Asymmetric Warfare Within Hybrid Warfare. Dr Rod Thornton, King s College London

Transcription

1 Asymmetric Warfare Within Hybrid Warfare Dr Rod Thornton, King s College London

2 Asymmetric warfare and hybrid warfare Both are seen as different from the norm of warfare. Both tend to be products of the weak. Current Russian hybrid warfare employs asymmetric techniques.

3 What is asymmetric warfare? Not merely weak vs strong. Warfare that cannot be mirror-imaged. It works fundamentally on the principal that the strengths of the stronger actor should be turned into vulnerabilities by the weaker actor.

4 Differences between hybrid warfare and asymmetric warfare Hybrid Strength from synergy Long-term planning Targets civilian mindsets mostly Undermining morale is main aim (helps generate inner decay ) Asymmetric Independent actions Ad hoc Military targets mostly Undermining morale is minor aim

5 Inner decay Principal aim of Russian hybrid warfare is to create instability in a targeted state it can then be more easily manipulated by Moscow. Russian government publication: Instead of straightforward occupation and the use of force, it is recommended that indirect approaches be used and efforts made to subdue the adversary to cooperation either by coercion or by allowing the adversary to lead itself towards the desired direction. (V. I. Lutovinov, The Military Policy of the Russian Federation in the Conditions of Globalisation, 2009)

6 Asymmetric techniques within hybrid warfare turning strengths into vulnerabilities Mode of hybrid warfare: Information warfare A strength of liberal democracies is that they allow free speech. This is turned against them as they cannot adequately prevent propaganda designed to generate the inner decay.

7 Asymmetric techniques within hybrid warfare turning strengths into vulnerabilities Mode of hybrid warfare: Generating protest To make use of internal opposition throughout the adversary s area as a permanent front. (General Valerii Gerasimov, 2015) Generates inner decay. Strength of democracies is to allow protest. Turned against them.

8 Asymmetric techniques within hybrid warfare turning strengths into vulnerabilities Mode of hybrid warfare: Contactless war Military power used mostly as tool to generate psychological effect. Goals will be achieved by using clandestine military operations, information confrontation and special operations. (Gerasimov, 2015) Thus is does not matter how good an adversary state s military is if that state is given no legal excuse to use it. Idea also is not to do anything that will allow the use of action under NATO s Article 5. Strength is turned into vulnerability. Spreads disunity in NATO.

9 Asymmetric techniques within hybrid warfare turning strengths into vulnerabilities Mode of hybrid warfare: Integration Russian hybrid warfare shows close coordination between military and civilian realms synergy (force multiplier). Therefore responses, to be truly effective, have to show a similar coordination. But almost impossible. A great strength of liberal democracies is the separation of powers military and civilian. This is turned into a vulnerability by Russian hybrid warfare.

10 Conclusion Asymmetric warfare seeks to turn the strengths of an opponent into vulnerabilities. Russian hybrid warfare techniques use this asymmetric principle to great advantage. Recognising this is occurring is one thing, but actually countering it is something else it is very difficult.