as of the latest date listed below.) BILL: CS/SB 1856

More information

Prospects for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea after Hague decision

Prospects for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea after Hague decision Prospects for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea after Hague decision by Richard Q. Turcsányi, PhD. On 12 July 2016, the Permanent Arbitration Court in The Hague issued the final decision in the

More information

One Belt, One Road, No Dice

One Belt, One Road, No Dice One Belt, One Road, No Dice Jan. 12, 2017 China s ambitious infrastructure plans have a long way to go to become a gamechanger. By Jacob L. Shapiro In September and October of 2013, Chinese President Xi

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Robert Ross

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Robert Ross CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Robert Ross Episode 88: Are China s New Naval Capabilities a Game Changer? June 19, 2017 Haenle: Bob Ross, thank you very much for being with us today

More information

Asia- Pacific and the missing stability of the Pacific Asia. Stefano Felician Beccari

Asia- Pacific and the missing stability of the Pacific Asia. Stefano Felician Beccari Asia- Pacific Stefano Felician Beccari 2016 and the missing stability of the Pacific Asia EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Asia Pacific in 2015 and in the next years will be a region where political fluidity and

More information

On July 12th, 2016, the Permanent Court of

On July 12th, 2016, the Permanent Court of Revista de Marina Nº 956, pp. 36-41 ISSN 0034-8511 IS CHINA A SEA POWER? Richard Kouyoumdjian Inglis* Abstract Richard Kouyoumdjian seeks to answer the question about if China is or not a Sea Power. After

More information

ASEAN & the South China Sea Disputes

ASEAN & the South China Sea Disputes Asian Studies Centre, St Antony s College University of Oxford China Centre 19-20 October 2017 Session V, Friday 20 th, 11.15-12.45 ASEAN & the South China Sea Disputes Robert Beckman Head, Ocean Law and

More information

Maritime Security in Southeast Asia with special emphasis on the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.

Maritime Security in Southeast Asia with special emphasis on the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. 1 Maritime Security in Southeast Asia with special emphasis on the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. Presentation to the MSU conference on International Cooperation in the War Against Terror in the Asia-Pacific

More information

Assessing China s Land Reclamation in the South China Sea

Assessing China s Land Reclamation in the South China Sea Assessing China s Land Reclamation in the South China Sea By Sukjoon Yoon / Issue Briefings, 4 / 2015 China s unprecedented land reclamation projects have emerged as one of its key strategies in the South

More information

Dr. T.X. Hammes on U.S.-China Relations

Dr. T.X. Hammes on U.S.-China Relations Dr. T.X. Hammes on U.S.-China Relations Interviewed by Rick Berger Dr. T.X. Hammes is a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Center for Strategic Research at National Defense University s Institute for

More information

US Warships in the South China Sea: A Prelude to War?

US Warships in the South China Sea: A Prelude to War? US Warships in the South China Sea: A Prelude to War? By Mark Valencia / Issue Briefings 14 / 2016 As the US Navy increases its presence in the South China Sea in an attempt to maintain US primacy in Asia,

More information

War Gaming: Part I. January 10, 2017 by Bill O Grady of Confluence Investment Management

War Gaming: Part I. January 10, 2017 by Bill O Grady of Confluence Investment Management War Gaming: Part I January 10, 2017 by Bill O Grady of Confluence Investment Management One of the key elements of global hegemony is the ability of a nation to project power. Ideally, this means a potential

More information

International Conference on Maritime Challenges and Market Opportunities August 28, 2017

International Conference on Maritime Challenges and Market Opportunities August 28, 2017 International Conference on Maritime Challenges and Market Opportunities August 28, 2017 John A. Burgess, Professor of Practice Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy A Tale of Two Seas The Arctic and the

More information

Japan s defence and security policy reform and its impact on regional security

Japan s defence and security policy reform and its impact on regional security Japan s defence and security policy reform and its impact on regional security March 22 nd, 2017 Subcommittee on Security and Defense, European Parliament Mission of Japan to the European Union Japan s

More information

Topic 1: South China Sea Dispute. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Topic 1: South China Sea Dispute. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Topic 1: South China Sea Dispute Background: There has been great conflict in the South China Sea, most of which regarding China s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The United Nations Convention on the Law

More information

Engagement, Caution 1

Engagement, Caution 1 Engagement, Caution 1 Yang Yi Opportunity or Not? In 2005, then U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Mullen, announced for the first time the Thousand-Ship Navy (TSN) proposal at an international

