Mexico party system falling apart

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1 Page 1 of 6 Ruben Mena From: Ruben Mena Sent: Tuesday, July 08, :50 AM To: Fernando Macias, Norte; Javier Cabrera, Bravo Cc: Felix Arenas; Gonzalo Bravo; Liliana Chavira; Donald Hobbs Subject: Mexico party system; PRI makes comeback; Agreement guarantees saved Rio Grande Mexico party system falling apart By S. Lynne Walker COPLEY NEWS SERVICE July 8, 2003 ANALYSIS MEXICO CITY - As results trickled in yesterday from Mexico's midterm congressional elections, political analysts say one thing is now clear: This country's party system is in trouble. Voters stayed away from the polls in droves, resulting in the lowest turnout in modern history. Those who bothered to show up - about 40 percent of Mexico's 64 million registered voters - not only cast their ballots against President Vicente Fox but in favor of small parties operating outside the political mainstream. "That is an indictment of the political elite," said George Grayson, a Mexico scholar at the College of William & Mary. "There's palpable discontent with the current parties." The result is a splintered Congress that's unlikely to approve major legislation at a time when Mexico desperately needs to open its electricity industry to foreign investment, overhaul labor laws and raise government revenue with new taxes. Worse still, Fox, who was swept into office three years ago by an optimistic public, is now seen as a lame-duck president. "I don't see Fox being able to marshal public support any more," said political analyst Federico Estevez. "His presidency is essentially over." The situation is so critical that Mexico's benchmark 30-year bond suffered its biggest one-day decline yesterday in more than four years. The peso also fell 1.5 percent, to against the dollar. "The system is terribly fragmented," Estevez said. "The party system isn't cracking. It is decomposing." Fox's party, the National Action Party, or PAN, appears to have lost as many as 54 of its 202 seats in Congress. Some disenchanted voters turned instead to the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, whose congressional seats may have increased from 207 to 227. Many others turned to the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, which nearly doubled its presence by gaining at least 41 seats.

2 Page 2 of 6 "We are seeing greater power among voters," said Natividad González, the PRI's gubernatorial candidate in the border state of Nuevo Leon, who beat the PAN candidate by a 20-point margin. "Now, people have the capacity with their voter registration card to pass judgment on the results of an administration, on the transformation of a party and on the political trajectory of a person." Mexico's political system came unglued after Fox's history -making victory in After being controlled by the PRI for 71 years, the system suddenly was opened to all sorts of contenders. The lure of national political power drew 11 parties into the congressional races, but only six garnered enough votes to remain registered as political parties. Mexico Posible, a party that won national attention with its platform of legal abortions and gay rights, was among those that ceased to exist. Mexico's new political climate also is sparking vociferous fighting within the parties by politicians who all see themselves as presidential material. The democratic free-for-all that's certain to ensue could splinter the country's three major parties as they approach the 2006 presidential election, political analysts said. Even more troubling is the prospect that Mexicans will become disillusioned by the competition and turn away from Mexico's hard-fought democracy. "People are fed up," said political analyst Jorge Chabat. "But the solution is not to get rid of parties. If the parties are discredited, who knows who we're going to get for president." S. Lynne Walker: slwalker@terra.com.mx Copyright 2003 Union-Tribune Publishing Co. PRI makes comeback in Mexico By Dane Schiller and John Sevigny Express-News Staff Writers Web Posted : 07/08/ :00 AM MEXICO CITY - Three years after losing control of the presidency for the first time in 71 years, the Institutional Revolutionary Party padded its congressional plurality and beat its main rival in four out of six gubernatorial races in Sunday's midterm elections. Based on incomplete returns from the Federal Electoral Institute, the PRI, as it is known in its Spanish initials, appeared likely to gain at least 13 seats in the 500- member Congress, boosting its total to 220. Its archrival, Mexican President Vicente Fox's conservative National Action Party, or PAN, lost at least 44 seats, to 158 from 202. The Democratic Revolutionary Party, or PRD, increased its Flash graphic PRI on a roll To view the graphic you must have the Flash plugin. More Coverage Text of Mexican president's address White House is warming up to Mexico

