Prime Minister Szydło resigns, Morawiecki to take over

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Prime Minister Szydło resigns, Morawiecki to take over"

Lester Watkins
6 years ago
Views:

7th December 2017 Prime Minister Szydło resigns, Morawiecki to take over This evening, ruling PiS party spokesperson Beata Mazurek has informed that Prime Minister Beata Szydło has resigned.

Sources within the PiS party suggest that, officially, changes in the cabinet will be implemented in January.

1 7th December 2017 Prime Minister Szydło resigns, Morawiecki to take over This evening, ruling PiS party spokesperson Beata Mazurek has informed that Prime Minister Beata Szydło has resigned. The Political Committee of the ruling PiS party has proposed the candidacy of Mateusz Morawiecki, for Prime Minister. On Tuesday, a vote of confidence is meant to take place in the Sejm. Sources within the PiS party suggest that, officially, changes in the cabinet will be implemented in January. Morawiecki Up to now, Morawiecki held the function of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Development. He is responsible for Poland s long-term growth plan the Strategy for Responsible Development also known as the Morawiecki Plan. Background: Polish banker, economist, former President of Bank Zachodni WBK (Santander Group) Born in June 1968, son of famed anti-communist activist and politician Kornel Morawiecki (currently MP) Holds degrees from History (Wrocław University), Business Administration, and the Central Connecticut State University MBA from Wrocław School of Economics, post graduate degrees from European Law (Hamburg) and Advanced European Studies (Basel University)

2 Joined Bank Zachodni WBK in 1998, became President in 2007; during his first three years, the bank became one of the largest universal banks in Poland Took part in negotiations of Poland s accession to the European Union His only prior experience as an elected official has been as Member of a Regional Assembly ( ) Speaks English, German, and Russian As of 2010, he was a member of the Economic Council by Prime Minister Donald Tusk - Civic Platform Government Political Overview and Achievements: Up to now - Economic Overlord of the Government with a significant concentration of power Seeks an ideological victory over liberal economics Open to new foreign investments on the conditions of technology transfer, boosting innovation, and promoting exports Prepared a package of bills known as the Constitution for Business, easing procedures and stimulating investment mechanisms for entrepreneurs Improved tax collection (especially VAT) - tax income was higher by 14.6% in October than at the same time last year Seeks to repolonise key sectors of Poland s economy, most notably banking, energy, and the media Reasoning In the written decision of the PiS Political Committee, it was underlined that great success was achieved in many areas of life in Poland social, economic, cultural, internal and external security and foreign affairs. The document cited the changes and evolutions of internal and international politics as the reason for the change of Prime Minister. PiS politicians have argued in the past days that while Szydło took care of political affairs, the government now needs to focus on the economy and growth, with Morawiecki playing a more technical role. Still, commentators have suggested that PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński believed that Szydło failed to

3 provide sufficient momentum in spearheading key reforms. The internal conflict with President Andrzej Duda, following his July vetoes of two judiciary reforms, proved to be a catalyst for this reshuffle. Effect on voters PM Szydło had very high public support ratings in recent months. For many PiS voters, the decision to change the Prime Minister was a surprise. Following the announcement this evening, some voters are bound to be perplexed and disappointed in the fact that little explanation was publicly provided by Kaczyński. Morawiecki is also bound to appeal to a different voter base than Szydło. Szydło won the election by building the narrative of representing the common Pole. Morawiecki, meanwhile, has more appeal towards the business-orientated middle class. It remains to be seen, which Ministers remain in the current cabinet, as some of them act as a major motivation for PiS voters. Nevertheless, PiS is currently enjoying record-high levels of support, and Prime Minister Morawiecki is not likely to change that any time soon. Szydło During this evening s press briefing, Mazurek indicated that Szydło will remain in government and have an important function. Certain journalists are claiming that Szydło will become a Deputy Prime Minister responsible for social affairs. Others have suggested, albeit the minority, that Szydło will run for the Mayor of Warsaw in the upcoming local elections. By critics, Szydło was seen as an executor of Kaczyński s political strategy. What some saw as being calm and collected others perceived as uninvolved and uninspired. Still, her legacy is likely to remain positive due to the enormous social success of the 500+ family support programme. Szydło will undoubtedly remain involved in politics, so as not to waste the public support she galvanizes. Jarosław Kaczyński

