Preparing for Climate Change at the Local Level: Challenges and Opportunities

Transcription

1 Preparing for Climate Change at the Local Level: Challenges and Opportunities Elisabeth M. Hamin, PhD Associate Professor, Regional Planning University of Massachusetts/Amherst Ana C. G. Mesquita Doctoral Candidate

2 Talk overview Pilot project overview Map Preliminary findings- - barriers and needs Opportunities to mainstream CC adaptation

3 North Shore Newburyport Salem Marblehead Swampscott South Shore Quincy Marshfield Duxbury Plymouth New Bedford Cape Cod Barnstable Mashpee Brewster Eastham Falmouth

4 Discussion about CC in the city/ town Lots of Discussion: 3 Government Level: 5 Interest Groups: 3 Not Much: 3 Not at All: 1

5 Most likely negative outcome from CC in the city/town Flooding: 35% Sea Level Rise: 31% Sea Walls / Beach Erosion: 11% Heat Island: 8% Septic system, Sewage Drain: 15% 15% 8% 35% 11% 31% n = 21

6 Principal Barrier to Address CC POLITICAL+TECHNICAL+OTHER: 43% + Tech+Other 43% + Other 29% Technical+ Other Absolutely both (political + technical). Also it's really hard to get people to raise their hands in a Town Meeting for something that directly impacts their property in a way they would not be all happy about. Both (political + technical). Doing better planning studies that give us better data and also convincing political power to do something long term. It s political, technical and an educational issue too getting people the right information now.

7 Principal Barrier to Address CC POLITICAL + Tech+Other 43% 29% + Other Technical+ Other We've got to convince the town manager, then the Board of Selectmen then we take it to the public. Principal barrier? The political will in resolving to do things. How do you engage the political process to get something effective done?

8 Principal Barrier to Address CC POLITICAL + Other: + Tech+Other 43% 29% Technical+ Other + Other The biggest obstacle would be to go through the proper legal process to put policies into place. And, of course, funding. The state, the federal government should present the regulation, sort of a standard template, and then local communities present another layer. Staff is a biggest barrier for small towns and lack of interest in the part of management. There's still a lack of belief in CC.

9 Principal Barrier to Address CC TECHNICAL+OTHER + Tech+Other 43% + Other 29% Technical+ Other Getting people to know it s a real problem. Producing enough data that people would understand and believe. We need the technical information to generate the political support. The most useful thing would be some modeling to show what s our best guess, what s the worse case, what s the best case, what do we expect in 50 or 100 years with that we could sell the idea very easily.

10 STATE DIRECTION 2 INFO 7 POLITICAL SUPPORT 8 What Planners Need to Start to Address CC POLITICAL SUPPORT: 8 It's not that we're not trying to institute this regulatory process here. It's just that politically it's very difficult to deal with. I know the data is out there. I know the sources. I just haven't got the time to research them all or do anything with them. It s a political problem that there s no support for the staff to do it. It s not a priority for them to worry about it. It's an allocation of resources and political will. Unfortunately, after something catastrophic happens one time it gets your attention and things get done.

11 STATE DIRECTION 2 INFO 7 POLITICAL SUPPORT: 8 What Planners Need to Start to Address CC INFORMATION: 7 Educating people and official municipals are the first steps. We need a scientific study that we can put out to the public and say "here, we just don't think that this is a problem, we know that it's a problem. Producing enough data that people would understand and believe. I d rather having real numbers to show people because I think people have misconceptions: Is it really happening?, I don t know You know, people don t believe in CC. I think it s important to show maps, digital mapping, things like that that carry the most weight

12 What STATE DIRECT. 2 INFO 7 POLITICAL SUPPORT: 8 Planners Need to Start to Address CC STATE DIRECTION: 2 State should present the regulation a standard template to do something at the local level in Massachusetts. People need to have a better sense of what their timeframe is, what is likely to happen. Without any kind of mandate from the state or federal government to adopt regulations, put those things in local plans, I think CC will be the last thing that communities will be looking at because they have other urgent concerns like budget, the capital projects, roadway maintenance

13 Mainstreaming Adaptation OPTION 1: Alternative framing Hazard planning with climate variability Healthy city policies Smart growth Green infrastructure OPTION 2: Explicit CC Begin with climate forecasts Change engineering standards, floodplain locations, etc

14 Choosing Policies First do no regrets actions Next judge policies on Flexibility - - can change as conditions change Supports long- term transformative adaptation/bigger climate changes Service to those who are most vulnerable

15 Phasing adaptation policies Identify the likely worst now Put in place no regrets and flexible policies Upgrade to stronger policies if/as climate changes