Brexit Negotiations - The View From the EU

Transcription

1 A Cicero Group analysis Brexit Negotiations - The View From the EU DECEMBER 2016

2 Foreword Once Article 50 is triggered, the UK will enter into a complex and difficult negotiation in which the UK s objectives are pitted against those of 27 Member States and the European institutions. The structure of the EU s negotiating team has become clearer since June s referendum. The Commission s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier will lead the EU s negotiations, drawing substantially on all Directorates-General for technical expertise and support. The political steer of Barnier s negotiation position must be provided by the Council. It will therefore be the task of the Council s Didier Seeuws to corral 27 Member States into a single position to provide the EU s mandate. We set this out in the graphic on Page 6. Meanwhile, the Parliament will use the threat of its veto to ensure its Brexit Representative, Guy Verhofstadt, and the Parliament s Conference of Presidents are directly plugged into negotiations from the start. Reaching a consensus among Member States will be no small feat for Seeuws. There is a misconception that Member States will inevitably refrain from imposing tough sanctions on the UK through fear of harming their own economies. By extension, there is a view that Germany s economic ties with the UK will ultimately see them persuade other Member States to adopt a more accommodating position. The reality is far more complicated and points towards a much more difficult negotiation than many in the UK acknowledge. Each Member State has a unique mixture of political, economic and social variables which exert domestic political pressure on its leaders and will inform its government s negotiation position. In an effort to distil these varying positions, we have identified in our report a set of key variables in selected Member States. These include the UK-Member State trade ties, the relative population sizes of UK and EU27 citizens resident within each other s territory, upcoming elections, the relative presence of populist or Eurosceptic support within the electorate and the complicating factor of a secessionist region that would seek to capitalise on Brexit negotiations. When collating these variables, we can identify Member States that will pose an inherent challenge to a smooth negotiation for domestic political reasons, their attachment to their citizens rights to reside in the UK or their limited economic ties with the UK. Key amongst these being France and the Visegrad Group of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia albeit for different reasons. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the UK can look to Ireland and Denmark as Member States likely to provide the least challenge to its negotiation position. That said, while there are differences between the positions of these Member States, the size of these differences pale in comparison to the gulf between their collective positions and the UK s. The picture that emerges is that like the UK, other Member States negotiating position will be informed by their own domestic considerations and interests. This means that they 2

3 may not always take economically rational decisions to prioritise economic interests over political. Finally, all Member States agree that the cost of a deal that makes leaving the EU look like a viable alternative to membership far outweighs the cost of new trade barriers. This simple calculation is likely to be the guiding principle of their negotiation. We hope you find our report useful. Helena Walsh Executive Director Brussels James Hughes Account Director Alexander Kneepkens Senior Account Manager Sebastian Damberg-Ott Account Manager George Winkler Account Executive 3

4 Upcoming negotiations - Article 50 and trade deal 2 year countdown begins Article 50 triggered 2 years to resolve A50 negotiations extension only by unanimous consent of EU27 Article 50 Negotiations Divorce proceedings Further detail on Page 5 A50 agreement fails / 2 year time-limit expires A50 agreement concluded Trade Relationship Negotiations Future relationship negotiation Further detail on Page 5 Likely immediate suspension of UK participation in EU programmes, legal uncertainty for EU28 expats and resort to WTO trade schedules Potential outcomes: Start trade negotiations Finalise trade negotiations already being worked on Transitional agreement 4

