Modernization Science

Transcription

1 Modernization Science

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3 Chuanqi He Modernization Science The Principles and Methods of National Advancement

4 Chuanqi He China Center for Modernization Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Room 726, No.33 Beisihuanxilu, Zhongguancun Beijing P.R. China MSC 2010: 91-01, 91F10, 91D10, 91B76, 91B44 ISBN e-isbn DOI / Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer ScienceþBusiness Media (

5 Preface From the perspective of the world frontier of human development, some scholars hold that human beings originated in Africa, initiated agricultural civilization in Asia and industrial civilization in Europe, and fostered knowledge civilization in America approximately. In its about 5,500 years of history, the center and frontier of human civilization has been moving, with different performance in different countries and nations. There is universality as well as diversity in the changes of national and human civilization. Modernization, a worldwide phenomenon since about eighteenth century, refers to the frontier changes and international competition of human civilization generally. It is the frontier process of the formation, development, transformation, and international interaction of modern civilization; the composite process of the innovation, selection, diffusion, and withdrawal of civilization elements in an alternating way; and also the process of international competition for catching up with, reaching, and maintaining the world s advanced level as well as international differentiation. Countries that reached and maintained the world s advanced level are advanced ones, while the rest are developing ones. A country may change from a developing one to an advanced one, or vice versa. There is a certain probability that the international status of a country changes in some term. In the eighteenth century, the Industrial Revolution took placed, and modernization began when British political economist Adam Smith finished his magnum opus An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776). According to the book, the annual supply of a nation depends on two circumstances: the productivity of labor and the proportion between the number of those who are employed in useful labor and that of those who are not so employed. The nineteenth century saw the expansion of the Industrial Revolution and the diffusion of modernization. In this century, British political economist David Ricardo (1817) put forward that possessing utility, commodities derive their exchangeable value from two sources: from their scarcity and from the quantity of labor required to obtain them. German philosopher Carl Marx (1867) argued that a country should and can learn from other countries and what industrially developed countries show to industrially undeveloped countries is just the future of the latter. The twentieth century witnessed the outbreak of the information and knowledge revolution as well as the transition of modernization. In this century, Austrian v

6 vi Preface economist Joseph Schumpeter (1912) proposed his innovation theory where innovation of businesses is used to explain economic development; American scholars came up with the classical modernization theory, which explains the shift from a traditional agricultural to a modern industrial society in 1950s to 1960s. Around the 1960s, advanced countries finished their classical modernization. Since the 1970s, information and ecological revolutions have swept across the globe, modernization studies have been enriched again gradually, and advanced countries have started the historical transition from industrial to knowledge society, from industrial to knowledge economy, from material to ecological culture, etc. Over the past 300 years, human civilization has undergone revolutionary changes. An outstanding change in the international system is international differentiation and national stratification. According to the research by economist Angus Maddison (2001), the ratio of average GDP (PPP) per capita of Western European countries to that of African countries was about 2.6 in 1700, about 2.9 in 1820, about 5.9 in 1913, and up to 13.1 in Ever since the beginning of the nineteenth century, international differentiation has accelerated. Countries are divided into advanced and developing ones, and developing countries are divided into moderately developed, preliminarily developed, and underdeveloped ones. In the twenty-first century, modernization, international competition, and differentiation will go on. The second modernization theory holds that the national advancement is an objective phenomenon and the result of national modernization, international competition, and differentiation. Generally, the national level in the world is in direct proportion to its percentage of innovation value, effective and efficient labor, effective investment and advanced assets, advanced technology, as well as capital and skills per capita. The modernization science is an interdisciplinary one which deals with modernization phenomena. It has two basic tasks: (1) describing and explaining the frontier changes and international competition of modern civilizations and (2) explaining and providing principles and methods on national advance. As the first monograph on modernization science in English language, this book includes three parts with eight chapters: the basic concepts and research methods; the general theories and brief histories of the modernization; the stage-specific, level-specific, field-specific, and sector-specific modernization; as well as modernization policies. There were a lot of excellent scholars in the last 50 years who had made the remarkable contributions to the modernization studies, such as Talcott Parsons, Daniel Lerner, Walt W. Rostow, Cyril E. Black, Samuel Huntington, and Alex Inkeless, etc., to the classical modernization theory; Andre G. Frank, etc., to the dependence theory; Immanuel Wallerstein, etc., to the world system theory; Daniel Bell, Jean-Francois Lyotard, Ronald Inglehart, and Stephen Crook, etc., to the postmodernization theory; Joseph Huber, Martin Janicke, and Arthur P. J. Mol, etc., to ecological modernization theory; Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens, and Scott Lash, etc., to the reflexive modernization theory; Edward A. Tiryakian and Wolfgang Zapf to the new or continual modernization theory; David Herd, etc., to the globalization theory; Shmuel N. Eisenstadt, etc., to the multiple modernities

