Political Snapshot January 2014

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Political Snapshot January 2014"

Buck Brooks
5 years ago
Views:

1 Political Snapshot January

2 Page2 Contents Talks with TTP... 3 Public Protection Ordinance:... 4 MQM... 4 PPP: Sindh Festival... 4 Baluchistan: Season for talks... 5 International:... 6 USA & Afghanistan: Endgame and Peace talks... 6 India & Kashmir... 6 Iran: Changing stance on the IP Pipeline... 7

3 Page3 Talks with TTP Hakimullah Mehsud s sudden killing in a drone attack November 2013 left the possibility if talks between the TTP and Pakistan rather bleak. We will try and create the right conditions for the talks, will try and remove some misgivings and maybe suggest some confidence building measures. Maybe the first such measure could be a ceasefire. Sharif in this month has managed to take all political parties on board. While the government remains torn between talks and an operation, the major political parties have managed to stay on the same page. Outlining the government's "clear position and plan of action", Sharif announced a four-member committee of non-parliamentarians whose will facilitate dialogue with the Taliban. The Pakistani government held preliminary peace talks with the Taliban on 4 th February, The Taliban is suffering from internal dissent and general unhappiness with years of fighting and nothing to show for it. Some Taliban factions have increased their attacks against government targets and that has led to retaliation from the military. During the last 12 years Pakistan has suffered heavy casualties (over 4,000 dead and 13,000 wounded) fighting Islamic terrorists in the tribal territories. Over 40,000 Islamic terrorists and local civilians have been killed (and many more wounded) by the security forces. Only days after the government announced its representatives, and asked the TTP to announce their chosen representatives, the militant outfit assumed the authority to demand its own choice of peace talk middlemen from the government s side as well. Rejecting the four, TTP asked for PTI chairman Imran Khan and Samiul Haq among three others. The former declined this request, expressing complete faith in the four members chosen by the Prime Minister. A rending notion in political circles is the inevitable failure of the talks. The TTP has since reiterated its core demand of the enforcement of a strict interpretation of Islamic law, "whether through peace or war". The government has been pleading them for talks, emboldening the terrorists to assert themselves; thus failing to assert its monopoly over the use of force.

4 Page4 Public Protection Ordinance: A new bill introduced in the Senate seeks to give law enforcing agencies powers to shoot at sight, detain suspects for 90 days and strip born Pakistanis of their citizenship among others. The PML (N) is short of majority in the Upper House as the MQM and JUI believe such draconian laws are likely to hit them most. The Senate threatened to vote out the bill even if the National Assembly passes it. This was in sharp contrast to somewhat muted protest in the National Assembly, which seems to lack opposition as compared to the Senate for allowing such an act to pass with so much ease. Human rights activists and representatives of the civil society and media share the concerns of opposition leaders who have opposed and criticized the government for introducing legislation in snippets, rather than focusing on a holistic national counter-terrorism strategy. Suchlaws in the past have been used against leaders themselves, like they were by Musharraf against Sharif in 1997 and by Zia-ul-Haq agaist Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in MQM 3 February 2014: Leaders of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) have vowed to disclose conspiracies being hatched for the character assassination of their chief Altaf Hussain. Speaking to a massive rally organized as a show of solidarity with the party chief, Deputy Convener of MQM s Rabita Committee Dr Maqbool Siddiqui said that implicating Altaf Hussain in court cases means implicating hundreds and thousands of the party supporters as well. Senior MQM leader Dr Farooq Sattar termed the latest BBC documentary on Altaf Hussain a negative propaganda against MQM and its chief and vowed to use legal rights to act against the vicious media trial. In response the BBC has assured that all material of the documentary is backed with evidence. The report identified the suspects as Mohsin Ali Syed and Mohammed Kashif Khan Kamran, and said they are both believed to be in Pakistani custody but not under formal arrest. PPP: Sindh Festival Amidst Security conflict, drone issues, and the debate whether to talk or to launch an operation with the Taliban, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto invited leaders from all over the country to participate in the Sindh Cultural Festival. The idea was to celebrate a 6000 year heritage, mostly shunned by the Islam obsessed narrative that Pakistanis have been taught since the 1970s. The sole purpose of organizing Sindh Festival and Art Fest is to preserve and protect our cultural heritage sites as well as to promote rich art culture of Sindh. Almost one and half month ago I asked Sameera Raja and Aqeela to volunteer Art Fest and in this short span, they have done very well, said Bilawal at the grand opening of the event. Bilawal s speech emphasized on the importance of culture, values. In a time of escalating security tribulations the young party chairman has been ruthlessly criticized by analysts and social media. But in the land of gunshots, suicide attacks, and army

5 Page5 operations against the terrorists, our cultural values and heritage remain a constant that need to be celebrated, justify some. Baluchistan: Season for talks Following the government s lead in talks with the TTP, Baluchistan government has decided set up its own panel to start a reconciliatory process with the insurgents responsible for plunging the province into chaos over the past few years. The call for an APC (All {arties Conference) by Home Minister Mir Sarfraz Bugti is aimed at bringing all relevant militant and tribal groups together. With a lack of strategic control, it seems that talks are the first step towards a peace in the province.