5 The outcome of the negotiations - two intertwined but separate agreements Article 50 Agreement 1 Trade Agreement 3 UK contributions to the EU budget including including pension liabilities, loan guarantees, EU-funded infrastructure projects and contribution to the Investment Plan for Europe (or Juncker Plan ) Status of British officials in the EU institutions Withdrawal of both British MEPs from the European Parliament and British judges from the European Court of Justice Location of European agencies based in the UK, namely the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) Provisional measures (i.e. current litigation at the ECJ, ongoing European arrest warrants, sanctions) UK s continued membership of Europol and participation in Common Security and Defence Policy Border issues in Northern Ireland and the status of Gibraltar Acquired rights of EU/UK citizens living in both jurisdictions 2 Participation of the UK in EU funding programmes such as Erasmus, Horizon 2020, the European Social Fund (ESF) and the European Defence Agency Broad description of the future relationship identifying the basic aspects of the trade relations Transitional Agreement 1. Market access i. Trade in goods and customs duties ii. Services, including Financial Services iii. Public Procurement iv. Rules of origin 2. Regulatory cooperation i. Regulatory cooperation ii. Technical barriers to trade (TBTs) iii. Food safety and animal and plant health (SPS) iv. Specific industries 3. Rules i. Sustainable development ii. Energy and raw materials iii. Customs and trade facilitation iv. SMEs v. Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) vi. Competition Policy vii. Intellectual property and geographical indications 1. Political cooperation i. Participation of the UK in EU programmes (i.e. Education, R&D) ii. Macroeconomic cooperation iii. Migration, asylum and border management iv. Defence cooperation v. Internal and external security (Europol, Eurojust) 2. Institutional cooperation i. Periodical Summit-level meetings ii. Creation of a ministeriallevel Association Council with sector-specific committees and subcommittees Detailed definition of the future relations, including a timeline of the trade negotiations 1 Green Highly likely Orange Likely Red Possible, but needs political compromise 5 2 Acquired rights might be further discussed in the negotiation of the Trade Agreement under a Political cooperation chapter 3 Assuming that the trade deal will contain chapters similar to those of the unfinished Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with the US (dark blue) and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with Ukraine (in light blue).

6 Negotiating the UK s withdrawal under Article 50 EUROPEAN COUNCIL POLITICAL OVERSIGHT EUROPEAN COMMISSION TECHNICAL DETAIL EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT FINAL APPROVAL All Member States Member States feed into the Council through Permanent Representations and Council configurations Commission Directorates-General Barnier s A50 Task Force will draw directly on all DGs for technical support Parliamentary Plenary The Parliament must approve the final agreement by a simple majority of those MEPs present during the vote Council Secretariat General Council decides negotiation mandate and approves agreement by QMV Commission Article 50 Task Force Coordinating Commission s strategic, operational, legal and financial issues related to negotiations AFCO & other cmtes Verhofstadt will draft a resolution before, and a consent resolution after, negotiations, within AFCO. Additionally, other Committees will feed into Verhofstadt directly Council Task Force of the UK Brexit Provides Barnier and his team the EU s negotiation mandate and political steer Head of the Council Brexit Task Force Didier Seeuws EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier Parliament Brexit Representative Guy Verhofstadt Conference of Presidents The Conference of Presidents, will be expanded on Brexit issues to include AFCO Chair Danuta Hubner and Conference of Committee Chairs Chair Jerzy Buzek UK Chief Negotiator 6

7 Challenging negotiations ahead Heatmap of Member States domestic political factors impacting Brexit negotiations France Key Visegrad Group Austria Germany Italy Netherlands Spain Belgium Ireland Denmark Visegrad Group = Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia The electoral context Key electoral events 2017 Article 50 Trigger Deadline End of March French Presidential Election First Round 23 April Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dutch Parliamentary Election 15 March French Presidential Election Run-off 7 May German Parliamentary Elections September 7

8 The electoral context: the polling François Fillon 65% In the Spotlight - French Presidential Election First Round (23 April 2017) Source: Ifop poll, published 3 December 2016 Marine Le Pen 28% 13.5% 9% 16% 24% François Fillon Jean-Luc Melenchon Francois Bayrou Second Round (7 May 2017) Emmanuel Macron x x x Marine Le Pen 35% x Dutch parliamentary election (15 March 2017) 25 % PVV 26 Nov 19% German parliamentary election (TBA September 2017) 36% % VVD 17% 30 D66 9.9% 25 22% 15 % CDA 9.7% % 8 6 Mar 30 Apr 29 May 5 Jun 2 Jul 2 Aug 3 Sep Source: The Dutch Polling Indicator (Peilingwijzer) by Tom Louwerse, Assistant Professor in Political Science at Leiden University 29 Oct 26 Nov SP GL PvdA 9.3% 8.5% 8% 15 11% 10% 10% 10 6% 5 CDU/CSU SPD Grune AfD Linke FDP Source: Forsa poll, published 7 December 2016

9 Trade between Member States and the UK UK EXPORTS EU COUNTRY UK IMPORTS 2.94bn Austria Balance: -2.24bn 5.18bn 19.50bn Belgium Balance: bn 30.18bn 7.54bn Denmark Balance: 0.28bn 7.26bn 38.25bn France Balance: -8.06bn 46.31bn 54.12bn Germany Balance: bn 88.22bn 34.82bn Ireland Balance: 13.44bn 21.37bn 20.36bn Italy Balance: -6.67bn 27.04bn 42.64bn Netherlands Balance: -2.43bn 45.08bn 18.22bn 13.45bn Spain Balance: bn Visegrad Group Balance: bn 24.68bn 32.60bn Visegrad Group = Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia Source: The Pink Book, 2014 United Kingdom Balance of Payments, Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom 9