7 Preface vii theory; and Chuanqi He, etc., to the second modernization theory and integrated modernization theory. In the People s Republic of China, eight monographs on the second modernization since 1999 and more than 12 books on the China Modernization Report since 2001 have been published. I am grateful to the experts who have provided valuable comments to above work, including Ioan Bolovan (Romania), Geoffrey Hodgson (UK), Joseph Huber (Germany), Andras Inotai (Hungary), Nikolay Lapin (Russia), Alberto Martinelli (Italy), Arthur Mol (Netherlands), Witold Morawski (Poland), Edward A. Tiryakian (USA), Hellmut Wollmann (Germany), etc. So many people have contributed to the successful completion of this book in China. I extend my heartfelt thanks to the Peking University Press for its support on the China Modernization Reports since 2001, which provides the most positive studies in the different fields on the modernization science; special thanks to the Science Press for its support on the Chinese edition of Modernization Science (He 2010a), which is the member of Second Modernization series and provides the important thoughts and strong foundation to this book, and to my colleagues at the China Center for Modernization Research and the Research Group for China Modernization Strategies, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and to all the friends and scholars who have given great attention and support to the publishing of the Second Modernization and China Modernization Report series. I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the Springer-Verlag GmbH and her editors including Lisa Fan, Leana Li, Esther Otten, Niels Peter Thomas, and Lu Ye for their kindness and help on the publishing of this book. I would also like to particularly thank my parents Mr. Hanshan He and Ms. Shaozhen Yan and my wife Ms. Feng Zhang. The modernization science is much more than a new science. It represents a new hope. P.R. China Chuanqi He

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9 Abstract Modernization, a worldwide phenomenon since about eighteenth century, is a sort of frontier changes and international competition of human civilization and includes the formation, development, transformation, and international interaction of modern civilization, the innovation, selection, diffusion, and withdrawal of civilization elements, as well as the international competition for catching up with, reaching, and maintaining the world s advanced level and international differentiation. Countries that reached and kept the world s advanced level are advanced ones, while the rest are developing ones. Over the past 300 years, the proportion of advanced countries has been below 20% and that of developing ones has been over 80%. In the past 50 years, the probability that an advanced country descends to a developing one is about 10%, and the probability that a developing country ascends to an advanced one is about 5%. The modernization science is an interdisciplinary one that deals with modernization phenomena. This book, the first one on the modernization science in English language, interprets the basic concepts, research methods, and general theories and histories of the modernization, stage-specific (first and second) modernization, level-related (world, international, national, regional, organizational, and individual) modernization, field-specific (economic, social, political, cultural, ecological, and human) modernization, sector-relative modernization, modernization evaluation, modernization strategies and policies, and introduces the principles and methods on national advancement. This interdisciplinary monograph is designed to provide a clear, systematic, and up-to-date knowledge of the theoretical, empirical, analytical, and policy study on the modernization science, and it includes 438 figures and tables, covers 97% of world population, and involves multidisciplines such as the social science, global politics, civilization, history, modernization, and development study. ix

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11 About the Author Chuanqi He, research professor, was born in 1962 in Wuhan city, Hubei Province. Graduated from the Department of Biology, Wuhan University, in 1983, he currently serves as director of the China Center for Modernization Research, CAS, and head of the research group for China modernization strategies. He is the author or coauthor of over 20 books on the study of modernization and innovation and over 100 articles in academic journals. He advanced the second modernization theory in 1998 and has headed the completion of the Second Modernization series (eight books) since 1999, covering second modernization, national innovation system, modernization of public awareness, modernization of business management, knowledge innovation, distribution according to contribution, Oriental Renaissance (three roads to modernization), and the modernization science. Since 2000, he has taken charge of the research on China modernization strategies and guided the completion of the China Modernization Report each year from 2001 to Contents of such reports include modernization theories, world, international, national, regional, economic, social, cultural, and ecological modernization, as well as modernization evaluation. In 2002, he established the China Center for Modernization Research, CAS, and has since served as the director of the center. xi

