USA Update 2017 American Politics in the Age of Trump

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1 American Politics in the Age of Trump Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München you can download this presentation at

2 Trumptastic Voyage The Simpsons, 2015 Homer is hired to cheer at a Donald Trump campaign rally. When he comes close to Trump s infamous hairdo, Homer is pulled into a strange wonderland. 2

Introduction: The Extreme President controversy insults, racism, sexism, contradictions rejects standards of political rhetoric anti-establishment political outsider accuses both parties as corrupt

3 Introduction: The Extreme President controversy insults, racism, sexism, contradictions rejects standards of political rhetoric anti-establishment political outsider accuses both parties as corrupt and ineffective drain the swamp of lobbyists and established politicians right-wing populist anti-immigration, anti-muslim rhetoric economic populist blames globalization for loss of industrial jobs foreign policy isolationist America First apocalyptic vision and grandiose claims paints dark picture of US on brink of destruction claims only he can make America great again Donald Trump is the most controversial president in recent history. 3

4 White Backlash The Presidential Election of

5 Unpopular Choices both Trump and Clinton were deeply unpopular candidates for many voters, a choice for lesser evil why was Trump unpopular? extreme candidate with extreme positions and extreme rhetoric why was Clinton unpopular? establishment candidate embarrassing leaks and investigations Trump profited from his supporters extreme frustration with the status quo Both Clinton and Trump are deeply unpopular: many voters voted not for one, but against the other. 5

6 3 a.m. The Simpsons, 2016 Marge and Homer Simpsons turn on the TV to decide whether to vote for Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. 6

7 The Presidential Election of (48%) 306 (46%) 7

8 The Presidential Election of (51,1%) 206 (47,2%) 8

9 How Did Trump Win? Trump won all of the traditionally Republican states in the South and West key swing states Florida and North Carolina many normally Democratic states in the rust belt Midwest several of Trumps wins were very narrow, some of Clinton s very big Clinton won almost three million more votes than Trump nation-wide most of that advantage came from California and New York Trump carried much of the industrial Mid-West

Who Voted for Trump and Clinton? Trump did extremely well among older, white, working-class voters, esp. men esp. in economically depressed regions, i.e. the rust belt very angry about current state of US the Obama Coalition did not support Clinton enough she won among minorities, young voters, esp.

10 Who Voted for Trump and Clinton? Trump did extremely well among older, white, working-class voters, esp. men esp. in economically depressed regions, i.e. the rust belt very angry about current state of US the Obama Coalition did not support Clinton enough she won among minorities, young voters, esp. women, highly educated white voters, but not as much as Obama enthusiasm gap lower turnout deep division in American society Trump won white, rural, traditional, religious America Clinton won the multi-ethnic, urban, modern, secular America Trump s promise to make America great again is a mixture of populist resentments and nostalgia. 10

11 Trump s America 11

12 Clinton s America 12

13 What Now? The Politics of the Trump Administration 13

Trump s Administration and Cabinet Trump s cabinet and inner circle: former generals wealthy business leaders right-wing politicians some normal Republicans family members is putting business leaders

14 Trump s Administration and Cabinet Trump s cabinet and inner circle: former generals wealthy business leaders right-wing politicians some normal Republicans family members is putting business leaders on the cabinet draining the swamp? conflict of interest between Trump business empire and administration it appears Trump wants to implement most of his radical rhetoric Trump promised to drain the Washington swamp of lobbyists and special interests. Instead, he s recruiting wealthy business leaders into his cabinet. 14

Immigration, the Border Wall, and the Muslim Ban Trump ran on a radical anti- (illegal) immigration, anti-muslim message 15 denounced Mexican immigrants deportation of all illegal immigrants border

15 Immigration, the Border Wall, and the Muslim Ban Trump ran on a radical anti- (illegal) immigration, anti-muslim message 15 denounced Mexican immigrants deportation of all illegal immigrants border wall paid by Mexico temporary ban on Muslim immigration and refugees as president talks about deporting only 2-3 million executive order to build the wall limited effect Republicans want to use existing legislation to expand border fencing suspension of refugee program and ban on US entry from seven Islamic countries legal battles The US-Mexican border is 3,145km long - a border wall would rival the Great Wall of China.

Coming to Homerica ( The Simpsons, 2009) In this episode, the people of Ogdenville immigrate to Springfield when their barley-based economy crashes.