4 Previous speculations suggested that PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński considered chairing the Council of Ministers. This scenario would not have been unprecedented. During the previous PiS government, Kaczyński replaced Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz. Many party members expressed their support for Kaczyński taking over as Prime Minister. After all, it would be natural for the party leader to hold this position. Many factors may have influenced the decision to nominate Morawiecki. Firstly, Kaczyński feels best a strategist, who prefers to create broad policy. Secondly, albeit being a respected politician, who guaranteed the party s electoral success, Kaczyński does not rank highly in popularity polls. Thirdly, sources suggest that Kaczyński s health has recently deteriorated, which convinced him and the party leadership that he would not have the required stamina to be Prime Minister. Timing The timing of the government reshuffle announcement is certainly no coincidence. In light of the opposition PO s motion of noconfidence, many believed that PiS would not attempt a reshuffle, as it would prove the opposition's argument. The opposition has not succeeded in overtaking the public debate. PiS has managed to portray the motion as a political "waste of time". Conflict with the President The conflict between President Duda and Kaczyński escalated since July It was then, that the first time the President broke party lines, vetoing two key judiciary reforms. In later stages, the conflict exasperated to specific members of the Council of Ministers, as Duda sought to increase his influence on foreign and defence policy. Speculations have been made that, should a government reshuffle take place, changes would be made in respective ministries. Most notably, Duda is conflicted with Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, Defence Minister Antoni Macierewicz, and Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski. The incoming changes in the cabinet will undoubtedly address some of these tensions. Formally, it is the President that has to accept a new shape of the government.

5 His new relationship with Morawiecki as Prime Minister likely to be portrayed as a 'new opening' for the structure of relations between Duda and PiS. Ongoing reforms Currently, the Sejm is in the final stages of discussing controversial draft judiciary bills proposed by President Duda. It can be expected that a vote will take place on Friday, the last day of this parliamentary session. An announcement of a government reshuffle at this moment can guarantee two outcomes. Firstly, the media and the public will be preoccupied with the announced government changes. Secondly, the details of the agreement reached between Duda and Kaczyński are not clear, but one can assume that they include changes in the current government. Resultantly, Duda is not likely to withdraw or veto the judiciary bills. Furthermore, the party will also want to secure the President s support towards the electoral law reforms. Opposition The opposition tried to influence the narrative of the government reshuffle in a bid to boost its position. Still, Thursday s announcement reaffirmed that PiS holds the upper hand. It remains to be seen how the opposition reacts to the situation, however, changes in its strategy and structure may be possible - especially for PO. Consequences Many questions remain as to the shape of personal changes that Morawiecki will make. Mazurek indicated that foreign affairs, and the perception of Poland abroad, played a big role in the decision. This suggests that Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski will also lose his position. Many have suggested that Duda will receive more control over Foreign Affairs - a current presidential minister may take over as Minister of Foreign Affairs

6 The Finance and Development Ministries will see a change of leadership. Other structural changes, such as the dissolution of the Digitization Ministry and the Merger of the Environment and Energy Ministries are likely. The Minister of Infrastructure and Construction Andrzej Adamczyk is also likely to lose his position. In his appointments, Morawiecki is likely to put emphasis on people he has previously worked in - some of them not always deeply involved in politics and not affiliated with the ruling PiS party. Other appointments will be purely political, seeking to stabilize the conflict with President Duda and take into account internal tensions of the United Right. For Morawiecki, it will be key to strike a right balance between internal party politics and functionality. PM Morawiecki and the EU Morawiecki is seen by many as the only PiS politician who can repair Poland s relations with the EU institutions and member states alike. Poland is currently conflicted on many fronts with Brussels: over the admittance of refugees, over the rule of law and judiciary reforms, logging in the Białowieża forest, the posted workers directive, and more. Moreover, as Brexit looms above the bloc, Poland is facing severe funding cuts after The above aspects were meant to have an important impact on the PiS leadership s decision to propose Morawiecki for the Premiership. Sources from Brussels suggest that a sigh of relief could be heard in the European Commission after it became certain that it would be Morawiecki, not Kaczyński, who would lead the Polish government. Morawiecki, in comparison to Szydło for instance, personally knows many commissioners such as Frans Timmermans, Valdis Dombrovskis who is responsible for the euro and financial services, Oettinger who takes care of the budget, and Moscovici managing taxes and customs among other issue. He also has a far less hostile relationship with Council President Donald Tusk and the Polish Commissioner Elżbieta Bieńkowska. While a U-turn in Poland s policy vis a vis Brussels is unlikely, Morawiecki is set to be a far more moderate negotiator than Szydło, and one that EU

7 officials feel more comfortable with. Next week, on Thursday and Friday, Morawiecki will have the chance to meet EU leaders at a summit in Brussels.

How will the EU presidency play out during Poland's autumn parliamentary election?

How will the EU presidency play out during Poland's autumn parliamentary election? Aleks Szczerbiak DISCUSSION PAPERS On July 1 Poland took over the European Union (EU) rotating presidency for the first