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13 Contents 1 Introduction Definition of Modernization Science What Is Modernization? What Is Modernization Science? Natures of Modernization Science Methodology of Modernization Science Paradigm of Modernization Study General Methods of Modernization Study Coordinate Analysis of Modernization Study Summary Further Reading General Theory Core Theory of General Modernization Operational Definitions General Process General Result General Dynamics General Models Basic Principles of National Advance Modernization and National Advance Theoretical Explanation of National Advance General Criteria of National Advance General Methods of National Advance Summary Further Reading History of Modernization Historical Process of Modernization Main Stages of Modernization Main Waves of Modernization Options on Modernization Paths xiii

14 xiv Contents 3.2 History of Modernization Study Origin of Modernization Study Three Waves of Modernization Study Criticism on Modernization Study History of Modernization Thoughts Origin of Modernization Theory Evolution of Modernization Theory Emergence of Modernization Science Summary Further Reading Stage-Specific Modernization First Stage of Modernization Classical Modernization Theory Dependency Theory World-System Theory Second Stage of Modernization Second Modernization Theory Reflexive Modernization Theory Postmodernization Theory Continuous Modernization Theory Roads of Integrated Modernization Integrated Modernization Theory Multiple Modernities Theory Globalization Summary Further Reading Level-Specific Modernization World Modernization Studies Theories International Modernization Studies Theories National Modernization Studies Theories Regional Modernization Studies Theories Organizational Modernization Studies Theories

15 Contents xv 5.6 Individual Modernization Studies Theories Summary Further Reading Field-Specific Modernization Economic Modernization Studies Theories Social Modernization Studies Theories Political Modernization Studies Theories Cultural Modernization Studies Theories Ecological Modernization Studies Theories Human Modernization Studies Theories Summary Further Reading Sector-Specific Modernization Agricultural Modernization Studies Theories Modernization of Education Studies Theories Modernization of Science and Technology Studies Theories Summary Further Reading Modernization Policy Modernization Evaluation Principles of Evaluation International Evaluation Assessment for Policy Making

16 xvi Contents 8.2 Modernization Strategy Modernization Goals Modernization Planning Strategy Management Modernization Measures Innovation and Selection Options for Advanced Countries Options for Developing Countries Summary Further Reading References Author Index Subject Index

17 List of Figures Fig. 1.1 Interaction between the modernization science and modernization phenomena... 3 Fig. 1.2 Three revolutionary shifts in human affairs... 5 Fig. 1.3 From basic to theoretical meanings of modernization Fig. 1.4 The set of advanced and frontier included in the set of latest and present Fig. 1.5 Two paths to reach the world frontier Fig. 1.6 Basic structure of the modernization science Fig. 1.7 Internal structure of the modernization research Fig. 1.8 Internal structure of modernization theories Fig. 1.9 System of modernization theories Fig Disciplinary structure of the modernization science Fig Internal crossover of modernization science Fig Fig Fig Fig Crossover between the modernization science and natural and technical sciences Crossover and difference between modernization science and history Crossover and difference between economic modernization study and economics Analysis structure of human civilization and modernization study Fig Relationship between civilization and modernization Fig Three dimensions of modernization Fig Analysis of the processes of modernization Fig Analysis of the results of modernization Fig. 2.1 Positioning and structure of the general theory Fig. 2.2 Core theory of general modernization Fig. 2.3 Structural model of modernization: changes at two levels and international competition Fig. 2.4 Conceptual model of modernization Fig. 2.5 Logical model of modernization Fig. 2.6 Generality and diversity of modernization Fig. 2.7 Connotation and denotation of modernization xvii

