Dr Klaus Julian Voll FEPS Advisor on Asia

Transcription

1 Dr Klaus Julian Voll FEPS Advisor on Asia with Joyce Lobo, independent analyst India's political landscape has fundamentally changed. The overwhelming victory of the BJP/NDA and the virtual decimation of the Congress will unfold a different form of governance with a strong man at the helm. Narendra Modi, admired and vehemently opposed, faces tremendous expectations, which cannot be fulfilled by nationalism and populism. With portrait of Narendra Damodardas Modi by Joyce Sabina Lobo in appendix. 1

2 The elections to the 16th Lok Sabha (Lower House) dramatically changed the political landscape in India. A veritable political Tsunami swept the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, Indian People's Party) and its partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under the leadership of Narendra Modi with a big absolute majority to power and decimated the Congress to its ever lowest tally. The BJP - in European terms a right of the centre party - captured the middle-ground and addressed large sections of the aspirational India. With this landslide victory, also based on a tremendous communication work - not the least with social media - we will certainly see a profoundly changing India. But the possible policy changes and the style of governance some expect a quasi presidential form or even some authoritarian tendencies - will only unfold in the months to come. Nationalism, possibly also focusing on aspects of Hindu mythology, will certainly rise under a Modi-led regime, as it does in other parts of Asia like in China and Japan. Causes for NDA's good performance The balance-sheet of the Congress-led UPA with its corruption scandals, massive unemployment, the lower growth of the economy in recent years and a continuous high inflation enabled Narendra Modi to conduct a massive campaign, in which he focused on development and good governance with reference to his so-called Gujarat model. Modi avoided controversial topics from the BJP's agenda. He appealed particularly to the youth and new voters and was way ahead in public perception of the Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi. People across castes voted in different degrees especially for him and less for the BJP. Modi did not indulge in empty populism. But he definitely sold hopes for a strong India, which will lead to high expectations. It has to be seen, if there will be diversions from his announced aims, if he can not substantially improve the economic situation. The results in some details 66.38% of the more than 800 million strong electorate casted their votes. The BJP on its own Portrait at the end 2

3 gained 282 seats with 31%, well above the required 272 mark for an absolute majority. The NDA reached 334 seats with altogether 39%. The Congress got decimated to 43 seats with 19%, which does not even permit it to occupy the office of Leader of Opposition. Its partners in the outgoing government of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) just gained 18 seats with altogether 23%, including the Congress vote-share. How far can India's oldest party, founded in 1885, reinvent itself and will it remain a dynastic entity? There is space for progressive, left and social-democratic politics in India, although the erstwhile socialists have completely vanished from the political scene. The good performance of the BJP led to critical losses for North Indian caste-based regional parties, like the Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with zero seats, the Samajwadi Party (SP) 5, the Janata Dal United (JDU) 2 and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 4 seats. The newly founded Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) gained four seats in Punjab, but none in Delhi. Only the Trinamool Congress (TC) with 34 in West Bengal, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) with 20 in Odisha and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu with 36 seats could improve their positions. The Left, 11 seats altogether, has been reduced to its lowest tally ever and could only capture one seat in West Bengal, where it ruled for more than 30 years. They performed reasonably well in Kerala, thanks to the charisma of their 90 years old star campaigner, and gained two seats in the Northeastern state of Tripura. The more or less extinguished Socialists did not play any role in these elections. Reactions from the Congress The Congress has been reduced to junk, so N. Ram, the owner of the daily The Hindu. Ashwini Kumar, a former cabinet minister, advocated a transformation of the Congress. The re-elected former State Minister Dr. Shashi Tharoor demanded strong state leaders. President Sonia and her Deputy Rahul Gandhi, who has no DNA for politics, have owned up to their responsibility. But their offer to resign has been rejected, since they provide the glue, which holds the party together. The family is a source of strength and weakness. Perhaps the more charismatic Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra, Rahul's sister, could enter politics after the Maharashtra elections. Analysts don't expect the Congress to come back from this knock-out, since it has reached rockbottom, whereas Sudeendhra Kulkarni opines, that the Congress will bounce back. 3

