BIHAR STATE SPECIFIC FINDINGS

Transcription

1 BIHAR STATE SPECIFIC FINDINGS Table 1: Projected vote share if Lok Sabha elections are held now (January 2014) UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY % UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY % Party 2009 Actual July 2013 Estimated Vote January 2014 Estimated Vote INC BJP JDU RJD LJP AAP Others Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small party and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share. Estimates for 2013 based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in July Estimate for 2014 based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January AAP was not on the dummy ballot paper in the July 2013 survey hence no separate vote share estimate for the party was made. Sample size for 2013 was 1735; Sample size for 2014 is 1317 Table 2: Percentage of those who say both JDU & BJP were equally responsible for the break up has doubled JDU or BJP: Who is to more Traditional Kurmi, Muslims responsible for the break up? JDU supporters Koeri JDU more responsible BJP more responsible Both JDU and BJP are equally responsible Neither JDU nor BJP are responsible Can t say Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January Sample size for overall in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was Questions asked: Whom do you consider responsible for the breakup of JDU-BJP alliance - JDU or BJP?

2 Table 3: JDU-BJP and RJD-Congress seen as natural partners by their respective ; but fairly high support for a Cong-JDU alliance among their respective as well Support for possible pre-poll Congress BJP JDU RJD alliances for LS polls in Bihar Support for RJD-Congress alliance Support for JDU-Congress alliance Support for JDU-BJP alliance Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, the rest either did not support or could not say. Weighted Data. 3. Sample size is Question asked: Now I will read out the names of a few possible pre election alliances in Bihar for the Lok Sabha elections. Please tell me for each alliance, whether you support it or oppose it? Table 4a: Eight out of ten respondents in Bihar have heard about the blasts during Modi s rally in Patna last October Heard about Patna blasts? Heard 83 Not heard Sample size is Question asked: Have you heard of the bomb blasts at the Gandhi Maidan in Patna during Narendra Modi s rally?

3 Table 4b: Most say Nitish govt. to blame for security lapse during Modi rally, including many Muslims Opinion on blasts during Modi s Patna rally (responses of only those who are aware of the blasts) Upper caste Yadav Kurmi Lower OBC Dalit Muslim Nitish govt to blame for security lapse Nitish govt not to blame, such things are impossible to check Can t say Sample size for overall is Question asked: (If heard of blasts) There are some people who think that the Bihar government did not provide adequate security for Narendra Modi s rally in Patna and hence it is to blame for the not being able to prevent the blasts, while there are others who feel that it is impossible to check such incidents and the Nitish Kumar government should not be blamed for the blasts. What is your opinion? Table 4c: Divided opinion on BJP s decision to continue with Patna rally despite blasts, including among JDU BJP s decision to continue addressing the rally JDU BJP crowd despite blasts was (responses of only those who are aware of the blasts) Appropriate Inappropriate Can t say Sample size for overall is Question asked: (If heard of blasts) Do you think the BJP s decision to continue addressing the crowd at the Patna rally even after the blasts was appropriate or inappropriate?

4 Table 5: Lalu got adequate punishment in fodder scam case say most Opinion on Lalu s punishment in fodder scam case Muslims Yadavs Traditional RJD supporters Too harsh Adequate Too little Can t say Sample size for overall is Question asked: People have different opinion on the punishment given to RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav in the fodder scam. Some say that whatever punishment court gave to Lalu was more than what was required while the others say that the punishment given to Lalu was absolutely appropriate. What is your opinion? Table 6: ASSEMBLY ELECTION PREFERENCE: While BJP way ahead in LS poll preference, JDU is the clear leader in the event of an assembly election, RJD also gains If assembly elections in state are held tomorrow, will vote for JDU 38 RJD 23 BJP 23 INC 4 LJP 3 Others 7 Undecided 2 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January Sample size is Question asked: If assembly elections are held in Bihar tomorrow, then which party will you vote for? Table 7: JDU government s performance still rated mostly positively but is down compared to last July

5 Satisfaction with performance of the State JDU govt Satisfied Dissatisfied Can t say Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the JDU government in Bihar over the last three years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied). Table 8: Nitish Kumar s performance as CM rated better than his government s performance Satisfaction with performance of the Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar Satisfied 63 Dissatisfied 36 Can t say 1 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January Sample size is Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of Nitish Kumar as the chief minister of Bihar over the last three years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied). Table 9: Bihar state government s popularity still as high as it was last July Should the JDU govt in Bihar get another chance? Yes No Can t say 11 7

6 2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January Question asked: Suppose assembly elections are held in your state tomorrow, should the present JDU government in Bihar get another chance? Table 10: Over three fourths respondents in Bihar dissatisfied with UPA govt s performance Satisfaction with performance of UPA Central govt. in Bihar Satisfied Dissatisfied Can t say Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last four/four and a half years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Table 11: Dissatisfaction with Manmohan Singh s performance doubles Satisfaction with performance of Manmohan Singh as PM in Bihar Satisfied Dissatisfied Can t say Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Manmohan Singh s performance as the Prime Minister? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)

7 Table 12: UPA government extremely unpopular in Bihar Should the UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election? Opinion in Bihar Yes No Can t say Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January Question asked: Should the Congress-led UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election? Table 13: PM choice Modi s popularity increases Prime Minister choice in Bihar Narendra Modi Rahul Gandhi 7 9 Sonia Gandhi 4 3 Manmohan Singh 6 1 L K Advani 3 1 Nitish Kumar Lalu Prasad Yadav Ram Vilas Paswan 2 3 Arvind Kejriwal 0 3 Others 6 3 Can t say Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.

8 4. Question asked: Who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country after the next/2014 Lok Sabha election? Table 14: AAP impact in Bihar: 50 percent have heard about AAP, 39 percent want it to contest the LS polls from their seat and 22 percent showed interest in voting for AAP in the LS polls AAP impact in Bihar Heard of AAP 50 Want AAP to contest from their seat 39 Inclined to vote for AAP in LS polls 22 Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures are for three separate questions; rest had not heard, do not want it to contest from their seat and are not inclined to vote for it in LS polls; Weighted Data. 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January Sample size is Question asked: Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)? (If heard) Would you want AAP to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections from your Constituency? (If heard) If AAP contests from your Lok Sabha constituency, would you vote for it?