18 xviii List of Figures Fig. 2.8 Coordinates of the frontier trajectories of human civilization and modernization process Fig. 2.9 Road map of the frontier trajectories of human civilization and modernization process Fig Fusion of waves in the catch-up process of modernization Fig Hypercycle model of civilization content modernization Fig Main paths of civilization element innovation Fig Main paths of technology innovation Fig Main paths of knowledge innovation Fig Main paths of institutional innovation Fig Main paths of idea innovation Fig Main paths of civilization element selection Fig Main paths of civilization element diffusion Fig Main paths of civilization element withdrawal Fig Three sources of modern civilization Fig Three roles of traditional civilization Fig Main paths of civilization innovation Fig Composite interaction in civilization system innovation Fig Three criteria of civilization development Fig Main paths of civilization transition Fig Transition of civilization forms Fig Main paths of international interaction Fig Several international statuses in terms of national level Fig Civilization structure of the international system in the modernization process between 1700 and Fig Stage structure of the international system in the modernization process between 1960 and Fig Level structure of the international system in the modernization process between 1960 and Fig Main outcomes of worldwide national modernization Fig Probability of transition between advanced and developing countries in 50 years Fig Model of innovation-driven in modernization process Fig Model of triple-drive in modernization process Fig Model of two-drive in modernization process Fig Model of associative action in the modernization process Fig Model of innovation diffusion in the modernization process Fig Model of innovation spillover in the modernization process Fig Model of competition-driven in modernization process Fig Fig Three basic paths of modernization in the twenty-first century Mix models of industrialization and democratization as well as industrialization and urbanization Fig International differentiation in per capita GDP between 1700 and

19 List of Figures xix Fig Comparison between the classifications of countries in 2000 based on level and stage Fig National stratification based on modernization level between 1960 and Fig National stratification based on economic level between 1700 and Fig Probabilities of transferring status among two and four types of countries in a span of 50 to 100 years Fig Taiji diagram of value percentage Fig Taiji diagram of labor percentage Fig. 3.1 Positioning and structure of the history of modernization Fig. 3.2 Four forms, three shifts, and two modernizations in the frontier process of human civilization Fig. 3.3 Historical stages of human civilization Fig. 3.4 Social stages in the history of human civilization Fig. 3.5 Stages in the frontier process of modernization Fig. 3.6 and civilization Major events in modern civilization and the stages of modernization s frontier trajectory Fig. 3.7 Modernization paths of advanced countries Fig. 3.8 Modernization paths of advanced countries Fig. 3.9 Modernization paths of developing countries Fig Three waves of modernization research in the twentieth century Fig Establishment of classical modernization theory Fig Evolution of modernization theory Fig Symposium on modernization and the modernization magazine published in the 1930s in China Fig. 4.1 Positioning and structure of stage-specific modernization Fig. 4.2 Positioning of the first modernization Fig. 4.3 Structure of classical modernization theory Fig. 4.4 Linear model of the classical modernization process Fig. 4.5 Schematic diagram of dependency theory Fig. 4.6 Schematic diagram of world-system theory Fig. 4.7 Positioning of the second modernization Fig. 4.8 Structure of second modernization theory Fig. 4.9 Reflexive modernization is the modernization of modernization Fig From modernization and modern society to postmodernization and postmodern society Fig Positioning of the integrated modernization Fig Fig Three stages and civilization structure of comprehensive modernization process United action of two transitions in the formation of the industrial and knowledge societies

20 xx List of Figures Fig Changing percentage of industrial added value in GDP Fig Ecological cost in integrated modernization of developing countries Fig Three-factor model of integrated modernization Fig Member number of United Nations and WTO/GATT Fig. 5.1 Positioning and structure of level-specific modernization Fig. 5.2 Analytical structure of world modernization Fig. 5.3 Relations among world modernization, international modernization, and national modernization Fig. 5.4 Relationship between national modernization and international environment Fig. 5.5 Six flows between national modernization and international environment Fig. 5.6 Type and intensity of international interaction in the economic field Fig. 5.7 Type and intensity of international interaction in the social field Fig. 5.8 Type and intensity of international interaction in the political Fig. 5.9 field Type and intensity of international interaction in the cultural field Fig Quadrants of international status Fig Environments and paths of international modernization Fig Relative international status and behavioral choice Fig Analytical structure of national modernization Fig Analytical structure of regional modernization Fig Change of absolute and relative gaps in regional per capita income Fig. 6.1 Positioning and structure of field-specific modernization Fig. 6.2 Objects of economic modernization study Fig. 6.3 Operational definitions of economic intension and extension Fig. 6.4 Change and replacement of economic forms Fig. 6.5 One form of change in income inequality in course of economic modernization (one model) Fig. 6.6 Coordinates of world economic modernization in Fig. 6.7 Three paths for economic modernization in twenty-first century Fig. 6.8 Industrial structure of integrated economic modernization Fig. 6.9 Objects of social modernization study Fig Operational definitions of social intension and extension Fig Coordinates of world social modernization in Fig Three paths for social modernization in twenty-first century Fig Objects of political modernization study Fig Operational definitions of political intension and extension

