French citizens elected Emmanuel Macron as their new President yesterday. This election

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1 French citizens elected Emmanuel Macron as their new President yesterday. This election has been exceptional in many ways, and could steadily move France into a new era politically. This is a crucial year for Europe, with voters in the Netherlands, Germany, and elsewhere also going to the polls. This DeHavilland EU briefing takes a first look at the results and potential consequences of this election. The clear overall message from the results is that Emmanuel Macron has won by a clear landslide, taking two-thirds of the votes and winning in all but two of France's electoral departments. More than 90% of voters in Paris chose to support his En Marche! movement. Having won the first round two weeks ago by some three percent, polling suggests that Macron benefited from support from those DeHavilland Information Services Ltd

2 who had earlier voted for Benoît Hamon and, to a lesser extent, François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Although the 33.94% of the vote that Marine Le Pen received is a considerably better showing than the 17.8% that her father managed in 2002, the National Front struggled to pick up large numbers of votes outside of areas where it has been traditionally strong, in the deindustrialised north and rural southeast of France. Furthermore, the fact that Le Pen only managed to gain an additional 3 million votes in the run-off round compared to the first round suggests that her divisive rhetoric was offputting to those other than the FN's core supporters. Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!) % Marine Le Pen (National Front) % The results follow the trend set by the other national elections held in Europe this year. Leaders in Brussels and across the continent will be pleased to see a liberal, vocally pro-eu politician move in to the Élysée Palace, just as they were to see centrist, mainstream parties hold power in the Netherlands and Bulgaria. Despite many in the media billing 2017 as the year that could spell the end for the EU in its current form, support for Europe at least in political terms appears to be, if anything, stronger. Another way that the French election mirrored that in the Netherlands is the collapse in support for the incumbent, centre-left party. In the first round of voting the Socialist Party took just 2.3 million votes, a huge drop of 77% compared with their winning performance in If the takeaway point today is Macron's decisive victory, in future this election may be remembered for being the first in the Fifth Republic in which it was two insurgents who made it through to the final round to fight for the French presidency. Emmanuel Macron (EM) % Marine Le Pen (FN) % François Fillon (LR) % Jean-Luc Mélenchon (FI) % Benoît Hamon (PS) % Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DLF) - 4.7% Jean Lassalle (Résistons!) % Philippe Poutou (NPA) % François Asselineau (UPR) % Nathalie Arthaud (LO) % Jacques Cheminade (S&P) % DeHavilland Information Services Ltd

3 Reactions in France Emmanuel Macron - Speaking to supporters after his election as President was confirmed, Mr Macron remarked: Tonight you won, France won. Everyone told us it was impossible, but they don't know France. He also said: I know the divisions in our nation, which have led some to vote for the extremes. I respect them. He added: I know the anger, the anxiety, the doubts that very many of you have also expressed. It's my responsibility to hear them I will work to recreate the link between Europe and its peoples, between Europe and citizens. François Bayrou, the leader of Mouvement Démocrate (MoDem), a party allied to Emmanuel Macron s En Marche! said: everyone was betting on a desesperate France. By chosing the yougest candidate in the 5 th Republic, the youngest of the most prominent Heads of State, the French are sending a message. Marine Le Pen Stressing that the French have voted for the continuity, she praised a historic and massive result in favour of her party which will become the first opposition force to the President-elect. She noted that the first round of the Presidential election had confirmed a major breakdown of the French political landscape and that the second round reorganises this landscape around two major forces: patriots and globalists. She concluded that she would hold the reigns of a new political formation in view of the campaign for the legislative election. Les Républicains - Commenting on the outcome of the election, François Baroin, the leader of the legislative elections campaign for the Républicains, stressed that in the runoff, 55% of the French voters have not felt represented by either candidate. Without a shadow of a doubt, I will be in the opposition and will be in charge of leading the legislative campaign in partnership with the [Union des Démocrates et Indépendants (UDI)], he added. Les Insoumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the political movement Les Insoumis said that tonight the worst five-year term was put to an end. He welcomed the outcome of the election which saw a massive rejection of the far right, which is contrary to France s Republican identity. Mr Mélenchon further stressed that Marine Le Pen was actually ranked third, following Emmanuel Macron and the abstention or blank or invalid ballots. He called for a positive choice ahead of the legislative election. Our resistance can win the battle and I will contribute myself with all my energy, he concluded. Parti Socialiste - Jean-Christophe Cambadélis remarked that Emmanuel Macron s victory was a success for the Republic. Francois Hollande - The result confirms that a very large majority of our fellow citizens wanted to unite around the values of the Republic and show their attachment to the European Union. DeHavilland Information Services Ltd

