Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World

Transcription

1 Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World

2 Marita Carballo Ulf Hjelmar Editors Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World 123

3 Dr. Marita Carballo Dr. Ulf Hjelmar TNS Westgate London, W5 1UA United Kingdom Reference in this book to Gallup International refers to the Gallup International Association, which is a Swiss Verein that was founded as Gallup International in 1947 by Dr George Horace Gallup and his colleagues. ISBN e-isbn DOI / Library of Congress Control Number: c 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Production: LE-TEX Jelonek, Schmidt & Vöckler GbR, Leipzig Coverdesign: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg Printed on acid-free paper springer.com

4 Preface The book contains results from opinion polls around the world, in total more than 50 countries. As the world becomes more integrated, political and social challenges have become increasingly global, pointing to a greater need for understanding between nations and for finding global trends. Understanding public opinion is integral to modern democracies around the world. It shapes public policies; it helps politicians to connect with their audiences; it reveals underlying issues that are of utmost importance for decision-makers. The initiative for this book has come from TNS Political and Social, a world leader in providing political and social information. TNS provides insights into public opinion, covers elections and analyzes other political, social and economic issues, in more than 70 countries. Each year TNS conducts millions of interviews for clients to understand how the public is thinking or reacting to major issues on a national or international scale. This unique position on the international market has enabled us to conceive and produce this book. I hope this book will find a big audience. Public opinion polling is a powerful tool in the world of today and we need a thorough discussion of its role and its potential in politics and society at large. The following chapters explore and develop this idea. London, September 2007 Marita Carballo Global Head of Sector, TNS Political & Social

5 Contents Preface...V Introduction... 1 Marita Carballo and Ulf Hjelmar Part 1: International Polls The Effects of Globalisation on the Perception of Democracy Tony Cowling Transatlantic Trends: Convergences and Divergences Marita Carballo and Leendert De Voogd A Europe of Values: From Shared History to Common Objectives Pascal Chelala Latin America s Mixed Views About Globalization, Investments and the United States Constanza Cilley How Do the Western Balkans See Their Future? Marchella Abrasheva

6 VIII Contents Part 2: Public Opinion Polling in National Elections Exit Polls A Lot More than Just a Tool for Election Forecasts...93 Richard Hilmer Methodological Issues in Pre-Election Polling: Lessons from ABC News 32-Night Tracking Poll Daniel Merkle, Gary Langer, and David Lambert The Presidential Elections in France 2007 The Role of Opinion Polls Brice Teinturier Voters Lack Commitment: Canada Richard Jenkins Part 3: The Public Sector in Transition Developing Employment Policy in Europe Harald Bielenski The School Sport Partnership Programme Raising Levels of Participation in Physical Education and Sport in Schools in England Susannah Quick Client Satisfaction with Public Services: A Norwegian Case Ole Ugland

7 Contents IX Part 4: Asia on the Move The Role of Social Research in Development Programs: Examples from India U.V. Somayajulu and Tilak Mukherji A Framework for Social Development Assessment Daniel Lindgren and John Budd Polling in Developing Democracies The Case of the Philippines Mercedes Abad and Ophelia Ramirez Māori Television Services Raising Knowledge of Māori Language and Culture in New Zealand Elizabeth Vink About the Authors