21 List of Figures xxi Fig Numbers of democratic countries in the second half of the twentieth century Fig Two shifts in the political modernization of advanced countries Fig Percentage of voters in the total population of adults in the UK Fig Coordinates of political modernization Fig Model of innovation-driven political modernization Fig Two-wheel drive model of political modernization Fig Three basic paths of political modernization in the twenty-first century Fig Objects of cultural modernization study Fig Operational definitions of cultural intension and extension Fig Two turns of cultural modernization in developed countries Fig Cultural modernization is the intersection of cultural change and modernization Fig Coordinates of cultural modernization Fig Two-wheel drive model of cultural modernization Fig Associative action model of cultural modernization Fig Three paths of cultural modernization in twenty-first century Fig Diagram of integrated cultural modernization Fig Objects of ecological modernization study Fig The simplification of the PSR model of OECD Fig Coordinates of ecological modernization Fig Environmental pressure model of ecological modernization Fig Three-innovation driving model of ecological modernization Fig Basic paths of ecological modernization in the twenty-first century Fig Diagram of integrated ecological modernization Fig Objects of human modernization study Fig Coordinates of human modernization Fig Dual-wheel motivation model of human modernization Fig Associative action model of human modernization Fig Three paths of human modernization in twenty-first century Fig. 7.1 Positioning and structure of sector-specific modernization Fig. 7.2 Objects of agricultural modernization study Fig. 7.3 Coordinates of agricultural modernization Fig. 7.4 Two-wheel drive model of agricultural modernization Fig. 7.5 Three paths of agricultural modernization in twenty-first century Fig. 7.6 Objects of educational modernization study Fig. 7.7 Coordinates of educational modernization Fig. 7.8 Two-wheel drive model of educational modernization Fig. 7.9 Three paths of educational modernization in twenty-first century

22 xxii List of Figures Fig Objects of Study on Modernization of Science and Technology (S&T) Fig Subsystems of scientific and technological system Fig Coordinates of modernization of science and technology Fig Three-wheel drive model of scientific and technological Fig modernization Three paths of modernization of science and technology (S&T) in twenty-first century Fig. 8.1 Policy research of modernization science Fig. 8.2 Two dimensions for choosing evaluation indicators Fig. 8.3 Management of modernization strategies Fig. 8.4 Life cycle of policy innovation

23 List of Tables Table 1.1 Three explanations of modernization... 6 Table 1.2 Theoretical meanings of modernization Table 1.3 Comparison between the modernization science and development study Table Features of the modernization science Table 1.5 Purpose of modernization study Table 1.6 Category of objects for modernization study Table 1.7 Category of research contents Table 1.8 Matrix of research scale and unit Table 1.9 Matrix of research object and content Table 1.10 Matrix of fields and sectors on modernization study Table 1.11 Seven steps of modernization study Table 1.12 Six requirements for modernization study Table 1.13 Define the research object Table 1.14 Three methodologies in modernization research Table 1.15 Main types of modernization study Table 1.16 Identification of world modernization frontiers Table 1.17 Phasing standards for the first modernization Table 1.18 Phasing standards for the second modernization Table 1.19 Coordinate analysis approach of the modernization study Table 1.20 Civilization time and historical time Table 1.21 The coordinate system of the modernization study Table 1.22 Types of civilization and society Table 1.23 Civilization paradigms and their representative characteristics Table 1.24 Main types of variables in the modernization study Table 1.25 The categorization of the trends of quantitative variables in the modernization study Table 2.1 Core theory of general modernization Table 2.2 Operational definitions of modernization Table 2.3 Conceptual model of modernization Table 2.4 Three criteria of modernization Table 2.5 Basic scope of modernization xxiii

