New Research Evaluation Model: Indentifying Obstacles and Remedies

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1 New Research Evaluation Model: Indentifying Obstacles and Remedies Jerald Hage, Director Center for Innovation, University of Maryland College Park, Maryland

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3 New Ways of Thinking about Research Evaluations Five Ideas: 1. Emphasize the evolution of science and technology or knowledge generally; 2. Connect the outputs to larger societal objectives, ideally comparatively; 3. Recognize multiple levels of analysis - at least three if not five; 4. Focus on obstacles and potential remedies at each level; 5. Remedies come from social science theory.

4 Larger Objective: Decline in US Economic Growth Five Signs of Decline: 1. Negative trade balances in most high tech sectors, niches; 2. Lower rate of radical innovations of many high tech companies; 3. Decline in patents of some high tech companies; 4. Weakening in wage levels of educated workers; 5. Loss of employment in many high tech sectors.

5 Comparative Data: Research Nation RDT% Patents/ GDP Million People Israel 4.15% 49 Sweden Switzer South Korea Japan Germany U.S.A Economist 1 October, 2010: 97

6 Evolution of Scientific and Technological Research: U.S. Growth in Knowledge leads to: differentiation of research organizations in arenas evolution of new networks to connect arenas Public research laboratories Basic research Universities Bio-tech companies Applied research Development research Pharmaceutical companies Manufacturing research Quality research Commercialization research

7 The Role of Theory in Policy Evaluation of Research Advantages: q The evolutionary theory of knowledge growth allows for predictions to be made; q Patterns of failed evolution are specified and different in U.S. and Europe q The causes lie at multiple levels; q Search for obstacles and remedies in social science theory and beyond in other countries

8 Obstacles Preventing Economic Obstacles: o Static strategies Growth: Research Managerial and Policy Remedies: Seize evolutionary opportunities o Low risk research Broaden research team vision o Lack of learning o Stove pipes Stimulate cross-fertilization of ideas Integrate the organization o Reactive leaders Appoint transformational teams o Valley of death Construct network coordination o No industrial policy Public/private cooperation o Non-visible Blockages Perform timely feedback on innovation at team level and blockages Behind each obstacle are multiple blockages and the remedies have alternatives, each with problems

9 Obstacle: Static Strategies Evolutionary changes: ü Growth in the number of radical innovations; ü Globalization in the development of radical innovations; ü Differentiation in consumer tastes; ü Changes in the way in which radical innovations are produced; ü Expansion in the number of non-economic concerns; ü Emergence of a new stage of manufacturing.

10 Remedy: Seize Evolutionary Opportunities Appropriate Response: Ø customize products/services; Ø recognize the evolution in the patterns of doing research; Ø solve national concerns and global problems; Ø increase flexibility in manufacturing by being able to change the composition of parts.

11 Obstacle: Low Risk Research Evolutionary changes in research problems ü The cost and risk (meaning choice of wrong solution) have increased; ü The variety of arenas that have to develop radical solutions for radical product innovation are now greater; ü More need to eliminate multiple kinds of risks to the environment and to the individual; ü Global solutions have to be customized for specific regional and national differences.

12 Remedy: Broaden the Vision Mechanisms for Increased Diversity; Ø Increase the emphasis on radicaliness of innovation in each of the arenas; Ø Add new kinds of specialists to team; Ø Change problem so that it considers processes and multiple levels; Ø Explore more arenas of research; Ø Create redundancy between differentiated research arenas to facilitate the transfer of tacit knowledge

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14 Remedy: Cross-fertilization of Ideas Mechanisms for More Communication: Ø information that reduces the distance somewhat between individuals; Ø emotional bonding that slows the rate of decline in effective communication as diversity increase; Ø continuously learning that raises the equilibrium curve between effective communication and radical innovation

15 Obstacle: Stove Pipes Evidence for ü Study of universities ü IBM history ü GM history ü SEMATECH history

16 Remedy: Integrate the Organization Mechanisms of integration: Ø Complex organizational strategy that is visionary Ø Transformational leadership team Ø Multiple sources for funding

17 Obstacle: Reactive Leaders Evidence for: ü Failure to adopt flexible manufacturing ü Decline in innovativeness in large firms ü Loss of manufacturing jobs ü Loss of technologies developed in the US

18 Remedy: Transformational Characteristics of: Leadership Teams Ø Overcome obstacles; Ø Expand the frontiers by innovations in occupational specialties and research technologies; Ø Change the know-how of relevant researchers and professionals; Ø Work on a global problem.

19 Obstacle: Valley of Death Evidence for: ü Study of Brookhaven ü Trade deficit in health care products ü Lack of public-private cooperation in manufacturing

20 Remedy: Construct Networks Modal Types: Ø Japan s supply chains Ø SEMATECH as a research consortium Ø Silicon Valley as a knowledge pool

21 Obstacle: Blockages in Kinds of Blockages: Organizations 1. Absence of team processes associated with innovation; 2. Lack of certain kinds of communication; 3. Inappropriate managerial style; 4. Inadequate reward structure for researchers; 5. Not enough research resources; 6. Absence of long term strategy. Jordan s Environmental Research Survey

22 Remedy: Feedback Levels of Feedback 1. Connecting measures of technical progress to organizational blockages; 2. Situating the organizational research outputs relative to the sector nationally and internationally; 3. Counting the differentiation of research organizations; 4. Measuring the degree of integration between them.

23 Implications for Data Collection by NSF, STPI, IDA, USDA, etc. 1. Funding and capabilities in each of the six arenas in each sector/niche; 2. More measures of radical innovation performance in each arena; 3. Specialized studies of evolution and failed evolution in a specific sector/niche; 4. Specialized studies of the causes of failure to have radical innovation in each arena of a sector. Measurement is necessary to pinpoint both failure and its causes

24 Summary The Proposed Evaluation Model: 1. Uses a model of knowledge growth; 2. Connects specific research projects to larger issues; 3. Operates at multiple levels; 4. Identifies obstacles and suggests remedies; 5. Enriches theory and vice-versa