16 Coming to Homerica ( The Simpsons, 2009) In this episode, the people of Ogdenville immigrate to Springfield when their barley-based economy crashes. In Springfield, they find work as day laborers, domestic servants and other low-paid jobs. In in satirical twist, the Ogdenvillians are of Norwegian (not Mexican or other Hispanic) ancestry. 16

$state wants to remove regulations and obstacles on coal and oil industries more offshore drilling and fracking cancel Obama s clean power plan could withdraw the US from Paris climate accords$

17 Environmental Policy and Climate Change Trump rejects most environmental regulation as economically harmful EPA critic Scott Pruitt as EPA director Oil industry CEO Rex Tillerson as secretary of state wants to remove regulations and obstacles on coal and oil industries more offshore drilling and fracking cancel Obama s clean power plan could withdraw the US from Paris climate accords long-term consequences Scott Pruitt, Trump s designated EPA director, is a notorious climate change denier and has fought the EPA in court. 17

Trade and Industry Trump s Protectionism Trump blames imports for loss of industrial job in US from China, Mexico, (Germany, Japan) rejects multilateral trade agreements TPP, TTIP, NAFTA wants to

18 Trade and Industry Trump s Protectionism Trump blames imports for loss of industrial job in US from China, Mexico, (Germany, Japan) rejects multilateral trade agreements TPP, TTIP, NAFTA wants to negotiate more favorable trade deals with other countries threatens with import tariffs ( border tax ), diplomatic trouble pressures US companies to invest in US pledges infrastructure investments roads and bridges unlikely to bring back industrial jobs automatization is largely to blame Ruins of the Packard automobile factory, Detroit 18

Foreign Policy and National Security America First campaign motto isolationist slogan from 1940s American economic interests over global responsibility little interest in UN and global rule of law

19 Foreign Policy and National Security America First campaign motto isolationist slogan from 1940s American economic interests over global responsibility little interest in UN and global rule of law limited interest in Middle East and antiterrorism efforts prioritizes economic rivalry over geostrategic alliances criticism of European NATO partners pressure to pay more for common defense particularly critical of China sees China as primary economic and geostrategic opponent Trump seems willing to disrupt long-term American commitments and alliances for short-term advantages. 19

20 Trump Prepares Saturday Night Live, 2016 Actor Alex Baldwin impersonates Donald Trump. He meets with a general to discuss strategy against the terrorist organization ISIS (known in Germany as Islamic Stats IS). In his campaign, Trump claimed to have a secret plan to destroy ISIS. 20

Trump and Russia during campaign, Trump praised Putin as a strong leader Trump may seek closer ties with Russia despite conflicts over Syria and Ukraine key Republicans reject a pro-russian turn so

21 Trump and Russia during campaign, Trump praised Putin as a strong leader Trump may seek closer ties with Russia despite conflicts over Syria and Ukraine key Republicans reject a pro-russian turn so far, actual policy is unclear CIA concluded that Russian hackers deliberately helped Trump wiki-leaking Democratic documents Trump has dismissed Russian meddling in US politics as largely irrelevant Critics claim that Russia helped Trump win the election in order to gain an easily manipulated ally in the White House. 21

22 Donald Trump Christmas Saturday Night Live, 2016 On Christmas Day, Donald and Ivanka get a surprise visit from Vladimir Putin. Note: The Manchurian Candidate is a classic American movie about a US politician who is a Chinese sleeper agent. 22

Trump and Republicans in Congress Trump has a Republican majority in Congress - crucial to domestic politics but Republicans are deeply divided and not necessarily in agreement with Trump Trump is no

23 Trump and Republicans in Congress Trump has a Republican majority in Congress - crucial to domestic politics but Republicans are deeply divided and not necessarily in agreement with Trump Trump is no ideological conservative several points of conflict with Trump: Russia, trade policy, government spending points of agreement tax cuts, immigration, environment Trump will position himself against Republicans if it suits him Paul Ryan (Speaker of the House), Trump, and Mitch McConnell (Senate Majority Leader) 23

Conclusion: An Age of Uncertainty since World War 2, the US has been the anchor of the world s security and economic structure now, the US may become just a powerful country pursuing its own

24 Conclusion: An Age of Uncertainty since World War 2, the US has been the anchor of the world s security and economic structure now, the US may become just a powerful country pursuing its own interests Trump believes in unpredictability no other power is ready to fill that leadership role European Union is divided, Germany unwilling or unable to lead China is an authoritarian state with increasing economic problems Russia s economy is much too small we may see a return to a multipolar world, a struggle of great powers for dominance Trump s presidency may accelerate that President Trump is a heavy blow to stability and certainty in American and world politics. 24

25 you can download this presentation at 25

USA Update 2018 America in the Age of Trump. Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München you can download this presentation at

USA Update 2018 America in the Age of Trump. Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München you can download this presentation at America in the Age of Trump Dr. Markus Hünemörder, LMU München you can download this presentation at www.amerikahaus.de/usaupdate How Did It Happen? Trump s Presidential Victory in 2016 2 Trump s Controversial