24 xxiv List of Tables Table 2.6 Basic types of modernization Table 2.7 Periodic table of the frontier trajectories of human civilization and modernization process Table 2.8 Stages in the frontier trajectory of human civilization and estimated structures of productivity Table 2.9 Stages of the frontier process of modernization Table 2.10 Paths of the catch-up process of modernization Table 2.11 Characteristics of the frontier process of modernization Table 2.12 Characteristics of the catch-up process of modernization Table 2.13 A comparison of features between the catch-up process and the frontier process Table 2.14 Main features of the first and second modernization Table 2.15 Basic principles of the second modernization theory Table 2.16 World frontiers of human civilization and modernization Table 2.17 Table 2.18 Positivist approach to the world frontier of the modernization process World frontiers at three historical sections of the modernization process Table 2.19 Modernization levels of four groups of countries in Table 2.20 Dynamic models of modernization process Table element mix models for national modernization Table 2.22 Classification of countries based on development level and stage Table 2.23 Expanding international differences and diversity between 1760 and Table 2.24 Gaps between Western Europe and Africa in per capita GDP between 1700 and Table 2.25 International divisions in the modernization process Table 2.26 Logical relationship between national level and key elements Table 2.27 Sources and types of scarcity Table 2.28 Aggregate value created by social labor Table 2.29 Model of social equity Table 2.30 Three driving forces of national advancement Table 2.31 Table 2.32 Table 2.33 Percentages of spending on R&D and technology import in GDP Percentages of transfer payments and government revenue in GDP Criteria or methods for defining advanced countries according to modernization indicators Table 2.34 General criteria of national advancement in Table 2.35 Principles and methods on national advancement Table 2.36 Choosing the methods for national advancement Table 3.1 Big periods in the frontier process of human civilization

25 List of Tables xxv Table 3.2 Periodic shifts of axis and center in the frontier process of human civilization Table 3.3 Accelerations in the periods and stages of frontier process of human civilization Table 3.4 Acceleration in the growth of productivity Table 3.5 Defining the stages of the modernization process Table 3.6 Six waves of economic and social modernization Table 3.7 Options of modernization path in developing countries Table 3.8 Origin of modernization research Table 3.9 Three climaxes of Chinese scholars research on modernization Table 4.1 Three relevant theories on the first modernization Table 4.2 Phasing of the classical modernization process Table 4.3 Nine characteristics of the classical modernization process Table 4.4 Modernity of classical modernization Table 4.5 Six schools of classical modernization research Table 4.6 Criticisms on the classical modernization study Table 4.7 Revision on classical modernization theory Table 4.8 Chinese books and papers on modernization research Table 4.9 Three theories on the second modernization Table 4.10 Structure of modernization theory in broad sense Table 4.11 Structure of first modernization theory Table 4.12 General theory of the first modernization theory Table 4.13 Structure of second modernization theory in narrow sense Table 4.14 General theory of the second modernization theory in narrow sense Table 4.15 Comparison between knowledge and industrial economy Table 4.16 Differences between modernism and postmodernism Table 4.17 Differences between modernization and postmodernization Table 4.18 Three relevant theories on integrated modernization Table 4.19 Structure of integrated modernization theory Table 4.20 General theory of integrated modernization Table 4.21 One theoretical interpretation of globalization Table 5.1 Matrix of the world modernization study Table 5.2 Outcome of modernization of the world as a whole between 1760 and Table 5.3 Outcome of modernization of the world as a whole between 1970 and Table 5.4 Main features of the historical process of modernization in the world s six fields Table 5.5 Geographical distribution of world modernization Table 5.6 Most advanced level of modernization of the world as a whole

26 xxvi List of Tables Table 5.7 Structure of world modernization theory Table 5.8 General theory on world modernization Table 5.9 General principles of world modernization Table 5.10 Matrix of the international modernization study Table 5.11 Structure of international modernization theory Table 5.12 General theory on international modernization Table 5.13 Main concepts of international modernization Table 5.14 Main types of international interaction Table 5.15 Two stages of international modernization in theory Table 5.16 Two stages of international modernization in reality Table 5.17 Twelve features of international modernization Table 5.18 Four principles of international modernization Table 5.19 Eight rules of international modernization Table 5.20 National modernization research matrix Table 5.21 Comparison between countries in starting and transition years Table 5.22 Features of worldwide national modernization Table 5.23 Diversity in worldwide national modernization Table 5.24 Rise and fall of status in national modernization Table 5.25 Four types of first modernization Table 5.26 Element mix models in the first modernization Table 5.27 Element mix models in the second modernization Table 5.28 Element mix models in comprehensive modernization Table 5.29 Predictions about national modernization in the twenty-first century Table 5.30 Time spent for the first modernization in 15 countries Table 5.31 Predictions about national modernization levels in the twenty-first century Table 5.32 Element mix models of different types of countries Table 5.33 Structure of national modernization theory Table 5.34 General theory on national modernization Table 5.35 Matrix of regional modernization study Table 5.36 Per capita GDP gaps between tier-one administrative regions in four countries Table 5.37 Transfer probability of national and regional levels in groups Table 5.38 Structure of regional modernization theory Table 5.39 General theory on regional modernization Table 5.40 Relationship between regional modernization and regional development Table 5.41 Matrix of organizational modernization study Table 5.42 Nine grades of business management Table 5.43 Structure of organizational modernization theory Table 5.44 General theory on organizational modernization Table 5.45 Matrix of individual modernization study