More information

Definition of key terms

Definition of key terms Committee: Security Council Issue title: Terriotorial disputes over the South China Sea Submitted by: Stuart Verkek, Deputy President of Security Council Edited by: Kamilla Tóth, President of the General

More information

NATIONAL SOUTHWEST BORDER COUNTERNARCOTICS STRATEGY Unclassified Summary

NATIONAL SOUTHWEST BORDER COUNTERNARCOTICS STRATEGY Unclassified Summary NATIONAL SOUTHWEST BORDER COUNTERNARCOTICS STRATEGY Unclassified Summary INTRODUCTION The harsh climate, vast geography, and sparse population of the American Southwest have long posed challenges to law

More information

p o l i c y q & a An Australian Perspective on U.S. Rebalancing toward Asia

p o l i c y q & a An Australian Perspective on U.S. Rebalancing toward Asia p o l i c y q & a AN INTERVIEW WITH RORY MEDCALF An Australian Perspective on U.S. Rebalancing toward Asia By SAR AH SER IZAWA Published: April 30, 2012 Earlier this month, U.S. Marines arrived in Australia

More information

Chapter 19: Republic To Empire

Chapter 19: Republic To Empire Chapter 19: Republic To Empire Objectives: o We will examine the policies America implemented in their newly conquered territories after the Spanish American War. o We will examine the various changes

More information

Chinese Reactions to Japan s Defence White Paper

Chinese Reactions to Japan s Defence White Paper Chinese Reactions to Japan s Defence White Paper Pranamita Baruah On 2 August 2011, Japanese Diet (Parliament) approved the 37 th Defence White Paper titled Defense of Japan 2011. In analysing the security

More information

The Future of Australia Samuel Alexander Lecture 2014 Wesley College Melbourne 20 May 2014

The Future of Australia Samuel Alexander Lecture 2014 Wesley College Melbourne 20 May 2014 The Future of Australia Samuel Alexander Lecture 2014 Wesley College Melbourne 20 May 2014 I am honoured to be asked to follow a band of notable Australians in giving this Samuel Alexander Lecture for

More information

Coalition Building in ASEAN. Orlando S. Mercado, PhD

Coalition Building in ASEAN. Orlando S. Mercado, PhD Coalition Building in ASEAN Orlando S. Mercado, PhD OUTLINE Present issues concerning ASEAN (focus on South China Sea issue) ASEAN Way evolution, changes, current mechanisms ASEAN Way: a stumbling block

More information

Game Changer in the Maritime Disputes

Game Changer in the Maritime Disputes www.rsis.edu.sg No. 180 18 July 2016 RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical issues and contemporary developments. The

More information

The Smaller and the Bigger Pictures. The Geopolitics of Conflict and Peace in Sri Lanka

The Smaller and the Bigger Pictures. The Geopolitics of Conflict and Peace in Sri Lanka The Smaller and the Bigger Pictures The Geopolitics of Conflict and Peace in Sri Lanka Sri Lanka: the smaller picture Total area : 65,610 sq Km Arabian Sea Malacca Straits and South China Sea Population

More information

South China Sea- An Insight

South China Sea- An Insight South China Sea- An Insight Historical Background China laid claim to the South China Sea (SCS) back in 1947. It demarcated its claims with a U-shaped line made up of eleven dashes on a map, covering most

More information

Impact of India Japan Partnership for Regional Security and Prosperity. Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Center for Asia Studies, Chennai

Impact of India Japan Partnership for Regional Security and Prosperity. Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Center for Asia Studies, Chennai Impact of India Japan Partnership for Regional Security and Prosperity Commodore RS Vasan IN (Retd) Head, Center for Asia Studies, Chennai Strategic and Global partnership in 2006 Vision for Strategic

More information

Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Scott H. Swift Future of Asia Conference Los Angeles, Calif. Sept. 15, 2017 As prepared for delivery

Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Scott H. Swift Future of Asia Conference Los Angeles, Calif. Sept. 15, 2017 As prepared for delivery Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Scott H. Swift Future of Asia Conference Los Angeles, Calif. Sept. 15, 2017 As prepared for delivery Good evening ladies and gentlemen, it s an honor to be here with

More information

Federal Act relating to the Sea, 8 January 1986

Federal Act relating to the Sea, 8 January 1986 Page 1 Federal Act relating to the Sea, 8 January 1986 The Congress of the United Mexican States decrees: TITLE I General Provisions CHAPTER I Scope of application of the Act Article 1 This Act establishes

More information

Diplomatic Coordination. Bonji Ohara The Tokyo Foundation. Quad-Plus Dialogue Denpasar, Indonesia February 1-3, 2015