10 Migration between Member States and the UK UK CITIZENS IN THE MEMBER STATE 11,013 Austria CITIZENS IN THE UK 21,698 27,335 18,556 Belgium Denmark 29,142 24, ,344 France 149, ,352 Germany 131, ,761 Ireland 503,288 64,986 Italy 151,790 49,549 Netherlands 68, ,821 Spain 91,179 51,210 Visegrad Group 868,602 Visegrad Group = Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: Migrants by Destination and Origin, Table 16: Total migrant stock at mid-year by origin and by major area, region, country or area of destination, 2015, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Population Division Key = 20,000 people

11 AUSTRIA Key People Chancellor Christian Kern, Social Democratic Party (SPO) Leader Reinhold Mitterlehner, Austrian People s Party (ÖVP) Leader Heinz-Christian Strache, Freedom Party (FPÖ) Leader President-elect, Alexander Van der Bellen Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 2.94bn -2.24bn 5.18bn Upcoming elections Following the victory of independent candidate Alexander Van der Bellen over far-right populist Norbert Hofer in the 4 December 2016 presidential race, the next legislative elections will be held in or before October UK-Austria migration UK CITIZENS IN AUSTRIA 11,013 AUSTRIANS IN THE UK 21,698 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) Secessionist region? No Analysis At the heart of the migrant route to northern European Member States, Austria has been at the forefront of the EU s migrant crisis and subsequent populist swing in support for anti-migration politicians. Following Van der Bellen s win, we can expect Austria to follow Germany s lead more throughout negotiations. Government Negotiation Position Euroscepticism specifically around the EU migration crisis defines Austrian politics and its approach to UK-EU negotiations; however, Van der Bellen s electoral success reduces uncertainty around Austria s negotiation position. 11

12 BELGIUM Key People Prime Minister Charles Michel, Reformist Movement (MR) Bart De Wever, New Flemish Alliance (NVA) Leader Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 19.50bn bn 30.18bn Upcoming elections Federal election in UK-Belgium migration UK CITIZENS IN BELGIUM 27,335 BELGIANS IN THE UK 29,142 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes the NVA has benefited from populist support in Flanders, however supports Flemish independence within the EU. Secessionist region? Yes Flanders has popular support for independence. The Flemish national party, the NVA, controls the Flemish Government and is in coalition in the Federal Government. Analysis As a founding member of the EU and the host of its seat of power, Belgium is at Europe s heart. It will therefore form a key member of the core EU27 Member States advocating a staunch negotiation line against dividing the EU s four freedoms. Despite this national mind set, the powerful populist Flemish nationalist NVA party has developed a strain of Euroscepticism that advocates more national powers within the EU. Earlier this year, the party called for a North Sea Alliance with the UK. As the Socialist Government in the Francophone region of Wallonia showed in their opposition to CETA in October 2016, the NVA s outright control of the Flemish Government may allow the party to play an outsized role in holding the Federal Government back from adopting a hard line during negotiations. Government Negotiation Position Belgium traditionally holds a firm line on the four freedoms, however expect domestic politics to soften this position. 12

13 DENMARK Key People Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Venstre Party Kristian Thulesen Dahl, Danish People s Party Leader Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen, Red-Green Alliance Anders Samuelsen, Liberal Alliance Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 7.54bn 0.28bn 7.26bn Upcoming elections General election on or before 17 June UK-Denmark migration UK CITIZENS IN DENMARK 18,556 DANES IN THE UK 24,972 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Red-Green Alliance and Danish People s Party Secessionist region? No Analysis Denmark is a traditional EU ally of the UK s with a healthy trade balance between the two Northern partners. Both countries have secured EU policy optouts and have to contend with a strong degree of Euroscepticism. Although post-referendum polling has shown a rise in EU support amongst Danish voters, indicating the lack of support for a Dexit, the centre-right government is currently under threat of collapse and trying to cope, on one hand, with demands from the People s Party for even stricter immigration rules, and with an ultimatum by the Liberal Alliance to pass unpopular tax cuts for the upper class on the other. Government Negotiation Position Denmark will seek to preserve its close economic relationship with the UK and avoid stoking domestic Euroscepticism. 13