27 List of Tables xxvii Table 5.46 Structure of individual modernization theory Table 5.47 General theory on individual modernization Table 6.1 Matrix of economic modernization study Table 6.2 Two major stages and six waves of economic modernization Table 6.3 Major inventions, innovations and Kondratieff economic cycle Table 6.4 Basic economic institutions in economic history Table 6.5 Basic economic forms in economic history Table 6.6 Industrialization and deindustrialization of American Table 6.7 economy Estimated level of world economic modernization in twenty-first century Table 6.8 Structure of classic economic modernization theory Table 6.9 General theories of classic economic modernization Table 6.10 Contents of industrialization Table 6.11 Structure of economic modernization theory in broad sense Table 6.12 General theory of economic modernization in broad sense Table 6.13 Conceptual models of economic modernization Table 6.14 Periodic table of economic modernization in broad sense change of economic form Table 6.15 Two stages of economic modernization in broad sense Table 6.16 Main features of knowledge economy Table 6.17 Matrix of social modernization study Table 6.18 Two major stages and six waves of social modernization Table 6.19 Modernization of three subsocial spheres Table 6.20 Typical features of basic social systems in social history Table 6.21 Basic social forms and their typical features in social history Table 6.22 Roughly estimated world population distribution Table 6.23 Estimated world population distribution in Table 6.24 Estimated levels of social modernization in twenty-first century Table 6.25 Structure of classic social modernization theory Table 6.26 General theory of classic social modernization Table 6.27 Structure of social modernization theory in broad sense Table 6.28 General theory of social modernization in broad sense Table 6.29 Conceptual model of social modernization Table 6.30 Periodic table of social modernization in broad sense change in social form Table 6.31 Two stages of social modernization in broad sense Table 6.32 Main features of knowledge society Table 6.33 The matrix of political modernization study Table 6.34 Main stages of political modernization

28 xxviii List of Tables Table 6.35 Historical process of political democratization Table 6.36 Democratization in the twentieth century Table 6.37 Structure and time sequence of civil rights Table 6.38 Structure of classical political modernization theory Table 6.39 General theory of classical political modernization Table 6.40 Structure of political modernization theory in broad sense Table 6.41 General theory of political modernization in broad sense Table 6.42 Basic criteria of political modernization Table 6.43 Three sources of political modernization Table 6.44 Basic requirements of political modernization Table 6.45 Conceptual model of political modernization Table 6.46 Periodical table of political modernization in broad sense change of political form Table 6.47 Two major stages of political modernization in broad sense Table 6.48 Characteristics of subfields and sectors of political modernization in broad sense Table 6.49 Modernity and side effects of political modernization Table 6.50 Matrix of cultural modernization study Table 6.51 Two stages and six waves during the cultural modernization Table 6.52 Three subfields of cultural modernization Table 6.53 Timing sequence change of basic cultural institution Table 6.54 Cultural industries surpassing agriculture in size in some developed countries Table 6.55 Structure of classic cultural modernization theory Table 6.56 General theory of classic cultural modernization Table 6.57 Structure of the cultural modernization theory in the broad sense Table 6.58 General theory of cultural modernization in the broad sense Table 6.59 Basic requirements of cultural modernization Table 6.60 Conceptual model of cultural modernization Table 6.61 Periodic table of cultural modernization change of cultural forms Table 6.62 Features of the two stages Table 6.63 Matrix of ecological modernization study Table 6.64 Definitions of ecological modernization Table 6.65 Structure of ecological modernization theory in broad sense Table 6.66 General theory of ecological modernization in broad sense Table 6.67 Operational definition of general ecological modernization Table 6.68 Basic requirements of ecological modernization Table 6.69 Four stages of ecological modernization process