4 Reactions in Europe Council President Donald Tusk Congratulations Emmanuel Macron. Congratulations to French people for choosing Liberty, Equality and Fraternity over tyranny of fake news. In a subsequent statement, he also said: With you as President, I am confident that France will continue to contribute constructively in solving our common challenges and maintaining our unity. France is essential for Europe, as Europe is for France. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Happy that the French have chosen a European future. Together for a stronger and fairer Europe. European Parliament President Antonio Tajani Congratulations to Emmanuel Macron Counting on France to stay at Europe's heart, changing our Union together to bring it closer to citizens. German Chancellor Angela Merkel s spokesman, Steffen Seibert Congratulations, Emmanuel Macron. Your victory is a victory for a strong and united Europe and for French- German friendship. UK Prime Minister Theresa May The PM warmly congratulates Emmanuel Macron on his success and looks forward to working with him on a wide range of shared priorities. Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni Hurrah Macron President! There is hope for Europe! Polish Prime Minister Beata Szydło welcomed the election of Emmanuel Macron and offered him an inviation to visit Poland. As was the case with François Hollande, Emmanuel Macron was elected President rather as an opposition to his rival, rather than on the strength of his political manifesto. In the case of Hollande in 2012, the French elected him against Nicolas Sarkozy. In the case of Emmanuel Macron, the French seem to have been willing to abandon the traditional bipolarisation between left-wing and right-wing politics. In line with this logic and bearing in mind the tradition that, following the Presidential election, French voters usually grant a parliamentary majority to the President President-elect Emmanuel Macron should be able to secure support in June's legislative elections. However, in the context of such an unusual political climate and turn of events, it is hard to predict what the outcome of the French legislative election will be. A Macron-backed majority The best-case scenario for Emmanuel Macron would be the election of a majority of representatives from his political movement En Marche!. However, the likelihood of this scenario remains uncertain for a number of reasons. In particular, the President-elect plans to shortlist at least 50% of newcomers in the political arena, originating from the civil society, who will oppose experienced, well-established incumbents from the traditional political parties. DeHavilland Information Services Ltd

5 A more likely outcome at the moment is the rise of a parliamentary majority composed of MPs from Emmanuel Macron s En Marche! movement and other political parties, including dissident MPs from Les Républicains, the UDI, the MoDem and the Parti Socialiste. Whether or not these MPs will join the President s party remains to be determined. François Baroin warned that any member of Les Républicains tempted to join Emmanuel Macron s government before the vote would be making moves to leave the party. Meanwhile the Socialist Party currently seems more inclined to support the President s actions. A cohabitation with Les Républicains According to latest polls, the other big winner of the legislative election will be Les Républicains. The voting method used, scattered political parties on the left-wing and a whipped Parti Socialiste will all work in their favour. Depending on how many candidates from the Front National get to the runoff, the French conservatives could secure a majority in Parliament and enter in a so-called cohabitation with the President. In such a configuration, the President would lose his role as Head of the Executive to the Prime Minister, who would be a member of the Parliamentary majority. Besides areas reserved for the President, such as Foreign Affairs and Defence, most of his powers would be transferred to the Prime Minister. Emmanuel Macron s election will undoubtedly be watched with relief by his pro-eu partners. Of the eleven official candidates to the French Presidency, he is one of the very few EU optimists, praising the achievements of an ever-closer Union and calling for renewed efforts of strengthening and integration. Among other things, he has called for a EU-wide debate among citizens on the future of the EU. He is also willing to reaffirm five dimensions of the Union s sovereignty namely security, growth, protection in a globalised world, sustainable development and digitalisation and reinforce European identity through concrete measures. While his proposed actions would revolve around a reinvigorated Franco-German relationship, he has also received support from leaders in southern Europe, including the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. In the wake of the Brexit negotiations, his election will likely further cement the common EU position vis-a-vis the United Kingdom. Following a meeting with the UK Prime Minister Theresa May in February, Mr Macron stressed that "Brexit is Brexit [...] There will be no access to the Single Market without a contribution to the budget. [...] As far as I am concerned, I will make sure that there are no undue advantages". Nevertheless, the outcome of the legislative election will need to be closely examined, as it could influence the President-elect s foreign affairs agenda. From a proactive initial approach, Mr Macron could be forced to act more cautiously in order to cope with an unfriendly Parliamentary majority. DeHavilland Information Services Ltd

6 This briefing is part of a series of DeHavilland EU briefings on this year's elections in Europe. See an introduction to the upcoming election in Germany here. This briefing is an example of the in-depth political information DeHavilland EU provides to public affairs and policy professionals every day. Our analysts gather vital political news from the European institutions to bring our customers reports tailored to their information needs. To find out how DeHavilland EU s political intelligence can help your organisation, and to request a free trial, contact our team now. Just visit or call +32 (0) DeHavilland Information Services Ltd