14 FRANCE Key People President François Hollande, Socialist Party (PS) Francois Fillon, Les Républicains Presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, Front National (FN) Leader and Presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron, Independent Presidential candidate Manuel Valls, Socialist Party PS Presidential candidate Christian Noyer, Brexit Special Envoy for Financial Issues Philippe Leglise-Costa, Head of the French Government Brexit Taskforce Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 38.25bn -8.06bn 46.31bn UK-France migration UK CITIZENS IN FRANCE FRENCH IN THE UK 185, ,872 Upcoming elections France will elect a new President on 23 April (first round) and 7 May (runoff) Following Hollande s withdrawal from the Socialist primary, the nowformer Prime Minister Manuel Valls has confirmed his candidacy. Polls continue to indicate that Le Pen will succeed into the second round of the overall election but Francois Fillon, the newly-elected Republicain candidate, will defeat her in the runoff. However, Macron s independent candidacy further complicates the election field for all candidates in April and May. Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Front National s Marine Le Pen has promised to deliver a French referendum on EU membership should she win the Presidency Secessionist region? Yes The Basque region of France presents a minor domestic concern compared to Front National 14 Analysis The French Government under Hollande has consistently taken a hard line against the UK, due in large part to the proximity of elections and a resurgent Front National riding a wave of Euroscepticism. The Government also has an eye on the UK s financial services industry, having appointed former Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer as Brexit Special Envoy. All recent polls indicate that none of the Socialist candidates will be able to outvote Fillon or Le Pen in the first round. The election of a centre-right President will lead France to push for deeper integration of the Eurozone countries. Government Negotiation Position France will promote a hard line as the French Presidential election approaches. If Fillon ultimately wins the Presidency, he can be expected to push for a fast Brexit, the UK s removal of the European financial passport and the renegotiation of Le Touquet border agreement with the UK.

15 GERMANY Key People Chancellor Angela Merkel, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, Social Democrat Party (SPD) Frauke Petry, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Leader Peter Ptassek, Head of German Government Brexit Taskforce Uwe Corsepius, Special Europe Adviser to the Chancellor Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 54.12bn bn 88.22bn Upcoming elections Federal elections in September Merkel announced on Sunday 20 November that she will run for a fourth term. UK-Germany migration UK CITIZENS IN GERMANY GERMANS IN THE UK 103, ,220 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Right-wing populist party AfD have made electoral gains in local and regional elections in 2016, importantly drawing support from both former CDU and SPD voters Secessionist region? No Analysis Germany traditionally occupies the preeminent position within EU negotiations, predicated on its economic leadership within the EU and a self-designated responsibility for holding the European project together. Additionally, Germany has a significant trade imbalance with the UK meaning Merkel has a distinct interest in ensuring the UK-EU divorce is not acrimonious. However, the significance of UK-EU economic ties should not be overestimated. The German government assesses that the future stability of the EU is far more valuable to the national interest. Merkel s ability to successfully navigate an amicable Brexit is threatened by challenges to her political capital both domestically and from elsewhere in the EU27. A fumbled response to the migration crisis and the growth of related populism in the face of Federal elections undermines Merkel s political strength. Government Negotiation Position Germany would like a reasonably amicable Brexit that preserves the stability of both the political and economic frameworks of the EU and Germany - but not at any cost. Elections and populism also undermine Merkel s ability to corral other Member States. 15

16 REPUBLIC OF IRELAND Key People Taoiseach Enda Kenny, Fine Gael Charles Flanagan, Foreign Affairs & Trade Minister Michael Noonan, Finance Minister Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 34.82bn 13.44bn 21.37bn Upcoming elections No upcoming elections. UK-Ireland migration UK CITIZENS IN IRELAND 254, ,288 IRISH IN THE UK Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? No Secessionist region? Not secessionist, however the Republic s land border with Northern Ireland creates a geopolitical football Analysis Ireland occupies a unique position within the EU27 as the only Member State to share a land border with the UK and generations of cross-border trade of goods, labour and services link the Irish and British economies tightly together. Beyond the purely economic perspective, EU membership has provided the foundation for a political settlement around Northern Ireland and importantly its soft border that now looks threatened by Brexit. Ultimately, Ireland will have to find a balance between pushing for an amicable Brexit and positioning its capital as the best alternative hub for financial services. Government Negotiation Position Although Ireland seeks to maintain the positive economic and trade relationships with the UK, it will work hard to ensure the unique situation between Ireland and Northern Ireland is recognised and accounted for in negotiations. 16