29 List of Tables xxix Table 6.70 Periodic table of ecological modernization: relationship between civilization and environment Table 6.71 Ten principles of ecological modernization Table 6.72 Analysis methods of ecological modernization Table 6.73 Matrix of human modernization study Table 6.74 Two stages and six waves of human modernization Table 6.75 Civil rights and obligations Table 6.76 Conventions concerning culture, labor, and civil rights Table 6.77 by international organizations Human development indexes and new human development indexes of four groups of countries in Table 6.78 Structure of human modernization theory in broad sense Table 6.79 General theory of human modernization in broad sense Table 6.80 Three self-liberations of mankind Table 6.81 Conceptual model for human modernization Table 6.82 Periodic table of human modernization frontier track of individual changes Table 6.83 Staged features of human modernization Table 7.1 Matrix of agricultural modernization study Table 7.2 Two major stages and six waves of agricultural modernization Table 7.3 Percentages of the agricultural sector and per capita national income in the United States Table 7.4 World agriculture in Table 7.5 Main views of classical agricultural modernization theory Table 7.6 Structure of agricultural modernization theory in broad sense 518 Table 7.7 General theory of agricultural modernization theory in broad sense Table 7.8 Conceptual model of agricultural modernization Table 7.9 Two stages of agricultural modernization in broad sense Table 7.10 Main types of knowledge-based agriculture Table 7.11 Matrix of educational modernization study Table 7.12 Two major stages and six waves of educational modernization Table 7.13 Educational modernization processes of five countries Table 7.14 World education in Table 7.15 Main views of classical educational modernization theory Table 7.16 Structure of educational modernization theory in broad sense Table 7.17 General theory of educational modernization theory in broad sense Table 7.18 Conceptual model of educational modernization Table 7.19 Two stages of educational modernization in broad sense Table 7.20 Matrix of modernization study on science and technology (S&T)

30 xxx List of Tables Table 7.21 Two major stages and six waves of scientific and technological modernization Table 7.22 Scientific and technological revolutions, industrial revolutions, and world science centers Table 7.23 Percentages of R&D funds in GDP in five countries (%) Table 7.24 World S&T and economic output in 2000 (%) Table 7.25 Structure of scientific and technological modernization theory in broad sense Table 7.26 General theory of scientific and technological modernization theory in broad sense Table 7.27 Conceptual model of scientific and technological modernization Table 7.28 Two stages of scientific and technological modernization in broad sense Table 7.29 Three stages in the evolution of national innovation system Table 7.30 Structure and function of national innovation system Table 8.1 Main types of modernization evaluation Table 8.2 Principles of choosing modernization evaluation indicators Table 8.3 Examples of modernization level evaluation Table 8.4 Evaluation of innovation capacity and competitiveness Table 8.5 Types of modernization performance evaluation Table 8.6 Criteria for modernization performance evaluation Table 8.7 Comparison between modernization strategies and development strategies Table 8.8 Theoretical basis of modernization goals Table 8.9 Methods of setting modernization goals Table 8.10 Theoretical basis of modernization planning Table 8.11 Methods of modernization planning Table 8.12 Policy options of the second modernization path Table 8.13 Policy options of the catch-up modernization path Table 8.14 Policy options of the integrated modernization path

31 List of Examples Example 1.1 Grouping of Countries... 1 Example 1.2 Origin of the Word Modernization... 4 Example 1.3 Gap between Advanced and Developing Countries Example 1.4 What is Science? Example 1.5 International differentiation of the countries Example 1.6 The Development Mode of Human Civilization Example 2.1 The Choice of the Amish in the United States Example 2.2 Rise and Fall of the National Level and Status in the International System Example 2.3 Yangtze River Model of Human Civilization and Modernization Process Example 2.4 Stages of National Modernization in Example 2.5 Types of Changes in International Status Example 2.6 Classification of Countries based on National Example 2.7 Modernization Level Probability of Transferring Status between Advanced and Developing Countries Example 2.8 Innovation Value and Excess Profits Example 3.1 Start of Modernization Example 3.2 Early Research of Human Development Example 4.1 Evaluation of a Country s Modernization Level Example 4.2 Classical Modernization Studies in China Example 4.3 European Colonies Example 4.4 Towards Knowledge Societies Example 5.1 Change of National Modernization Level Example 5.2 Transfer Probability of Regional Modernization Example 8.1 Three Modernization Evaluation Models Example 8.2 Modernization Goals of Advanced and Developing Countries xxxi