Diplomatic Coordination. Bonji Ohara The Tokyo Foundation. Quad-Plus Dialogue Denpasar, Indonesia February 1-3, 2015 Diplomatic Coordination Bonji Ohara The Tokyo Foundation Quad-Plus Dialogue Denpasar, Indonesia February 1-3, 2015 Introduction Asian governments and security establishments presume that the United States

More information

The Nomocracy Pursuit of the Maritime Silk Road On Legal Guarantee of State s Marine Rights and Interests

The Nomocracy Pursuit of the Maritime Silk Road On Legal Guarantee of State s Marine Rights and Interests Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering 6 (2016) 123-128 doi 10.17265/2159-5879/2016.02.007 D DAVID PUBLISHING The Nomocracy Pursuit of the Maritime Silk Road On Legal Guarantee of State s Marine Rights

More information

Committee Introduction. Background Information

Committee Introduction. Background Information Committee: Disarmament and International Security (DISEC) Agenda: Peaceful yet effective solutions to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea Written by: 정윤철, 박진원 Committee Introduction The Disarmament

More information

Militarization of the South China Sea

Militarization of the South China Sea PASMUN VII 2016 GENERAL ASSEMBLY FIRST COMMITTEE DISARMAMENT & INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Militarization of the South China Sea Chair - Jessie Wu Pacific American School Model United Nations VII Annual Session

More information

Adam Liff Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations, Indiana University

Adam Liff Assistant Professor of East Asian International Relations, Indiana University Video Transcript for Contemporary Security Challenges to Japan Online at http://spice.fsi.stanford.edu/multimedia/contemporary-security-challenges-japan Adam Liff Assistant Professor of East Asian International

More information

Third Session ROYAL MOROCCAN NAVY: NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR BETTER MARITIME SECURITY AWARENESS" Captain Abdelkrim MAALOUF

Third Session ROYAL MOROCCAN NAVY: NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR BETTER MARITIME SECURITY AWARENESS Captain Abdelkrim MAALOUF ROYAL MOROCCAN NAVY: NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR BETTER MARITIME SECURITY AWARENESS" Captain Abdelkrim MAALOUF Head of Division at Royal Moroccan Navy HQ Admiral, distinguished audience, It is an honor and a

More information

The Law of the Sea Convention

The Law of the Sea Convention The Law of the Sea Convention The Convention remains a key piece of unfinished treaty business for the United States. Past Administrations (Republican and Democratic), the U.S. military, and relevant industry

More information

TESTIMONY OF ADMIRAL ROBERT PAPP COMMANDANT, U.S. COAST GUARD ON ACCESSION TO THE 1982 LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION

TESTIMONY OF ADMIRAL ROBERT PAPP COMMANDANT, U.S. COAST GUARD ON ACCESSION TO THE 1982 LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION Commandant United States Coast Guard 2100 Second Street, S.W. Washington, DC 20593-0001 Staff Symbol: CG-0921 Phone: (202) 372-3500 FAX: (202) 372-2311 TESTIMONY OF ADMIRAL ROBERT PAPP COMMANDANT, U.S.

More information

OVERVIEW. Introduction Implementation Current Issues and Concerns Future Issues and Concerns Prospects for the Future

OVERVIEW. Introduction Implementation Current Issues and Concerns Future Issues and Concerns Prospects for the Future PANEL 4: STRAITS GOVERNANCE CONTEMPORARY ISSUES ON PASSAGE THROUGH ARCHIPELAGIC STRAITS AND SEA LANES 42 ND ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE CENTER FOR OCEANS LAW AND POLICY: COOPERATION AND ENGAGEMENT IN THE

More information

Intelligence brief 19 March 2014

Intelligence brief 19 March 2014 Intelligence brief 19 March 2014 Maritime insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea Summary 1. Maritime insecurity incorporates a range of criminal activities, including piracy, smuggling and illegal fishing. 2.