17 ITALY Key People Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, Democratic Party (PD) - as of print President Sergio Mattarella, Democratic Party (PD) Beppe Grillo, Five Star Movement (M5-S) Leader Luigi di Maio, Chamber of Deputies Vice President and Five Star Movement Chief Matteo Salvini, Lega Nord Leader Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 20.36bn -6.67bn 27.04bn Upcoming elections Following his overwhelming defeat in the 4 December referendum on constitutional changes, Renzi has officially resigned and there are now three options being considered on the way forward: a grand coalition, a caretaker government, and early elections that could be held as early as February Next elections are formally due in Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Five Star Movement (M5-S) and Lega Nord are looking to capitalise on the popular discontent with Renzi and opposition to his referendum UK-Italy migration UK CITIZENS IN ITALY 64,986 Secessionist region? No ITALIANS IN THE UK 151,790 Analysis Although a founding member of the EU, Renzi has rarely missed an opportunity to criticise the EU when it suited him domestically, including recent criticisms of the Eurozone s governance. He has sided with the UK s EU reform agenda and used the Brexit vote to argue for further reforms in Brussels, particularly around the functioning of the Economic & Monetary Union. The rejection of Renzi s referendum and his subsequent resignation has left a vacuum in Italian politics that could well be filled by the Eurosceptic M5-S and Lega Nord parties if early elections are called. Such an outcome would cause deep uncertainty over Italy s position within the Brexit negotiations. Government Negotiation Position Renzi s government has expressed its willingness to act as a broker in the negotiation of a win-win Brexit agreement, under the argument that it is less exposed to the economic consequences of the deal than either France or Germany. Renzi s departure will significantly shift the political landscape and the Italian Government s approach to negotiations. 17

18 NETHERLANDS Key People Prime Minister Mark Rutte, People s Party for Freedom & Democracy (VVD) Geert Wilders, Freedom party (PVV) Leader Diederik Samsom, Labour party (PvdA) Leader Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 42.64bn -2.43bn 45.08bn Upcoming elections Parliamentary election on 15 March UK-Netherlands migration UK CITIZENS IN THE NETHERLANDS DUTCH IN THE UK 49,549 68,489 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Far-right Freedom Party (PVV) and far-left Socialist Party (SP). Wilders (PVV) is openly looking to capitalise on Trump s success, calling his election the Second American Revolution Secessionist region? No Analysis Although the Netherlands is a traditional ally to the UK and staunch supporter of free trade, the domestic political scene and rise of anti-eu elements make for a difficult negotiating position. Eurosceptic instincts can be seen in the no to the European Constitution in 2005, the founding of the anti-eu and anti- Islam PVV in 2006, the 2016 no to the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and the potential for a future referendum on the EU-Canada CETA deal. The Dutch have to find a balance between being tough on the UK to deal with populist forces at home and at the same time preserving trade relations with its third largest export partner. The March 2017 elections are expected to be followed by a lengthy coalition formation of at least four parties in a scattered political landscape. Government Negotiation Position The Dutch will aim to agree favourable trade relations with the UK and minimise disruption while at the same time discouraging domestic Euroscepticism. 18

19 SPAIN Key People President Mariano Rajoy, Popular Party (PP) Pablo Iglesias, Unidos Podemos Leader Catalonia President Carles Puigdemont, Junts pel sí Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 18.22bn bn 32.60bn Upcoming elections Spain re-elected Mariano Rajoy as President after a 10-month period of political deadlock in October. The parliamentary vote, which took place two days before a deadline to avoid the third election in one year, followed an implosion of the Socialist party. UK-Spain migration UK CITIZENS IN SPAIN 308,821 SPANIARDS IN THE UK 91,179 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Unidos Podemos has risen as an anti-austerity, populist far-left party challenging the status quo of established Spanish political parties Secessionist region? Yes Catalonia and Basque regions. Catalonia s regional parliament has approved plans to call an independence referendum in September 2017 Analysis With sizeable UK imports of Spanish goods and a significant population of UK citizens resident in Spain, the Iberian giant has close economic links with the UK. However, Spain is preoccupied by political instability at home, broad-based populist opposition to establishment parties and domestic separatist movements. Adding to this challenge, Spain is determined to make Gibraltar a key issue in negotiations, with former Foreign Affairs Minister Garcia- Margallo claiming Spain is willing to renegotiate a joint sovereignty status with the UK over the territory. Government Negotiation Position Spain will seek to prioritise sovereign disputes around Gibraltar and undermine any attempts by parts of the UK to negotiate varying levels of EU membership, however Rajoy s domestic political stability remains fragile. 19