4 Kamal Nath, 9th time Congress M. P. and the most senior in the new Lok Sabha, demanded, that the culture of patronage within the party has to end. The Central Working Committee has to be elected. There should be less control from Delhi vis-a-vis the state organisations. We have to be connected with the grass-root levels and the aspirational society. Perspectives The BJP and also Modi, the 14th Prime Minister, envisage India becoming a strong national power. Modi sees himself as a warrior of development. Critics, like Sudeendhra Kulkarni, erstwhile close advisor to BJP's Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajüpayee and his deputy L. K. Advani, opine, that without secularism India cannot remain united, which is countered by BJPideologues with the slogan justice for all, appeasement to none: India first. Modi is opposed to the Nehruvian system, according to Kumar Khetkar, a senior journalist, who envisages the danger of collapsing political structures. Experts expect, that the high hopes in economic improvement will lead to a moderate Modiregime at least in the first two years. Some of the real contours of the ideology of Hindutva, advocated by the several millions strong cadre-organisation Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), would surface afterwards, like the building of a temple in honour of the Hindu-god Ram in Ayodhya, a uniform civil code, the abolition of article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir, anti-conversion laws etc. Critics, like the re-elected Muslim Member of Parliament, A. Owaisi, fear a majoritarian form of democracy. The 16th Lok Sabha has with 20 (3.7%) the fewest number of Muslims in independent India. On the other hand, 34% Muslims have voted for the BJP for instance in Rajasthan. Foreign Policy The foreign policy will most probably not change much, at least in the short-term. Vis-a-vis Pakistan one can expect a harder approach, particularly in case of terrorist attacks in India, but perhaps also a more flexible policy. Modi shows great interest in China's economic development. China and Japan, which he both 4

5 visited, could play a bigger role in future under his dispensation. Germany and France could be in demand for top technology. Overall, Modi will try to improve his image towards the outside world. His declared aim is to make India a leading global power. Beyond the election results Many, also in the political class, assumed, that coalition politics would continue for ever. But this historic election with its mandate for a strong man has led to a certain unipolarity and thrown out conventional wisdom. Modi, who won both from Vadodra in Gujarat and from the holy city of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh with overwhelming majorities, vowed in his victory speech in Varanasi to clean the river Ganga, the filthiest river in the world, and the city. There are certain trust deficits with regard to Modi, particularly the deadly riots in Gujarat in He cannot escape the past and has to face the challenge. As a result, there have been already some inclusive messages by Modi. The political fragmentation has certainly been reduced. The election verdict has led to a consolidation of Hindus, without being an explicit vote for Hindutva. One can observe a decline of caste-based parties in the Hindi-heartland, but not yet an abandoning of caste-politics. But the BJP-victory will definitly lead to a Modi-fication of the democratically legitimized State Class in India. Only time can tell, if the hitherto quite corrupt, dynastic, crony capitalistic, plutocratic and criminal tendencies of this system can at least be reduced and a better and more efficient system of governance established. Therefore it will be important, that reform-oriented forces from within and without the system will win the upper hand. According not only to Yogendra Yadaw, there is oppositional space in this country N. Ram: AAP has not been knocked out of the ring, but it requires more substance in its economic program. The journalist and economist Surjeet Bhalla calls AAP an idea, whose time has come. It has the chance to occupy the left of the centre space and lead extra-parliamentary struggles. But whether it will survive and grow in the Indian power system remains to be seen. The whole party system will most probably undergo a churning with yet fully unforeseeable results. The stock-markets reacted very positively to Narendra Modi's election victory. He has the chance, together with the BJP and its alliance partners, to turn around Asia's third largest economy. The political and social consequences can only be recognised in the months to come. 5

6 Narendra Damodardas Modi: a short portrait By Dr. Joyce Sabina Lobo, independent Analyst Narendra Damodardas Modi, aged 63, was born on the 17th of September 1950 at Vadnagar, Mehsana district of Gujarat. His father Damodardas Mulchand Modi ran a tea shop at the Vadnagar railway station and mother Heeraben operated an oil mill. As the third child out of six he helped his father run the tea shop. He belongs to a backward community of Ghanchis, who produce and sell edible oils. He finished his schooling at the Gujarathi medium Bhagavatacharya Narayanacharya High School and has a M.A. in Political Science, Gujarat University. As per the requirements of his caste he married Jashodaben Chimanlal at the age of 13, but Modi moved out of this marriage bond when the period came for cohabitation. Since his childhood, it is said that he was searching for something that gave purpose and direction to his life which almost led him to live a life of an ascetic. It is only in April 2014 he officially acknowledged his marital status in the nomination papers. Modi rose from his humble beginnings to power by being part of two organisations the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He started his political career with the RSS, a socio-cultural organization with a focus on social and cultural development of India, as a pracharak (campaigner). This is a hardline Hindu-rightist organisation which was banned with the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi in In Gujarat this organisation was kept alive by Laxmanrao Inamdar through a network of shakhas (branches) where young Narendra Modi at the age of eight joined as a bal swayamsevak (child volunteer).[i] He started from ground zero as an assistant carrying on with daily chores only to rise up within the RSS.[ii] Here he was part of the 1974 Navnirman anti-corruption agitation, and most importantly fought against the emergency, declared then by Indira Gandhi (June 1975 to January 1977). In order to be in political power, in 1987 Modi joined the BJP wherein within a year he became the General Secretary of the Gujarat unit to liaison between the RSS and the BJP. Over the next eight years he was to become one of the power centers in Gujarat in terms of selection of candidates for state and national elections or forming alliances. In 1995, he was appointed the National Secretary of the BJP and given the charge of five major states in India. In 1998, he was promoted as the General Secretary (Organization), a post he held until In October 2001, 6