More information

Neutrality and War (Delivered October 13, 1939)

Neutrality and War (Delivered October 13, 1939) Neutrality and War (Delivered October 13, 1939) Tonight, I speak again to the people of this country who are opposed to the United States entering the war which is now going on in Europe. We are faced

More information

13 FEBRUARY Framework for the Use of Force

13 FEBRUARY Framework for the Use of Force OPERATION SOVEREIGN BORDERS: CHARTING THE LEGAL ISSUES CENTRE FOR MILITARY AND SECURITY LAW PUBLIC SEMINAR Comments by Associate Professor David Letts Co-Director, Centre for Military and Security Law

More information

US Defence Secretary's Visit to India

US Defence Secretary's Visit to India INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC STUDIES web: www.issi.org.pk phone: +92-920-4423, 24 fax: +92-920-4658 Issue Brief (Views expressed in the brief are those of the author, and do not represent those of ISSI) US Defence

More information

Leading Power: A Look at Japan vs. China

Leading Power: A Look at Japan vs. China Leading Power: A Look at Japan vs. China Feb. 6, 2017 A comparison of the two countries economies reveals how Japan will emerge as East Asia s dominant power. Originally produced on Jan. 30, 2017 for Mauldin

More information

China s Response to the Permanent Court of Arbitration s Ruling on the South China Sea

China s Response to the Permanent Court of Arbitration s Ruling on the South China Sea China s Response to the Permanent Court of Arbitration s Ruling on the South China Sea Shinji Yamaguchi Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies The decision awarded to the Philippines

More information

EUROSUR. Protecting the Schengen external borders. Protecting migrants' lives

EUROSUR. Protecting the Schengen external borders. Protecting migrants' lives EUROSUR Protecting the Schengen external borders Protecting migrants' lives European Border Surveillance System (EUROSUR) in a nutshell A multipurpose system to prevent cross-border crime & irregular migration

More information

The Philippines Criticizes China

The Philippines Criticizes China The Philippines Criticizes China Feb. 24, 2017 The honeymoon phase of the Philippines opening to China is over. By Jacob L. Shapiro China s commerce minister canceled a planned trip to the Philippines

More information

NATO After Libya. july/ august2o11. Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The Atlantic Alliance in Austere Times. Volume 9o Number 4

NATO After Libya. july/ august2o11. Anders Fogh Rasmussen. The Atlantic Alliance in Austere Times. Volume 9o Number 4 july/ august2o11 NATO After Libya The Atlantic Alliance in Austere Times Volume 9o Number 4 The contents of Foreign Affairs are copyrighted. 2o11 Council on Foreign Relations, Inc. All rights reserved.

More information

Geography Advanced Unit 3: Contested Planet

Geography Advanced Unit 3: Contested Planet Pearson Edexcel GCE Geography Advanced Unit 3: Contested Planet June 2016 Advanced Information Paper Reference 6GE03/01 You do not need any other materials. Information Candidates must not take this pre-released

More information

The Cold War Heats Up. Chapter AP US History

The Cold War Heats Up. Chapter AP US History + The Cold War Heats Up Chapter 37-38 AP US History + Goal Statement After studying this chapter students should be able to: Explain how the policies of both the United States and the Soviet Union led

More information

AD-AO372 ANJCR SAAMOCACFG5/ STRATEGIC ASPECTS OF ASIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN THE 1980S,(U) JAN AS G J PAUKER UNCLASSIFIED RAND/P-657A NL 1',

AD-AO372 ANJCR SAAMOCACFG5/ STRATEGIC ASPECTS OF ASIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN THE 1980S,(U) JAN AS G J PAUKER UNCLASSIFIED RAND/P-657A NL 1', AD-AO372 ANJCR SAAMOCACFG5/ STRATEGIC ASPECTS OF ASIAN-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN THE 1980S,(U) JAN AS G J PAUKER UNCLASSIFIED RAND/P-657A NL 1',10000 00 END STRATEGIC ASPECTS OF ASIAN~-AMERICAN RELATIONS IN

More information

East Asia in the post Cold War era has been the world s most

East Asia in the post Cold War era has been the world s most Journal of East Asian Studies 3:3 (2003), 351 376 The U.S.-China Peace: Great Power Politics, Spheres of Influence, and the Peace of East Asia Robert S. Ross East Asia in the post Cold War era has been

More information

Unit 28 ( ) American Nation Textbook Pages

Unit 28 ( ) American Nation Textbook Pages Unit 28 (1945-1991) American Nation Textbook Pages 809-839 1 1. The Cold War Begins After World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union became rivals. They competed for influence around the world

More information

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Wang Yizhou

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST. Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Wang Yizhou CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST Host: Paul Haenle Guest: Wang Yizhou Episode 3: China s Evolving Foreign Policy, Part I November 19, 2013 You're listening to the Carnegie Tsinghua "China in the World" podcast,

More information

THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS. US HISTORY Chapter 15 Section 2

THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS. US HISTORY Chapter 15 Section 2 THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS US HISTORY Chapter 15 Section 2 THE EARLY COLD WAR YEARS CONTAINING COMMUNISM MAIN IDEA The Truman Doctrine offered aid to any nation resisting communism; The Marshal Plan aided