20 VISEGRAD GROUP Key People Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Fidesz Party Slovakia: Prime Minister Robert Fico, Direction Social Democracy Party Czech Republic: President Miloš Zeman, Party of Civic Rights Poland: Prime Minister Beata Szydło, Law & Justice Party (PiS) Jarosław Kaczyński, Law & Justice Party (PiS) Chairman Konrad Szymański, Deputy Foreign Minister, Secretary for European Affairs and Chair of Working Group on Brexit Upcoming elections Czech Republic Legislative election in October Poland Parliamentary election before November Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Yes Hungarian Fidesz party; Slovak Direction-Social Democracy party; Czech Party of Civic Rights and Polish Law and Justice party (PiS) Trade with UK UK exports Balance UK imports 13.45bn bn UK-Visegrad migration UK CITIZENS IN VISEGRAD COUNTRIES 51,210 Secessionist region? No 24.68bn CZECHS, HUNGARIANS, POLISH AND SLOVAKS IN THE UK 868,602 Analysis The Visegrad Group has adopted an early joint position on Brexit negotiations at the 16 September Bratislava Summit. Although fissures have erupted between the Visegrad partners, primarily in response to Poland and Hungary s increasingly populist rhetoric, they remain united on one key issue within Brexit: securing their citizens rights to live and work in the UK. This position reflects the significant number of Visegrad nationals in the UK and the Group has said that it will veto any EU-UK deal that limits this. Although the Visegrad Member States do not have the qualified majority needed to block a deal in the Council, as a group of Member States unified on this single key issue, they cannot be ignored. Government Negotiation Position The Visegrad Group will oppose any Brexit agreement that limits freedom of movement, particularly access to the labour market for its nationals. 20

21 Cicero Group is an integrated communications agency specialising in corporate PR, Government relations, digital communications and market research aimed at business, consumer and policy audiences. This means we understand more than any other agency the complex interaction between media, politics and policy. We have offices in London, Brussels, New York and Singapore. Communications and PR expertise Cicero has strong media and PR experience, having worked across print, broadcast and online media for a number of clients. Cicero maintains strong relationships with target media to ensure a best-in-class offering for clients. Cicero s communications team has worked with major organisations in the UK and beyond, and has worked with BBC News, Sky News, Bloomberg, Reuters, all leading national newspapers and trade outlets. Government relations Cicero was founded in 2000 and has grown from one client in the UK to more than 200 in 22 countries around the world today. Our public affairs business works across retail and investment banking, commodities, insurance and asset management. Cicero was named Public Affairs News Specialist Consultancy of the Year in 2011 and Political monitoring and intelligence Novares, Cicero s market-leading public policy intelligence tool, is the foundation of our monitoring and intelligence offering. Services we provide include: Bespoke monthly issue-tracking grids; In-depth analysis of set-piece events; and Verbal consultant reports and under-the-radar intelligence based on Cicero s wide contact base with Government, Parliament, Whitehall, regulators, think-tanks, and industry sources. Contact us Please contact Helena Walsh with any further questions. Digital For a communications strategy to be successful in today s world of 24-hour media, integration with digital media is essential, particularly through social media. Cicero s digital team has worked with leading financial services organisations, including GE and Invesco Perpetual, to deliver digital media monitoring, consultancy and execution to ensure effective delivery of key messages online. Thought leadership Cicero has managed thought leadership projects since In overseeing every aspect of the project, from initial questionnaire design through to results, analysis and reporting, we attempt to ensure that the client is able to generate as many outcomes as possible. Cicero has previously undertaken thought leadership projects for organisations including HSBC, AXA, Scottish Widows and HM Treasury. Design In a world where design is playing an ever increasing role in the success of businesses and companies, we recognise that communication needs to be clear, quick and simple. Our corporate background means we see the bigger picture and can integrate design throughout the process. We implement communication strategies in new and engaging ways, while managing your reputation through clear and consistent design. helena.walsh@cicero-group.com +32 (0) (0) (0)