7 he was chosen to be the Chief Minister (CM) of Gujarat when his predecessor Keshubhai Patel resigned. Since then he continued as the CM of Gujarat for four consecutive tenures (2001, 2002, 2007 and 2012). The anti-climax to his rule came in 2002 when he presided over the Godhra riots as the CM of Gujarat wherein according to estimates between 750 and 2000 people were killed, mostly Muslims. The pogroms carried out against Muslims saw killing, injuring, raping of women, burning houses and people including children, and vandalising property. The tacit understanding between the rioters, the police and government officials fuelled the carnage. This created a rift within the BJP central leadership under the then Prime Minister (PM) Atal Behari Vajpayee and Modi. If not for the strong RSS support, Modi s political career would have been over. Moderates within the BJP were not happy with the events in Gujarat. This heinous event led Modi to be called a fascist, mass murderer, hater of Muslims, autocrat, Hitler, etc. In an attempt to regain his personality that is appealing to the rest of the nation and abroad, Modi strategized long ago for an image makeover from being a hardcore Hindu extremist to being a man bringing development to his home state. The last two tenures of Modi (2007 & 2012) saw the sidelining of the Sangh Parivar[iii] and focussing on development of Gujarat. Christophe Jaffrelot hence argues that this personalisation of power which was hitherto lacking in the BJP in its relation to the Sangh Parivar has been initiated by Modi and has led to the alienation of senior BJP leaders.[iv] In fact top BJP leaders Sushma Swaraj and Murli Manohar Joshi apart from L. K. Advani and Jaswant Singh, were not happy with the Modi PM candidacy. During his time within the RSS and the BJP, Modi displayed traits of being independent, speaking his own mind, exerting autonomy or breaking orders from his superiors.[v] This brought him in conflict with the BJP leadership on several counts. He is known for authoritarian tendencies, relying on his own views and has insecurities of any person becoming a powerful personality countering his own.[vi] Any person found to counter him for Gujarat riots is termed as pseudosecularist and anti to Gujarati interests and its people [vii], thus providing a safe cover for his communal image. In March 2013, Modi was appointed as member of the BJP Parliamentary Board, its highest decision-making body, and also as a Chairman of the party's Central Election Campaign Committee. Modi was selected to head the poll campaign for the 2014 parliamentary election 7

8 at the national level executive meeting of the BJP on the 10th of June Having been a major campaign figure in the 2009 elections, he was declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the 2014 general elections in September This position was bestowed on him for being a successful CM, and his popularity amongst the BJP cadre, wherein the party could ride on his Gujarat success. He is credited for being a great organiser and a man who is impatient to complete tasks and implement projects. With the success of his highly personalized campaign and the election results, Modi will be sworn in as the 14th PM of India on the 21st of May [i] Vinod K. Jose, The Emperor Uncrowned. The rise of Narendra Modi, The Caravan, 01 March URL: [ii] -ibid- [iii] The Sangh Parivar means Family of Organisations of Hindu nationalists which includes the RSS and several dozen smaller organisations. [iv] Christophe Jaffrelot, Parivar and the Ciity, The Indian Express, February 10, [v] Vinod K. Jose, The Emperor Uncrowned. The rise of Narendra Modi, The Caravan, 01 March URL: [vi] As per the observation interviewees to Modi s biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay for the biography Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times, Tranquebar: [vii] Vinod K. Jose, The Emperor Uncrowned. The rise of Narendra Modi, The Caravan, 01 March URL: 8