More information

PERTH COUNTER-PIRACY CONFERENCE JULY 2012 CHAIRMAN S FINAL STATEMENT OF THE MEETING

PERTH COUNTER-PIRACY CONFERENCE JULY 2012 CHAIRMAN S FINAL STATEMENT OF THE MEETING PERTH COUNTER-PIRACY CONFERENCE 15-17 JULY 2012 CHAIRMAN S FINAL STATEMENT OF THE MEETING [This is a personal, informal report of our meeting which I offer for consideration by the Australian Government

More information

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: An Alignment of Policies for Common Benefit Ambassador Anil Wadhwa Vivekananda International Foundation

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: An Alignment of Policies for Common Benefit Ambassador Anil Wadhwa Vivekananda International Foundation The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: An Alignment of Policies for Common Benefit Ambassador Anil Wadhwa Vivekananda International Foundation Quad-Plus Dialogue Tokyo, Japan March 4-6, 2018 The Quadrilateral

More information

Law of the Sea. CDR James Kraska, JAGC, USN Howard S. Levie Chair of Operational Law

Law of the Sea. CDR James Kraska, JAGC, USN Howard S. Levie Chair of Operational Law Law of the Sea CDR James Kraska, JAGC, USN Howard S. Levie Chair of Operational Law Enduring Forward Presence Deterrence Sea Control Power Projection Expanding Maritime Security Humanitarian Assistance

More information

Were Japan s Attempts at Regional Expansionism and its Attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 Destined to Fail?

Were Japan s Attempts at Regional Expansionism and its Attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 Destined to Fail? History of International Politics Were Japan s Attempts at Regional Expansionism and its Attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 Destined to Fail? The question this paper will try to answer is as follows:

More information

Letter from President Fillmore asking Japan. American ships to stop for supplies safety reasons

Letter from President Fillmore asking Japan. American ships to stop for supplies safety reasons Chapter 19-21 Introduction Japan 1853 Not open to trading with other countries Commodore Matthew Perry went to Japan with a small fleet of warships (Gunboat Diplomacy) Letter from President Fillmore asking

More information

Multilayered Security Cooperation Through the New Type of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance

Multilayered Security Cooperation Through the New Type of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance DIPLOMACY Multilayered Security Cooperation Through the New Type of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance On August 31, 2017, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo held a Japan-UK Summit Meeting with the Rt Hon Theresa May

More information

ALON. Ocean Wave. Issue Topics of interest relating to the Philippine Maritime Industry and Shipping. GULF of ADEN

ALON. Ocean Wave. Issue Topics of interest relating to the Philippine Maritime Industry and Shipping. GULF of ADEN ALON Issue 1 2013 Ocean Wave Topics of interest relating to the Philippine Maritime Industry and Shipping Filipino Seafarers High Risk Area Gulf of Aden and ship owners contractual liability under the

More information

Michael McDevitt ALLIANCE RELATIONSHIPS

Michael McDevitt ALLIANCE RELATIONSHIPS ALLIANCE RELATIONSHIPS 169 ALLIANCE RELATIONSHIPS Michael McDevitt Issue: Asia is in a transition phase where countries are disinclined to adopt threat-based approaches to enhancing security, preferring

More information

India's Paramilitary Forces

India's Paramilitary Forces India's Paramilitary Forces Creation of paramilitary forces usually reflects the shifting security situation in a country, in other words countries whose police forces are unable to adequately tackle and

More information

Japan and the U.S.: It's Time to Rethink Your Relationship

Japan and the U.S.: It's Time to Rethink Your Relationship 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Japan and the U.S.: It's Time to Rethink Your Relationship By Kyle Mizokami - September 27, 2012 - Issei

More information

The Strategic Context of the Paris Attacks

The Strategic Context of the Paris Attacks The Strategic Context of the Paris Attacks Nov. 16. 2015 The terrorist attacks in Paris indicate a new level of sophistication in Islamic State s planning and coordination. By George Friedman The attacks

More information

IS THIS THE TIME TO SEEK A REGIONAL INCIDENTS-AT-SEA AGREEMENT?

IS THIS THE TIME TO SEEK A REGIONAL INCIDENTS-AT-SEA AGREEMENT? CSS STRATEGIC BACKGROUND PAPER 13/ 2013 THE SEARCH FOR MARITIME SECURITY IN THE ASIA PACIFIC: SOME IMPORTANT QUESTIONS INTRODUCTION Tensions have risen in recent months in both the South China Sea and

More information