9/28/2009

Transcription

1 STM103 1

2 Planning: tasks From electronic syllabus on the course website Download report template in Word Download either the SPSS or the Stata guide Download the full QoG Codebook in PDF Confirm time slot for lab sessions starting next week 2

3 Lab sessions Computer lab sessions in Taubman instead of class The computer lab has 18 terminals; you may need to share with a partner. Confirm anychangeswith Ian Cornell bythis Wednesday Let Ian know in advance if you lack sign on access Session 1: Group A: Mon 5 Oct pm Group B: Mon 5 th Oct pm Group C Tues 6 th Oct pm Session 2: Group A: Mon 19 th Oct pm Group B: Mon 19 th Oct pm Group C: Tues 20 th Oct pm 3

4 Stata Stata SPSS Group A (Mon 5/19 1:10 2:30) Group B (Mon 5/19 2:40 4) Group C (Tue 6/20 1:10 2:30) Aguilar, Francisco Fodil, Yasmin Didow, Katherine Bouchat, Sarah Icaza, Lorenza Jensen, Louise Chigwerewe, Shakespeare Jaffar, Karrar Munaretto, Maria Dash, Bibhuti Kuzmanovic, Marija Zulueta Fuelscher, Kimana Dieng, Momar Llanos, Daniella Gutierrez, Paul Pineda, Rene Bouchat, Sarah Hoffman, Craig Ramirez Bulos, Claudia Chigwerewe, Shakespeare Jayaram, Shubha Rodriguez, Victoria Dash, Bibhuti Larriera, Carolina Romero, Olga Fodil, Yasim Meyer, Nele Routh, Shishir Guiterrez, Paul Patel, Neha Salvado, Rodrigo Jensen, Stenberg Sanchez, Natalie Selcuk, Orhun Larriera, Carolina Tuinamoala, Laisa Subotic, Simonida Meyer, Nele Vaziralli, Shahid Vibholt, Anders Yildirim Onur Aguilar, Francisco Chigwerewe, Shakespeare Patel, Neha Sanchez, Natalia Shubha, Jayaram Vibholt, Anders Yildrim, Onur Sanchez, Natalie 4

5 Structure of Class I. Aims: Clarify selection of indicatorsfor your project reports II. III. IV. What constitutes a good indicator of democracy? Two major indicators Polity IV Freedom House Role playing Exercise: Evaluating FH 5

6 Key questions? How would you conceptualize and measure democracy? How would you assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Freedom House and Polity IV indices? Which of these indicators would you use, and why, for example, working in a multilateral UN organization, a national HR NGO, as a journalist, as an official for a bilateral donor, or as an academic analyst? How would you justify fyyour choice of indicator to a diplomatic official from the Syrian, Zimbabwe or Sudanese governments? 6

7 Class Readings Haerpfer Ch 3 pp Freedom House: Freedom in the World 7

8 Munck and Verkuilen Challenge Task Standards Conceptualization Identify attributes Avoid maximalist def Vertical organization Avoid redundancy or conflation Measurement Select indicators Validity Reliability Aggregation Select levels Validity Aggregation rules Transparency of rules Validity/robustness Replicability 8

9 Polity IV Monty G. Marshall, and Keith Jaggers Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, : Dataset Users Manual. Maryland: University of Maryland. Long time series i ( ) annual observations Academic standard, especially in IR 9

10 Polity IV Concepts Democracy reflects three essential elements: 1. The presence of institutions and procedures through which citizens can express preferences about alternative policies and leaders; 2. The existence ceof institutionalized tut constraints ts on the power of the executive; and 3. Theguarantee of civil liberties to allcitizens (although not actually measured). 10

11 Polity IV measurement Thedataset constructs a ten point democracy scale by coding The competitiveness of political participation (1 3), The competitiveness of executive recruitment t (1 2), The openness of executive recruitment (1), and The constraints on the chief executive (1 4). Autocracy is measured by negative versions of the same indices. The two scales are combined into a single democracy autocracy score varying from 10 to

12 Polity IV classification The existence or absence of institutional features of the nation state. Competitive executive recruitment is measured by leadership selection through popular elections contested by two or more parties or candidates. The openness of recruitment for the chief executive is measured by the opportunity for all citizens to have the opportunity to attain the position through a regularized process, excluding hereditary succession, forceful seizure of power, or military coups. By contrast, t autocracies are seen as regimes which h restrict titor suppress competitive political participation, in which the chief executive is chosen from within the political elite, and, once in office, leadersface few institutional constraints ontheir power. 12

13 Polity IV Figure 3.4: Trends in Polity IV measure of Constitutional Democracy, Mean Polity Combined 20-pt score Year Source: Monty Marshall and Keith Jaggers Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions,

14 PROS? CONS? cons? Pros and Time series data since 1800 Comprehensive worldwide coverage Standard academic resource for regime transitions Linked todatasets on conflict and MAR Non transparent methods limits replicability Unclear concepts and technical measures Categorization of democracy, anocracy and autocracy grey area Excludes any measure of civil liberties and human rights 14