3 Page 3 of 6 representation to 99 from 56. "PRI with a new attack," read one newspaper's banner headline Monday. "PRI is revived," read another. In races that were seen as a judgment on Fox's first three years in office, the president clearly lost much of the overwhelming support he had enjoyed when his 2000 victory filled the streets with dancing supporters from all corners of society. Ballots, some of which were cast in the most remote corners of Mexico, still were being counted and complaints of irregularities were being reviewed, said federal election officials. But preliminary results, based on quick counts, indicate PAN also lost its bid for the governorships of Nuevo León, Colima, Sonora and Campeche and failed to capture a majority in Congress. PAN candidates won the governor's races in Queretaro and - for the first time - San Luis Potosí. In a speech to the nation Sunday, Fox said politicians should listen to the voice of the people - including the estimated 65 percent of eligible voters nationwide who did not cast ballots. "This vote carries with it a mandate of moderation, dialogue and agreement," he said. "We must also hear the citizens who did not express themselves at the ballot box; let us understand their silence." He also called for cooperation among parties to "work together" to break the deadlock in Congress, which no party controls and in which several of his initiatives have languished. "They were handed a major defeat, and I just don't think it has sunk in," Mexico City political scientist Federico Estevez said of PAN activists. "Fox is dead in the water. He has no political capital left," Estevez said. "I expect ripple effects for weeks and months in terms of party leadership and Cabinet changes." In the important border state of Nuevo León, home state of Monterrey, the nation's third-largest city, the PAN was clobbered by 22 percentage points. With the fresh victories, the PRI boosted the number of states it governs to 16, compared with 10 by the PAN and six by the PRD, which runs a distant third in national elections but is in striking distance of being a major player. Natividad González's apparently wide margin of victory in the race for governor of Nuevo León was being hailed as a powerful indicator of the PRI's comeback. As for the Congress, observers predict the results will only give the PRI more confidence and make it harder than ever for Fox to get his proposals through the legislative logjam. "The PRI is more than ready to reoccupy what it believes is its historic place," said German Dehesa, a political analyst and author of a book on PRI politics.

4 Page 4 of 6 "God has given them a mission to rule," he said facetiously. "But like the conquistadors and the Indians, our saviors charge a high price," he added in a reference to the PRI's record of authoritarian rule. The PRI, known for red, white and green campaign materials, the same colors as the Mexican flag, long was synonymous with a highly centralized government in which every sitting president picked his successor, Congress put a rubber stamp on all presidential selections and Mexicans rarely had a political choice. All that began to change in recent years, and came to a head when Fox rallied 16 million Mexicans to defeat the PRI. Abel Guerra, the Nuevo León party head who also is a state congressman-elect, said the PRI was "indestructible." Speaking in his sprawling office in the heart of downtown Monterrey, Guerra all but guaranteed the party would win the presidency in three years. "We can win as long as the federal government doesn't interfere. In fact, even if they do interfere, we can win. We're the party the people want." Salvador Garcia, a retired industrial machinery salesman in Monterrey, said he voted for Fox's PAN but that the party has itself to blame, at least in Monterrey. "The PRI didn't have to do anything to win," he said. "The PAN did everything for them." express@cablevision.net.mx Special Correspondent John Sevigny and Knight Ridder contributed to this report. 07/08/2003 Agreement guarantees saved Rio Grande water goes to U.S. By LYNN BREZOSKY (Associated Press Writer) The Associated Press Web Posted : 07/03/2003 7:11 PM In an agreement signed in El Paso on Thursday, Mexico has guaranteed that a third of the water conserved by irrigation projects in the state of Chihuahua will be sent to American farmers.

5 Page 5 of 6 Sally Spener, a spokeswoman for the International Boundary and Water Commission, said that Minute 309 followed through on last summer's Minute 308, in which Mexico agreed to transfer 90,000 acre feet of water from Falcon Lake reservoir to the U.S. She said Thursday's agreement also allows for U.S. inspections of the projects. Both pacts are amendments to a 1944 water sharing treaty stipulating that the U.S. and Mexico share water from the Rio Grande and Colorado River. Mexico has not been meeting its commitment to send the U.S. 350,000 acre feet annually and now owes the U.S. 1.4 million acre feet. An acre foot is enough to flood an acre of land a foot deep. South Texas farmers were outraged to hear the June 2002 agreement also called for millions of dollars to be sent to Mexico to better irrigation systems. The $40 million in funds were to come from the North American Development Bank, a binational fund. NADBank recently announced recipients for the U.S.'s matching $40 million, which is being divided among a long list of cities, irrigation districts and other entities in Texas. California, Arizona and New Mexico. Mexico is expected to be able to send the U.S. 107,014 acre feet of saved water annually once the projects are completed in about three years, Spener said, which is about a third of the 321,043 acre feet engineers expect their project to conserve. That complies with treaty language saying that a third of the water from the Rio Grande tributaries in Chihuahua, including the Conchos River, belong to the U.S. But releases of saved water may start as early as January, Spener said. "What this does is enhance Mexico's ability to deliver the water that is required under the treaty," she said. State Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs, reached at her home late Thursday afternoon, said she was "cautiously optimistic" about the news. "We keep waiting and I think that the reason we got this far is because we refused to budge until they gave us something," she said. She said she was concerned that there was still no plan to pay back the debt. "It's as though it's this large elephant in the room that no one's looking at," she said. A Texas A&M study concluded that the lack of water is costing the Rio Grande Valley and its farmers $1 billion. Congress last fall authorized $10 million in relief for South Texas farmers, but Combs said that was only a drop in the bucket. "It's about $21 an acre for the farmer when they've all lost about $275 an acre," she said. "So it's really not getting them a lot."

6 Page 6 of 6 Citrus farmer Jimmie Steidinger agreed, quickly calculating that his share of the saved water would at best allow him to water five acres. "It's just a thing to give them a little bit and hope they shut up, if you ask me," he said. "I want to be neighbors but what it comes down to is killing the growers in the Valley." 07/03/2003