6 Page6 International: USA & Afghanistan: Endgame and Peace talks Relations between the United States and Pakistan have been turbulent especially since the beginning of 2011 when a secret U.S. military raid located and killed OBL deep inside Pakistani territory. A key issue between the two sides remains the militant groups based in Pakistan s tribal areas along the Afghan border. U.S. drone strikes on the groups draw the ire of the Pakistani government, and the public. In the past, the United States has pressurized Pakistan to crack down on the militants more belligerently. While the US praises Pakistan's role in the war against terrorism, the presence of militant groups on Pakistani soil remains a matter of concern for Washington. The USA in its most recent statement has deemed peace talks with the TTP Pakistan s personal affair. Whether this is a after the Afghan government s secret contact with the Taliban was exposed, or a diplomatic way of saying that the US will protect her own national interests, in spite of what page the TTP and Pakistan government find themselves on, we don t know. As the US prepares to pack up and leave Afghanistan in the coming months, the country sharing the largest border with Afghanistan, and the easiest access to warm waters remains a vital concern. The United States has also recently expanded energy cooperation with Pakistan to help the country overcome critical power shortages, which should enable power generation facilities to add 1000 megawatts to the national grid. On the security front both sides acknowledged that a peaceful, stable, independent, and united Afghanistan is in the interest of the region s stability and affirmed the important role of countries in the region in supporting Afghanistan s progress toward stability and prosperity. They emphasized mutual support for a policy of non-interference in Afghanistan by all countries of the region and also reaffirmed that Afghan-led peace and reconciliation is the surest way to end violence and ensure lasting stability of Afghanistan and the region. India & Kashmir After a year of relatively turbulent ties with India, the year 2013 ended with a significant handshake at the Wagah border has started with the mutual acknowledgement for better economic ties, and also a positive push towards peace with respect to Kashmir. Regional actors like the USA have expressed their desire to see more peaceful and conducive toes between the two nations, building further bridges. Made In Pakistan Expo 2014 being held in Mumbai, India seems to be a promising initiative with over 45% stalls already booked, as reported by Pakistan Readymade Garments Manufacturers and Exporters Association (PRGMEA) Chairman Arshad Aziz. The event is expected to fetch at least $100 million worth of export orders and Pakistani garments, paving way for long-term business deals between the two countries and giving a much needed boost topakistan s value-added sector.

7 Page7 While initiatives like Aman ki Aasha, and cultural exchange can build some tolerance between the two, sustainable peaceful ties can only be attained once the looming Kashmir issue is sorted between the two countries. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has expressed a more positive shift more conducive to talks with his Indian counterparts under an expected BJP leadership in the upcoming election. Iran: Changing stance on the IP Pipeline After more than two years of building the pipedream the Pakistan government formally shelved the plan on 31 st December 2013 with the Iranian government, requesting some leeway regarding the 31 st December 2014 deadline for completion of the project. Funding problems have plagued the project for years now, along with the looming fear of economic sanctions for trade with Tehran. While the IPP had been portrayed as the solution to Pakistan s worsening energy crisis in the previous government s tenure, despite worse US-Iran relations before the nuclear deal kicked off. However even though Tehran is less likely now to face more economic sanctions, and its pariah-state status has thawed since the new Rouhani government assumed office, Pakistan s Sharif government has expressed more skepticism in pursuing such a deal. Sharif s justification is that while the Western nations have signed a nuclear deal with Tehran, their stance on the IPP project remains unmoved. Given Pakistan s feeble economic conditions, to risk the wrath of the West would be unwise to say the least. For many analysts the IPP dream would have opened options, and improved Pakistan s bargaining position. It could have been a smart and selfish decision to lower dependence on the West. But critics of the project point out its lack of economic feasibility. The government simply lacks funds.

Political Snapshot: Year End 2013

Political Snapshot: Year End 2013 The Way Forward The year 2013 will be remembered historically as the foundation for democratic transition. In May 2013 the first democratically elected government, in