15 Freedom House Mission Statement Freedom House is an independent nongovernmental organization that supports the expansion of freedom in the world. Freedom is possible only in democratic political systems in which the governments are accountable to their own people; the rule of law prevails; and freedoms of expression, association, and belief, as well as respect for the rights of minorities and women, are guaranteed. Freedom ultimately depends on the actions of committed and courageous men and women. We support nonviolent civic initiatives in societies where freedom is denied or under threat and we stand in opposition to ideas and forces that challenge the right of all people to be free. Freedom House functions as a catalyst for freedom, democracy and the rule of law through its analysis, advocacy and action. Founded 1942 in NY, based in Washington DC 15

16 Freedom House Measure Annual Index since 1972 Political Rights and Civil Liberties Scale from 1 (most tf free) )to 7 (least free). Nations worldwide classified as Free (1 to 2.5) (established democracies) Partly free (3 to 5.5) (consolidating democracies) Not free (5.5 to 7) (non democracies) 16

17 FH F.H. Checklist of Political Rights 1. Is the head of government or other chief national authority elected through free and fi fairelections? 2. Are the national legislative representatives elected through free and fair elections? 3. Are the electoral laws and framework fair? 4. Do the people have the right to organize in different political parties or other competitive political groupings of their choice, and is the system open to the rise and fall of these competing parties or groupings? 5. Is there a significant opposition vote and a realistic possibility for the opposition to increase its support or gain power through elections? 6. Are the people s political choices free from domination by the military, foreign powers, totalitarian parties, religious hierarchies, economic oligarchies, or any other powerful group? 7. Do cultural, ethnic, religious, or other minority groups have full political rights and electoral opportunities? 8. Do the freely elected head of government and national legislative representatives determine the policies of the government? 9. Is the government free from pervasive corruption? 10. Is the government accountable to the electorate between elections, and does it operate with openness and transparency? 17

18 FH F.H. Checklist of Civil Liberties 1. Are there free and independent media and other forms of cultural expression? 2. Are religious institutions and communities free to practice their faith and express themselves in public and private? 3. Is there academic freedom and is the educational system free of extensive political indoctrination? 4. Is there open and free private discussion? 5. Is there freedom of assembly, demonstration, and open public discussion? 6. Is there freedom for nongovernmental organizations? (Note: This includes civic organizations, interest groups, foundations, etc.) 7. Are there free trade unions and peasant organizations or equivalents, and is there effective collective bargaining? Are there free professional and other private organizations? 8. Is there an independent judiciary? 9. Does the rule of law prevail in civil and criminal matters? Are police under direct civilian control? 10. Is there protection from political terror, unjustified imprisonment, exile, or torture, whether by groups that support or oppose the system? Is there freedom from war and insurgencies? 11. Do laws, policies, and practices guarantee equal treatment of various segments of the population? 12. Does the state control travel or choice of residence, employment, or institution of higher education? 13. Do citizens have the right to own property and establish private businesses? Is private business activity unduly influenced by government officials, the security forces, political parties/organizations, or organized crime? 14. Are there personal social freedoms, including gender equality, choice of marriage partners, and size of family? 15. Is there equality of opportunity and the absence of economic exploitation? 18

19 Trends in democracy, FH Freedom House categories Free Partly free Not free Year 19 Source: Freedom around the World Count

20 Correlates with other indicators Freedom House 7-pt Rating (reversed) Vanhanen Index of Democratization Correlation.730(**) Sig. (2-tailed).000 N 3006 Polity Combined 20-pt score Correlation.904(**) Sig. (2-tailed).000 N 4382 Cheibub Type of Regime Correlation.826(**) Sig. (2-tailed).000 N

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22 IV: Role playing exercise Divide into pairs from different countries One of you has been appointed as a consultant by Amnesty International to conduct an evaluation of a country. You need to interview the other person who provides information as a country expert. Using the Freedom House checklist, what is your democratic rating of the country? Swap roles as consultant and expert What are the problems encountered by this exercise? Are your ratings similar, or different, to those by FH? 22

23 Advantages of FH Measure? 1. Allows global comparison of nation states and independent territories 2. Time series analysis: 1972 date 3. Quantifiable yardstick of political development 4. Continuous measure not a simple dichotomy 5. Commonly used in research, so facilitates replicability across different studies 6. In practice the scale is strongly correlated with other common measures of democratization 23

24 Disadvantages of FH Measure? 1. Reliability/subjectivity of evaluations? 2. Indicators or evaluations reflect US/Western values? 3. Consistency of evaluationsacross across timeand place? 4. Limitations of information sources in some states 5. Floor and ceiling effects: compressed scale? 6. Excludes economic dimension (?) 7. Excludes direct democracy 8. Single indicator is less useful for policy evaluation 24

25 Next class Thomas Carothers Read article Monday week: Prepare your choice of variables using the QoG ; select